Two Decades of Household Income Trends in Chicago Community Areas By
James Lewis Rob Paral
Chicago Community Income Trends
Background The following report provides analysis and context for newly computed median incomes of Chicago’s 77 community areas, developed from new American Community Survey data covering the years 2010 through 2014.1 The Census Bureau’s American Community Survey provides the most up-to-date income data available for small local areas by combining the most recent Census survey data with similar data from the previous four years to create rolling average figures.
Citywide Trends New data on Chicago median incomes for the 2010-2014 period shows a small decline in real household income from $48,044 to $47,831 from the 2009-2013 5-year period. Chicago’s median household income is about 13% lower than it was fifteen years ago in 1999. Scanning the past 45 years, Chicago’s real median household income was in the upper $40,000s from 1969 through 1989 before rising to nearly $55,000 in the 1990s. Since then, median income has retreated to around $48,000 reported for the periods ending in 2012, 2013 and 2014. Median Household Income in Chicago 1969 1979 1989 1999 2008200920102012 2013 2014 $48,321 $46,559 $48,502 $54,899 $48,884 $48,044 $47,831 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; all dollar amounts adjusted for inflation to 2014 dollars.
Chicago’s Neighborhood Income Gaps Have Increased Over the last four decades, Chicago has experienced increasing economic distance between its poorest and most affluent neighborhoods. The largest amount of change occurred between 1969 and 1989, when the ratio of median incomes of the poorest 10% to the most affluent 10% nearly doubled, from 2.6 to 4.8. This was driven by the deepening poverty of many neighborhoods caused by industrial change, and the increasing concentration of poverty. Both local and national economic growth during the 1990s that lowered unemployment and grew jobs resulted in a narrowing of the ratio by the end of the 1990s to 3.5.
1
American Community Survey data is reported for census tracts. Jim Lewis aggregated tract-level data and calculated a median income amount for each of Chicago’s 77 community areas.
Rob Paral and Associates – page 1
Chicago Community Income Trends The broad decline in median incomes across Chicago neighborhoods during the 2000s reported here has resulted in a widening of the ratio, back to affluent neighborhoods having nearly 4 times the median income of the poorest ones. That step backwards was driven by the combination of higher-income neighborhoods recovering strongly from the Recession while, as noted above, so many of the lowest-income ones continued to decline. In real terms, the poorest 10 neighborhoods had 13% lower median income in 2014 than they had in 1999. In another sense, the gap is even wider. Insofar as the statistic “median” income is a measure of the center point of a neighborhood’s income distribution, it does not fully capture the value of the highest end of its highest income bracket. Thus in terms of total income, the gap would be far wider than the 3.9:1 ratio calculated here. Because extremely high-income households may not affect the median income of an area, places like Forest Glen have higher median income than Lincoln Park or Near North side, in spite of those latter neighborhoods housing the highest earners in Chicago. Neighborhoods with consistently high median incomes such as Forest Glen, Beverly, Mount Greenwood, North Center, and Edison Park house large numbers of uppermiddle class households that raise the median, but lack the million dollar incomes of the Loop, Near North and Lincoln Park.
Ratio of Income of Wealthiest to Poorest Communities in Chicago 1969 1979 1989 1999 2014 Average income of $73,804 $72,924 $78,556 $85,555 $84,158 wealthiest 10% of communities Average income of $28,497 $23,746 $16,428 $24,596 $21,635 poorest 10% of communities Ratio wealthiest to 2.6 3.1 4.8 3.5 3.9 poorest All dollar amounts adjusted for inflation to 2014 dollars.
Rob Paral and Associates – page 2
Chicago Community Income Trends
Three Patterns of Community Area Income Change Considering data over the past two decades, we can observe that Chicago communities fit into three broad categories: places that have experienced a continual slide in income, places that have had consistent gains, and places that gained during the 1990s, but then declined.
Rob Paral and Associates – page 3
Chicago Community Income Trends Areas with Steady Declines While not the very poorest neighborhoods in Chicago, twelve neighborhoods have declined steadily in median income over the past two decades. Most of these experienced modest real declines of around 6% during the 1990s, when most of the rest of Chicago was growing, and followed this with substantial declines of over 20% in the most recent decade, fuelled by the Recession. Many of these communities are areas where deindustrialization took place, or where manufacturing workers had lived, and/or are not on the path of upscale housing development that has buoyed other lower-income communities. 12 Community Areas with Steady Income DECLINES Over Two Decades Community Area
Median Household Income 1989
Median Household Income 1999
Median Household Income 20102014
% Change 1989 to 1999
% Change 1999 to 20102014 45. Avalon Park $63,847 $63,028 $44,574 -1.3% -29.3% 46. South Chicago $42,120 $40,194 $29,452 -4.6% -26.7% 48. Calumet Heights $70,513 $65,845 $52,393 -6.6% -20.4% 50. Pullman $46,864 $44,013 $38,175 -6.1% -13.3% 51. South Deering $52,618 $49,447 $33,496 -6.0% -32.3% 53. West Pullman $58,457 $57,533 $34,031 -1.6% -40.8% 57. Archer Heights $58,462 $56,045 $42,055 -4.1% -25.0% 63. Gage Park $54,899 $51,826 $37,773 -5.6% -27.1% 67. West Englewood $40,777 $37,940 $26,858 -7.0% -29.2% 71. Auburn Gresham $50,800 $48,664 $29,999 -4.2% -38.4% 73. Washington Heights $62,759 $61,403 $40,553 -2.2% -34.0% 76. O'Hare $65,647 $61,888 $43,259 -5.7% -30.1% Source: Rob Paral and Associates based on U.S. Census Bureau data; all dollar amounts adjusted for inflation to 2014 dollars.
Rob Paral and Associates – page 4
Chicago Community Income Trends Areas with Steady Gains Most of the neighborhoods that had consistent gains have been strongly affected by gentrification patterns where young professionals have moved into neighborhoods that had previously been immigrant or bedroom, Lincoln Square, Logan Square and North Center, or into the more affluent neighborhoods surrounding downtown, north, west and east which have been dominated by loft conversions and construction of new high rises for owner and renter. Owing to upscale conversion from industrial to residential use and pricing out of former low income residents, the Near West and Near South side communities show extraordinary increases in median income. The exceptions to this pattern are Oakland, Washington Park, Woodlawn, and Grand Boulevard, which started at very low levels and where significant loss of very low income people has coupled with some increases of more middle income persons to create net gains in median income.
12 Community Areas with Steady Income GAINS Over Two Decades Community Area
Median Household Income 1989
Median Household Income 1999
Median Household Income 20102014
% Change 1989 to 1999
% Change 1999 to 20102014
04. Lincoln Square $48,581 $58,130 $62,076 19.7% 6.8% 05. North Center $53,371 $73,565 $90,279 37.8% 22.7% 08. Near North Side $71,338 $82,169 $82,169 15.2% 0.0% 22. Logan Square $41,647 $51,516 $56,115 23.7% 8.9% 24. West Town $35,473 $55,311 $69,962 55.9% 26.5% 28. Near West Side $17,217 $42,054 $70,307 144.3% 67.2% 33. Near South Side $12,547 $48,793 $74,175 288.9% 52.0% 36. Oakland $9,346 $15,264 $24,815 63.3% 62.6% 38. Grand Boulevard $13,178 $20,152 $30,347 52.9% 50.6% 40. Washington Park $15,496 $21,547 $22,059 39.1% 2.4% 42. Woodlawn $25,227 $25,962 $26,452 2.9% 1.9% 74. Mount Greenwood $74,181 $81,717 $87,851 10.2% 7.5% Source: Rob Paral and Associates based on U.S. Census Bureau data; all dollar amounts adjusted for inflation to 2014 dollars.
Rob Paral and Associates – page 5
Chicago Community Income Trends Areas with Gains Followed by Declines But the pattern of Chicago economic change is dominated by the 53 neighborhoods whose median income rose during the 1990s and has declined since. These neighborhoods span much of the south and northwest portions of the city, showing recent income declines for a number of reasons. These include unemployment owing to industrial/occupation change exacerbated by the Recession and global economic change, lack of amenities or proximity to development valued by developers and the higher income residents who would move in, population transitions that have replaced higher earners with low income immigrants, and aging persons who remain in place, but whose income shifts from wages to social security and/or pensions. 53 Community Areas with GAIN THEN DECLINE Over Two Decades Community Area
01. 02. 03. 06. 07. 09. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. 29. 30. 31. 32.
Rogers Park West Ridge Uptown Lake View Lincoln Park Edison Park Norwood Park Jefferson Park Forest Glen North Park Albany Park Portage Park Irving Park Dunning Montclare Belmont Cragin Hermosa Avondale Humboldt Park Austin West Garfield Park East Garfield Park North Lawndale South Lawndale Lower West Side Loop
Median Household Income 1989
Median Household Income 1999
$44,078 $57,920 $36,349 $58,774 $75,638 $75,677 $72,409 $65,359 $94,465 $64,531 $50,317 $59,399 $53,140 $65,510 $61,099 $55,139 $49,304 $49,273 $36,952 $45,876 $27,850 $22,281 $23,181 $41,050 $37,935 $89,128
$44,917 $58,479 $45,949 $76,583 $97,522 $81,134 $75,902 $70,555 $97,033 $69,941 $57,864 $64,126 $59,749 $70,167 $66,285 $61,343 $54,237 $52,130 $40,832 $47,846 $32,863 $34,419 $26,070 $45,937 $39,460 $92,569
Median % % Household Change Change Income 2010- 1989 to 1999 to 2014 1999 20102014 $37,779 $47,941 $44,229 $75,730 $87,694 $79,342 $70,578 $62,021 $84,347 $52,283 $52,666 $54,773 $48,758 $60,945 $41,387 $43,103 $37,327 $44,388 $32,303 $31,289 $25,362 $22,103 $23,107 $31,229 $35,103 $88,756
1.9% 1.0% 26.4% 30.3% 28.9% 7.2% 4.8% 7.9% 2.7% 8.4% 15.0% 8.0% 12.4% 7.1% 8.5% 11.3% 10.0% 5.8% 10.5% 4.3% 18.0% 54.5% 12.5% 11.9% 4.0% 3.9%
-15.9% -18.0% -3.7% -1.1% -10.1% -2.2% -7.0% -12.1% -13.1% -25.2% -9.0% -14.6% -18.4% -13.1% -37.6% -29.7% -31.2% -14.9% -20.9% -34.6% -22.8% -35.8% -11.4% -32.0% -11.0% -4.1%
Rob Paral and Associates – page 6
Chicago Community Income Trends 34. Armour Square 35. Douglas 37. Fuller Park 39. Kenwood 41. Hyde Park 43. South Shore 44. Chatham 47. Burnside 49. Roseland 52. East Side 54. Riverdale 55. Hegewisch 56. Garfield Ridge 58. Brighton Park 59. McKinley Park 60. Bridgeport 61. New City 62. West Elsdon 64. Clearing 65. West Lawn 66. Chicago Lawn 68. Englewood 69. Greater Grand Crossing 70. Ashburn 72. Beverly 75. Morgan Park 77. Edgewater
$24,925 $23,961 $15,325 $42,061 $51,067 $37,056 $44,274 $47,847 $52,744 $50,916 $11,804 $57,726 $60,592 $47,573 $49,081 $46,208 $36,224 $57,016 $62,231 $64,328 $47,499 $24,422 $34,170
$32,344 $35,299 $26,170 $52,038 $51,155 $39,439 $45,967 $49,448 $54,347 $56,461 $18,730 $62,062 $64,580 $51,516 $51,182 $50,507 $36,453 $64,401 $64,718 $66,827 $51,144 $26,941 $39,678
$23,590 $32,389 $16,569 $39,593 $48,643 $26,865 $33,849 $25,430 $37,957 $43,629 $14,579 $49,907 $61,669 $35,667 $42,371 $41,707 $30,716 $44,876 $60,222 $48,793 $32,601 $18,744 $25,950
29.8% 47.3% 70.8% 23.7% 0.2% 6.4% 3.8% 3.3% 3.0% 10.9% 58.7% 7.5% 6.6% 8.3% 4.3% 9.3% 0.6% 13.0% 4.0% 3.9% 7.7% 10.3% 16.1%
-27.1% -8.2% -36.7% -23.9% -4.9% -31.9% -26.4% -48.6% -30.2% -22.7% -22.2% -19.6% -4.5% -30.8% -17.2% -17.4% -15.7% -30.3% -6.9% -27.0% -36.3% -30.4% -34.6%
$72,269 $90,203 $66,993 $46,180
$76,230 $94,978 $75,520 $50,835
$65,200 $91,239 $61,223 $44,429
5.5% 5.3% 12.7% 10.1%
-14.5% -3.9% -18.9% -12.6%
Source: Rob Paral and Associates based on U.S. Census Bureau data; all dollar amounts adjusted for inflation to 2014 dollars.
Chicago’s Most Distressed Places The losses in income taking place in many Chicago community areas can be characterized in two ways between 1999 and 2010-2014: 1) neighborhoods with predominantly low-income residents (median income below $30,000) that still suffered high percentage losses of income (greater than 30% decline), and; 2) neighborhoods starting at somewhat higher levels (median income over $30,000 but less than $45,000) where the absolute amount of income lost was significant (more than 30% decline).
Rob Paral and Associates – page 7
Chicago Community Income Trends Low Income with High Percentage Decline
Seven Chicago communities had income declines exceeding 30% over the last decade and have median incomes below $30,000. All of them are predominantly AfricanAmerican communities on Chicago’s south and west sides.
Community Areas with Household Income Below $30,000, with Greater than 30% Decline since 1999
37. 68. 27. 47. 69. 43. 71.
Community Area Fuller Park Englewood East Garfield Park Burnside Greater Grand Crossing South Shore Auburn Gresham
Median Household income 1999 $26,170 $26,941 $34,419 $49,448 $39,678 $39,439 $48,664
Median Household income 2010-2014 $16,569 $18,744 $22,103 $25,430 $25,950 $26,865 $29,999
1999 to 2010-2014 # Change -$9,600 -$8,198 -$12,316 -$24,018 -$13,728 -$12,574 -$18,665
1999 to 2010-2014 % Change -36.7% -30.4% -35.8% -48.6% -34.6% -31.9% -38.4%
Source: Rob Paral and Associates based on U.S. Census Bureau data; all dollar amounts adjusted for inflation to 2014 dollars.
Rob Paral and Associates – page 8
Chicago Community Income Trends Somewhat Higher Income with High Absolute Decline
Another 12 communities have median incomes up to $45,000, but also suffered losses of 30% or more. Because they started at higher median incomes, their actual dollar losses in many cases exceeded the actual dollar losses of the poorer communities. These communities tend to be mixed white/Latino areas and somewhat higher income African American.
Community Areas with Household Income $30,000-$45,000, with Greater than 30% Decline since 1999 Community Area Median HH Iincome Median HH income 1999 to 2010-14 1999 to 2010-2014 1999 2010-14 # Change % Change 30. 18. 20. 25. 49. 51. 53. 58. 62. 66. 73. 76.
South Lawndale Montclare Hermosa Austin Roseland South Deering West Pullman Brighton Park West Elsdon Chicago Lawn Washington Heights O'Hare
$45,937 $66,285 $54,237 $47,846 $54,347 $49,447 $57,533 $51,516 $64,401 $51,144 $61,403 $61,888
$31,229 $41,387 $37,327 $31,289 $37,957 $33,496 $34,031 $35,667 $44,876 $32,601 $40,553 $43,259
-$14,708 -$24,899 -$16,910 -$16,558 -$16,390 -$15,951 -$23,501 -$15,849 -$19,525 -$18,543 -$20,850 -$18,628
-32.0% -37.6% -31.2% -34.6% -30.2% -32.3% -40.8% -30.8% -30.3% -36.3% -34.0% -30.1%
Source: Rob Paral and Associates based on U.S. Census Bureau data; all dollar amounts adjusted for inflation to 2014 dollars.
Rob Paral and Associates – page 9
Chicago Community Income Trends Highest Dollar Losses Since 1999 Sorted another way, the ranking of communities suffering the greatest dollar losses over the decade are as follows:
Community Areas with Highest Dollar Losses since 1999 Community Area Change in Percent Change in Income from Income from 1999 1999 to 2010to 2010-2014 2014 18. Montclare -$24,899 -37.6% 47. Burnside -$24,018 -48.6% 53. West Pullman -$23,501 -40.8% 73. Washington Heights -$20,850 -34.0% 62. West Elsdon -$19,525 -30.3% 71. Auburn Gresham -$18,665 -38.4% 76. O'Hare -$18,628 -30.1% 66. Chicago Lawn -$18,543 -36.3% 45. Avalon Park -$18,454 -29.3% 19. Belmont Cragin -$18,240 -29.7% 65. West Lawn -$18,034 -27.0% 13. North Park -$17,658 -25.2% 20. Hermosa -$16,910 -31.2% 25. Austin -$16,558 -34.6% 49. Roseland -$16,390 -30.2% 51. South Deering -$15,951 -32.3% 58. Brighton Park -$15,849 -30.8% Source: Rob Paral and Associates based on U.S. Census Bureau data; all dollar amounts adjusted for inflation to 2014 dollars.
Rob Paral and Associates – page 10
Chicago Community Income Trends
Notes on Data Sources Sources Data are derived from the 1990 and 2000 decennial censuses and from the 2010-2014 American Community Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. Time periods Data from the 1990 and 2000 censuses represent the prior year, i.e., year 2000 census data on income is reported for 1999 because survey respondents are asked about their income in the previous calendar year. Inflation adjustment Inflation adjustment factors for this report were derived from the Census Bureau’s annual Income and Poverty reports.
Acknowledgements Sam Tomko-Jones and Claudia Chi assisted with data preparation of this report.
Rob Paral and Associates – page 11
Chicago Community Income Trends
Appendix: Household Income Data for Chicago Community Areas Median Household Income Adjusted to 2014 Dollars Community Area
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010-14
01. Rogers Park
$48,252
$42,308
$44,078
$44,917
$37,779
02. West Ridge
$69,354
$62,327
$57,920
$58,479
$47,941
03. Uptown
$34,049
$32,784
$36,349
$45,949
$44,229
04. Lincoln Square
$52,570
$47,974
$48,581
$58,130
$62,076
05. North Center
$49,823
$47,721
$53,371
$73,565
$90,279
06. Lake View
$44,837
$48,351
$58,774
$76,583
$75,730
07. Lincoln Park
$42,216
$55,143
$75,638
$97,522
$87,694
08. Near North Side
$46,522
$56,600
$71,338
$82,169
$82,169
09. Edison Park
$69,240
$71,203
$75,677
$81,134
$79,342
10. Norwood Park
$72,975
$72,283
$72,409
$75,902
$70,578
11. Jefferson Park
$64,020
$63,456
$65,359
$70,555
$62,021
12. Forest Glen
$88,086
$85,830
$94,465
$97,033
$84,347
13. North Park
$70,622
$66,405
$64,531
$69,941
$52,283
14. Albany Park
$53,358
$50,271
$50,317
$57,864
$52,666
15. Portage Park
$59,611
$57,002
$59,399
$64,126
$54,773
16. Irving Park
$53,860
$50,572
$53,140
$59,749
$48,758
17. Dunning
$65,185
$63,842
$65,510
$70,167
$60,945
18. Montclare
$61,051
$59,981
$61,099
$66,285
$41,387
19. Belmont Cragin
$56,368
$55,554
$55,139
$61,343
$43,103
20. Hermosa
$53,546
$49,940
$49,304
$54,237
$37,327
21. Avondale
$50,457
$46,574
$49,273
$52,130
$44,388
22. Logan Square
$47,230
$39,685
$41,647
$51,516
$56,115
23. Humboldt Park
$47,436
$37,193
$36,952
$40,832
$32,303
24. West Town
$37,984
$33,380
$35,473
$55,311
$69,962
25. Austin
$52,119
$44,109
$45,876
$47,846
$31,289
26. West Garfield Park
$38,538
$29,376
$27,850
$32,863
$25,362
27. East Garfield Park
$30,205
$24,279
$22,281
$34,419
$22,103
28. Near West Side
$27,293
$18,498
$17,217
$42,054
$70,307
29. North Lawndale
$36,333
$27,675
$23,181
$26,070
$23,107
30. South Lawndale
$44,414
$45,205
$41,050
$45,937
$31,229
31. Lower West Side
$42,136
$37,832
$37,935
$39,460
$35,103
32. Loop
$49,200
$35,577
$89,128
$92,569
$88,756
33. Near South Side
$22,650
$18,513
$12,547
$48,793
$74,175
34. Armour Square
$33,929
$31,262
$24,925
$32,344
$23,590
35. Douglas
$33,038
$26,391
$23,961
$35,299
$32,389
36. Oakland
$21,171
$14,271
$9,346
$15,264
$24,815
37. Fuller Park
$33,489
$23,619
$15,325
$26,170
$16,569
Rob Paral and Associates – page 12
Chicago Community Income Trends 38. Grand Boulevard
$24,329
$16,508
$13,178
$20,152
$30,347
39. Kenwood
$35,408
$37,169
$42,061
$52,038
$39,593
40. Washington Park
$29,035
$20,056
$15,496
$21,547
$22,059
41. Hyde Park
$47,447
$46,096
$51,067
$51,155
$48,643
42. Woodlawn
$31,559
$22,901
$25,227
$25,962
$26,452
43. South Shore
$47,773
$41,523
$37,056
$39,439
$26,865
44. Chatham
$53,129
$47,502
$44,274
$45,967
$33,849
45. Avalon Park
$65,688
$64,734
$63,847
$63,028
$44,574
46. South Chicago
$49,503
$53,080
$42,120
$40,194
$29,452
47. Burnside
$51,239
$60,647
$47,847
$49,448
$25,430
48. Calumet Heights
$72,067
$75,436
$70,513
$65,845
$52,393
49. Roseland
$56,790
$56,415
$52,744
$54,347
$37,957
50. Pullman
$53,489
$57,638
$46,864
$44,013
$38,175
51. South Deering
$60,120
$59,917
$52,618
$49,447
$33,496
52. East Side
$61,764
$65,863
$50,916
$56,461
$43,629
53. West Pullman
$60,422
$61,125
$58,457
$57,533
$34,031
55. Hegewisch
$61,313
$66,499
$57,726
$62,062
$49,907
56. Garfield Ridge
$68,543
$67,552
$60,592
$64,580
$61,669
57. Archer Heights
$62,850
$59,920
$58,462
$56,045
$42,055
58. Brighton Park
$52,141
$48,141
$47,573
$51,516
$35,667
59. McKinley Park
$53,010
$49,051
$49,081
$51,182
$42,371
60. Bridgeport
$48,492
$44,526
$46,208
$50,507
$41,707
61. New City
$47,950
$38,991
$36,224
$36,453
$30,716
62. West Elsdon
$65,517
$61,913
$57,016
$64,401
$44,876
63. Gage Park
$57,338
$55,155
$54,899
$51,826
$37,773
64. Clearing
$67,139
$66,961
$62,231
$64,718
$60,222
65. West Lawn
$65,682
$67,451
$64,328
$66,827
$48,793
66. Chicago Lawn
$55,003
$52,018
$47,499
$51,144
$32,601
67. West Englewood
$49,189
$40,312
$40,777
$37,940
$26,858
68. Englewood
$37,333
$27,885
$24,422
$26,941
$18,744
69. Greater Grand Crossing
$43,244
$36,247
$34,170
$39,678
$25,950
70. Ashburn
$76,864
$77,870
$72,269
$76,230
$65,200
71. Auburn Gresham
$55,277
$56,579
$50,800
$48,664
$29,999
72. Beverly
$79,754
$78,597
$90,203
$94,978
$91,239
73. Washington Heights
$64,814
$66,070
$62,759
$61,403
$40,553
74. Mount Greenwood
$70,776
$66,931
$74,181
$81,717
$87,851
75. Morgan Park
$65,888
$64,597
$66,993
$75,520
$61,223
$0
$64,341
$65,647
$61,888
$43,259
76. O'Hare 77. Edgewater
$49,269
$42,059
$46,180
$50,835
$44,429
CHICAGO
$48,321
$46,559
$48,502
$54,899
$47,831
Rob Paral and Associates – page 13
