17/02/2014 Singapore Traders Spectrum
Wired Weekly Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
DBS Group Research . Equity
KEY POINTS
STI pauses off 3050 to re-base at c.3000 before heading to 3150 by end-March
17 Feb 2014
Straits Times Index
FTSE Small Cap Index
3,500
640
3,400 600 3,300
Bargain hunting opportunities post sell-down
3,200
560
3,100
Wired Weekly The rebound that started off at STI 2950 continued last week, touching as high as 3051. The swing is within our expectations. We had earlier said that 2950 is an attractive level for bargain hunting with the immediate bounce capped at 3050. Technically, further upside to 3150 is possible in the week/month ahead but not before a slight pullback at 3050 to rebase around the 3000 level. With the likelihood of a trough at 2950 and the current rebound still having c.100pts more to go before 3150, traders should bargain hunt on minor dips. Technically, we peg STI support around 3000. Our large cap picks are CapitaMalls Asia, Genting, Keppel Corp, Ezion, Capitaland, Keppel Land and ST Engineering. Small cap picks are Bumitama Agri, Venture Corp, ARA, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust and CapitaRetail China Trust. The recent price correction clearly opens up a trading opportunity for Venture Corp ahead of the company announcing its FY results by the end of February. Venture Corp is expected to declare a DPS of 50Scts, offering a yield of nearly 7%. Shares of Nam Cheong rallied to a 52-wk high at the turn of 2014 and has held firm in spite of the recent market sell-down, affirming its price strength. Nam Cheong is one of our top picks in the O&G segment. Singapore’s 2014 Budget on 21st Feb will continue to focus on fostering inclusive growth. Elderly workers will receive special attention to enhance their employability and well-being. Lower income groups will get more help as policymakers continue to confront the widening income gap.
520 3,000 2,900 Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
www.dbsvickers.com sa: YM
480 Feb-13
STI and 12-mth forward PE 3800 3600
May-13
US$/barrel 125
Average @ 13.9x
120
-0.5SD @ 13.1x
115
3200
-1SD @ 12.3x
3000
Nov-13
Feb-14
110 105
2800
100
2600
95
2400 Dec-12
Aug-13
Brent Crude Oil
+0.5SD @ 14.7x
3400
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
90 Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
Source: Datastream, DBS Bank
FTSE Indices 5-Day Performance FTSE Sectoral Indices STI Mid Cap Small Cap All Share China Real Estate Real Estate & Dev Real Estate Inv Trust Oil & Gas Basic Materials Industrials Consumer Goods Health Care Consumer Service Telecommunication Utilities Financials Technology
Index @ 14-Feb-14 3,038.71 703.33 525.70 739.71 221.43 688.63 691.09 698.91 728.15 192.81 739.73 461.92 1,191.97 788.83 948.08 541.13 766.89 356.40
Source: DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Yeo Kee Yan (65) 6682 3706
[email protected] / Janice Chua (65) 6682 3692
[email protected] Ling Lee Keng (65) 6682 3703
[email protected]
Feb-14
1 Wk % Chg 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.3 1.3 2.2 0.9 -0.2 2.1 0.8 1.7 7.1 0.6 1.6
YTD % Chg -4.1 -2.5 -3.0 -3.7 -1.6 -2.7 -3.2 -2.1 -5.8 2.6 -1.5 -4.1 3.4 -4.8 -2.0 15.7 -4.4 -6.4
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
Singapore Market Summary STI pauses off 3050 to re-base at c.3000 before heading to 3150 by end-March The rebound that started off at STI 2950 continued last week, touching as high as 3051. The swing is within our expectations. We had earlier said that 2950 is an attractive level for bargain hunting with the immediate bounce capped at 3050. Technically, further upside to 3150 is possible in the week/month ahead but not before a slight pullback at 3050 to re-base around the 3000 level. STI’s attractive PE valuation had stemmed further losses. To recap, we had pointed out before that at the recent low of 2950, STI traded below its 13.12x (-0.5SD) FY14F PE level at 3040 and was a mere 50pts from its 12.33x (-1SD) 12-mth forward PE level at c.2900. These valuation levels are very attractive for bargain hunting and 2950 has provided a firm support for the index. Still, the upside from the current rebound will be contained given ongoing uncertainties about EM volatility and China slowdown. Furthermore, domestic factors such as a slowdown in the residential property market and uncertainties surrounding local banks’ acquisitions (e.g. OCBC acquiring Wing Hang) could limit the current rebound upside. Technically, we see further upside capped at 3150 or just a tad above through the rest of CY1Q14. This still gives another 100pt upside potential for the STI (currently at c.3040) over the next few weeks. Earnings season picks up pace over next 2 weeks It has not been a good start to the results season either. Overall, about half of stocks under our coverage have released results and among them, 20% came in below our estimates, with only 10% managing to beat our expectations. So far, we have tweaked FY14 and FY15F earnings by about 1% each. We are now expecting earnings growth of 13% and 9% for FY14 and FY15, respectively. Corporate results will remain in focus over the next 2 weeks.
Page 2
Bargain hunting opportunities post sell-down With the likelihood of a trough at 2950 and the current rebound still having c.100pts more to go before 3150, traders should bargain hunt on minor dips. Technically, we peg STI support around 3000. Large cap picks are CapitaMalls Asia, Genting, Keppel Corp, Ezion, Capitaland, Keppel Land and ST Engineering. Small cap picks are Bumitama Agri, Venture Corp, ARA, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust and CapitaRetail China Trust. Trade Ideas Venture Corp (Share price: S$7.30, TP: S$8.40) The recent price correction clearly opens up a trading opportunity for Venture Corp ahead of the company announcing its FY results by the end of February. Venture Corp is expected to declare a 50cts dividend that translates to c. 7% yield. In addition, stronger growth in the US and Europe would benefit Venture as corporate spending ramps up to capitalise on the long awaited rebound in global demand. Nam Cheong (Share price: S$0.32, TP: S$0.43) Shares of Nam Cheong rallied into 52-wk high territory at the turn of 2014 and has held firm in spite of the recent market sell-down, affirming its price strength. Nam Cheong is one of our top picks in the O&G segment. Recent contract wins affirm our view that it is an early beneficiary of renewed strength in the OSV market. The weaker MYR-USD exchange rate can potentially benefit shipbuilding margins that we haven't taken into account. Expect healthy net profit CAGR of 26% over FY12-15. Strong quarterly earnings delivery is a catalyst for the stock to move higher. Buy ahead of results release on 26 February.
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
Key Data for Stock Picks
Co m pany Large cap picks CapitaMalls Asia Genting Keppel Corp Ezion CapitaLand Keppel Land Small cap picks Bumitama Venture ARA FCT MGCCT CRCT Trade idea s Venture Nam Cheong
Mkt Cap (US$m )
P rice (S$) 13-Feb
Target Price (S$)
% Upside
EPS EP S Gt h (%) Gt h (%) Rcmd 14F 15F
6,772.9 17,071.3 18,792.9 2,623.0 12,331.2 4,916.0
1.74 1.40 10.39 2.18 2.90 3.18
2.28 1.75 12.60 3.36 3.93 4.65
31 25 21 54 36 46
Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
47.4 38.1 11.8 65.6 44.3 (44.5)
26.2 3.9 3.0 29.1 (23.8) 1.1
18.7 22.9 11.9 9.2 10.1 16.0
14.8 22.0 11.5 7.1 13.3 15.8
2.0 0.7 3.8 0.0 2.2 4.1
1,616.9 2,005.6 1,428.3 1,398.5 2,141.0 1,056.0
0.92 7.30 1.69 1.70 0.80 1.32
1.23 8.40 2.08 2.14 0.97 1.56
34 15 23 26 22 18
Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy
63.9 9.3 5.4 3.9 9.2 114.3
25.3 11.6 2.0 7.1 6.8 13.4
11.9 13.9 17.2 15.2 17.5 15.1
9.5 12.4 16.8 14.2 16.3 13.3
0.0 6.8 3.0 6.4 7.3 6.9
2,005.6 673.0
7.30 0.32
8.40 0.43
15 33
Buy Buy
9.3 27.5
11.6 17.6
13.9 7.5
12.4 6.4
6.8 1.9
PE (x) 14F
Div PE (x) Yld (%) 15F 13F
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P, DBS Bank
Page 3
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
The Week Ahead
Economic News
Corporate results to remain in focus
Janet Yellen maintains policy of scaling back QE In her first testimony as FED Chairman, Janet Yellen said more work is needed to restore the labour market back to health and has pledged to maintain her predecessor's policies by scaling back stimulus in "measured steps". While growth has picked up, she noted that "the recovery in the labour market is far from complete”. She reiterated her commitment to help the US economy return to full employment and to return inflation to 2% while ensuring that it does not run persistently above or below that level.
For this week, stocks in our coverage to release results include Global Logistic Properties on Tuesday, followed by CapitaLand on Wednesday. Genting, NOL, Wilmar, ARA and Ezion will release theirs on Thursday. Ezion is expected to report a 55% growth in earnings for FY13. We like Ezion’s strong growth profile and earnings visibility. On the US economy, the FED will release minutes from its Jan 28-29 meeting on 20 Feb, at which policy makers are likely to further reduce the central bank’s record stimulus. Data on US home sales and new home construction will be out on 19 Feb, and consensus expects a weak set of numbers.
Page 4
2014 Budget to focus on inclusive growth Singapore’s 2014 Budget on 21st Feb will continue to focus on fostering inclusive growth. Elderly workers will receive special attention to enhance their employability and well-being. Lower income groups will get more help as policymakers continue to confront the widening income gap.
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
Top large and small / mid cap picks for the coming week
TOP LARGE CAP PICKS Recom
Price
T a rge t P rice
Upside
Hutchison Port Hldgs Trust (US$)
Buy
0.660
0.80
21%
1) Benefitting from the anticipated Eurozone GDP recovery 2) Expect earnings to improve 3) Attractive yield of about 7% to 8%
Keppel Corp
Buy
10.370
12.60
21%
1) Strong order win momentum 2) Unrivalled solid execution track record, global yard network, and worldclass proprietary designs.
ST Engineering
Buy
3.770
4.90
30%
1) Proxy to recovery in Europe and US 2) Strong order book 3) Attractive dividend yield of 4%
Yangzijiang
Buy
1.125
1.32
17%
1) Best proxy to ride the shipping and shipbuilding recovery. 2) Attractive dividend yield of 4%.
Re com
Price
T a rge t Price
Ups ide
Ezion Holdings
Buy
2.280
3.36
47%
1) Strong growth profile and earnings visibility 2) Expect steady growth and contract wins to drive the stock price further
China Merchants
Buy
0.890
1.20
35%
1) Steady traffic growth and early repayment of loans to drive firm organic earnings expansion 2) Sale of NZ property business to further strengthen the Group’s balance sheet
Pacific Radiance Ltd
Buy
0.950
1.05
11%
1) Growing offshore support services player 2) Benefit from ongoing recovery in OSV market and presence through joint ventures, in markets protected by cabotage laws
Nam Cheong
Buy
0.320
0.43
33%
1) Potential early beneficiary of renewed strength in offshore support vessel (OSV) market 2) Expecting healthy 2-year earnings CAGR of 22%; further upside if FY15 built-to-stock programme bigger than expected
Company
Catalyst
T OP S M A LL / M ID CA P PICKS Compa ny
Ca ta lys t
Source: DBS Bank
Page 5
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
Major research reports released last week Company / Sector
Recommendation
Target Price ($)
Key Points
Economics
-
-
SG Budget - More targeted approach for companies
Economics
-
-
SG Budget - Strengthening inclusive growth
SIIC Environment
BUY (Initiating coverage) S$ 0.25
1) Initiating coverage on SIIC with Buy for 33% potential return to 12-month TP of S$0.25 2) Strong parent support and +ve industry fundamentals will drive 49% net profits CAGR from FY13FY15 3) Recent rally may not have factored in full growth potential, more acquisitions in medium term could drive further upside
Genting Singapore
BUY
S$ 1.75
1) Foray into Korea to gain foothold in North Asia, hedging for potential gaming liberalisation 2) Potential catalysts from strong earnings recovery and Japan’s gaming liberalisation (seen as frontrunner) 3) Reiterate BUY and S$1.75 TP
CapitaMalls Asia
BUY
S$ 2.28 (Prev S$ 2.22)
1) Results in line, lifted by improved operational performance 2) More new completions to raise recurrent income 3) Maintain BUY, TP S$2.28
ComfortDelgro
BUY
S$ 2.19
1) Record 4Q/FY13 profits within expectations 2) Dividend payout inched up to 56.5% with 4 Scts final DPS (FY13: 7Scts vs FY12: 6.4 Scts) 3) Healthy balance sheet to pursue growth via M&As; medium term target of 60% overseas contribution 4) Steady profile; maintain BUY rating and S$2.19 TP
Tat Hong
FULLY VALUED S$ 0.64 (Prev S$ 1.01) (Downgrade from Hold)
1) 3Q FY14 earnings missed estimate on weak Australian and Indonesian operations 2) Slashed FY14F/FY15F earnings by 28%/42% 3) Downgrade to Fully Valued; slashed earnings, cut TP to S$0.64
Perennial China Retail Trust BUY
S$ 0.84
1) Distribution income supported by earn out 2) Operations stabilising and growing on track but preopening expenses may dampen performance 3) Maintain BUY, TP S$0.84
SATS
HOLD
S$ 3.25 (Prev S$ 3.29)
1) 2) 3) 4)
Far East Hospitality Trust
HOLD
S$ 0.92 (Prev S$ 0.95)
1) Improved 4Q13 results 2) Refurbishments and repositioning strategies remain key drivers to earnings growth 3) Maintain HOLD, TP revised to S$0.92
Religare Health Trust
HOLD
S$ 0.82 (Prev S$ 0.81)
1) 2) 3) 4)
3Q14 results as expected; DPU at 1.95 Scts Operations remained strong 1H15 distributions hedged at SGD/INR53.36 Maintain HOLD, TP: S$0.82
Biosensors International
HOLD
S$ 0.90 (Prev S$ 0.94)
1) 2) 3) 4)
3Q14 below expectations as stent sales and opex disappoint Slower growth, lower margins playing out Cut FY15F/FY16F earnings by 22%/27% Maintain HOLD and lower TP to S$0.90
Mermaid Maritime
BUY
S$ 0.60
1) Starts off FY14 with a solid set of results; earnings beat expectations as subsea utilisation surges to 86% 2) Associate Asia Offshore Drilling (AOD) also generates higher-than-expected profits 3) Strong earnings recovery story still valid 4) Maintain BUY with TP of S$0.60
Source: DBS Bank
Page 6
3Q14 results below expectations; net profit dropped by 8.7% to S$42.9m Weaker contribution from Food Solutions arising from weaker JPY, higher staff costs Trim forecasts by 9%/2% Maintain HOLD, TP revised to S$3.25
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
Shanghai Composite Index
Hang Seng Index
2,500
25,000
2,400
24,000
2,200
8,300
21,000
8,000
20,000
2,000
19,000 May-13 -13.7% 3.5%
Aug-13
Nov-13
YTD: 1 Wk:
Feb-14
-0.8% 3.2%
12 mth: 1 mth:
16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000
12 mth: 1 mth:
29.2% -5.8%
Aug-13
Nov-13
YTD: 1 Wk:
Feb-14
-10.8% 2.7%
1.27 1.25 1.23
12 mth: 1 mth:
May-13 2.3% -0.3%
Aug-13
Nov-13
YTD: 1 Wk:
Feb-14 0.1% -0.3%
12 mth: 1 mth:
Nov-13
YTD: 1 Wk:
Feb-14
-4.9% 3.5%
7,400 Feb-13 12 mth: 1 mth:
Aug-13
5.10
6.24
5.05
6.20
5.00
Feb-14
-3.3% 2.6%
12 mth: 1 mth:
-2.7% 0.4%
Aug-13 YTD: 1 Wk:
Nov-13
Feb-14 0.2% 0.0%
12 mth: 1 mth:
Nov-13
YTD: 1 Wk:
Feb-14
1.5% 4.5%
1.33 1.31 1.29 1.27 May-13 9.4% -2.0%
4.70 Feb-13
32.7% 1.4%
Aug-13
1.35
Aug-13
Nov-13
YTD: 1 Wk:
Feb-14 -3.0% 0.1%
1.25 Feb-13 12 mth: 1 mth:
May-13 -4.8% 0.6%
May-13 1.7% 0.0%
Aug-13
Nov-13
YTD: 1 Wk:
Feb-14
-0.5% 0.7%
A$/SGD
4.75 May-13
May-13
1.37
4.80
6.04
-1.7% 1.9%
1.39
4.85
6.08
YTD: 1 Wk:
Feb-14
1.41
4.90
6.12
Nov-13
Euro/USD
4.95
6.16
Aug-13
NASDAQ Index
Nov-13
YTD: 1 Wk:
May-13 7.1% -0.9%
4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 Feb-13
SGD/RMB
6.28
12 mth: 1 mth:
May-13 14.6% -2.1%
110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 Feb-13
USD/RMB
6.00 Feb-13
Aug-13
USD/JPY
1.29
12 mth: 1 mth:
-4.5% -2.7%
17,500 17,000 16,500 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000 Feb-13
USD/SGD
1.21 Feb-13
May-13
Dow Jones Industrials
17,000
May-13
7,700
18,000 Feb-13
Nikkei Index
10,000 Feb-13
8,600
22,000
2,100
12 mth: 1 mth:
8,900
23,000
2,300
1,900 Feb-13
Taiwan Index
Aug-13 YTD: 1 Wk:
Nov-13
Feb-14 0.1% 0.9%
1.32 1.30 1.28 1.26 1.24 1.22 1.20 1.18 1.16 1.14 1.12 1.10 Feb-13 12 mth: 1 mth:
May-13 -11.6% -1.1%
Aug-13 YTD: 1 Wk:
Nov-13
Feb-14 0.0% -0.5%
Source: Datastream, DBS Bank
Page 7
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
Baltic Dry Index 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 900 700 500 Feb-13 12 mth: 1 mth:
Volatility Index
Fed Funds Rate
24
0.30
22
0.25
20
0.20
18
0.15
16
0.10
14
0.05
12 May-13 46.1% -19.9%
Aug-13
Nov-13
YTD: 1 Wk:
Feb-14
10 Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
0.00 Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
-51.8% 0.5%
Brent Crude Oil
Palm Oil
125
Soya Oil
850
52
800
47
750
42
700
37
120 115 110 105 100 95 90 Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
650 Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
32 Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
12 mth:
-8.4%
YTD:
-2.5%
12 mth:
2.0%
YTD:
-0.3%
12 mth:
-25.5%
YTD:
0.8%
1 mth:
2.0%
1 Wk:
1.5%
1 mth:
4.5%
1 Wk:
4.0%
1 mth:
5.1%
1 Wk:
3.4%
Aluminium 2000
Tin
Steel
26000
4000
1950
3800
24000
1900
3600
1850
22000
1800
3400
1750
20000
3200
1700 1650 Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
18000 Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
3000 Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
12 mth:
-3.8%
YTD:
0.1%
12 mth:
-9.1%
YTD:
1.2%
12 mth:
-13.3%
YTD:
-0.6%
1 mth:
2.4%
1 Wk:
2.2%
1 mth:
1.5%
1 Wk:
2.1%
1 mth:
2.5%
1 Wk:
3.1%
Copper
Nickel
8500
Gold
19000
1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000
18000 8000
17000 16000
7500
15000 14000
7000
13000 6500 Feb-13
12000 May-13
Aug-13
May-13
Aug-13
12 mth:
-12.8%
YTD:
-3.2%
12 mth:
-23.0%
YTD:
1.9%
12 mth:
-21.1%
YTD:
7.4%
1 mth:
-2.2%
1 Wk:
-0.5%
1 mth:
-1.4%
1 Wk:
1.1%
1 mth:
3.7%
1 Wk:
3.3%
Source: Datastream, DBS Bank
Page 8
Nov-13
Feb-14
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
Feb-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
Straits Times Index Last Price S/No. 1 2 3
B'berg Code DBS SP ST SP OCBC SP
4
UOB SP
5
JM SP
6
KEP SP
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
JS SP HKL SP GENS SP GLP SP CAPL SP THBEV SP WIL SP SPH SP STE SP SGX SP CIT SP SIA SP SCI SP CT SP NOBL SP CD SP SMM SP JCNC SP HPHT SP GGR SP STH SP CMA SP OLAM SP SIE SP
Stock Name DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP
Last Day Vol
Avg Vol for the Week Rel STI MTD
Rel STI QTD
Rel STI YTD
Weight
Actual Mkt Cap
(%) 15 13 0
(%) 11.08 10.16 9.85
(S$m) 40,301 57,078 32,204
Crncy SGD SGD SGD
14-Feb-14 16.48 3.58 9.38
(000 Shrs) 2,839 26,171 4,793
(000 Shrs) 3,120 18,147 4,410
(%) 0 2 (4)
(%) 0 2 (4)
UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD
SGD
19.90
1,742
1,719
(2)
(2)
5
9.11
31,373
JARDINE MATHESON HLDGS LTD
USD
54.06
256
262
7
7
(9)
6.28
46,331
KEPPEL CORP LTD
SGD
10.43
3,234
3,337
(3)
(3)
(1)
5.77
18,865
JARDINE STRATEGIC HLDGS LTD HONGKONG LAND HOLDINGS LTD GENTING SINGAPORE PLC GLOBAL LOGISTICS CAPITALAND LTD THAI BEVERAGE PCL WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LTD SINGAPORE PRESS HOLDINGS LTD SINGAPORE TECHNOLOGIES ENG SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LTD CITY DEVELOPMENTS LTD SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD CAPITAMALL TRUST NOBLE GROUP LTD COMFORTDELGRO CORP LTD SEMBCORP MARINE LTD JARDINE CYCLE & CARRIAGE LTD HUTCHISON PORT HOLDINGS TRUST GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD STARHUB LTD CAPITAMALLS ASIA LTD OLAM INTERNATIONAL LTD SIA ENGINEERING CO LTD
USD USD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD
32.21 6.08 1.39 2.80 2.88 0.52 3.20 3.99 3.79 6.81 9.15 9.82 5.44 1.82 0.98 1.94 4.14 34.65 0.67 0.52 4.20 1.80 1.58 4.70
96 2,004 15,147 7,731 6,477 6,602 8,248 1,169 1,897 820 491 206 1,145 7,301 7,012 4,014 543 172 29,408 23,367 2,019 9,171 9,531 217
235 1,230 19,709 7,564 7,382 10,560 6,814 2,103 2,485 1,774 1,048 1,083 1,708 8,784 15,157 3,639 2,491 237 17,734 22,339 1,412 6,295 4,535 353
5 7 (3) 1 (1) (1) (2) 1 (0) (2) (1) (2) 3 (1) (5) 1 (3) 0 3 (1) 2 (4) 7 (3)
5 7 (3) 1 (1) (1) (2) 1 (0) (2) (1) (2) 3 (1) (5) 1 (3) 0 3 (1) 2 (4) 7 (3)
(5) (9) 4 5 (18) 34 (0) 3 3 1 (25) (5) 8 (11) (12) 13 (6) (24) (11) (16) 15 (3) 5 11
3.52 3.33 3.29 3.25 2.84 2.70 2.62 2.47 2.28 2.17 2.09 1.92 1.88 1.82 1.45 1.40 1.34 1.34 1.31 1.29 1.23 0.95 0.86 0.41
45,442 17,222 17,010 13,328 12,246 12,932 20,477 6,383 11,778 7,286 8,320 11,527 9,704 6,280 6,462 4,124 8,634 12,325 5,836 6,676 7,226 6,987 3,765 5,240
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Bank
Page 9
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
At A Glance
Announced Dividends and Capital Issues
Currencies
Other Important Indicators
Important Dates (Singapore)
Upcoming IPOs Nil
Recent IPO Trading
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Page 10
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
February 2014 Mon 3
Tues 4
Wed 5 Singapore Post 3Q 14
Thu 6 Asendas Hospitality Trust 3Q 14 SIA 3Q 14 Starhub 4Q 13
Electronic Exports (YoY) Purchasing Managers Index Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E
10
11 SATS 3Q 14 HPHT 4Q 13
12 Biosensors International 3Q 14 Challenger Technologies 4Q 13 Far East Hospitality Trust 4Q 13 Karin Technology 1H 14 Religare Health 3Q 14 Saizen REIT 2Q 14
18 Global Logistic Prop 3Q 14 Hengxin Technology 4Q 13
Monthly Property Sales Data Electronic Exports (YoY) Non-oil Domestic Exports (YoY) Non-oil Domestic Exp SA (MoM)
24 Asian Pay Television Trust 4Q 13 Raffles Medical Group 4Q 13 Sembcorp Marine 4Q 13 Super Group 4Q 13 XP Power 4Q 13 IFS Capital 4Q 13 Rickmers Maritime 4Q 13
19 Capitaland 4Q 13 Superbowl 4Q 13
Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E
25 First Resources 4Q 13 Pan-United 4Q 13 REC Solar 4Q 13 Avago Technologies Q1 14
CPI (MOM) - NSA CPI YoY
26 China Aviation 4Q 13 HTL International 4Q 13 Sembcorp Industries 4Q 13 China Yuchai 4Q 13
Great Eastern Hldgs 4Q 13 PCRT 4Q 13 UOI 4Q 13
Foreign Reserves
13 Amtek Engrg 2Q 14 ASL Marine 2Q 14 CapitaMalls Asia 4Q 13 ComfortDelgro 4Q 13 Lippo Malls Indo 4Q 13 Parkson Retail 2Q 14
Singapore Telecom 3Q 14 Tat Hong 3Q 14
17
Fri 7
20 Genting S 4Q 13 NOL 4Q 13 Sheng Siong 4Q 13 Wilmar 4Q 13 Ara Asset Management 4Q 13 Chip Eng Seng 4Q 13 Ezion 4Q 13
14 DBS Group 4Q 13 Croesus Retail 2Q 14 Court 3Q 14 OCBC 4Q 13 Olam 2Q 14 UOB 4Q 13 Global Logistics Properties 3Q 14 indiabulls Properties 3Q 14 Retail Sales Ex Auto YoY Retail Sales YoY Retail Sales (MoM) sa
21 Aztech 4Q 13 Hiap Hoe 4Q 13 Nobel 4Q 13 QAF 4Q 13
GDP SAAR QoQ GDP YoY
27 China Merchant Hldgs 4Q 13 City Developments 4Q 13 Mewah International 4Q 13 Ho Bee 4Q 13 ST Engineering 4Q 13 Yongnam 4Q 13
28 Bumitama 4Q 13 Golden Agri 4Q 13 Indofood Agri 4Q 13 Straco Corp 4Q 13 UOL Group 4Q 13
Industrial Production MoM SA Industrial Production YoY Unemployment rate SA Bank Loans & Advances (YoY) Credit Card Bad Debts Credit Card Billings M1 Money Supply (YoY) M2 Money Supply (YoY)
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly DBS Bank Ltd recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
Share price appreciation + dividends Traders Spectrum’s product is oriented towards readers with either a short-term trading horizon. It aims to highlight topical themes, which may move stock prices on a daily basis. Readers should be aware that “TS Take” relies more on assessments of technical factors, likely sentiment responses and short term money flows, rather than on fundamental analysis. As such the “TS Take” may from time to time conflict with fundamental ratings (where stocks are ranked to Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Fully Valued and Sell on a 12 month basis), which are maintained by DBS Bank Ltd analysts. In keeping with the short-term orientation of the product, a stock highlighted may or may not be covered or commented on on an ongoing basis. GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd and DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates (collectively, the “DBS Vickers Group”) only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS Bank Ltd. The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS Bank Ltd., its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively, the “DBS Group”)) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that: (a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and (b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments stated therein. Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies) mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the commodity referred to in this report. DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA")"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of the date the report is published,the analyst and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities).
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Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES 1. DBS Bank Ltd., DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates do not have a proprietary position in the securities recommended in this report as of 31 Dec 2013 except for CapitaMall Asia, Genting S, Keppel Corp, Ezion, Capitaland, Keppel Land, Bumitama, Venture Corp, Mapletree Greater China Commercial, CapitaRetail China Trust, Hutchison Port Hldgs Trust, ST Engineering, Yangzijiang, ComfortDelgro, Perennial China Retail Trust, SATS, Far East Hospitality, Religare Health Trust recommended in this report as of 31 Dec 2013. 2.
DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates beneficially own a total of 1% of any class of common equity securities of Mapletree Greater China as of 31 Dec 2013.
3.
Compensation for investment banking services: DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have received compensation, within the past 12 months, and within the next 3 months have receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from CapitaMalls Asia, Ezion, Capitaland, Keppel Land, Mapletree Greater China Commercial, CapitaRetail China Trust, Pacific Radiance, Far East Hospitality Trust. DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.
4.
Directorship/trustee interests: Danny Teoh Leong Kay, a member of DBS Group Holdings Board of Directors is a Director of Keppel Corporation as of 28 Feb 2013. Nihal Vijaya Devadas Kaviratne CBE, a member of DBS Group Holdings Board of Directors is a Director of SATS Corporation as of 28 Feb 2013.
RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Australia
This report is not for distribution into Australia.
Hong Kong
This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited which is licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.
Indonesia
This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia.
Malaysia
This report is distributed in Malaysia by HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd ("HDBSVR"). Recipients of this report, received from HDBSVR are to contact the undersigned at 603-2711 2222 in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with this report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer by DBS Bank Ltd, the preparer of this report found at the preceding page, recipients of this report are advised that HDBSVR, its holding company HwangDBS Investment Bank Berhad, their directors, employees and parties related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services for the subject companies. They may also have received compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services from the subject companies.
Wong Ming Tek Head of Research, HDBSVR Singapore
This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) or DBSVS (Company Regn No. 198600294G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6327 2288 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
Thailand
This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd. Research reports distributed are only intended for institutional clients only and no other person may act upon it.
United Kingdom
This report is being distributed in the UK by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd, who is an authorised person in the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act and is regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Research distributed in the UK is intended only for institutional clients.
Dubai
This research report is being distributed in The Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”) by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) rd having its office at PO Box 506538, 3 Floor, Building 3, East Wing, Gate Precinct, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. This research report is intended only for professional clients (as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it.
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Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
United States
Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be taken or distributed into the United States or to any U.S. person except in compliance with any applicable U.S. laws and regulations. It is being distributed in the United States by DBSVUSA, which accepts responsibility for its contents. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact DBSVUSA directly and not its affiliate.
Other jurisdictions
In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for qualified, professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions. DBS Bank Ltd. 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3 Singapore 018982 Tel. 65-6878 8888 Company Regn. No. 196800306E
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