28/09/2015 Singapore Traders Spectrum
Wired Weekly Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
DBS Group Research . Equity
28 September 2015
KEY POINTS
STI – Downside bias to 2750 over next 2-3 weeks, undershoot to 2660 possible but 2870 rebound follows USD/SGD – Upside bias to 1.45 by mid-October before correcting Technical recession risk – SPH downward bias to $3.60, City Developments near-term support at c.$7.70 but upside capped at/below $8.50
Wired Weekly Sentiment continues to be affected by the slowdown in Asia, rising risk of a technical recession here in Singapore and the weak SGD against the USD. We keep our view for the STI to trek a downward bias to 2750, likely over the next 2-3 weeks. A technical ‘undershoot’ within this period towards 2660 is possible but should be followed by a rebound to 2870 at least. Investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the October MAS policy meeting and the release of Singapore’s 3Q GDP on 14 October. A negative reading signals a technical recession. The prospect of a MAS policy easing next month, coupled with continued possibility of a US rate hike in December, should underpin the USD/SGD. Near-term support is at 1.415. We maintain our view upward bias towards 1.45. We now see the USD/SGD heading to 1.45 by mid-October (previous end-October) before correcting. The risk of a technical recession continues to weigh down on large caps such as banks, City Developments and SPH, stocks that are seen as proxies to the Singapore economy. Our negative technical view on City Development shares are panning out as expected as the stock dipped as low as $7.82 last week. Technically, we see further downside limited around $7.70 in the near-term. A subsequent oversold rebound is possible but the triple whammy of weak demand, rising supply and higher mortgage rates that affects Singapore residential properties going forward will likely cap rebound upside at $8.50. For SPH, we note resistance at $3.95. Fibonacci projection shows downside risk to $3.75 followed by $3.60.
Straits Times Index
FTSE Small Cap Index
ST Index
3,600
540
3,500
520
3,400
500
3,300
480
3,200
460
3,100
440 420
3,000
400
2,900 2,800 Sep-14
380 Dec-14
Mar-15
J un-15
Sep-15
STI and 12-mth forward PE
www.dbsvickers.com ed: TH / sa: JC
Dec-14
US$/barrel 105
3800 +0.5SD @ 14.5x
3600 3400
Average @ 13.8x
3200
-0.5SD @ 13.0x
3000
-1SD @ 12.2x
2800 Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Mar-15
J un-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Brent Crude Oil
95 85 75 65 55 45 35 Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
J un-15
Sep-15
Source: Datastream, DBS Bank
FTSE Indices 5-Day Performance F T SE Sec t oral Indic es STI Mid Cap Small Cap All Share China Real Estate Real Estate & Dev Real Estate Inv Trust Oil & Gas Basic Materials Industrials Consumer Goods Health Care Consumer Serv ice Telecommunication Utilities F inancials Technology
Index @ 25- Sep- 15 2,832.64 667.77 408.88 686.62 202.05 681.15 679.34 694.19 424.65 100.50 668.76 417.61 1,397.79 727.87 946.65 450.41 757.69 302.82
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Yeo Kee Yan (65) 6682 3706
[email protected]
360 Sep-14
Brent Crude Oil
4000
2600 Jan-13
FTSE Small Cap Index
560
1 Wk % Chg -1.6 -0.7 -0.2 -0.9 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.0 -3.0 -1.6 1.5 1.9 -2.3 -0.7 -3.9 0.2 -1.3 3.4
YTD % Chg -15.8 -10.8 -16.9 -14.7 -8.9 -9.9 -8.9 -10.9 -26.5 -19.9 -17.2 -14.8 20.9 -13.2 -7.6 -4.9 -14.4 -26.4
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
Singapore Market Summary Our caution last week to not interpret the Fed rate hike delay positively has turned out right. The benchmark STI ended the week down 47pts (-1.6%), weighed by banks, SingTel, SGX and Keppel Corp. Once again, concerns about a slowdown in Asia, rising risk of a technical recession here in Singapore and a weak SGD against the USD has weighed on stocks. We continue to see the STI trekking a downward bias to 2750, likely over the next 2-3 weeks. A technical ‘undershoot’ within this period towards 2660 is possible but should be followed by a rebound to 2870 at least. This is busy week for US data releases. With a December Fed rate hike still a possibility, attention turns to the September job numbers scheduled for release on Friday. Consensus expects 200k (previous 173k) non-farm payrolls with the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.1%. Technical charts - USD/SGD at 1.45 by mid-Oct before correcting Singapore’s CPI for August declined 0.8% y-o-y, lower than consensus' expectation of a -0.6% drop. Core inflation was also weaker than expected at +0.2% (consensus +0.3%).
August marks the 10th consecutive month of negative inflation. At the same time, August industrial product fell a worse-than-expected 7% y-o-y (consensus -5.3%). Our economist believes that with the Singapore economy facing the risk of a technical recession and FY inflation expected to be negative, risks are rising that the MAS will ease its policy in October. Meanwhile in the US, Fed Chair Janet Yellen commented that she still expects rates to head higher this year, unless there is a negative surprise in the economy. The prospect of a MAS policy easing next month, coupled with continued possibility of a US rate hike in December, should underpin the USD/SGD. Technically, the rebound in the USD/SGD to 1.42 from 1.39 is within our expectation (refer to Wired Daily dated 18 September). Near-term support is at 1.415. We maintain our upward bias view towards 1.45. Our earlier view was that this level can be attained by end-October. Noting the intersection point of the two rising trend channels (refer to chart below), we fine-tune our earlier view – we now see the USD/SGD heading to 1.45 by mid-October before correcting.
USDSGD: Daily
Source: DBS Bank
Weak SGD & technical recession risk weigh on proxies to SG economy
1-mth relative performance for banks
Singapore’s 3Q GDP is scheduled for release on 14 October. A weak SGD over the next 2-3 weeks and the risk of a technical recession should continue to weigh down on large caps such as banks, City Developments and SPH, stocks that are seen as proxies to the Singapore economy. Among the three banks, OCBC and UOB shares outperformed the STI, while DBS underperformed in the past one month.
Page 2
Source: DBS Bank
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly City Developments – Limited near-term downside c$7.70, subsequent bounce cap $8.50 Our negative technical view on City Development shares are panning out as expected (refer to Wired Weekly dated 24th August). The stock dipped as low as $7.82 last week. Technically, we see further downside limited around $7.70 in the near-term. A subsequent oversold rebound is possible but upside is seen capped at $8.50 as the triple whammy of weak demand, rising supply and higher mortgage rates will likely weigh down on physical residential property prices in Singapore over the next 2-3 years.
SPH – Downside risk to $3.60 Advertising revenue for SPH is relatively correlated to GDP. Thus, our analyst believes that Adex is likely to be impacted negatively in a less positive macroeconomic setting. We had downgraded the stock to Fully Valued with a $3.51 TP. Technical charts support the negative view. Resistance is at $3.95. Fibonacci projection shows downside risk to $3.75 followed by $3.60.
SPH (Daily)
Source: DBS Bank
Page 3
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly Top large and small / mid cap picks
TOP LARGE CAP PICKS Re com
Pri c e
Ta rg e t Pri c e
Up s i d e
Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust
Buy
0.920
1.12
22%
1) V isible organic growth 2) Portfolio of quality assets
SembCorp Industries
Buy
3.530
4.00
13%
1) India growth to mitigate weakness in Singapore. 2) Utilities' pipeline projects will progressively add to earnings
Singapore Airlines
Buy
10.810
11.50
6%
1) Earnings to recover as fuel cost savings kick-in. Dividend should also increase to DPS of at least 40Scts, or 60% payout. 2) Earnings recovery expected to drive share price re-rating.
Compa ny
Ca ta lys t
TOP SMALL / MID CAP PICKS Re com
Pri c e
Ta rg e t Pri c e
Up s i d e
China Merchants
Buy
0.890
1.45
63%
1) Organic growth to continue 2) Acquisitions of three toll roads in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region provide more scale and longer-term growth for CMHP
V enture Corporation
Buy
8.360
9.00
8%
1) Beneficiary of the strong US dollar and weak ringgit. 2) Strong balance sheet and net cash position to support dividend pay out of 50Scts, with a yield of c.6%.
Compa ny
Ca ta lys t
Source: DBS Bank
Major research reports released last week Compa ny
Re comme nda tion T a rge t Price ( $)
Ke y Points
Sembcorp Industries Buy
S$4.00
OUE Commercial REIT
Hold
S$0.67
Dairy Farm
Buy
US$3.74
1) Upgrade to BUY on compelling valuations. 2) Core business valued at -1.5SD of its 7-year mean. 3) Growth supported by store expansion, better efficiencies.
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust
Hold
US$0.62
1) Upgrade from HOLD on attractive valuations. 2) Modest throughput growth outlook. 3) High dividend payout backed by strong cash flows.
ASEAN Consumer
-
-
Food for thought: Watch your diet
Source: DBS Bank
Page 4
1) 2) 3) 1) 2) 3)
Propose to divest 40% stake in SembSita to JV partner Expect net disposal gain of S$350m by end of 4Q15 Potential upside to DPS by 6-7 Scts; lifting dividend yield from 4% to 6% Reiterate BUY; TP S$4.00 Earnings upside from acquisition of One Raffles Place Sponsor’s income support offers earnings stability through a potentially volatile 2016-2017 Initiate coverage with HOLD call, TP S$0.67
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly Shanghai Composite Index 5,500
Hang Seng Index 29,000
Shanghai Comp Index
4,900 4,300
10,000
27,000
9,600 8,800
24,000
2,500 Dec-14
Mar-15
J un-15
Sep-15
34.1%
Y T D:
- 2.8%
6.0%
1 Wk :
1.8%
1 mt h:
23,000
8,400
22,000
8,000
21,000
7,600
20,000 Sep-14 12 mt h: 1 mt h:
Nikkei Index
Dec-14
Mar-15
J un-15
Sep-15
7,200 Sep-14
18,500
20,000
18,000
19,000
- 10.6%
12 mt h:
- 10.7%
Y T D:
- 12.7%
- 3.5%
1 mt h:
5.8%
1 Wk :
- 3.8%
NASDAQ Index 5,400
Dow J ones
5,000 4,800 4,600
16,500
15,000
16,000
4,400
14,000
15,500
4,200
13,000 Sep-14
15,000 Sep-14
12 mt h: 1 mt h:
Mar-15
J un-15
Sep-15
8.7%
Y T D:
0.7%
- 1.3%
1 Wk :
- 4.7%
12 mt h: 1 mt h:
USD/SGD
Dec-14
Mar-15
J un-15
Sep-15
- 9.1%
12 mt h:
3.9%
Y T D:
0.0%
- 2.8%
1 mt h:
5.1%
1 Wk :
- 3.3%
Euro/USD 1.35
usd/J PY
1.25 1.20
12 mt h: 1 mt h:
J un-15
12.2% 1.2%
Sep-15
Y T D:
7. 3%
1 Wk :
1. 7%
12 mt h:
Dec-14 10. 1%
1 mt h:
1.0%
5.00
usd/RMB
6.45
Mar-15
J un-15
Sep-15
1.00 Sep-14
6.30
4.70
6.25
4.60
6.20
Dec-14
Mar-15
J un-15
Sep-15
4.0%
Y T D:
2.9%
- 0.5%
1 Wk :
0.3%
4.30 Sep-14 12 mt h: 1 mt h:
Sep-15
0. 3%
12 mt h:
- 11.8%
Y T D:
- 6.7%
1 mt h:
- 1.1%
1 Wk :
- 0.2%
AUD/SGD 1.20
sgd/RMB
A$/SGD
1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95
4.40
6.10
J un-15
0. 1%
4.50
6.15
Mar-15
Y T D:
4.80
6.35
Dec-14
1 Wk :
4.90
6.40
1 mt h:
1.05
SGD/RMB
6.50
12 mt h:
1.10
100 Sep-14
USD/RMB
6.05 Sep-14
1.15
105 Mar-15
Euro/USD
1.30
110
Dec-14
Sep-15
Y T D:
115
1.25
J un-15
1 Wk :
120
1.30
Mar-15
3.4%
125
1.35
Dec-14
- 5.9%
130
usd/SGD
1.40
1.20 Sep-14
4,000 Sep-14
USD/JPY
1.45
Nasdaq
5,200
16,000
Dec-14
Sep-15
Y T D:
17,000
17,000
J un-15
1 Wk :
17,500
18,000
Mar-15
- 1.4%
19,000
Nikkei 225 Index
21,000
Dec-14
- 11.8%
Dow Jones Industrials
22,000
Taiwan Index
9,200
25,000
3,100
12 mt h:
10,400
Hang Seng Index
28,000 26,000
3,700
1,900 Sep-14
Taiwan Index
Dec-14
Mar-15
J un-15
Sep-15
0.90 Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
J un-15
Sep-15
- 7.8%
Y T D:
- 4.8%
12 mt h:
- 11.3%
Y T D:
- 8.0%
- 2.4%
1 Wk :
- 1.8%
1 mt h:
- 1.3%
1 Wk :
- 0.7%
Source: Datastream, DBS Bank
Page 5
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly Baltic Dry Index 1,600
Volatility Index 44
Baltic Dry Index
32
0.15
24 20
800
0.10
16
600
1 mt h:
0.20
28
1,000
0.05
12 Dec-14
J un-15
Mar-15
Sep-15
- 12.7%
Y T D:
17.9%
- 2.1%
1 Wk :
4.4%
Brent Crude Oil US$/barrel 105
8 Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
J un-15
Sep-15
Palm Oil US$/ton 750
Brent Crude Oil
0.00 Sep-14
Palm Oil
700
36
650
34
75
600
32
65
550
30
55
500
28
45
450
26
35 Sep-14
400 Sep-14
12 mt h: 1 mt h:
J un-15
Sep-15
- 50.3%
Y T D:
- 15.4%
9.9%
1 Wk :
- 2.0%
Aluminium
12 mt h:
0.7%
J un-15
Sep-15
24 Sep-14
J un-15
Sep-15
Soy a Oil
Dec-14
Mar-15
12 mt h:
- 23.0%
Y T D:
- 17.8%
1 mt h:
- 2.3%
1 Wk :
1.7%
Steel RMB/MT 3,000
Tin
Steel (rebar)
2,800 2,600 2,400
17,000
1,700
15,000
1,600 Sep-14
13,000 Sep-14
Dec-14
J un-15
Mar-15
Sep-15
- 19.6%
Y T D:
- 6.9%
- 0.3%
1 Wk :
- 1.2%
Copper
12 mt h:
2,200 2,000 Dec-14
Mar-15
J un-15
Sep-15
7,000
18,000
6,500
16,000
6,000
14,000
5,500
12,000
5,000
10,000 Dec-14 - 25.3% - 0.6%
J un-15
Mar-15
Y T D: 1 Wk :
Source: Datastream, DBS Bank
Sep-15 - 20.5% - 6.3%
1 mt h:
Mar-15
J un-15
Sep-15
Y T D:
- 21.0%
12 mt h:
- 27.7%
Y T D:
- 23.0%
1 Wk :
- 1.8%
1 mt h:
- 3.5%
1 Wk :
- 1.0%
Gold US$/Ounce 1,350
Nickel
Gold
1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050
8,000 Sep-14 12 mt h:
Dec-14
7.0%
US$/MT 20,000
Copper
1,800 Sep-14
- 27.8%
1 mt h:
Nickel
US$/MT 7,500
Page 6
- 26.8%
19,000
1,800
1 mt h:
Y T D: 1 Wk :
21,000
1,900
12 mt h:
Sep-15
10.6%
23,000
2,000
4,500 Sep-14
J un-15
- 28.1%
1 mt h:
US$/MT
Aluminium
2,100
1 mt h:
Mar-15
Tin
US$/MT 2,200
12 mt h:
Dec-14
Mar-15
Soya Oil
85
Mar-15
Dec-14
US$/Ib 38
95
Dec-14
F ed Funds Rate
0.25
36
1,200
12 mt h:
0.30
V olatility Index
40
1,400
400 Sep-14
Fed Funds Rate
Dec-14
Mar-15
J un-15
- 43. 0%
Y T D:
- 34.5%
3.1%
1 Wk :
- 0.8%
Sep-15
1,000 Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
J un-15
Sep-15
12 mt h:
- 5.2%
Y T D:
- 2.7%
1 mt h:
1.7%
1 Wk :
3.3%
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
Straits Times Index S/No.
B'berg Code
St oc k Name
1 2 3 4
DBS SP OCBC SP ST SP UOB SP
DBS OCBC Bk SingTel UOB
Crncy SGD SGD SGD SGD
L ast Day A v g V ol f or L ast Pric e V ol t he Week 25- Sep- 15 (000 Shrs) (000 Shrs) 16.77 8.91 3.64 18.81
8,364 7,238 45,334 2,834
8,117 7,221 28,472 2,876
Rel ST I MTD (%)
Rel ST I QT D (%)
Rel ST I YTD (%)
Weight (%)
A c t ual M k t Cap (S$m)
(3) 3 0 0
(4) 2 1 (4)
(3) 1 9 (7)
13.2 12.5 11.5 10.0
41,980 36,093 58,035 30,139
5
HKL SP
HKLand US$
USD
6.72
3,295
2,510
0
(3)
15
5.0
21,546
6
KEP SP
Keppel Corp
SGD
6.82
4,886
5,307
3
(2)
(7)
4.3
12,371
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
CAPL SP THBEV SP GLP SP SPH SP SGX SP CD SP WIL SP SIA SP CT SP CIT SP AREIT SP STE SP GENS SP HPHT SP SCI SP J CNC SP UOL SP SATS SP YZJ SGD SP STH SP GGR SP NOBL SP SMM SP SIE SP
Capitaland Thai Bev erage PCL Global Logistics Properties SPH SGX ComfortDelGro Wilmar SIA CapitaMall City Dev elopments A-REIT ST Engg Genting SP HPHT (US$) Semb Corp J ardine C&C UOL Group SATS Yangzijiang StarHub GoldenAgr Noble Grp SembMar SIA Engg
SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD USD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD SGD
2.79 0.71 2.03 3.89 7.26 2.81 2.64 10.61 1.91 7.90 2.30 2.88 0.73 0.560 3.53 27.96 6.03 3.930 1.13 3.57 0.315 0.46 2.34 3.69
11,580 19,129 21,934 2,996 3,343 10,649 7,650 1,028 11,995 1,397 14,646 3,544 20,775 18,299 8,519 286 1,419 1,696 17,016 2,051 36,951 48,491 1,325 193
8,409 18,599 24,609 3,165 3,841 6,264 6,948 1,313 9,025 1,201 13,746 2,433 18,476 14,408 8,167 226 1,255 2,287 12,801 1,561 23,832 41,865 2,356 263
2 2 (6) 2 3 3 (4) 10 2 (7) 6 (3) (2) 10 6 1 (1) 13 6 1 3 (13) 1 8
(6) 7 (5) 10 7 4 (5) 13 3 (5) 8 2 (4) 3 5 (1) 2 21 (6) 5 (9) (26) (3) 11
0 18 (2) 8 9 24 (3) 7 9 (7) 12 2 (17) (3) (5) (17) 2 45 10 2 (16) (44) (12) 3
3.1 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.4
11,907 17,703 9,702 6,214 7,780 6,037 16,730 12,352 6,599 7,183 5,538 8,938 8,758 6,953 6,304 11,051 4,801 4,364 4,330 6,169 4,011 2,974 4,889 4,145
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Page 7
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly At A Glance Currencies
SG$/US$ Yen/US$ US$/Euro AUS$/US$ Pound/US$
Announced Dividends and Capital Issues
Last Close
Pt s c hg
% Chg 1 wk 1.9
1.43
0.0
120.38
0.4
0.3
0.89
0.0
0.9
1.42
0.0
2.4
1.52
(0.0)
(2.1)
Pt s c hg 1w k
% Chg 1 wk
Other Important Indicators Last Close Gold
1146.77
7.8
0.7
Crude Oil
45.70
1.0
2.3
2.16
0.0
1.3
US$ Yield 10-year
Important Dates (Singapore) Eve nt Money Supply M1 YoY Money Supply M2 YoY Bank Loans and Advances YoY Credit Card Billings Credit Card Bad Debts Purchasing Managers Index Electronics Sector Index Nikkei Singapore PMI GDP YoY GDP SAAR QoQ Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E Foreign Reserves Retail Sales SA MoM Retail Sales YoY Retail Sales Ex Auto YoY Non-oil Domestic Exports SA MoM Electronic Exports YoY Non-oil Domestic Exports YoY Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E CPI NSA MoM CPI YoY CPI Core YoY Industrial Production SA MoM Industrial Production YoY Unemployment rate SA Money Supply M1 YoY Money Supply M2 YoY Bank Loans and Advances YoY Credit Card Billings Credit Card Bad Debts
Pe riod Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep 3Q A 3Q A Oct Oct Oct Sep Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Oct Oct Oct Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep 3Q Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep
Da te 29-Sep-15 29-Sep-15 29-Sep-15 29-Sep-15 29-Sep-15 1-Oct-15 1-Oct-15 4-Oct-15 4-Oct-15 4-Oct-15 7-Oct-15 7-Oct-15 7-Oct-15 7-Oct-15 15-Oct-15 15-Oct-15 15-Oct-15 15-Oct-15 15-Oct-15 15-Oct-15 21-Oct-15 21-Oct-15 21-Oct-15 23-Oct-15 23-Oct-15 23-Oct-15 26-Oct-15 26-Oct-15 28-Oct-15 29-Oct-15 29-Oct-15 29-Oct-15 29-Oct-15 29-Oct-15
Company
T y pe
Part iculars
AIMS PROPERTY SECURITIES FUND ASIATIC GROUP (HOLDINGS) LTD MURATA MF G CO. LTD 100 OSIM INTERNATIONAL LTD SHANGRI-LA ASIA LIMITED TOP GLOBAL LIMITED CH OF FSHORE LTD CH OF FSHORE LTD IPS SECUREX HOLDINGS LIMITED SUNNINGDALE TECH LTD CHASEN HOLDINGS LIMITED FALCON ENERGY GROUP LIMITED SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED OUE LIMITED OUE LIMITED LIAN BENG GROUP LTD LIAN BENG GROUP LTD UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED SELECT GROUP LIMITED YUEXIU PROPERTY CO LIMITED NOEL GIF TS INTERNATIONAL LTD NOEL GIF TS INTERNATIONAL LTD CIMB S&P ASIA PACIFIC DIV IDEND CIMB S&P ASIA PACIFIC DIV IDEND TEE LAND LIMITED CORDLIFE GROUP LIMITED GUOCOLAND LIMITED ELLIPSIZ LTD SINGAPURA FINANCE LTD RYOBI KISO HOLDINGS LTD. TAI SIN ELECTRIC LIMITED BRITISH & MALAYAN TRUSTEES LTD BRITISH & MALAYAN TRUSTEES LTD CHOSEN HOLDINGS LIMITED GUOCOLEISURE LIMITED SILV ERLAKE AXIS LTD PARKSON RETAIL ASIA LIMITED SPINDEX INDUSTRIES LIMITED AV I-TECH ELECTRONICS LIMITED EU YAN SANG INTERNATIONAL LTD INTERPLEX HOLDINGS LTD. MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS) LTD MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS) LTD ASL MARINE HOLDINGS LTD SANTAK HOLDINGS LIMITED TEE INTERNATIONAL LIMITED KARIN TECHNOLOGY HLDGS LIMITED MULTI-CHEM LIMITED DATAPULSE TECHNOLOGY LIMITED TEE INTERNATIONAL LIMITED AV I-TECH ELECTRONICS LIMITED
DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND ENTITL. DIV IDEND DIV IDEND ENTITL. ENTITL. DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND DIV IDEND
ESTIMATED AUD 0.001221 SGD 0.0004 ONE-TIER TAX J PY 100 LESS TAX SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX HKD 0.05 SHARE CONSO OFFER OF 1 FOR 100 SGD 0.125 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX SHARE SPLIT OF FER OF 3 FOR 1 SHARE CONSOL OF FER OF 1 FOR 5 SGD 0.001 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.16 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.03 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX HKD 0.029 SGD 0.024 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.006 ONE-TIER TAX USD 0.035 USD 0.007 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.0061 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.05 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.004 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.015 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.25 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.027 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.0083 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.022 SGD 0.012 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.028 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.003 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.015 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.01 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.004 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.005 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.004 ONE-TIER TAX HKD 0.09 SGD 0.0111 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.002 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.0015 ONE-TIER TAX SGD 0.007 ONE-TIER TAX
Ex Dat e
Paid/ Pay able
28-Sep-15 28-Sep-15 28-Sep-15 28-Sep-15 28-Sep-15 28-Sep-15 29-Sep-15 29-Sep-15 29-Sep-15 29-Sep-15 30-Sep-15 30-Sep-15 30-Sep-15 01-Oct-15 01-Oct-15 06-Oct-15 06-Oct-15 06-Oct-15 08-Oct-15 09-Oct-15 12-Oct-15 12-Oct-15 13-Oct-15 13-Oct-15 15-Oct-15 21-Oct-15 23-Oct-15 27-Oct-15 27-Oct-15 28-Oct-15 28-Oct-15 29-Oct-15 29-Oct-15 29-Oct-15 29-Oct-15 30-Oct-15 02-Nov-15 02-Nov-15 03-Nov-15 03-Nov-15 03-Nov-15 03-Nov-15 03-Nov-15 04-Nov-15 05-Nov-15 05-Nov-15 09-Nov-15 12-Nov-15 13-Nov-15 02-Dec-15 15-F eb-16
18-Dec-15 15-Oct-15 30-Nov-15 07-Oct-15 09-Oct-15 13-Oct-15 13-Oct-15
28-Oct-15 23-Oct-15 09-Oct-15 15-Oct-15 15-Oct-15 16-Oct-15 16-Oct-15 28-Oct-15 27-Oct-15 11-Nov-15 23-Oct-15 23-Oct-15 27-Oct-15 27-Oct-15 09-Nov-15 06-Nov-15 18-Nov-15 18-Nov-15 09-Nov-15 06-Nov-15 09-Nov-15 20-Nov-15 20-Nov-15 16-Nov-15 20-Nov-15 17-Nov-15 13-Nov-15 19-Nov-15 18-Nov-15 20-Nov-15 20-Nov-15 18-Nov-15 18-Nov-15 17-Nov-15 18-Nov-15 20-Nov-15 26-Nov-15 27-Nov-15 27-Nov-15 18-Dec-15 29-Feb-16
Upcoming IPOs NIL
Recent IPO Trading Company Name V ersalink Holdings Ltd ISEC Healthcare Ltd Serrano Ltd/Singapore MS Holdings Ltd Zico Holdings Inc Huationg Global Ltd mm2 Asia Ltd UG Healthcare Corp Ltd iF AST Corp Ltd Keppel DC REIT LHN Ltd GCCP Resources Ltd Singapore O&G Ltd iX Biopharma Ltd NauticAWT Ltd iX Biopharma Ltd NauticAWT Ltd Choo Chiang Holdings Ltd CMC Infocomm Limited Soo Kee Group Limited TLV Holdings Ltd
Surce: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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IPO Share Pric e 0.30 0.28 0.23 0.25 0.30 0.20 0.25 0.22 0.95 0.93 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.46 0.20 0.46 0.20 0.35 0.25 0.30 0.22
L ast Close 0.159 0.220 0.085 0.090 0.375 0.230 0.580 0.255 1.300 1.015 0.133 0.126 0.645 0.290 0.225 0.290 0.225 0.360 0.164 0.195 0.215
ICB Sec t or Name Household Goods & Home Construction Health Care Equipment & Serv ices Construction & Materials Industrial Engineering Support Serv ices Construction & Materials Media Health Care Equipment & Serv ices Media Real Estate Inv estment Trusts Real Estate Inv estment & Serv ices Mining Health Care Equipment & Serv ices Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Oil Equipment, Serv ices & Distribution Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Oil Equipment, Serv ices & Distribution Household Goods & Home Construction Technology Hardware & Equipment General Retailers General Retailers
IPO Dat e 24/09/2014 28/10/2014 28/10/2014 07/11/2014 11/11/2014 09/12/2014 09/12/2014 08/12/2014 11/12/2014 12/12/2014 13/04/2015 30/04/2015 04/06/2015 22/07/2015 23/07/2015 22/07/2015 23/07/2015 29/07/2015 13/08/2015 20/08/2015 17/09/2015
No. of Share 135 459 300 102 282 151 207 188 261 883 362 1,193 218 590 189 590 189 208 152 563 566
IPO M k t Cap 41 128 69 26 85 30 52 40 248 821 83 274 55 271 38 271 38 73 38 169 124
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
September 2015 Mon
Tues 1
Wed 2
Myanmar Investments Int'l 2Q 15
Thu 3 Choo Chiang Hldgs 2Q1 5
Fri 4 Atlantis Resources 2Q 15 Stamford Tyrees 1Q 16
Electronic Exports YoY Nikkei Singapore PMI Purchasing Managers Index
7 Avation Plc 4Q 15
8 Kenon Hldgs 2Q 15 Jacks Int'l 2Q 16
Ipco Int'l 1Q 16 Soo Kee Group 2Q 15 Vibrant Group 1Q 16
15
16
Low Keng Huat 2Q 16 XMH Holdings 1Q 16
11 ecoWise 3Q 15
17
18
Datapulse Technology 4Q 15 LionGold Corp 1Q 16
Retail Sales SA MoM Retail Sales YoY Retail Sales Ex Auto YoY
21
10
Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E
Foreign Reserves Manpower Survey
14
9
22
Electronic Exports YoY Non-oil Domestic Exports SA MoM Non-oil Domestic Exports YoY
23
24
25
LionGold Corp 4Q 15
Bloomberg Sept Spore Economic Survey CPI NSA MoM CPI YoY CPI Core YoY Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E
28
29
Industrial Production SA MoM Industrial Production YoY
30
Bank Loans and Advances YoY Credit Card Bad Debts Credit Card Billings Money Supply M1 YoY Money Supply M2 YoY
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
October 2015 Mon
Tues
Wed
Thu 1
Fri 2
Purchasing Managers Index Electronics Sector Index
5
6
7
8
9
15
16
Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E Foreign Reserves
12
13
14
SPH REIT FY15
Retail Sales SA MoM Retail Sales YoY Retail Sales Ex Auto YoY Non-oil Domestic Exports SA MoM Electronic Exports YoY Non-oil Domestic Exports YoY
19
20 Mapletree Industrial Trust 2Q16
21 Singapore Exchange 1Q16 Mapletree Commercial Trust 2Q16
22 EMAS Offshore FY15 REC Solar ASA 3Q15
CPI NSA MoM CPI YoY CPI Core YoY
Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E
26
27
Industrial Production SA MoM Industrial Production YoY
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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28
Unemployment rate SA
23
29
Money Supply M1 YoY Money Supply M2 YoY Bank Loans and Advances YoY Credit Card Billings Credit Card Bad Debts
30
Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly
DBS Bank Ltd recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
Share price appreciation + dividends Traders Spectrum’s product is oriented towards readers with either a short-term trading horizon. It aims to highlight topical themes, which may move stock prices on a daily basis. Readers should be aware that “TS Take” relies more on assessments of technical factors, likely sentiment responses and short term money flows, rather than on fundamental analysis. As such the “TS Take” may from time to time conflict with fundamental ratings (where stocks are ranked to Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Fully Valued and Sell on a 12 month basis), which are maintained by DBS Bank Ltd analysts. In keeping with the short-term orientation of the product, a stock highlighted may or may not be covered or commented on on an ongoing basis.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd and DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates (collectively, the “DBS Vickers Group”) only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS Bank Ltd. The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBS Bank Ltd., its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents (collectively, the “DBS Group”)) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS Group, along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. The DBS Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that: (a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and (b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments stated therein. Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies) mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the commodity referred to in this report. DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA")"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of the date the report is published, the analyst and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities). COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES 1. DBS Bank Ltd., DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates do not have a proprietary position in the securities recommended in this report as of 31 Aug 2015 except City Development, DBS Bank Ltd. Hutchison Port Holdings Trust, Keppel Corporation, Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, OCBC, Sembcorp Industries Singapore Airlines, Singapore Exchange, SingTel, SPH, UOB, Venture Corporation
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Singapore Traders Spectrum Wired Weekly 2.
DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates may beneficially own a total of 1% of any class of common equity securities of the company mentioned as of 31 Aug 2015.
3.
Compensation for investment banking services: DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have received compensation, within the past 12 months, and within the next 3 months may receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Keppel Corporation, OUE Commercial REIT DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.
RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Australia
This report is being distributed in Australia by DBS Bank Ltd. (“DBS”) or DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”), both of which are exempted from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporation Act 2001 (“CA”) in respect of financial services provided to the recipients. Both DBS and DBSVS are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the laws of Singapore, which differ from Australian laws. Distribution of this report is intended only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA.
Hong Kong
This report is being distributed in Hong Kong by DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) Limited which is licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.
Indonesia
This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia.
Malaysia
This report is distributed in Malaysia by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ("ADBSR"). Recipients of this report, received from ADBSR are to contact the undersigned at 603-2604 3333 in respect of any matters arising from or in connection with this report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer found at the preceding page, recipients of this report are advised that ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding company Alliance Investment Bank Berhad, their respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers, employees, agents and parties related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services for the subject companies. They may also have received compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services from the subject companies.
Singapore
Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) or DBSVS (Company Regn No. 198600294G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6327 2288 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
Thailand
This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd. Research reports distributed are only intended for institutional clients only and no other person may act upon it.
United Kingdom
This report is being distributed in the UK by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd, who is an authorised person in the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act and is regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Research distributed in the UK is intended only for institutional clients.
Dubai
This research report is being distributed in The Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”) by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) rd having its office at PO Box 506538, 3 Floor, Building 3, East Wing, Gate Precinct, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. This research report is intended only for professional clients (as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be taken or distributed into the United States or to any U.S. person except in compliance with any applicable U.S. laws and regulations. It is being distributed in the United States by DBSVUSA, which accepts responsibility for its contents. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact DBSVUSA directly and not its affiliate.
United States
Other jurisdictions
In any other jurisdictions, except if otherwise restricted by laws or regulations, this report is intended only for qualified, professional, institutional or sophisticated investors as defined in the laws and regulations of such jurisdictions. DBS Bank Ltd. 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3 Singapore 018982 Tel. 65-6878 8888, Company Regn. No. 196800306E
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