T.HANSEN I.IANOS G.PASCARIU V.PLATON D.SANDU
PROFILES OF ROMANIA DEVELOPMENT REGIONS -working paper-
PHARE PROGRAMME-REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY RAMBOLL CONSULTANCY GROUP BUCURESTI, October 1997
Contents Introduction..........................................................................................................1 NORTH - EAST DEVELOPMENT REGION............................................................2 SOUTH DEVELOPMENT REGION......................................................................13 SOUTH-WEST REGION.......................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. WEST DEVELOPMENT REGION........................................................................22 NORTH-WEST DEVELOPMENT REGION...........................................................28 CENTRAL DEVELOPMENT REGION.................................................................30 Annex tables ......................................................................................................35 Table 1: Development indices by macroregions 35 Table 2: Key indices of subregion’s development profile.....................37 Table 3: Key indices of judet’s development profile.............................38 Table 4:Population composition by subregions .....................................39 Table 5: Population composition by judets............................................40 Table 6: Labor structure and use by subregions ...................................41 Table 7: Labor structure and use by judets ..........................................42 Table 8: Built infrastructure by subregions...........................................43 Table 9: Built infrastructure by judets.................................................44 Table 10: Household level of living by subregions..................................45 Table 11: Household level of living by judets.........................................46
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Introduction Regional policy of Romania is conceived to having as basic regional policy units 8 macroregions and priority/problem areas to be defined. The present document is intended to making an introduction portraying the development profiles of macroregions and their subregions. Participation rate as measured by the number of employed people to 1000 inhabitants is a major differential among the regions. It has the highest values for West, Center and Bucuresti regions and the lowest ones for North-East region. Level of living indicators - infant mortality rate, private car ownership, household infrastructure etc. - and education stock ones follow, generally, the same regional pattern as participation rate. Each macroregion is having its center and periphery subregions. The subregions are differentiated mainly by population composition. Center subregions are characterized by higher education stocks, younger population, non-agricultural employment, low unemployment, better health situation. Each peripheral region could be considered as a problem area to be addressed by priority actions. It could be a priority area in the reference region. Empirically, a periphery subregion is easily recognized by the fact that it has negative values for the index of human development, meaning by that levels under the national average. Botosani-Vaslui in the North-East region and Ialomita-Calarasi-GiurgiuTeleorman in the South are by far the poorest subregions in the country. Their poverty is mainly in terms of human capital (low education, poor communication potential, poor health). Specific vicious circles of interaction between social and economic factors constituted at the local level in these subregions and are fostering the poverty culture and status. Botosani and Vaslui are a kind of poverty nucleus in a whole historical region that is low developed. The four judets in the South are in the situation of a poverty island. They are limited by quite well off areas of Bucuresti and Prahova, Arges and Dambovita. The most homogeneous region is located in the North-East. The fact that heterogeneity is quite consistent in some regions has negative and positive side for regional policy. Here the controversy between center and peripheral subregions for funds allocation could be higher. But as far as developed and disadvantaged areas in a region have complementary potential for development, and communication linkages they could work together for coping with development problems. Growth poles located at the border between center and peripheral subregions could play an important role in solving regional problems. The development profiles are built on the basis of judet statistical information. It is clear that further analysis should go deeper at commune and city level. Each macroregion by its development agencies should consider the necessity of getting a higher awareness of its regional problems and development potential by special studies at locality level, by ignoring judets limits.
1
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
NORTH - EAST DEVELOPMENT REGION General outline The North - East region includes 6 judets: Botosani, Bacau, Iasi, Neamt, Suceava and Vaslui. It covers the North-eastern corner of the country. Its limits goes up to the border with Ukraine in the North, to the Prut river in the East - the natural border with the Republic of Moldova -, down to the Southern limits of Bacau and Vaslui judets, and reach in the East the tops of the Oriental Carpathians. Traditionally, the region is part of the old historical region of Moldova 1. The judet of Suceava is also known as a part of a smaller historical region, named Bucovina (the Beech - tree Country). The region as such, has many common traits, but also significant economic, social and cultural differences. Whether Iasi, for instance represents the cultural symbol of the region, Bacau and Neamt judets, are the most industrialised areas, whereas Suceava is famous for its touristic attractions. From the point of view of the global development level, Vaslui and Botosani are less advanced than the others. Important differences are to be found among the urban and rural areas too. The region appears to be one of the poorest (if not the poorest one) in România, facing a large range of problems, from high unemployment and poor infrastructure to environmental issues. A study carried out by the World Bank in 19972 indicates that there are over 1.1 million people in these 6 judets, living below the poverty threshold, which is close to 1/4th of the total poor population of România. This position is also confirmed by the values of the INDEV3 (Index of Global Development), calculated for the Romanian judets at the level of the year 1994. According to the scores of the INDEV and the final hierarchy established, all 6 judets are below the average value (50), and Botosani and Vaslui are the last two ones with only 34 and 31 points. These two judets distinguish themselves from the rest, not only by their ranking but also by a certain similarity of profile and development problems. The following lines will point out, briefly the main characteristics and issues of the region as well as the major disparities within it, and between it and other regions.
1
There should be no confusion between what is called the historic region of Moldova and the Republic of Moldova, former component of the SU, and than of the CIS, now an independent state, and which includes parts of the historical region of Moldova too. 2
Romania, Poverty and Social Policy, report no. 16462 - RO, World Bank, HRS Operation Division, Country Department I, Europe and Central Asia Region, April 1997 3
The index INDEV was calculated as a standardised value (HULL score method) of 17 economic, demographic, infrastructure and living standard indicators. A hierarchy of the judets development level was established, according to the values of the global index (see Regional Disparities in Romania 1990 - 1994, report of the Rambrll Consultancy Group, within the PHARE programme for Regional Development Policy in Romania, July 1996).
2
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Geography The region covers an area of about 36,850 sqkm representing 15.5% of the total surface of the country and is the largest of the 8 regions. The geography of the region is dominated by mountainous and hilly areas, which cover more than 2/3 of the total surface. However, within the region, there are also important plains and lowland areas in the Northeast and Eastern parts. A crossing cut over the region shows, in general a slope which goes down from West to East with certain variations. To the West, the Carpathians stay like a high rising wall, going up to 2,000 meters heights to the North. To the East, there are first the Subcarpathians, with average heights of 7-800 metres, which surround the mountains as a tight belt. Then the Eastern half is split into two major areas: the Moldavian plain in the Northern part and the Bârlad Tableland in the Southern part. A big river, Siret, coming from the North of Bucovina region (now in Ukraine) is crossing the region from North to South and splits it practically into two, creating a natural corridor. It is one of the longest rivers in România and has the largest basin, except the Danube. Its tributaries come mainly from the West, springing from the tops of the mountains. The main streams are, from North to South: Suceava, Moldova, Bistrita and Trotus. On the East side, the main stream is the river Bârlad, which collects its waters from the large tableland bearing the same name and from the hilly areas known as the Tutova Knolls and the Falciu Hills. The north-west of the region is also known as the Suceava Tableland with an average height of 500 metres, and is famous for its “obcine” - smooth undulations of the relief as a chain of petrified waves. The north-east half is covered by the Moldavian Plain with average heights of 200 - 250 metres, irrigated by small rivers (the most important are the Jijia and the Bahlui) flowing into the river Prut. Along it the relief descends as the river goes South, and creates specific lowlands areas, ever larger, as it approaches the Danube, where it flows into, near the city of Galati. The various types of relief create different climatic areas with significant differences between the mountainous ones and the hilly and plain areas. Notwithstanding a temperate moderate climate in general, with significant differences along the 4 seasons of the year, some areas are however characterised by peculiar traits, such as the case is, of the South-eastern area, with a dry climate and a certain scarcity of the rain and snowfalls.
3
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
The total population of the area is 3.8 millions people4, representing 16.7% of the total country population. It is the largest region from this point of view too. The territorial density is 102.7 inhabitants/sqkm, (against 95.1 the national average), but it is far from an even distribution. The most populated judet is Iasi with over 800,000 inhabitants and a density of 150 inhabitants/sqkm, whereas Botosani and Vaslui are the smallest ones with a population of about 460,000 each. The highest densities can be found on the right side of the river Siret, along the valleys of rivers Bistrita and Trotus, and in the Suceava Tableland area. The mountainous area in the West, the Tutova Knolls and Falciu Hills areas, the Moldavian Plain and the lowlands areas, are on the contrary less populated. The population is located in 32 urban centres and 463 communes5, composed of 2421 villages. The total urban population is 1.68 millions (44.2%), whereas the total rural population is 2.1 millions (55.8%). The territorial densities are 6.6 villages/100 sqkm and 0.9 towns/1000 sqkm, against 5.5 and 1.1 at national level. The density of the rural network is specific for the areas where the relief is not flat. The size of the villages is in general medium and small, with an average size of 870 inhabitants. They are mostly spread along the valleys of the many streams that are crossing the region. Not all the rural areas are alike; some are more developed, some are very poor. Two extremes can be mentioned in that respect: • from the 1st category - the hilly and mountainous areas of Suceava judet, where forestry and livestock breeding are traditional prosperous activities, where the natural increase has still high values (3.2‰) and the average size of a village gets over 1,100 inhabitants; • from the 2nd one - the Tutova Knolls, from Vaslui judet characterised by a scarcity of the natural resources, where the process of self depopulation is quite strong 6, so that the average size of a village drops under 600 inhabitants, (in spite of a high territorial density which reaches 14 - 15 villages/100 sqkm).
4
The source for the population figures is the Romanian Statistical Yearbook, 1996 (National Commission for Statistics). The figures are for the 1st of July 1995. If not specified otherwise, the figures in the report refer to 1995. 5
The communes are rural administrative areas composed of one or several villages. The capital village of the commune is where the Local Council headquarters is located. 6 Over the period of 25 years between the Censuses from 1966 and 1992, the rural population within this area decreased by 20 - 30 %, in most of the villages.
4
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
The North - East Region can be seen as one of the ethnically most homogenous areas. The Romanians represent here 98% of the total population (against 89.4% the national mean). In 4 out of the 6 judets, more than 90% of the population is orthodox; only in Bacau and Neamt there is a significant number of Roman - Catholics believers (10% and respectively 17% of the judet population). The region can be also seen as the main centre of origin for the mass outmigration to other judets. During the last decades it became - and this is especially true for the rural space - a feeding area for the main urbanised and industrialised centres of the country, such as Bucuresti, Brasov, Constanta, Galati, Timis, or the Jiu Valley. Within the region, Iasi and to a certain extent Bacau, were the main centres of attraction. Even today, when the natural increase has negative values (-1.6‰) at national level, the component judets of the region register positive trends for the vitality indicators, in both rural and urban areas7. Urbanisation The figures for urban and rural population are reversed, compared to the national mean values (54.9%, urban and 45.1% rural). The urban network is composed of 32 towns of different sizes, between 4,700 (Solca, in Suceava) and 344,000 inhabitants (Iasi). A grouping by categories shows the following situation:
category
number
no. of inhabitants
% of the urban population judet level
national level
large
>100,000
5
55
57
medium
20,000 99,999
14
36
30
small
<20,000
13
9
13
32
100
100
total
Iasi alone concentrates more than 20% of the urban population and 9% of the total one and represent the main urban, industrial and cultural centre of the region. The concentration degree in the big cities is quite high, and even more impressive if the population of the first 10 cities8 is considered - 1.27 millions inhabitants, i.e. 3/4 of the total urban population. 7
In 1996 only 10 judets register positive values of natural increase rate and 6 are in the region NE. In the rural areas, only 7 have a positive trend and 5 are in the region NE, Botosani being the one single exception. 8 The first 10 cities of the region are: Iasi (343,330 inhab), Bacau (208,519 inhab), Botosani (129,099 inhab), Piatra-Neamt (126,569 inhab), Suceava (117,609 inhab), Roman (82,556 inhab), Vaslui (80,665 inhab), Bârlad (79,517 inhab), Onesti (60,485 inhab), Pascani ( 45,939).
5
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
The urban network is less developed, compared to other regions, in terms of territorial density and has a weak base, that is a very weak category9 of small size towns. This is the consequence of the last decades of the former communist period, when the main investments were concentrated in the judet capital cities and in some major industrial centres, such as Roman, or Onesti. Most of the small and medium small towns are the product of the forced industrialisation age (6 and 7 decades), depending on one single big industrial unit and on a narrowly specialised labour force. For these reasons they are the most vulnerable areas during the transition period, being the first ones, to be stroked by the restructuring process and by unemployment. The first 10 cities concentrate on the other hand the majority of the administrative and social facilities, have the highest living and social standards and represent the main attraction poles for new investments and developments. Under the new circumstances, there is no doubt that the gaps between them and the rest of the localities will increase. Natural resources and economic profile The main resources of the region are the agricultural land (57% of the total land area), and the wood10 (the forests represent 34% of the total area). The region can be characterised by a certain scarcity of the mineral resources. Among them, the most important are the brown coal, the oil and the natural gas from the Moinesti Comanesti basin (Bacau judet), the salt in Târgul - Ocna (Bacau judet) and Cacica (Suceava judet) and the non-ferrous minerals in the Western side of Suceava judet. Building materials are also available, such as building stones quarries mainly in the West and argyle, mainly in the East. The main activity of the region is agriculture, 42% of the occupied population being involved in this sector against 25% only, in industry. The main agricultural sectors are the cereals production (64% of the agricultural land is arable) and the livestock breeding (pastures and meadows cover 33% of the total agricultural land). The grape and wine production are mainly located in only 2 judets: Iasi and Vaslui. However agriculture can be globally characterised as a low productivity one, due to both geography (high percentage of sloppy areas) and poor technical facilities such as the endowment with tractors and agricultural machines, or the low percentage of the agricultural land with irrigation facilities (4% of the total, against 13% at national level).
9
Among the 13 small towns 6 became towns only during the last 3 decades and have a mono - industrial structure. 10
The region provides 1/4th of the standing timber volume in the economic circuit, the main producers being the 3 Western judets.
6
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Industry is concentrated in the main urban centres such as Iasi, Bacau, Piatra Neamt, Suceava, Botosani, Roman, Barlad, Vaslui, Onesti. The main industrial branches are wood processing, crude oil processing, chemical and synthetic and artificial fibres, metallic constructions and metallic products, machinery and equipment, textiles and textile products, food and beverages. With some exceptions most of the industrial branches were artificially developed, not on the basis of the existing local raw materials, but on the basis of two principles of the former communist regime: to provide jobs for people at any price and to satisfy the necessities of the COMECON market. As a consequence, the industrial structure of the North - East Region seems very fragile for the free market economy, due to its low productivity and economic efficiency. Actually many units from the textile sector, chemistry and metallic products, were already confronted with recession and redundancy. The most recent case is the refinery from Darmanesti, one of the first 17 enterprises to be closed by the Government this very summer, since the accelerated reform process has started. The high percentage of unemployment - 14% globally, but 17% in Botosani and Neamt (against 10% the national mean) - is a proof that the region is facing difficult economic issues. Major territorial utilities From North to South the region is crossed by a major corridor for transportation, both by road and by railway, linking some of the main urban centres of the region. This corridor makes the connection to the capital city and to Ukraine in the North too. A second important corridor links Iasi to the main one, along the valley of Barlad river. To the East the main connections to the Republic of Moldova go via Iasi (on railway) and Husi (by road). The links to the West of the country can be considered a weakness of the region. The high mountainous wall acts as a natural barrier, which can be crossed in 3 points only: Tihuta in the North (between Vatra-Dornei and Bistrita), Bicaz in the middle (near by the city of Piatra-Neamt) and Ghimes in the South (along the valley of the river Trotus). The main crossing points of the region are from South to North: Adjud, Bârlad, Bacau, Roman, Pascani and Suceava. The major weaknesses of the region are, in the general the scarcity of the crossing links (East - West) and the quality of the roads which have one of the lowest percentages of modernised roads (21%). Three national airports are located in the region: one in Iasi, a second one in Bacau and a third one near Suceava, at an almost equal distance from Botosani too. The current connections are only via Bucuresti.
7
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Some major works should be mentioned in the energetic and water management fields. One of the first hydro-energetic plant was built on the river Bicaz (the accumulation lake here is still the 2nd in the country by volume at normal level) and a few big thermoelectric plants were located by the cities of Iasi, Bârlad, Onesti and Piatra-Neamt. One of the biggest accumulation lakes (the 2nd in size) in the country, used mainly for floods prevention and irrigation systems is the one achieved on the river Prut, at Stanca - Costesti, in the North of the region (Botosani judet). Environment The main environmental problems at regional scale regard the deforestation processes and the soil erosion. Both are connected with the primary activities, such as agriculture and forestry. The most affected areas are the main valleys in the Western part of the region (Trotus, Tazlau, Bistrita) and along the Prut. Soil erosion specially affects the Eastern part of the region. Punctually, environmental problems are connected with the main industrial activities. The mining area from Comanesti basin is affected by soil contamination with oil. The Trotus valley is affected by the chemical processing industry. The main industrial urban centres such as, Iasi, Bacau, Roman are currently affected by industrial pollution. Water pollution is also an issue in some sectors. The region is famous on the other hand, for its natural beautiful landscapes and for its natural reserves. These are located mainly in the mountainous area; here, about 40,000 ha of national parks reserves were declared: Ceahlau (Neamt), Caliman (Suceava) and Bicaz Canyon (Neamt). The beauties of nature together with some of the most impressive creations of the religious architecture, are located in the North and North-west of the region. They can become a very important touristic attraction and by that an important economic input for the whole area. DEMOGRAPHY The main characteristics of the region are the high rate of the natural growth, based on a family model with more than 2 children and an important rate of migration both from rural to urban areas within the region and outside the region, towards other judets. Since 1990 the tendency was in general the constant and continuous reduction of these rates in absolute figures. Yet, they remained high compared to the rest of the country. For a more detail evaluation of the demographic characteristics of the region 4 indicators were calculated: the % of the aged population (over 65 years) out of the total population, the % of the over 12 years old population with only primary education11, the % of the urbanised population and the % of the urban population in cities of more than 100,000 inhabitants. Based on these indicators, a comparative analysis can be developed both regional - national and within the region itself.
11
The data for this indicator refer to the Census from January 1992.
8
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Globally the region is characterised by a rather young population (only 11% aged people, against 12% at national level), a normal consequence of the positive growth rate. However the situation is different among the 6 component judets. Suceava, less urbanised, Vaslui and Botosani with high rates of out-migration have a quite aged population (12% to 14%), whereas the other 3 judets more urbanised or/and industrialised have a younger population (10% to 11% aged population). The strong out-migration of the young and adult population12 combined with a low urbanisation are responsible for the high percentages of population with only primary education (37% in Vaslui and 40% in Botosani against 32% at the regional level and 28% at national level). The best situation is in Suceava judet - 27% (lower than the national mean), in spite of its low urbanisation and industrialisation. Culturally and historically, Suceava belongs more to Bucovina region and had an earlier relationship with the European civilisation (during the Habsburgic domination), which may explain the present differences. The most urbanised judets are Iasi and Bacau. However all 6 are below the national mean. The more urbanised the judets the higher the percentage of the better educated people and the lower the percentage of the aged population. Suceava is an exception from this rule, whereas Vaslui and Botosani represent the most backward judets of the region with an aged population, high percentage of uneducated people, low urbanisation and lack of important urban centres (which explains for instance the lack of a higher education institution in any of these two). ECONOMY The participation rates of the population (expressed by the number of salaried people to 1000 inhabitants), the percentages of the employees in industry and agriculture and the unemployment rate are the main indicators for the economic analysis of the region. As already mentioned, the North - East region can be globally characterised as an agricultural one with some industrial concentration areas. The most industrialised judet is Bacau with 32% of employees in industry (against 29% at national level) and only 30% employees in agriculture (against 34% nationally). The most agricultural one is Botosani with 18% and respectively 54%. Vaslui and Suceava have around half of the occupied population in the primary sector and less than a quarter in the industrial one. Iasi is a special case: the presence of the big city with many tertiary jobs reduces the weight of the agricultural and industrial sectors to less than 60% of the occupied population, whereas in the rest of the judets, excepting Bacau, it goes up to more than 70% (at national level the percentage is 63).
12
It was recognised that there are two main factors responsible for the high rates of out-migration in these judets: the need for jobs and education. As a consequence, the target groups affected by this phenomenon are: the adults and the youngsters.
9
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Neamt is a typical example of an industrial - agricultural judet, with a low level of urbanisation, low economic diversification and low development of the tertiary sector. This is a reason for it being one the most affected judets by unemployment, with a rate of 17% (against 10% nationally) and with one of the biggest decrease of the participation rate of the population: 69%13 (against 76% at national level). Vaslui and Botosani are both characterised by very low participation rates (around 180/1000 inhabitants) - 2/3 from the national average (272/1000 inhabitants), by a strong economic recession and high unemployment (15%, respectively 17%)14. Iasi and Bacau on the other hand have better survived the transition: the participation rates are quite high (over 250/1000 inhabitants), dynamic of participation low (around 80%) and a rate of unemployment close to the national mean (13%, respectively 11%). Suceava, once again has a different configuration with low but moderate values for all indicators, which might indicate that transition here had softer effects, due to some internal resources probably, such as tourism, forestry or livestock breeding. In the end the region as a whole has the lowest participation rate (222/1000 inhabitants) in the country and the highest rate of unemployment (14%). It is obviously the effect of the artificial and mono-structural industrial development of the last decades, of the backwardness of the agricultural sector, and of the low development of the tertiary sector. The biggest issue is the constant and continuous degradation of the economy during the last 8 years. The situation is expected to worsen in the near future as the restructuring of the mining sector (in Valea Jiului, Oltenia etc.) will begin and many former out-migrants from Moldova will return home, increasing the pressure on the local labour market.
INFRASTRUCTURE Infrastructure was globally characterised by the density of the transportation networks, by the percentage of the modernised public roads and by two housing specific indicators: living floor area by dwelling and by person. The railway lines density varies from 23km/1000sqkm in Neamt to 53km/1000sqkm in Iasi, with a regional mean of 41km/1000sqkm (against 48km/1000sqkm, nationally). However the lower figures of Neamt and Bacau can be explained by the mountainous areas, covering more than half of their size. The public roads density varies from 27km/100sqkm in Suceava, to 43km/100sqkm in Iasi, with a regional mean of 34km/100sqkm (against 31km/100sqkm, nationally). However the figures are not relevant; they should be seen within the geographical context, which is characterised by many hilly and mountainous areas. This may explain the length of the roads network, which has to wind along the narrow valleys and numerous slopes, but does not reflect a proper coverage of the regional space.
13
The dynamic of the participation rate is expressed as the proportion of the number of salaried people in 1995 from the number of salaried people in 1990. 14
There are many resemblance between these judets and the 4 judets from the Southern Romanian Plain (Teleorman, Giurgiu, Calarasi and Ialomita): the lowest participation rates in the country, the highest recession, the most agricultural and the less industrialised ones.
10
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
In terms of quality, the percentages of the modernised roads vary between 16% in Vaslui and 28% in Suceava, with a global regional value of 21% (against 24% nationally). Iasi has an incredibly low percentage too, of only 18%, whereas Vaslui has 17%. It is worth to mention that only 4 other judets in the country have a percentage of less than 20% modernised public roads (Buzau, Galati, Olt and Vrancea). The housing indicators are more relevant for regional comparative purposes. The global figures are below the national means and the eastern judets have smaller dwellings than the western ones, as may be seen in the table below: INDIC ATOR
NORT H-EAST REGI
(Botosani, Iasi, Vaslui)
32sq
29sqm - 31sqm
ON living floor area/dwelling
m
living floor area/person
m
EASTERN HALF
WESTERN HALF
C OUNTRY
(Suceava, Neamt, Bacau)
33sqm - 34sqm
34 sqm
10sq
9sqm - 10sqm
10sqm - 11sqm
12 sqm
The small dwelling is a traditional specific feature of the Moldavian region, specially for the eastern part, where poverty combined with the lack of durable building materials15 did not allowed large and comfortable dwellings to be built. In the urban areas, the size of the dwellings is bigger, but the density of population is higher, so that the living floor area/person remains low. In general, the housing sector can be seen as a big regional issue, if qualitative indicators would be added, such as: the state of the dwellings, or the endowment with technical utilities.
LIVING STANDARD The living standard was evaluated by 4 indicators which were considered to have a strong relevance: the infant mortality rate16 as an expression of the totality of the health and education conditions; the rate of out-migration to other judets, as an expression of the global attractiveness or rejection of the region; the number of private cars to 1000 inhabitants as an expression of the household incomes; the number of telephone subscriptions as an important aspect of modernisation. The infant mortality rate varies between 24‰ in Suceava and 31‰ in Botosani. Once again, a sensible difference can be observed between the eastern and the western groups of judets, the former being registered with higher values than the latter. Two judets - Botosani and Vaslui are by far the areas with the lowest living standard in the region. They are both facing a very high rate of out-migration (22‰, respectively 26‰), the highest in the country in fact - , they have both the lowest number of cars/1000 persons in the whole country (36‰, respectively 30‰), and some of the lowest figures for the telephone subscriptions (78‰, respectively 73‰). 15
Most of the rural dwellings are built even today with argyle bricks and wooden structure.
16
This indicator was computed as a mean value for three years: 1993, 1994, 1995.
11
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Iasi and Bacau have contradictory figures. The low rate of the out-migration in Iasi can be explained by the attraction of the capital city. However the rest of almost 60% of the judet population does not seem to enjoy a reasonable living standard. Bacau seems to be characterised by a higher standard of the average household, but is still confronted with a high rate of out-migration. Neamt is closer to Botosani and Vaslui from the point of view of the living conditions, whereas Suceava, in spite of a rather low household technical endowment enjoys a certain stability of the population. A global view of the region makes these differences almost insignificant, when compared to the rest of the country. Almost all indicators for each of the 6 component judets are below the national means, whereas the regional global indicators for infant mortality, outmigration and cars are much below any of the other 7 regions, as it may be seen in the table below. North east
South east
South
South west
West
North west
Centre
Capital
Country
infant mort. rate
28
24
24
22
22
21
17
17
23
outmigration
16
10
8
9
7
9
10
3
9
private cars
48
78
81
77
106
88
112
152
89
102
117
100
86
124
120
133
290
129
region/ indicator
telephones
From the point of view of the living standard level, the region should be considered globally as the most backward in the country.
CONCLUSIONS The region appears to be one of the less developed region in the country according to most of the indicators. It is also a region with a certain fragility in relation with the new economic conditions, less prepared to face the reform process, the free competition and also with a population characterised by a certain conservatory feeling than by openness to change and modernisation. The low level of utilisation of the labour force17, the strong negative values 18 of the Human Capital Index , should pull an alarm trigger on this region, where special policies needs to be implemented as soon as possible.
17
The values for Botosani and Vaslui are -257, whereas for the other 4 judets _-79, the lowest in the country.
18
The negative values for Botosani and Vaslui are -159, the lowest in the country. The other 4 judets have an average value of -61, which is also much below the national mean.
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PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
SOUTH DEVELOPMENT REGION General outline The region is formed by a cluster of 7 judets. Five of them - Giurgiu, Calarasi, Ialomita, Prahova and Dambovita are direct neighbors to the capital city of Bucuresti and two others - Arges and Teleorman - even if not direct neighbours of the country’s capital are close to it. Geographically the region is subdivided into a plain subregion and a hilly one. The judets that are in the South part - Teleorman, Giurgiu, Calarasi and Ialomita - are located in the Central Romanian Plain and are bordered by Danube river. The basic fact about the location of this region is that is peripherally located to Bucuresti and divided between a South plain subregion and a North hilly subregion. The whole South development region is included into the historical region of Muntenia. Only two judets of Muntenia - Braila and Buzau - are out of this development region. The South regionis clearly divided into two subregions - the North one formed by Arges, Dambovita and Prahova and the South one comprising Teleorman, Ialomita, Giurgiu and Calarasi. The hilly North is richer than plain South. The South subregion is attracted by Bucharest more than the North subregion. In spite of this break of development , the two subregions could function as a development or project region. Their geographic location and the communication network are the key factors favoring this potential for regional actions of development. Complementary economies of industrial type in the North and of agricultural type in the South are offering also opportunities for regional cooperation among judets. The common image that the North is developed and the South is less developed should be considered carefully in this case. The dynamics of transition could change rapidly the situation. Industrial decline started to be a problem especially in Prahova judet. The potential for cooperation and common actions of development are especially high for the plain poor communes that are located at the border between North and South subregions. Regional policy in the South macroregion would have to cope mainly with agricultural and rural poverty, industrial decline, infrastructure and unbalanced development of urban network of setlements. Demography About 16% of the country population lives in the South region. The 3.5 million people of the region are distributed into 524 localities out of which 43 are cities. The whole population living in Teleorman, Girgiu, Ialomita and Calarasi is located in plain areas. The Northern subregion formed by Prahova, Dambovita and Arges has about half of its population in hilly areas and another half in plain environment. It means that the North subregion is only partially located in hilly and mountain areas.
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Urban concentration is much higher in hilly than in plain judets: the percentage of urban population in large cities of more than 100000 inhabitants is of 46 in the first case and 0 in the second. Pitesti and Ploiesti are the only large cities in the region. The urban network of the region is highly unbalanced not only due to the distribution of large cities but also due to the presence of Bucuresti. The poor urbanisation of the plain subregion is contrasting not only with the higher urbanisation of the hilly subregion but also with the proximity to the large urban concentration of Bucuresti. The mean size of the communes of the region is of 4269 persons, 12% higher than the national average. Generally, at the country level, plain communes are larger in terms of population than hilly or mountains communes. For the South region the geographic location of the commune is less important than the subregion location. North is richer than South. Consequently, out-migration was, for decades, higher from South than from North communes. The demographic outcome is that communes in the North (even if located in hilly areas to a considerable degree) are larger than communes in the South (4524 persons per commune in the first case Vs 3982 communes in the second case, in 1995)19. The differential migration, higher from South than from North subregion, is the most relevant factor for the difference in human capital between the two subregions: education, health and communication stocks are much higher for North than for South judets. Economy The four judets of the plain subregion are the only ones in the country having more than 90% of the agricultural area used as arable. As a result, here is the highest concentration of agricultural population (57% of the total employment of the subregion). The geographical contrast between the hilly North and the plain South is doubled by the economic one between the industrial occupation in the first case compared to the agricultural one in the second. The employment in industry was of 38% in the North compared to 16% in the South. The North subregion is one of the most industrialised in the country20. The labour dynamics of the region was also differentiated by subregions. Employment had a sharper decline in the poor-agricultural21 than in the richerindustrialised subregion. As the unemployment is the same in the two subregions, it results that, very likely, a large segment of the newly unemployed from the South have been absorbed by the hidden unemployment in agriculture.
19
The North South difference of the commune size is valide even for localities of the same geographic location: plain communes in the North have on the average 4959 people compared to 3974 people in the South. 20 Brasov -Sibiu is the only subregion in the country having a larger industrial employment. The subregion formed by Hunedoara and Caras-Severin had the same industrial employment in 1995. 21 The subregions that had the largest decline of employment between 1990-1995 have been Teleorman-Giurgiu-Calarasi-Ialomita, Botosani-Vaslui and Olt-Mehedinti. Starting with 1997, with a new pattern in the economic reform, the process will get, very likely, new regional speeds.
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Infrastructure The density of the communication infrastructure in the region , roads and railways, is very close to the national average. The key European and national roads are directed to Bucuresti. The connection between Bucuresti and all the large surrounding cities (Pitesti, Ploiesti, Craiova, Constanta, Braila and Galati) is made by railways and important roads. The gap between North and South subregions is once again present as for the density of public roads with a much better situation in the North compared to the South. A pilot study made for Teleorman judet showed clearly the fact that the poorest communes are located far from the main roads and railways stations. On the contrary, communes in proximity of the main roads, as for example those beween Rosiori de Vede and Alexandria, are quite well of.
Living Standard Infant mortality rate is among the highest in the country in the plain subregions of the South macroregion.The causes are related to the poor health infrastructure and to the low level of education of the population. The four judets of the plain subregion have the lowest stock of education in the country. Material capital at the household level measured by the number of private cars to 1000 inhabitants is the lowest one in Teleorman, Calarsi and Ialomita. A key indicator of the level of living is communication potential of the households. A greater number of telephone subscriptions, TV sets and post letters sent by regular mail by people from the judets is a sign of a greate potential of communication. From this point of view, 6 of the 7 judets of the region are in a bad situation. On an index of communication potential, with a variation between To different degrees, the poor communes from the South region are in this situation due to the long term functioning of a kind of vicious circle: population of low developemnt potential -à low income -à out-migration to Bucuresti-à low development potential of the population. The context favoring the functionning of this vicious circle is given by poor infrastructure, dominant agricultural economy in the south, poor urban network of setlements and proximity to Bucuresti.
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Selective out-migration of youth and educated people to Bucharest
Population of low development potential
Low income, poverty
Poor infrastructure Dominant agricultural economy Unbalanced urban setlement network Proximity to Bucharest
Fig. The vicious circle of poverty in the plain communes of the South region .
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SOUTH-WEST DEVELOPMENT REGION General outline The region is formed by all the five judets of the historical region on Oltenia Dolj, Gorj,Mehedinti, Olt and Mehedinti. It is situated between Carpathians mountains and Danube in the South-West part of the country. Yugoslavia and Bulgaria are its South neighbors. Location and natural resources are favorable conditions for a high potential of development of the region. The area of the region is of 29200 km2. In the Northern part of the region, the mountain area (Parang, Retezat-Godenu) is covered by alpine meadows and forests and is characterised by hydroenergetic resources and tourist potential.. The central part of the region is a hilly one (about 50% of the total area of the region) formed by Sub-Carpathians and Getic Plateau. The economic profile of this subregion is given by vineyard, fruit tree, light coal, oil and natural gas. The Southern part is plain area with crop cultures. The total population of the region is of about 2.4 millions. The highest density of the population is along the river valleys of Jiu, Olt and their tributaries. For a long period, this region was a reservoir of labor for other regions, for Bucharest and Banat, especially. As an outcome of lasting long distance out-migration, the region has a high degree of population ageing, especially in its South-West part and in isolated rural areas. A demographic revival of the central part of the region started about three decades ago with the occasion of starting the exploitation of lignite and the construction of some of the greatest hydroelectric plants. Rural-to-urban commuting contributed, especially during the 1980s to a certain decline of outmigration. Human settlement system is formed of 2088 villages, grouped in 392 communes and 32 cities. Craiova with a population of more than 310000 inhabitants is the main urban centre with an important set of social, economic and cultural functions for the whole region. The second urban level formed of cities of about 100000 inhabitants is formed by Drobeta-Turnu Severin, Targu Jiu and Ramnicu Valcea. All of them are capital cities for judets. The urban system of the judets in the region is quite unbalanced. In Dolj department, for example, the ratio between the greatest city of Craiova and the second one in hierarchy is of 15/1. Opening of mining activities in the region was accompanied in a significant number of cases by relocation of villages. Considering the resources the region has, its economy might be characterised by its rural trait in the most part of the territory, character on which the point-like character of the processing industry in the big and medium-size urban centres is built. An important trait, on the whole region level is the energetic dominant of the economy, defined on the one hand by the exploitation of coal and oil resources, and on the other hand by the presence of the biggest hydro-electrical plants in the country. In order to emphasise the importance of this region in national energy, we remind of the power produced in thermo-centrals, which comes near 6.000 MW ( Turceni- 2.600 MW, Rovinari- 1.900, Isalnita-1.000, Drobeta-Turnu Severin-300), and hydro-centrals 17
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
(Portile de Fier-1.050 MW, Lotru-510 MW, Portile de Fier II-350 MW, Tismana100MW). The major infrastructure is made up of three important magistrals: one represented by the Bucuresti-Craiova-Timisoara rail-road of international importance, the second- the E94 international road ( in the north-east, in a small section, the region is crossed by E15A), and the third being the Danube, along which there can be developed specific infrastructures, linked to harbour-activities or trans-Danubian transit. This last aspect has an overwhelming importance for the perspective of building a direct link between Central and West Europe and South East Europe, and then with Near and Middle Orient. That's why the option for a future bridge over Danube will have implications on the future development of the entire South region. Demography The demographic analysis of the intra-regional differences by using the four selected indexes leads, per total, to individualising two different sub-regions: one made up of Dolj and Mehedinti judets, and the other made up of the other three judets. So, regarding the population ageing degree , we notice that the first subregion stands out by its 14% population over 65 years old. In the other sub-group, the values are slightly diminished for Valcea and Olt judets, but far more diminished, under the country media for Gorj judet (11%). This might be explained by the large weight of young and adult population, which characterises the demographic structure of Gorj judet, considering its dominant mining profile. The resulting differences from the weight of primary-school graduates, are greatly influenced by the global effects of the existence of a city ( the inexistence of such a city and the domination of agricultural activities determines the highest values in Olt judet-34%), but also by the specific economy of the judet ( Gorj judet, known by its force of attraction on the population from other areas, including the neighbouring judets, has the lowest values-25%; the population working in the mining field, should have had at least 8 years of education.)The variation gap of the urbanisation degree is relatively low, but we must add the fact that neither of the component judets exceeds the country media. The highest level of urbanisation is present in Dolj judet (50%) and Mehedinti judet (49%), as a result of the high weight of judet capitals ( Craiova and Drobeta-Turnu Severin). All the other judets have similar values, oscillating between 40 (Olt) and 43 (Gorj). An analysis through the angle of the urban networks, reveals the fact that Valcea and Gorj have a greater number of towns ( 8 and 7, compared to 5 in the case of the most powerfully urbanized) , theoretically having a better situation under the aspect of urban influence areas.
Economy The indirect analysis of the economical aspects by using indexes regarding the labour-force structure, reveals some differences, which are mainly dependent on the specific mining-energetic profile of Gorj judet. For example, regarding the population participation rate at the economical activities is 335‰ in Gorj judet and only 209‰ in 18
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Olt judet. On the first hand, this means the existence of more jobs, and on the other hand, a higher weight of active persons , including the ones that came exclusively for mining jobs. Somewhat higher values are noticed in Valcea judet, where mining activities have an important weight, but where there are other economical activities ( industrial, hydroenergetic and forest exploitation) which impose a higher degree of economic participation. The dynamics of economical activities participation during 1990-1995 has been localised around the national media, slightly higher. So, if the employees' number decreased by 24% at national level in that time interval, in the southwest region it decreased by 27%. The most drastically percent decrease is found in Dolj judet (35%) , as a result of restricting the industrial activity in the car building and chemical industry branch. In this respect, some sections of big enterprises in Craiova , built in small or middle towns (Filiasi, Bailesti, Calafat) or in some rural localities (Plenita) have been closed or limited to only some activities. The effects could have been noticed in the rapid decrease of the employees number in the case of these sections ( during 1990-1994 the employees number decreased by 66,4%-Calafat, 56.2%Bailesti, 36.4-Segarcea, a.s.o.)The great Craiova enterprises, mainly specialized in machine construction, have drastically reduced the employees' number, which explains the decrease at city level with more than 28% ( during 1990-1994). The employees weight in industry shows an almost double value for Gorj (37%), compared to Dolj, Olt and Mehedinti, each of them having only 1/5 out of the total employees number included in this branch. Valcea judet has an intermediary weight with the almost 26% of the industry employees. It is to be noticed that the industry in Valcea judet benefited of foreign investments, and the chemical industry, specialized in insecticides and anti-damages hasn't been suffering from such a dramatically decrease as in chemical fertilizers industry. The unemployment rate has been oscillating during the last years, with important variations from a year to another. In 1995, the most reduced unemployment was measured in Gorj (4%), both at region and country level, due to the subvention it benefited from the mining activity. The highest values were noticed in Valcea judet, in spite of the important weight the mining has here. The disponibilisations, especially in the industry localized in different centers of the judet ( especially Dragasani and Ramnicu-Valcea) have determined the increase of the unemployment-rate. Similar values were registered in Dolj judet, where the decrease of the employees' number continued in the great industrial giants in Craiova. The recent disponibilisations, applied as a result of the stimulating measures for the acceleration of the restructuration process, sum together almost 15.000 persons, from which 80% reside in Gorj and the neighboring judets, and 20% belong to judets situated at much larger distances. From this last category stand out the judet in Moldavia (Iasi, Neamt, Vaslui, Botosani) and the ones in the north of the country. ( Maramures, Bistrita-Nasaud). Infrastructure The values measured by the used indexes in order to evaluate the infrastructure are dependent on more factors, among which stand out the relief 19
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
accessibility degree, the general configuration of the settlements' system and number of localities, the economical centers' distribution, the localization of the region relatively to the traffic magistrals of national and international interest, the families' economical power and the existing stock of dwellings. One of the indexes with the highest variation is the one of the density of rail-roads, density which oscillates between 26km/1000sqkm ( Mehedinti judet) and 42km/1000sqkm (Gorj and Olt). The maximum values are reached in the two judets for different reasons: for Gorj judet, the rail-road network expanded as a result of including new areals among the coal exploitation ones in the last three decades( Filiasi-Rovinari-Targu Jiu; TurceniDragotesti; Targu Carbunesti-Albeni rail-roads ); in Olt judet situation, the high density is given by its localization of three main rail-roads ( Pitesti-Craiova; Rosiori de Vede-Craiova, both of them intersected by the Corabia-Caracal-Piatra Olt- Ramnicu Valcea rail-road). The other judets have similar values, going from 26 to 30 km/1000sqkm. Regarding the public road density, the values are much more similar, a slight discordance being registered in Dolj judet, with a much lower density (29km/100sqkm). This is mainly because of the reduced density of localities compared to the other judets ( 51 localities/1000sqkm, compared to other judets which surpass the 70 value, and for Valcea judet, 100). As a matter of fact, for the assemble of the four judets, the road density value is placed between 34 and 38 km/100sqkm. A somewhat higher differences is registered regarding the modernized roads, which oscillate between 18% (Olt judet) and 32% (Gorj judet). The maximum value is due to the road modernization to and from the coal and oil exploitation areas towards the thermoelectrical centrals, the load ramps or the collection centers. The judet distribution of the two indexes reflecting the medium size of dwellings and the medium living floor area per person does not reveal essential differences. In the first indicator case the somewhat lower values measured for Gorj and Valcea are relevant for a kind of pressure from the population which came from other country areas and works in mining. Living standards Regarding the life standard, the differences between the two similarity subregions are more obvious, for all the analyzed indexes. So, obviously, the life standard for Mehedinti and Olt is lower than the standard for the other three judets. One of the most important indexes is infant mortality, which exceeds 25‰ in this subregion, while the other subregion benefits from a better medical support ( like in the case of Dolj judet, where Craiova stands out, or the case of the other judets where the medical support for miners was a little better). At inter-judet level, the discrepancies are essential: the Mehedinti judet has a 27‰ infant mortality and Valcea judet, only 16‰. The long-distance out-migration imposes two judets, by their very low values: Dolj, due to the attraction effect Craiova exercises and Gorj judet, due to the mining activities which constituted an attraction element for labor force in the analyzed period. The private car number per 1000 inhabitants is much more differentiated per judets, having higher values for judets with a higher urbanization level ( Dolj and 20
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Mehedinti) and which are at the same time boundary judets. A good correlation with the urbanization degree is also present in the case of telephone subscription number per 1000 inhabitants, which has the highest levels for the same judets. Conclusions The important problems in intra-regional development of this area will certainly be the ones correlated with the implications of perspective decrease of the mining and energetic activities. This process will set free a high volume of labor force, which will have to be involved in other spheres of production activities. It is possible that some social tension will increase, building on a general low development level. The poor infrastructure and most of all, the great covering of spaces without access to rail-road or a modernized road can constitute elements which, given the proper attention, can contribute to lowering the obvious intra-regional discrepancies. Complex and complicated problems could be the ones of reintegration in economical circuit of spaces , which sums up thousands of hectares, affected by the surface exploitation of lignite. These altered not only some of the basis components like water and soil, but also the landscape in general, accentuating the village depopulation processes. The favorable geographical position in report to natural elements of major interest, like Danube, the real possibilities of trans-boundary cooperation, and also the agricultural resources this space has, can constitute advantages in economical revitalizing, surpassing the crisis period generated by mining activities restructuration.
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WEST DEVELOPMENT REGION The “West” Region of Romania, formed by the association of four judets: Arad, Timis, Hunedoara and Caras-Severin, is based on cultural identity, with obvious influences from its German population, and on complementary resources, that represent a groundwork for co-operation. The region’s geographical position individualises it and, moreover, provides opportunities for cross-border co-operation, too. General outline The natural background is dominated by highlands and lowlands - with the whole range of variegated and specific elements almost equally divided. There are few hills, so that the mountain often edges the plain. The relatively sudden transition from one natural unit to the other, usually divided by a large intermediary area, proves to be an asset for communication and co-operation of distinct zones that have complementary resources. The total population of the West Region numbers 2.2 million people. Densities of about 67 inhabit./sq. km, place it far behind other macro-regions of Romania. All its judets list below the national average value of 96 inhabit./sq. km: Timis (81 inhabit./sq. km), Hunedoara (75 inhabit./sq. km), Arad (67 inhabit./sq. km), and Caras-Severin (46 inhabit./sq. km). Looking at the geographical conditions of these judets, it seems unrealistical to judge them by the population density criterion. Paradoxically, Hunedoara’s lower settlement potential (over 80% mountains, 20% high mountain zone; 55% woodland and alpine pasture land) places it ahead of Arad judet. The fact is that it has massive concentrations of population in depressions and valley corridors, Hunedoara being one of the highest urbanised judets of Romania. The main demographic indicators are notably influenced by the one-child family pattern customary in Banat, which makes the overall natural increase record negative. However, demographic behaviour has been optimised by the influx of a young labour force coming from other regions, especially from the north-east, where the largefamily pattern is the rule. Hunedoara judet, dominated by the mining sector, improved its natural demographic indicators in the way shown above and also by the great many newcomers from the coal basin of Petrosani (the Jiu Valley), in particular.
The settlement system. There are 1,338 villages grouped into 269 communes, 36 towns of which only two have over 100,000 inhabitants, and notable density disparities between the Banat proper and Hunedoara judet attached to the region. In Hunedoara, village density is 65/1,000 sq. km, while the other three judets score nearly half that percentage (Caras-Severin - 34; Arad - 36; Timis - 37). The same goes for the average number of villages/commune: from 8 in Hunedoara to 4.1 in
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Arad, and 4.2 in Timis and Caras-Severin each. Hence, distinct problems of infrastructure and ways of access to it. Settlements in the plain are usually large -sized, while in the mountains they are small and medium - sized. These disparities are reinforced at judet level. With its 661 inhabit./village Caras-Severin is transitional from Hunedoara (309 inhabit./village) to Arad and Timis judets (914 and 1,006 inhabit./village, respectively). Although the living standard in the region’s countryside is fairly elevated, nontheless depopulation is a reality. Before 1989, it was the attraction of the city, after that date it was the migration in mass of the German ethnics. However, a few lowland villages, with a population of over 10,000 inhabitants (Pecica - 12,000; Sântana - 13,000) are the largest in Romania. The urban system has a fairly good structure at the upper ranks of the hierarchy, but very disproportionate in the territory. Prominent is Timisoara city with nearly 350,000 inhabitants, next in line standing Arad (ca 200,000 inhabit.) and Resita with a population of 100,000. Although there are lots of towns (and their number seems to be sufficient) with a population of 20,000 - 100,000 they are very unevenly spread. Of the eleven towns in this group, Hunedoara judet alone numbers eight of them. Disproportion is particularly strinking in Arad judet, where the 15/1 ratio between the capital and the second-ranking town is suggestive of extreme oversizing. Unlike in Hunedoara, where small towns represent but 38% of the total, this urban category is very numerous in Arad (86%), Timis (715) and Caras-Severin even (62%). The economy is distinctively different, but complementary. The fact that there is a certain symmetry of dominant economies is due to a specialised industry, based on almost similar subsoil resources. Looking at the similarity of the economy of Caras-Severin and Hunedoara judets, on the one hand, and of Arad and Timis, on the other, the idea emerged of a joint co-operation in using their complementary resources. In Caras-Severin and Hunedoara there is coke, ferrous and non-ferrous ores, so extractive and metallurgical industries developed in both judets. Despite a twohundred-year long tradition, today they stand restructuring. The large forest stock only partially put to use, is another important resource. Part of the wood is processed in the big manufacturing units of Caransebes, or in the small and medium-large enterprises of either judet. Some of it goes to the big processing units in Arad and Timis. The very diverse mountainous landscapes, the host of natural tourist sites, the opportunities for practising specific sports, and the recreational advantages of a highland environment represent an important economic asset that has good prospects of future development. The economy of Arad and Timis judets is far more complex. There is a wider range of processing industries, including also agricultural products. The two prominent cities - Timisoara and Arad, have a wide-ranging industrial profile (machine-building, light industry and chemical industries in the main). Agriculture is an efficient sector with highly productive lands, and a lively animal breeding sector. The connex industries processing agricultural products have good prospects for development. The 23
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two judets have a nation-wide fame for swineherding in particular, with very high pork meat productions and processing capacities. Major infrastructure. There are two transnational corridors: the national highways (E15A and E94), and two electric railways that link Romania to Central and Western Europe. The traffic is highest through the Mures Corridor, which is also a transcontinental transit route used especially by trailers from Central and Western Europe heading to the SE of the Continent and the Near East. The environment is deteriorated in places by the high polluting industries. Frequently located in depressions or valley corridors, they have detrimental effects on the near-by human agglomerations. Highest pollution levels are registered in Petrosani Basin, where beside industrial activities there is much household consumption of coal; in Hunedoara-Deva (from the siderurgical works in Hunedoara, the thermo-electrical power station at Mintia, the building material manufacturing unit at Chiscadaga); in the depression of Resita (centre of the siderurgical industry). In addition, there is surface pollution from chemical fertilisers and from the large animal farms located in the Timis and in the Mures Plains. Demography From a demographic viewpoint, the “West” Region features by a negative natural increase, positive migration (at national level) and the exodus of the German population. Regional development is revealed by four indicators: population over 65 years old/total population (%); elementary instruction - four grades (%); level of urbanisation, town population over 100,000 persons/urban population total (%). The first indicator reveals net judet differences in the ageing of the population compared to the national average values. Above the national average stands Arad judet (14%), Timis and Caras-Severin equal the national average, while Hunedoara lists below this threshold. Important demographic mutations had taken place before 1989. In the judets of the historical Banat zone, the population aged over 65 registered decreases due to the emigration of German ethnics over that age (their younger co-nationals had illegally left before). A part of the recently retired population returned to their places of origin, their dwellings being occupied by the young families. The low proportion of elderly (over 65) in Hunedoara judet comes from the fact that much of the workforce in mining and metallurgy kept being revigorated by the influx of young people from different zones of the country. Looking at the situation at sub-regional levels (the region is divided into two sub-regions, one grouping Arad and Timis, and the other Hunedoara and CarasSeverin judets) does not offer much relevance. However, the degree of ageing appears to be 2% higher in the plain than in the mountain zone. The second indicator bespeaks the general level of instruction in terms of the proportion of the four-grade population/total population with a 12-year schooling term. Although the sub-regional score is identical (ca 24%), distinctive differences emerge at judet level. The best urbanised judets: Timis and Hunedoara situated in different sub-regions have the lowest elementary-grade population, most of it is registered in Arad and Caras-Severin (28% and 27%, respectively) where there is a great number
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of villages and small towns, a very numerous elderly population, and a lot of areas isolated from the urban networks. The urbanisation level of the region as a whole is above the national average, with ordinary disparities among judets, just like in the preceding case. The same group of judets - Arad and Caras-Severin - have a poor record (52% and 57%, respectively), in contradistinction to Timis and Hunedoara (62% and 76%, respectively). Differences correlate well with the degree of urban concentration. It is but normal that Timisoara with its ca 350,000 (over 77% of the urban population) should be the first to meet this criterion, while in Hunedoara, it is the number of towns and not a single city that are important. In the latter judet, there are two big urban concentrations: one in the centre-north - Deva-Hunedoara (with more than 200,000 inhabitants), the other in the south, in the Jiu Valley, gravitating around the town of Petrosani (ca 150,000 inhabit.).
At sub-regional level, the two judets appear to be better urbanised, towns being concentrated in depressionary areas (about 68%). In the lowlands, this indicator is down by nearly 10 per cent. In this category of judets, it is the judet-seat that has the highest weight, it becoming oversized as against the other towns and the urban network as a whole. So, with 75% and 77%, respectively, the cities of Arad and Timisoara concentrate over l of the urban population of their respective judets. Economy The economic development of each judet was assessed by means of four indicators established in a unitary manner for each judet. Disparities at this level became obvious. The indicators used are: rate of participation in economic activities (salaried people to 1,000 inhabit.); dynamics of participation (salaried people 1995/salaried people 1990); employees in industry (%), employees in agriculture (%) and unemployment. Participation of the population in economic activities gives priority to Hunedoara judet (355‰), Caras-Severin listing at the bottom (260‰). The high proportion of employees in the first judet correlates with the dominantly industrial profile that has drawn in the majority active population. In the other judet, the largest part of the population works in agriculture or is engaged in household activities. The Arad and Timis record stands above the national average, due to the high share of industry and services, determinant elements for this indicator. Unlike in the first two judets, state farms are very numerous and they use paid labour. The dynamic of the participative indicator reveals a drastic overall decrease, with variations at judet level. Fewest job losses registered Hunedoara and Arad (ca 19%), Caras-Severin lost 34% of its workforce, and Timis only 25%. These distinctive situations are due to structure of these judets’ economies and to state assistance granted selectively to siderurgical and, especially, to mining units. For example, the mining industry of the Jiu Valley in particular enjoyed the greatest support from the state, the metallurgical or machine-building industries were not subjected to massive restructuring which is inherently associated with job losses. In Caras-Severin, mining declined as some exploitations of bituminous shales and non-ferrous metals were 25
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
closed down; in the coal-mining sector, the workforce dropped dramatically, the same in the machine-building units from Resita, Bocsa and Caransebes, and the siderurgical works from Otelu Rosu. Surprisingly, Arad judet declined at a relatively slower pace (19%). The reason for it would be the strong industrial concentration in Arad city, the reduced percentage of lay offs by the closure of only some of its sections based in the towns of Lipova, Chisineu-Cris, Ineu, Sebis, etc. and the revigoration of some machine-building enterprises (e.g. train carriage manufactures). Much the same happened in Timis judet. Besides, both judets benefited from foreign investments, even though these were fairly modest. There is no significant percentage variation between the population working in industry and in agriculture. The highest proportion of industrial workers registers Hunedoara (44%), more than twice the numbers in agriculture. The situation at this indicator is very much the same in Arad judet, but here the proportion is reversed, with 11% more people employed in the secondary sector (34% to 23%). Very close indexes register Timis and Caras-Severin, the gap being of 5% in both judets. Insofar as unemployment is concerned, this indicator is not very relevant for the state of an economy. For example, in Timis and Arad the unemployment rate is of 4% and 5%, respectively, while in Caras-Severin and Hunedoara it is two and even three times higher (10% and 12%, respectively). Subsequently, this difference has been maintained, but at in different proportions. Infrastructure Existing disparities at judet level, in particular are the consequence of the diverse natural conditions, specific distributions of settlement networks, historical developments, and shightly different cultural models. Widest territorial gaps are notable in the density of railroads, e.g. with 90 km/1,000sq. km, Timis tops the table at national level; Caras-Severin and Hunedoara, with their dominantly mountain zone, barely reach half that value. Arad with 63 km/1,000 sq. km holds an intermediary position, yet high above the national average (48 km/1,000 sq. km). The density of public roads is not that different, i.e. 33 km/100 sq. km (Timis) and 22 km/100 sq. km (Caras-Severin); the same density (27 km/100 sq. km) in both Arad and Hunedoara judets, despite widely varied natural conditions, which more restrictive are in the second judet. The equal values of the last two judets is due to the number of settlements of Hunedoara, which is twice that of in Arad. The proportion of modernised roads is higher in the mountain judets (37% in Caras-Severin, and 32% in Hunedoara), because long segments of their territory is covered by national highways, and connecting the numerous settlements of the depressionary zones located close to these highways, it was necessary to upgrade small sections of their roads. There are few modern roads in the two lowland judets (Timis - 21%, and Arad - 24%), because settlements spread over vast areas, and there are fewer national highways. Housing indicators reveal sub-regional disparities. The average dwelling area in the mountain zone is of 33 sq. m in Hunedoara and of 36 sq. m in Caras-Severin. The 26
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
same for the dwelling surface/per capita (Hunedoara - 11 sq. m; Caras-Severin - 13 sq. m). Much more dwelling space have Arad and Timis, left in the wake of the departing German population. Average values range between 39 and 38 sq. m/dwelling place, respectively and ca 14 sq. m/per capita in either judet. Living standard The indicators used and assumed to be relevant for appraising living standards, reveal some notable disparities among the macro-region’s judets. All in all, living standards appear to be very high compared to national average values. Infant mortality over the years 1993-1995 (for which data are available) shows Arad judet to hold a privileged position with minimum levels in Romania (17%). Timis (21%) and Caras-Severin (22%) rank slightly below the national average of 23%, while Hunedoara stands high above it (26%). That the same cultural background and demographic behaviour breeds inter-judet variations is due to the mining-metallurgical industry dominant in Hunedoara judet, where large numbers of young people from other provinces of Romania (Moldavia, in particular), with distinct demographic behaviour, came to work. Also natality indexes here are well above the other judets’ record. An interesting, but indirect, living standard indicator is remote outmigration. Far below the national average lists Timis (4‰), close to that value comes Arad - 7‰, and doubling it are Caras-Severin - 9‰ and Hunedoara - 10‰. The high score of the last two judets results from the return to the places of origin (to Moldavia, in particular) of the population employed for many years in the mining sector. On the other hand, Timis and Arad had been a focal attraction for the population of Romania’s poorest regions. Hence, distinctive differences between the two subregions, higher indexes being recorded where mining and metallurgical activities are dominant. Another indirect indicator - the number of cars/1,000 inhabitants, a reflection of the population’s revenues, also registers significant variations. With 136 cars/1,000 inhabitants, Timis lists above the national average, the other judets approaching it. Arad and Caras-Severin top this average by 10% and 5%, respectively, Hunedoara listing last. It is not because the population of the first two judets has exceptional incomes, but rather because of spending habits. While in the first three judets it is typical for people to spend their money on household and durable goods, the large mining population of the last judet prefers to spend its high revenues on daily alcohol consumption. Looking at the number of telephone subscriptions/1,000 inhabitants, one finds that lowland judets list ahead of the highland ones, and of the national average (129), too. Mountain judets stand far below it. This would indicate that the population of Arad and Timis (146 and 137 /1,000 inhabit.) has a higher living standard and that people realise the utility of rapid communication means (there is a majority of large settlements, rural ones included). Caras-Severin and Hunedoara have a poorer record at this indicator, because on the one hand most rural settlements are small, and moreover neither judet has a big city with over 200,000 inhabitants (in which the average number of telephone subscriptions is high); on the other hand, the rate of the 27
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
workforce renewal in the mining sector is high, and the incoming families, intending to work for “a few years” only, are not interested in having their own telephone sets. Conclusions The “West” Region is one of the best developed territories in Romania. It is a fairly complex multicultural space, has lots of varied natural resources and a favourable geographical position for cross-border co-operation. There is a marked distinction between the lowland and the highland judets, the former have a complex economic structure, with concentrations of population in one large city, and a higher living standard. The economy of the latter is focused on mining and metallurgy, on connected and complementary branches. The lowland countryside has been revitalised by a new Land Law that provides for the reinstatement of private property in agriculture. This helped farmers increase their revenues, develop local services and intensify the village/town relationship. As the big urban industry in Timis and Arad judets undergoes restructuring, the number of commuters dropped to 1/7, people returning to work in their places of origin, where the development of small and medium-large manufactures absorbed many of the layoffs. The restructuring of the mining and metallurgical sectors in Hunedoara and Caras-Severin judets has a significant impact on each settlement, because there are very few chances for people to find a job at local level. Many requested to be laid off and they would go back to where they had come from. However, this drain of young labour force may pose serious long-term development problems to these judets. NORTH-WEST DEVELOPMENT REGION This Region includes 6 judets: Maramures, Salaj, Cluj, Bistrita-Nasaud, Bihor and Satu-Mare that are interrelated from the point of view of natural resources and labour. The landscape of the North-West region is dominated by hills and low mountains; there are, as well, few plains. For 1996 there are valid the next characteristics of the region. Population and labour force The total population of the region is more than 2.9 million inhabitants or 13% of the total population of the country. Aged population represents 11% of total, 1% less than the national average. Population of 12 years old and more having only primary education was 26% from total, in 1992. This figure is less than the national average (28%). Urban population represents 52% of total. The average participation rate22 is 255 in this region, lower than the national average (272). In the period 1995-1990 the participation rate decreased with 25% due to the fact that same of the employed persons left industry for agriculture but they are not registered as employees; in agriculture employment rate is 37%.
22
Salaried persons to 1000 inhabitants.
28
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Unemployment rate for the region was 9% in the first semester of 1997 and there are premises for increase due to the restructuring programme of the government. From the point of view of the global development index the North-West region is divided in two parts: judets Cluj and Bihor registered higher values (60) while the rest of judet (Maramures, Satu Mare, Salaj and Bistrita-Nasaud) registered lower values (49) (see Annex). Economy The economy of the region is dominated by agriculture and industry with a share of 68% of the GDP; services represents 32%. Main agriculture activities are those that could be performed in hilly areas: vegetables, corn, potatoes, grapes and wines, fruits, berries, etc. There are important livestock as cows, ships, horses, pigs etc. In general, agricultural activities in mountain areas are carried out in a traditional manner. Areas occupied by forests are oscillating between 28% to 32% in the six judets included in the region. The main species are the: coniferous, beech, oak, tisa etc. In the North-West region the amount of timber harvested in 1995 was 1680 thousand cubic meter or 12% of the total amount harvested in Romania. The region is endowed with natural resources as non ferrous metals (silver, gold, copper, zinc etc.), various construction materials etc. Industry is concentrated in the main urban areas of the region Cluj Napoca, Baia Mare, Oradea, Satu Mare, Zalau. Industrial output of the region is divers and usually there are used local raw material. There are developed hard industries such as: mining industry23, ferrous and non ferrous metallurgy, machine and equipment and light industry such as: food processing (dairy products, wine, soft drinks, meet etc.), clothing, wood processing. Services are more developed in bigger cities where is a consistent demand and less in rural areas. We have to add that Cluj Napoca is considered as the most important cultural centre of Transilvania; here are located important universities24, theatres, opera etc. Destination of the industrial output is the internal market as well as external markets. The judets Bihor and Satu Mare, located near the Hungarian border, there are more complex commercial links with Hungary. Infrastructure Infrastructure existing in the North-West region is close to the national average. There are some variance at indicators regarding railways density which is 53/sqkm in the North-West region and the national average is 48/sqkm. Density of public roads is
23
In Baia Mare is one of the biggest exploitation and processing of non ferrous metals. We have to mention Babes - Bolyay University were the educational process is carried out in three languages: Romanian, Hungarian and German. 24
29
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
the same as the national average but there are some isolated areas in Apuseni Mountains and in Maramures judet where roads are poor. Living space floor is, on average, 30 m2 for a house and 12 m2 for a person. Both value are near to the national average (see Annex). Telecommunication infrastructure is not well developed. If we take into account only the telephone subscripion we find out an average of 120/1000 inhabitant. We have to add that the national average is 129/1000 inhabitant and the highest value is in Bucuresti region (290/1000 inhabitants).
CENTRAL DEVELOPMENT REGION The Central Region covers the central and southern parts of Transylvania, much of the Transylvanian Depression and the adjacent mountainous zones. The main rivers crossing it are the Mures and theOlt, which gather their tributaries mainly from the eastern, western and southers slopes. The region was created by bringing together six judets (Alba, Brasov, Covasna, Harghita, Mures and Sibiu) that have complementary resources, but are distinctively different in point of population number and level of economic development. The majority socio-economic indicators used in this survey point out two individual groupings: one formed of the counties from the southern half of the region (Brasov and Sibiu), the other englobing its north-eastern half (Alba, Mures, Harghita and Covasna). General outline The Central Region is a mountainous and high-hilly zone. All constituent judets, except for the south-eastern ones (Covasna) englobe, beside the mountainous zone also variable portions of the hilly Depression of Transylvania. Two judets alone Harghita (with only 1/10 tableland area on its territory) and Covasna, extend almost exclusively in the mountain zone of the Eastern Carpathians. An almost similar position holds Brasov judet. As a matter of fact, the population of the three judets is concentrated largely in the intra-Carpathian depressions. The population of the Central Region numbers over 2.7 million people, with densities of ca 79 inhabit/sq.km, which is far from the national average. Densities vary with the judet, Brasov having the highest record (ca 115 inhab./sq.km), with more than twice the value of Harghita and Covasna (50.5 and 56.0 inhabit/sq.km, respectively), Mures and Sibiu come close to the national average (91.0 inhabit/sq.km.), while Alba reaches a barely 70 inhabit/sq.km. The main demographic indicators reveal a certain disparity between the eastern part (Covasna and Harghita) with higher natality indexes and much higher natural increases than the judets of Sibiu, Brasov and Alba. Settlements (1,828 villages grouped into 338 communes, and 48 towns, three of which with over 100,000 inhabitants) are also very unevenly distributed. Looking at village densities (village/1,000 sq.km), we find that Alba (106), for example, is three times ahead of Brasov (28). With the exception of Alba and Mures (73 villages/1,000 30
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
sq.km), all the other judets (Sibiu, 32; Covasna, 33 and Harghita, 36) line below the national average of 55 villages/1,000 sq.km. The record of the whole region is slightly below the national average. In the mountain area of Alba county, in particular the population is scattered into small settlements (some communes englobing over 30 villages: Vidra, 39; Bistra, 38; Avram Iancu, 33, and Bucium, 30). This situation raises huge problems of infrastructure and social endowment. With an average population/village of under 350 inhabitants, Alba registers less than half, or one-third even the population of other counties of the region, e.g. Harghita - 822; Covasna - 860; Brasov - 1,155; Sibiu 1,073. Below the median line falls Mures, with an average of 66b inhabitants/village. The urban network is relatively extended, one town focusing an influence zone of some 709 sq.km, on the average. But subtracting the compact and massive forest expanses, what remains is 461,461 sq.km. In reality, the large population of small towns and their territorial diffusion minimises the urban polarisation capacity of some areas, in which urban facilities are inaccessible, and have no bearing on the living standard. From a total of 48 towns, ten are englobed in the urban agglomerations of Brasov and Sibiu counties, the remaining 60% totalling under 20,000 inhabitants. Oversizing is prominent particularly in Brasov judet, where the ratio between the judet capital and the second-in-rank town is of nearly 1/10. The economy is dominated by industry. There are two major traditional zones: Brasov, specialised in machine-building, and Sibiu where beside machine building they have textile and alimentary industries. Apart from these two traditional zones other areas based their industrial development on local resources, in principal, e.g. methane gas throughout the central part of the region (hence a strong chemical industry) and forestry (wood processing industry). The agricultural land has a balanced spread. The main occupation being the breeding of crop plants and of animals - mainly cattle and sheep. The range of soils and climates have outlined specific agricultural zones (in the intra-Carpathian depressions) and practices even: in the high mountain zones (especially at the periphery of Sibiu, in the so-called “Marginime” area sheep breeding, on the plateau proper they cultivate cereals and fodder plants and raise cattle in particular; and in the vast depressionary corridors, where cereal and potato crops used to be dominant, people are now seriously engaged in swineherding. Major infrastructure. Three railway avenues join in Brasov city, connecting the south of Romania with its west, north-west and northern parts. There are two more thoroughfares of European interest: one (E15) runs diagonally through its central part, and the other (E15A) skirts it in the south-west. The environment. It neight be assumed that the highly afforested Central Region is less exposed to aggressive human activity. Unfortunately, some local centres have a chemical industry that has severely polluted running waters, down to the underground network, and the air. Two of the region’s towns - Copsa Mica and Zlatna (non-ferrous metal processing) have won undesired notoriety in every work dealing with environmental issues in Europe. There are also many other environmentally unfriendly industrial centres, regardless of size, with poly- or monoindustries, chemical as a rule (Ocna Mures, Fagaras, Târnaveni, etc.). 31
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Demography In order to make a correct assessment of the demographic situation in counties and sub-regions, at the same time highlighting the elements liable to attenuating intra-regional disparities, we analysed four indicators which, in our opinion, are quite relevant. Here they are: percent of aged population (65 + years); percent of population with only primary education; percent of urban population, and percent of urban population in cities of more than 100,000 inhabitants. The first indicator shows that the process of ageing is higher in Mures (13.0%), Alba and Harghita (12.0% each). The largest proportion ofyoung population have Brasov (9.0% aged population) and Sibiu (10.0%) counties, due to their attraction force for many youth living in far-away zones. The Mures and Alba record is high through the intense depopulation of some areas from the Transylvanian Plain and the Apuseni Mountains. There is an obvious similitude between Brasov and Sibiu, on the one hand, and the other four judets, on the other. The two groups emerge into two distinct sub-regions, where the analysed indicator values are of 10% and 12%, respectively. Tuition levels are an indirect labour quality indicator. Here we have obvious disparities between the first sub-region (Sibiu-Brasov, with 17.0%) ant the second one (24.0%), the inter-county gap being even wider: 16.0% Brasov, 25.0% Mures and 26.0% Alba. What accounts for the poor score of the last two judets is the relative isolation of some of the settlements based at their periphery, great distances between villages and the county-seats, where secondary schools are usually run. Urbanisation levels - the third indicator - depend on how large the urban network is and particularly on the presence of a big urban centre. In Harghita, for example, though the urban network is fairly large, it is dominated by small towns, without any sizeable city. Therefore its urbanisation index stands at 46%. The highest urbanisation index at both judet and national levels has undoubtedly Brasov, with over 76.0% of the population being town-dwellers. On the average, the situation of the two sub-regions indicates the Sibiu-Brasov grouping as favourite (urbanisation level 73%) against the second grouping (with a 52.0% record, which is under the national average). The high proportion of towns with over 100,000 inhabitants in the first case (62% urban population, as against a mere 20.0% in the latter) tilted the balance in its favour. Economy Because it was hard to obtain concrete data to make a direct appraisal of the economic situation, we resorted to some indirect indicators. Since the labour force structure per judet provides pertinent information, we chose the following indicators: participation rate, dynamics of participation, industrial employees, agricultural employees, unemployment. The participation rate is given by the number of employees/1,000 inhabitants, which represents a relatively faithful reflection of a judet’s capacity to employ its workforce. Brasov, the best industrialised judet, registers 352.0‰ which is the highest employment rate in Romania, after Bucharest city. Next in line stands Sibiu (311‰)
32
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
and downline come the other four judets scoring very close by amongbetween them 263‰-286‰. The gap is even wider between the two sub-regions, i.e. 63‰. In regard to dynamics of participation (salaried people 1995/salaried people 1990), the situation between the two sub-regions is slightly reversed, very much depleted in Sibiu and Brasov, judets severely marked by the decline of the machinebuilding and textile industries. The other judets, with an economy based largely on small - and medium-sized manufacturing units, and a large mining sector subsidised by the state, lost fewer jobs. For example, in Alba judet, where there is an important mining sector, only 22% of the workforce was laid off (compared to 29% in Sibiu judet). Cuts in personal cents have left the industrial workforce of Sibiu and Brasov still at over 40.0% (46.0%), at only 30.0% in Harghita and Mures, and at 35% in Covasna and Alba. The agricultural workforce is proportional to the available arable land, and the share held by state units. In all the judets of the Alba-Mures sub-region the proportion of agricultural labour exceeds 33.0%, as against 18.0% in Sibiu and Brasov. The lowest unemployment record have Alba, Covasna and Brasov judets (7.0%), as the mining industry (non-ferrous metal and coal) holds a large share in the first two. The situation looks very bleak in Mures judet, where the light industry has been severely hit. Infrastructure Although the relief is varied, as are some networks of settlement and human concentration, yet no essential differences emerged in our survey. Railway density depends on the position of the county and its rail centres within the general railway pattern. Obviously, notable differences do exist. One of the best equipped judets is Brasov (62 km track line/1,000 sq.km). Better even scores Mures, due to the multitude of narrow tracks but also to the major lines that run along the main valleys (Mures, Târnava Mare, Târnava Mica). As regards the density of roads, Alba stands at the top of the table (32 km/sq.km) due to its numerous settlements. But, as few roads have been upgraded (20.0%) it lists at the bottom of the table by modernisation criteria. The housing stock, appraised by the average size of a dwelling house and the dwelling space/capita does not reveal notable differences at judet level or between the two sub-regions either. Apparently, Brasov and Sibiu hold a slightly better position with an average dewelling surface of 37 sq.m as against 34 sq.m elsewhere. Living standard This parameter was estimated with the help of four relevant indicators: infant mortality rate (1993-1995), rate of recent outmigration to other judets, number of cars/1,000 inhabitants and number of telephone subscriptions/100,000 inhabitants. Apart from infant mortality with only 1‰ variation, all the other indicators register essential differences. The findings show Mures to stand closer to Brasov and Sibiu judets than to the others which form an individual sub-region of their own. The 33
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
highest living standard registers only Sibiu judet, Brasov listing first with the economic, demographic and infrastructure indicators. Long-distance outmigration has the lowest values in Sibiu and Brasov, actually half those registered by Alba (14‰). Most cars/1,000 inhabitants are seen in Mures judet, approaching, at national level, Romania’s capital Bucharest. The number of telephone subscriptions for the same judet, too is high on the record. However, when grouping the judets by sub-regions, Mures loses its privileged position, because of the obvious gap between the two sub-regions of the Central Region. Conclusions A synthetic appraisal of each region’s development profile relies on the analysis of its sub-units by means of three general indicators: development, human capital, and labour employment. Insofar as development is concerned, Brasov and Sibiu judets stand far ahead of the others (60.0% compared to 54.0% and 56.0% in Mures alone). Much the same goes for the human capital indicator, the above two judets scoring at least one time more the maximum values registered by others. Similarly in point of labour employment, but in this case Brasov marks twice the values of Sibiu. By and large, the problems facing the two sub-regions are very much the same, viz, economic restructuring and revitalisation, with inherent local particularities. For example, in Brasov and Sibiu judets, traditional industries stand a good chance to survive, with promising prospects for the future. In the other judets things are a bit more complicated as restructuring involves beside the big manufacturing units, also the mining sector. Industries based on local resources (wood processing and textiles) ought to be revitalised, agriculture turned into an efficient, prosperous branch, village life boosted and the further depopulation of the countryside prevented.
34
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Annex tables Table 1: Development indices by macroregions NORTHDevelopment index EAST
SOUTH- SOUTH SOUTH- WEST NORTH CENTER BUCHAREST WEST -WEST EAST
COUNTRY
% population out of country population 17 13 16 11 9 13 12 10 100 % of aged population 11 11 13 13 12 11 11 12 12 % of 12+ years old population having 32 30 35 31 24 26 21 19 28 only primary education.1992 % urban population 44 57 42 45 63 52 61 89 55 % urban population in cities of 100000+ 55 69 30 50 40 55 41 99 57 inhabitants Participation rate (salaried population to 222 268 253 240 307 255 298 376 272 1000 inhabitants) Dynamics of participation 1995/1990 75 76 76 73 76 75 75 77 76 % employees in industry. 25 24 30* 24 30* 28 37 32 29 % employees in agriculture. 42 37 39* 43 29 37 28 5 34 Rate of unemployment 14 11 9 10* 7* 9* 9* 5 10 2 Railways density per 1000 km 41* 37* 49* 34 63* 53 52* 177 48 2 Public roads density per 100 km 34 28* 32 34 27 31 26 43 31 % of modernised public roads 21 20 28 24 28 23 24 48 24 Mean living floor area by house 32 35 33 32 37 30 35 35 34 Mean living floor area by person 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 13 12 Infant mortality rate. 1993-1995 28 24 24 22 22 21 17 17 23 Rate of outmigration to other judets 16* 10* 8 9* 7* 9* 10 3 9 Cars per 1000 inhabitants 48 78 81* 77 106 88 112 152 89 Telephone subscriptions per 1000 inh. 102 117 100 86 124 120 133 290 129 *Situations of very high variation within the region (variation coefficient ≥30%) where the regional mean is rather artificial. 35
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
** Unless otherwise specified, figures are computed for 1995
36
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Table 2: Key indices of subregion’s development profile Region
Subregions
NORTH EAST Botosani, Vaslui
Iasi, Suceava, Neamt, Bacau SOUTH EAST Constanta, Galati, Braila Vrancea,Buzau, Tulcea SOUTH Arges, Dâmbovita, Prahova Teleorman, Giurgiu, Ialomita, Calarasi SOUTH WEST Olt, Mehedinti Gorj, Vâlcea, Dolj WEST Timis, Arad Caras-Severin, Hunedoara NORTH WEST Cluj, Bihor Maramures, Satu-Mare, Salaj, Bistrita-Nasaud CENTRE Brasov, Sibiu Covasna,Harghita, Mures, Alba BUCURESTI
Index of global development 1994*
Human capital index 1992-1995**
Index of labor use 1995***
32 46
-159 -61
-257 -79
55
45
56
42
-47
-62
56
40
72
38
-138
-25
44 51 60 54
-79 26 136 41
-6 8 154 35
60 49
135 -18
99 -24
64 54
208 61
114 5
-
-
-
*Index made up of 17 indicators of development refering to economy, infrastructure, demography and family standard of living. See Regional disparities in Romania.1990-1994. Ramboll Consultancy Group. Bucuresti.1996. The computations are based on aggregating the 17 indices after standardising them by the Hull score **Index based on three measures - education stock, infant mortality and development of communication environment in judet. See Dumitru Sandu, “Human capital in regional development”, in Romanian Journal of Sociology (in print). The higher its value the higher the human capital stock. Negative values indicate a location of the subregion under the national average. *** Factor score, multiplied by 100, agregating unemployment, participation rate and out-migration from judet.The index is directly proportional to the intensity of labor use in judet. A subregion has a high index of labor use if having a large number of salaried persons, a low rate of unemployment and a low rate of outmigration. Negative values indicate a location of the subregion under the national average. Bucuresti has much higher values for all the three indices. As a statistical outlier was excluded from the computations. The means for subregions have being computed by using judet’s population as weight..
37
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Table 3: Key indices of judet’s development profile Judets grouped by regions and subregions Botosani Vaslui Bacau Iasi Neamt Suceava Braila Constanta Galati Buzau Tulcea Vrancea Arges Dambovita Prahova Calarasi Giurgiu Ialomita Teleorman Mehedinti Olt Dolj Gorj Valcea Arad Timis Caras-Severin Hunedoara Bihor Cluj Bistrita-Nasaud Maramures Satu Mare Salaj Brasov Sibiu Alba Covasna Harghita Mures
Index of global development* 34 31
Human capital index** -183 -136
Index of labor use*** -255 -259
48 46 43 45 52 59 51 44 40 42 57 50 58 39 35 41 38 47 42 48 58 49 55 63 48 58 57 63 42 51 53 45 66 61 53 53 52 56
-61 -16 -79 -99 42 100 -16 -17 -59 -77 66 -32 66 -146 -163 -134 -118 -60 -90 37 7 26 106 157 16 57 27 229 -34 -7 -9 -31 223 187 45 50 37 90
-46 -31 -206 -64 7 106 28 -113 12 -45 101 14 86 6 -21 -5 -61 28 -27 -20 166 -85 125 174 15 48 87 110 -136 8 51 -61 141 73 31 47 -4 23
38
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Table 4:Population composition by subregions Percentage of Regions and Percent of Percent of Percent of urban population in subregions aged population population with urban only primary population cities of more than (65+ years education.1992 1995 old). 1995 100000 inhabitants Botosani, Vaslui 13 39 42 33 Iasi, Suceava, Neamt, Bacau Constanta, Galati, Braila Vrancea,Buzau, Tulcea Arges, Dâmbovota, Prahova Teleorman, Giurgiu, Ialomita Calarasi Olt, Mehedinti
11
29
45
62
10
28
67
76
13
34
42
50
12
29
45
46
15
43
36
0
14
33
43
32
Gorj, Vâlcea, Dolj
13
30
46
59
Timis, Arad
13
24
58
76
Caras-Severin, Hunedoara Cluj, Bihor
11
24
68
0
12
25
60
68
Maramures, SatuMare, Salaj, Bistrita-Nasaud Brasov, Sibiu
11
27
46
40
10
17
73
62
Covasna,Harghita, Mures, Alba Bucuresti
12
24
52
20
12
19
89
99
Total
12
28
55
57
39
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Table 5: Population composition by judets Judets grouped by regions and subregions
Percent of aged population (65+ years old). 1995
Botosani Vaslui
14 13
Bacau Iasi Neamt Suceava
10 10 11 12
Braila Constanta Galati
12 8 10
Buzau Tulcea Vrancea
14 10 13
Arges Dambovita Prahova
11 12 12
Calarasi Giurgiu Ialomita Teleorman
13 17 12 18
Mehedinti Olt
14 13
Dolj Gorj Valcea
14 11 13
Arad Timis
14 12
Caras-Severin Hunedoara
12 10
Bihor Cluj
13 12
Bistrita-Nasaud Maramures Satu Mare Salaj
11 9 10 13
Brasov Sibiu
9 10
Alba Covasna
12 11
Percent of Percent of Percentage of urban population with urban population in cities of only primary population 1995 more than 100000 education.1992 inhabitants
40 37 30 31 30 27 29 25 30 36 31 34 26 33 30 42 45 40 45 31 34 32 25 30 28 21 27 22 27 23 30 27 25 28 16 19 26 23 40
40 44
70 0
51 51 41 36
55 83 53 46
67 74 60
91 63 85
41 49 39
71 0 66
47 32 52
58 0 56
40 31 42 34
0 0 0 0
49 40
74 0
50 43 41
81 0 67
52 62
75 77
57 76
0 0
49 69
72 66
37 53 46 42
0 52 71 0
76 69
67 56
58 53
0 0
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Harghita Mures
12 13
Bucuresti
12
România
12
22 25 19 28
Table 6: Labor structure and use by subregions Regions and Participation Dynamics of subregions rate (salaried participation (salaried people people to 1995/salaried 1000 inhab.).1995 people 1990) Botosani, Vaslui 181 70 Iasi, Suceava, 235 77 Neamt, Bacau Constanta, 297 77 Galati, Braila Vrancea,Buzau, 225 73 Tulcea 291 79 Arges, Dâmbovota, Prahova 196 70 Teleorman, Giurgiu, Ialomita Calarasi Olt, Mehedinti 213 71 Gorj, Vâlcea, Dolj 255 74 Timis, Arad 299 77 Caras-Severin, 316 75 Hunedoara Cluj, Bihor 281 74 Maramures, 232 75 Satu-Mare, Salaj, Bistrita-Nasaud Brasov, Sibiu 335 74 Covasna,Harghita 272 76 , Mures, Alba Bucuresti 376 77 Total
272
76
41
46 52
0 53
89
99
55
57
Rate of unemploy ment 1995
21 26
Percent of empolyees in agriculture 1995 52 39
24
33
10
23
43
11
38
28
9
16
57
9
20 26 25 38
48 40 32 25
8 11 4 11
31 26
33 41
8 9
44 32
18 35
8 10
32
5
5
29
34
10
Percent of employees in industry 1995
16 13
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Table 7: Labor structure and use by judets Judets Dynamics of Participation grouped by rate (salaried participation regions people to 1000 (salaried people and subregions inhab.).1995 1995/salaried people 1990)
Percent of employees in industry 1995
Percent of Rate of empolyees unemplo yment in agriculture 1995 1995
Botosani Vaslui
176 186
73 68
18 23
54 51
17 15
Bacau Iasi Neamt Suceava Braila Constanta Galati Buzau Tulcea Vrancea Arges Dambovita Prahova
257 256 214 205 275 310 295 198 284 220 306 232 318
79 84 69 71 73 74 85 65 80 78 81 71 81
32 23 28 22 27 17 31 24 17 25 38 36 39
30 36 44 46 39 30 32 46 37 44 29 39 22
11 13 17 12 11 9 12 13 11 8 7 10 9
Calarasi Giurgiu Ialomita Teleorman Mehedinti Olt Dolj Gorj Valcea Arad Timis Caras-Severin Hunedoara Bihor Cluj Bistrita-Nasaud Maramures Satu Mare Salaj Brasov
205 160 228 192 219 209 212 335 257 293 304 260 355 240 316 201 243 247 227 352
65 62 82 72 70 72 65 85 79 81 75 66 81 67 80 72 75 77 77 76
18 13 13 19 20 20 20 37 26 23 26 28 44 28 33 23 27 27 24 46
58 58 52 58 45 50 48 30 37 34 31 34 20 41 26 43 39 43 40 15
9 10 9 10 6 8 13 4 15 5 4 10 12 6 9 15 7 7 10 7
42
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Sibiu Alba Covasna Harghita Mures Bucuresti România
311 286 266 263 270 376 272
71 78 75 75 76 77 76
40 35 35 30 30 32 29
Table 8: Built infrastructure by subregions Regions and Railways Public roads Percent of subregions density per density per modernised 1000 km2 100 km2 public roads Botosani, Vaslui Iasi, Suceava, Neamt, Bacau Constanta, Galati, Braila Vrancea,Buzau, Tulcea Arges, Dâmbovota, Prahova Teleorman, Giurgiu, Ialomita Calarasi Olt, Mehedinti Gorj, Vâlcea, Dolj Timis, Arad Caras-Severin, Hunedoara Cluj, Bihor Maramures, SatuMare, Salaj, Bistrita-Nasaud Brasov, Sibiu Covasna,Harghita, Mures, Alba Bucuresti Total
21 35 33 34 35 5 34
10 7 7 11 12 5 10
Mean living floor area by person m2 10 10
40 41
38 33
17 23
Mean living floor area by house m2 29 33
52
30
21
35
11
24
26
18
34
12
48
41
24
33
11
49
25
33
33
11
35 33 77 47
38 32 30 25
20 27 22 35
32 33 39 34
11 12 14 12
52 54
35 29
22 25
35 27
12 12
59 48
26 26
26 24
37 34
12 12
177
43
48
35
13
48
31
24
34
12
43
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Table 9: Built infrastructure by judets Judets grouped Railways Public roads Percent of Mean living by regions density per density per modernised floor area 2 and subregions 1000 km 100 km2 public roads by house m2 Botosani Vaslui Bacau Iasi Neamt Suceava Braila Constanta Galati Buzau Tulcea Vrancea Arges Dambovita Prahova Calarasi Giurgiu Ialomita Teleorman Mehedinti Olt Dolj Gorj Valcea Arad Timis Caras-Severin Hunedoara Bihor Cluj Bistrita-Nasaud Maramures Satu Mare
32 47 34 53 23 52 35 55 64 38 8 35 33 42 74 48 32 62 51 26 42 30 42 28 63 90 47 48 63 39 68 37 67
37 39 35 43 31 27 24 32 32 34 14 39 39 43 43 22 29 25 25 38 37 29 34 35 27 33 22 27 33 37 24 24 34
17 16 23 18 25 28 20 22 19 16 26 16 22 26 25 36 34 31 31 21 18 22 32 28 24 21 37 32 23 21 26 33 20
44
29 30 34 31 33 33 34 36 34 33 36 35 31 33 34 33 35 33 31 32 32 35 31 30 39 38 36 33 35 34 38 34 16
Mean living floor area by person m2 10 10 11 9 11 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 12 11 13 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 14 14 13 11 13 12 11 11 12
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Salaj Brasov Sibiu
46 62 57
36 25 27
21 29 22
35 35 38
13 12 13
Alba Covasna Harghita Mures Bucuresti România
51 31 32 71 177 48
32 22 22 28 43 31
20 27 29 22 48 24
35 34 34 34 35 34
12 12 12 12 13 12
Table 10: Household level of living by subregions Telephone subscriptions per 1000 inhab. (‰)
24
Cars per 1000 inhab. 1994 (‰) 33
27
13
53
110
Constanta, Galati, Braila
26
7
84
130
Vrancea,Buzau, Tulcea
22
13
67
98
Arges, Dâmbovota, Prahova
21
7
98
115
Teleorman, Giurgiu, Ialomita
28
9
57
79
Olt, Mehedinti
25
11
71
72
Gorj, Vâlcea, Dolj
20
8
80
94
Timis, Arad
20
5
121
141
Caras-Severin, Hunedoara
24
10
87
103
Cluj, Bihor
21
5
106
134
Maramures, Satu-Mare,
22
12
73
108
Brasov, Sibiu
17
7
116
159
Covasna,Harghita,
18
11
109
116
17
3
152
290
Regions and subregions
Infant mortality rate 1993-1995 (‰)
Rate of recent outmigration to other judets 1995 (‰)
Botosani, Vaslui
29
Iasi, Suceava, Neamt, Bacau
76
Calarasi
Salaj, Bistrita-Nasaud
Mures, Alba Bucuresti
45
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Total
23
9
Table 11: Household level of living by judets Judets grouped Infant Rate of recent mortality rate outmigration to by regions and subregions 1993-1995 other judets 1995 (‰) (‰) Botosani Vaslui Bacau Iasi Neamt Suceava Braila Constanta Galati Buzau Tulcea Vrancea Arges Dambovita Prahova Calarasi Giurgiu Ialomita Teleorman Mehedinti Olt Dolj Gorj Valcea Arad Timis Caras-Severin
31 27 28 30 26 24 20 31 23 19 25 24 18 21 24 28 29 32 26 27 23 23 20 16 17 22 21
22 26 15 10 19 11 10 5 8 13 10 15 7 7 8 7 5 11 12 10 12 5 7 13 7 4 9
46
89
129
Cars per 1000 inhab. 1994 (‰)
Telephone subscriptions per 1000 inhab. (‰)
36 30 65 44 52 51 66 89 90 75 58 64 121 74 96 43 78 51 58 82 64 93 66 71 99 136 95
78 73 136 118 99 83 110 153 116 107 93 88 111 82 138 79 80 91 69 80 66 111 76 82 146 137 101
PROFILES OF DEVELOPMENT REGIONS
Hunedoara Bihor Cluj
26 25 17
10 5 4
81 87 123
104 123 144
Bistrita-Nasaud Maramures Satu Mare Salaj Brasov Sibiu
20 21 23 23 17 17
13 12 9 14 7 8
66 69 87 67 109 126
90 112 116 110 143 181
Alba Covasna Harghita Mures Bucuresti România
18 18 18 17 17 23
14 10 10 11 3 9
78 91 90 147 152 89
100 114 91 142 290 129
47
