Curriculum Vitae Dr. Sebastian Lerch Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies Schloss-Wolfsbrunnenweg 35 69118 Heidelberg
Tel.: Email: Website:
(+49) 6221-533252
[email protected] https://sites.google.com/site/ sebastianlerch
Education 5/2016
5/2013
12/2012
Dr. rer. nat. Mathematics (summa cum laude), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Dissertation: Probabilistic forecasting and comparative model assessment, with focus on extreme events Supervisors: Tilmann Gneiting, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir Staatsexamen Mathematics and Chemistry (with distinction, German State Exam, education degree with certification to teach at Gymnasium level), Heidelberg University Diplom Mathematics (with distinction), Heidelberg University Thesis: Verification of probabilistic forecasts for rare and extreme events Supervisors: Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Tilmann Gneiting
Employment 11/2017 – 1/2018 since 1/2016 2/2015 – 12/2015 1/2013 – 1/2015 7/2010 – 12/2012
parental leave Research Associate, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, delegated to Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies Research Assistant, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies Research Assistant, Heidelberg University Student Research Assistant, Heidelberg University
Research Interests Mathematical methods for forecast evaluation and probabilistic forecasting, statistical model development in meteorological and economic applications
Publications Working papers Jordan, A., Kr¨ uger, F., and Lerch, S. (2017). Evaluating probabilistic forecasts with the R package scoringRules. Preprint available at https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.04743. Arnault, J., Rummler, T., Baur, F., Lerch, S., Wagner, S., Fersch, B., Zhang, Z., Kerandi. N., Keil, C., and Kunstmann, H. (2017). Significance of the precipitation sensitivity to the uncertainty in the representation of terrestrial water flows - A WRF-Hydro ensemble analysis for Central Europe. Preprint available upon request. Kr¨ uger, F., Lerch, S., Thorarinsdottir, T.L., and Gneiting, T. (2016). Probabilistic forecasting and comparative model assessment based on Markov chain Monte Carlo output. Preprint available at https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.06802
Refereed journal articles Baran, S. and Lerch, S. (2018). Combining predictive distributions for statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts. Accepted for publication, International Journal of Forecasting. Preprint available at https://arxiv.org/abs/1607.08096 Lerch, S., Thorarinsdottir, T.L., Ravazzolo, F., and Gneiting, T. (2017). Forecaster’s dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation. Statistical Science, 32, 106–127. Lerch, S. and Baran, S. (2017). Similarity-based semilocal estimation of post-processing models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, 66, 29–51. Baran, S. and Lerch, S. (2016). Mixture EMOS model for calibrating ensemble forecasts of wind speed. Environmetrics, 27, 116–130. Baran, S. and Lerch, S. (2015). Log-normal distribution based EMOS models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141, 2289–2299. Lerch, S. and Thorarinsdottir, T.L. (2013). Comparison of non-homogeneous regression models for probabilistic wind speed forecasting. Tellus A, 65, 21206.
Comments Gneiting, T. and Lerch, S. (2017). Comments on: ‘Random-projection ensemble classification’ by T.I. Cannings and R.J. Samworth. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 79, 1013.
Theses Lerch, S. (2016). Probabilistic forecasting and comparative model assessment, with focus on extreme events. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, available at https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000055628 Lerch, S. (2012). Verification of probabilistic forecasts for rare and extreme events. Diplom thesis, Heidelberg University.
Software Jordan, A., Kr¨ uger, F. and Lerch, S. (2016). R package scoringRules: Scoring rules for parametric and simulated distribution forecasts. Available at https://cran.r-project.org/package= scoringRules. Yuen, R.A., Baran, S., Fraley, C., Gneiting, T., Lerch, S., Scheuerer, M. and Thorarinsdottir, T.L. (2013). R package ensembleMOS: Ensemble Model Output Statistics (contributions as author since version 0.8, 2017). Available at https://cran.r-project.org/package=ensembleMOS.
Professional Activities Academic visitor at Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Debrecen, Hungary, September 2015 Norwegian Computing Center, Oslo, Norway, July – September 2014. Associate member of Research Training Group 1953 – “Statistical Modeling of Complex Systems and Processes” at the University of Mannheim and Heidelberg University, 2013–2016 Co-organizer of ScienceFore Summer School: The Science of Forecasting, Heidelberg, 2017 Symposium on Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts, Heidelberg, 2015 Workshop on Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts of Multivariate Quantities, Heidelberg, 2013
Session organization at conferences Discussion session on reproducible research, Conference on Predictability and Multi-Scale Prediction of High Impact Weather, Landshut, 2017 Reviewer for AGU Monographs, Annals of Applied Statistics, International Journal of Forecasting, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Tellus A, Weather and Forecasting
Invited Presentations 2018 2017
2016 2015
Institute of Telematics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe (Germany) Karlsruhe.ai Meetup TechTalk, Karlsruhe (Germany) University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erlangen (Germany), Deutsche Bundesbank Workshop on Forecasting, Frankfurt (Germany), poster International Workshop on Meteorology and Air Traffic Management, Sevilla (Spain) ACINN Graduate Seminar, University of Innsbruck (Austria) International Symposium of Forecasters, Santander (Spain) Applied Mathematics Seminar, University of Debrecen (Hungary) Statistics Seminar, University of Exeter, Exeter (UK) Research Seminar, UK Met Office, Exeter (UK)
Selected Conference and Workshop Presentations 2018 2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
German Probability and Statistics Days, Freiburg (Germany) Conference on Predictability and Multi-Scale Prediction of High Impact Weather, Landshut (Germany) Annual Conference of The International Environmetrics Society, Bergamo (Italy) International Verification Methods Workshop, Berlin (Germany) European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Wien (Austria) COSMO/CLM/ICON/ART - User Seminar 2017, Offenbach (Germany) VolkswagenStiftung Symposium Extremes 2016 – Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction of Extreme Events, Hannover (Germany) Workshop on Advances in Economic Forecasting, Heidelberg (Germany) European Central Bank Workshop on Forecasting Techniques, Frankfurt (Germany) European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Wien (Austria) German Probability and Statistics Days, Bochum (Germany) Workshop on Calibration and Verification of Ensemble Forecasts, Reading (UK) International Symposium of Forecasters, Riverside (US) Workshop on Elicitability, Propriety and Related Topics, Bern (Switzerland) European Geosciences Union General Assembly, Wien (Austria) Workshop on High Dimensional, High Frequency and Spatial Data, Karlsruhe (Germany) German Probability and Statistics Days, Ulm (Germany) Workshop on Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts of Multivariate Quantities, Heidelberg (Germany) European Conference on Applications of Meteorology, Reading (UK) VolkswagenStiftung International Symposium “Extreme Events: Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction”, Hannover (Germany)
Teaching Experience Courses 10/2017
10/2015 – 3/2016 10/2010 – 7/2012
Short courses on software for forecast evaluation, statistical postprocessing and tools for reproducible research, ScienceFore Summer School: The Science of Forecasting, Heidelberg (joint with Alexander Jordan and Fabian Kr¨ uger) Seminar: Statistical Forecasting, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (joint with Tilmann Gneiting) Tutorials for Mathematical Statistics and Mathematics for Scientists, Heidelberg University
Supervision of student theses Maximiliane Graeter, MSc thesis: Simulation study of dual ensemble copula coupling, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2016 (joint with Tilmann Gneiting)
Last updated: March 8, 2018
