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GHANA’S 2016 ELECTIONS: PROSPECTS FOR CREDIBILITY AND PEACEFULNESS Evidence from the 2nd CDD-Ghana pre-election survey | October 2016 |
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Context of the October 2016 survey
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Issues dominating the news headlines immediately before and during the survey • Flags/campaign posters/banners and other paraphernalia of the parties and candidates (dominated by the NDC and NPP) appeared on walls, trees and electric poles near roadsides throughout the nation. Large billboards canvassing support for the extension of President Mahama and ruling party’s mandate (under slogans such as “JDM TOASO” and “transforming lives) went up. • The major political parties (particularly the NPP and NDC) launched their respective campaigns and manifestoes, with considerable fanfare. The NDC’s manifesto titled “Changing Lives, Transforming Ghana” was launched at a mammoth rally in Sunyani on September 17; NPP’s manifesto, captioned “An Agenda For Jobs; Creating Opportunities & Prosperity For All”, was launched in Accra on October 9, 2016.
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Issues dominating the news headlines immediately before and during the survey • Flag bearers of most parties (and their respective running mates, in the case of the NDC and NPP) embarked on nationwide campaign tours. President Mahama’s campaign visits to the Western, Central, Greater Accra, and Volta regions featured ceremonies to commission newly completed public infrastructure or cutting the sword for the commencement of new projects and donation of cash and other gifts to traditional rulers and the electorate. The NPP’s Akufo Addo emphasized “restoring hope” and creating jobs in his campaign tours in the Western, Northern, Greater Accra, and Ashanti regions. • The Progressive People’s Party (PPP) and Convention People’s Party (CPP) presidential candidates also intensified their campaigns, under the slogans, “Apam Foforo” (new covenant) and “awake and vote for change” respectively. • President Mahama and Akufo Addo’s campaigns featured particularistic promises to the regions/districts/communities they visited (such as creation of additional administrative regions and districts) - reflecting blatant mobilization of ethnic and regional votes in the 2016 election campaign. Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Issues dominating the news headlines immediately before and during the survey • The inaugural flight of pilgrims from the newly renovated Tamale airport to this year’s Hajj took place in September. It was loudly touted as an example of the President and ruling Party’s special care for that religious community. • A number of traditional rulers openly and brazenly declared their support for either the presidential candidate of the NDC or NPP – a clear departure from the norm of traditional rulers’ “political neutrality” • A pro-NDC magazine, Africawatch, alleged that the NPP Presidential Candidate’s health was failing. • The EC’s announcement of 50K Cedis (about $13K) as filing fee for the 2016 presidential and parliamentary aspirants was greeted with loud criticisms, especially by the smaller opposition parties. The Progressive People’s Party initiated a court challenge against the EC’s decision. Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Issues dominating the news headlines immediately before and during the survey •
Seventeen presidential candidates filed their nomination with the EC by the close of the deadline given by the EC. The EC cleared only four of them, provoking vehement accusations of injustice, arbitrariness and unfairness by the candidates and supporters against the EC in general, and EC Chair in particular. Some of the disqualified candidates including, National Democratic Party leader and former first lady Konadu Agyeman Rawlings, PPP’s Dr. Kwesi Nduom, and Dr. Edward Mahama of the People’s National Convention (PNC) vowed to challenge their disqualification in the courts.
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The EC opened the window for voters to transfer their votes from the place of original registration to the place where they intend to vote on December 7. The process was accompanied by high levels of tension, physical intimidation as well as sporadic violence (typically involving NDC and NPP activists challenging or seeking to bloc vote transfer efforts of their rivals).
•
The EC announced cancellation of its proposals to do electronic transmission of results in the 2016 elections.
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Issues dominating the news headlines immediately before and during the survey • President Mahama controversially remitted the jail sentences the Supreme Court had imposed on the three panelists (‘Montie 3’) on a pro-NDC radio station, Montie FM (for criminal contempt) – ostensibly, in response to petitions and vociferous campaign by prominent government officials and party executives to apply the presidential pardon. • Hon John Oti Bless’s nomination for ministerial position by the president was widely criticized and his confirmation by Parliament delayed following the revelation that he was implicated in the slandering and threat to inflict physical harm on the Chief Justice and other perceived anti-NDC Supreme Court justices. • Civil society/election watchdog groups flagged abuse of incumbency by the President and ruling party as well as vote selling by the electorate. • The public release of findings of CDD-Ghana’s pre-election survey in August/September generated widespread public discussion and partisan arguments.
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Issues dominating the news headlines immediately before and during the survey • NPP activists, including some in leadership, continued to talk of undertaking their own policing of the ballot process on polling day. • The media reported numerous inter/intra party conflicts, confrontations, defacement of posters and billboards of rival parties and candidates: alleged roughing up of NPP “Loyal Ladies” by NDC youth in Suhum (Oct. 12); angry confrontations between NDC and NPP polling agents over vote transfers in Tamale reportedly provoking gunshots and suspension of the process (Oct. 6); inter-party clashes in Zabzugu-Tatale over the transfer of votes (Oct. 4); deployment of police reinforcement to Ajumako-Besease to quell clashes between NDC and NPP supporters, among others. • The Commission on Human Rights and Administrative Justice (CHRAJ) cleared President Mahama of the allegation of bribe taking (in the case of his receipt of a Ford Expedition vehicle from a Burkinabe contractor who was awarded several government construction contracts). CHRAJ also exonerated him of the allegation of conflict of interest, but said the action contravened the government’s own gift policy.
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Issues dominating the news headlines immediately before and during the survey • The Bank of Ghana came under sever public criticism for reportedly spending GHC 2M on gold watches to be given to selected senior employees as part of end of service benefits, which drew attention to corruption and self-service in Ghanaian public institutions, and among its officials. • The Mahama-NDC administration’s record of governance came under the spotlight of the election campaign following the release in early October of the 2016 Ibrahim Index of African Governance, citing Ghana as one of a dozen countries that experienced declines in governance over the past decade.
• Media reports of the Inspector General of Police, John Kudalor ordering personnel of the Motor Traffic and Transport Department (MTTD) to stop the practice of driver license and other motor-checks on the country’s roads was criticized as a pro-NDC election ploy (similar to the one issued by the police ahead of the 2012 elections).
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Issues at stake for the electorate in Ghana’s 2016 elections
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Policy priorities of electorates | July & October, 2016 Ghanaians consider unemployment as a key challenge that the 2016 election campaigns must address. •
Unemployment remains on top of the policy priority of Ghanaians: 27% cited it as first priority and, 16% as the second policy priority; education came third (12%).
•
Note that electricity, which was second on the list of priorities in the July survey dropped off the list in the October survey.
Policy priorities the electorate want the 2016 election campaign to address (%) | July & October, 2016
July, 2016
Unemployment Electricity Management of the economy Education Infrastructure / roads
October, 2016
Policy Priority 1
Policy Priority 2
Policy Priority 3
Policy Priority 1
Policy Priority 2
Policy Priority 3
25 15 11 ---
17 12 -10 --
9 10 -10 --
27 -12 11 --
16 --14 9
10 --12 9
Q29A. In your opinion, what are the most important problems facing this country that the forthcoming 2016 elections campaign should address? [Accept up to three answers] Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Factors voters say would influence their vote choices | July & October, 2016 •
On average, solid majorities of Ghanaians claim their vote choices in the 2016 polls would be influenced ‘a great deal’ or ‘somewhat’ by a variety of policy and campaign issues ranging from bad roads to national embarrassments such as the World Cup scandal, the Independence Day brochure, and the Ruby cocaine scandal.
Issues likely to influence electorates’ choices at 2016 election (%) | July & October, 2016 Bad roads Perceived government corruption Ability to get medical care Use of abusive language High prices of foodstuffs Arrogance/disrespectful posture of politicians Perceived ungodliness of candidate Perceived aggressiveness of political party Power outages Perceived abuse of incumbency National embarrassments
Jul., 2016 76 75 72 71 72 68 66 66 72 63 53
Oct., 2016 69 69 67 65 63 63 61 61 60 59 49
Change -7 -6 -5 -6 -9 -5 -5 -5 -12 -4 -4
Q30. Let’s talk about your vote in the 2016 elections. Please tell me whether as a voter, your choice of party and/or candidate will/will not be influenced by Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Opinions on the extent NDC and NPP campaigns are focused on issues citizens| October, 2016 • Nearly half of Ghanaians (47%) “strongly agree” or “agree” with the statement that the campaigns of the NDC and NPP have mainly focused on issues affecting citizens rather than personalities. • A sizeable minority (30%) disagree; 14% don’t know.
Q68. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: The 2016 election campaigns of the two main political parties have focused mainly on issues affecting citizens rather than personalities.
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Perceived preparedness of the electorate and institutions for the elections
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Trends: Awareness of the forthcoming national elections | July & October, 2016
Resounding majorities claim awareness and knowledge of the upcoming elections and what it takes to participate in them. • Specifically, most Ghanaians: o Claim awareness/knowledge of the location of polling stations where they will vote (97%) o Know they must present an official biometric voter ID card in order to vote (96%) o Know they would be voting for MPs and President during the elections (92%) o Correctly guessed that the elections would be held in December (80%) – a significant jump from 63% to 80% between the July and October surveys
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Trends: Awareness of the forthcoming national elections | July & October, 2016
Q10. As you may know Ghana will hold elections in 2016. I would like to ask you a few questions about these elections. (a) As far as you know, in which month will the election be held? (b) To your knowledge, will citizens be casting ballots for members of parliament as well as the president? (c) To your knowledge, will citizen have to show a biometric voter identification card in order to vote? (d) At this time, do you possess an official biometric voter identification card? (e) And do you know the location of the polling station where you are registered to vote?
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Registered to vote in the 2016 elections | July & October, 2016 A near absolute majority of Ghanaians report their preparedness to vote in the December 7 polls. •
Ninety-six percent of adult Ghanaians say they are registered to vote in the 2016 elections (which compares favorably with the July survey finding where 93% claimed to have done same).
Q35. As you know, Ghana will hold new national elections in 2016. Again, we find that some have not yet registered because they have not had the time, did not know where to register, or did not have the correct documents. By looking at public records kept by election officials, we can get an accurate report of how many people are actually registered. Of course, these public records do not say which party you support. Part of our study will involve checking these records against the survey reports. Which of the following statements best describes your current status ahead of the 2016 elections? Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Intending to vote in the 2016 elections | July & October, 2016 •
More than 8 in 10 adult Ghanaians (83%) declared an intention to vote in the 2016 elections (a 7 percentage point increase over the 76% recorded in the July survey)
Q36. How likely are you to vote in the 2016 elections? Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Citizen participation in the electoral process | July & October, 2016 A narrow majority of Ghanaians now report closely following the preparations and campaigns for the upcoming polls. •
A little over half of electorates (52%) report following the 2016 election preparations or campaigns ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ closely - a 5 percentage point increase over the 47% recorded in July survey.
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A sizeable minority (47%), has not been doing so.
Q11. How closely are you following the preparations or campaign for the 2016 election?
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Citizen participation in the electoral process | October, 2016 •
Only about a fifth of Ghanaians report attending campaign meetings or rallies of the two major parties: NPP (20%) and NDC (18%).
•
Attendance at meetings and rallies of minor political parities is even worse (under 4%).
Q34. Have you attended any party meetings or rallies during the campaign for the 2016 elections? If Yes, which parties organized these meetings or rallies?
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Citizen participation in the electoral process | October, 2016 • Only 7% of adult Ghanaians report helping to mobilize funds for a candidate or political party “once/twice,” “several times” or “often” during the past year. • Indeed, 7 in 10 (69%) says they “would never do this” while 21% say they “would if they had a chance”.
Q33. Here is a list of actions that people sometimes take as citizens. For each of these, please tell me whether you, personally, have done any of these things during the past year.
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Sources of information on the 2016 elections | October, 2016
• About half (49%) of the Ghanaian electorate claim to obtain most their information on the 2016 polls from private radio. Private TV (38%), government radio (37%), and government TV (32%) follow in that order.
• Sizable proportions of Ghanaians also get their news from ‘informal’ sources: friends/neighbors/co-workers (38%), family members (33%), political party officials (29%), religious leaders/gatherings (24%) and community meetings (22%). • The internet and social media are election news sources, respectively, for only 14% and 13% of the electorate; private newspapers for 12% and government newspapers for 11%.
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Sources of information on the 2016 elections | October, 2016
How much information on 2016 elections do citizens obtain from specific sources (%) | October, 2016 A lot of A little or no Don’t know information information
Private radio Private television Friends, neighbours or co-workers Govt. radio Family members Govt. television Political party officials Religious leaders or gatherings Community meetings The Internet Social media Chiefs or elders Private newspapers Govt. newspapers National Commission for Civic Education (NCCE)
49 38 38 37 33 32 29 24 22 14 13 13 12 11 10
Q27. How much information on the 2016 elections have you received from the following sources:
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47 54 60 57 66 60 68 73 73 68 69 83 72 72 76
4 7 2 6 1 7 3 3 4 18 17 3 16 16 13
Sources of information on the 2016 elections | October, 2016 Election-support CSOs are hardly a source of information on the upcoming elections for voters. •
Less than a tenth of the electorate cited CSOs as a source of “a lot of information” on the upcoming elections from.
•
The majority either received “little or no information” or “don’t know” whether they received such information from these groups.
How much information on 2016 elections do citizens obtain from specific sources (%) | October, 2016 A lot of A little or no information information
Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA) Ghana Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) Coalition of Domestic Election Observers (CODEO) Institute for Democratic Governance (IDEG) West Africa Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP) Civic Forum Initiative (CFI)
9 6 5 4 4 4
48 47 45 47 45 44
Don’t know
43 46 49 49 50 51
Q26. How much information have you received on the upcoming 2016 elections from the following Civil Society Organizations or election watchdog groups:
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Preparedness of institutions for 2016 elections | October, 2016
The Police, Armed Forces, and the Electoral Commission emerge as the top three institutions citizens perceive as most prepared for the 2016 elections. • Large majorities rate the Police (77%) the Armed Forces (76%) and the Electoral Commission (73%) as “somewhat” or “very well” prepared for the elections. • The EC’s preparedness rating increased by a significant 15 percentage points over the July figure of 58%.
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Preparedness of institutions for 2016 elections | October, 2016
Preparedness of state, non-state and quasi-state institutions for 2016 elections (%) | October, 2016 Very well or somewhat prepared
The Police The Armed Forces The Electoral Commission Independent Media Houses Government Media Houses The National Peace Council The Bureau of National Investigations The National Media Commission The National House of Chiefs The Inter-Party Advisory Committee District Security Committees (DISECs) The National/Regional/District election Taskforce The National Commission for Civic Education
77 76 73 63 61 54 52 51 49 47 44 43 42
Not at all or not very well Don’t know prepared
5 4 8 4 5 9 7 8 12 6 8 8 14
17 19 18 31 32 36 39 40 37 42 44 45 43
Q12. In your opinion, how well prepared are the following institutions for the 2016 elections? If you haven't heard enough about any of these institutions, please say "I don't know.
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Preparedness of non-state institutions for 2016 elections | October, 2016
Ghanaians are relatively less impressed by the preparedness of civil society organizations for the 2016 elections. • Only minorities (from 20% to 44%) perceive election-active CSOs in the 2016 election process as prepared. • In fact, majorities (from 50% to 73%) “don’t know” whether these institutions are prepared for the upcoming elections.
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Perceived preparedness of institutions for the 2016 elections | October, 2016
Preparedness of Election Watchdog Groups for the 2016 elections (%) | October, 2016 Very well or Not at all or somewhat not very well prepared prepared
The Christian Council The Federation of Muslim Councils Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA) Ghana Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana) Coalition of Domestic Election Observers (CODEO) Institute for Democratic Governance (IDEG) West Africa Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP) Civic Forum Initiative (CFI)
44 39 34 30 25 24 23 20
6 5 6 5 5 6 5 5
Don’t know
50 55 60 65 69 70 70 73
Q13. In your opinion, how well prepared are the following Civil Society Organizations or Election Watchdog Groups for the 2016 elections? If you haven't heard enough about any of these institutions, please say "I don't know."
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Opinions on the credibility of the processes and outcomes of the 2016 elections
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Popular opinions on the power of the ballot • Ghanaians believe that their vote matters. Seven in 10 (in July and October) believe citizens can use their power as voters to choose leaders who will improve their lives. Nonetheless, 22% remain skeptical (down by 5% since July).
Q9. Which of the following statements is closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2. Statement 1: No matter whom we vote for, things will not get any better in the future. Statement 2: We can use our power as voters to choose leaders who will help us improve our lives.
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Perceived prospects of free and fair 2016 elections | July & October, 2016 Ghanaians are hopeful about the prospect for free and fair 2016 elections. • A large majority of Ghanaians (83%) believe the December 2016 polls will be “completely free and fair” or “free and fair with minor problems”. (a 6 percentage point increase between July and October).
Q18. How free and fair do you expect the next elections of December 2016 to be? Will they be:
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Expected freeness and fairness of aspects of the 2016 election process | July & October, 2016 •
Very large majorities of Ghanaians (81% to 85%) expect key aspects of the electoral process (shown in the chart below) to be free and fair.
•
However, between 8% to 11% of Ghanaians are pessimistic
Q19. Let’s break down the various parts of the upcoming 2016 elections. How free and fair do you expect these elections to be in terms of: Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Perceived cleanness of voters’ register | October, 2016 More than half of Ghanaians believe the current voters’ register is in good shape for the 2016 elections. •
Almost 6 in every 10 Ghanaians (59%) rate the current voters’ list as “somewhat” or “very” clean.
•
However, about a quarter (23%) think otherwise.
Q17. Some people in Ghana question the validity of the voters' register. The Electoral Commission has undertaken series of activities to ensure that the electoral register is cleaned for the 2016 elections. In your opinion, would you say the current voters’ register for the 2016 elections is clean or not clean? Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Opinions on the importance of measures the EC must take to ensure the credibility of 2016 polls | October, 2016
A clear majority of Ghanaians support electronic and manual verification of voters in the 2016 elections. • Close to two-thirds of Ghanaians (64%) “agree” or “agree very strongly” with the statement that “Manual verification of voters who cannot be
verified electronically will ensure that eligible voters do not lose the right to vote.” • However, a little over a quarter (26%) support the counterstatement: “Application of both electronic and manual verification of
voters in the 2016 polls is a recipe for electoral malpractices and consequent violence.” • Less than a tenth say they neither agree with any of the two statements (4%) or don’t know (5%).
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Assessments of the quality of recent pre-election exercises by the EC | October, 2016 • Majorities give positive assessments of the following activities the EC undertook to improve the credibility of the voters roll for the 2016 elections (i.e. EC performed “very well” or “well”): o 69%: The conduct of open or continuous registration exercise o 69%: The exhibition of the voters roll at selected polling stations
o 65%: The conduct of the vote transfer exercise o 62%: The re-registration of NHIS registrants whose names were deleted from the voter’s roll
o 54%: The registration of eligible voters in the country’s prisons • Sizable minorities (between 19% and 34%), however, said they did not know whether the EC performed well or not in these activities.
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Assessments of the quality of recent EC pre-election exercises | October, 2016
• Majorities (6 in 10 or more) assessed the EC’s activities to improve the credibility of the voter register positively - as “quite” or “very” transparent. (Although sizable minorities (between 21% and 36%) say they do not know whether these processes were transparent or not.): o o o o
68%: The conduct of the open or continuous registration exercise 68%: The exhibition of the voters roll at selected polling stations 64%: The conduct of the vote transfer exercise 61%: The re-registration of NHIS registrants whose names were deleted from the voter’s roll o 53%: The registration of eligible voters in the country’s prisons • About two-thirds of Ghanaians (65%) “approve” or “approve strongly” the performance of the Chair of the Electoral Commission since her appointment into office. A little over a fifth (21%) holds the contrary view.
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Election 2016 integrity and peacefulness gaps
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Opinions on the likely integrity of the 2016 elections | October, 2016 • A small majority of Ghanaians (51%) are convinced that come December 2016 elections, political parties and/or candidates are “very likely” or “likely” to ignore electoral laws. • A significant minority (40%) disagrees.
Q25. Thinking about the upcoming 2016 elections in December, how likely do you think the following will occur: (a) Political parties and candidates ignore election laws?
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Opinions on the integrity of the 2016 elections | July & October, 2016
Ghanaians appear to put a premium on credible elections. • About 8 in 10 Ghanaians (78%) say they prefer to have completely free and fair elections even if their candidates fail to win. (This is similar to the July figure of 79%) • Only 15% (compared to 16% in July) would prefer their candidate to win even if the election were not free and fair.
Prefer my candidate wins even if election is not completely free and fair vs. Prefer completely free and fair election, even if my candidate loses (%) | July & October, 2016 July, 2016 October, 2016 Prefer an election that is completely free and fair even if my candidate does not win Prefer candidate wins, even if the election is not completely free and fair Agree With Neither Don’t know
79
78
16
15
4 1
5 2
Q21. Thinking about elections in Ghana, which of the following is closest to your own view. Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2.
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Opinions on the likely integrity and peacefulness of the 2016 election | July & October, 2016 •
A large minority (44%) believe it is “very” or “somewhat” likely that the wrong vote tally would be announced. Only half of Ghanaians (50%) trust that the correct ballot count would be announced.
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Nearly a third (31%) deem it likely that their votes would not be counted (although close to two-thirds (64%) do not share that fear).
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Although most Ghanaians (71%) believe it is ‘not at all’ or ‘not very’ likely for powerful people to know who they voted for in the 2016 elections, nearly a quarter (24%) think otherwise.
(These opinions remained stable between July and October) Likelihood of vote secrecy, fair vote count, correct vote tally announcement | July & October, 2016 July, 2016 Not at all Very or Don’t or not very somewhat know likely likely Even though there is supposed to be a secret ballot in this country, powerful people will find out how you voted. Even though you will cast a ballot, your vote will not actually be counted. Even after all ballots are counted an incorrect result will be announced
October, 2016 Not at all Very or Don’t or not very somewhat know likely likely
71
25
4
71
24
5
63
32
5
64
31
5
50
46
5
50
44
6
Q28. In your opinion, how likely will the following things happen in the 2016 elections? Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Opinions on the likely integrity and peacefulness of the 2016 election | July & October, 2016 •
About 1 in 3 adult Ghanaians (29%), believe people in their community will suffer “somewhat” or “a great deal” if they voted for the party of their choice in the upcoming elections.
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Sixty-one percent do not harbor such fears.
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(Note the fear of negative reprisals for voting one’s choice has increased by 5 percentage points between July and October)
Q62. To what extent do you think people in your area will suffer negative consequences if they vote for the party of their choice in this election? Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Opinions on the likely integrity of the 2016 elections | October, 2016 • Almost 7 in every 10 Ghanaians (69%) believe political parties and/or candidates are “very likely” or “likely” to engage in vote buying. (This has gone up by 9 percentage points since July) • Just a little over a fifth (23%) think otherwise.
25. Thinking about the upcoming 2016 elections in December, how likely do you think the following will occur: (b) Political parties and candidates buying votes? Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Incidence of vote-buying | July & October, 2016 Very few Ghanaians report personal experience with the offer of bribe for votes. •
Only 6% report that they have been offered money, food or gift by a party in exchange for votes in the 2016 campaign at least once or twice (16% in July).
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But 22% believe that someone in their neighborhood or village has been made a similar offer (a slight increase from 19% in July).
Q55. During the current campaign for the 2016 elections, how often has someone from a political party offered something, like money, food or a gift: (A) To other people in your neighbourhood or village in return for their votes? (B) To you in return for your vote? Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Types of inducement used in vote-buying | July & October, 2016 • Cash/money was topmost (41%) among the items politicians reportedly offered in exchange for votes (7 percentage points lower than the July figure of 48%) • Clothing (24%) was the second topmost item, dislodging food from the second position it occupied in the first survey in July at 16%.
Q55C. [If “once or twice,” “a few times” or “often”] What did they offer? (NOTE: Multiple response analysis based on percentage of responses received) Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
What constitutes vote-buying to the ordinary Ghanaian? | October, 2016 To many Ghanaians, an incumbent government handing out material things to citizens or undertaking and commissioning projects in haste in an election year is purely vote buying. •
A majority of Ghanaians (55% each) “strongly agree” or “agree” with the assertion that the incumbent government’s doling out of material things (e.g., fertilizers, sewing machines, gas stoves, and outboard motors) to citizens/ undertaking and commissioning projects in haste in an election year amount to vote buying.
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But about a third (32% each) disagree.
Q55. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Some Ghanaians perceive indirect vote-buying ahead of the 2016 polls| October, 2016 An appreciable number of Ghanaians claim they see ‘indirect’ vote-buying activities in their districts, constituencies or communities. •
An average of over a tenth of the electorate report seeing the following activities in their community in the past six months: o o o
•
Previously unmotorable roads being rehabilitated (19%); The tarring/asphalting of previously untarred roads (16%); and The commissioning of new school buildings (13%).
In addition, about 1 in 10 report seeing communities getting connected to the national electricity grid; and 6% report the commissioning of a new clinic or health post.
Citizens’ encounter with ‘indirect’ vote-buying activities of the incumbent government | October, 2016 Rehabilitation of previously unmotorable road to make it motorable in the last 6 months Tarring or asphalting of previously untarred roads in the last 6 months Commissioning of new school buildings in the last 6 months Connecting your community or nearby communities to the national electricity grid in the last 6 months Commissioning of new public clinic or health post in the last 6 months
Yes
No
19% 16% 13%
80% 82% 85%
9% 6%
89% 92%
Q55. Please tell me whether in the last 6 months you have seen any of the following in your community, district or constituency? Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Perceived intimidation, violence and abusive conduct in recent pre-election activities
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Incidence of intimidation and violence in the 2016 pre-election processes | October, 2016 • Significant minorities (listed below) report hearing of intimidation of citizens in the 2016 pre-election process; though a few (1% to 2% ) claim to have witnessed such incidents themselves.
o 23%: The vote transfer exercise o 22%: The re-registration of NHIS registrants o 22%: The limited voter registration exercise o 21%: The continuous voter registration exercise o 19%: The exhibition of the voters’ roll o 18%: A political party rally o 17%: A political party meeting
o 16%: Debates between candidates of political parties o 16%: A political party fundraising activity o 16%: A political party house to house to canvass for votes • A majority (ranging from 62% to 71%) neither heard, witnessed nor experienced such incident. Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Incidence of intimidation and violence in the 2016 pre-election processes| October, 2016 • Appreciable minorities (listed below) say they heard reports of violent incidents during some of the 2016 pre-election processes. o o o o o o o o o o
22%: The re-registration of NHIS registrants 22%: The limited voter registration exercise 22%: The vote transfer exercise 20%: The continuous voter registration exercise 20%: The exhibition of the voters’ roll 18%: A political party rally 17%: A political party meeting 15%: A political party fundraising activity 15%: A political party house to house to canvass for votes 15%: Debates between candidates of political parties
• Again, a majority (between 65% and 73%) say they neither heard, witnessed nor experienced any acts of violence. Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Incidence of abusive conduct by party candidates/party agents in the 2016 pre-election processes | October, 2016 • Close to 4 in 10 adult Ghanaians (39%) say they heard or witnessed political party candidates or agents making abusive/inflammatory statements or expressing hate in their speech during political discussions and election campaigns “once or twice,” “a few times” or “often” over the past six months. (A narrow majority of Ghanaians (55%) say they never heard or witnessed such abusive actions/utterances.) • At least, a third of those who reported hearing or witnessing abusive and slanderous utterances described them as: o o o o o o o
37%: Insulting and offensive 36%: Provocative/ inciting 30%: Promoting divisiveness among Ghanaians 30%: Peddling unsubstantiated allegations 29%: Endorsing electoral violence 29%: Stoking sectarian, ethnic division or tribalism 24%: Discriminatory and denigrating to female candidates
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Incidence of election related violent conflicts and vandalism involving party candidates/supporters in the 2016 pre-election processes |October 2016
• Majorities (an average of 75%) say they never heard, witnessed or directly experienced any acts of electoral violence or vandalism in their constituencies. • An average of 15% of adult Ghanaians report hearing about the following: o Mob violence by party supporters in their constituency
o Fistfights between supporters of rival political parties in their constituency o Destruction of campaign materials (posters, flyers, and flags) of a political party or candidate in their constituency; and o Destruction of public and private properties (such as offices or vehicles by) angry political party supporters in their constituency)
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Awareness of activities of private militia in the 2016 elections | October, 2016 • A significant minority of Ghanaians claim awareness of political partyaffiliated private militias. o o o o o
31%: Azorka Boys 27%: Bolga Bull Dogs 21%: Invincible Forces 18%: Bamba Boys 13%: Kandahar Boys
• Other groups identified include Aluta Boys, Nima Boys, Salifu Eleven, Zongo Caucus, Verandar Boys, Supreme, Mahama Boys, Delta Force, Badariba, Basuka Boys and Bindiriba. • Nearly 7 out of every 10 respondents (66%) who claimed awareness of these groups associated them with the NDC, while 18% linked them to the NPP. • Irrespective of the presumed party affiliation of these private militias, a clear majority of Ghanaians (63%) regard their operations and activities of these groups as a threat to democracy, and risk to the country. Note that 9 percent hold the opposite view. Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Prospects for election violence and peaceful resolution of election conflict
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Opinions on the likely integrity of the 2016 elections | October, 2016 • Majority of Ghanaians (54%) believe political parties and/or candidates are “very likely” or “likely” to use violence in the upcoming 2016 elections. • Nearly 4 in 10 Ghanaians (37%), however, do not the possibility.
Q25. Thinking about the upcoming 2016 elections in December, how likely do you think the following will occur: (c) Political parties and candidates using violence? Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Opinions on the integrity and peacefulness of the 2016 election | July & October, 2016 Commitment to peaceful elections appear to be stronger than free and fair elections. •
Nearly two-thirds of Ghanaians (62%) say they prefer an election to be entirely peaceful even if it is not completely free and fair (64% in July).
•
However, a little below a quarter (24%) would rather have an election that is completely free and fair even if it is not entirely peaceful.
Prefer completely free and fair elections, even if not entirely peaceful vs. Prefer an entirely peaceful election, even not completely free and fair. (%) | July & October, 2016
Prefer an election that is entirely peaceful, even if it is not completely free and fair Prefer an election that is completely free and fair, even if it is not entirely peaceful Agree With Neither Don’t know
July, 2016
October, 2016
64
62
24
24
11 1
12 1
Q24. Thinking about the upcoming elections in Ghana, which of the following is closest to your own view. Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2
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Opinions on the integrity and peacefulness of the 2016 election | July & October, 2016 Most Ghanaians want voters who feel aggrieved over the 2016 election results to seek redress through the courts. • •
•
Seven in 10 (72% in October vs. 75% in July) say citizens who think the 2016 election results do not reflect the will of the people should seek redress in the courts of law. A fifth (20%) disagree (19% in July disagree). Forty percent support peaceful demonstration; 53% are against it (vs. 46% in July). Indeed, a large majority of Ghanaians (89%) do not subscribe to the use of violent protests in resolving election disputes (90% in July).
Popular opinions on actions citizens should undertake if the 2016 election results do not honestly and accurately reflect the will of voters | July & October, 2016
Seek redress in court Engage in peaceful demonstration Take law into hands by engaging in violent protests
July, 2016 Yes No 75% 19% 48% 46% 5% 90%
October, 2016 Yes No 72% 20% 40% 53% 5% 89%
Q65. If the results of the 2016 election do not honestly and accurately reflect the will of the voters, what should the aggrieved people do? Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Popular acceptance of duly elected government’s legitimacy | July & October, 2016
• Almost 9 in 10 Ghanaians (82%) say it is important to obey a duly elected government even if you did not vote for it (a 6 percentage point drop in the July figure of 88%). • Fourteen percent say it is not necessary to obey the laws of a government you did not vote for (a 5 percentage point increase between July and October).
Q67. Statement 1: It is important to obey the government formed by any political party that wins the 2016 elections no matter who you voted for. Statement 2: It is not necessary to obey the laws of a government formed by a political party that you did not vote for in the 2016 elections. Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Popular rejection of violence as a political instrument | July & October, 2016 • An absolute majority of Ghanaians (8 in 10 in both July and October) say the use of violence is never justified in Ghanaian politics. • But over 1 in 10 (12% in both July and October) say violence is sometimes necessary if used to support a just cause.
Q58. Statement 1: The use of violence is never justified in Ghanaian politics today. Statement 2: In this country, it is sometimes necessary to use violence in support of a just cause.
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Likelihood of violence breaking out during and after the 2016 poll | July & October, 2016 Sizeable proportions of the electorate harbor apprehensions about the possible outbreak of violence before, during and after 2016 elections. •
Between a fifth to nearly a third of Ghanaians (i.e. 18% to 29%) see the likelihood of violence breaking out between or among some actors during and after the 2016 elections (No change from July findings).
Likelihood of violence before, during and after the 2016 polls (%) | July & October, 2016 July, 2016 October, 2016 Very or Very or Very or Very or somewhat somewhat somewhat somewhat unlikely likely unlikely likely
Between rival political party supporters before the election, that is during the election campaign Between rival political party supporters after the election, especially when results are announced Between rival political party supporters on the day of the election, that is when people line up to vote Between an opposition party and security forces Within a political party Between the incumbent party and security forces
63
29
62
29
62
30
62
29
64
28
63
28
66 68 70
24 23 19
68 71 71
22 20 18
Q60. Think of your electoral constituency, that is, the area where you and your neighbors cast ballots in elections. In your view, what is the risk of election-related violence? In other words, is violence likely or unlikely. Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Perceived likelihood of violent clashes after announcement of election results | by region | October, 2016 • People in Northern, Brong Ahafo, Upper West, Ashanti, and Eastern Regions are more likely than people in Western, Volta or Central Regions (by 15%) to perceive violent clashes after the announcement of the election results.
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Perceived neutrality of the Electoral Commission | July & October, 2016 •
Most Ghanaians (69%) (representing 6 percentage points increase from the July figure of 63%) “agree” or “strongly” agree with the statement that: “The EC performs its duties as a neutral body guided only by law.”
•
A little over a fifth (23%), however disagrees: they believe the EC takes decisions meant to favor particular people, parties, or interests (30% in July).
Q21. Statement 1: The Electoral Commission performs its duties as a neutral body guided only by law. vs. Statement 2: The Electoral Commission makes decisions that favour particular people, parties or interests Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Opinions on safeguarding the credibility and peacefulness of the 2016 polls
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Opinions on the importance of measures the EC must take to ensure the credibility of 2016 polls | October, 2016 •
The Majority of Ghanaians believe the pursuit of measures listed below are “very” or “somewhat” important for ensuring the 2016 elections are free and fair.
Popular opinions on the importance of the following measures for ensuring free and fair Election 2016 | October, 2016 Very or Not at all or somewhat not very important important
Ensuring there is no political violence Ensuring the police and army are neutral and impartial Quickly resolving any post-election disputes. Exhibition of voters’ roll for public inspection Releasing election results as soon as possible at the end of polls Transmission of results from polling stations to constituency collation centers Posting of copies of statement of results at polling stations immediately after counting and declaration at all polling stations Transmission of results from constituency collation centers to the Electoral Commission’s Head Office Giving each political party a copy of the voters’ roll Deleting names of NHIS card registrants from the voters’ roll
Don’t know
94 94 94 93 93
3 3 3 4 4
3 3 3 3 3
93
4
4
92
3
5
91
5
4
89 66
7 25
4 9
Q20. Please tell me how important you think each of the following measures will be in ensuring that 2016 elections will be free and fair. Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Popular demand for armed security presence at polling stations | July & October, 2016 A strong majority of the electorate say the presence of armed security personnel at polling stations on the election day would make them feel more secure. •
Eight in 10 Ghanaians believe the presence of armed security personnel at polling stations during the 2016 polls will make them feel “more secure” or “secure” (79% in July).
•
A little over a tenth (12%) think presence of security personnel at polling stations makes no difference.
Q63. Would the presence of armed security personnel (army or police) at polling stations make you feel more secure, make no difference, or make you feel less secure in this election? Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Popular opinions on safeguarding the integrity of the 2016 polls | July & October, 2016 A majority of Ghanaians are equally convinced that the presence of both international and domestic election observers will make the 2016 elections better. •
Six in every ten Ghanaians (61% each) believe the presence of international and domestic election observers during the elections will make things “much better” or “better”.
•
However, close to a quarter (23% and 24%) say their presence will not make any difference.
Q64. Would the presence of the following make things better or worse in this election? Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Popular acceptance of the authority of the police and the courts | October, 2016 Large majorities accept the authority of the key state institutions implicated in the election processes. They: •
Accept the EC as the sole agency to authoritatively declare the results of the December 7 elections: 94%
•
Reject the idea of a political arrogating to itself the authority to declare the results of the election
•
Accept the authority of the courts to make binding decisions: 88% (slightly down from 90% in July)
•
Accept the authority of the police to enforce the law: 85% (down from 89% in July).
But the Inspector General of Police’s threat to block the social media does not enjoy much popular support. •
A significant minority of Ghanaians (43% in October vs. 46% in July) disagree with the idea of the IGP/government shutting down social media platforms on election day; 36% agree (37% in July).
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Popular acceptance of the authority of the police and the courts | October, 2016
Popular acceptance of authority of state institutions | October, 2016 Strongly agree or agree 94% EC has authority to declare the winner of 2016 elections Courts have the right to make decisions that people always 88% must obey 85% The police always have the right to make people obey the law Govt. /IGP have the right to shut down social media platforms 36% on election day 14% A political party has the right to declare election results Q66. For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you disagree or agree?
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Strongly disagree or disagree 2% 5% 9% 43% 76%
Party footprints
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Feel close to a political party? | July & October, 2016
A majority of Ghanaians are affiliated with a political party. • About two-thirds (64%) say they “feel close” to a party (62% in July survey). • However, nearly a third (31%) don’t feel close to a party (32% in July survey).
Q40A. Do you feel close to any particular political party? In other words, is there a party that takes positions that you like? Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Voter preferences in Ghana: collective or individual? | July & October, 2016 • Exactly half of adult Ghanaians (50%) say their immediate family members vote for same party as they do (47% in July). • However, the majority (i.e. from 54% to 66%) say the vote preferences of their friends, co-workers, neighbours and people in their region are divided among different political parties (i.e. from 52% to 61% in July).
Voter preferences in Ghana: collective or individual? | July & October, 2016 October, 2016
July, 2016
Support divided Support divided Yes, support among different Yes, support among different same party parties or support same party parties or support other parties other parties
Members of your family Your friends Your neighbours Your co-workers People in this region of the country
50% 29% 19% 16% 10%
38% 54% 61% 60% 66%
Q46. Do you think that the following people vote like you, or do they vote for another party?
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47% 28% 20% 17% 12%
39% 52% 57% 55% 61%
Summary findings and conclusions
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Summary of findings | October, 2016
Reasons to be confident about the prospects for credible and peaceful 2016 polls: • The electorate seems generally well prepared; nearly all claim awareness of key aspects of the poll process and ballot casting requirements; claim to be registered and declare an intention to vote. • Many expect the elections to be free and fair as well as peaceful. • Confidence in the preparedness of key state bodies, notably the EC, to manage the election has increased. Perceived preparedness of the EC has improved and now ranks third only behind the Armed Forces and the police. • EC trust rating has also improved (it now ranks third and behind the army and the police).
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Summary of findings | October, 2016 But concerns about likelihood of vote manipulation persist:
and violence
• Majorities perceive party and candidate breach of election laws and regulations, vote-buying, and deployment of violence during elections. • Inadequate confidence in vote secrecy and the integrity of the vote counting process. • Considerable fear of the wrong vote tally being announced persists (44% in October versus 46% in July); and fear of negative reprisals for vote choice also persists (indeed risen by 5 percentage points since July). • Moreover, a significant minority express concerns about the breakout of pre, during and post-election violence between rival parties, within parties, and between party supporters and security agencies persist. • This seems to drive strong popular demand for armed security personnel as well as domestic and international election observer presence to ensure polling security and integrity persists.
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Summary of findings | October, 2016 • While levels of trust in public institutions have largely improved between July and October, they are still relatively low.
•
Close to 4 in 10 adult Ghanaians (39%) report hearing of/witnessing political party candidates or their agents making abusive/inflammatory statements or using hateful speech during political discussions and in the election campaign “once or twice,” “a few times” or “often” over the past six months.
•
Appreciable percentages of Ghanaians (24% to 37%) described some
inflammatory
speeches
they
heard
as
insulting
and
offensive;
unsubstantiated allegations against other candidates or political parties and/or discriminatory and demeaning to female candidates.
•
Between 15% to 23% also report hearing of incidents of intimidation or violence during some pre-election activities of the election management body or political parties.
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Summary of findings | October, 2016
•
Furthermore, over a tenth (13%) to close to a third (31%) of the electorate claim awareness of the existence of an armed militia/vigilante group or another that is affiliated with a political party and/or candidate.
•
Some attitudes indicate possibilities for condoning election rigging (15% of adult Ghanaians would prefer that their candidate emerges victorious in the 2016 elections, even if it is not free and fair) and/civil disobedience (20%) say they do not subscribe to the idea of the aggrieved over the election results seeking redress in the law courts.
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Conclusions | October, 2016
• Fortunately, there is a lot of trust in the state security actors (police and military) and there is widespread acceptance of the authority of state institutions. It is therefore crucial that their responses are measured and not overtly politicized --- because once violence breaks out, it can grow exponentially and may be difficult to contain. • Going forward, efforts should be taken to promote the transparent administration of the election, ensure widespread oversight of the vote count, and support the professionalism and impartiality of security actors.
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THE END
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Survey methodology
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Methodology • Nationally representative sample of adult citizens o All respondents are randomly selected.
o Sample is distributed across regions and urban-rural areas in proportion to their share in the national population. o Every adult citizen has an equal chance of being selected. • Face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice.
• Sample size of 2,680 yields a margin of error of ±2% at a 95% confidence level. • Fieldwork (or data collection) was took place from October 14 to 26, 2016. Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
Demographics of survey location and respondents
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Demographics | About survey location | October, 2016
Region Western Central Greater Accra Volta Eastern Ashanti Brong Ahafo Northern Upper East Upper West Geographical location and coverage Rural Urban Number of districts surveyed Number of towns/villages surveyed
Survey distribution 9.5% 8.7% 18.6% 8.6% 10.6% 19.5% 9.0% 8.9% 4.0% 2.6%
National distribution of adult population 9.5% 8.7% 18.6% 8.6% 10.6% 19.5% 9.0% 8.9% 4.0% 2.6%
46.0% 54.0%
46.0% 54.0% 163 291
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Demographics | About survey location | October, 2016
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Demographics | About survey respondents | October, 2016 Gender Male Female Age Youth (18-35 years) Young adults (36-50 years) Old adults (51-60 years) Elderly (61 years and above) Mean age Median age Modal age Lowest age Highest age Highest level of education Secondary (completed & partial) Primary (completed & partial) None or informal schooling Tertiary (post-sec/polytechnic/university) Bridging research and practice to promote good governance
50.0% 50.0% 52% 28% 10% 7% 37 years 35 years 28 years 18 years 88 years 46% 24% 17% 13%
Demographics | About survey respondents | October, 2016
Religion Christian religion Islamic religion Traditional religion None Main occupation Trader (retailer/shop owner, hawker & vendor) Agriculture (farming, fishing & forestry) Artisan, skilled manual worker, Supervisor/Foreman/Senior Manager Clerical/secretarial, mid and upper level professionals Unskilled manual worker Security services (police, army, private security) Never had a job, housewife, or student
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80% 16% 1% 3% 28% 24% 18% 8% 6% 1% 15%
