Chronology of Jihadism in Western Europe Update 2008-2010 By PETTER NESSER Researcher, FFI’s Terrorism Research Group Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt (FFI), Norwegian Defence Research Establishment P O Box 25, N-2027 Kjeller, Norway Phone: +47 63 80 77 54 Fax: +47 63 80 77 15 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: www.ffi.no/TERRA

Introduction Due to many requests, the FFI Terrorism Research Group offers a preliminary update of the study “Chronology of Jihadism in Western Europe 1994-2007: Planned, Prepared, and Executed Terrorist Attacks,” which was published in Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 31, no. 10 (2008), pp 924-946. The author cautions that the list of events has not been subjected to careful assessments and categorization at this point, and must be considered tentative. Together, the original study and the update indicate the following pattern with regards to the total number of terrorist incidents per year. Activity was high in the mid-1990s due to attacks in France by the Algerian Armed Islamic Group (GIA). Activity increased after al-Qaida initiated its global war in 1998 and peaked during 2003-2004 in connection with the invasion of Iraq. After 2004, the activity remained at a lower but significant level, before intensifying somewhat this year (2010).

The decrease in activity in 2005 may probably be explained to a large degree by intensified counter-terrorism efforts by European security services against jihadist networks in central parts 1

of Europe in connection with the Madrid attacks and the London bombings. The continuing and possibly increasing levels have to do with many events and developments, but the author believes important factors to be: 1. Al-Qaida’s emphasis on Europe as enemy after European countries participated in the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. 2. Al-Qaida’s propaganda and threats in connection with publication of Mohammed cartoons by the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten and the drawings of Prophet Mohammed by the Swedish artist Lars Vilks, aimed at the recruiting European Muslims for attacks. 3. A tendency towards agreement among different jihadist tendencies about on the ideological justification and strategic utility of launching attacks in Europe. 4. A decentralization tendency implying the emergence of jihadist networks in Europe’s peripheries (such as Scandinavia). 5. The establishment of regional al-Qaida branches in Iraq, on the Arabian Peninsula and in North Africa, some of which control networks for logistical support, funding, recruitment and radicalization in Europe. 6. Alliances between al-Qaida and militant groups in Pakistan, the Caucasus and African countries controlling networks in Europe.

Incidents 2008-2010 2008 Category 3: In January 2008, Portuguese aviation authorities reportedly intercepted suspicious communications on a short-wave radio, which threatened terrorist attacks against targets in Paris, including the Eiffel Tower. In addition the press reported that French security had noticed an increase in so-called “chatter” about attacks against France on radical websites. Messages on the jihadist web forum al-Ikhlaas were specified, and French authorities said they were investigating an e-mail containing a threat against Paris’s mayor and tourist sites.1 Category 2: In January 2008, Spanish authorities arrested 12 Pakistanis and 2 Indians suspected of planning suicide bomb attacks against the transport system in Barcelona in connection with a visit to several European countries by Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf. Prosecutors believed attacks in Spain were to coincide with attacks in Germany, France, Portugal and the UK (all contributors to the ISAF in Afghanistan). Spanish police raided several sites and confiscated computers and bomb-making materials, in addition to ideological texts and propaganda. The Spanish Interior Minister said the arrestees comprised a group with a “significant level of organization which seems to have taken a step beyond ideological radicalization”.2 The terrorist suspects were believed to be under the influence of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, TTP), an alliance of Taliban and al-Qaida-linked Pakistani militants under the leadership of Baitullah Meshud. Alleged leaders of the cell were identified as Mahroof Ahmed Mirza and Mohammad Ayud Elahi Bibi.3 Category 2: In February 2008 Danish police and intelligence officers arrested several individuals from Muslim backgrounds suspected of planning to assassinate one of the cartoonists behind the “France investigating Terror Threats against Paris, including Eiffel Tower,” The Canadian Press 11 January 2008. 2 Fernando Reinares, “A Case Study of the January 2008 Suicide Bomb Plot in Barcelona,” CTC Sentinel 2, no. 1 (2009), URL: http://counter.cubicleninjas.com/publications/sentinel-articles/a-case-study-of-thejanuary-2008-suicide-bomb-plot-in-barcelona 3 Fernando Reinares, “A Case Study of the January 2008 Suicide Bomb Plot in Barcelona,” CTC Sentinel 2, no. 1 (2009), URL: http://counter.cubicleninjas.com/publications/sentinel-articles/a-case-study-of-thejanuary-2008-suicide-bomb-plot-in-barcelona 1

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Mohammed drawings that stirred up worldwide protests from mainstream Muslims and led to threats from militant Islamist groups (including al-Qaida). The head of the Danish police security service (PET) said the purpose of the arrests was to intercept concrete murder plans at an early stage. Reportedly, the group of suspects included both Danish nationals and foreigners.4 Category 2: In April 2008 UK police arrested the 19-year-old convert Andrew Ibrahim in Bristol. Raiding his apartment police confiscated homemade explosives (HTMD), and equipment for the manufacturing of detonators. The son of an English woman and an Egyptian Coptic Christian, Ibrahim was described as a shy boy with a strong interest in the alternative music scene. He used to dye his hair, had several piercings, and was known to pursue a drug habit. During 2005-2006, he converted to Islam and became a follower of the salafist tendency. The conversion coincided approximately with his parents’ divorce, after which he dropped out of school, lived for a while in a hostel for homeless people, and began to attend mosques.5 Category 2: In May 2008, the 22-year-old convert Nicky Reilly attempted to detonate three bombs in a restaurant in Exeter. Only one of the devices exploded while Reilly prepared the device in the restaurant’s toilet. Suffering from Asperger’s Syndrome and obsessive compulsive disorder, Reilly attempted to overdose at 16 after feeling rejected by his father. Reilly converted to Islam during 2002-2003 after he was dumped by his girlfriend and following another attempt to commit suicide. He befriended local Kurdish immigrants and learned the Kurdish language. A Kurdish woman he acquainted on the Internet, reportedly encouraged him to carry out the bombings. He was also influenced by Pakistani extremists and ideological material via the Internet.6 Category 3: In September (9/11) 2008 French police arrested five North Africans in Rennes, suspected of preparing a terrorist attack.7 Category 3: In December 2008, Italian police arrested two Moroccans believed to be conspiring to execute a mass casualty bomb attack on Milan Cathedral over Christmas. According to the Italian Interior Minister, the suspects were intercepted before they managed to get hold of explosives. The Moroccans, identified in the press as Rachid Ilhami (31) and Abdelkader Ghafir (43), were caught in Giussano, a city 25km away from Milan. Investigators also retrieved circumstantial evidence indicating that the radicals planned attacks on a supermarket and a police station. Ilhami had been living in Italy since he was ten. He is married and has two children. He worked as a blacksmith and was known to be a peace activist.8

2009 Category 2: In April 2009 UK authorities expressed concerns about a possible al-Qaida-style mass casualty terrorist attack planned for the Easter holidays. Gordon Brown was quoted describing the suspected plot as “very big”. Police arrested 12 suspects in a series of raids across Northern England. The Chief Constable of Greater Manchester police announced that 11 of those arrested were Pakistani nationals, and 10 of them were allegedly holding student visas. UK 4 “Tidslinje Muhammed-krisen” [Timeline: The Mohammed crisis] Berlingske Tidende (in Danish) 25 February 2008, URL: http://www.berlingske.dk/danmark/tidslinje-muhammed-krisen 5 “Teenager Facing Terrorism Charges,” BBC News 29 April 2008, URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7373929.stm 6 “Nail-Bomber Given Life Sentence,” BBC News 30 January 2009, URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7859887.stm 7 "France holds five terror suspects," BBC 11 September 2008, URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7611078.stm 8 Rotella and Maria De Cristofaro, "Italian investigators arrest 2 accused of leading terror cell," Los Angeles Times 3 December 2008, URL: http://articles.latimes.com/2008/dec/03/world/fg-terror3

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authorities believe the suspects had planned to mount suicide bomb attacks against soft targets including shopping centers, a train station and a nightclub in Manchester. It later became known that the plotters were linked to a cell based in Norway suspected of planning attacks against the Chinese Embassy in Oslo and/or Jyllands-Posten newspaper in Copenhagen, as well as the Afghan Najibullah Zazi who attempted to bomb the New York Subway in September 2009. 9 Category 2: In May 2009 Italian police arrested two Islamists believed to be plotting suicide operations in France and the UK, including Charles De Gaulle airport. The suspects were named in the press as Bassam Ayachi (62) and Raphael Gendron. The Syrian Ayachi had acted as imam at a radical mosque in Belgium, whereas Gendron was described as a computer expert. Both men had travelled between Europe, Afghanistan and Pakistan and they were linked to the female Internet jihadist Malika al-Aroud (widow of one of suicide bombers who killed Ahmad Shah Massoud on 9 September 2001). The terrorist suspects had reportedly also been involved in smuggling Syrians and Palestinians into Italy (presumably for terrorist purposes).10 Category 3: In June 2009 Italian authorities announced the disruption of a suspected terrorist cell inside Italian prisons believed to be planning attacks across Europe. While four members of the alleged cell were already incarcerated, a fifth suspect was detained in Sicily. The suspects were apparently linked to a previous plot to launch attacks against the subway system in Milan and the San Petronio Cathedral in Bologna during 2006. Police stated that the suspects were part of an international network spanning Algeria, Morocco, Syria and Europe involved in fundraising, recruitment for Iraq and Afghanistan, and terrorist plotting in Europe and abroad. The European branch of the network allegedly involved contacts in France, Spain and Denmark.11 Category 2: In October 2009 a Libyan attempted to break into the Santa Barbara military barracks in Milan and detonated a small explosives device at the entrance while guards tried to stop him. The attacker suffered serious fire wounds, and one guard had minor injuries. An Egyptian national was arrested on suspicion of helping the Libyan acquire materials and assemble a bomb. The Libyan has not been tied to well known jihadist groups.12 Category 2: In October 2009 US authorities arrested two men suspected of plotting terrorist attacks against the Danish Newspaper Jyllands-Posten. One of them, Tahawwur Hussain Rana (48) is of Pakistani origin and the other, David Coleman Headley (49) is an American citizen that has lived in Pakistan. The high age of the alleged militants sets them apart from other operatives involved in terrorist acts in Europe. Both men are graduates of a Pakistani military academy, and are believed to have maintained ties with and received instructions from a Pakistani militant known as Ilyas al-Kashmiri. Kashmiri allegedly heads the so-called 313 Battalion, a group apparently made up of jihadist fighters from multiple nationalities independent from, but linked to and cooperating with al-Qaida, the Taliban and Pakistani militants, including the Haqqani Network.13 Category 2: In December 2009 a Nigerian mechanical engineering student attempted to smuggle a home-made bomb onboard a U.S. flight from Amsterdam to Detroit. The student had studied 9 Fred Burton and Scott Stewart, "Disruption vs. Prosecution and the Manchester Plot," Stratfor Global Intelligence 22 April 2009 http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090422_disruption_vs_prosecution_and_manchester_plot 10 Bruce Crumley, "Europe Pieces Together Terrorism Puzzle," Time 12 May 2009 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1897602,00.html 11 http://islamineurope.blogspot.com/2009/06/italy-terror-cell-apprehended-planned.html 12 “EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report,” (2007 through 2009) (The Hague: Europol, 2010), p 20. URL: http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cmsUpload/TE-SAT%202010.pdf 13 See "Pak Army officer linked to Rana, Headley," The Times of India 20 November 2009, URL: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Pak-Army-officer-linked-to-RanaHeadley/articleshow/5249930.cms and Camille al-Tawil, “The Other Face of Al Qaeda,” (part 6) Al-Hayat (in Arabic) 25 September 2010

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in the UK, and is believed to have connected with jihadists on travels to Yemen. He told interrogators that he acted on orders and received support from al-Qaida’s Saudi branch, alQaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).14 Category 1: In January 2010 a Somali linked to the al-Qaida associated al-Shabaab movement armed with a knife and an axe broke into the home of one of the cartoonists behind the Mohammed caricatures, Kurt Westergaard, and threatened to kill him. The cartoonist was forced to enter his panic room, after which Danish police rendered the assassin harmless by shooting him in his knee and shoulder.15 Category 1: In July 2010 the Norwegian police security service (PST) arrested a 39-year-old Uighur and a 31-year-old Uzbek suspected of having ties to al-Qaida Central and planning terrorist attacks in Norway or abroad. In a simultaneous operation the German BKA arrested a 37-year-old Norway-based Iraqi Kurd linked to the plotters while he was on vacation in Germany.16 The plotters had gathered a quantity of peroxide-based explosives, and appear to have been plotting attacks against either the Chinese Embassy in Oslo, or the Danish Newspaper Jyllands-Posten. It is alleged that the plotters had ties to al-Qaida’s former Chief of External Operations Saleh al-Somali and active terrorist networks in the UK and the US, most prominently the Afghan Najibullah Zazi, who attempted to bomb the New York subway on orders from al-Qaida during 2009.

2010 Category 1: In September 2010 a Chechen living in Belgium, Lors Doukaev (24), set off an explosive device inside a Copenhagen hotel injuring himself only. Police believed that he was preparing a letter bomb with the strength of a hand grenade to be sent to the Danish Newspaper Jyllands-Posten, which published the famous Mohammed caricatures in 2005. The Chechen had tickets for a bus en route to Belgium 2 hours after the explosion.17 Category 3: In September 2010 French authorities elevated the threat level to “red” after repeated threats against the Eiffel Tower and other locations in Paris. Because the increase in threats coincided with the kidnapping of French citizens by Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), there are speculations that the group is stepping up anti-French operations in North Africa and internationally.18 Category 2: In September 2010 the UK press reported that European security services had disrupted advanced (but not imminent) plans to launch terrorist attacks in Britain, France and Germany, by a Pakistan-based, al-Qaida and Taliban linked terrorist network. Allegedly, the plans involved paramilitary, Mumbai-style modus operandi. News commentators speculated that the discovery of the plot led directly to an increase in drone attacks in Pakistan aimed specifically at people involved in the plot.19 According to security officials, a “senior al-Qaida leader” going by “EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report,” (The Hague: Europol, 2010), URL: http://www.europol.europa.eu/publications/EU_Terrorism_Situation_and_Trend_Report_TESAT/TESAT2010.pdf 15 Marie Louise Sjølie, "The Danish cartoonist who survived an axe attack," Guardian 4 January 2010, URL: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/04/danish-cartoonist-axe-attack 16 Norway Cell http://www.ctc.usma.edu/sentinel/CTCSentinel-Vol3Iss8.pdf 17 “Danish police say bomber's target was newspaper,” Reuters 17 September 2010 http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68G2RM20100917 18 Matthew Campbell, "Paris on Alert After Bomb Threats Empty Eiffel Tower, Stations," Bloomberg 29 September 2010 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-29/paris-stays-on-red-alert-for-terrorism-asbomb-threats-empty-eiffel-tower.html 19 "Europe terror plot 'foiled'," Al-Jazeera 29 September 2010, URL: http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2010/09/201092923819317720.html , "Terror-Alarm in Deutschland!," Bild.De 29 September 2010, URL: http://www.bild.de/BILD/politik/2010/09/29/terroralarm-in-europa-geheimdienste-verhindern/al-qaida-anschlag.html , for a critical view on the case consult 14

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the name of Younis al-Mauretani was a central organizer of the plot. He was in contact with Hamburg-based jihadists who had been going to Pakistan for training. A member of the 11 September Hamburg cell who is still at large, Said Bahaji, reportedly also met with people involved in the plans.20 Category 2: In late October 2010 UK security discovered a bomb device made of 300 grams of the explosive pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) hidden inside printer cartridges on a cargo plane in Derby. The package was addressed to a Chicago synagogue and it is believed it was timed to go off mid-air over the eastern U.S. Intelligence services received a tip-off about the plan from sources in Saudi Arabia, and it is believed that Yemen-based Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) was behind the plot.21 An AQAP leader going by the name of Ibrahim alAsiri was referred to as a possible organizer. In the English-language al-Qaida magazine Inspire, AQAP claimed that the sending of cargo bombs marked a new strategy of low-cost attacks aimed to disrupt air-cargo systems, spread fear, and inflict economic losses on the U.S., by pressuring the enemy to spend on security.22 Category 3: In late October 2010, the Swedish Security Service (Säpo) arrested four suspects in relation to a reported bomb plot in Gothenburg, possibly directed in some way against the Danish Newspaper Jyllands-Posten. Säpo reported that they had been tipped off "by a credible source" about plans for a bomb attack in central Gothenburg, but security patrols there found nothing.23 Category 3: In November 2010 German authorities closed down the glass dome on the top of the Reichstag building in Berlin for tourists and other visitors because of terrorist threats. The move appeared to be linked to general threats against European countries, ties between Germanbased radicals and militants in Pakistan, and information that Germans attending training camps in Pakistan were about to return to Germany. German newspapers named Dawood Ibrahim, a weapons dealer believed to have been involved in the 2008 Mumbai attacks as a possible organizer. Der Spiegel also referred to FBI sources claiming that the terrorist plans might have been linked to a Shia Indian militant group with links to al-Qaida named “Sword” (saif). If this should be the case (however unlikely it may seem) it would be the first example of Sunni-Shia cooperation on terrorist plans against Europe.24 Category 2: In November 2010 Belgian authorities arrested 11 Islamists in Antwerp suspected of planning attacks against unspecified targets in Belgium. One security official told the press that the suspects had held general discussions about attacks against Jewish interests and NATO vehicles with associates in Germany and the Netherlands, but no targets or the time of an attack had been specified. Investigators looked into links between the suspects and a Belgian Islamist

Bruce Crumley, "Has the European Terrorism Threat Been Overhyped?," Time 30 September 2010, URL: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2022565,00.html 20 Nic Robertson and Paul, "Sources: Senior al Qaeda leader directed Europe plot," CNN 6 October 2010. http://articles.cnn.com/2010-10-06/world/europe.terror.conspiracy_1_tribal-areas-hamburg-groupsenior-al-qaeda-leader?_s=PM:WORLD 21 Jamie Doward et al,"Cargo bombs from Yemen open new front in al-Qaida terror war," Guardian 30 October 2010 URL http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/oct/30/cargo-bombs-al-quaida 21 Consult “Operation Hemorrhage,” Inspire, issue 3, 2 November 2010, accessed via URL: http://www.docstoc.com/docs/62930073/INSPIRE-3 22 Consult “Operation Hemorrhage,” Inspire, issue 3, 2 November 2010, accessed via URL: http://www.docstoc.com/docs/62930073/INSPIRE-3 23 "Police declare end to Gothenburg bomb threat," The Local (Sweden's news in English), URL: http://www.thelocal.se/29936/20101031/. 24 "Terroristen planen angeblich Anschlag auf Reichstag," Der Spiegel 20 November 2010, URL: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,730191,00.html

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organization named Sharia4Belgium, as well as the Ansar al-Mujahidin website. The investigations also involved arrests in Spain, Morocco and Saudi Arabia.25 Category 1: In December 2010 a suicide bomber blew himself up in central Stockholm, wounding two by passers. The suspect, a 28-year-old Iraqi had prepared a written martyrdom testament and one audio-recording sent to the news agency TT, in which stated “thanks to Lars Vilks and his paintings of Prophet Mohammed and your soldiers in Afghanistan and your silence before all of this, your children, daughters and brothers are going to die just like our brothers, sisters and children die”.26. The bomber carried some explosives on him, and had placed others in a car. The explosions occurred near a busy shopping street during Christmas preparations and were potentially very lethal. Fortunately the bombs seem to have gone off prematurely and several failed to explode, something that may have prevented mass casualty. The suspected terrorist immigrated to Sweden with his family when he was ten. He seems to have integrated well, participating in sports, making friends and coming across as a normal teenager. However, he has also been described as frustrated and as someone who is getting into trouble. The suspect did relatively well in school, and travelled to Luton, UK in 2001 attending higher studies at Bedfordshire University. Friends and acquaintances believe he became recruited and radicalized by militant Islamists in the UK.27 The suspect was married with children and in the recorded martyrdom message apologized to the family for deceiving them about travelling to the Middle East to earn money, explaining “I went there for jihad”.28 In the same message he also called upon other Holy Warriors in Sweden and Europe to join the struggle.

25 "Belgium terror probe nets 11 arrests," CNN 23 November 2010, URL: http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/11/23/belgium.terrorism/?hpt=T2 26 ”Hela hotet mot svenska folket,” Aftonbladet 13 December 2010, URL: http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/article8268322.ab 27 "Familiekillen blev misstänkt til terrorist," Aftonbladet 13 December 2010, URL: http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/article8269311.ab and John F. Burns and Ravi Somayia, "After Attack Hits Sweden, Focus Turns to Suspect," New York Times 12 December 2010, URL: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/13/world/europe/13sweden.html?pagewanted=2&src=me 28 ”Hela hotet mot svenska folket,” Aftonbladet 13 December 2010, URL: http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/article8268322.ab

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