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HINDUSTAN TIMES, NEW D ELHI FRIDAY, MAY 11, 2018

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It’sadvantagefor India’s nuclear do-nothing policy bothcompanies New Delhi needs to revise its nuclear doctrine to keep every aspect of its strategy opaque

The Flipkart-Walmart deal will create jobs, infrastructure

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BHARAT KARNAD

nyone who needs more evidence that the huge interest in Indian e-commerce marketplaces is partly driven by the country’s laws that do not allow foreign direct investment in so-called multibrand retail need only look as far as the $16 billion

Flipkart-Walmart deal. The world’s largest retailer has bought 77% of

ourtake

India’s largest e-commerce marketplace because this is the only way it can tap the retail market in India – for now. The Indian market is worth $672 billion currently and set to cross the $1 trillion mark by 2020, according to industry lobby group Assocham. The deal is important for several reasons. It proves to venture capital investors that there’s money to be made in e-commerce in India, if only through smart exits. The bulk of the money involved, around $14 of the $16 billion, will go to existing investors with only about $2 billion coming into the company. It provides Walmart, which otherwise has a modest cash-and-carry or wholesale business in India, with a more robust presence in the retail market, allowing it to invest in such things as supply chain and logistics that could come in

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he Shakti series of underground tests 20 years ago were the last, stifled, hurrah of the Indian nuclear weapons programme. Stifled because the thermonuclear device tested on May 11, 1998 was a dud, and the last hurrah because the weapons unit at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay, thereafter, went into eclipse, its best and brightestabandoningit.Afterall,whatscientificandtechnologicalchallengeistherewhen there are no advanced fission, fusion and tailored-yieldarmamentstodesignanddevelop? Worse,officialIndianthinkingondeterrence iscontradictory.Miredinminimalism,ithas relied on threats of “massive retaliation”. Thismandatesresponding with alargenumber of nuclear bombs to dissuade Pakistan from nuclear “first use” and, therefore, an extensivenucleararmouryofourown.So,the nuclear deterrent cannot be “minimum”. The confused nuclear milieu has been obtained by the Indian government under three prime ministers — Atal Bihari Vajpayee,ManmohanSinghandNarendraModi. With the ‘notesting’ pre-condition of the 2008

nucleardealwiththeUnitedStatesinmind,it hasdecidedthat,thecountry’sstrategicarsenalisperfectlyadequatenowandinthefuture with just the 20 kiloton (KT) weapon/warhead, the only tested and proven weapon in the inventory. Also, under American pressure, the Indian government has put the brakesonthe12,000km-rangeintercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) project and the testing of the indigenous MIRV (multiple independently-targetable re-entry vehicles) technology to launch several warheads from a single missile that’s been available for the last 15 years. In this period, countries who prize their strategicsecurityacceleratedtheircapability build-up. North Korea shrugged off US pressure, answered American bullying with brinkmanship of its own,successfully tested a two-stage 250-350 KT hydrogen bomb, for good measure acquired the Hwasong ICBMs abletohitUScities,andsilencedUSPresident Donald Trump. Nearer home, Pakistan, aheadofIndiawith130nuclearweapons/warheadsandcounting,boastsofthemostrapidly growing nuclear arsenal. It has four 50MW weapon-grade plutonium (WgPu) producing reactors operating in Khushab. Meanwhile, India has yet to build the second 100MW DhruvaWgPureactorsanctionedinthemid1990s. North Korea and Pakistan are where they are courtesy the active “rogue nuclear triad” run by China which guarantees that Islamabad too will brandish thermonuclear weapons of Chinese provenance.

useful when (and if) it is allowed to enter the multi-brand retail business in India. It provides Flipkart, which needs money, with

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Indian prime ministers have not resumed, two things need to be done to configure and laboratory-testsophisticatedthermonuclear weapons designs. The laser inertial confinement fusion facility at the Centre for Advanced Technology, Indore, needs to be refurbishedonawar-footing,andadual-axis radiographichydrodynamictestfacilityconstructed. As regards the software of hard nuclear power, the nuclear doctrine has to be revised —somethingpromisedintheBJP’s2014electionmanifesto.Withoutmuchado,thenewlyfoundedDefencePlanningCommitteeshould rework the doctrine to stress flexible response,withambiguityenhancedbypublicisingthefactofdoctrinalrevisionandthejettisoning of the “no first use” principle, but nothingelse.Indiawillthusjointherestofthe nuclear weapons crowd in keeping every aspectofitsnuclearpolicy,doctrineandstrategy opaque. There are good reasons why, otherthaninIndia,there’snoenthusiasmfor nuclear “transparency”. Inkeeping,moreover,withthepassive-defensive mindset of the government and expresslytothrottleaggressionbyamilitarily superiorChina,technologicallysimple,easyto-produce, atomic demolition munitions havetobequicklydevelopedforplacementin theHimalayanpassesthattheChineseLiberationArmyislikelytouse,backedbyforwarddeployed canisterised Agni-5 missiles for launch on warning. The onus for India’s nuclear first use will thus rest entirely with China. Bharat Karnad, member of the nuclear doctrine­draft­ ing group in the First National Security Advisory Board, is the author of the forthcoming book Staggering Forward: Narendra Modi and India’s Global Ambition The views expressed are personal

A file photo of the Agni­V missile launched from Wheeler Island, Odisha REUTERS

Delhieschewsanythingsimilarlydisruptive (like nuclear missile-arming Vietnam) becauseourleadersaremoreintentonpolishingthecountry’sreputationasa“responsible power” andwinning plauditsfrom the USfor showing “restraint” than in advancing national interest. So, the country’s strategic options end up being hostage to the interests of foreign powers. India’s do-nothing policy haserodeditsrelativesecurity,anditsstature inAsiaandtheworldasastrategicallyautonomous and independent-minded country. India can recover its strategic policy freedombytakingseveralsteps.ItshouldfastforwardthesecondDhruvamilitaryreactorand ICBMdevelopment,andtest-firetheMIRV-ed Agni-5s. In lieu of nuclear testing, which

Can poll-bound India weather this storm?

DISAPPOINTINGSHOW

capital to fight Amazon, and prevents the company from worrying about working towards a public share sale. It will create jobs and help create much-needed supply chain and cold chain infrastructure.

High inflation, a depreciating rupee and a widening current account deficit are set to rock the economy

India is important to both Amazon and Walmart. Neither company has done well in China. They don’t want to miss the bus in India. Interestingly, both were in the race for Flipkart, although Walmart perhaps wanted the marketplace more than

RAJESH MAHAPATRA

Amazon (which, among other things, perhaps didn’t want to allow its largest rival in India to be owned by Walmart, a company no retailer, online or offline, can afford to take lightly). While the deal has attracted the attention of some conservative right-wing groups, regulators should see this as a mere

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change in ownership of a marketplace, which, according to current laws, can have 100% foreign investment. Flipkart, by most definitions, was already a foreign company; it just has a different

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owner now, the world’s biggest retailer.

Why the Supreme Court is angry with the ASI Theagency’srecordofupkeepofheritage structureshasbeenverypatchy

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Bollywood actor Sonam Kapoor and Delhi businessman Anand Ahuja tied the knot in a traditional Sikh wedding, Mumbai, May 9

The fashion diva sticks to an all too familiar style If anyone expected Sonam to subvert the traditional bride story, it’s time to confess our disappointment SHEFALEE VASUDEV

he Supreme Court on Wednesday pulled up the 157year-old Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) for failing to take proper steps to prevent the Taj Mahal from

turning green, which the organisation said in court was due to insects that breed in the stagnant water of the nearby Yamuna river. Displeased by the explanation, the SC made it clear that international experts, not the ASI, should be given the responsibility of protecting the world famous 17th-century monument. The court’s exasperation with the ASI, which is in charge of the monument, is understandable because none of the steps it tried to clean up the marble monument, which earlier was turning yellow, seems to be working. Last year, the government told the Rajya Sabha that a kind of mud therapy, involving the application of a paste of ‘multani mitti’, was being undertaken to preserve the colour of the monument. Archaeologists have long battled pollution to defend the building’s beauty. In 1996, the SC ordered closure/relocation of the foundries around Agra, and a nearby refinery was compelled to switch to natural gas. Yet these steps have not stopped the deterioration, thanks to challenges: air pollution and changes in climatic conditions. Despite these, which all monuments across the world face in varying degrees, the SC

PTI

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fyoumakeityourbusinesstobefetedfor what you wear, someone may make it theirbusinesstoseeyousolelyinthecontext of clothes. Culturally it may not be polite to rate a bride’s wedding finery. But some would agree that Bollywood actor Sonam Kapoor Ahuja, co-founder of the #EverydayPhenomenalweddinghashtag,the leadingladyofafewthousandphotos—which created an overwhelming shaadi meme on Instagram a few days ago — asked for it. GoingbyInstagramposts,Sonamchanged andchangedandchanged.Herclothes.From onemehndioutfittoanothermehndioutfit— an ivory lehnga choli by Abu Jani Sandeep Khosla to her Anand Karaj wedding ceremony ensemble. Then to a cake cutting ceremony outfit to a chevron patterned grey and whitelehngasetwithawhitegoldcapeensemble by Anamika Khanna for her reception to a chikankari kaftan for an after party. Her life, her money, her clothes, her wedding. Can’t we just stuff our opinions in our cupboards? Here’s why not. India’smost popularfashionista,the most frequent fashion magazine cover girl, a fashioninfluencerbyeverydefinition,whotraded heractingpotentialtoreignasthemistressof

Indian glamour, ended up giving scores of young girls a “wedding complex”. She succumbed hook, line, sinker to the traditional bridecouturethatinspiresasmuchasitworriesalargesectionofunmarriedgirls.Instead ofwritingherown story,a reasonableexpectation from the diva of fashion and thus of newness,shemade“gettingmarriedin12garments” a dreamy aspiration. Wedding couture drives and dominates Indianfashion.SoSonam’sshaadiis bigbusiness in the clothes story. But when it is beamed out in such profusion, it could throw spectators into an anxious, me-too vortex. Especially those who may not have as many clothes for their weddings and who worship Bollywood stars as role models. Itlandsathudonthesoftrumblesofmodernity that have begun to sneak up on the wedding industry: newer, simpler yet beautiful optionsinbridalcouture,privateritualsprotected from photo amplification, jewellery thatdoesn’tdominateabride’sfaceandbody. Ironically, despite the procession of lehngas, Sonam’s loveliest accessory was her radiant and joyous smile. She looked most attractive in images where she shares excited glances with Anand Ahuja, her groom. Our problem should not be that Sonam wore red or grey, or that she did not strut out inavantgardeJeanPaulGaultierlikeonared carpet. But if some of us expected her to subvert the traditional bride story to write and copyright a contemporary one, the time to confess our disappointment is now. Shefalee Vasudev is a fashion journalist The views expressed are personal

nited States President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal couldn’t have come at a worse time for India. The move reinstates US sanctions against the world’s fifth-largest oil and gas producer and will, in all likelihood, push up international crude prices. India, which imports almost 80% of its required oil, stands to lose on more than one count. Over the past year, domestic petrol and diesel prices have increased 14% and 20% respectively. For every barrel of crude bought on the international market in 2017-18, India has had to pay 19% more than the previous year. The spike in retail fuel prices, unsurprisingly, has caused widespread resentment among consumers who understandably want the government to reduce duties so that the scorching rise in costs can be cooled. There is already a full-blown blame game that has broken out between the Centre and the states, with each passing the buck on to the other in the hope that someone will blink first. Petrol and diesel remain outside the ambit of the goods and services tax (GST) and are taxed separately by the Centre and the states. For instance, out of every rupee a consumer in New Delhi spends on petrol today, 22% goes in taxes collected by the Centre while 27% goes in sales tax levied by the state. Another 9% is pocketed by dealers and oil marketing firms. Given that this is an election year, the Centre could have blinked first to temper oil prices. But that may not be of much help now. Any relief coming by way of duty cuts post Trump’s Iran decision will be more than offset by the rising cost of crude oil. According to the government-run Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), the cost of the Indian basket of

THERE IS ALREADY A FULL­ BLOWN BLAME GAME THAT HAS BROKEN OUT BETWEEN THE CENTRE AND THE STATES, WITH EACH PASSING THE BUCK ON TO THE OTHER IN THE HOPE THAT SOMEONE WILL BLINK FIRST

crude averaged $69.30 per barrel in April, or 23% more than the average for the last fiscal year ended in March. On Wednesday, Brent crude prices rose 2.5% in reaction to Trump’s announcement and touched a three-and-half-year high of $76.72. It is possible that the increase in crude prices could moderate as Europe, Iran’s biggest customer of crude, has so far not come on board with the US. Also, New Delhi may be able to persuade Washington to keep India’s concessional oil and gas imports from Iran out of the sanctions’ ambit. Iran currently accounts for almost 10% of India’s energy imports. Nonetheless, these possibilities will not help reverse the spike in India’s oil import bill. In the best of scenarios, it might not worsen. India’s crude purchases will still remain in an elevated band of $65-70 per barrel. A hike in oil prices had earlier dissuaded the Reserve Bank of India from softening lending rates to levels that could help accelerate growth in the economy. In the wake of Trump’s decision, it is likely that the central bank will turn more hawkish. RBI also has another challenge on hand, which is dealing with a rapidly strengthening US dollar. In just this past month, the rupee has depreciated 4%, thanks to subdued exports growth and a deceleration in the inflow of foreign capital. A recent report from global consulting firm AT Kearney noted that India had already skidded out of the top 10 destinations for foreign direct investment in 2018. All of these complicate the outlook for India’s current account deficit, which slipped to 1.8% of GDP — a level last experienced in 2013-14 when crude prices breached the $100-a-barrel mark. An April 20 report by the Kotak Economic Research had forecast that the deficit could widen to a “worrying” 2.4% of GDP this year, if crude prices average around $65 per barrel. Economists now fear that the average cost of crude for India this year may be closer to $70 per barrel and the current account deficit could touch an “alarming” 3% of GDP. The triple whammy of a higher inflation, a depreciating rupee and a widening current account deficit comes at a time when India’s economy was gaining steam. The negative impacts of demonetisation and GST were being overcome, demand for consumption and investment was turning around and sentiments were getting better. Suddenly, there is a storm building up. Can election-bound India weather it? n

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is not wrong in feeling upset about the ASI. A Comptroller and Auditor General’s report in 2013 had this to say about the ASI:

Preeti Mehrotra

“The World Heritage Sites did not receive appropriate care and protection. There were numerous cases of encroachment and unauthorised construction in and around these sites.” While it is easy to fault the ASI, a big part of the blame must go to the ministry of culture, which oversees it. Along with the ASI, it must also answer for failing in its duty to maintain the heritage sites better.

innervoice

WE SHOULD BRAVE THE STORMS AND GALES OF LIFE WITH A SMILE

Nowadays thunderstorms and dust storms have become a normal phenomenon, both literally and figuratively. Recently, a storm hit several parts of India and caused great damage, in addition to the death of more than 100 people. High-speed winds brought down power lines. By dawn things calmed down, and the sun rose rising with it hopes of a new day. I was waiting for my morning newspaper when I found a pair of gold earrings that I had lost a week back. I believe

the storm and rain the previous night have moved the mud away to show the earrings. The point is, the storm did bring hardship, but there was good news, hope and happiness on the other side. Life is also something like this: there are hard times, but if we weather that, it’s happiness that’s waiting for us on the other side. We should have the patience to brave through the tough times in life — and that too with a smile. Only then will there be happiness and a sense of content. One day when the trials of life seem to be

lost, when all hope is lost, life will throw new opportunities to you. In life too, new openings will come that were lost and hidden under the pebbles, waiting for a storm to blow over it and so that the real self may resurface. And to do so, forget about what is lost and live through the storms of life, brave them with a smile, and wait for the right moment! (Inner Voice comprises contributions from our readers The views expressed are personal) n

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