Who Crossed the Border? Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants in the Early Twentieth Century EDWARD KOSACK AND ZACHARY WARD We estimate the self-selection of Mexican migrants into and out of the United 6WDWHV LQ WKH V 2I¿FLDOV UHFRUGHG PLJUDQW KHLJKW RQ ERUGHU FURVVLQJ manifests, which we use to proxy migrant quality and to measure self-selection into migration in 1920. Migrants were positively selected on height compared to the Mexican population. We link these migrants to the 1930 U.S. and Mexican FHQVXVHV WR REWDLQ VDPSOHV RI SHUPDQHQW DQG UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV DQG WR HVWLPDWH the selection into return migration. Return migrants were not differentially selfselected on height relative to permanent migrants.
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The Journal of Economic History9RO1R 'HFHPEHU 7KH(FRQRPLF+LVWRU\ Association. All rights reserved. doi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etaphone algorithm for linking names. All errors are our own. 1 7KH (PHUJHQF\ ,PPLJUDWLRQ $FW RI DQG ,PPLJUDWLRQ $FW RI SODFHG DQQXDO OLPLWVRQ(XURSHDQPLJUDWLRQZKLOHLPSRVLQJQRUHVWULFWLRQVRQ:HVWHUQ+HPLVSKHUHFRXQWULHV :KLOH0H[LFDQPLJUDQWVZHUHQRWOLPLWHGE\TXRWDVWKH,PPLJUDWLRQ$FWRI GLGUHTXLUH all migrants to pass a literacy test and to pay an eight dollar head tax. World War I also caused a steep drop in migration leading some economists to cite 1913 as the end of the “Age of Mass 0LJUDWLRQ´ +DWWRQDQG:LOOLDPVRQ
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WZHQWLHWKFHQWXU\\HWOLWWOHLVNQRZQDERXWWKRVHZKRGHFLGHGWRPLJUDWH and, among the migrants, those who decided to either stay or return. In this paper we measure the pattern of selection into migration, and then examine whether there is any differential selection into return PLJUDWLRQ %HFDXVH RQO\ VRPH LQGLYLGXDOV DUH ZLOOLQJ WR FURVV ERUGHUV and leave their native land, the economic consequences of the quality of PLJUDQWVUHODWLYHWRWKRVHZKRUHPDLQEHKLQGFRXOGDIIHFWWKHKRPHDQG KRVWHFRQRPLHVWKURXJKPXOWLSOHFKDQQHOV %RUMDV )RUWKH8QLWHG 6WDWHVWKHVSHFL¿FSDWWHUQRIVHOHFWLRQDIIHFWVERWKPLJUDQWDVVLPLODWLRQ &KLVZLFN %RUMDV )HUULH DQGWKHUHWXUQWRPLJUDWLRQ $EUDPLW]N\ HW DO )RU 0H[LFR ZKHWKHU WKRVH OHDYLQJ ZHUH RI higher or lower quality than those staying is important for understanding SRWHQWLDO³EUDLQGUDLQ´ *LEVRQDQG0F.HQ]LH DVZHOODVLQFRPH LQHTXDOLW\ 0F.HQ]LHDQG5DSRSRUW ,IPLJUDQWVZHUHEHWWHUWKDQWKHJHQHUDO0H[LFDQSRSXODWLRQLQWHUPVRI productivity, education, or health, then they were positively self-selected.2 To determine the pattern of selection one can compare the wages that 2 %RUMDV GH¿QHGVHOHFWLRQQRWRQO\LQWHUPVRIFRPSDULQJPLJUDQWV¶ZDJHVWRWKHKRPH FRXQWU\¶VGLVWULEXWLRQEXWDOVRLQWHUPVRIKRZWKH\FRPSDUHGWRWKHKRVWFRXQWU\¶VGLVWULEXWLRQ of wages. We follow the recent direction of the literature comparing migrants only to those in the KRPHFRXQWU\ VHH&KLTXLDUDQG+DQVRQ
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
1017
Mexican migrants would earn in Mexico to the wages of those in Mexico ZKRGRQRWPLJUDWH %RUMDV +RZHYHUPLJUDQWVDQGWKHLUZDJHV DUHW\SLFDOO\RQO\REVHUYHGLQWKHKRVWFRXQWU\$VSULFHVIRUVNLOOVYDU\ from country to country, comparing wages once migrants have crossed WKHERUGHUGRHVQRWJLYHWKHSURSHUFRXQWHUIDFWXDO7HFKQLTXHVXVHGWR FLUFXPYHQW WKLV SUREOHP DQG JHQHUDWH WKH DSSURSULDWH FRPSDULVRQ RI PLJUDQWVDQGQRQPLJUDQWVLQFOXGHSURSHQVLW\VFRUHPDWFKLQJ &KLTXLDU DQG+DQVRQ DQGVLEOLQJ¿[HGHIIHFWV $EUDPLW]N\HWDO )XUWKHULQPDQ\FDVHVLQGLYLGXDOZDJHVDUHQRWNQRZQ6RPHVWXGLHV of historical selection use aggregated measures of human capital, such DVRFFXSDWLRQDOVFRUHVWRFRPSDUHPRYHUVWRVWD\HUV $EUDPLW]N\HWDO &ROOLQVDQG:DQDPDNHU +RZHYHULIRFFXSDWLRQVUHSRUWHG in the historical immigration statistics were not representative of an indiYLGXDO¶VSODFHLQWKHVNLOOGLVWULEXWLRQEHFDXVHPLJUDQWVOLVWHGGRZQJUDGHG RFFXSDWLRQVRQDUULYDOWKDWUHÀHFWHGODERUGHPDQGLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV then these data would systematically underestimate the true quality of a PLJUDQWZRUNHU$GGLWLRQDOO\RFFXSDWLRQDOVFRUHVDUHQRWVSHFL¿FWRWKH individual and do not allow us to look at how migrants differed from the home population within reported occupation or skill class. We use height as an alternative measure of the historical self-selection of Mexican migrants. A long literature argues that greater stature is correODWHG ZLWK KLJKHU HDUQLQJV JUHDWHU LQWHOOLJHQFH DQG LQFUHDVHG KHDOWK LQ RWKHU ZRUGV KHLJKW LV SRVLWLYHO\ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK ³TXDOLW\´ 6WHFNHO 6WHFNHO $PLJUDQW¶VKHLJKWGRHVQRWFKDQJHDVKHFURVVHV WKHERUGHULQWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVXQOLNHRFFXSDWLRQRUZDJHV)XUWKHU KHLJKW JLYHV D SDUWLDO PHDVXUH RI KXPDQ FDSLWDO WKDW LV VSHFL¿F WR WKH individual, important when there is little variation in migrant occupation. 6LQFHWKHYDVWPDMRULW\RI0H[LFDQPLJUDQWVFODLPHGODERUHURUPLQHUDV WKHLURFFXSDWLRQZHDUHDEOHWRGHWHUPLQHLIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVUHFHLYHG WKHEHWWHUODERUHUVRUWKHEHWWHUPLQHUVE\XVLQJKHLJKWGDWD Much of the migration from Mexico to the United States was temporary, and many individuals returned home instead of settling permanently *UDWWRQDQG0HUFKDQW 0HDVXULQJWKHVHOHFWLRQLQWRPLJUDWLRQLV QRWVXI¿FLHQWIRUXQGHUVWDQGLQJWKHHIIHFWRIPLJUDQWVRQWKHODERUIRUFH LQ ERWK 0H[LFR DQG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV VLQFH UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV PLJKW EH GLIIHUHQWLDOO\ VHOIVHOHFWHG %RUMDV DQG %UDWVEHUJ +RZHYHU WKH direction of selection for return migrants is unclear. Return migrants may KDYHEHHQ³WDUJHWHDUQHUV´ZKRPLJUDWHGWRDFFXPXODWHVDYLQJVLQRUGHU WRVWDUWDEXVLQHVVEDFNKRPHPDNLQJWKHGLUHFWLRQRIVHOHFWLRQDPELJXRXV 0HVQDUG 3LRUH 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV FRXOGKDYHEHHQWKRVHZKRXQH[SHFWHGO\IDLOHGLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVODERU
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PDUNHW DQG ZRXOG WKXV EH QHJDWLYHO\ VHOIVHOHFWHG $EUDPLW]N\ HW DO )XUWKHU SUHVVXUH RQ 0H[LFDQV WR OHDYH WKH FRXQWU\ RU GHSRUWDWLRQGULYHVWKDWEHJDQWRRFFXULQWKHODWH VDQG VFRXOGKDYH FKDQJHGWKHTXDOLW\RIUHWXUQPLJUDQWV +RIIPDQ :HXWLOL]HQHZO\FROOHFWHGGDWDIURPLQGLYLGXDOERUGHUPDQLIHVWVIRU PLJUDQWVFURVVLQJWKURXJKERUGHUWRZQVLQ$UL]RQDDQG7H[DVLQ To determine the selection of the migrant population compared to the home population, we compare heights for migrants to samples of heights for soldiers in the military and for those who applied for passports in Mexico.3 +DYLQJHVWLPDWHGWKHVHOIVHOHFWLRQRILQÀRZVZHHVWLPDWHWKH VHOIVHOHFWLRQRIRXWÀRZV7RGRWKLVZHOLQNRXUVDPSOHRIPLJUDQWVZKR FURVVHGWKHERUGHULQ WRWKH 8QLWHG6WDWHV&HQVXVWRFUHDWHD VDPSOHRISHUPDQHQWPLJUDQWVDQGWRWKH 0H[LFDQ&HQVXVWRFUHDWH a sample of return migrants. We compare the heights of each sample to determine the self-selection of return migrants relative to permanent migrants. :H¿QGWKDW0H[LFDQPLJUDQWVLQ ZHUHSRVLWLYHO\VHOIVHOHFWHG RQKHLJKWIURPWKH0H[LFDQSRSXODWLRQ7KH\ZHUHIRXUWR¿YHFHQWLPHWHUVWDOOHUWKDQVROGLHUVLQWKHPLOLWDU\²W\SLFDOO\PHPEHUVRIWKHORZHU class of Mexican society—and they were only one and a half centimeWHUVVKRUWHUWKDQSDVVSRUWKROGHUV²W\SLFDOO\PHPEHUVRIWKHKLJKHUFODVV RI0H[LFDQVRFLHW\ /ySH]$ORQVRDQG&RQGH\ 2XUUHVXOWKROGV within occupational skill class as the United States received the taller ODERUHUVWKHWDOOHUVNLOOHGZRUNHUVDQGWKHWDOOHUSURIHVVLRQDOV:HDOVR ¿QGWKDWDOWKRXJKDVXEVWDQWLDOSURSRUWLRQRI0H[LFDQPLJUDQWVUHWXUQHG KRPH EHWZHHQ DQG SHUFHQW WKHUH ZDV QR GLIIHUHQWLDO VHOI selection on height into return migration. Our measured result of positive VHOHFWLRQIRUPLJUDQWLQÀRZVLVDJRRGSUR[\IRUWKHFKDQJHLQWKHTXDOLW\ of the overall stock of Mexican migrants in the United States in the early twentieth century. 86²0(;,&20,*5$7,21,1
7KHUH LV DQ H[WHQVLYH OLWHUDWXUH RQ WKH KLVWRU\ RI PLJUDWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG 0H[LFR VHH /DZUHQFH &DUGRVR 3DWULFN (WWLQJHU DQG'DYLG*XWLHUUH] IRUDQRYHUYLHZ ,QGHHG Mexican migration patterns transformed dramatically during the early twentieth century. The Mexican Revolution pushed migrants out during 3
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Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
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the 1910s, while the immigration quotas of 1921 and 1924 curtailed XQVNLOOHGODERUIURP(DVWHUQDQG6RXWKHUQ(XURSHLQWKH VDQGSXOOHG 0H[LFDQZRUNHUVLQWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV:HFKRRVH DVDEHQFKPDUN \HDUIDOOLQJDVLWGRHVGLUHFWO\EHWZHHQWKHVHWZRPDMRUHYHQWVWRUHYHDO how the self-selection process operated with limited, confounding institutional factors. While there were some restrictions to entering the country in 1920, SLFNLQJ D \HDU SULRU OHDGV WR VHYHUDO FKDOOHQJHV IRU RXU DQDO\VLV )LUVW PRVWRIWKH¿JKWLQJLQWKH0H[LFDQ5HYROXWLRQRFFXUUHGEHWZHHQ DQG PDNLQJLWGLI¿FXOWWRVHSDUDWHPLJUDQWVPRYLQJIRUHFRQRPLF UHDVRQVYHUVXVWKRVHÀHHLQJDVUHIXJHHV$OWKRXJKVRPHVPDOODPRXQW RI ¿JKWLQJ FRQWLQXHG LQ LW ZDV OLPLWHG WR WKH 1RUWK ZKLOH PRVW of our sample comes from central Mexico. Second, the United States only started to systematically collect immigrant records for individuals FURVVLQJWKH0H[LFDQERUGHULQ DQGWKHSURFHVVZDVQRW¿UPO\LQ SODFHE\ WKH\HDUEHIRUHWKH0H[LFDQ5HYROXWLRQ ,PPLJUDWLRQ$FW RI 6HF 7KH0H[LFDQ5HYROXWLRQDPXOWLVLGHGFRQÀLFWUDJHGGXULQJWKHHDUO\ VDOWKRXJKWKHPDMRU¿JKWLQJVXEVLGHGE\ 4$WWKHEHJLQQLQJ RI WKH 5HYROXWLRQ FRQÀLFW RFFXUUHG WKURXJKRXW 0H[LFR DV UHYROXWLRQDULHVIURPGLIIHUHQWVWDWHVIRXJKWWRRYHUWKURZ3UHVLGHQW'tD]ZLWKWKH PRVWLQWHQVH¿JKWLQJRFFXUULQJEHWZHHQ DQG )ROORZLQJWKH FUHDWLRQRIDQHZFRQVWLWXWLRQLQ PDMRUZDUIDUHVXEVLGHGZLWKRQO\ 3DQFKR 9LOOD VNLUPLVKLQJ LQ VPDOO EDWWOHV LQ WKH 1RUWK %\ PRVW ¿JKWLQJKDOWHGDV9LOODVXUUHQGHUHGDQGÈOYDUR2EUHJyQZDVHOHFWHGWR WKHSUHVLGHQF\ .QLJKW 'XULQJ WKH 5HYROXWLRQ WKRXVDQGV RI 0H[LFDQV WHPSRUDULO\ ÀHG WR WKH8QLWHG6WDWHV 8QLWHG6WDWHV%XUHDXRI,PPLJUDWLRQ $VUHIXJHHV ÀHG GXULQJ WKH 5HYROXWLRQ PLJUDQW ÀRZV EHFDPH PRUH VNLOOHG EHWZHHQ DQG WKHPRVWLQWHQVHSHULRGRI¿JKWLQJ%\WKHHQG RIWKH VKRZHYHUWKHVNLOOPL[RIWKHLQÀRZKDGUHWXUQHGWRSUH 5HYROXWLRQDU\OHYHOV VHH)LJXUH (YHQWKRXJKWKRXVDQGVFURVVHGWKH ERUGHUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDEVRUEHGWKHVHPLJUDQWVHDVLO\DV:RUOG:DU , LQFUHDVHG WKH GHPDQG IRU ODERU 5RFNRII ,Q IDFW LQ WKH United States encouraged temporary Mexican migrants to work in agriFXOWXUH UDLOURDGV DQG PLQLQJ EULHÀ\ VXVSHQGLQJ HQWU\ UHVWULFWLRQV E\ DOORZLQJFRQWUDFWODERUHUVGLVFRQWLQXLQJWKHKHDGWD[DQGZDLYLQJWKH OLWHUDF\UHTXLUHPHQW &DUGHQDV %\ WKRXVDQGVRI0H[LFDQV WUDYHOHGQRUWKZDUG\HDUO\WRHDUQKLJKHUZDJHVRIIHUHGE\HPSOR\HUVLQ 4
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WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVEXWPDQ\RIWKHVHVDPHPLJUDQWVODWHUUHWXUQHGKRPH &ODUN 8QLWHG6WDWHV%XUHDXRI,PPLJUDWLRQ ,QIDFW3DXO 7D\ORU LQ KLV H[WHQVLYH VWXG\ RI 0H[LFDQ PLJUDQWV QRWHV WKDW PDQ\ HPSOR\HUV LQ WKH V SHUFHLYHG 0H[LFDQV WR EH PRUH UHOLDEOH than other workers and attempted to keep them from returning home after the harvest season. $V &RQJUHVV ZDV HQFRXUDJLQJ PLJUDWLRQ WR WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV IURP Mexico, they simultaneously passed qualitative restrictions on migration LQ E\UHTXLULQJPLJUDQWVWREHDEOHWRUHDGDQGZULWHLQWKHLURZQ ODQJXDJHSRWHQWLDOO\OLPLWLQJLOOLWHUDWH0H[LFDQLQGLYLGXDOV+RZHYHUWKH United States did not consistently enforce this law for Mexican migrants, ¿UVWZDLYLQJWKHOLWHUDF\UHTXLUHPHQWLQ DQGUHLVVXLQJWKHZDLYHU
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
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WLPHWRWLPHXQWLO &DUGHQDV &DUGRVR 7KHZDLYLQJRI the literacy test is clear when comparing male migrant literacy rates to WKHVNLOOPL[RILQÀRZVDVZHVKRZLQ)LJXUH3ULRUWRWKHOLWHUDF\WHVW in 1917, literacy and migrant skill level were positively correlated, as H[SHFWHG)ROORZLQJ KRZHYHUWKHPLJUDQWÀRZEHFDPHOHVVVNLOOHG EXWPRUHOLWHUDWH%\ WKHSHUFHQWXQVNLOOHGZDVHYHQKLJKHUWKDQMXVW EHIRUH ZKLOHWKHOLWHUDF\UDWHLQFUHDVHGWR SHUFHQW(YHQZKHQ agricultural workers were waived from the literacy test and head tax, RI¿FLDOVWDWLVWLFVSUREDEO\VWLOOUHFRUGHGWKHPDVOLWHUDWH The literacy test did not appear to restrict migration from Southern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
0LJUDQWVDUHQRWDUDQGRPGUDZIURPWKHLUKRPHFRXQWU\¶VSRSXODWLRQ %RUMDV DUJXHGWKDWZHFDQSUHGLFWWKHGLUHFWLRQRIVHOIVHOHFWLRQ IRU PLJUDQWV EDVHG RQ WKH UHODWLYH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI ZDJHV DFURVV HFRQRPLHV+H¿QGVWKDWLIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVKDVDPRUHXQHTXDOLQFRPHGLVWULEXWLRQWKDQWKHVHQGLQJFRXQWU\WKHQZHFDQH[SHFWSRVLWLYHVHOHFWLRQ into migration to the United States. If the migrants who leave from the KRPHFRXQWU\DUHRQDYHUDJHEHWWHU IRUH[DPSOHPRUHPRWLYDWHGPRUH HGXFDWHGPRUHSURGXFWLYHDQGVRRQ WKDQWKRVHZKRVWD\WKHQWKHVHOI VHOHFWLRQLVSRVLWLYH LIPLJUDQWVDUHZRUVHDORQJWKHVHGLPHQVLRQVWKDQ stayers, then self-selection is negative. 6HOHFWLRQLVLQÀXHQFHGE\WKHYDULDWLRQLQH[SHFWHGEHQH¿WVRIPLJUDWLRQ DFURVV WKH KXPDQ FDSLWDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI SRWHQWLDO PLJUDQWV ,Q WKH HDUO\WZHQWLHWKFHQWXU\WKHEHQH¿WVRIPLJUDWLRQZHUHLPPHGLDWHDVMRE opportunities were plentiful for Mexican workers. In the southwestern United States, many farms, railroads, and mines hired migrants directly DW WKH ERUGHU 8QLWHG 6WDWHV %XUHDX RI ,PPLJUDWLRQ 0H[LFDQV W\SLFDOO\ ZRUNHG LQ WKHVH VHFWRUV LQ WKH 6RXWKZHVW EXW WKURXJKRXW WKH 1920s meatpackers and manufacturers in the Midwest and Northeast
1022
Kosack and Ward
ZRXOG UHFUXLW 0H[LFDQV IURP FLWLHV LQ 7H[DV WR UHSODFH MREV W\SLFDOO\ JLYHQ WR 6RXWKHUQ DQG (DVWHUQ (XURSHDQV 7D\ORU :KLOH ORZ VNLOOHGMREVZHUHUHDGLO\DYDLODEOHKLJKVNLOOHGMREVZHUHQRWDVSUHYDOHQW$OVRZDJHVZHUHKLJKHUIRUWKHVHXQVNLOOHGODERUHUVWKDQLQ0H[LFR VXJJHVWLQJDVLJQL¿FDQWUHWXUQWRPLJUDWLRQIRUXQVNLOOHGODERUHUVZKLFK FRXOGOHDGWRQHJDWLYHVHOIVHOHFWLRQ &ODUN 6HOHFWLRQ LV DOVR LQÀXHQFHG E\ WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ FRVWV RI PLJUDWLRQ DFURVVWKHKXPDQFDSLWDOGLVWULEXWLRQRISRWHQWLDOPLJUDQWV:KLOHKLJK ZDJHVDEURDGPD\HQWLFHDORZVNLOOHGLQGLYLGXDOWRPRYHKLVPRELOLW\ PLJKWEHUHVWULFWHGE\WKHFRVWVRIPRYLQJ IRUH[DPSOHWUDQVSRUWDWLRQ SV\FKRORJLFDOLQIRUPDWLRQDORURSSRUWXQLW\FRVWV &KLTXLDUDQG+DQVRQ H[WHQGWKH%RUMDV PRGHOE\DGGLQJFRVWVWRUHFRQFLOHWKH WKHRUHWLFDO SUHGLFWLRQ WKDW FRQWHPSRUDU\ 0H[LFDQ PLJUDQWV VKRXOG EH negatively self-selected with the empirical evidence that they are intermediately self-selected. This shift in the literature from focusing on the EHQH¿WVRIPLJUDWLRQWRWKHFRVWVRIPLJUDWLRQKDVEHHQXVHGWRH[SODLQ GLIIHUHQWLDOSDWWHUQVRI0H[LFDQPLJUDQWVHOHFWLRQIURPXUEDQDQGUXUDO areas and from places with different intensities of migrant networks )HUQiQGH]+XHUWDV0RUDJD 0F.HQ]LHDQG5DSRSRUW 7KHEHQH¿WVWRPLJUDWLRQZHUHFOHDUEXWKLJKFRVWVPD\KDYHFRQVWUDLQHG individuals from traveling. While improvements in transportation from FHQWUDO0H[LFRWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVERUGHUHVSHFLDOO\WKHFRPSOHWLRQRI the Mexican railroad in the late nineteenth century, lowered the cost of PLJUDWLRQDQGVXEVHTXHQWO\VSXUUHGODUJHZDYHVRIHPLJUDWLRQWKHFRVW RIDWLFNHWIURPFHQWUDO0H[LFRWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVERUGHUZDVVWLOOKLJK IRUSRRUHULQGLYLGXDOV &ODUN &RDWVZRUWK $GGLWLRQDOO\WKH 1917 migration legislation required all migrants to pay an eight dollar head tax. Although the enforcement of this law during 1920 is unclear, if ORZHDUQLQJLQGLYLGXDOVZHUHXQDEOHWR¿QDQFHWKHWULSDEURDGWKHQVHOI VHOHFWLRQFRXOGKDYHEHHQSRVLWLYH :KLOHDKDQGIXORISDSHUVDQDO\]HWKHVHOHFWLRQRIPLJUDQWVIURP(XURSH $EUDPLW]N\HWDO +DWWRQDQG:LOOLDPVRQ 6WRO]DQG %DWHQ OLWWOHLVNQRZQDERXWVHOHFWLRQRI0H[LFDQPLJUDWLRQWRWKH 8QLWHG6WDWHVGXULQJWKHHDUO\WZHQWLHWKFHQWXU\=DGLD)HOLFLDQR is the only paper to our knowledge that explores the historical selfVHOHFWLRQ RI 0H[LFDQ PLJUDQWV ¿QGLQJ WKDW LQ 0H[LFDQV LQ WKH United States had a higher rate of literacy than did the general Mexican SRSXODWLRQ:HH[WHQGKHUUHVXOWVE\LQFRUSRUDWLQJHYLGHQFHRQ LPPLJUDQWVIROORZLQJWKH0H[LFDQ5HYROXWLRQE\XVLQJDPHDVXUH KHLJKW WKDW LV FRQVWDQW DFURVV ERUGHUV DQG E\ H[SORULQJ WKH VHOIVHOHFWLRQ RI
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
1023
return migrants which could alter the quality of the stock of Mexican PLJUDQWVREVHUYHGLQWKHFHQVXV +(,*+7$6$0($685(2)6(/(&7,21
0XOWLSOHPHWULFVRIKXPDQFDSLWDOKDYHEHHQXVHGLQVWXGLHVRIVHOHFWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ LQFRPH &KLTXLDU DQG +DQVRQ VNLOO FODVV +DWWRQ DQG :LOOLDPVRQ RFFXSDWLRQDOVFRUHV $EUDPLW]N\HWDO &ROOLQV DQG:DQDPDNHU DJHKHDSLQJ 6WRO]DQG%DWHQ $¶+HDUQHW DO DQG\HDUVRIHGXFDWLRQDQGOLWHUDF\ )HOLFLDQR :HKDYH no data on the wages and education level of Mexican migrants in 1920, and so we use height to measure the quality of an individual migrant. :KHQLQFRPHDQGZDJHGDWDDUHQRWDYDLODEOHHFRQRPLVWVPXVWUHO\ on other measures to proxy for standard of living. In particular, height DVDPHDVXUHKDVEHHQXVHGVLQFHLWLVSRVLWLYHO\FRUUHODWHGZLWKLQFRPH and improved health and nutrition.5+LJKHUOLYLQJVWDQGDUGVZLWKDPSOH food during childhood increase height, while poor nutrition and health can stunt growth. Not only does the average height of a society indicate overall health DQGZHOOEHLQJEXWWDOOHUSHRSOHDOVRHDUQPRUHWKDQWKHLUVKRUWHUFRXQWHUSDUWVZLWKLQDFRXQWU\)RUH[DPSOH3DXO6FKXOW] VKRZVWKDWD one centimeter increase in height leads to an 8 to 10 percent increase in ZDJHVLQ%UD]LODQG*KDQD7KHUHWXUQWRSK\VLFDOVWUHQJWKLVHVSHFLDOO\ important in developing countries where large sectors of the economy UHO\ RQ WKH SK\VLFDO SURGXFWLYLW\ RI ODERU +HLJKW LV D GHWHUPLQDQW RI ZDJHV LQ WKHVH FRXQWULHV VLQFH ODUJHU DQG VWURQJHU PHQ DV PHDVXUHG E\ %RG\ 0DVV ,QGH[ DUH UHZDUGHG LQ WKH ODERU PDUNHW 7KRPDV DQG 6WUDXVV 0H[LFDQ PLJUDQWV ZRUNHG LQ ODERULQWHQVLYH LQGXVWULHV VXFKDVPLQLQJUDLOURDGFRQVWUXFWLRQDQGIDUPODERUZKHUHLPSURYHG SK\VLRORJ\FRXOGOHDGWRKLJKHUSURGXFWLYLW\ &ODUN 8QLWHG6WDWHV %XUHDXRI,PPLJUDWLRQ 1LFROD3HUVLFR$QGUHZ3RVWOHZDLWHDQG'DQ6LOYHUPDQ DUJXH that higher wages for taller individuals are due to non-cognitive characWHULVWLFV IRUH[DPSOHFRQ¿GHQFH ZKLOHRWKHUV &DVHDQG3D[VRQ 6FKLFNDQG6WHFNHO DUJXHWKDWHDUO\FKLOGKRRGLQSXWVLQWRKHDOWK and nutrition can increase the cognitive functioning of an individual later LQOLIH)RUH[DPSOHWDOOHULQGLYLGXDOVDUHPRUHOLNHO\WRUHPHPEHUWKHLU H[DFWGDWHRIELUWK +XPSKULHVDQG/HXQLJ DQGWDOOHULQGLYLGXDOV 5
6HH6WHFNHO DQG IRUDUHYLHZRIKHLJKWVWXGLHV
1024
Kosack and Ward
VFRUHKLJKHURQHDUO\FKLOGKRRGFRJQLWLYHDQGQRQFRJQLWLYHWHVWV &DVH DQG3D[VRQ (LWKHUZD\WKHHYLGHQFHVXJJHVWVWKDWWDOOHULQGLYLGuals, on average, earn higher wages. If the migrants who arrived in the United States were taller than those who remained in Mexico, then this would indicate a pattern of positive selection for Mexican migrants. '$7$
Border Crossing Manifests To understand exactly who migrated to the United States from Mexico in 1920, we construct a unique dataset from the manifest lists for WKRVHFURVVLQJDWWKHERUGHUWRZQVRI$MR$UL]RQD 'RXJODV$UL]RQD %URZQVYLOOH7H[DV DQG(O3DVR7H[DVLQ ,Q)LJXUHZHVKRZ the geographical coverage of our sample.7+HLJKWZDVUHFRUGHGRQHDFK PDQLIHVWE\ERUGHURI¿FLDOVDQGZDVRIWHQURXQGHGWRWKHQHDUHVWTXDUWHU LQFK,QDGGLWLRQWRKHLJKWPXFKPRUHLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWPLJUDQWVXSRQ DUULYDO ZDV UHFRUGHG RQ WKH PDQLIHVW LQFOXGLQJ GHPRJUDSKLF DJH VH[ PDULWDOVWDWXV JHRJUDSKLF SODFHRI ELUWK SODFH RI ODVW UHVLGHQFH LQWHQGHGGHVWLQDWLRQ HFRQRPLF RFFXSDWLRQVDYLQJV DQGQHWZRUN MRLQ DIULHQGUHODWLYHRUHPSOR\HU GDWD:HFROOHFWDOODYDLODEOHGDWDIRUHDFK DGXOWPDOH \HDUVRUROGHU FODVVL¿HGDVDQLPPLJUDQW8 In total, we KDYHPLFURGDWDIRUPDOHPLJUDQWVZKRFURVVHGWKHERUGHULQ To determine the representativeness of our sample, we compare the characteristics of our migrants with those of similar migrants recorded LQWKH 8QLWHG6WDWHV&HQVXV:HXVHWKHSHUFHQW ,QWHJUDWHG 3XEOLF8VH0LFURGDWD6HULHV ,3806 VDPSOHWRLGHQWLI\PLJUDQWVZKR arrived in the previous year, who were literate, over the age of 18, and male 5XJJOHVHWDO 2XUVDPSOHLVUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRI 1DWLRQDO$UFKLYHV0H[LFDQ%RUGHU&URVVLQJ5HFRUGV³0DQLIHVWVRI$OLHQ$UULYDOVDW$MR /XNHYLOOHDQG6RQR\WD 6RQRLWD $UL]RQD-DQXDU\ ±'HFHPEHU DQGDW/RV(EDQRV 7H[DV'HFHPEHU ±0D\ UROOV ´QR$ ³1RQVWDWLVWLFDO0DQLIHVWVDQG6WDWLVWLFDO ,QGH[&DUGVRI$OLHQV$UULYLQJDW'RXJODV$UL]RQD-XO\ ±'HFHPEHU UROOV ´QR 0 ³6WDWLVWLFDODQG1RQVWDWLVWLFDO0DQLIHVWVRI$OLHQ$UULYDOVDW%URZQVYLOOH7H[DV)HEUXDU\ ±-XQH DQG5HODWHG,QGH[HV UROOV ´QR0 DQG³0DQLIHVWVRI6WDWLVWLFDO$OLHQ $UULYDOVDW(O3DVR7H[DV0D\ ±2FWREHU UROOV ´QR$ 7 7KHUHLVQRV\VWHPDWLFGLIIHUHQFHLQWKHRXWFRPHRILQWHUHVW KHLJKW DFURVVERUGHUWRZQVDIWHU FRQWUROOLQJIRUVWDWHDQGGHFDGHRIELUWK¿[HGHIIHFWVVXJJHVWLQJWKDWKHLJKWVZHUHFRQVLVWHQWO\ PHDVXUHGDFURVVERUGHUVWDWLRQV 8 $QREVHUYDWLRQZDVFROOHFWHGLIDQGRQO\LIWKHLQGLYLGXDO¶VLQWHQGHGOHQJWKRIVWD\ZDVOLVWHG DV SHUPDQHQW RU LQGH¿QLWH WKH ODVW SHUPDQHQW UHVLGHQFH ZDV RXWVLGH RI WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV WKH SODFHRIELUWKZDVRXWVLGHRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQGWKH¿QDOGHVWLQDWLRQZDVZLWKLQWKH8QLWHG States.
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
1025
FIGURE 3 /2&$7,21 2)%25'(56 5 7$7,216 $1'5(*,216 ,10(;,&2 Notes $GGLWLRQDOERUGHUVWDWLRQVZHUHORFDWHGLQ/XNHYLOOH$= 1DFR$= 1RJDOHV$= 6DVDEH $= 6RQR\WD $= &ROXPEXV 10 $QGUDGH &$ 6DQ
skills for migrants recorded in the census with no statistical difference in occupational mix.9 There is also no difference in marital status, although RXU VDPSOH LV DERXW WZR \HDUV \RXQJHU DQG RYHUUHSUHVHQWHG E\ SHRSOH moving to Texas.10 9
5HVXOWVIRUWKHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHQHVVRIWKHVDPSOHDUHDYDLODEOHDWKWWSV VLWHVJRRJOHFRPVLWH HGZDUGNRVDFNUHVHDUFKDQGKWWSV VLWHVJRRJOHFRPVLWH]DFKDZDUGUHVHDUFK 10 7KHIDFWWKDWRXUVDPSOHLVRYHUUHSUHVHQWHGE\SHRSOHKHDGHGWR7H[DVLVDQDUWLIDFWRIWKH PDMRULW\RILWEHLQJUHFRUGHGIURPWKH(O3DVRDQG%URZQVYLOOHERUGHUVWDWLRQV
Kosack and Ward
Our dataset captures only documented migrants.11 Although Louis %ORFK LQ D FRPSDULVRQ RI FHQVXV QXPEHUV ZLWK QHW PLJUDWLRQ ÀRZVHVWLPDWHVWKDWXQGRFXPHQWHGHQWULHVFRXOGKDYHEHHQVXEVWDQWLDO for the decade from 1910 to 1920, he also admits that there is a lack of UHOLDEOHLQIRUPDWLRQWRPDNHDVWXG\RIWKLVSRSXODWLRQIHDVLEOH7REH SUHFLVHRXUUHVXOWVDSSO\WRWKRVHPLJUDQWVZKRFURVVHGWKURXJKRI¿FLDO ERUGHUFURVVLQJVWDWLRQVDQGQRWQHFHVVDULO\WRDOOPLJUDQWV 7KHERUGHUFURVVLQJGDWDDOORZXVWRFUHDWHDSUR¿OHIRUWKH³W\SLFDO´ GRFXPHQWHGPDOHPLJUDQWZKRFURVVHGWKHERUGHUIURP0H[LFRWRWKH 8QLWHG6WDWHVLQ DVVKRZQLQ7DEOH0DOHPLJUDQWVWRWKH8QLWHG 6WDWHV ZHUH RQ DYHUDJH \HDUV ROG HTXDOO\ OLNHO\ WR EH PDUULHG DV VLQJOHDQGDOPRVWXQLYHUVDOO\UHFRUGHGDVOLWHUDWH,Q)LJXUHZHVKRZ WKHUHJLRQDOFODVVL¿FDWLRQZHXVHIRUWKHVWDWHRIELUWK12 Immigrants came most often from central and northern Mexico, with very few coming from the southern states.13 $ ODUJH SRUWLRQ RI RXU PLJUDQWV ZHUH ERUQ LQ WKH 0H[LFDQ VWDWHV RI &KLKXDKXD *XDQDMXDWR DQG -DOLVFR ZKLFK DUH VWLOO KLJKVHQGLQJVWDWHVWRGD\DQGPRVWUHSRUWHGD¿QDOGHVWLQDWLRQRI7H[DV Only 14 percent of migrants in the sample reported meeting someone IULHQGUHODWLYHRUHPSOR\HU XSRQHQWU\PXFKORZHUWKDQ(XURSHDQVLQ ZLWKSHUFHQWRI*HUPDQV SHUFHQWRI,WDOLDQVDQG SHUFHQWRI *UHHNVMRLQLQJDQHWZRUNXSRQDUULYDO14 On average, Mexican migrants EURXJKW DFURVVWKHERUGHU We classify migrants as unskilled, skilled, or professional workers EDVHG RQ WKHLU UHSRUWHG RFFXSDWLRQ15 7KH PDMRULW\ DERXW SHUFHQW RI LPPLJUDQWV LQ WKH VDPSOH ZHUH XQVNLOOHG ,W LV EHFDXVH RI WKLV ODFN of variation in skill class that occupational rankings yield little informaWLRQLQGHWHUPLQLQJVHOIVHOHFWLRQ+HLJKWDOORZVXVWRH[DPLQHZKHWKHU PLJUDQWV ZLWKLQ D JLYHQ RFFXSDWLRQDO FODVV ZHUH EHWWHU RU ZRUVH WKDQ non-migrants remaining in Mexico. 11 Migrating to the United States was not technically illegal until later in the 1920s, when the 8QLWHG 6WDWHV JRYHUQPHQW FUHDWHG WKH %RUGHU 3DWURO LQ DQ DWWHPSW WR VWRS 0H[LFDQV DQG RWKHU (XURSHDQHWKQLFLWLHVWKDWWULHGWRHQWHUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVWKURXJKWKHVRXWK )RHUVWHU 1JDL 7KH%RUGHU3DWUROEHJDQLQ ZLWKDIRUFHRIPHPEHUV &DUWHUHWDO7DEOH $G 12 :HIROORZWKHVDPHUHJLRQRIELUWKFODVVL¿FDWLRQDV/ySH]$ORQVRDQG&RQGH\ WR PDLQWDLQFRQVLVWHQF\DFURVVVDPSOHV$FRPPRQELUWKSODFHIRUDPLJUDQWFURVVLQJDW(O3DVRZDV *XDGDODMDUD-DOLVFR7KLVUHSUHVHQWVDMRXUQH\RIDERXWNLORPHWHUV 13 It is well noted that the construction of the Mexican railroad helped transport Mexicans to the 8QLWHG6WDWHV+RZHYHUWKHUDLOURDGGLGQRWUHDFKWKHVRXWKHUQVWDWHVEHORZ9HUDFUX]E\ ZKLFKH[SODLQVZK\IHZRIRXUREVHUYDWLRQVDUHIURPWKHVRXWKHUQ0H[LFDQVWDWHV 14 %DVHGRQDXWKRUV¶FDOFXODWLRQVIURPWKH5HSRUWRIWKH&RPPLVVLRQHU*HQHUDORI,PPLJUDWLRQ 15 :HIROORZ/ySH]$ORQVR¶V RFFXSDWLRQDOFODVVL¿FDWLRQ
1027
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
TABLE 1 6800$5<67$7,67,&6 )25 5 0,*5$170,/,7$5< $1'3$6632576$03/(6 Migrant Sample
Military Sample
3DVVSRUW6DPSOH
+HLJKW FHQWLPHWHUV
170.15
$JHDWPHDVXUHPHQW \HDUV
28.37
Unskilled
0.87 0.10
0.77 0.21
— — — —
3URIHVVLRQDO
0.03
0.02
— —
Literate
0.99
— —
— —
Married
0.49
— —
— —
Single
0.48
— —
— —
Widowed
0.02
— —
— —
+HDGHGWR&DOLIRUQLD
0.07
— —
— —
+HDGHGWR7H[DV
0.81
— —
— —
+HDGHGWR$UL]RQD
0.08
— —
— —
North
0.22
0.19
— —
%DMLR
0.75
0.30
— —
&HQWHU
0.03
0.40
— —
South
0.00
0.11
— —
Meeting no one
— —
— —
Meeting friend
0.01
— —
— —
Meeting relative
0.13
— —
— —
&DVKRQKDQG
38.73
— —
— —
3,884
1,249
9DULDEOH
Skilled
2EVHUYDWLRQV
Notes: 6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVDUHLQSDUHQWKHVHV3URSRUWLRQVDUHUHSRUWHGXQOHVVRWKHUZLVHQRWHG Source %RUGHUFURVVLQJPDQLIHVWVDQG/ySH]$ORQVR
1028
Kosack and Ward
Comparison Samples: Military and Passport Data 7RPDNHDQLQIHUHQFHDERXWWKHVHOHFWLRQRIPLJUDQWVIURP0H[LFRZH need to compare the heights of migrants to those living within Mexico. +HUHZHXVHWZRGLVWLQFWVDPSOHV²PLOLWDU\VROGLHUVDQGSDVVSRUWKROGHUV +RZDUG%RGHQKRUQ7LPRWK\*XLQQDQHDQG7KRPDV0UR] ZDUQ that samples of historical heights are likely selected, which could lead to LQFRUUHFWLQIHUHQFHVDERXWWKHXQGHUO\LQJSRSXODWLRQ:HDFNQRZOHGJH WKDWERWKRIWKHVHVDPSOHVDUHQRWUHSUHVHQWDWLYHDVWKHPLOLWDU\VDPSOH LV IURP WKH ORZHU SDUW RI WKH KHLJKW GLVWULEXWLRQ RI 0H[LFR DQG SDVVSRUWUHFRUGVDUHIURPWKHXSSHUSDUWRIWKHKHLJKWGLVWULEXWLRQRI0H[LFR /ySH]$ORQVR /ySH]$ORQVRDQG&RQGH\ +RZHYHU E\FRPSDULQJPLJUDQWVWRERWKVDPSOHVDQGGHWHUPLQLQJZKLFKVDPSOH PLJUDQWVPRVWFORVHO\UHVHPEOHZHFDQLQIHUZKHWKHUPLJUDQWVZHUHSRVLtively or negatively selected. The Secretaría Nacional de la Defensa houses federal military records in the Archivo de Concentración, recording deceased soldiers in the Sección de Personal Extinto and deserters in the Sección de Cancelados /ySH]$ORQVR DQG &RQGH\ Since the military did not have required service until 1939, only those who made the choice to join the military appear in the data. &KDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHPLOLWDU\VDPSOHDUHDOVROLVWHGLQ7DEOH:H show that 77 percent of military males were in unskilled occupations and that individuals were well represented across different regions of 0H[LFR$W¿UVWJODQFHWKHPLOLWDU\VDPSOHDSSHDUVWREHKLJKHUVNLOOHG than the migrant group, since 87 percent of migrants were unskilled compared to 77 percent of individuals in the military, implying negaWLYHVHOIVHOHFWLRQ+RZHYHUPLJUDQWVPD\KDYHUHSRUWHGLQWHQGHGRFFXpation rather than previous occupation, leaving their true position in WKH VNLOO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI 0H[LFR XQFOHDU ,PSRUWDQWO\ D FRPSDULVRQ RI DYHUDJHKHLJKWUHYHDOVWKDWPLJUDQWVZHUHQHDUO\¿YHFHQWLPHWHUVWDOOHU WKDQWKRVHLQWKHPLOLWDU\:HLOOXVWUDWHWKLVFRPSDULVRQLQ)LJXUHE\ VKRZLQJ WKDW WKH HVWLPDWHG KHLJKW GLVWULEXWLRQ IRU WKH PLJUDQW VDPSOH OLHVZHOOWRWKHULJKWRIWKHHVWLPDWHGKHLJKWGLVWULEXWLRQIRUWKHPLOLWDU\ sample. %LUWK UHFRUGV GLG QRW EHFRPH ZLGHO\ DYDLODEOH XQWLO WKH V VR WKH PLOLWDU\ NHSW WUDFN RI PHPEHUV ZKR PLJKW SRWHQWLDOO\ GHVHUW E\ UHFRUGLQJ WKHLU KHLJKW SODFH RI ELUWK DJH DQG occupation. The Sección de Cancelados FRQWDLQVLQIRUPDWLRQRQPHPEHUVRIWKHPLOLWDU\ZKR GHVHUWHGWKHDUP\EHIRUHWKHLUVHUYLFHWLPHHQGHGDQGWKHSección de Personal Extinto contains LQGLYLGXDOVZKRGLHGLQVHUYLFHRUUHWLUHGDQGWKHQGLHGDIWHUZDUGV /ySH]$ORQVR 7KH PDMRULW\RIWKHPLOLWDU\GDWDLVIRULQGLYLGXDOVZKRMRLQHGWKH0H[LFDQ$UP\EHWZHHQ DQG 1935.
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
1029
FIGURE 4 +(,*+76 ,00,*5$17662/',(56$1' 3$663257 $33/,&$176 Notes 2EVHUYDWLRQVEHORZFPLQKHLJKWDUHGURSSHGDOWKRXJKUHVXOWVDUHXQFKDQJHGLIWKH\ are included. Source 0LJUDQW KHLJKWV DUH IURP ERUGHU FURVVLQJ PDQLIHVWV 6ROGLHU DQG SDVVSRUW DSSOLFDQW KHLJKWVDUHIURP/ySH]$ORQVR
We also compare migrants to a sample of passport applications IURP 0H[LFR FROOHFWHG E\ /ySH]$ORQVR IURP WKH Archivo de Pasaportes. Unfortunately, this sample only includes age and does not JLYHUHJLRQRIELUWKRUVNLOOFODVVL¿FDWLRQV+HLJKWZDVQRWPHDVXUHGIRU SDVVSRUWVEXWZDVVHOIUHSRUWHGSRVVLEO\FUHDWLQJDQXSZDUGELDVVLQFH KHLJKWWHQGVWREHRYHUUHSRUWHG 6SHQFHUHWDO 6XPPDU\VWDWLVWLFV LQ7DEOHVKRZWKDWSDVVSRUWDSSOLFDQWVZHUHRQO\DERXWRQHDQGDKDOI FHQWLPHWHUVWDOOHUWKDQWKRVHLPPLJUDWLQJWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV,Q)LJXUH ZHVKRZWKDWWKHHVWLPDWHGKHLJKWGLVWULEXWLRQIRUWKHPLJUDQWVDPSOHOLHV YHU\FORVHWRWKHHVWLPDWHGKHLJKWGLVWULEXWLRQIRUWKHSDVVSRUWVDPSOH :KLOH WKH DYHUDJH PLJUDQW ZDV QHDUO\ ¿YH FHQWLPHWHUV WDOOHU WKDQ WKH DYHUDJHPHPEHURIWKHPLOLWDU\KHZDVVLPLODULQKHLJKWWRWKHDYHUDJH passport applicant. (67,0$7,1*6(/)6(/(&7,21,1720,*5$7,21
:HXWLOL]HDOLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOWRH[SORUHWKHSDWWHUQRIVHOHFWLRQDPRQJ0H[LFDQPLJUDQWVLQ DVPHDVXUHGE\PLJUDQWKHLJKW $OWKRXJKWKHDQDO\VLVRIWKHHVWLPDWHGGHQVLWLHVLQ)LJXUHVXJJHVWVD
1030
Kosack and Ward
SDWWHUQRISRVLWLYHVHOHFWLRQLWLVSRVVLEOHWKDWJUHDWHUVWDWXUHLVVLPSO\ correlated with other characteristics that are more prevalent in the PLJUDQWVDPSOHVXFKDVDSDUWLFXODUUHJLRQRIELUWK7KXVZHHVWLPDWH (TXDWLRQ WRFRQWUROIRUPDQ\RIWKHVHDGGLWLRQDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVWKDW could confound our positive selection result. eXi + Ji Heighti = G0 + G1Migranti + IeX
$QLQGLYLGXDO¶VKHLJKWLVUHJUHVVHGRQDFRQVWDQWDQLQGLFDWRUYDULDEOHIRU whether or not the individual is from the migrant sample, and a vector of FRQWUROV)LQDODGXOWKHLJKWPD\QRWEHUHDFKHGXQWLO\HDUVRIDJHDQG VRLQGLYLGXDOVZKRDUHEHWZHHQDQG\HDUVPLJKWVWLOOEHJURZLQJ :H LQFOXGH GXPP\ YDULDEOHV IRU DJH ELQV RI ± \HDUV DQG ± years in order to account for this pattern.17 We also include controls for GHFDGHRIELUWKWRDFFRXQWIRUDQ\FRQGLWLRQVWKDWPD\KDYHDIIHFWHGWKH KHLJKWRIDOOWKRVHERUQLQ0H[LFRGXULQJWKRVHWLPHV18 )XUWKHUPRUHZH include geographic controls to account for any spatial pattern in Mexican heights.19 )LQDOO\ZHLQFOXGHYDULDEOHVIRURFFXSDWLRQDOVNLOOFODVVZKLFK DOORZVXVWRGHVFULEHKRZPLJUDQWVGLIIHUHGIURPRWKHUVZLWKLQVNLOOFODVV Results of the selection regressions comparing the sample of male migrants to the sample of males in the Mexican military are presented in 7DEOH&ROXPQV ± )LUVWRXUHVWLPDWHVUHYHDOH[SHFWHGSDWWHUQVLQ KHLJKWV)RUH[DPSOHDGXOWVLQWKH±\HDUDJHELQZHUHVKRUWHUWKDQ DGXOWVRYHU\HDUVROGZKLOHWKRVHLQWKH±\HDUDJHELQZHUHRQO\ VOLJKWO\ VKRUWHU DQG WKH GLIIHUHQFH ORVHV VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQL¿FDQFH FRQVLVtent with human growth patterns. Also, those in the skilled class were taller than those in the unskilled class, while those in the professional class were taller than individuals in either of the other two occupational skill classes, supporting the claim that height is correlated with income, SURGXFWLYLW\DQGFRJQLWLYHDELOLW\6HFRQGWKHUHVXOWRISRVLWLYHVHOHFWLRQ DV PHDVXUHG E\ KHLJKW KROGV LQ HDFK RI WKHVH VSHFL¿FDWLRQV ZLWK WKHPLJUDQWVDPSOHPHDVXULQJIRXUWR¿YHFHQWLPHWHUVWDOOHUWKDQWKRVH individuals in the military sample. Migrants were taller than those in the PLOLWDU\ HYHQ WKRXJK WKH\ UHSRUWHG ORZHUVNLOOHG RFFXSDWLRQV )LQDOO\ LQ&ROXPQ ZHVKRZWKDWPLJUDQWVZHUHWDOOHUWKDQWKRVHLQWKHPLOLtary within occupational skill class. Although the descriptive statistics The results are qualitatively similar in regressions that exclude those under 24 years of age. 5HVXOWVDUHUREXVWWRWKHLQFOXVLRQRIELUWK\HDU¿[HGHIIHFWV 19 )RUH[DPSOHWKRVHERUQLQWKH1RUWKUHJLRQDUHVLJQL¿FDQWO\WDOOHUWKDQWKRVHLQRWKHUUHJLRQV FRQVLVWHQWZLWKDGLHWULFKHULQSURWHLQZKLFKOHDGVWRWDOOHULQGLYLGXDOV 6WHFNHO 17 18
1031
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
TABLE 2 6(/(&7,215(*5(66,216&203$5,1*0,*5$176 72 7+(0,/,7$5< $1'3$6632576$03/(6 &RPSDULVRQ Sample:
Military
Military
Military
Military
3DVVSRUW
3DVVSRUW
Migrant
4.831***
4.118***
±
±
$JH±\HDUV
— —
±
±
±
— —
±
$JH±\HDUV
— —
±
±
±
— —
0.200
'HFDGHRIELUWK
— —
0.352
±
±
— —
±
'HFDGHRIELUWK
— —
±
±
±
— —
±
'HFDGHRIELUWK
— —
±
±
±
— —
±
'HFDGHRIELUWK
— —
±
±
±
— —
0.184
'HFDGHRIELUWK
— —
±
±
±
— —
0.491
%RUQ&HQWHUUHJLRQ
— —
— —
1.033***
— —
— —
%RUQ%DMLRUHJLRQ
— —
— —
— —
— —
%RUQ1RUWKUHJLRQ
— —
— —
4.300***
— —
— —
Skilled
— —
— —
— —
0.924***
— —
— —
3URIHVVLRQDO
— —
— —
— —
1.830***
— —
— —
170.1***
Observations
7,555
7,555
7,555
7,555
4,920
4,920
R-squared
0.124
0.138
0.165
0.169
0.010
0.014
&RQVWDQW
6LJQL¿FDQWDWWKHSHUFHQWOHYHO
6LJQL¿FDQWDWWKHSHUFHQWOHYHO
6LJQL¿FDQWDWWKHSHUFHQWOHYHO Notes 5REXVWVWDQGDUGHUURUVDUHLQSDUHQWKHVHV7KHRPLWWHGFDWHJRULHVDUHWKRVHRYHUDJHWKRVHERUQ SULRUWRWKRVHERUQLQWKH6RXWKUHJLRQDQGXQVNLOOHGZRUNHUV Source: %RUGHUFURVVLQJPDQLIHVWVDQG/ySH]$ORQVR
1032
Kosack and Ward
show that those who chose to migrate tended to come from lower-skilled RFFXSDWLRQVZH¿QGWKDWZLWKLQVNLOOFODVVWKHLQGLYLGXDOVZKRPLJUDWHG WHQGHGWREHWDOOHUWKDQWKRVHZKRZHUHLQWKHPLOLWDU\ :H DOVR SUHVHQW LQ 7DEOH WKH UHVXOWV RI VHOHFWLRQ UHJUHVVLRQV comparing the sample of male migrants to the sample of males applying IRU0H[LFDQSDVVSRUWVLQ&ROXPQV DQG &ROXPQ DJDLQVKRZV D VLPSOH FRPSDULVRQ RI PHDQV EHWZHHQ PLJUDQWV DQG SDVVSRUW DSSOLFDQWV ZKLOH &ROXPQ LQFOXGHV FRQWUROV IRU DJHV OHVV WKDQ \HDUV DQGGHFDGHRIELUWK7KRVHLQWKHPLJUDQWVDPSOHZHUHRQDYHUDJHMXVW under a centimeter and a half shorter than those in the passport sample. *LYHQWKDWWKHGLIIHUHQFHLQKHLJKWLVTXLWHVPDOODQGWKHIDFWWKDWWKRVH KROGLQJSDVVSRUWVSUREDEO\FDPHIURPWKHXSSHUHQGRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQ in Mexican society, this is additional evidence consistent with a pattern of positive selection into Mexican migration in 1920. Robustness Checks :H SUHVHQW DOWHUQDWLYH VSHFL¿FDWLRQV LQ 7DEOH WR DGGUHVV FRQFHUQV DERXW WKH 0H[LFDQ 5HYROXWLRQ DQG WKH HIIHFW RI WKH OLWHUDF\ WHVW UHTXLUHPHQW ,W LV SRVVLEOH WKDW WKH VHOIVHOHFWLRQ UHVXOW LV QRW GXH WR HFRQRPLF IRUFHV EXW UDWKHU EHFDXVH RI UHIXJHHV ÀHHLQJ WKH 0H[LFDQ 5HYROXWLRQ:HWHVWIRUGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHSDWWHUQRIVHOHFWLRQE\UHJLRQRI ELUWKWRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHUSRVLWLYHVHOHFWLRQZDVVWURQJHVWLQWKH1RUWK ZKHUH¿JKWLQJFRQWLQXHGDQGVKRZWKHUHVXOWVLQ7DEOH6LPLODUWRWKH UHVXOWIRXQGIRUWKHZKROHVDPSOHLQWKHPDLQVSHFL¿FDWLRQPLJUDQWVERUQ in the northern parts of Mexico were just over four centimeters taller than QRQPLJUDQWVDQGGLGQRWH[KLELWDQDEQRUPDORUH[WUDRUGLQDU\SDWWHUQRI selection that would give cause for concern. ,W LV SRVVLEOH WKDW WKH SDWWHUQ RI SRVLWLYH VHOHFWLRQ UHVXOWHG IURP WKH OLWHUDF\ WHVW LPSRVHG LQ ZKLFK FRXOG KDYH EDUUHG ORZTXDOLW\ Mexican migrants. While the degree of enforcement of the literacy test for 0H[LFDQPLJUDQWVLQ LVDPELJXRXVDVGLVFXVVHGHDUOLHUZHFRPSDUH RXU VDPSOH RI PLJUDQWV WR D VXEVDPSOH RI PLOLWDU\ GHVHUWHUV IRU ZKRPZHKDYHOLWHUDF\GDWDUHFRJQL]LQJWKDWWKHUHLVDGLIIHUHQFHLQKRZ literacy is determined in the migrant and military samples. The literacy test required the migrant to read and write a paragraph of 25 words in D ODQJXDJH RI KLV FKRRVLQJ *ROGLQ ZKLOH OLWHUDF\ LQ WKH PLOLWDU\VDPSOHZDVGHWHUPLQHGE\ZKHWKHUWKHVROGLHUFRXOGVLJQKLVQDPH /ySH]$ORQVRDQG&RQGH\ 2XU¿QGLQJWKDWPLJUDQWVZHUHSRVLtively selected still holds when comparing literate samples, and literate migrants were more than three centimeters taller than their counterparts in the military.
1033
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants TABLE 3 $/7(51$7,9(6$03/(63(&,),&$7,216 )25 5 0,*5$176(/(&7,21 5(*5(66,216 6DPSOH6SHFL¿FDWLRQ
Migrant
6DPSOH6SHFL¿FDWLRQ
Migrant
%DVHOLQH
Only literate
Only North region
Only unskilled
4.015***
2QO\%DMLRUHJLRQ
3.740***
Only skilled
4.294***
2QO\&HQWHUUHJLRQ
Only professional
5.274***
Only South region
—
— —
6LJQL¿FDQWDWWKHSHUFHQWOHYHO
6LJQL¿FDQWDWWKHSHUFHQWOHYHO
6LJQL¿FDQWDWWKHSHUFHQWOHYHO Notes 5REXVWVWDQGDUGHUURUVDUHLQSDUHQWKHVHV7KHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHLQHDFKUHJUHVVLRQLV KHLJKW(DFKUHJUHVVLRQLQFOXGHVWKHIXOOVHWRIFRQWUROVIRUDJHORFDWLRQRIELUWKDQGRFFXSDWLRQ EXWRQO\WKHFRHI¿FLHQWRQPLJUDQWLVUHSRUWHG7KHFRPSDULVRQJURXSLVWKHPLOLWDU\VDPSOH Source %RUGHUFURVVLQJPDQLIHVWVDQG/ySH]$ORQVR
Our results indicate that documented migrants to the United States in ZHUHSRVLWLYHO\VHOIVHOHFWHGIURPWKHKRPHGLVWULEXWLRQEXWGRQRW DFFRXQW IRU XQGRFXPHQWHG HQWU\ %ORFK HVWLPDWHV WKDW URXJKO\ 111,000 undocumented individuals entered the United States over the decade ending in 1920.208VLQJWKLVQXPEHULQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKWKHRI¿FLDOVWDWLVWLFVIRUPLJUDWLRQLQWKH VDEDFNRIWKHHQYHORSHFDOFXODtion suggests that the average undocumented migrant would need to have EHHQ FHQWLPHWHUV WDOO FHQWLPHWHUV VKRUWHU WKDQ WKH DYHUDJH male in the military and 14.5 centimeter shorter than the average docuPHQWHGPLJUDQW WRHUDVHWKHKHLJKWDGYDQWDJHRYHUWKHPLOLWDU\21 This means that even though institutional constraints could cause negatively VHOIVHOHFWHGLQGLYLGXDOVWRPLJUDWHXQRI¿FLDOO\LWLVXQOLNHO\WKDWXQGRFumented migration would cause a reversal of our positive selection result. 20 7KLVHVWLPDWHLQ%ORFK LVEDVHGRQHVWLPDWHVRIWKH0H[LFDQERUQSRSXODWLRQLQWKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV IRXQG LQ RI¿FLDO VWDWLVWLFV 7KH 0H[LFDQERUQ SRSXODWLRQ XVHG LV YHU\ VLPLODU WR HVWLPDWHVPDGHIURP,3806PLFURGDWD *XWPDQQHWDO *UDWWRQDQG0HUFKDQW 21 7KHRI¿FLDOPLJUDWLRQVWDWLVWLFVIRUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVVKRZWKDW LQGLYLGXDOVHQWHUHG WKHFRXQWU\OHJDOO\IURP0H[LFRIURP WR 7KXVWKHWRWDOÀRZIURP0H[LFRIRUWKH GHFDGHZDVZLWKXQGRFXPHQWHGHQWUDQWVDFFRXQWLQJIRUSHUFHQWDQGGRFXPHQWHG HQWUDQWVDFFRXQWLQJIRUSHUFHQWRIWKDWÀRZ,IZHXVHDZHLJKWHGDYHUDJHRIGRFXPHQWHG and undocumented migrants to measure selection, we can calculate how short the average XQGRFXPHQWHGPLJUDQWZRXOGQHHGWREHWRHUDVHWKHFHQWLPHWHUDGYDQWDJHRYHUWKHPLOLWDU\
1034
Kosack and Ward $&&2817,1*)255(78510,*5$7,21
Selection into Return Migration 0HDVXULQJMXVWWKHVHOHFWLRQLQWRPLJUDWLRQLVQRWVXI¿FLHQWWRXQGHUstand its long-term impact, especially when return migration was prevDOHQW DV LQ WKH FDVH RI 0H[LFR (YHQ WKRXJK PLJUDQWV ZHUH SRVLWLYHO\ VHOIVHOHFWHG IURP WKH 0H[LFDQ SRSXODWLRQ UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV FRXOG EH differentially selected from the overall set of migrants, changing the quality of the stock of migrants that remained in the United States permaQHQWO\ DQG WKH TXDOLW\ RI WKH VWRFN RI ODERU LQ 0H[LFR %RUMDV %RUMDVDQG%UDWVEHUJ Whether migrants who made the decision to return were positively RU QHJDWLYHO\ VHOIVHOHFWHG IURP WKH PLJUDQW SRSXODWLRQ LV DPELJXRXV 2QHSRVVLELOLW\LVWKDWPRVWPLJUDQWVZHUH³WDUJHWHDUQHUV´DQGUHWXUQHG ZKHQ HQRXJK ZDV VDYHG WR LQYHVW LQ FDSLWDO EDFN KRPH OHDYLQJ WKHLU TXDOLW\UHODWLYHWRSHUPDQHQWPLJUDQWVXQFOHDU 0HVQDUG $QJHOXFFL $OWHUQDWLYHO\LIUHWXUQPLJUDQWVZHUHWKRVHZKRIDLOHGLQWKHODERU PDUNHW $EUDPLW]N\HWDO WKHQUHWXUQPLJUDQWVZRXOGKDYHEHHQ negatively self-selected. $QRWKHUSRVVLELOLW\LVWKDWUHWXUQPLJUDQWVGLGQRWPDNHWKHGHFLVLRQ RQWKHLURZQDQGZHUHQRWYROXQWDULO\³VHOI´VHOHFWHGEXWZHUHIRUFLEO\ UHPRYHGE\IHGHUDORI¿FLDOVDVWKHODERUPDUNHWWLJKWHQHGDWWKHRQVHW RIWKH*UHDW'HSUHVVLRQ+LVWRULDQVKDYHSODFHGHPSKDVLVRQWKHLQMXVtices surrounding mass deportations of Mexicans, with some estimating that more than one million Mexicans, including children and U.S. citi]HQVOHIWWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVHLWKHUIRUFLEO\RUXQGHUWKHWKUHDWRIUHPRYDO %DOGHUUDPDDQG5RGULJXH] 7KHUHLVDGHEDWHKRZHYHURYHUWKH VL]H RI WKH GUDPDWLF IDOO LQ WKH 0H[LFDQ SRSXODWLRQ GXULQJ WKH V and whether the decrease was due to deportation or voluntary departure *UDWWRQDQG0HUFKDQW 7D\ORU 0XFKRIWKHPDVVGHSDUWXUH FRXOGVLPSO\KDYHEHHQDUHVXOWRIWKHZRUVHQLQJHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQV 0RVW RI WKLV PDVVLYH RXWÀRZ RI 0H[LFDQV RFFXUUHG ODWHU GXULQJ WKH VRXWVLGHWKH\HDUVRIWKLVVWXG\EXWWKHUHZDVDVLJQL¿FDQWVRXWKZDUGPRYHPHQWLQWKHODWH V6RPHRIWKLVRXWZDUGÀRZZDVGXHWR RI¿FLDOGHSRUWDWLRQVXQGHUZDUUDQWVZKLFKLQFUHDVHGDOPRVWSHUFHQW IURP LQ WR LQ 5HSRUWV RI WKH &RPPLVVLRQHU *HQHUDO RI ,PPLJUDWLRQ 7KLV QXPEHU RI GHSRUWDWLRQV LQ ZDVODUJHUWKDQWKH 0H[LFDQVOHDYLQJYROXQWDULO\DFFRUGLQJ WR 86 VWDWLVWLFV 0H[LFDQ VWDWLVWLFV ZKLFK DUH PRUH UHOLDEOH WKDQ 86 GDWD VXJJHVW WKDW GHSRUWDWLRQV PD\ QRW KDYH EHHQ DV LPSRUWDQW
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
1035
According to Mexican sources, 70,129 individuals returned during 1930, PDNLQJRI¿FLDOGHSRUWDWLRQVDPXFKVPDOOHUSHUFHQWDJHRIWRWDOUHSDWULDWLRQV +RIIPDQ 7D\ORU 22 +RZHYHU PDQ\ PRUH 0H[LFDQV PD\ KDYH OHIW XQGHU WKH WKUHDW RI GHSRUWDWLRQ UDWKHU WKDQ EHLQJ OHJDOO\ GHSRUWHG$OWKRXJKWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIGHSRUWDWLRQVLVXQGHUGHEDWHWKH VHOHFWLRQ RI UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV RQ KHLJKW FRXOG EH DOWHUHG E\ GHSRUWDWLRQ SUHVVXUHVGHSHQGLQJRQZKRZDVSUHVVXUHGWROHDYHRUIRUFLEO\UHPRYHG Linked Sample To estimate the selection of return migrants, we link our sample of PLJUDQWVIRUZDUGWRWKH 8QLWHG6WDWHV&HQVXVIRUDVDPSOH RISHUPDQHQWPLJUDQWVDQGIRUZDUGWRWKH 0H[LFDQ&HQVXVWRJHW DVDPSOHRIUHWXUQPLJUDQWV7KHOLQNWRWKH 8QLWHG6WDWHV&HQVXV LVEDVHGRQIRXUFKDUDFWHULVWLFV ¿UVWQDPHODVWQDPH\HDURIELUWKDQG FRXQWU\RIELUWK 0H[LFR :HDOVROLQNRXUVDPSOHWRWKH 0H[LFDQ &HQVXV EDVHG RQ WKH VDPH IRXU FKDUDFWHULVWLFV EXW DUH DEOH WR PDWFK RQ VWDWH RI ELUWK LQ 0H[LFR :H IROORZ DQ LWHUDWLYH PDWFKLQJ SURFHGXUHVLPLODUWR$EUDPLW]N\%RXVWDQDQG(ULNVVRQ 23 In order to OLPLWELDVIURPWUDQVFULSWLRQHUURUVZHDOVRVWDQGDUGL]HQDPHVXVLQJWKH 'RXEOH0HWDSKRQHDOJRULWKP24 Our linking strategy produces a set of migrants who are uniquely OLQNHGWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV&HQVXVRUWRWKH0H[LFDQ&HQVXVOLQNHGWR multiple people in the same census, not linked to either census, or linked WR ERWK FHQVXVHV )DLOXUH WR OLQN WR HLWKHU FHQVXV LV PRVW OLNHO\ GXH WR GHDWKQDPHFKDQJHRUWUDQVFULSWLRQHUURUZKLOHOLQNLQJWRERWKFHQVXVHV or multiple times to the same census is likely due to extremely common QDPHV 7KHVH JURXSV DUH GURSSHG IURP WKH VDPSOH )URP WKH RULJLQDO PLJUDQWVZHKDYHDVDPSOHRILQGLYLGXDOVXQLTXHO\OLQNHGWR WKH 0H[LFDQ&HQVXVDQG XQLTXHO\OLQNHGWRWKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV&HQVXV25 22
2QHVLJQL¿FDQWGLVFUHSDQF\EHWZHHQWKHWZRVRXUFHVLVWKDW0H[LFRHQXPHUDWHGHYHU\ERUGHU FURVVLQJ LQFOXGLQJ IRU H[DPSOH GD\ WULSV ZKLOH WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV RQO\ LQFOXGH WKRVH ZKR SODQQHGWROHDYHSHUPDQHQWO\ 7D\ORU 23 $GHWDLOHGGHVFULSWLRQRIWKHPDWFKLQJSURFHGXUHDVZHOODVWKHOLQNLQJPDWUL[DUHDYDLODEOHDW KWWSV VLWHVJRRJOHFRPVLWHHGZDUGNRVDFNUHVHDUFKDQGKWWSV VLWHVJRRJOHFRPVLWH]DFKDZDUG research. 24 We use Ancestry.com to perform the linking process. 25 ,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHVHPDWFKHVWKHUHDUHPLJUDQWVZKRDUHXQOLQNHGDQGPDWFKHG WRERWKFHQVXVHV7KHHQXPHUDWLRQGDWHIRUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVFHQVXVZDV$SULO DQGWKH HQXPHUDWLRQGDWHIRUWKH0H[LFDQ&HQVXVZDV0D\ VRLWLVSRVVLEOHWKDWPLJUDQWVOHIWLQ EHWZHHQGDWHVWREHFRXQWHGLQERWKFRXQWULHV+RZHYHUJLYHQWKDWPLJUDQWVZHUHDOUHDG\LQWKH United States for ten years, this is unlikely.
Kosack and Ward
7KHUH DUH UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV RXW RI D WRWDO XQLTXHO\ OLQNHG migrants, which yields a 44.2 percent return rate after ten years of VWD\7KLVUDWHLVOLNHO\DQXSSHUERXQGIRUWKHWUXHUDWHRIUHWXUQVLQFH transcription error and name changes were more likely to occur in the United States. It is likely that transcription errors were more prevalent in the United States than in Mexico as Mexican enumerators were more IDPLOLDU ZLWK 6SDQLVK QDPHV )XUWKHU QDPH FKDQJHV ZHUH PRUH OLNHO\ WRRFFXULQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDVVRPHPLJUDQWVDQJOLFL]HGWKHLUQDPHVWR JDLQIDYRULQWKHODERUPDUNHW %LDYDVFKLHWDO %\FRPSDULVRQ the return migration rate for males calculated with administrative data for the decade from 1920 to 1930 is approximately 13.3 percent. +RZHYHU WKHVH DGPLQLVWUDWLYH UHFRUGV SUREDEO\ XQGHUFRXQWHG RXWPLJUDQWV DQG WKHUHIRUHSURYLGHDORZHUERXQGRQRXWPLJUDWLRQUDWHV %DQGLHUDHWDO 7D\ORU 'HVSLWH WKH IDFW WKDW SHUPDQHQW PLJUDQWV DQG UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV HQGHG up in different countries, their characteristics upon arrival, as shown LQ 7DEOH ZHUH UHPDUNDEO\ VLPLODU 5HWXUQ PLJUDQWV DQG SHUPDQHQW PLJUDQWV ZHUH VWDWLVWLFDOO\ LQGLVWLQJXLVKDEOH LQ WHUPV RI DJH PDULWDO VWDWXV DQG FDVK RQ KDQG DW DUULYDO 3HUKDSV VXUSULVLQJO\ WKHUH ZDV QR difference in network connections, which could have supported migrants DQGDOWHUHGUHWXUQEHKDYLRU,PSRUWDQWO\WKHUHZDVDOVRQRVWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQL¿FDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ KHLJKWV ZKLFK VXJJHVWV WKDW UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV ZHUH QRW GLIIHUHQWLDOO\ VHOHFWHG IURP WKH PLJUDQW SRSXODWLRQ VHH )LJXUH Return migrants and permanent migrants were not similar in every ZD\0LJUDQWVERUQLQWKH&HQWHUUHJLRQZHUHPRUHOLNHO\WREHSHUPDQHQW PLJUDQWV ZKLOH WKRVH ERUQ LQ WKH %DMLR UHJLRQ ZHUH PRUH OLNHO\ WR EH UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV27 Those who listed their intended destination DV &DOLIRUQLD ZHUH OHDVW OLNHO\ WR EHFRPH UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV 7KH IXUWKHU GLVWDQFHEHWZHHQVHQGLQJVWDWHVDQG&DOLIRUQLDOLNHO\LQFUHDVHGWKHFRVWV RIUHWXUQLQJORZHULQJUHWXUQUDWHV %RUMDVDQG%UDWVEHUJ ,QDGGLWLRQUHWXUQPLJUDQWVZHUHVOLJKWO\PRUHOLNHO\WREHXQVNLOOHGDOWKRXJK the magnitude of this difference is small and only marginally statistiFDOO\VLJQL¿FDQW:KLOHWKHGLIIHUHQFHLQRFFXSDWLRQDOFODVVVXJJHVWVWKDW 7KLV LV FDOFXODWHG DV WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI HPLJUDQWV IURP ± RYHU WKH DWULVN SRSXODWLRQWRUHWXUQKRPHGXULQJWKH VJLYHQLQSUR[\E\WKHQXPEHUVRILPPLJUDQWVIURP ± VLQFHPRVWPLJUDQWVOHDYHIURPWKHSDVW¿YH\HDUV 7KLVUDWHIRUPXODLVVLPLODUWR WKHUHSDWULDWLRQUDWHLQ*RXOG EXWGRHVQRWFRUUHFWIRUQRQLPPLJUDQWVDQGQRQHPLJUDQWV since our migrant sample only contains immigrants and not the other categories. 27 ,W LV SRVVLEOH WKDW PLJUDQWV PRYHG EDFN DQG IRUWK DFURVV WKH ERUGHU PXOWLSOH WLPHV 7KH 5HSRUWRIWKH&RPPLVVLRQHU*HQHUDORI,PPLJUDWLRQLQ WKHFORVHVWUHSRUWWRWKH VZLWK DYDLODEOHLQIRUPDWLRQVKRZVWKDWSHUFHQWRIDUULYLQJ0H[LFDQLPPLJUDQWVKDGEHHQLQWKH United States previously.
1037
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants TABLE 4 6800$5<67$7,67,&6 )25 5 3(50$1(17 $1'5(78510,*5$176 3HUPDQHQW0LJUDQWV
Return Migrants
'LIIHUHQFH
+HLJKW FHQWLPHWHUV
±
$JHDWDUULYDO \HDUV
27.77
27.88
0.112
Unskilled
0.855
0.888
0.0330*
Skilled
0.113
0.0854
±
3URIHVVLRQDO
±
Literate
0.994
0.997
0.00310
Married
0.439
0.472
0.0329
Single
0.543
0.509
±
Widowed
0.0188
0.0190
0.0002
+HDGHGWR&DOLIRUQLD
0.0877
±
+HDGHGWR7H[DV
0.799
0.831
0.0312
+HDGHGWR$UL]RQD
0.0739
±
North
0.225
±
%DMLR
0.707
0.0575**
&HQWHU
0.00949
±
South
0.000
0.00158
0.00158
Meeting friend
0.00922
0.0100
0.00078
Meeting relative
0.144
0.129
±
&DVKRQKDQG
29.24
34.11
4.87
798
—
9DULDEOHV
Meeting no one
2EVHUYDWLRQV
0.0124
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return migrants were negatively selected on occupation, it is unknown whether occupation was intended or previous occupation, leaving their WUXHSRVLWLRQLQWKHVNLOOGLVWULEXWLRQXQFOHDU Estimating Selection into Return Migration :HUHYLVLWWKHREVHUYDWLRQIURP7DEOHDQG)LJXUHWKDWSHUPDQHQWDQG UHWXUQPLJUDQWVKDGVLPLODUKHLJKWV FHQWLPHWHUV DQGWHVWZKHWKHU WKLVUHVXOWKROGVZKHQFRQWUROOLQJIRUDJHDQGUHJLRQRIELUWK6SHFL¿FDOO\ we pool the return and permanent migrant samples and regress height on an indicator for whether the migrant was a return migrant. The results of the regression of height on return migration status are SUHVHQWHGLQ3DQHO$RI7DEOH$VLPSOHFRUUHODWLRQLQWKH¿UVWFROXPQ VKRZVWKDWUHWXUQPLJUDQWVZHUHFHQWLPHWHUVVKRUWHUWKDQSHUPDQHQW PLJUDQWVDVWDWLVWLFDOO\DQGHFRQRPLFDOO\LQVLJQL¿FDQWGLIIHUHQFH,QUHJUHVVLRQVLQFOXGLQJDJHDQGUHJLRQRIELUWK¿[HGHIIHFWVKHLJKWVRIUHWXUQDQG SHUPDQHQWPLJUDQWVFRQWLQXHWREHVWDWLVWLFDOO\LQGLVWLQJXLVKDEOH$OWKRXJK
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TABLE 5 5(*5(66,215(68/76 )25 5 5(78516(/(&7,21
All
All
All
All
0.0744
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0.00594
3DQHO$ Sample Return migrant
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Age at Arrival<40 &URVV/LQN
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—
;
;
;
;
;
$JHELQV 5HJLRQRIELUWK
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; —
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; ;
; ;
; ;
Occupational class
—
—
—
;
;
;
1,430
1,430
1,430
1430
1,599
Unskilled
Skilled
Professional North
Bajio
Center
0.0949
–0.211
0.193
0.260
0.0433
–2.046
(0.340)
(1.128)
(1.808)
(0.673)
(0.370)
(3.864)
X X X
X X X
X X X
X X N/A
X X N/A
X X N/A
Occupational class
N/A
N/A
N/A
X
X
X
Observations
1,243
144
43
346
1,047
36
2EVHUYDWLRQV Panel B: Sample Return migrant Decade of birth Age bins Region of birth
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6LJQL¿FDQWDWWKHSHUFHQWOHYHO Notes: 5REXVWVWDQGDUGHUURUVDUHLQSDUHQWKHVHV7KHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHLQHDFKUHJUHVVLRQLV KHLJKW(DFKUHJUHVVLRQKDVGLIIHUHQWVDPSOHVSHFL¿FDWLRQV3HUPDQHQWPLJUDQWVDUHWKRVHPLJUDQWV OLQNHGWRWKH 86&HQVXVDQGUHWXUQPLJUDQWVDUHWKRVHOLQNHGWRWKH 0H[LFDQ&HQVXV Source %RUGHUFURVVLQJPDQLIHVWV
RFFXSDWLRQDOVWUXFWXUHVXSRQDUULYDOZHUHVOLJKWO\GLIIHUHQWEHWZHHQUHWXUQ and permanent migrants, once controlling for occupational structure there ZDVVWLOOQRGLIIHUHQWLDOVHOHFWLRQRIUHWXUQPLJUDQWV3DQHO%VKRZVDOWHUQDWLYHVDPSOHVSHFL¿FDWLRQVIRUVDPSOHVLQFOXGLQJRQO\XQVNLOOHGVNLOOHG RUSURIHVVLRQDOZRUNHUVDQGDOVRLQFOXGLQJRQO\SHRSOHERUQLQWKH1RUWK %DMLRRU&HQWHUUHJLRQ All regressions show no economically or statisWLFDOO\ VLJQL¿FDQW GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ return migrants and permanent migrants in terms of height. Overall, our analysis suggests that return migrants and permanent migrants had similar levels of human capital.
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Robustness of Results for the Linked Sample /LQNHGVDPSOHVPD\QRWEHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRIWKHLUXQGHUO\LQJSRSXODWLRQVEHFDXVHWKHOLQNVDUHQRWPDGHDWUDQGRP6SHFL¿FDOO\DPLJUDQW LV PRUH OLNHO\ WR EH FRQQHFWHG LI KH KDV D XQLTXH QDPH DQG KH ZLOO QRWEHOLQNHGLIWKHUHZDVDGHDWKQDPHFKDQJHRUWUDQVFULSWLRQHUURU While transcription error was likely random with respect to height, name changes could have occurred more often for migrants intending to reside permanently in the United States. If those migrants were more adept at (QJOLVK RU DW DFTXLULQJ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV VSHFL¿F KXPDQ FDSLWDO WKHQ RXU linked sample would underestimate the quality of permanent migrants. $QRWKHUFRQFHUQLVWKDWPRUWDOLW\PLJKWELDVUHVXOWVLIWDOOHULQGLYLGXDOV are healthier and likely live longer. We restrict the sample to migrants arriving under the age of 40 who were less likely to die within ten years. 7KHUHVXOWVVKRZQLQ&ROXPQ RI3DQHO$RI7DEOHLQGLFDWHWKDW HYHQ ZLWK WKH UHVWULFWHG VDPSOH ZH ¿QG QR GLIIHUHQWLDO VHOHFWLRQ LQWR return migration. /DVWO\LWLVSRVVLEOHWKDWKRXVHKROGVLQ0H[LFRUHSRUWHGPLJUDQWVLQ WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDVPHPEHUVRIWKHKRXVHKROGWRHQXPHUDWRUV7KLVHUURU ZRXOGLPSO\WKDWOLQNVWRERWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG0H[LFDQFHQVXVHV ZHUHDFWXDOO\SHRSOHZKRUHVLGHGLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV:HLQFOXGH PLJUDQWVZKRZHUHXQLTXHO\OLQNHGWRERWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV&HQVXVDQG WKH 0H[LFDQ &HQVXV LQ RXU VDPSOH RI SHUPDQHQW PLJUDQWV DQG UHJUHVV KHLJKW RQ UHWXUQ PLJUDQW VWDWXV 7KH UHVXOW UHSRUWHG LQ &ROXPQ LQ 3DQHO$RI7DEOHFRQ¿UPVWKDWUHWXUQPLJUDQWVGH¿QHGLQWKLVPDQQHU were not differentially selected from the population. &21&/86,216
,Q WKH HDUO\ WZHQWLHWK FHQWXU\ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV ODERU PDUNHW GUHZ the taller workers from Mexico. Mexican migrants were over four centiPHWHUV WDOOHU WKDQ PHPEHUV RI WKH 0H[LFDQ PLOLWDU\ DQG RQO\ RQH DQG a half centimeters shorter than passport holders. The fact that Mexican PLJUDQWV ZHUH SRVLWLYHO\ VHOIVHOHFWHG LV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK %RUMDV DQG&KLTXLDUDQG+DQVRQ ZKHUHPLJUDQWVKDGKLJKFRVWVRIWUDYHO RUIDFHGFUHGLWFRQVWUDLQWVOLPLWLQJWKHDELOLW\RIORZHUTXDOLW\0H[LFDQV to migrate. This positive self-selection represents a “quality drain” or “productivity drain” from Mexico to the United States. )URPRXUOLQNHGVDPSOHZH¿QGWKDWUHWXUQPLJUDQWVZHUHQRWGLIIHUentially selected. Taller individuals migrated from Mexico, and migrants REVHUYHG\HDUVODWHULQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVZHUHMXVWDVWDOO7LPHDQGUHWXUQ migration did not impact the quality drain on Mexico or the quality gain
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
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to the United States that resulted from positive self-selection into migration from Mexico. This lack of selection on height for Mexican return migrants is in contrast to negative VHOIVHOHFWLRQ RI PRVW (XURSHDQ UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV GXULQJ WKH HDUO\ V $EUDPLW]N\HWDO 28,WLVSRVVLEOHWKDWWKLVUHVXOWFRXOG EHGXHWRGHSRUWDWLRQRUWKHWKUHDWRIGHSRUWDWLRQZKLFKIRUFHGGLIIHUHQW people out of the United States than would otherwise leave and thus likely altered the selection of return migrants. If the United States randomly deported Mexicans without respect to human capital or skill then this would lead to return migrants having the same human capital as permaQHQWPLJUDQWVZKLFKZH¿QG:KLOHSXUHO\HFRQRPLFIRUFHVPLJKWOHDGWR the lowest performing migrants leaving the country, deportation policies H[SHOERWKKLJKDQGORZTXDOLW\PLJUDQWV+RZHYHURWKHUUHDVRQV IRU H[DPSOHSUR[LPLW\WR0H[LFR FRXOGDOVRH[SODLQWKHGLIIHUHQWSDWWHUQVLQ UHWXUQPLJUDQWVHOHFWLRQEHWZHHQ(XURSHDQVDQG0H[LFDQV $ SDWWHUQ RI SRVLWLYH VHOIVHOHFWLRQ RI 0H[LFDQ PLJUDQWV DIIHFWV ERWK Mexico and the United States in a variety of ways. The United States received the relatively more productive Mexican workers, and these ZRUNHUVZRXOGDVVLPLODWHLQWRWKHODERUPDUNHWPRUHTXLFNO\WKDQQHJDWLYHO\VHOHFWHGPLJUDQWV)RU0H[LFRWKHWDOOHUODERUHUVWKHWDOOHUPLQHUV and the taller farmers left Mexico to work in the United States, draining Mexico of human capital and lowering the productivity of the average 0H[LFDQ ZRUNHU +RZHYHU WKH WRWDO HIIHFW RQ 0H[LFDQ GHYHORSPHQW LV XQFOHDUDVPLJUDWLRQDIIHFWVQRWRQO\ODERUPDUNHWVEXWDOVRFDQLQÀXHQFH KRPHFRXQWU\VDYLQJVDQGLQYHVWPHQWE\LQFUHDVLQJUHPLWWDQFHV,WIXUWKHU DIIHFWV WKH KRPH FRXQWU\ E\ FKDQJLQJ SROLWLFDO LQVWLWXWLRQV LI PLJUDQWV UHWXUQEDFNKRPHE\LQFUHDVLQJWHFKQRORJLFDOGLIIXVLRQZLWKWKHWUDQVPLVVLRQRIWHFKQLTXHVRUFDSLWDOJRRGVDFURVVERUGHUVRUE\LQÀXHQFLQJIXWXUH migration with the strengthening of networks. This study provides a valuDEOHVWHSWREHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJWKHYDULRXVHIIHFWVRIKLVWRULFDOPLJUDWLRQ IURP0H[LFRWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVRQWKHHFRQRPLHVRIERWKQDWLRQV 5()(5(1&(6 $EUDPLW]N\5DQ/HDK3ODWW%RXVWDQDQG.DWKHULQH(ULNVVRQ³(XURSH¶V7LUHG3RRU +XGGOHG 0DVVHV 6HOI6HOHFWLRQ DQG (FRQRPLF 2XWFRPHV LQ WKH $JH RI 0DVV Migration.” American Economic Review QR ± ²²²³$1DWLRQRI,PPLJUDQWV $VVLPLODWLRQDQG(FRQRPLF2XWFRPHVLQWKH$JHRI Mass Migration.” Journal of Political Economy QR ± 28
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)HOLFLDQR =DGLD 0 ³7KH 6NLOO DQG (FRQRPLF 3HUIRUPDQFH RI 0H[LFDQ ,PPLJUDQWV from 1910 to 1990.” Explorations in Economic HistoryQR ± )HUULH-RVHSK3Yankeys Now: Immigrants in the Antebellum US 1840–1860. Oxford: 2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV )RHUVWHU5REHUW)DQG8QLWHG6WDWHVThe Racial Problems Involved in Immigration from Latin America and the West Indies to the United States: A Report Submitted to the Secretary of Labor:DVKLQJWRQ *RYHUQPHQW3ULQWLQJ2I¿FH *LEVRQ-RKQDQG'DYLG0F.HQ]LH³(LJKW4XHVWLRQVDERXW%UDLQ'UDLQ´The Journal of Economic Perspectives QR ± *ROGLQ &ODXGLD ³7KH 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\ RI ,PPLJUDWLRQ 5HVWULFWLRQ LQ WKH 8QLWHG States, 1890 to 1921.” In The Regulated Economy: A Historical Approach to Political EconomyHGLWHGE\&ODXGLD*ROGLQDQG*DU\/LEHFDS±&KLFDJR 8QLYHUVLW\RI&KLFDJR3UHVV *RXOG-RKQ'³(XURSHDQ,QWHU&RQWLQHQWDO(PLJUDWLRQ7KH5RDG+RPH 5HWXUQ0LJUDWLRQ from the USA.” Journal of European Economic History QR ± *UDWWRQ %ULDQ DQG (PLO\ 0HUFKDQW ³,PPLJUDWLRQ 5HSDWULDWLRQ DQG 'HSRUWDWLRQ The MexicanǦ2ULJLQ3RSXODWLRQLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV ± ´ International Migration ReviewQR ± *XWLpUUH]'DYLG*Walls and Mirrors: Mexican Americans, Mexican Immigrants, and the Politics of Ethnicity. 2DNODQG 8QLYHUVLW\RI&DOLIRUQLD3UHVV *XWPDQQ 0\URQ 3 5REHUW 0F&DD 5RGROIR *XWLpUUH] 0RQWHV DQG %ULDQ *UDWWRQ ³/RV HIHFWRV GHPRJUi¿FRV GH OD 5HYROXFLyQ 0H[LFDQD HQ (VWDGRV 8QLGRV´ Historia MexicanaQR ± +DWWRQ7LPRWK\-DQG-HIIUH\*:LOOLDPVRQ The Age of Mass Migration: Causes and Economic Impact.1HZ&RPSXWHU )LOH@ ,&365 YHUVLRQ 0H[LFR &LW\ 0H[LFR 6HFUHWDULD GH OD 'HIHQVD 6'1 >SURGXFHU@$QQ$UERU ,QWHU8QLYHUVLW\&RQVRUWLXPIRU3ROLWLFDO DQG6RFLDO5HVHDUFK>GLVWULEXWRU@ ²²²³*URZWKZLWK,QHTXDOLW\ /LYLQJ6WDQGDUGVLQ0H[LFR± ´Journal of Latin American Studies QR ± ———. Measuring Up: A History of Living Standards in Mexico, 1850–1950. Stanford: 6WDQIRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV /ySH]$ORQVR0RUDPD\DQG5D~O3RUUDV&RQGH\³7KH8SVDQG'RZQVRI0H[LFDQ (FRQRPLF*URZWK 7KH%LRORJLFDO6WDQGDUGRI/LYLQJDQG,QHTXDOLW\± ´ Economics & Human Biology QR ±
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