Friday, November 16, 2012
Daily Trading Stance – Asia
Expanded commentary found at saxomarkets.blogspot.com
FX Bias Support 2 Support 1 Last (0000GMT) EURUSD 0/+ 1.2745 1.2760 1.2780 EURJPY 0/+ 102.40 102.85 103.65 USDJPY 0/+ 80.60 80.75 81.10 GBPUSD 0 1.5800 1.5825 1.5862 AUDUSD 0 1.0290 1.0300 1.0335 AUDJPY 0 82.65 83.00 83.81 USDCHF 0/0.9385 0.9400 0.9425 Bias Legend: 0 = Neutral, 0/- = Sell Rallies, 0/+ = Buy Dips, - = Sell at Market, + = Buy at Market
S&P500 NASDAQ Nikkei225 ASX200 STI HSI
Resist2 1.2840 104.50 81.80 1.5930 1.0385 84.50 0.9465
Resist1 32.69 1733 85.83
Resist2 32.76 1739 86.83
Closed -0.16% Closed -0.35% Opens 0.8% higher at 8,902. Suppt 8,829 Res 8,924 9,032 Currently flat at 4,346. Suppt 4,336 4,316 Res 4,436 4,456 Last 2,945. Suppt 2,929 Res 2,978 2,998 Last 21,108. Suppt 21,051 20,767 Res 21,446 21,555
Commodities Silver (XAGUSD) Gold (XAUUSD) Oil (CLZ2)
Bias 0 0 0/+
Support2 32.40 1683 84.57
Economic Data Releases SI SI US
Resist 1 1.2810 104.10 81.50 1.5920 1.0360 84.15 0.9450
Final GDP q/q (Q3) Non-oil Domestic Exports y/y (Oct) Industrial Production (Oct)
Support1 32.53 1702 84.68
Last 32.60 1715 85.45
(GMT)
Expectation
Prior
00:30 00:30 13:30
-2.9% 3.1% 0.2%
-1.5% -3.4% 0.4%
Comment
Theme Comment
JPY again the bigger mover overnight with further weakness on expectation of more BOJ easing/JPY weakening measures US data remains weak with super-storm Sandy having an impact – jobless claims surge to 439k Singapore data the highlight for Asia – final Q3 GDP and Oct. exports
Daily Trading Stance USD BASIS SWAP FF vs. 3m LIBOR SW 60
CS1Y
20 10
50
0
40
-10
30 -20
20
-30
10 0 30/Mar
30/Jun
30/Sep
31/Dec
31/Mar
30/Jun
30/Sep
-40 Dec/11
Feb/12
Apr/12 FED
USD BASIS SWAP FFv3 3 MO
Source: Bloomberg & SCM Research
Jun/12
Aug/12
BOE
Oct/12 ECB
Source: Bloomberg & SCM Research
USD Basis Swap is the Fed Funds vs. 3 month libor swap – an expression for money market tightness.
CS1Y is an indication of how many basis points cuts or hikes that are currently being price in.
CESI
110
3
60
Corporate Bond Spreads
2.5
10
2
-40
1.5
-90
1
-140
0.5
-190
0
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP
BAA-USG30 YR
Source: Bloomberg & SCM Research
AAA-USG30YR
Source: Bloomberg & SCM Research
CESI is an indication of how much better or worse data releases are out for USD, GBP, EUR and JPY.
Corp.bond spreads are risk indicators expressing how much you as investors want to be compensated for buying corporate bonds (BAA and AAA) instead of government bonds.
Singapore Non Oil Domestic Exp
DOLLAR INDEX SPOT 84
40
83
30
82 20
81
10
80
0
79 78
-10 -20 12/06/2011
77 12/10/2011
Source: Bloomberg & SCM Research
12/02/2012
12/06/2012
12/10/2012
76 Jul/12
Aug/12
Aug/12
Source: Bloomberg & SCM Research
Sep/12
Sep/12
Oct/12
Oct/12
Nov/12
DXY Index measures the dollar’s relative performance against 6 major world currencies.
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Andrew Robinson +65 6303 7826
[email protected]
Important Disclosures As of 16 November 2012, the analyst/analysts who wrote this report hold the following shares in the securities recommended in this report: None. Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd does not have a proprietary position in the securities recommended in this report as at 16 November 2012.
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