Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
Core Political Data 10.25.2016
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
© 2016 Ipsos
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IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
Core Political Data These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for
date October 20 -October 24, 2016
For the survey, including
a sample of
1,777 Americans
773
650
212
Democrats Republicans Independents
ages 1,506
1,170
Registered voters
Likely voters
18+
were interviewed online
© 2016 Ipsos
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IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
Core Political Data The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points
2.7
4.0
4.4
7.7
2.9
3.3
for all adults
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Registered voters
Likely voters
For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
© 2016 Ipsos
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IPSOS POLL CONDUCTED FOR REUTERS
Core Political Data • The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by: – Gender
– Age – Education – Ethnicity • Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.
• All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. • Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. • Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. • To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit: http://polling.reuters.com/
© 2016 Ipsos
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ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Right Direction/Wrong Track Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
13%
21%
4% 8%
15%
13%
11%
Right Direction 38% Wrong Track
All Adults
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Don’t Know
66%
© 2016 Ipsos
47%
88%
77%
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ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Main Problem Facing America In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today? Total
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Economy generally Unemployment / lack of jobs War / foreign conflicts
20% 11% 4%
20% 11% 4%
23% 9% 3%
14% 12% 5%
Immigration
6%
4%
9%
5%
Terrorism / terrorist attacks Healthcare Energy issues Morality Education Crime Environment Don’t know Other
14% 10% 1% 8% 5% 6% 3% 3% 8%
13% 12% 1% 6% 7% 8% 5% 3% 7%
19% 8% 1% 12% 2% 5% 1% 0% 7%
12% 14% 1% 5% 7% 8% 3% 5% 9%
© 2016 Ipsos
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ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Main Problem Facing America Economy Generally 45%
Unemployment / jobs
40%
Healthcare Terrorism
35%
Immigration
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
2012
© 2016 Ipsos
2013
2014
2015
2016
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ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Barack Obama Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Lean towards approve Lean towards disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Not sure TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE
© 2016 Ipsos
Total
Democrat
Republican
Independent
27% 18% 3% 3% 12% 32% 5% 48% 47%
52% 27% 3% 2% 6% 7% 3% 82% 14%
5% 8% 1% 2% 17% 65% 2% 14% 84%
13% 20% 3% 5% 23% 32% 4% 36% 60%
8
0% JAN 1-7, 2012 JAN 22-28, 2012 FEB 12-18, 2012 MAR 4-MAR 10, 2012 MAR 25-31, 2012 APR 15-21, 2012 MAY 6-12, 2012 MAY 27-JUN 2, 2012 JUN 17-23, 2012 JUL 8-14, 2012 JUL 29-AUG 4, 2012 AUG 19-25, 2012 SEPT 10-15, 2012 SEPT 30-OCT 6, 2012 OCT 21-27, 2012 NOV 11-17, 2012 DEC 2-8, 2012 DEC 23-29, 2012 JAN 8-14, 2013 JAN 29-FEB 4, 2013 FEB 19-25, 2013 MAR 12-18, 2013 APR 2-8, 2013 APR 23-29, 2013 MAY 14-20, 2013 JUN 4-10, 2013 JUN 25-JUL 1, 2013 JUL 16-22, 2013 AUG 6-12, 2013 AUG 27-SEPT 2, 2013 SEPT 17-23, 2013 OCT 8-14, 2013 OCT 29-NOV 4, 2013 NOV 19-25, 2013 DEC 10-16, 2013 DECEMBER 31, 2013 JAN 15-21, 2014 FEB 5-11, 2014 FEB 26-MAR 4, 2014 MAR 19-25, 2014 APR 9-15, 2014 APR 30-MAY 6, 2014 MAY 21-27, 2014 JUN 11-17, 2014 JUL 2-8, 2014 JUL 23-29, 2014 AUG 13-19, 2014 SEPT 3-9, 2014 SEPT 24-30, 2014 OCT 15-21, 2014 NOV 5-11, 2014 NOV 26-DEC 1, 2014 DEC 17-23, 2014 JAN 8-14, 2015 JAN 29-FEB 4, 2015 FEB. 19-25, 2015 MARCH 12-18, 2015 APRIL 2-8, 2015 APRIL 23-29, 2015 MAY 21-27, 2015 JUN 11- JUN 17, 2015 JULY 1-JULY 7, 2015 JULY 22- JULY 28, 2015 AUG 12- AUG 18, 2015 SEPT 3-9, 2015 SEPT 24-30, 2015 OCTOBER 15-21, 2015 NOVEMBER 4-10, 2015 NOVEMBER 25-… DECEMBER 16-22, 2015 JAUNARY 6-12, 2016 JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY… FEBRUARY 20-24, 2016 MARCH 11-15, 2016 APRIL 2-APRIL 6, 2016 APRIL 22-26, 2016 MAY 13-17, 2016 JUNE 4-8, 2016 JUNE 25-29, 2016 JULY 16-20, 2016 AUG 6-AUG 10, 2016 AUGUST 25-29, 2016 SEPT 15-19, 2016 OCT 6- OCT 10, 2016
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Weekly Approval
70%
60%
50%
48%
40%
47%
30%
20%
Total Approve
Total Disapprove
10%
* Starting June 1st, 2016, this slide will reflect data from the same five-day field period as the rest of this report. Previously, this chart was based off of a seven-day roll-up.
© 2016 Ipsos
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LIKELY VOTERS / REGISTERED VOTERS
Trump / Clinton Head-to-Head If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=1,506 and likely voters, n=1,170)
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) Donald Trump (Republican) Other Wouldn’t Vote Don’t know / Refused
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) Donald Trump (Republican) Other Wouldn’t Vote Don’t know / Refused
© 2016 Ipsos
Likely Voters (LV)
Democrats (LV)
Republicans (LV)
Independents (LV)
43% 37% 10% 3% 7%
83% 7% 5% 2% 4%
6% 74% 10% 3% 6%
28% 25% 32% 5% 11%
Registered Voters (RV)
Democrats (RV)
Republicans (RV)
Independents (RV)
43% 34% 11% 3% 9%
80% 6% 6% 2% 6%
8% 74% 9% 4% 6%
25% 20% 33% 8% 14%
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LIKELY VOTERS / REGISTERED VOTERS
Four-Way Ballot Head-to-Head If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=1,506 and likely voters, n=1,170)
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) Donald Trump (Republican) Gary Johnson (Libertarian) Jill Stein (Green) Other Wouldn’t Vote Don’t know / Refused
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) Donald Trump (Republican) Gary Johnson (Libertarian) Jill Stein (Green) Other Wouldn’t Vote Don’t know / Refused © 2016 Ipsos
Likely Voters (LV)
Democrats (LV)
Republicans (LV)
Independents (LV)
42% 38% 7% 2% 4% 2% 4%
81% 7% 4% 2% 2% 1% 3%
7% 76% 7% 2% 4% 2% 3%
27% 28% 21% 6% 12% 4% 4%
Registered Voters (RV)
Democrats (RV)
Republicans (RV)
Independents (RV)
42% 34% 9% 3% 4% 2% 6%
78% 5% 7% 4% 2% 1% 3%
7% 74% 7% 2% 4% 2% 4%
22% 22% 22% 8% 11% 3% 11% 11
1/6/16 1/13/16 1/20/16 1/27/16 2/3/16 2/10/16 2/17/16 2/24/16 3/2/16 3/9/16 3/16/16 3/23/16 3/30/16 4/6/16 4/13/16 4/20/16 4/27/16 5/4/16 5/11/16 5/18/16 5/25/16 6/1/16 6/8/16 6/15/16 6/22/16 6/29/16 7/6/16 7/13/16 7/20/16 7/27/16 8/3/16 8/10/16 8/17/16 8/24/16 8/31/16 9/7/16 9/14/16 9/21/16 9/28/16 10/5/16 10/12/16 10/19/16 10/26/16
1/6/16 1/13/16 1/20/16 1/27/16 2/3/16 2/10/16 2/17/16 2/24/16 3/2/16 3/9/16 3/16/16 3/23/16 3/30/16 4/6/16 4/13/16 4/20/16 4/27/16 5/4/16 5/11/16 5/18/16 5/25/16 6/1/16 6/8/16 6/15/16 6/22/16 6/29/16 7/6/16 7/13/16 7/20/16 7/27/16 8/3/16 8/10/16 8/17/16 8/24/16 8/31/16 9/7/16 9/14/16 9/21/16 9/28/16 10/5/16 10/12/16 10/19/16 10/26/16
REGISTERED VOTERS
General Election Candidate Favorability
Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards these public figures?
(Data Collected in 2016)
70%
DONALD TRUMP
60%
50%
61% Unfavorable
40%
39% Favorable
30%
70%
HILLARY CLINTON
60%
50%
40%
53% Unfavorable 47% Favorable
30%
© 2016 Ipsos
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LIKELY VOTERS / REGISTERED VOTERS
Congressional Head-to-Head In 2016, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate for U.S. Congress in your district where you live? (Asked of registered voters, n=1,506 and likely voters, n=1,170)
44% 39%
Democrats (LV) 87% 4%
Republicans (LV) 9% 81%
Independents (LV) 17% 35%
4%
3%
1%
18%
3% 10%
2% 4%
1% 8%
2% 27%
Registered Voters (RV) 45% 37%
Democrats (RV) 88% 4%
Republicans (RV) 8% 80%
Independents (RV) 18% 31%
4%
3%
2%
16%
3% 11%
2% 4%
2% 8%
8% 27%
Likely Voters (LV)
Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Candidate from Another Party Will not/do not plan to vote Don’t know / Refused
Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Candidate from Another Party Will not/do not plan to vote Don’t know / Refused © 2016 Ipsos
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ALL ADULT AMERICANS
Political Identity Strong Democrat
15%
Moderate Democrat
19%
Lean Democrat Lean Republican
9% 7%
Moderate Republican
17%
Strong Republican
11%
Independent None of these
12% 7%
DK 3%
Party ID Party ID w/ Lean
Democrat
34%
Republican
28%
Democrat
43%
Republican Independent None/DK
35% 12% 10%
All Adults: n= 1,777
© 2016 Ipsos
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APPENDIX
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ̅) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters. Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:
© 2016 Ipsos
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APPENDIX
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals FOR THIS POLL The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2 Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below:
Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes (sample sizes) below 100.
SAMPLE SIZE
CREDIBILITY INTERVALS
2,000 1,500 1,000 750 500 350 200 100
2.5 2.9 3.5 4.1 5.0 6.0 7.9 11.2
1 Bayesian 2 Kish,
Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.
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