Thursday, February 09, 2012
Daily Trading Stance – Asia
Expanded commentary found at saxocapital.blogspot.com
FX Bias Support 2 Support 1 Last (0000GMT) EURUSD 0/+ 1.3185 1.3220 1.3250 EURJPY 0/+ 101.40 101.65 102.12 USDJPY 0 76.50 76.70 77.08 GBPUSD 0 1.5760 1.5800 1.5812 AUDUSD 0/+ 1.0730 1.0750 1.0785 AUDJPY 0/+ 82.60 82.85 83.10 USDCHF 0/0.9100 0.9115 0.9132 Bias Legend: 0 = Neutral, 0/- = Sell Rallies, 0/+ = Buy Dips, - = Sell at Market, + = Buy at Market
S&P500 NASDAQ Nikkei225 ASX200 STI HSI
Resist2 1.3310 102.55 77.50 1.5880 1.0845 83.90 0.9190
Resist1 34.02 1751 99.16
Resist2 34.49 1763 100.09
Closed +0.22% Closed +0.41% Opens 0.2% lower at 8,996. Suppt 8,949 Res 9,015 Currently down 0.3% at 4,275. Suppt 4,225 Res 4,315 Suppt 2,959 2,931 Res 3,026 Suppt 20,649 20,461 Res 21,023
Commodities Silver (XAGUSD) Gold (XAUUSD) Oil (CLH2)
Bias 0/+ 0/+ 0
Economic Data Releases CN UK US
Resist 1 1.3290 102.45 77.20 1.5850 1.0825 83.65 0.9165
CPI y/y (Jan) Industrial Production m/m (Dec) Initial Jobless Claims
Support2 33.14 1709 98.03
Support1 33.71 1724 98.09
Last 33.92 1732 98.92
(GMT)
Expectation
Prior
01:30 09:30 13:30
4.0% 0.2% 370k
4.1% -0.6% 367k
Comment
Theme Comment
EUR range-bound overnight as Greek talks ongoing Quick dip lower this morning on headline talks concluded but no deal but rebounded when disclosed only one issue remaining (pensions). Talks carry on, hoping to reach deal before EuroGroup meeting today China inflation data will be Asia’s focus with an eye on Greek headlines again
Daily Trading Stance CS1Y
USD Basis Swap is the Fed Funds vs. 3 month libor swap – an expression for money market tightness.
CS1Y is an indication of how many basis points cuts or hikes that are currently being price in.
CESI
110
3
60
Corporate Bond Spreads
2.5
10
2
-40
1.5
-90
1
-140
0.5
-190
0
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP
BAA-USG30YR Source: Bloomberg & SCM Research
Source: Bloomberg & SCM Research
CESI is an indication of how much better or worse data releases are out for USD, GBP, EUR and JPY.
Corp.bond spreads are risk indicators expressing how much you as investors want to be compensated for buying corporate bonds (BAA and AAA) instead of government bonds.
DOLLAR INDEX SPOT
China CPI YoY 7 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 4/09/2010
AAA-USG30YR
82 81 80 79 78 77 76 75 74 4/01/2011
Source: Bloomberg & SCM Research
4/05/2011
4/09/2011
4/01/2012
73 Oct/11
Nov/11
Nov/11
Source: Bloomberg & SCM Research
Dec/11
Dec/11
Jan/12
Jan/12
DXY Index measures the dollar’s relative performance against 6 major world currencies.
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Feb/12
Andrew Robinson +65 6303 7826
[email protected]
Important Disclosures As of 9 February 2012, the analyst/analysts who wrote this report hold the following shares in the securities recommended in this report: None. Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd does not have a proprietary position in the securities recommended in this report as at 9 February 2012.
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