Greenwich Consultants LLC: Chemical Company Update
11/5/2008
MINERAL TECH INC
Ticker: MTX
Current Stock Price: $56.78 GC - 12 Month Price Target: $40 Next Year - Sum of Parts - Price Target: $40 GC - 12 month - Target Price EV/EBITDA: 3.5 GC - 12 month - Target Price P/E Multiple: 12.8
Investment Rating:
Strong Sell/Short Short Ratio
% Δ to GC Price Target: -30% Dividend Yield: 0.5% Potential Total Return: -29%
MTX Specialty Chemicals Commodity Chemicals Ag. Chemicals
NA 2.0 5.5 3.3
Minerals Technologies (MTX) - A Play On Paper Companies: Timber!!! - Concensus Earnings Estimates Still Way Too High - Reiterate Strong SELL or Short!!! Action: We have a Strong Sell/Short rating on Minerals Technologies (MTX), as the stock currently trades at more than $57. Our price target of $40 is based on a 12 month PE/Multiple of 12.8X '09 EPS. We would cover a short position at $40. Conclusion: MTX’s 4Q08 EPS consensus estimate of $0.75 to still way too high and the 2009 consensus EPS estimate and stock price do not yet reflect the coming earnings weakness relative to consensus expectations. Details: Alert: Less than half an hour ago minutes ago, we spoke with the management of Minerals Technologies (MTX). Following a brief conversation with management and after quickly updating our earnings model, we immediately reduced our 4Q08 EPS estimate in Thomson/First Call to $0.55 & slashed our '09 EPS estimate to $3.10 Management during the 3Q08 earnings conf. call (on Oct. 24th) indicated that 3Q08 to 4Q08 earnings in its two divisions (“paper/plastic” fillers and “steel” refractories/equipment) could each decline by 30%/40%. Additionally, there will be a negative impact to earnings from foreign exchange. Part of today's discussion with management concerned why other analysts have not reduced 4Q08 EPS estimates to a level, which is reflective of the type of earnings declines that management previously indicated. The answer evidently is:
¿Quién sabe? ¿Who knows?
Earnings Outlook: For more details on our earnings projections, please see GC's earnings model, which is not included in this report but is attached to the email.
Fiscal Year Dec Curr. FY(E) Next FY(E) Curr. Qtr. EPS $ GC $3.50 $3.10 $0.54 EPS $ Consensus $3.71 $3.80 $0.75
Next Qtr. $0.45 $0.96
Risks to our investment rating, earnings estimates, and price target include: Paper company plant shutdowns, housing and auto weakness, lower steel prices Please see exhibit 1 in this report for details on our price targets. Please call us (732 842 0700) or email us (
[email protected]) for more details. Important disclosure information is contained on the last page of this report. Greenwich Consultants LLC (GC) is a consulting firm, which provides research services to subscribing institutional clients.
Source: Greenwich Consultants LLC
Mike Judd's Phone #: 732 842 0700, Email:
[email protected]
11/5/2008
Greenwich Consultants LLC - Chemical Company Coverage List Specialty Chemicals
Ticker
Commodity Chemicals
Ticker
3M COMPANY DU PONT E I DE NEM PRAXAIR INC AIR PRODUCTS CHEM HUNTSMAN CORPORATION ASHLAND INC (NEW) CHEMTURA CORP NALCO HOLDING CO. LUBRIZOL CP CABOT CP CYTEC IND INC F M C CP MINERAL TECH INC ROCKWOOD HLDGS INC HERCULES OM GROUP INC COMPASS MINERALS INT NEWMARKET CORP
MMM DD PX APD HUN ASH CEM NLC LZ CBT CYT FMC MTX ROC HPC OMG CMP NEU
DOW CHEMICAL P P G IND EASTMAN CHEM CO CELANESE CORPORATION NOVA CHEMICALS CORP WESTLAKE CHEMICAL CO OLIN CP GEORGIA GULF CP POLYONE CORP
DOW PPG EMN CE NCX WLK OLN GGC POL
Ag Chemicals MONSANTO COMPANY POTASH CP SASKATCHEW MOSAIC COMPANY (THE) AGRIUM INC. CF IND HLDGS INC TERRA INDS INC TERRA NITR CO COM UT Pacific Ethanol, Inc. AVENTINE RENEW ENRGY VERASUN
Ticker MON POT MOS AGU CF TRA TNH PEIX AVR VSE
Source: Greenwich Consultants LLC
Mike Judd's Phone #: 732 842 0700, Email:
[email protected]
11/5/2008
Greenwich Consultants LLC: Disclaimer GREENWICH CONSULTANTS LLC IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION: Greenwich Consultants is a consulting firm, not an investment bank or a broker/dealer. Consequently, research analyst compensation is completely independent of investment banking. Greenwich Consultants does not expect to receive, or intend to seek, compensation for investment banking services from the subject company within the next 3 months. Of the securities currently subject to research coverage by Greenwich Consultants: the percentage rated as a Buy is: 2% ; the percentage rated as a Hold/Neutral is: 25% ; and: the percentage rated as a Sell is: 73% In the previous 12 months, Greenwich Consultants has provided investment-banking services: to 0% of the companies we currently rate as Buy; to 0% of the companies we currently rate as Hold/Neutral; and, to 0% of the companies we currently rate as Sell. The information contained herein is based upon sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us and is not considered to be all-inclusive. It is not to be construed as an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to sell or buy the securities mentioned herein. Opinions expressed are our current opinions only and are subject to change without notice. Greenwich Consultants LLC is under no obligation to provide updates to the opinions or information provided herein. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Additional information is available upon request. GREENWICH CONSULTANTS LLC RATINGS KEY: Meaning of Ratings: A) Buy (1) means Reasonable out-performance relative to the market over 12-18 months. B) Hold/Neutral (2) means Market-type risk adjusted performance; potential source of funds. C) Sell (3) means Expected to under-perform the market. © Copyright 2002 by Greenwich Consultants
Source: Greenwich Consultants LLC
Mike Judd's Phone #: 732 842 0700, Email:
[email protected]
11/5/2008