MICHAEL R GUGGISBERG 8605 Palo Verde Rd, Irvine, CA 92617 | 480-824-8853 | [email protected]| MichaelGuggisberg.com SUMMARY I am an Econometrician who specializes in providing rigorous answers to real world economic questions. My goal is to design analyses for a fast-paced big data world where it is increasingly more difficult (and more important) to be able to extract meaningful inferences from an overwhelming amount of data. EDUCATION University of California, Irvine Ph.D. Economics Specialization: Econometrics Dissertation: “Essays in Econometrics” M.S. Statistics M.A. Economics Arizona State University B.S. Economics with honors, minor in Statistics Thesis: “Hospital Observational Project: Doctor/Nurse Communication”

2017

2015 2015

2012

FIELDS OF INTEREST Discrete Choice (expert), Quantile regression (expert), Bayesian methods (expert), Survival analysis, Missing Data, MCMC, Computational statistics, Topics in Econometric Theory PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES R (proficient), LaTeX (proficient), Mathematica, Matlab, Python (basic), C++ (basic) and STATA (basic) RELATED EXPERIENCE United States Marine Corps Reserve, Phoenix, AZ Senior Team Leader (Sergeant) 2006 – 2012 Prepared and developed over fifty Marines for two overseas operations, carried out mission critical tasks and assisted Marines with reintegration back into society. While stateside, maintained unit deployment readiness and developed three junior leaders for more senior positions. New Venture Group, Tempe, AZ Consultant 2011 – 2012 Met with a director of logistics at a hospital to identify scope of work and provide improvements for communication procedures between night shift nurses and physicians. Conducted interviews of hospital staff and provided summaries of each interview. Lead quantitative analysis from of an overnight observational study and provided summaries to better understand the problem. Helped combine all information to provide recommendations to improve communication procedures. Toys for Tots, Maricopa County, AZ Assistant Coordinator January 2010 – 2011 Took over position when the campaign was in a state of disarray. Created seven distinct departments and established cross-department operation and communication procedures. Assigned forty personnel to departments and managed day to day operations as well as coordinated with volunteer organizations.

MICHAEL R GUGGISBERG

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Acted as public representative and attended donation drives to provide a face to the organization and thank donors. At the end of the season a total of 103,000 underprivileged children received toys. RESEARCH “Posterior Consistency of Bayesian Multiple-Output Quantile Regression”, Job Market Paper, working paper I extend the multiple-output regression quantile approach from Hallin, Paindaveine and Šiman (2010) to the Bayesian framework. I prove the resulting posterior is consistent for the population quantile function. I apply the model to the Tennessee Project STAR experiment. I find smaller classrooms result in better performance on test scores for all quantile subpopulations. “Strategic Recusals at the United States Supreme Court”, working paper I develop a new structural model of United States Supreme Court recusals. Using this model, I provide evidence that Supreme Court Justices do not always recuse themselves when they should. I simulate the calibrated structural model to determine an estimate of an upper bound of the percentage of times a case has a justice with a conflict of interest but does not recuse. “On The Misspecified Conditional Logit and Huber-White Standard Errors”, Revise and Resubmit I show Huber-White (i.e. ‘Robust’) standard errors are, in general, not justified for discrete choice models. I provide necessary and sufficient conditions for when Huber-White standard errors are justified. A corollary is Huber-White standard errors are justified under the null hypothesis of a null coefficient. INVITED PRESENTATIONS University of California, Irvine, Institute of Mathematical Behavioral Sciences Seminar University of California, Irvine, Econometrics Seminar University of California, Irvine, Economics Poster Session

2016 2015 2014

AWARDS Economics Merit Fellowship Quarter Associate Dean’s Fellowship Merit Fellowship in Economics Navy and Marine Corps Medal of Achievement

Spring 2015 Spring 2013 2012 – 2017 2010

TEACHING EXPERIENCE University of California, Irvine Instructor Introductory Econometrics 2 (ECON 15B)

2015

Teaching Assistant 2012-2016 Graduate courses: Econometrics 1 (ECON 220A) Undergraduate courses: Introductory Statistics (SOC SCI 10A-B), Introductory Macroeconomics (ECON 20B), Intermediate Macroeconomics (ECON 100C), Managerial Economics (ECON 140), Applied Econometrics (ECON 122A-B), Econometrics (ECON 123CW), International Trade and Finance (ECON 161C) PROFESSIONAL AFFILIATIONS American Economics Association, American Law and Economics Association, American Statistical Association OTHER University of California, Irvine AGS Outdoors Club (Founder and President), Graduate Student Mentorship Program (Mentor to four students)