2nd SDSN for Mediterranean Conference "Solutions for Agri-Food Sustainability in the Mediterranean" Siena 5-6 March, 2015
SPMP-MED A Sustainable Pest Management technological Platform for the MEDiterranean basin Gilioli G.(1,4), Caroli A.(1), Memo M.(1), Castelli F.(1), Ponti L. (2,4), Gutierrez A.P. (3,4) 1. University of Brescia, Italy
[email protected] 2. ENEA, UTAGRI-ECO, Roma, Italy 3. College of Natural Resources, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA 4. Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agro-ecological Systems, Kensington, California, USA
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1. Introduction • Major challenges in agri-food from now to 2050
Food accessibility: a factor 1.15 from now to 2050
Food production: a factor 2 from now to 2050
Environmental impact: we start from almost 0 2
Sustainability in agriculture • Different meanings and different contexts – Different methods/techniques
• Comparative assessment • The case of pest management – The failure of the classical approach based on chemical control only – The issue of the environmental pollution and health impact 3
Main areas of innovation for sustainable pest management • Management options – Managing agro-ecosystem structure and dynamics • Acting on ecosystem resistance and resilience • E.g.: habitat and community diversity
– New pesticides • Minimizing the impact of the environment and human health
• Decision support systems and decision making (rational pest management schemes how, when and where) – Knowledge – Technologies – Processes of implementation
• Implication for many SDGs
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The proposed solution (Unibs, ENEA, UC-Berkeley, CASAS)
SPMP-MED A Sustainable Pest Management technological Platform for the MEDiterranean basin
Process
Knowledge
Technology 5
2. The knowledge • Damage caused by pest is related to a set of processes and conditions that are knowable in advance • Population dynamics of abundance or prevalence are the key elements of knowledge driving force
Environmental Management Pesticide Management
Population Abundance/ prevalence
Impact on cultivated plants Impact on the environment 6
• Pest is a player in a trophic network • Each level supplies resource to the next • The dynamics of system abundance can be described using the same model in all trophic levels
Sun
Growth Minerals, CO2, H2O
Plant
Gr.
Carnivore
Herbivore Reproduction
Wastage Respiration
Gr.
Repr. Egestion Resp.
Repr. Egestion Resp.
• The processes are based on the supply/demand ratio for resources • Inflow/outflow processes have similar shapes described by the same functions • The functions depend on environmental forcing variables Photosynthate
Sun Growth Minerals, CO2, H2O
Plant
Herbivory
Respiration
Reproduction Egestion
Respiration Temperature
• Temporal population dynamics is described by Physiologically-Based Demographic Models
Birth Death x0(t)
N1(t)
…
N2(t) r1 (t )
1 ( t )
r2 (t )
Ni(t)
rk 1 (t )
ri 1 (t )
i (t )
2 (t )
k = 30
Frequency of maturation
Nk(t)
k = 10 k=5 k=1
times Developmental time
k ( t )
y(t)
• Add the spatial dimension N t 1 x
2
2 xy2 1 N t y exp exp r0 1 N t y dy 2 2 2 2 K N y A t
1
+
• The consideration of the spatial scale (GIS integration occurs at the population level) Region
Area
Geographic distribution
Population
Individual
x,y
Biology
3. The technology • Background – Common structure of knowledge for rational and sustainable pest management schemes – The importance of tools to select, organize and generate knowledge to establish a scientifically-based procedure for the PM, in order – To make the procedure of decision making in PM increasingly standardized by means of decision support tools – The development of a platform 12
• Components of a sustainable pest management technological platform N (t) = N (0) + f (t) - g (t)
Meteo stations
GIS analysis
Input data
Maps
Model
Plant and pests Bio-ecology database
High resolution simulation
• An application: ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change
Climate level
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change Global (coarse topography)
Climate level
Dell’Aquila et al. 2012
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change Global (coarse topography)
Regional (greater detail)
Climate level
Dell’Aquila et al. 2012
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change
Plant level
Climate level
Ponti et al. 2014
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change
Plant level
Climate level
Ponti et al. 2014
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change
Pest level
Plant level
Climate level
Ponti et al. 2014
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive
production under climate change
Pest level
Plant level
Climate level
Ponti et al. 2014
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change
Economic level
Pest level
Plant level
Climate level
Ponti et al. 2014
Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change
Economic level
Change in profit (€ ha-1)
Pest level
Plant level
Climate level
-256
0
431
Ponti et al. 2014
4. The process • Common presumptions in many traditional (top-down) management schemes – Exists a linear chain causes-effects – Consider necessary and sufficient intervention on a single level (often relying on a single technology) – Complexity of interaction between social and ecological sub-systems and between these and management are often disregarded PEST ABUNDANCE
PEST CONTROL
YIELD
• Management: complexity and non linearity – Neither simple approaches nor silver bullet technologies – Rational management schemes are needed
SOCIOECONOMICS
• A classical scheme of a top-down approach in Integrated Pest Management
Env. data
Data gathering
Model output
Experts in modelling
Bio. data
Decision making
Information to the stakeholders Actions (at farm level)
Extension service
Experts in IPM
• The adaptive management approach and the technological innovation systems OPERATIONS DECISION MAKING
- Agronomic - Pests control - Habitat management
AGRO-ECOSYSTEM PLANT HOSTS - Phenology - Status
PESTS - Population dynamics - Status
ENVIRONMENT - Ecosystem properties - Land use - Weather
DATA GATHERING, ANALYSIS AND MODELLING
MONITORING
DATA PROCESSING
- Database - GIS
SYSTEM ANALYSIS AND MODELLING
ACTORSS Individual end-users and organizations Research team and facilitators
Institutions and NGOs
5. CONCLUDING REMARKS • Since the 1970 the approach has been successfully implemented – Different contexts: crop pests (open field and protected crops), invasive alien species, arthropod-transmitted diseases (humans and animals) – Many systems: cotton, cassava, coffee, olive, vineyard, etc. – Many regions: USA, South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Mediterranean area
• Technology use has to be considered as part of innovation system implementation – Focus on the technology – Link innovation and application – Considering the institutional, organizational and cultural dimensions
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• Implications for the good governance – Flexibility of the technology (different scales) – Assessment: exploration of scenarios for sustainable pest management scheme – Analysis of agricultural resilience and adaptability (e.g., climate change) – Bio-economic analysis (risk and opportunity) – Decision support for different stakeholder communities and interests
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• What is the remaining work to do – Improving the architecture of the system and database – Improving generality and developing a user interface
• What we look for – Opportunities for cooperation and involvement in projects – Resources for developing new solutions for the Mediterranean area – Contribute to the design the sustainable development agenda for the Mediterranean region in the area of pest management
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Thank you!
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