2nd SDSN for Mediterranean Conference "Solutions for Agri-Food Sustainability in the Mediterranean" Siena 5-6 March, 2015

SPMP-MED A Sustainable Pest Management technological Platform for the MEDiterranean basin Gilioli G.(1,4), Caroli A.(1), Memo M.(1), Castelli F.(1), Ponti L. (2,4), Gutierrez A.P. (3,4) 1. University of Brescia, Italy [email protected] 2. ENEA, UTAGRI-ECO, Roma, Italy 3. College of Natural Resources, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA 4. Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agro-ecological Systems, Kensington, California, USA

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1. Introduction • Major challenges in agri-food from now to 2050

Food accessibility: a factor 1.15 from now to 2050

Food production: a factor 2 from now to 2050

Environmental impact: we start from almost 0 2

Sustainability in agriculture • Different meanings and different contexts – Different methods/techniques

• Comparative assessment • The case of pest management – The failure of the classical approach based on chemical control only – The issue of the environmental pollution and health impact 3

Main areas of innovation for sustainable pest management • Management options – Managing agro-ecosystem structure and dynamics • Acting on ecosystem resistance and resilience • E.g.: habitat and community diversity

– New pesticides • Minimizing the impact of the environment and human health

• Decision support systems and decision making (rational pest management schemes  how, when and where) – Knowledge – Technologies – Processes of implementation

• Implication for many SDGs

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The proposed solution (Unibs, ENEA, UC-Berkeley, CASAS)

SPMP-MED A Sustainable Pest Management technological Platform for the MEDiterranean basin

Process

Knowledge

Technology 5

2. The knowledge • Damage caused by pest is related to a set of processes and conditions that are knowable in advance • Population dynamics of abundance or prevalence are the key elements of knowledge  driving force

Environmental Management Pesticide Management

Population Abundance/ prevalence

Impact on cultivated plants Impact on the environment 6

• Pest is a player in a trophic network • Each level supplies resource to the next • The dynamics of system abundance can be described using the same model in all trophic levels

Sun

Growth Minerals, CO2, H2O

Plant

Gr.

Carnivore

Herbivore Reproduction

Wastage Respiration

Gr.

Repr. Egestion Resp.

Repr. Egestion Resp.

• The processes are based on the supply/demand ratio for resources • Inflow/outflow processes have similar shapes described by the same functions • The functions depend on environmental forcing variables Photosynthate

Sun Growth Minerals, CO2, H2O

Plant

Herbivory

Respiration

Reproduction Egestion

Respiration Temperature

• Temporal population dynamics is described by Physiologically-Based Demographic Models

Birth Death x0(t)

N1(t)

…

N2(t) r1 (t )

1 ( t )

r2 (t )

Ni(t)

rk 1 (t )

ri 1 (t )

i (t )

2 (t )

k = 30

Frequency of maturation

Nk(t)

k = 10 k=5 k=1

times Developmental time

k ( t )

y(t)

• Add the spatial dimension N t 1 x   

2

2  xy2    1   N t y    exp  exp r0 1  N t y   dy  2 2    2 2 K N y  A  t    

1

+

• The consideration of the spatial scale (GIS integration occurs at the population level) Region

Area

Geographic distribution

Population

Individual

x,y

Biology

3. The technology • Background – Common structure of knowledge for rational and sustainable pest management schemes – The importance of tools to select, organize and generate knowledge to establish a scientifically-based procedure for the PM, in order – To make the procedure of decision making in PM increasingly standardized by means of decision support tools – The development of a platform 12

• Components of a sustainable pest management technological platform N (t) = N (0) + f (t) - g (t)

Meteo stations

GIS analysis

Input data

Maps

Model

Plant and pests Bio-ecology database

High resolution simulation

• An application: ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change

Climate level

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change Global (coarse topography)

Climate level

Dell’Aquila et al. 2012

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change Global (coarse topography)

Regional (greater detail)

Climate level

Dell’Aquila et al. 2012

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change

Plant level

Climate level

Ponti et al. 2014

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change

Plant level

Climate level

Ponti et al. 2014

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change

Pest level

Plant level

Climate level

Ponti et al. 2014

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive

production under climate change

Pest level

Plant level

Climate level

Ponti et al. 2014

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change

Economic level

Pest level

Plant level

Climate level

Ponti et al. 2014

Ecosystem and bio-economic assessments of olive production under climate change

Economic level

Change in profit (€ ha-1)

Pest level

Plant level

Climate level

-256

0

431

Ponti et al. 2014

4. The process • Common presumptions in many traditional (top-down) management schemes – Exists a linear chain causes-effects – Consider necessary and sufficient intervention on a single level (often relying on a single technology) – Complexity of interaction between social and ecological sub-systems and between these and management are often disregarded PEST ABUNDANCE

PEST CONTROL

YIELD

• Management: complexity and non linearity – Neither simple approaches nor silver bullet technologies – Rational management schemes are needed

SOCIOECONOMICS

• A classical scheme of a top-down approach in Integrated Pest Management

Env. data

Data gathering

Model output

Experts in modelling

Bio. data

Decision making

Information to the stakeholders Actions (at farm level)

Extension service

Experts in IPM

• The adaptive management approach and the technological innovation systems OPERATIONS DECISION MAKING

- Agronomic - Pests control - Habitat management

AGRO-ECOSYSTEM PLANT HOSTS - Phenology - Status

PESTS - Population dynamics - Status

ENVIRONMENT - Ecosystem properties - Land use - Weather

DATA GATHERING, ANALYSIS AND MODELLING

MONITORING

DATA PROCESSING

- Database - GIS

SYSTEM ANALYSIS AND MODELLING

ACTORSS Individual end-users and organizations Research team and facilitators

Institutions and NGOs

5. CONCLUDING REMARKS • Since the 1970 the approach has been successfully implemented – Different contexts: crop pests (open field and protected crops), invasive alien species, arthropod-transmitted diseases (humans and animals) – Many systems: cotton, cassava, coffee, olive, vineyard, etc. – Many regions: USA, South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Mediterranean area

• Technology use has to be considered as part of innovation system implementation – Focus on the technology – Link innovation and application – Considering the institutional, organizational and cultural dimensions

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• Implications for the good governance – Flexibility of the technology (different scales) – Assessment: exploration of scenarios for sustainable pest management scheme – Analysis of agricultural resilience and adaptability (e.g., climate change) – Bio-economic analysis (risk and opportunity) – Decision support for different stakeholder communities and interests

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• What is the remaining work to do – Improving the architecture of the system and database – Improving generality and developing a user interface

• What we look for – Opportunities for cooperation and involvement in projects – Resources for developing new solutions for the Mediterranean area – Contribute to the design the sustainable development agenda for the Mediterranean region in the area of pest management

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Thank you!

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