Political Science 494 Fall 2012 T/R 9:30 – 10:50 a.m. 310 David Kinley Hall

Prof. Matthew S. Winters [email protected] Office: 315 David Kinley Hall Office Hours: Tuesday 2:30 – 3:30 p.m. or by appointment Junior Honors Seminar: Politics in International Development

Course Description The goal of the Junior Honors Seminar is to provide students with experience doing political science research in preparation for taking PS 496 during their senior year and writing a senior thesis. Students will undertake this research in the context of a substantively-grounded class focused on the politics of international development. The substance of the class is concerned with the ways in which the wealthy countries of the world, international organizations and non-governmental organizations have tried to catalyze or facilitate economic and human development in the poorer countries of the world. Although students will develop, over the course of the semester, significant insight into international develop, the class is organized in such a way that this substantive material is deployed for the purpose of improving political science research skills. Course Goals Through the readings, lectures and assignments, by the conclusion of the semester students should improve their: - capacity for producing original research using primary documents and/or data and an improved capacity for presenting this research in term paper format - understanding of the different research methods employed by social scientists - capacity for reading graphs and understanding presentations of data - basic understanding of regression analysis and how it is used in the social sciences - general awareness of the broad trends in development assistance, development thinking and the relevant actors in development - ability to think in a strategic fashion about what motivates different development actors and how these preferences lead to the particular outcomes that we see in terms of aid allocation, project design, aid coordination, etc. - opinions with regard to the successes and failures of international development and how foreign aid and development should be organized in the future Course Materials There are no required books for the class. All of the assigned readings come from journals or are book excerpts and are available through e-reserves (http://www.library.illinois.edu/ereserves) and/or the course website on Compass (http://compass2g.illinois.edu). Course Requirements and Grading The key aim of this class is to improve student capacity for undertaking original research. To this end, there are a series of assignments over the course of the semester that will culminate in an original

research paper due on the last day of class. The paper will cover a topic of the student’s choosing related to international development. Student should begin thinking about a topic and doing preliminary research early in the semester. Students are encouraged to come to the professor’s office hours to discuss their topics early in the semester. The instructor will provide feedback on each of the submitted parts of the paper, addressing issues of both research design and clarity of composition. Through repeat submission of multiple drafts of material that will be included in the final paper, students are expected both to refine the ideas being employed in their research and also the ways in which they express those ideas. (1) At the end of September, students will submit a first draft of a research design (3-5 pages). This research design will summarize the research question, offer preliminary hypotheses about the answer to the research question and discuss operationalization and measurement of the variables. (2) A revised research design (3-5 pages) will be submitted in mid-October. (3) At the end of October, students will submit a draft of the “first half” of the paper (8-10 pages): the introduction, literature review, hypotheses and methodology sections. (4) The complete first draft of the paper (15-20 pages) is due just before Fall Break. (5) Following Fall Break, students will make in-class presentations of their research over the course of two weeks, describing their research questions, methodologies and preliminary results. (6) The final draft (15-20 pages) is due on the last day of class. There are two supplementary assignments that are intended to help you think about the research process, one of which should also directly contribute to your paper. (7) A summary of a published research paper (3-5 pages) that is relevant to your own research is due in mid-October. This summary will describe the research question, hypotheses, methods and results and then provide your critical analysis. The instructor must approve the paper to be summarized in advance. (8) A summary and discussion of an on-campus social science research presentation (3-5 pages) is due before Fall Break. The instructor must approve the presentation in advance. Finally, this class will raise important questions for global citizens and engage with current policy debates. (9) Student participation in classroom conversation is expected and therefore will be a component of the final grade. Participation can take the form of engaging in full-classroom and/or smallgroup discussions and asking questions on the course material. The instructor will provide feedback during the semester on levels of class participation.

The relative weighting of each of these assignments for the final course grade is as follows: Research Design Revised Research Design Draft of First Part of Paper First Draft of Complete Paper Final Draft of Paper

7.5 10 12.5 12.5 22.5

Class Presentation of Research Summary of Research Paper Summary of Research Presentation Class Participation

10 7.5 7.5 10

Late Assignments: Any late submissions of assignments will be penalized one full letter grade per day unless the instructor has granted previous permission for the assignment to be submitted late. Please bring any concerns to the instructor’s attention as soon as possible. Assignments that are turned in late because of personal emergencies must be accompanied by a letter from the Emergency Dean in the Office of the Dean of Students in order to receive full credit. The Emergency Dean can be reached at 217-333-0050. Academic Honesty: The work that you submit in this class must be your own. When you make use of external sources, you are required to cite them. When in doubt about whether a citation is necessary or not, provide a citation. As described in the University of Illinois Student Code, consequences for plagiarism or other forms of academic dishonesty can include zero points on an assignment, failure for the course or dismissal from the university. Students with Disabilities: The instructor will endeavor to make appropriate accommodations for students with disabilities. As described in the University of Illinois Student Code, these accommodations can be coordinated through the Division of Disability Resources and Educational Services (DRES). The DRES Student Services Office is reachable at 217-333-4603 or [email protected].

Course Schedule Introduction Tuesday 28 August Thursday 30 August – American Political Science Association Meeting – NO CLASS

Debates and Questions in International Development Goals Gain a broad prospective of the debates in international development Think about research questions that have motivated these debates or that emerge from these debates Begin thinking about how we could design research that would try to answer those questions Build basic social science research terminology Tuesday 4 September Jeffrey Sachs. 2005. “The End of Poverty,” Time 14 March: 42-54.

William Easterly. 2009. “Can the West Save Africa?” Journal of Economic Literature 47(2): 373-447 – concentrate on sections 2 (all subsections), 3, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 4 (all subsections), and 5 (all subsections). Thursday 6 September Wolfgang Sachs. 2000. “Development: The Rise and Decline of an Ideal.” Wuppertal Paper No. 108. August. Wuppertal, Germany: Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy. 29 pp.

Conceptualization, Development?

Operationalization

and

Measurement:

What

is

Goals Understand the centrality of conceptualization, operationalization and measurement to the research endeavor Understand the process of moving from the conceptualization of theoretical concepts to the operationalization and measurement of those concepts for the purpose of empirical research Develop an understanding of how to judge the validity of measurements Develop critical skills related to the operationalization of concepts within a piece of empirical research Tuesday 11 September Robert Adcock and David Collier. 2001. “Measurement Validity: A Shared Standard for Qualitative and Quantitative Research,” American Political Science Review 95(3): 529-546. Martin Ravallion, Shaohua Chen, and Prem Sangraula. 2009. “Dollar a Day Revisited,” World Bank Economic Review 23(2): 163-84. Thursday 13 September Amartya Sen. 1999. Development as Freedom. New York: Anchor Books. Introduction (“Development as Freedom”) and Ch. 2 (“The Ends and Means of Development”), pp. 3-13, 35-54. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). 2010. “Innovations in Measuring Inequality and Poverty,” Human Development Report 2010. New York: United Nations Development Programme, pp. 85-100. Suggested Readings Ravi Kanbur and Lyn Squire. 1999. “The Evolution of Thinking about Poverty: Exploring the Interactions,” available at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPOVERTY/Resources/WDR/ evolut.pdf. (Later published in Gerald M. Meier and Joseph E. Stiglitz, eds. 2001. Frontiers of Development Economics – The Future in Perspective. New York: Oxford University Press and The World Bank.)

Stephen Devereux. 2001. “Sen’s Entitlement Approach: Critiques and Counter-critiques,” Oxford Development Studies 29(3): 245-63. Aline Coudouel, Jesko S. Hentschel, and Quentin T. Wodon. 2002. “Chapter 1: Poverty Measurement and Analysis,” available at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPRS1/Resources/ 383606-1205334112622/5467_chap1.pdf. David Hulme and Andrew Shepherd. 2003. “Conceptualizing Chronic Poverty,” World Development 31(3): 403-23. Francisco H. G. Ferreira and Martin Ravillion. 2008. “Global Poverty and Inequality: A Review of the Evidence,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4623, available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1149126&

Theories of Economic Growth and Development Goals Gain an understanding of what characteristics make for a good theory Observe and assess different ways of representing theoretical claims Develop critical skills for assessing the logical shortcomings of theories Observe how new theoretical claims react to and/or build upon existing theories Tuesday 18 September Walt W. Rostow. 1960. The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto. New York: Cambridge University Press. Chapter 2, pp. 4 – 16. John Williamson. 1993. “Democracy and the ‘Washington Consensus,’” World Development 21(8): 1329-36. Thursday 20 September – NO CLASS – Research Day Tuesday 25 September Jeffrey D. Sachs, et al. 2004. “Ending Africa’s Poverty Trap,” Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, available at http://www.unmillenniumproject.org/documents/BPEAEndingAfricasPovertyTrapFINAL.pdf, concentrate on pp. 117-44, 147-58, 167-87. Suggested Readings Michael R. Carter and Christopher B. Barrett. 2006. “The Economics of Poverty Traps and Persistent Poverty: An Asset-Based Approach,” Journal of Development Studies 42(2): 178-99. William Easterly. 2006. “Reliving the 1950s: The Big Push, Poverty Traps, and Takeoffs in Economic Development,” Journal of Economic Growth 11(4): 289-318.

Jeffrey A. Frankel. 2010. “The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 15836, March, 48 pp, available at http://web.hks.harvard.edu/publications/getFile.aspx?Id=504 Joseph Hanlon, Armando Barrientos and David Hulme. 2010. Just Give Money to the Poor: The Development Revolution from the Global South. Sterling, VA: Kumarian Press. Chs. 1-3, pp. 1-51.

Empirical Evidence on the Causes of Economic Growth Goals Improve ability to understand the structure and varieties of empirical research Understand the way that large-N datasets are structured Gain exposure to and understanding of linear regression and the meaning of statistical significance Improve ability to interpret graphically-presented data Develop critical abilities with regard to the linkage between theory and empirical evidence Develop critical abilities with regard to the structure of empirical research Thursday 27 September Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson. 2001. “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation,” American Economic Review 91.5 (December): 1369-1401. Friday 28 September – Research Design Due Tuesday 2 October Video: Lant Pritchett. 2010. “The Best of Aid: Guiding the Movement,” presentation at The Best and Worst of Aid: Accountability, Incentives and Effectiveness Conference, New York University, March, available at http://www.slideshare.net/Aidwatch/pritchett-the-best-of-aid-n-e-w-s-l-i-d-e-s. Suggested Readings James E. Mahon, Jr. 1992. “Was Latin America Too Rich to Prosper? Structural and Political Obstacles to Export-Led Industrial Growth,” Journal of Development Studies 28: 241-63. Robert Wade. 2004. “Is Globalization Reducing Poverty and Inequality?” World Development 32(4): 567-89. Jeffrey D. Sachs. 2005. The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time. New York: Penguin, ch. 9 (“India’s Market Reforms: The Triumph of Hope Over Fear”), pp. 170-87. Mushtaq Khan. 2007. “Governance, Economic Growth and Development since the 1960s,” DESA Working Paper No. 54, August. New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 24 pp.

Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee. 2009. “Big Answers for Big Questions: Thee Presumptions of Growth Policy,” in Jessica Cohen and William Easterly, eds. What Works in Development? Thinking Big and Thinking Small. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, pp. 207-21.

Empirical Evidence on Specific Development Interventions Goals Understand why experiments involving random assignment define the gold standard of empirical social science research Understand how treatment effects are calculated and their statistical significance assessed Relate experimental research to observational research Thursday 4 October Martina Björkman and Jakob Svensson. 2009. “Power to the People: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment on Community-Based Monitoring in Uganda,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 124(2): 735-69. Tuesday 9 October Sebastian Galiani and Ernesto Schargrodsky. 2010. “Property Rights for the Poor: Effects of Land Titling,” Journal of Public Economics 94(9-10): 700-29 Suggested Readings Raghabendra Chattopadhyay and Esther DUglo. 2004. “Women as Policy Makers: Evidence from a Randomized Policy Experiment in India,” Econometrica 72(5): 1409-43. Ruth Levine. 2007. Millions Saved: Proven Successes in Global Health: Case Studies. Washington, D.C.: Center for Global Development. Smallpox (http://www.cgdev.org/doc/millions/MS_case_1.pdf) – 9 pp. HIV/STDs (http://www.cgdev.org/doc/millions/MS_case_2.pdf) – 8 pp. River Blindness (http://www.cgdev.org/doc/millions/MS_case_7.pdf) – 8 pp. Guinea Worm (http://www.cgdev.org/doc/millions/MS_case_11.pdf) – 8 pp. “Elements of Success” (http://www.cgdev.org/section/initiatives/_active/millionssaved/ success) and “Conclusions” (http://www.cgdev.org/section/initiatives/_active/ millionssaved/conclusions) – 4 pp. Benjamin A. Olken. 2007. “Monitoring Corruption: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Indonesia,” Journal of Political Economy 115(2): 200-49. Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo. 2008. “The Experimental Approach to Development Economics,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 14467, November.

Actors and Preferences in International Development Goals Increase awareness of relevant actors in international development and their histories Improve ability to think about the way in which actors strategically pursue outcomes in line with their preferences Understand the way in which certain preferences may motivate behavior that is not in line with stated objectives Thursday 11 October Homi Kharas. 2007. “The New Reality of Aid,” Wolfensohn Center for Development at The Brookings Institution, available at http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2007/08aid_kharas.aspx. Friday 12 October – Revised Research Design Due Tuesday 16 October Erik Werker and Faisal Z. Ahmed. 2008. “What Do Nongovernmental Organizations Do?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 22(2): 73-92. Thursday 18 October Daniel L. Nielson and Michael J. Tierney. 2003. “Delegation to International Organizations: Agency Theory and World Bank Environmental Reform,” International Organization 57: 241-76. Friday 19 October – Research Paper Summary Due Suggested Readings Michael Maren. 1997. The Road to Hell: The Ravaging Effects of Foreign Aid and International Charity. New York: Free Press. Lauchlan T. Munro. 2005. “Focus-Pocus: Thinking Critically about Whether Aid Organizations Should Do Fewer Things in Fewer Countries,” Development and Change 36.6. Carol Lancaster. 2007. Foreign Aid: Diplomacy, Development, Domestic Politics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. William Easterly and Tobias Pfutze. 2008. “Where Does the Money Go? Best and Worst Practices in Foreign Aid,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 22(2): 29-52. Catherine Weaver. 2008. Hypocrisy Trap: The World Bank and the Poverty of Reform. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Theories of Foreign Aid Allocation Goals Use knowledge of actors and preferences to assess and build theories about the allocation of foreign aid Tuesday 23 October Hans J. Morgenthau. 1962. “A Political Theory of Foreign Aid,” American Political Science Review 56(2): 301-309. Suggested Readings Robert D. McKinlay and Richard Little. Allocations,” World Politics 30(1): 58-86.

1977.

“A Foreign Policy Model of U.S. Bilateral Aid

Erik Thorbecke. 2006. “The Evolution of the Development Doctrine, 1950-2005,” UNU-WIDER Research Paper No. 2006/155, December. 37 pp. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith. 2009. “A Political Economy of Aid,” International Organization 63: 309-40.

Theories of Foreign Aid Outcomes Goals Use knowledge of actors and preferences to assess and build theories about foreign aid outcomes Think about the linkages between foreign aid allocation and foreign aid outcomes Thursday 25 October Steven Radelet. 2006. “A Primer on Foreign Aid,” Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 92, July, Washington, D.C. 24 pp. Friday 26 October – Draft of First Part of Final Paper Due Suggested Readings Shantayanan Deverajan and Vinaya Swaroop. 2000. “The Implications of Foreign Aid Fungibility for Development Assistance,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2022, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. Stephen Knack and Aminur Rahman. 2004. “Donor Fragmentation and Bureaucratic Quality in Aid Recipients,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3186, Washington D.C.: The World Bank.

Empirical Evidence on Foreign Aid Allocation Goals Critically assess approaches to the empirical assessment of theories Critically assess the operationalization and measurement of variables Improve understanding of quantitative / statistical analysis Increase vocabulary for discussing quantitative / statistical analysis Develop attitudes toward the trade-offs involved in large-N versus small-N research Tuesday 30 October Peter Schraeder, Steven Hook and Bruce Taylor. 1998. “Clarifying the Foreign Aid Puzzle: A Comparison of American, Japanese, French and Swedish Aid Flows,” World Politics 50(2): 294-323. Thursday 1 November Helen V. Milner and Dustin H. Tingley. 2010. “The Political Economy of U.S. Foreign Aid: American Legislators and the Domestic Politics of Aid,” Economics & Politics 22(2): 200-32. Suggested Readings Alberto Alesina and David Dollar. 2000. “Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why?” Journal of Economic Growth 5(1): 33-63. Robert K. Fleck and Christopher Kilby. 2010. “Changing Aid Regimes? U.S. Foreign Aid from the Cold War to the War on Terror,” Journal of Development Economics 91(2): 185–97. Axel Dreher, Peter Nunnenkamp and Rainer Thiele. 2011. “Are ‘New’Donors Different? Comparing the Allocation of Bilateral Aid between Non-DAC and DAC Donor Countries,” World Development 39(11): 1950–68.

Empirical Evidence on Foreign Aid Effectiveness Goals Continue to improve understanding of quantitative / statistical analysis Develop ability to recognize and understand conditional effects and interactions Use existing empirical evidence to generate new theoretical insights Tuesday 6 November Craig Burnside and David Dollar. 2004. “Aid, Policies and Growth: Revisiting the Evidence,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3251, March. Thursday 8 November Simone Dietrich. 2011. “The Politics of Public Health Aid: Why Corrupt Governments Have Incentives to Implement Aid Effectively,” World Development 39(1): 55-63.

Suggested Readings William Easterly, Ross Levine and David Roodman. 2004. “Aid, Policies, and Growth: Comment,” American Economic Review 94(3):774–80. Steven E. Finkel, Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, and Mitchell A. Seligson. 2007. “The Effects of U.S. Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building, 1990-2003,” World Politics 59(3): 404-39. Roger C. Riddell. 2007. Does Foreign Aid Really Work? New York: Oxford University Press. David Roodman. 2007. “The Anarchy of Numbers: Aid, Development, and Cross-country Empirics,” World Bank Economic Review 21(2): 255–77.

Case Studies of Development Interventions Goals Build knowledge about specific development interventions that have been attempted Think theoretically about the likelihood of and reasons for success of different development interventions Continue to consider trade-offs in large-N versus small-N research Tuesday 13 November – NO CLASS Thursday 15 November Scott Guggenheim, Tatag Wiranto, Yogana Prasta and Susan Wong. 2004. “Indonesia’s Kecamatan Development Program: A Large-Scale Use of Community Development to Reduce Poverty,” presented at Scaling Up Poverty Reduction: A Global Learning Process and Conference in Shanghai, May 25-27. 27 pp. Matthew S. Winters and John A. Gould. 2011. “Betting on Oil: The World Bank’s Attempt to Promote Accountability in Chad,” Global Governance 17: 229-46. Friday 16 November – First Draft Due / Last Day to Submit a Research Presentation Summary Suggested Readings James Ferguson. 1994. The Anti-Politics Machine: Development, Depoliticization and Bureaucratic Power in Lesotho. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. James C. Scott. 1999. Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. David Mosse. 2004. Cultivating Development: An Ethnography of Aid Policy and Practice. Ann Arbor, MI: Pluto Press.

Student Presentations Tuesday 27 November Thursday 29 November Tuesday 4 December Thursday 6 December

Wrap-Up Session Tuesday 11 December - Final Papers Due