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10/21/16, 11(37 PM
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Joe Douglas 12:39 PM Are coupons playing a role in anyone's allocations? Andy H. 12:40 PM Yes Joe Douglas 12:42 PM I could be completely wrong. Feels like it should push you toward hitting the best assets up to par value first, then working your way to the lesser guys? Thoughts? Like your Corey Seager is basically a $42 Corey Seager minus $6 @ahix24. TheRick 12:50 PM I dont pay attention to them.
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Created by Justin Vibber on Dec 8th, 2015. 6,486 all-time messages. PURPOSE
Can't we all just get along and have fun? Yes we can! TOPIC
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Justin Evans 1:10 PM I have not paid attention to coupons. I'm trying to hit the best assets.
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Jed 1:22 PM I have not paid attention either. I think normal strategy makes sense regardless.
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Corey Seager likely to take the cake as the most-arbed player in ottoneu. Could we query that somehow? Who attracted the most arb $$ across, say, all FGpts leagues? So far I have only allocated $3 to two players: Story and Altuve. Also, people have bumped Aroldis up to $29, which is hilarious. TheRick 2:10 PM I think a lot of ppl are messing around still. Trey ! 2:27 PM We’ll have a full report on which players attracted the most arb $ at the end; very tough to pull it right now Andy H. 2:59 PM To the extent that the coupon status will make a difference, if I think a team is currently in a better place relatively than an alternative team to hit that I think is weaker for next year, I will potentially add $1 to position the superior team accordingly. That's probably unlikely, but I'll consider. (edited) Essentially, it would be correcting a different allocating team ignoring a team's coupons. (edited)
Joe Douglas 4:54 PM I've allocated $3 to 6 players. I've only allocated to 1 player on each team. Trey ! 5:18 PM We can trade 5MiLB at any time, right? Joe Douglas 5:22 PM Yep https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rUf vkrFmdZVQOwHldKjzPQ0kbqoHqCsvSU74 BOk6dyg/edit#gid=0 That's the 5MiLB sheet https://ottoneu.slack.com/archives/brinksmanship649/s1476676800000000
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Joe Catanzariti 6:40 PM TBH I completely forgot about coupons. I'll definitely change my allocations now based on that. High coupon teams absolutely should be hit with $3 over a team with no coupons, IMO. Justin Vibber 6:40 PM I agree
gr in TheRick ni I dont have any coupons so that sounds good. n Joe Catanzariti g: Or teams with $3 in coupons.
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Joe Douglas 6:41 PM We already have the max allocated to us... so nothing to change 7:16 PM
9:17 PM
Here's a question to ponder some... Is there a BENEFIT to finishing with $12 in coupons over $9 if the extra $3 adds $6 in additional targets on your back? Joe Douglas 10:04 PM Well it doesn't really add anything to us. We were likely at the max regardless. I think you always want the most you can have, if people hit you more because of it, oh well 1
Joe Douglas 10:35 PM Or rather, I'm not convinced that most coupons means you get the most arb. October 18th
Justin Evans 12:27 PM I think if you have the most coupons, but little surplus, it is less likely you get hit with $3 https://ottoneu.slack.com/archives/brinksmanship649/s1476676800000000
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from every team. Joe Douglas 12:35 PM Yeah, like coupons are a factor in who to hit, everything is... but I think surplus is higher on the totem pole to me. Joe Catanzariti 2:13 PM Why? Coupons ARE surplus. 1
Joe Catanzariti 2:25 PM If I assume Trevor story has a 2017 value of $21 and you own him for $6 that's $15 in surplus plus $12 in coupons. He has $27 in surplus. Andy H. 2:25 PM I could see someone who is just allocating to the best assets not considering teams' coupon allowance, but if you are prioritizing based on surplus, then you should absolutely be considering arb dollars. Justin Vibber 2:27 PM @joecatz Not really, Story's surplus is still capped at $15 since his salary can't be reduced from $6. You can't do anything about an owner applying their coupon, you can just apply your arb allocations as efficiently as possible to make their decisions more difficult If you want to use the amount of coupons in your decision making to hit an owner with $3 instead of $2, I think that's fine (like using owner quality, overall roster), but I only use those considerations as a tiebreaker Clint Mort 2:29 PM @joecatz: Stop giving Story love, he's blushing.
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Joe Catanzariti 2:30 PM e Perhaps aar better way to state this: a team has $45 in surplus t_ assets today, and $12 in
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coupons. You need to look at their overall surplus as $57 when applying. Justin Vibber 2:30 PM I agree @ahix24 . I'm an "asset-first" allocator, rather than "team-first", so I don't put too much weight on how many coupons an owner has. I just want to make sure I arb players that deserve arb as high as possible. @joecatz I think that's correct, but only if you are allocating from the team down and not from the player up. We're really only talking about two decision points either way, since you have to allocate $1 to every team, and max is $3. Joe Catanzariti 2:34 PM Right. I think it's worth noting though that if an owner had $12 in coupons they "max" at $21. You absolutely have to hit that team with $3. Same with the $9 teams. Andy H. 2:34 PM I don't think that's a hard and fast rule. But generally things should lean that way. If you have $12 in coupons and only $12 in surplus assets, I probably don't worry about using any more than the $1 minimum on you. 1
Justin Vibber 2:36 PM To me it depends on whether they have the assets and player surplus to justify a $3 allocation. This isn't Dynasty Dynamics where there is the threat of an owner having more coupons than arb allocations, there is no need to hit an owner for more arb than they should otherwise receive if they had no coupons, in my opinion. Andy H. 2:39 PM Like Justin said, I think in practice there are https://ottoneu.slack.com/archives/brinksmanship649/s1476676800000000
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few cases where it would make a difference in what I do. But if everyone was putting $2 on the twins, to the point that I thought that they were poised to be in a position superior to a team with less effective surplus (post-coupon), I'm making sure all $3 get put on the Dream. (edited)
Joe Douglas 2:45 PM Yeah, I think what @ahix24 and @eamuscatuli said is correct. If we have $20 in surplus, you don't hit us with $32 just because we have $12 extra. If that happens, the team in question just reduces the assets that are underpaid after arbitration, and let's the others go. So you still want to increase player salaries only to whatever limit you think they are worth. So in our case it's not a specific player that's the question, per say... You still don't want to increase prices to the "overpaid" range as it becomes the same thing as forcing a cut. So it the best assets, but make sure those assets are still at their keep line. Joe Catanzariti 2:57 PM Why? If you have a $5 player worth $30 ($25 surplus) and that player gets hit with the entire $33 he's now a $24 player. That's exactly how this is supposed to work. If you only get hit with $22 he's a $16 player if it all goes on him. Just an example. And fwiw this isnt me trying to get people to put their money on you guys, this is debating the merit of NOT placing the value on the coupon asset. Joe Douglas 3:00 PM Oh, no issue at all regarding using our team as https://ottoneu.slack.com/archives/brinksmanship649/s1476676800000000
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an example. I would use us as an example as we have the $12 in coupons. Here's why: In the specific example you give, where all $33 is put on on player, sure we would reduce his salary, but practically that isn't what happens. Practically more than 1 player is hit. So, for example. Let's say Cano is a $45 player (worth $40 - spit-balling) and you guys put $15 on him, then another $18 on everyone else (giving us $33). What happens is that we say, Cano is a cut... And we reduce everyone else (since there is $12 surplus on some combination of other players on our roster) then trade/cut cano - wasting the money y'all put on him. (edited) Andy H. 3:04 PM I singled out the Siamese. It was not race or any other sort of baiting. 1
Joe Douglas 3:05 PM So the example @joecatz is using works iff (if and only if) 1 player on our team is hit. Right now, if we thought Story wasn't worth $11 + $4, we just cut/trade him and reduce everyone else. But forcing someone to be a cut only hurts all of you since it would be wasted money. Andy H. 3:06 PM I'm glad I'm only allocating $1 a day, so I have plenty of time to consider this stuff. Joe Douglas 3:07 PM Basically you have to gaurentee the players you hit in excess of the one player you hammer totals $11 or less. So if we remove the $11, we have to use $1 on the guy who is a cut. Joe Catanzariti 3:09 PM https://ottoneu.slack.com/archives/brinksmanship649/s1476676800000000
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@ottoneutrades: I hate to say this but I think you just convinced me that all your ($12 and $9 teams) allocation needs to essentially hit one mega asset. If $30 hit Story and you brought him down to $24 and cut him I think that's still a win. Joe Douglas 3:10 PM That's fine. I'd be happy with that. Everyone else we one will be cheap. Justin Vibber 3:10 PM Why would they use coupons on him and then cut him? That's...silly Joe Catanzariti 3:11 PM Well if they only have the money put on one player they don't have a choice. Justin Vibber 3:11 PM I promise you I won't cut any players I use a coupon on
cr @joecatz True, but as Joe said, that isn't a y:
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practical result (only one player arbed)
Joe Douglas 3:12 PM Yeah, what I'm saying @eamuscatuli is the highly unprobable case where 1 player is hit in arbitration to where he becomes a cut, and the total allocated to other player is less than our coupons. Justin Vibber 3:13 PM Got it, yeah then you might as well apply the coupon and see if you can trade the player Joe Douglas 3:13 PM If every allocation on our team sums to $11 besides Story (example) we will use $1 coupon on him even if we don't plan to keep him. Yeah, we would trade him. cut means trade in this case. Joe Catanzariti 3:14 PM https://ottoneu.slack.com/archives/brinksmanship649/s1476676800000000
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But what's more realistic is that people are smart and put 18-20 on one asset and the rest on a couple others forcing you to make a decision. If you get $8 on a $6 story, it's an easy application and you have a prime asset. And I only use story as the example here because steamer 600 severely overvalues him. Joe Douglas 3:14 PM It doens't make a difference as the team being allocated to. But I already mentioned this in my Friday post in a round about way. This is why you hit the best assets. Justin Vibber 3:15 PM @joecatz The problem with doing that is pretty much every team has more than a couple decent surplus assets, so while you try to force an owner to waste coupons on a cut, you have still let that owner retain surplus elsewhere. That's not really any better than just allocating to the surplus. Joe Douglas 3:15 PM Bingo Joe Catanzariti 3:16 PM Which rounds right back to the reason why a team with $12 or $9 should be auto hits for $3 Joe Douglas 3:16 PM Not exactly. Putting all money on a guy an forcing a cut is like paying $33 to reduce $21 surplus whyy not keep the extra $12 and reduce surplus else where. You'd really have to believe 1 team was so far in the lead uf others for that ot be worthwhile (edited) Joe Catanzariti 3:17 PM https://ottoneu.slack.com/archives/brinksmanship649/s1476676800000000
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Either way You're ensuring they have the least amount of surplus as possible if there are multiple assets. Justin Vibber 3:18 PM If you want to hit a high coupon owner with $3, I think that's fine, but I would allocate in a way that spreads that arb across multiple assets Joe Douglas 3:19 PM Agreed. And If the league looks ot still be close, I would only hit players up to the price they are worth, not in excess. Since there will be multiple good teams to hit. In this case it doesn't matter. We have over $33 surplus. Justin Vibber 3:22 PM I have $200 in surplus according to the latest version of surplus calc I totally didn't make up (edited)
Joe Douglas 3:26 PM What!? You have an updated surplus calc and you're holding out on me! TheRick 3:29 PM If I have a $20 player worth $30 and he gets $15 in arb, I'm probably just going to cut him instead of using coupons on him. That would be a waste of coupon money. Jed 4:37 PM So were we the best fgpts league in the land this year? Did Justin run the final ranks yet? I feel like I would have seen that if so Clint Mort 4:44 PM I knew it! @joecatz loves Trevor Story almost as much as I do!!
h h h e e e ar ar ar t_ t_ t_
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Joe Douglas 5:11 PM
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That's why it takes @giambistache so long to make arb selections. He's trying to petition Niv to allow a $33 Story allocation. Clint Mort 5:19 PM I'd pay a million for him! Justin Vibber 5:44 PM @warhorse They are going up tomorrow, but yes finished #1
to We had eight teams over 17,800, and all 3rd p place hteams in FGPTS averaged 17,978 Joe at Catanzariti 6:25 PM : How much of that do you Attribute to 5milb
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and better owners vs. simple participation?
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Joe Catanzariti 6:27 PM 8 teams hit 1500 IP and another 2 hit 1450. By comparison, champs had just 2 teams hit 1500, three more over 1480, and 6 teams under 1400. Plus one that didn't hit 1300. Jed 6:50 PM Boom. That is awesome. Justin Vibber 7:20 PM It's really hard to say @joecatz , I think it's all a factor. High participation, good owners, additional incentives, and the fact that it was a first year league. Sort of a perfect storm to do well in the power ranking year one, so next year (and beyond) will be interesting. Trey ! 8:18 PM I missed this whole conversation today and am just catching up. But this is one of those "201" type conversations that I wish we could have on the community site because I get the sense more and more leagues are considering https://ottoneu.slack.com/archives/brinksmanship649/s1476829645000080
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Created by Justin Vibber on Dec 8th, 2015. 6,486 all-time messages. PURPOSE
Can't we all just get along and have fun? Yes we can! TOPIC
A surplus of gentlemen BROWSE BY DATE
# Pick a date ACTIONS
" Archive this private channel Delete messages...
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coupons and they'd benefit from this discussion. Anyone have a problem with me posting this there for reference? Jed 8:33 PM Nope Joe Catanzariti 9:06 PM Not at all. My issue with coupons has always been 1. What are the unintended consequences when you mess with inflation like this 2. Once people figure out the tricks to coupon allocation how does that affect the value of the coupons as a carrot. Joe Douglas 10:25 PM Well I don't really think this is a trick (edited) I mean - if y'all think it's best to hammer one of our players so that were forced to use an allocation dollars on what we may view as a cut, that's a net positive. Because it just means everyone else is cheap. October 19th
Joe Catanzariti 7:06 AM No, there's always a trick. And I think you're maybe misconstruing what I'm saying. The coupons had a real impact on participation. Top to bottom. But I don't think that had anything to do with the actual amounts. We had three divisions. There were five teams playing for the $12 coupon. I'm simply stating that I don't believe the $12 coupon might not have been a better reward than the $9 coupon All five of those teams had 1500 innings. That seems like it was a direct result of playing for the coupons and levels. https://ottoneu.slack.com/archives/brinksmanship649/s1476829645000080
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Joe Catanzariti 7:22 AM None of that changes the concept for me at least that the purpose of allocation is to reduce surplus, keep as much money on someone's roster, and create balance. My guess here is that our coupons are still higher than they should be. If 4th place got a $6 coupon, fifth $5, sixth $4, etc I don't think anyone would have played differently. Pinned
Justin Vibber 12:13 PM Our twelve teams were basically some of the best 1st,2nd,3rd, etc place teams across all of FGPTS: WAR Horse- 38th best 1st place team (out of 111 leagues) Plenipotentiary- 24th best 2nd place team Chin Musicians- 7th best 3rd place team Siamese Dream-11th best 4th place team 1
London Silly Nannies-5th best 5th place team Jokerit- 3rd best 6th place team High & Inside- 1st best 7th place team PTBNL- 1st best 8th place team If You d'Arnaud- 4th best 9th place team Sir Plus-None- 1st best 10th place team Brinksmanship Credit-6th best 11th place team Raleigh- 3rd best 12th place team Freaking awesome guys Trey ! 12:26 PM This is cool Owen Surett 12:33 PM
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Joe Douglas 12:42 PM I think next year we go for the record of number of teams over 18k. Andy H. 1:49 PM
cr ei o g Justin Vibber The c best htdamn 8th place team that ever was Andy H. o : Tell your kids. di This team will be totally level-headed the next time le they're playing in a big 8th place contest. Jed :Wow. Those stats are amazing. Seems like a
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Get your commemorative 2016 1st place 8th place gear in the team store now. 1:54 PM
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6:15 PM
great proxy for league strength and league health. You generally don't want to be in leagues where the first place team has a format leading point total. And those high ranks all the way through the standings are awesome. Like literally top to bottom high engagement level / skill level. And we probably finished first or second in gentlemanly banter as well. Another kpi. Joe Douglas 6:40 PM @ahix24 the only downside of the gators is that there isn't a better Gator emoji in your team name. Andy H. 7:40 PM There isn't even a gator emoji, technically. Joe Douglas 7:51 PM
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Not the same thing I guess. Jed 8:15 PM
dr a g Yesterday o Joe Catanzariti n_ That's fantastic. It's all about hitting innings. fa And I'm 100% convinced that that happened because ce of the carrots. I was playing for the first 5Milb and the next coupon level the :whole time,
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SABRmagician✨ ✨ 8:57 PM Isn't that a crocodile? 1
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Trey ! 8:19 AM The coupons are small enough in this league that the impact on inflation, etc. is going to be imperceptible I think the carrots are well designed here. We should sell this package to other leagues around Ottoneu Justin Vibber 8:25 AM Let's hope the system holds up long term, but so far so good. Obviously the owners make a big difference here, but there's great owners in 530 and other leagues too, I really think the incentives to fight for position for every team right to the bitter end is what will make this league great. Joe Catanzariti 8:50 AM Yeah I'm with Justin on the long term implications. This is a smart nought group that we should be able to make sure that if we missed, glossed over, or find we need to tweak, something in the set up, for the long https://ottoneu.slack.com/archives/brinksmanship649/s1476829645000080
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term benefit of the entire league, we should always be looking to do that. In 100 we're implementing a franchise tag program, as an example, in lieu of coupons, and it's going to be 100% based on hitting games played and IP levels, as opposed to simple standings and points. If this works, you'll probably see that league ranked top three at years end. Justin Vibber 8:50 AM 100 was 12th this year, by the way Joe Catanzariti 8:52 AM Right, so already a good league with quality owners, that should get better based on these guidelines. Two teams were south of 1400 IP there and still hit 17,800 points. That's because Griffey forever flirted with 20k points with a team that was a slow 5 year rebuild. The season was over in June there. What was really special about this league was that at no point until probably late August was this race less than 5-6 teams, and I finished in 10th and thought I had an outside shot through late July myself. Trey ! 9:55 AM I think the franchise tag idea is interesting and I haven't thought through it enough, but initial reaction is that the impact (protecting some players from arb) is basically the same as reducing that arb with coupons Justin Vibber 9:57 AM Yeah you're basically pre-selecting a coupon, but one with a variable amount TheRick 9:58 AM The bottom of the league would have been a lot tighter too, but serious injury issues and severe under achievement by high end players played a huge role.
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Justin Vibber 10:10 AM There's no stopping that of course, but the competitive nature of the league actually made it much more difficult than normal to find replacement level G and IP TheRick 11:22 AM Yeah Joe Catanzariti 12:06 PM @luckystrikes: @eamuscatuli it's actually not the same at all, in that: 1. The money that would have been allotted to the franchise player and couponed out is still in the pool. 2. The franchise player selected has to have been on your roster for the full season and must remain on your roster for the next season. So for example, the dream would not be able to protect Trevor story, since they traded for him, but could hold Machado at $44 Justin Vibber 12:07 PM I didn't realize that second rule, definitely makes things interesting. And you're right, the same amount of arb is hitting the pool, but I would imagine much of that arb is hitting bad assets if many are protected Jed 1:05 PM I was sadly too busy to be super involved in the league 100 discussions but I'm excited about where they landed. Feels unique but not gimmicky. Joe Catanzariti 1:41 PM The other part I forgot is rule 3 3. No player can be designated with a franchise tag in consecutive seasons. Justin Vibber 1:42 PM So it's like a mix of NFL Franchise tag and https://ottoneu.slack.com/archives/brinksmanship649/s1476829645000080
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MLB qualifying offer, I like it Do you have a full writeup on the system rules @joecatz ? Joe Catanzariti 1:44 PM https://ottoneu.slack.com/archives/50kotton eulgs100/p1475690713000023 https://files.slack.com/filespri/T038NMRAHF2KPV4C06/franchise_tags_clauses__league_100.pdf Joe Catanzariti 1:45 PM shared Miguel’s file
Franchise Tags Clauses League 100.pdf 80KB PDF
1
Joe Catanzariti 1:59 PM Yeah the concept is something I've been kicking around since the first coupon league. I love the carrot concept but hate what the coupons do to player values. It should be noted that roughly half of the teams in the league would not have qualified this season (myself included) but I think I probably would have worked harder to hit the GP and innings limits to keep my $60 trout at $62 Justin Vibber 2:00 PM What do you think the coupons do to player values that the franchise tags won't? Andy H. 2:05 PM What's the average coupon allowance per team here? At least the first few years, I'd think you could offset more than, say, $6 per team with the franchise tags.
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Justin Vibber 2:07 PM Average coupons here in Brinks are about $4.75 $6.33 if you count only the teams that actually get coupons TheRick 2:38 PM Would it make more sense if 2nd and 3rd place dont get coupons since they actually win money, and instead they go to 11th and 12th? Justin Vibber 2:40 PM It's definitely something we could discuss this offseason, for sure. I included coupons for 2nd and 3rd because I wanted to make sure the combined incentives were enough to keep a team in those positions from dropping to 3rd or 4th just to get more coupons TheRick 2:42 PM I'd rather win money than fake coupon money. Justin Vibber 2:42 PM As it is I think there's an argument to be made that $12 in coupons might be more valuable than $6 in coupons and winning your league fee back. @therick It depends on how much future real money that fake coupon money could win for you. TheRick 2:44 PM No guarantees you'll win future money. Too many things can happen. Justin Vibber 2:44 PM My point is just that reducing the coupon for 3rd below $6 makes that marginal coupon difference greater, and it's already at a point where I'm not 100% sure which set of incentives I prefer. I would probably prefer https://ottoneu.slack.com/archives/brinksmanship649/s1476829645000080
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3rd place, but it's not a slam dunk. TheRick 2:45 PM $50 for 3rd place means you're freerolling the next year so who cares. Justin Vibber 2:45 PM It wasn't easy designing everything so there was motivation to move up each rung of the ladder, but also encourage parity My point is- if $6 in coupons is the edge I need to finish 1st next year, that could potentially be a greater monetary benefit ($300 vs $100 or $50) than taking the money now. TheRick 2:48 PM Maybe, but its hard to win a normal league let alone this one. I think I just rather have $6 less fake dollars and $50 real dollars. It isn't that to find those $6 throughout the year. Personal preference I think. No one should really think they're have more than a 55% shot or so to even finish top 6. Justin Vibber 2:49 PM Right, it's definitely a personal preference, and it probably depends on how you feel your team is setup to compete going forward. Not sure I agree with that last part, in terms of that specific %, but I do agree that there should be more parity in this league than a typical league. At least I hope so. No offense @warhorse , but I hope we don't have a repeat winner for a while Joe Catanzariti 5:39 PM So @eamuscatuli here's one example: I own a $62 trout and a $29 kris Bryant. I can only tag one. By doing so, I assure that the arb that would have gone to me and split on both probably gets hit on the other one. But if I have $12 in coupons and they get split $6 and https://ottoneu.slack.com/archives/brinksmanship649/s1476829645000080
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$6 i keep both assets cheap. Also, those $12 in coupons that are removed from the salary pool get pushed onto other assets. What is it like $48 in coupons available? I forget the total amount but 16% of the money that should be going back on players isn't. Add the 5milb in and you have an issue in a few years. Plus the whole trade embargo pArt adds another wrinkle Joe Catanzariti 5:55 PM Also, I would increase the point thresholds in a league like this one, and I'm not a fan of more than 2 tags Jed 5:56 PM I am deeply offended but will accept a few coupons as compensation For pain and suffering Today
Trey ! 9:45 AM @joecatz Are you ok with me starting a discussion/posting something about your idea of "franchise players" on the community site? I see several leagues expressing interest in coupons this off season, but I think the franchise tag idea is interesting enough to compare with it. Joe Catanzariti 9:50 AM No problem. Joe Douglas 10:34 AM @giambistache @ahix24 why can't you guys be like everyone else and just put your arbitration dollars out there already
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I'm joking of course, but @giambistache when in you said you were west coaster who took k: his time, you weren't kidding
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10/21/16, 11(37 PM
Justin Vibber 10:38 AM @giambistache is slow Joe Douglas 10:38 AM He prefers methodical. Clint Mort 10:40 AM He is both slow and methodical.
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