Aquatic Center/YMCA Feasibility, Sustainability and Economic Impact Study YMCA of Greater Williamson County City of Round Rock, TX Round Rock Independent School District 2016
AQUATIC CENTER/YMCA FEASIBILITY, SUSTAINABILITY AND ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY 2016
YMCA of Greater Williamson County City of Round Rock, Texas Round Rock Independent School District
Contact: George Deines 2425 N. Central Expressway, Suite 359 Richardson, TX 75080 972-370-3741
Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 5 Section 1: Aquatic Trends ............................................................................................................ 9 Competition Pools .................................................................................................................................... 9 Instructional Enthusiasts ......................................................................................................................... 13 Water Wellness Seekers ......................................................................................................................... 16 Specific Programs ................................................................................................................................... 18 Economic Growth ................................................................................................................................... 18
Section 2: Needs Assessment ...................................................................................................... 21 Area Demographics ................................................................................................................................ 21 Existing Facility...................................................................................................................................... 27 Other YMCAs of Greater Williamson County ....................................................................................... 27 City of Round Rock Parks and Recreation Pools ................................................................................... 29 Community Outreach ............................................................................................................................. 31
Section 3: Texas Aquatic Venue Analysis ................................................................................. 35 Section 4: Program Requirements ............................................................................................ 49 Aquatic Center - City/ISD ...................................................................................................................... 49 YMCA Study Findings ........................................................................................................................... 50 Facility Concept – Aquatic Center/YMCA ............................................................................................ 51
Section 5: Operations .................................................................................................................. 53 Economic Impact Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 53 Operations and Business Plan................................................................................................................. 57 Partnership Scenarios ............................................................................................................................. 63 Capital Markets Financing...................................................................................................................... 66
Appendix A: Previously Studied Options ................................................................................ 71 Round Rock ISD..................................................................................................................................... 71 City of Round Rock ................................................................................................................................ 72
Appendix B: Glossary of Terms & Abbreviations .................................................................. 74 Appendix C: Footnotes .............................................................................................................. 77 Appendix D: General Limiting Conditions .............................................................................. 79 Appendix E: YMCA Study Final Report.................................................................................. 80 Appendix F: Survey Findings .................................................................................................... 81
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Executive Summary Goals and Objectives The YMCA of Greater Williamson County, in conjunction with the City of Round Rock, Texas, and Round Rock ISD, contracted Counsilman-Hunsaker to develop a feasibility study for the purpose of expanding the aquatics facility at the Round Rock YMCA. The goal of this study is to: • • • •
Develop a state-of-the-art competitive aquatic venue for Round Rock ISD swimmers and divers, guest teams, and spectators. Expand the City of Round Rock’s ability to maximize economic impact through additional tourism tax dollars as a result of hosting large aquatic events. Provide local swim teams and aquatic enthusiasts a venue for expanded aquatic program services. Offer recommendations and timeline for a new YMCA facility to enhance health, wellness, and childcare offerings in the Round Rock community.
This study concludes the following objectives: • • • • •
Determine community need for an aquatic center. Evaluate and project the economic impact related to aquatic center events. Evaluate and project facility rental income and expenses from local participant usage, including Round Rock student usage. Evaluate and project all other revenue opportunities and recommend best practices for concession operations. Develop an aquatic center facility design.
This study is based on extensive research to analyze needs through the following components: • •
• •
•
Aquatic Trends Needs Assessment o Research area demographics o Lifecycle analysis of existing facilities / site analysis o Community outreach to identify potential user groups / community partners o Develop political poll to test feasibility of the proposed pool concept Evaluate Existing Area Providers Facility Program and Space Requirements o Develop schematic design options for programming o Develop project cost estimates o Components and essential elements of future YMCA Operations and Business Plan o Economic impact analysis o Operations/business plan o Sources of funding
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Recommended Option After exploring a variety of concepts for an efficient partnership on both capital and operational costs, the recommended option for the aquatic center/YMCA includes an indoor 50-meter pool with spectator seating for 1,200, in conjunction with an Express Fitness/Medical YMCA that includes space for segmented fitness, group exercise, child watch, member’s lounge and spaces for a medical rehab/therapy partner. A future expansion of the YMCA is to include other family amenities including a multiuse, shallow water leisure pool with fitness lap lanes, and expanded family program offerings when the population in northeast Round Rock reaches maturity. This option would allow the Round Rock community and YMCA members the ability to use the shallow, warm water pool for fitness swimming when there are events in the competition pool, and would provide the needed warm-up and cool down lanes for the extra-large and statewide swim meets.
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Section 1: Aquatic Trends
Instructional Enthusiasts Water Wellness Seekers Recreation Swimmers Competition Pools Specific Programs Economic Growth Bundling Amenities Marketing
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Section 1: Aquatic Trends Contemporary aquatic centers are fully ADA1 accessible where everyone can benefit from aquatic activities. As more athletes cross train with water fitness components and more doctors recommend water rehabilitation for injured, obese, diabetic, and aging patients, multigenerational aquatic centers are inclusive of the entire community. • • •
Within the last decade, demand for higher quality and a unique pool experience has risen. There are four types of aquatic facility users: instructional, wellness, recreational, and competitive. Each of these groups requires specific areas, features, and services to fulfill their needs. The following descriptions make evident the very different requirements for each of these aquatic user groups when planning and designing an aquatic facility.
Competition Pools •
Simplest pool to define • 25 Yards • 25 Meters • 50 Meters • Aquatic Governing Organizations with rules and regulations that preside over various aquatics: • NFSHS • NCAA • USA Swimming • FINA • Cooler water temperature A competition pool must be 25 yards or 25 meters for short-course events and 50 meters for long-course events. USA Swimming and FINA sanction short-course 25-meter as well as long-course 50meter competitions. Depending on the level of competition, a minimum of six lanes is required, but eight lanes are expected to better allow for larger heats. While almost all 50-meter pools have ten lanes, 1 and 10 serve as buffer lanes. National caliber water polo matches take place in 30-meter fields of play minimum with at least a 2-meter zone behind each goal line. High schools, USA Swimming, the YMCA, and NCAA conduct short-course 25-yard competitions. For high school and NCAA events, a pool must have a minimum of six lanes, each at least seven feet wide. Several current standards require six feet or more of water beneath starting blocks. While some shallow water is acceptable, water depths of two meters or more “is required” as per applicable 9
rules. High school and college water polo often use 25-yard and 25-meter pools, but all high-level meets for USA Water Polo and international events are held in 50meter pools. Water depth of two meters or more “is required” as per applicable rules. Synchronized swimming requires a deep 12-by-25-meter pool area. A minimum water depth of 2.5 meters “is required” as per applicable rules. National and international events are generally conducted in 50-meter pools. Diving Now more than ever, world-class diving venues are being constructed across the United States and abroad. There are two kinds of diving competitions: springboard and platform. Springboard competitions take place at 1-meter and 3-meter heights. At elite venues, a minimum of two 1-meter and two 3-meter springboards are provided. These competition springboards are typically placed on the same side of the pool as the platforms. Often, additional springboards are placed around the dive pool for practice and summer camps. While not a requirement, a separate dive pool is desired for elite dive competition and training. Springboards •
•
1 Meter • • •
High School, Recreation Value Water Depth 12’ 6” Ceiling Height 20’ minimum bottom of beam
• • •
US Diving, Club Water Depth 13’ 6” Ceiling Height 27’ minimum bottom of beam
3 Meter
Platform Platform Diving competition takes place at 10 meters; however, 1, 3, 5, and 7.5 heights are also typically provided for training and warm up. Occasionally, a ½-meter platform is constructed for divers to practice take offs. A facility without a 10-meter tower but only a 5-meter tower can host a platform diving event if both teams agree on this height.
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Dry-land Training Room For high level diving training, a separate room should be equipped with dry-land springboards, trampoline, pits, and video recording. The use of video recording is popular with competitive diving. Tivo can be used to video tape and coach divers. Video recording should be available in the dry-land training area as well as on deck near the springboards and platforms. Often, dry-land training rooms are smaller, and sometimes portions of this equipment is located on the pool deck next to the dive tower. Spectator Seating Spectator seating from the side and elevated in a mezzanine is desired. Specifications are limited to recommendations simply because some areas hold meets that utilize temporary seating. Large world-class diving events have recently been staged with temporary pools with seating for 10,000 or more. Due to the spectator and deck seating requirements for a championship facility, the square footage of such a facility (and therefore cost) is greatly increased. Ample deck space on the sides and end of the dive pool is also needed for viewing the dives by judges. Three, five, seven or nine judges may be positioned on the side or end of the pool depending on the level of competition. •
Program Requirements • Local Meets (100-150) • High School • Dual Meets • Regional Meets (500-750) • State Championships • Zones • National Venue (1,000-1,500) • USA Regionals
Competitive User Groups High School Users High school varsity swimming is typically well supported in most communities across the U.S.; however, many schools lack the ideal facility for training and competition. Because quality pool time is usually scarce in most areas, renting pool time from other area facilities can be daunting due to various needs and agendas, thus pool availability can diminish as facilities experience capacity. High school competitive swimming requirements include: • Course length of 25 yards with a minimum width of 45 feet for six 7-foot-wide lanes or 60 feet for eight 7-foot-wide lanes. • 125 spectator seats. • Pace clocks, stretch cords, mats (for sit-ups, etc.), free weights, medicine balls, weight training equipment, kickboards, fins, paddles, pull buoys, course caps, and goggles.
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USA Swimming USA Swimming has organized regional and national competitions for age group competitive swimming in the United States. USA Swimming formulates rules, implements policies and procedures, sanctions national championships, disseminates safety and sports medicine information, and selects athletes to represent the United States in international competitions. USA Swimming has 300,884 year-round members nationwide and sanctions more than 7,000 events each year. The base for popularity is primarily a young age group that begins around age eight and peaks at age 12 as shown in the adjacent chart.
Average Age of Membership 2014 8 and under 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 and over Total
32,655 28,682 37,266 41,017 40,370 36,712 34,047 26,143 21,306 17,598 12,915 11,192 339,903
Source: USA Swimming
United States Masters Swimming United States Masters Swimming (USMS) programs are open to all adult swimmers (fitness, triathlete, competitive, non-competitive) dedicated to improving their fitness through swimming. Founded in 1970, the non-profit corporation is organized with 450 clubs throughout the United States. Membership consists of more than 50,000 swimmers ranging in age from 18 to over 100. Within the clubs, structured workouts offer training assistance for specific goals for a healthy lifestyle through camaraderie. Pool and open water races provide opportunities to compete and measure individual progress at the local, state, national, and international levels. USMS programs also offer stroke and technique clinics, workshops, instruction, and social functions. Competitions are organized by age groups of five-year increments (18-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, etc. to 95 and over). Events include 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000 and 1650 freestyle (400, 800 and 1500 in meters); 50, 100 and 200 backstroke, breaststroke and butterfly; and 100, 200, and 400 individual medleys. There are also freestyle and medley relays for men, women, and/or mixed teams. Open water swims are held in most locales during the summer and can range in distance from one to ten miles. USMS hosts two national championship meets per year. A short course (25-yard pool) championship is held in May and a long course (50-meter pool) championship is held in August. These four-day events rotate to different locations around the country. International championships are conducted periodically by Masters Swim organizations in countries throughout the world. Community Swim and Dive Teams Numerous communities sponsor competitive swimming and diving teams for children and teens. The purpose is to offer opportunity to enjoy the healthy fun of swimming; to support individual achievement of personal bests; and to promote goal setting, life skills, and sportsmanship. Teams typically adhere to recognized swimming rules and swim the standard strokes of swim meets but in shorter lengths. Swimmers with limited or no competitive experience are provided stroke conditioning clinics as a recommended alternative. Teams are usually more active in the warmer months, and not directly associated with a national swim organization. Many swimmers who begin their competitive swimming experience on a local swim team proceed to join nationally governed teams.
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Pool Rental Competitive swimmers, particularly members of independent swimming associations, are accustomed to renting lane space for training as well as leasing entire facilities, either for longterm use or on a one- to three-day basis for special events and competitions. Although there is more than one accepted way to receive fees from swim teams, pool lane rental is usually based on cost per lane/per hour. Entire facilities leased on a per-day basis generally have a fixed schedule of costs for such use. Long-term facility leases are generally the product of negotiation and, accordingly, are too varied and specialized for consideration in the context of this study. Instructional Enthusiasts The following describes national trends for lessons and fitness users that includes learn to swim, water safety instruction, lifeguard instruction, life safety skills, survival swimming, scuba, and other aquatic skills. Swim Lessons According to the Centers for Disease Control, more than one in five people who die from drowning are children age 14 and younger. For every child who dies from drowning, another four receive emergency care for nonfatal submersion injuries, which can cause brain damage that may result in long-term disabilities, including memory problems, learning disabilities, and permanent loss of basic functioning.2 Knowing how to avoid drowning is essential for children and adults, whether living in areas with natural bodies of water or simply being invited to pool parties. With more than one available pool in an aquatic center, lessons can be maximized so that a large number of residents can be taught to swim. Ideally, water depth for instruction should accommodate young participants to stand comfortably in the water. Recreation pools easily provide this preference. Deeper competition pools offer moveable floors or other means of altering water depth for instructional purposes. A well-run water lesson program is essential in introducing young swimmers to safe aquatic skills that can be used throughout their lives. By offering the community a comfortable, controlled aquatic environment, swimming and diving lessons can become an enjoyable learning experience. There are many different types of water safety lessons that can teach children not only how to swim and dive but how to survive in adverse water conditions. From small water craft instruction to drown-proofing, water safety is an integral part of any community. Many will go on to formal competitive aquatic programs in school or age-group swimming programs. Some will excel to become state champions. Benefits such as scholarship offers may occur when a swimmer or diver selects a college, which could lead to national level competition. Drown-Proofing Aware of 74 cases of body entrapments, including 13 confirmed deaths between January 1990 and August 2004, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission reported the deaths were the result of drowning after the body or limb was held against the drain by the suction of the circulation pump. The incidents occurred in both residential and public settings.3 Subsequently, a federal pool and spa 13
safety law was signed by former President George W. Bush on December 19, 2007. The Virginia Graeme Baker Pool and Spa Safety Act requires all public pools and spas to have safety drain covers, and in certain circumstances, an anti-entrapment system.4 The goal of the law is to improve the safety of all pools and spas by increasing the use of layers of protection and promoting uninterrupted supervision to prevent child entrapments and drownings. When teaching proper drown-proofing, some classes mimic the natural environment through instructor creativity (i.e., creating wave action with hands and arms to mimic river tides), while others simply require small children to memorize what they would do in a situation where drowning is likely, and then enact memorized skills with an instructor present. Knowing how to avoid drowning is essential for children and adults, and even more so when living in areas where natural bodies of water are prevalent. Lifeguarding and CPR Water rescue skills and CPR are typically taught to all lifeguards. However, teaching water rescue and CPR skills are integral to the community since families are the true lifeguards of one another whether at the beach or a backyard pool. Often, such courses are sponsored by the Red Cross, Ellis and Associates, and other providers of safety training. School District Lesson Users School districts are often valuable contributors to help efficiently program aquatic facilities. Potential programming might embrace swim lessons for elementary students, lifeguarding classes, physical education classes, therapy for high school athletes, and other joint partnership agreements to aid in directing area children to learn to swim. Aquatic sports (diving, water polo, synchronized swimming, underwater hockey, etc.) can contribute to the overall use of the facility as well as fitness use by faculty, special education therapy, and recreation. In addition, an aquatic facility may provide aquatic opportunities to pre-school children cared for by private daycare providers. Aquatic Fitness The more often the pool can be utilized for group activities for participants and spectators, the more likely the aquatic facility will be “alive” day in and day out. The types of activities that tend to draw a crowd are participatory, measurable, exciting, and often challenging—but not always so challenging that only elite swimmers can participate. Activities can be tailored to different ages, sizes, and/or skill levels. The industry has responded to the continued popularity of aquatic fitness by creating a wide range of activities with related devices and equipment for a greater diversity of water-based aqua exercise options. Aerobic dancing, walking, and running in shallow and deep-water environments, including current channels for walking against the current, are just a few of the choices available to people wishing to add less stressful elements of a cross-training regimen or even to use aqua aerobics for their entire fitness program. Additionally, businesses might sponsor or subsidize aquatic fitness as part of their employee wellness training discipline. • 14
Water-based exercise is the fastest growing fitness choice in the U.S.5
• • • •
In 1983 there were nearly 200,000 participants 1988 – 2.2 million 2004 – 5.8 million 2007 – 7.2 million
LIFETIME EXPECTANCY Aquatic fitness also remains one of the most popular forms of Both Sexes Year exercise among senior adults. Data taken from the National 47.3 1900 Center for Health Statistics shows lifetime expectancy is up 30 68.2 1950 77.0 2000 years since 1900.6 The older adult market spans four Source: National Ctr. For Health Statistics generations from the Progressive Era 1900-1928, Depression Era 1929-1939, WWII Era 1940-1945, and Baby Boomers 1946-1964. Gray power can be a large, affluent market willing to participate in water fitness, wellness programming, and other recreation opportunities. This diverse age group from 55 to 90+ includes sub-groups of which some are still working; some have children in college; and some are focusing on retirement, grandkids, and wellness. Consequently, seniors can be willing, enthusiastic participants if certain requirements are met. They typically feel uncomfortable in an environment with teens and generally respond better to strictly defined programming of well-structured activities such as water aerobics, arthritis water exercise, water walking, physical therapy, adult swim lessons, ‘Save a Life’ workshops, lap swimming, and Masters swimming.
Water Fitness Trends Aquatic programming accommodates beginner lessons that graduate to higher levels of intensity and skill. The following provides a snapshot of popular aquatic fitness programs. Walking and Jogging in Shallow and Deep Water: The current channel, attached to a leisure pool, provides water traveling at approximately three miles per hour, thus creating an opportunity for walking against the current as a non-programmed or programmed fitness activity. According to waterart.org, “30 minutes of walking and jogging in shallow and deep water is equal to 80 minutes of jogging on land.” Water Aerobics: Remaining one of the fastest growing segments of the adult fitness industry, water aerobic workouts usually combine a variety of land aerobic techniques, including walking or running backwards and forwards, jumping jacks, mimicking cross-country skiing, and various arm movements. The workout may also incorporate equipment such as flotation devices and foam water weights. Deep Water Aerobics: This type of water aerobics offers a muscular endurance workout in deep water that consists of simulated running in the deep end of the pool aided by a flotation device (vest or belt) where the participant is held in one location by a tether cord, essentially running in place. Finning: This active swimming program requires training fins or flippers and utilizes fitness lap lanes of a pool. The kicking and pulling enhances conditioning and toning. Liquid Gym: This aqua training workout can be as intense as desired with a personal trainer for the purpose of improved athletic performance. Navy Seals: This aquatic class consists of Finning, water jogging, deep water aerobics, and scuba instruction. Water Yoga: Warm water, as in a therapy pool, enhances asanas (stretching poses) to relax muscles and increase range of motion and balance. Pan flute music and dim lights deepen the experience. (yogaafloat.com) Boot Camp: This amphibious program incorporates land and water fitness in a fast paced military-style interval training course with running in the pool, calisthenics, jumping jacks, 15
pushups, and football-style drills. Scuba and Snorkeling: These lessons are growing in popularity (possibly due to the increase of environmental professions) and typically start in swimming pools. Scuba Rangers: Scuba and snorkeling skills are taught to kids 8 to 12 while using underwater flashlights, navigation compasses, and underwater photography. Underwater Hockey: According to USOA Underwater Hockey, “The pool should be 25meters by 15-meters and two-meters deep all the way across, but anything will do, even slopes (just change ends at half-time). Lead weights and three meters of rope can be used as goals, though the sound of the puck thunking into the back of a metal goal is very satisfying and should be experienced.” Water Polo: Dimensions of a water polo pool are not fixed and can vary between 20 by 10 and 30 by 20 meters. Minimum water depth must be at least six feet. The goals are three meters wide and 90 centimeters high. Kayak Polo: This sport involves water polo being played from kayaks. According to Carolina Kayak Polo, “It is difficult to describe the passion and excitement that is created when a kayak water polo game is in progress. The participants—speeding the length of the pool weaving through the opponent’s lines of defense and spinning in their kayaks to receive a pass—create a fast and thrilling event.” Water Basketball: Ideated in 1986 by Italian teacher, Francesco Rizzuto, this sport is a mixture of basketball and water polo. When designing a pool, full court water basketball is more challenging when tile lines are encrypted into the floor of the pool. Water Volleyball: Portable and floatable aqua water volleyball sets come complete with two net positions, two anchor bags, and a staked floating perimeter boundary. Triathlons: These athletic competitions, which the contestants compete in three different events to find the best all-around athlete, typically consist of swimming, cycling, and running. Kayak and Canoe Clubs: Due to the popularity of Extreme Sports, kayak and canoe clubs are growing in popularity and use large pools for training. Swim lessons, lap swimming, water jogging, deep-water aerobics, life saving instruction, diving lessons, survival swimming, synchronized swimming, water polo, underwater hockey, and scuba instruction can take place in a competitive/lesson/training pool, which frees up the recreation pool for swimmers who want to use the play features. Fitness classes are usually offered in the morning, at lunchtime, and in the early evening. Instructor information and/or training can be acquired through organizations such as the Arthritis Foundation; Red Cross; Aquatic Exercise Association; American Alliance for Health, Physical Education, Recreation and Dance (AAHPERD); and United States Water Fitness. Water Wellness Seekers The following describes national trends for water wellness seekers, the fastest growing aquatic user group that includes therapy programs, water exercise classes, water aerobics classes, and fitness classes. Aquatic therapy is rehabilitation performed in warm water and involves physical activity of exercise and motion in the presence of an aquatic therapist, also called an aquatic therapy provider. Warm water may increase the dynamics of blood pressure and blood and 16
lymph circulation, as well as decreasing swelling in skin and other tissues. Participation in an aquatic therapy program offers improvement in: • • • • • • •
Overall health and fitness Stretching capacity Range of motion Movement capabilities Coordination Physical stamina and endurance Swimming skills, safety, and abilities
Though many people who use aquatic therapy are enthusiasts of meditation or massage, some are looking for rehabilitating or improving a certain level of health. The Arthritis Foundation certifies instructors to teach arthritis aquatics. Many participants in these programs report reduced arthritis symptoms, including increased mobility and decreased pain and stiffness.7 New studies by the Aquatic Exercise Association suggest that the management of bone density can be facilitated by water exercise.8 When moderate exercise is recommended for obese patients, the low-gravity qualities of aquatic therapy can be very appealing to this user group. Over the past several years, water exercise programs have multiplied in health clubs, pain clinics, and hospitals. Users include: Injured Athletes: Athletic trainers and sports medicine physicians are prescribing aquatic therapy as a rehabilitative/preventive fitness program. Post-Operative Patients and the Disabled: Includes patients with physical ramifications such as spinal dysfunctions, post-operative muscle toning, injuries, and arthritis. Arthritis Sufferers: The Arthritis Foundation certifies instructors to teach arthritis exercises such as Rusty Hinges and Joint Effort. Aging Baby Boomers: Some 70 million strong, “boomers” invented the fitness movement and show no sign of abandoning it as they age, especially in warm water pools. Obese Patients: More doctors are prescribing water wellness for overweight issues. Pregnant Women: Effects of the low resistance of water exercise is soothing to this user group. Meditation Enthusiasts: Fans of mind and body movements enjoy immersing in warm water pools to complete the tranquil state of meditation. Key Components of Aquatic Therapy Centers Aquatic therapy centers are growing in necessity for rejuvenation and social wellness for rehabilitation needs and developmental disorders. Colorful environments and interactive water is a stimulating, effective, and cathartic treatment, while specific design elements are ultimately inspired by the rehabilitative needs of patients. Key components include: • Warm pool water capability with fast pool turnovers. • High-quality water chemical treatment systems, including dual sanitization methods and an appropriately designed HVAC/DH system. • Easy access from the parking lot to the locker rooms, pool deck, and into the pool. • Ample space in locker rooms and wider pool deck for wheelchairs, walkers, dry and wet equipment, and dry-side therapy. • In-water amenities such as perimeter railings, aerobic steppers, treadmills, underwater benches, and ramps. • Flexible pool depths for multiple programmatic needs. 17
•
Aesthetically pleasing and light-filled private spaces.
Specific Programs Recreation Swimmers – Tots, children, pre-teens, teens, young adults, adults, elderly – ADA Accessible – Parties / Social Function Rentals Instruction/Fitness Enthusiasts – Club Activities: Kayaks, Canoes, SCUBA – Water Safety Lifesaving – Organized Water Exercise: Water Aerobics, Lap Swimming Therapy Seekers – Disabled / Physically Impaired Utilization Competition User Groups – Competitive Swimming – Diving – Synchronized Swimming – Water Polo
Economic Growth Encouraging residents to use public recreation facilities requires helpfulness of the promotional materials, perceived value against other providers, and public awareness that the facility addresses the prevailing needs and concerns of the community. The aquatic center must be seen as integral to economic development through: • Real estate values and property tax • Business attraction and retention • Stimulating the creative economy • Promoting tourism According to the Importance of Quality of Life in the Location Decisions of New Economy Firms, “modern businesses typically choose communities with cultural and recreational amenities that will attract and retain a well-educated workforce.”11 This enlarges the tax base and stimulates the economy, which then provides more tax revenue that parks and recreation agencies can use to enhance or expand infrastructure, facilities, and programs. Park and recreation amenities stimulate happier and healthier families, positive business growth and economic development opportunities, contributing to quality of life. Creative, active people choose to live in communities with high quality amenities and experiences. Furthermore, championship venues bring tourism revenue to local hotels, restaurants, and retail businesses.
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Bundling Amenities Locating aquatic centers adjacent to parks, schools, businesses and transportation hubs promotes accessibility. Bundling civic destination points can encourage customers to extend the duration of their visit, nurture community identity, and increase operational efficiency for those agencies responsible for park maintenance and facility security by minimizing demand on parking lots, access roads, and traffic signals. If the site has an existing recreation facility, utilities more than likely are already in place. Electricity, natural gas, water and sewer services can be very expensive to introduce to a site from main trunk lines, especially if those lines are several miles away. Because bringing utilities to the project site has no programmatic or recreation value, the adjacency and availability of existing utilities can dramatically and positively impact site development costs with little or no negative impact to the end user. This allows the bulk of construction monies to be allocated for recreational improvements. Many communities choose to co-locate outdoor and indoor facilities to share spaces without either facility interrupting the operations of the other. For example, a separate outdoor entrance to an aquatic center can accommodate patrons to that facility, minimizing congestion in the main building. Plans can be made for locker rooms to support both outdoor and indoor spaces, eliminating redundancy. Physically connecting the indoor aquatic spaces with those that are outside, makes for the easy transition of patrons from outdoor to indoor swimming—particularly crucial in cases of inclement weather. This also helps keep facility guests on site, thus maximizing opportunities for revenue generation. Useful promotional tools include partnerships with local business centers, which can generate valuable word-of-mouth appeal for the facility. As noted, an aquatic center’s economic wellbeing often depends on its proximity to well-traveled roads, highways and transportation hubs. Sites located in valleys or on hillsides adjacent to major highways can be developed into exciting destination points. A site in a valley near a main transportation artery can be oriented so that guests enter the recreation facility and instantly gain an overview of the park. This allows guests to immediately spot their favorite destinations and level of anticipation, yet because of enhanced transparency also provides for the safety and comfort of different age groups.
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Section 2 Needs Assessment
Area Demographics Existing Facility Community Outreach Political Poll
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Section 2: Needs Assessment Area Demographics Factors that can influence attendance include projections for growth/decline of population, income levels, and age groups. Market studies are used to predict how relevant products, services, and fees are to residents. Originating from 2400 Chisholm Trail, Round Rock, TX, 78681, the primary area is assumed as 25 miles, and the service area is assumed as 5 miles. The difference between “primary” (25-mile market area) and “service area” (5-mile market area) is that waterpark users will customarily drive farther to use a facility than will community pool users (about 5 miles). Thus, a study of demographic patterns in the area is helpful in projecting usage rates. The resident market area has been divided into the following distances. Distance From Site 0 to 3 Miles 3 to 5 Miles 5 to 10 Miles 10 to 15 Miles 15 to 25 Miles Distance Map
Population The following chart presents a summary of market area population with concentric rings surrounding 2400 Chisholm Trail, Round Rock, TX, 78681. The 2010 U.S. Government Census was used to estimate the population for 2015 and to make projections for 2020. • The population base for the City of Round Rock is projected to go from 111,000 residents to 126,100 by 2020. • Population is trending up in the 25-mile area. • Over one million people reside within 25 miles. MARKET AREA POPULATION BY DISTANCE 2010 Radius
Population 2015 Number Percent (000's) of Total 74.6 5.0%
2020 Number Percent (000's) of Total 85.2 5.2%
Average Annual Change 2010-2015 2016-2020 Number Percent Number Percent (000's) Change (000's) Change 1.4 2.0% 2.1 2.7%
0 to 3 Miles
Number (000's) 67.7
Percent of Total 4.8%
3 to 5 Miles
71.8
5.1%
80.4
5.4%
93.4
5.7%
1.7
2.3%
2.6
3.1%
5 to 10 Miles
369.9
26.4%
416.6
27.8%
469.3
28.6%
9.3
2.4%
10.5
2.4%
Subtotal
509.4
36.3%
571.6
38.2%
647.9
39.5%
12.4
2.3%
15.3
2.5%
10 to 15 Miles
256.0
18.2%
287.8
19.2%
312.1
19.0%
6.4
2.4%
4.9
1.6%
15 to 25 Miles
637.9
45.5%
637.9
42.6%
681.7
41.5%
0.0
0.0%
8.8
1.3%
Subtotal
893.9
63.7%
925.7
61.8%
993.8
60.5%
6.4
0.7%
13.6
1.4%
1,403.3
100.0%
1,497.4
100.0%
1,641.7
100.0%
18.8
1.3%
28.9
1.9%
2.2
2.1%
3.0
2.6%
Total (0-25 Miles) Round Rock, TX
100.0
111.0
126.1
Source: Alteryx
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Income To a certain degree, the likelihood of residents to engage in aquatics depends on their ability to pay for admission and program fees. In the following chart, the U.S. national average is set at 1.00. Index refers to the percentage higher or lower than the national average. • Per capita income for the City of Round Rock is 19% higher than the national average. • Median household income for the City of Round Rock is 42% higher.
MARKET AREA INCOME Radius
Per Capita Incomes
Median Household Incomes
0 to 3 Miles
Dollars $32,052
Index 1.21
Dollars $78,452
Index 1.49
3 to 5 Miles
$33,995
1.28
$79,889
1.52
5 to 10 Miles
$33,813
1.28
$70,906
1.35
10 to 15 Miles
$36,177
1.37
$59,670
1.13
15 to 25 Miles
$32,736
1.24
$50,586
0.96
Round Rock, TX $31,581
1.19
$74,714
1.42
1.00
$52,599
1.00
Total U.S.
$26,464
Source: Alteryx
23
Map of Market Area Income
24
Age Distribution Age distribution is another population characteristic used to determine the type and level of use of any type of program. The following table provides the number of residents and the percentage of total population for each age group compared to the U.S. column, which identifies the national average. • 0-19 age group is 32.6% of the City of Round Rock’s population compared to the national average of 26.5%. • Median age for the city is younger than the national average (32.9 compared to 37 respectively). MARKET AREA AGE DISTRIBUTION Age Groups Age 0-4 Age 5-9 Age 10-14 Age 15-19 Subtotal Age 20-24 Age 25-29 Age 30-34 Age 35-39 Age 40-44 Age 45-49 Age 50-54 Age 55-59 Age 60-64 Age 65-69 Age 70-74 Age 75-79 Age 80-84 Age 85+ TOTAL: Median Age
0 to 3 Miles # % 5,965 8.0% 7,043 9.4% 8.9% 6,638 6.9% 5,170 24,816 33.3% 5.5% 4,070 6.5% 4,833 7.9% 5,861 6,674 8.9% 8.8% 6,587 5,403 7.2% 6.3% 4,695 4.9% 3,675 2,965 4.0% 2.7% 1,993 1.6% 1,159 1.0% 727 0.7% 520 613 0.8% 100.0% 74,591 33.1
3 to 5 Miles % # 8.3% 6,650 9.2% 7,362 8.7% 6,967 6.6% 5,270 32.7% 26,249 5.1% 4,138 5,458 6.8% 7,086 8.8% 7,643 9.5% 9.2% 7,429 6,011 7.5% 6.3% 5,044 4.6% 3,726 2,982 3.7% 1,975 2.5% 1,212 1.5% 0.9% 694 410 0.5% 335 0.4% 100.0% 80,392 33.2
5 to 10 Miles % # 7.5% 31,357 7.5% 31,452 7.3% 30,369 6.4% 26,493 28.7% 119,671 6.0% 24,811 8.5% 35,376 9.3% 38,718 36,119 8.7% 8.3% 34,730 29,881 7.2% 6.6% 27,311 5.4% 22,415 17,066 4.1% 2.8% 11,513 1.7% 7,216 1.1% 4,702 0.8% 3,319 3,800 0.9% 100.0% 416,648 33.7
10 to 15 Miles % # 7.5% 21,543 20,534 7.1% 17,913 6.2% 14,663 5.1% 25.9% 74,653 6.2% 17,879 9.2% 26,547 8.7% 24,938 22,166 7.7% 7.4% 21,205 6.4% 18,400 17,781 6.2% 16,046 5.6% 4.9% 14,228 4.0% 11,519 2.8% 8,181 6,180 2.1% 4,421 1.5% 1.3% 3,692 100.0% 287,836 35.0
15 to 25 Miles % # 42,427 6.7% 40,843 6.4% 38,133 6.0% 44,592 7.0% 165,995 26.0% 66,250 10.4% 63,093 9.9% 8.7% 55,716 47,524 7.4% 44,524 7.0% 39,875 6.3% 38,813 6.1% 35,056 5.5% 28,596 4.5% 18,806 2.9% 1.9% 11,997 1.3% 8,509 6,343 1.0% 6,812 1.1% 100.0% 637,909 32.0
U.S. Age Round Rock, TX # % Population 8,843 8.0% 6.5% 6.5% 10,007 9.0% 6.6% 8.7% 9,640 6.9% 7.0% 7,721 26.5% 36,211 32.6% 7.1% 6,148 5.5% 6.8% 7.0% 7,767 8.5% 6.6% 9,410 6.3% 9,779 8.8% 6.8% 8.7% 9,639 7.3% 7.1% 8,103 7.3% 7,041 6.3% 6.5% 5,443 4.9% 4.0% 5.7% 4,406 2.6% 4.2% 2,841 3.1% 1.5% 1,713 0.9% 2.4% 1,045 1.9% 690 0.6% 729 0.7% 1.9% 100.0% 100% 110,965 37.0 32.9
Source: Alteryx
25
Map of Market Area Age Distribution
26
Existing Facility Chasco YMCA 1812 N. Mays Street Round Rock, TX 78664 512-246-9622 Features Indoor Family Fun Pool Lap Pool Therapy Pool Whirlpool Dry Sauna Programs Masters Swimming Swim Lessons Water Fitness Joining Fee $50-$100 Annual Fee Age 12-17: $162 Age 18-25: $292 Age 18-61: $454 Age 62+: $292 Family: $832 Daily Pass Individual: $4
Other YMCAs of Greater Williamson County Burnet YMCA 1601 S. Water Street Burnet, TX 78611 512-756-6180 Features Indoor 25-Yard Pool Splash Pad Programs Swim Lessons Swim Team Masters Swimming Scuba 27
Joining Fee $50-$100 Annual Fee Age 12-17: $162 Age 18-25: $292 Age 18-61: $454 Age 62+: $292 Family: $832 Daily Pass Individual: $4 Hutto YMCA 200 Alliance Blvd. Hutto, TX 78634 512-846-2360 Features Indoor 2-Lane Therapy Pool Whirlpool Programs Swim Lessons Water Fitness Warm Water Therapy Open Swim Joining Fee $50-$100 Annual Fee Age 12-17: $162 Age 18-25: $292 Age 18-61: $454 Age 62+: $292 Family: $832 Daily Pass Individual: $4
28
Twin Lakes/Cedar Park YMCA 204 E. Little Elm Trail Cedar Park, TX 78613 512-250-9622 Features Indoor 25-Yard Pool Indoor Therapy Pool Outdoor Pool w/Waterslide Outdoor Splash Pad Programs Swim Lessons Warm Water Therapy Open Swim Water Fitness Masters Swimming Joining Fee $50-$100 Annual Fee Age 12-17: $162 Age 18-25: $292 Age 18-61: $454 Age 62+: $292 Family: $832 Daily Pass Individual: $4
City of Round Rock Parks and Recreation Pools Clay Madsen Recreation Center Pool 1600 Gattis School Rd. Round Rock, TX 78664 Features Indoor 6 Lane 25-Yard Pool Programs Swim Lessons Fitness Classes Birthday Parties Daily Fee Individual: $5 Annual Membership Adult: $120 Senior: $65 Family: $270
29
Rock ‘N River Family Aquatic Center 3300 Palm Valley Blvd. Round Rock, TX 512-671-2737 Features Outdoor Waterpark Sprayground Play Unit Synthetic Climbing Wall Drop Slide Deep Water Lagoon Fees TBA Micki Krebsbach Swimming Pool 301 Deepwood Drive Round Rock, TX 512-218-7090 Features Outdoor Leisure Pool Pirate Ship Play Unit Fees Children: $1 Adults: $2 Seniors: $1 Lake Creek Pool 800 Deerfoot Drive Round Rock, TX 512-218-7030 Features Outdoor Six Lane 25-Yard Pool Programs Swim Lessons Lifeguard Training Water Safety Instructor Classes Fees Children: $1.50 Adults: $2.50 Seniors: $1.50
30
Community Outreach YMCA Project Steering Committee In August, October, and December 2015, the consultant met with the project steering committee (below) to discuss the needs of the YMCA, Round Rock ISD and the City of Round Rock to develop the initial program requirements to meet each of the group’s aquatic needs. Aquatic/YMCA Collaboration Committee Jon Sloan (Chair) Jeff Andresen Charles Avery John Avery Sr. Dr. Trip Fell Dr. Steve Flores Laurie Hadley Chad McKenzie Craig Morgan Paul Tisch Dwayne Weirich Steering Committee Jon Sloan (Chair) Jeff Andresen Dr. Trip Fell Chad McKenzie Dwayne Weirich YMCA Committee Jeff Andresen (Chair) Lisa Koen John Lyon Gregg Miller Ed Ramos Cori Risener John Smith Sheri Yerrington Aquatics Committee Rick Atkins Brooks Bennett Dr. Trip Fell (Co-Chair) Chad McKenzie (Co-Chair) Timothy Strucely Dwayne Weirich (Co-Chair) Bryan Williams Nancy Yawn
31
YMCA, City of Round Rock and Round Rock ISD Stakeholders YMCA • Programming: swim lessons, wellness and therapy classes • Leisure amenities for family swim • Fitness lap lanes Recommendation Pool to meet these needs would include 4,000-5,000 sq/ft of shallow warmer water with a zerobeach entry, fitness lap lanes, and leisure components to be included in the Aquatic Expansion Area in the graphic on page 6 of this report. Round Rock ISD The consultant held community input sessions with Round Rock ISD aquatic stakeholders and user groups, including Round Rock ISD High School swim team coaches, Round Rock ISD High School swim team parents, community summer league swim teams, community USA Swimming swim team coaches/board members, and other aquatic user groups (water polo, synchronized swimming, diving). Aquatic Stakeholder Input • Swimmer safety and weather is a concern with only outdoor swimming available yearround. • Schools do not currently have space for strength and conditioning training at their facilities. • Schools do not have ability to offer a junior varsity swim program or a diving program. • There are currently close to 200 swimmers in Round Rock ISD. • High schools do not have an indoor facility to host swim meets and must offer outdoor swim meets. • High schools are turning away up to 40 swimmers per school because of lack of training space. • School district would like to explore elementary water safety education program. School District Facility Needs • Practice space for five current high schools and two future high schools, including space to add junior varsity swim program, utilizing the pool for both morning and afternoon practices. • 1-meter and 3-meter diving boards to add district-wide diving program. • Indoor facility to host district and regional swim meets (8-10 per school year). Recommendation Pool to meet these needs would include a 50-meter by 25-yard pool (20-22 short course lanes) with spectator seating for 500-750, and including warm-up/cool down lanes to be included in the Aquatic Expansion Area in the graphic on page 6 of this report. City of Round Rock • Competition venue to attract overnight visitors and tourism to the city. • Indoor aquatic facility to meet growing swim community in Round Rock. Recommendation Pool to meet these needs would include a 50-meter by 25-yard pool with spectator seating for 1,200 and 1-meter and 3-meter diving.* *After initially showing an option that would maximize tourism and economic impact (pages 7172), this option was developed to provide an aquatic center that would still attract tourism to the City, provide a competitive venue for area swim teams, and help meet the needs of the growing swim community. 32
Section 3 Texas Aquatic Venue Analysis
33
Section 3: Texas Aquatic Venue Analysis The competitive swimming industry is a market vying for disposable income driven by population trends, income levels, demographic profiles, and favorable locations. Large aquatic centers and destination facilities offer a grand scale of cutting-edge amenities, deliver a unique customer experience, and draw from a large radius. Small to medium aquatic centers compete by offering family amenities in a cozy atmosphere, thus delivering a friendly customer experience to the local market. University of Texas – Lee and Joe Jamail Texas Swimming Center 1900 Robert Dedman Dr. Austin, TX 78712 512-471-7703
Features • • • • • •
Indoor 50-meter by 25-yard pool Two retractable bulkheads Four 1-meter springboards Two 3-meter springboards Platform tower with 1-, 3-, 5-, 7.5-, and 10-meter platforms, as well as four 3-meter springboards Bubbler system
Programs Programs include university swimming and diving teams; university-offered swimming and scuba-diving classes; Longhorn Aquatics, a youth program; and the annual state high school championships in swimming and diving, run by the University Interscholastic League.
35
Texas A&M University Natatorium 797 Olsen Blvd. College Station, TX 77845 979-845-7826 Features • • • • • • • • • •
Indoor 50-meter pool Two moveable bulkheads One underwater viewing window 80 x 160 tri-color full matrix scoreboard/message center Two 1-meter and two 3-meter springboards 1-, 3-, 5-, 7.5- and 10-meter platforms Bubbler system under all platforms and 3meter springboards Whirlpool Instructional pool, 60 feet long 42 feet wide (five lanes) 1,100 armchair stadium seats + 700 bleacher seats + 24 handicap spaces + 700 spaces for folding chairs for a total of 2,524 total seats
Programs Programs include the university’s swimming and diving teams, a variety of university-offered aquatic classes, and tournaments.
36
Northside ISD Swim Center San Antonio 8400 North Loop 1604 W San Antonio, TX 78249 210-397-7525 Features • Outdoor 50-meter by 25-yard competitive pool • Diving well • Spectator seating for 2,400 Programs Programs include fitness classes, swim lessons, diving lessons, lifeguarding instruction, and USA Swimming swim team.
37
Palo Alto College 1400 W Villaret Blvd San Antonio, TX 78224 210-486-3000 The Palo Alto Aquatic Center is a joint-use facility between the Alamo Colleges and the City of San Antonio. Features • • • • •
76-meter "stretch" pool—warm-up/diving pool attached to a 50-meter competition pool Moveable bulkheads Dakronics timing system/scoreboard Two 1-meter and two 3-meter diving boards plus platforms at 5-, 7.5-, and 10-meters above a 4.87-meter plummet Spectator seating for 1,600
Programs Programs include swim lessons, lifeguarding instruction, water fitness, swim team, diving team, synchronized swimming, and pool party rentals.
38
North East ISD - Josh Davis Natatorium 12002 Jones Maltsberger Road San Antonio, Texas 78216 210-356-6925 Features • Indoor eight lane 50-meter pool • Indoor eight lane 25-meter pool • Four 1-meter diving boards • Two 3-meter diving boards • Spectator seating for 1,500 Programs Programs include Masters Swimming, swim team, water aerobics, and competitive diving classes.
39
Mansfield ISD Aquatic Club 1001 N Holland Rd. Mansfield, TX 76063 817-276-5230 Features • Indoor eight lane 50-meter by 25-yard pool • Two diving platforms • 1-meter diving board • 3-meter diving board • Spectator seating for 1,000 Programs Programs include diving team, swim team, swim lessons, high school swim team, USA Swimming team, college/university swim team, first aid/CPR classes, and lifeguard training classes.
40
Lewisville ISD Westside Aquatics Center 1750 Duncan Ln. Lewisville, TX 75067 214-222-6940 Features • Indoor 75-meter Myrtha pool • Shallow lap pool • Two 1-meter diving boards • Two 3-meter diving boards • Spectator seating for 1,200 Programs Programs include high school swim team and major collegiate meets, including district championships and Pro-Ams; swim lessons; water polo; lifeguard instruction; and birthday parties.
41
Keller ISD Natatorium 1000 Bear Creek Pkwy. Keller, TX 76248 817-744-1350 Features • Indoor 50-meter pool • Three 1-meter diving boards • Two 1-meter diving boards • Colorado Timing System • Spectator seating for 750 Programs Programs include swim teams, dive teams, fitness classes, and swim lessons.
42
Rockwall ISD Natatorium 1205 T.L. Townsend Dr. Rockwall, TX 75807 469-698-7410 Features • Indoor 50-meter by 25-yard pool • Two bulkheads • Two 1-meter diving boards • Two 3-meter diving boards • Four lane 25-yard warm-up pool • Whirlpool • Spectator seating for 1,000 Programs Programs include swim team, water fitness, Masters Swimming, and party rentals.
43
Loos Natatorium 3815 Spring Valley Rd. Addison, TX 75001 972-888-3191 Features • Indoor eight lane 50-meter by 20-meter pool • Diving area • Bulkhead • Colorado Timing System • Spectator seating for 800 Programs Programs include swim team, swim lessons, fitness classes, and Masters Swimming.
44
Conroe ISD Natatorium 1933 David Memorial Drive Shenandoah, TX 77385 936-709-3901 Features • Indoor 50-meter pool • Two bulkheads • Four 1-meter diving boards • Two 3-meter diving boards • Warm pool • Daktronics Scoreboard • Spectator seating for 900 Programs Programs include high school swimming and diving, facility rentals, lifeguard instruction, USD Dive Safe Training, and Profession Pool and Spa Operator Track.
45
Pools Currently Utilized by RRISD Swim Teams
46
Section 4 Program Requirements Facility Program Space Requirements Future YMCA Components
47
Section 4: Program Requirements Aquatic Center - City/ISD 50m x 25y Competition Pool 13,200 sq/ft with two movable bulkheads 20 Short Course Lap Lanes 8, 50-Meter Long Course Lap Lanes 1m, 3m Diving with 250 sq/ft dive spa 1,200 Spectator Seating Project Cost: $24,000,000 - $25,000,000 Annual operating subsidy: $650,000 *Final design to impact overall facility cost estimate
49
YMCA Study Findings • • • • • • • • • • • • •
50
20,000 sq/ft Express YMCA/Medical Rehab center Achievable New Units: • 2,091* (with use of pool)** • 1,800 (without use of pool) Chasco Transfers: 21 Hutto Transfers: 4 Without access to a lap pool, the YMCA/rehab will have an anticipated loss of $150,000. With lap pool, YMCA can contribute $98,000 to the aquatic center. Northeast Express YMCA/Medical Rehab Center has the ability to contribute to Greater Good without significantly cannibalizing from Chasco or Hutto. Northeast Express YMCA/Medical Rehab Center serves adult/senior market only. Additional family units added as population growth into northeast Round Rock reaches maturity. Membership totals drop by 15% if swimming pool usage is not available. Phase 1 (YMCA + Medical) contributes $98,000 to aquatic center subsidy Phase 2 (Aquatic Expansion) contributes additional $100,000 to aquatic center subsidy YMCA Program Components • Fitness Cardio – 4,500 sq/ft • Group Exercise – 2,500 sq/ft • Child Care – 800 sq/ft • Member’s Lounge – 1,500 sq/ft • Shallow/Warm Water Pool – 1,800 sq/ft • Member-Use Locker Rooms – 2,000 sq/ft • Lobby – 1,500 sq/ft • Meeting Room – 500 sq/ft
Facility Concept – Aquatic Center/YMCA
51
Section 5 Operations
Economic Impact Analysis Operations/Business Plan Funding Options
52
Section 5: Operations Economic Impact Analysis • • • • •
Review historic data for local, regional and national events, including participants, spectators and percentage of local vs. non-local visitors Project non-local days in market based on participation Analyze average daily expenditure Project incremental tax revenue generation This summary represents the events that are projected to be regular, annual events that can be relied upon throughout the course of operations. Additional larger events exist that could be sought after on a semi-regular basis (i.e. every 2-3 years) that would generate additional economic impact above and beyond what is shown here.
Summary of Economic Impact Annual Event Projections Total Number of Events Total Number of Event Days
25 40
Event Swimmer Projections Total Number of Swimmers Total Number of Visiting Swimmers
Year 1 8,650 2,725
Year 2 9,143 2,880
Year 3 9,664 3,045
Year 4 10,215 3,218
Year 5 10,797 3,401
Non-Local Days in Market Total Number of Visitor Days in Market
Year 1 15,006
Year 2 15,862
Year 3 16,766
Year 4 17,721
Year 5 18,731
Room Nights Total Number of Room Nights
Year 1 3,707
Year 2 3,918
Year 3 4,142
Year 4 4,378
Year 5 4,627
Year 1 $1,519,533
Year 2 $1,606,146
Year 3 $1,697,697
Year 4 $1,794,465
Year 5 $1,896,750
Direct Spending Total Direct Spending
53
54
55
56
57
Operations and Business Plan Event Revenue This describes the number of events held annually for five years. The anticipated number of participants and a breakdown of event-related revenue received in the following categories: event facility rental, gate fees for events, event-specific sponsorships, event-specific, advertisements, and food and beverage proceeds: • Projected number of hotel stays and impact on local restaurants • Direct expenses for event-related activities • Staffing • Event promotional staff • Event host staff • Event specific janitorial and maintenance staff • Advertising/marketing • Travel and meals • Misc. rental expenses
ATTACHMENT A - EVENT RELATED REVENUE/EXPENSES REVENUES
EXPENSES
+/(-)
YEAR 1
$170,000
$167,579.20
$2,420.80
YEAR 2
$184,500
$178,767.52
$5,732.48
YEAR 3
$207,585
$198,099.71
$9,485.29
YEAR 4
$217,964
$206,001.41
$11,962.84
YEAR 5
$237,267
$221,696.75
$15,570.07
58
Facility Rental Revenue (local groups): This describes the revenue earned from local group rentals (swim teams, diving teams, water polo, scuba groups, etc.). The study will provide projected annual income for five years, with the number of participants, rental fees, etc. Facility Rental (local groups) Direct Expenses: This describes any direct expenses related to facility rental (local groups) not captured in attachment (D). ATTACHMENT B - FACILITY RENTAL REVENUE/EXPENSES REVENUE
EXPENSES
+/(-)
YEAR 1
$318,240
$191,982.0
$126,258.00
YEAR 2
$334,944
$202,639.20
$132,304.80
YEAR 3
$378,544
$229,143.85
$149,400.47
YEAR 4
$389,156
$235,972.24
$153,183.29
YEAR 5
$420,312
$255,147.22
$165,164.96
59
Other Revenue Concession (revenue): Proceeds from sales of food products sold at aquatic events. Program (revenue): Swim lessons, aquatic parties, any aquatic-related lessons or clinics, etc. (YMCA will provide this revenue projection). Day passes (revenue): Day fees charged to access the aquatic center during community lap swim time. YMCA member use (revenue): Percentage of YMCA membership fees distributed to offset the cost of the aquatic center (amount provided by YMCA). Sponsorship (revenue): Any revenue generated through sponsorships. Advertisement (revenue): Any revenue generating through onsite advertisements. Fundraising and Grant Potential (revenue): Any revenue generated through grants or fundraising efforts. Misc. (revenue): Any other revenue not described in a prior category. Direct Expenses for Other Concession operating expenses: This describes the direct expenses related to operating expenses of the concession stand. The study should describe the best method to administrate the concession services. Program related expenses: This describes direct expenses related to providing “YMCA programs”, i.e. swim lesson, clinics, etc. The YMCA will provide this information. Other expenses: This describes the direct expenses related to any “other” related income earned not described in attachments (A) or (B).
ATTACHMENT C - OTHER REVENUE REVENUE
EXPENSES
+/(-)
YEAR 1
$169,000
$117,764.60
$51,235.40
YEAR 2
$183,900
$127,268
$56,631.99
YEAR 3
$211,305
$144,949
$66,355.12
YEAR 4 YEAR 5
$220,770 $242,244
$151,122.21 $164,965.14
$69,647.51 $77,278.48
60
Facility-Related Costs Utility costs: Water, sewer, electricity, gas, waste disposal. Chemical costs: All chemicals related to sanitation and upkeep of pools. Janitorial supplies: All day-to-day cleaning supplies. Aquatic administrative supplies: All aquatic-related supplies. Daily maintenance supplies: All day-to-day maintenance supplies and repairs, etc. Other supplies: Any other facility expenses not categorized above. Human Resource and Program Costs Administration: To be provided by YMCA. Lifeguards: To be provided by YMCA. Maintenance and janitorial: To be provided by YMCA. Program related staff (swim instructors, etc.): To be provided by YMCA. All program related supplies: To be provided by YMCA. Direct Facility Expense Budget RECOMMENDED OPTION Facility Staff Registration Desk (Contract with YMCA) Aquatic Staff Benefits/Taxes Total Labor
$45,000.00 $240,000.00 $41,250 $326,250
Contractual Services Administrative Overhead Insurance Repair and Maintenance Total Contractual Services
$30,000 $163,679 $78,900 $272,579
Commodities Operating Supplies Chemicals Advertising Total Commodities
$47,340 $57,032 $21,000 $125,372
Utilities HVAC Electricity Telephone Trash Service Water & Sewer Total Utilities
$257,969 $221,234 $2,592 $12,480 $57,009 $551,284
Total Operating Expenses Capital Replacement Fund Total Expense
$1,275,484 $157,700 $1,433,184
61
Revenue/Expense Categories The following charts detail five-year projections for the expected revenues and expenses of the Aquatic Center/YMCA. INFO PROVIDED BY
BACKUP SHOWN ON ATTACHMENT
EVENTS
STUDY
A
LOCAL RENTAL
STUDY
B
ATTACHMENT F PROJECTED REVENUE
YEAR 1
YEAR 2
YEAR 3
YEAR 4
YEAR 5
$170,000 $318,240 $50,000 $1,394,729 TBD TBD
$184,500 $334,944 $52,500 $1,394,729 TBD TBD
$207,585 $378,544 $55,125 $1,394,729 TBD TBD
$217,964 $389,156 $57,881 $1,394,729 TBD TBD
$237,267 $420,312 $60,775 $1,394,729 TBD TBD
CONCESSIONS
STUDY
C
PROGRAM
YMCA
C
SPONSORSHIPS
STUDY
C
ADVERTISEMENTS
STUDY
C
% OF YMCA MEMBERSHIPS
YMCA
C
$98,000
$98,000
$98,000
$98,000
$98,000
OTHER REVENUE
STUDY
C
$169,000 $2,199,969
$183,900 $2,248,573
$211,305 $2,345,288
$220,770 $2,378,500
$242,244 $2,453,327
YEAR 1
YEAR 2
YEAR 3
YEAR 4
YEAR 5
$178,768 $202,639 $31,500
$198,100 $229,144 $33,075
$206,001 $235,972 $34,729
$221,697 $255,147 $36,465
TOTAL
ATTACHMENT F PROJECTED EXPENSES
A,B,C
INFO PROVIDED BY
BACKUP SHOWN ON ATTACHMENT
EVENT RELATED
STUDY
A
RENTAL RELATED
STUDY
B
CONCESSIONS
STUDY
C
$167,579 $191,982 $30,000
OTHER EXPENSES
STUDY
C
$117,765
$127,268
$144,949
$151,122
$164,965
FACILITY RELATED
STUDY
D
$1,275,484
$1,307,371
$1,340,055
$1,373,557
$1,407,896
STAFFING EXPENSES
YMCA
D
$527,979
$527,979
$527,979
$527,979
$527,979
ADMINISTRATIVE
YMCA
D
CONTINGENCY/MISC
STUDY
A,B,C,D
$866,750 $79,486.80 $2,729,047
$866,750 $81,428.88 $2,795,725
$866,750 $84,362.20 $2,896,436
$866,750 $86,043.95 $2,954,175
$866,750 $88,587.60 $3,041,508
A,B,C
($529,078)
($547,152)
($551,148)
($575,676)
($588,181)
TOTAL EXPENSES TOTAL NET/PROCEEDS/LOSS
62
B
Partnership Scenarios There are many different partnership scenarios to be explored for both capital and operational costs. There charts detail the cost-sharing that could take place for the YMCA / Aquatic Center. Aquatic Center
Cost
Round Rock ISD/City of Round Rock
$24,000,000 - $25,000,000
Potential Partnership Example 100/0 80/20 60/40
$25,000,000/0 $20,000,000/$5,000,000 $15,000,000/$10,000,000
Aquatic Center
Annual Operating Subsidy
Round Rock ISD/City ff Round Rock
$650,000
Potential Partnership Example 100/0 80/20 60/40 50/50
$650,000/0 $520,000/$130,000 $390,000/$260,000 $325,000/$325,000
Aquatic Center
Annual Operating Subsidy
Ymca Phase 1
Ymca Phase 2
Round Rock ISD/City of Round Rock
$650,000
$550,000
$450,000
650,000/0 $520,000/$130,000 $390,000/$260,000 $325,000/$325,000
$550,000/0 $440,000/$110,000 $330,000/$220,000 $275,000/$275,000
$450,000/0 $360,000/$90,000 $270,000/$180,000 $225,000/$225,000
Potential Partnership Example 100/0 80/20 60/40 50/50
Funding Options 63
There are many different funding methods for the project. In addition to capital market financing (i.e., the sale of bonds or issuance of contracts to private entities such as banks or lending institutions), there are other forms of funding that have been used in other projects. Financing, in most cases, requires the sale of bonds. For any bond to be sold, an independent bond rating institution must evaluate the entity to be represented by the bond. This rating will determine the bond price and interest rate, and as a result, the overall worth of the bond. The following are four bonding institutions in the United States. Examples of Bond Rating Institutions • • • •
Moody’s Investor Service Standard & Poor’s Corporation Fitch Investors Service, L.P. Duff & Phelps Credit Rating Co.
Financing generally occurs in one of the forms or methods as outlined below. Direct Funding 1. 2. 3.
Direct Appropriation Private Contributions Joint Ventures
Capital Markets Financing 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
Local Discretionary Sales Surtax The sale of General Obligation Bonds The sale of Certificates of Obligation The sale of Revenue Bonds The sale of Certificates of Participation The sale of Lease Revenue Bonds
These options are not mutually exclusive in every case. In fact, the final financing for the new facility is likely to be a package of various financing sources that collectively reach the needed total. Direct Appropriations The city is permitted by law to directly appropriate money to the development, construction and operation of an aquatic center. This would include money either spent directly on the project or contributed to another entity established for this purpose. As a practical matter, the likelihood of getting a new aquatic center off the ground without extensive and direct financial support is fairly remote. The other sources of funding cannot be expected to enthusiastically embrace the aquatic center unless the city is already financially committed to the project.
Private Contributions 64
For different reasons, various private individuals and corporations may have an interest in supporting an aquatic project. The center could be positioned as a major factor in building civic pride, promoting economic development, enhancing community facilities and other positive attributes. Properly structured, any of the financing and ownership options selected will permit taxdeductible giving from most private contributors. Historically, contributions from outside sources have not exceeded matching funds. Some sample commemorative gift opportunities that have been suggested by other facilities include: • • • • • • •
Pool Structure $1,000,000 Entrance/Offices $ 500,000 Balcony $ 500,000 Campaign Name Itself $ 250,000 Locker Rooms $ 250,000 Large Brick & 1yr. Memb.$ 10,000 Bricks/Tiles (contributors) $ 500
Joint Use and Joint Partnership Agreements Joint Use Agreements and other collaborations with area municipalities, educational institutions, businesses, health care providers, and other organizations and institutions can be significant sources of revenue and programming opportunities. A Joint Use Agreement has the potential of increasing programming opportunity and financial support. While this process is difficult to manage in terms of organizing the different priorities and agendas of the different organizations, it has proven worthwhile in other communities. The establishment of a partnership can be a positive experience for the desired aquatic facility. Recent years have provided many examples of existing partnership relationships to establish major facilities. Partnerships have allowed organizations to create useful recreational facilities that otherwise would not have been possible. The following are some reasons an organization may wish to engage into a partnership relationship: •
Cost to provide government service is high
•
Creates budget and creative programming opportunities
•
Spreads the risk among the partners
•
Merging resources creates a higher level of service delivery
•
Offers entrepreneurial opportunities not always affordable to public agencies
•
Planning changes the mindset of the players and forces them to think creatively
•
Encourages a market driven approach rather than a product driven approach
The desire to partner with others is popular when there is mutual interest in building a major capital asset. What potentially exists in partnership relationships frequently occurs between one or more sectors such as two or more public sector organizations, and the public sector and the not-for-profit organizations, and the private sector and the public sector.
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Partnership relationships usually exist in one of two forms as outlined in the following examples: •
Investment Partnerships: public sector organizations such as schools or park organizations, and/or the private sector, and/or the not-for-profit engage in equity construction of a capital asset. In recent years these facilities have included gymnasiums and fitness facilities.
•
Program Partnerships: public sector organizations such as schools or park organizations, and/or the private sector, and/or the not-for-profit engage in the provision of programs to benefit the community or facility. These programs are typically outsourced by the public or not-for-profit sector organization to the private sector. In these instances, it is determined that the public sector is better off managing the activity rather than producing it. In recent years these programs have included facility management, specialized training programs, and specific skill activities.
Establishing an Investment Partnership relationship can be tricky, especially when considering a partnership involving several entities. The structure of such a relationship must allow for consistent operations, policy making, and operational management of the facility after it is open. There is a potential for the relationship to be very complex and challenging given the financial structure, the differences in the makeup of the policy making boards, and the administrative structures of each entity. Program Partnerships would come after the Investment Partnership relationship is created and executed. Program Partnerships could be as complex as determining financial access to the facility to use and the allocation of time or identifying how the facility will incorporate programs. Each of these issues will need to be discussed so a clear idea of financial and operational issues are understood and agreed upon among the partners before the facility is ready to open. Typically, before any successful partnership is undertaken, these three critical considerations must be addressed. 1. There is a Common Vision: a compelling picture of the possibilities must be shared by all. This does not mean that everyone necessarily needs to have the same goals, but all partners must be able to achieve their goals within the “big picture” of the project. 2. Impact of the New Relationship: adding real value to the agencies involved. If the involved agencies see the partnership creating the ability to improve productivity, efficiency, and profitability while achieving the desired goals, then the desired impact is mutual and the partnership is one step closer to achieving the desired goals. 3. Knowing through Intimacy: Intimacy (closeness, sharing, and trust) is never achieved easily or quickly. To achieve intimacy, there must be no hidden agendas; the ideas of all potential partners regarding the goals of the project must be out in the open. There must be similar interest but separate expertise regarding the project, which is to say that each partner should “bring something to the table.”
Capital Markets Financing
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The final five methods of financing all involve the capital markets. General Obligation Bonds and Revenue Bonds are issued directly by the city. A third-party owner, set up expressly for this purpose, and using the tax-exempt issuing authority of the city, issues Certificates of Participation and Lease Revenue Bonds. The city would simply be leasing the aquatic center from this entity. The suitability, structure, requirements, costs, advantages, and disadvantages of each are quite different. The remainder of this section summarizes some of these features. Local Discretionary Sales Surtax Issuance Requirements If General Obligation Bonds become a part of the financing package, the issuer must accomplish all of the following: 1.
Internal approvals: The city has an internal approval process before implementing the discretionary sales tax. The proposed sales tax must be endorsed by the city council.
General Obligation Bonds In selling General Obligation Bonds (also known as Council Manic Bonds), a municipality obligates itself to levy and collect sufficient property taxes without limit as to the rate or the amount in order to pay principal and interest as it comes due. Using General Obligation Bonds (GOBs) is a way to finance capital improvement projects (such as parks, facilities and streetscapes) by taking out bonds with very low interest rates. Tax Status to Investors Income from General Obligation Bonds generally is exempt (to the investor) from federal income taxes. Issuance Requirements Should General Obligation Bonds become a part of the financing package, the issuer must accomplish all of the following: 1.
Internal approvals: The city has an internal approval process before any bond issue can proceed. The proposed bond must be endorsed by the council. General Obligation Bonds could be used if approved by the voters.
2.
Voter approval: A General Obligation issue must go before the voters, and must secure the approval of a majority of the voters.
3.
Compliance with indebtedness limits: The city faces indebtedness limits based on the aggregate property value in the tax bases.
Certificate of Obligation 67
In selling Certificate of Obligation Bonds, the debt instrument is secured by the revenue from the proposed facilities, and the municipality obligates itself to levy and collect sufficient property taxes, without limit as to the rate or the amount, to pay principal and interest as it comes due. Tax Status to Investors Income from Certificate of Obligation Bonds is generally exempt (to the investor) from federal income taxes. Issuance Requirements Should Certificate of Obligation Bonds become a part of the financing package, the issuer must accomplish all of the following: 1.
Internal approvals: The city has an internal approval process before any bond issue can proceed. The proposed bond must be endorsed by the city council.
2.
Compliance with indebtedness limits: The city faces indebtedness limits based on the aggregate property value in the tax bases.
Revenue Bonds Revenue Bonds are to be repaid out of the revenues generated by the operation of the aquatic center. The risk that the center’s revenues will prove insufficient to cover interest and principal payments on the bonds is borne by the investor. The facility’s revenue (in excess of debt service requirements) is retained by the city. It is possible that the facility will not generate sufficient revenue to cover all of its debt service obligations. A revenue bond may be appropriate for use if an entity were to underwrite the operating cost of operating the community aquatic center and thereby release the revenue stream to secure revenue bonds. Tax Status to Investors Like General Obligation Bond interest, income from Revenue Bonds generally is exempt (to the investor) from federal income taxes. Issuance Requirements The requirements to issue Revenue Bonds are slightly less restrictive than General Obligations. In this case, the city must accomplish all of the following: 1.
Internal approvals: The city has an internal approval process before a bond issue can proceed. The proposed bond must be endorsed by the city council.
2.
Compliance with indebtedness limits: The city faces indebtedness limits based upon the aggregate property value in their tax bases.
Certificates of Participation (Municipal Lease) 68
A Certificate of Participation (COP) is not a debt issue per se. Instead, the investor purchases a proportional share of lease income that the issuer expects to receive over the life of the COP. It also differs from the bond financing options previously discussed in that the issuer is not the city, but rather an independent entity created specifically for this purpose. This entity sells the COPs, uses the proceeds to develop the community aquatic center and then leases the completed center to the city. It secures the means to pay the COP’s holders from the rental income it receives from the city. In general, a COP must have sufficient revenue generated by the facility to pay for debt service. It is unlikely that the aquatic recommendations developed will generate enough positive cash flow after operations to meet this requirement. By pledging gross revenues to support the COP, this structure may be worth considering. Under this scenario, operating expenses would be paid by another source, possibly a corporate sponsor. Third-Party Lessor The aquatic center would be constructed and owned (initially, at least) by a third-party entity, who would function as the lessor in this deal. In general, there are three possible kinds of entities for this purpose: • • •
Private sector entity; for example, a leasing company or a private investment group; Constituted authority; for example, a Joint Powers Authority established by the city for this purpose; or, A not-for-profit corporation.
City as Lessee The city would be the lessee of the aquatic center, making periodic lease payments to the owner of the facilities. The respective share of the lease payments to be made by each would be a negotiated amount, based on upcoming contributions, ongoing usage, and other factors. Kinds of Municipal Leases There are two kinds of leases that may be structured: 1) Operating Lease: The payments from the city are made for just the use of the center. 2) Financing Lease: The payments made by the city provide for both the use of the center and an accruing ownership in the facilities. Thus, a financing lease functions as a purchase-over-time arrangement for the city. Impact on Indebtedness Ordinarily, the lease obligations incurred by the municipality are not treated as debt. Consequently, entering into a municipal lease ordinarily is not subject to voter approval or debt limitation provisions.
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Financing Cost Ordinarily, the cost of municipal lease financing may range from twenty to fifty basis points above comparable financing through General Obligation Bonds. The reason for the higher rate is that the lessor is at risk throughout the life of the lease that the city will decline, for any reason, to appropriate the funds to make their periodic lease payments. There is no comparable risk in a General Obligation Bond. Lease Revenue Bonds (Municipal Lease) In most respects, Lease Revenue Bonds function like Certificates of Participation (the option previously discussed). The essential difference between these two is the legal nature of the financing instruments being sold by the independent entity (the lessor). A Lease Revenue Bond is an obligation of the issuing authority, whereas the Certificate of Participation provides merely for the flow-through of that authority’s rental income from the city to the COP’s holders. Impact on Indebtedness Ordinarily, the lease obligations incurred by the municipality are not treated as debt. Consequently, entering into a municipal lease ordinarily is not subject to voter approval or debt limitation provisions. Financing Cost The cost of Lease Revenue Bonds may be slightly less than the cost of Certificates of Participation, because the only security behind the Certificates of Participation is the pass-through of the rental income from the city.
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Appendix A: Previously Studied Options Round Rock ISD 50m x 25y Competition Pool 22-24 Short Course Lap Lanes Eight 50-Meter Long Course Lap Lanes 1m, 3m Diving 600 Spectator Seats Support Spaces Lobby Meet Management Coaches’ Offices Locker Rooms Team Locker Rooms Project Cost: $21,000,000 - $22,000,000 Operational Subsidy: $500,000* *Expenses for facility personnel, utilities, repair/maintenance, contractual services, commodities, operating supplies, chemicals, advertising. *Revenues for swim club lane rental, masters swimming, meet rental, concessions, community swim programming.
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City of Round Rock 50m x 25y Competition Pool 25y x 25m Dive Pool 1m, 3m Diving 5M, 7.5m, 10m Platform Diving 1,500 Spectator Seats Project Cost: $31,000,000 Annual Operating Subsidy: $750,000 Annual Economic Impact: $2.8M - 5.1M
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Economic Impact Analysis • • • •
Review historic data for local, regional and national events, including participants, spectators and percentage of local vs. non-local visitors Project non-local days in market based on participation Analyze average daily expenditure Project incremental tax revenue generation
Summary of Economic Impact Annual Event Projections Total Number of Events Total Number of Event Days
29 52
Event Swimmer Projections Total Number of Swimmers Total Number of Visiting Swimmers
Year 1 13,050 4,050
Year 2 13,794 4,281
Year 3 14,580 4,525
Year 4 15,411 4,783
Year 5 16,290 5,055
Non-Local Days in Market Total Number of Visitor Days in Market
Year 1 28,388
Year 2 30,006
Year 3 31,716
Year 4 33,524
Year 5 35,435
Room Nights Total Number of Room Nights
Year 1 7,486
Year 2 7,912
Year 3 8,363
Year 4 8,840
Year 5 9,344
Direct Spending Total Direct Spending
Year 1 $2,874,518
Year 2 $3,038,366
Year 3 $3,211,553
Year 4 $3,394,611
Year 5 $3,588,104
Impact of National Event (Every 3-5 Years) Total Number of Visitor Days in Market Total Number of Room Nights Total Direct Spending
Low
Mid
High
14,025 4,007 $1,420,172
18,488 5,282 $1,872,095
22,950 6,577 $2,323,917
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Appendix B: Glossary of Terms & Abbreviations A ADA: Americans with Disabilities Act. Under Title III, no individual may be discriminated against on the basis of disability with regards to the full and equal enjoyment of the goods, services, facilities, or accommodations of any place of public accommodation by any person who owns, leases (or leases to), or operates a place of public accommodation.
Aquatic Therapy: Health-oriented water programs for arthritis, obesity, surgery recovery, athletic injuries, meditation, etc.
Age Distribution: Using the 2000 Census, numbers and percentages are available by census tract showing different age groups, thus providing a median age.
B Baby Boomers: An increased number of people born between 1946 and 1964.
American Alliance for Health, Physical Education, Recreation and Dance: AAHPERD is an alliance of five national associations, six district associations, and a research consortium which support healthy lifestyles through high quality programs. Aquatic: Of or pertaining to water. Aquatic Design: Detailed drawings of pool shells, pool structures, pool filtration systems, and other equipment for new or soon-to-be renovated swimming facilities.
Aquatics: Water sports, including swimming, diving, water polo, synchronized swimming, etc. Arthritis Foundation: A not-for-profit contributor to arthritis research.
Bathhouse: A building with restrooms, showers, family changing rooms, locker rooms, concessions, supplies, and equipment. C Census Tract: A small, permanent subdivision of a county with homogeneous population characteristics, status, and living conditions.
Aquatic Center/Facility: A place designed for fitness swimming, recreation swimming, swim lessons, and water therapy programs.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: One of the major operating components of the Department of Health and Human Services, CDC’s mission is to promote health and quality of life by preventing and controlling disease, injury, and disability.
Aquatic Exercise Association: A not-forprofit educational organization committed to the advancement of aquatic fitness worldwide.
Center for Urban and Regional Studies: Conducts and supports research on urban and regional affairs to build healthy, sustainable communities across the country and around the world.
Aquatic Governing Bodies: Organizations with rules and regulations that preside over various aquatics.
Competition Community: Athletes, coaches, trainers, etc. who work to compete in aquatics.
Aquatic Providers: Facilities offering aquatics.
Competition Venue: Facility capable of hosting aquatics with regulation sized pools,
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spectator seating, etc. CPR: Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation is an emergency medical procedure for a victim of cardiac or respiratory arrest. D Demographics: Selected population characteristics taken from publicly available data to determine shifting trends used in marketing. 16 Disposable Income: Income available for saving or spending after taxes. E Ellis and Associates: Lifeguard training program. F Facility Audit: Report that identifies areas for extending life expectancy and/or improving operational efficiency of existing pools and natatoriums. Feasibility Study: Business plan with concept designs and project and operating costs for a proposed aquatic or sports recreation facility. FINA: Federation Internationale De Natation Amateur governs Masters Swimming, Open Water, Diving, Water Polo and Synchronized Swimming. Fitness Community: People engaged in water exercise with related devices and equipment for water-based exercise options. H HVAC/DH System: Heating, ventilating, air conditioning / dehumidification structure for a natatorium. L Leisure Industry: Entertainment, recreation, and tourism related products and services.
Leisure Pools: Free-form pools that include fun attractions such as waterslides and play features. Lessons Community: People engaged in swim lessons, drown proofing, lifesaving, lifeguarding, and CPR instruction. M Median Age: This measure divides the age distribution into two equal parts: one half of the cases falling below the median value and one-half above the value. Median Household Income: Income of the householder and all other persons 15 years old and over in the household. Median represents the middle of the income in a demographic location, dividing the income distribution into two equal parts, one having income above the median and the other having income below the median.
N Natatorium: The room where an indoor swimming pool is located. National Center for Health Statistics: Part of the CDC, including diseases, pregnancies, births, aging, and mortality data. National Recreation and Parks Association: The voice advocating the significance of making parks, open space, and recreational opportunities available to all Americans. National Sporting Goods Association: NSGA supports retailers, dealers, wholesalers, manufacturers, and sales agents with survey data in the sporting goods industry. NCAA Swimming: The National Collegiate Athletic Association governs collegiate swimming competition in the USA. 75
NFHS: The National Federation High School governs high school varsity swimming. P Per Capita Income: Average obtained by dividing Total Income by Total Population. Pro Forma: Projected cash flow in a business plan. R Recreation Community: People engaged in the fun and leisure of swimming. Red Cross: Preparedness programs in first aid, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and automated external defibrillator. S State Construction Codes: Public safety building requirements by state. T Therapy Community: People engaged in rehabilitation performed in water involving exercise and motion in the presence of an aquatic therapist. Therapy Pool: Pool with warm water usually between 87 - 92 degrees Fahrenheit used for aquatic therapy. Trends: The general course or prevailing tendency of a market. U United States Water Fitness: A non-profit, educational organization committed to excellence in educating and promoting aquatics, including national certifications in water exercise. USA Swimming: National Governing Body for competitive swimming in the U.S. divided into local swimming committees.
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United States Masters Swimming: National organization that provides organized aquatic workouts, competitions, clinics, and workshops for adults 18+. U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission: Works to ensure the safety of consumer products from unreasonable risks of serious injury or death.7 W Waterpark: Destination-oriented facility that draws patrons from greater than 25 miles.
Appendix C: Footnotes 1. ADA Retrieved 1-14-16. http://www.ada.gov/ 2. Centers for Disease Control. Water-Related Injuries: Fact Sheet. Retrieved 1-14-16. http://www.cdc.gov/homeand RecreationalSafety/Water-Safety 3. U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. Guidelines for Entrapment Hazards: Making Pools and Spas Safer. Retrieved 1-14-16. http://www.cpsc.gov//PageFiles/103057/poolspadraft.pdf 4. U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. Virginia Graeme Baker Pool and Spa Safety Act. Retrieved 1-14-16. http://www.cpsc.gov/pagefiles/103157/vgbunblockfinal.pdf 5. Aquatic exercise statistics - how popular is non-swimming aquatic exercise? The Aquatic Therapist, April 30, 2009; Water Aerobics as an Alternative to Land Based Exercise, College Sports Scholarships, accessed July 13, 2010. 6. National Center for Health Statistics. Lifetime Expectancy. Retrieved 1-14-16. www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html 7. Arthritis Foundation. Arthritis Foundation Aquatic Program. Retrieved 1-14-16. http://www.arthritis.org/aquatic-program.php 8. Aquatic Exercise Association. Retrieved 1-14-16. http://www.aeawave.com/ 9. USA Swimming. 2012 Demographic Report. Retrieved 1-14-16. http://www.usaswimming.org/DesktopDefault.aspx?TabId=1521&Alias=rainbow&Lang =en 10. United States Masters Swimming. History & Archives. Retrieved 1-14-16. http://www.usms.org/hist/ 11. Crompton, John L. “Evolution and Implications of a Paradigm Shift in the Marketing of Leisure Services in the USA (2008).” Leisure Studies, 27:2, 181-205. Retrieved 1-14-16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02614360801902224 12. Downey, Kevin. Media Life Research. “Movie Theater Spots Earn a Thumbs Up (2007).” Retrieved 1-14-16. http://www.medialifemagazine.com/artman/publish/article_10744.asp
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Appendix D: General Limiting Conditions This study is based on information that was current as of February 2016. Every reasonable effort has been made in order that the data reflects the most timely and current information possible and is believed to be reliable. This study is based on estimates, assumptions, and other information developed by the consulting team from independent research. No warranty or representation is made by the consultants that any of the projected values or results contained in this study will actually be achieved. No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the client, its agents and representatives or any other data source used in preparing or presenting this study. This entire report is qualified and should be considered in light of the above conditions and limitations.
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Appendix E: YMCA Study Final Report
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Appendix F: Survey Findings
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A FourSquare Market Study
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA Presented to the YMCA of Williamson County & Counsilman-Hunsaker December 2, 2015 Submitted by
FourSquare RESEARCH, INC. 3577 Chamblee Tucker Road Suite A225 Atlanta, Georgia 30341 404-888-0530
M a r ke t R e s e a r ch a nd St r a t e g i c P l a n ni n g fo r No n - p r o fi t s Na t i o nw i d e
December 2, 2015 Jeff Andresen President & CEO YMCA of Greater Williamson County 1812 N Mays Round Rock, TX 78680-0819
Kevin Post Principal Counsilman-Hunsaker 10733 Sunset Office Dr. 4th Floor St. Louis, MO 63127
Dear Jeff and Kevin: I am pleased to submit the results of our market research study on opportunities for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA. This report provides forecasts for new membership units for the new YMCA at the proposed location. It contains detailed information on demographics, psychographics, and program interests of prospective members. Impact on existing nearby YMCAs was also explored. We have enjoyed working with you, your staff, and your volunteers. We pride ourselves on the level of service that we extend to our clients, and with that in mind, we hope that you will call on us if we can offer any guidance on implementing the report’s plan. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions. Respectfully Submitted,
Li Li Managing Partner enclosure
3577 Chamblee Tucker Road Suite A225 Atlanta, Georgia 30341 Tel: 404-888-0530 Fax: 404-881-9860
[email protected] www.foursquareresearch.com
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Table of Contents Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Methodology and Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Defining the Survey Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Findings among Area Residents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Membership Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Profile of Prospective Members . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Interest in Children’s and Family Programs among Prospective Members . . . 57 Interest in Programs for Adults among Prospective Members . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Interest in Aquatics for Children and Adults among Prospective Members . . . 71 Strategic Questions and Answers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Appendix: Program Revenue Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
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A FourSquare Market Study
2
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Table of Figures Figure 1.01 Summary of Forecasts for New and Transferring Membership Units by Pricing and Facility Options—2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Figure 1.02 Summary of Forecasts for New Membership Units—Five Year Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Figure 1.03 Summary of Forecasts for a New Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA— 2016 Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Figure 1.04 Summary of Usage among Prospective Members of a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Figure 1.05 Features Critical to the Success of a New Full-Facility Northeast Round Rock YMCA . . . 12 Figure 1.06 Features Critical to the Success of a New Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA. . . . . . . 13 Figure 3.01 Census Tract Map of the Targeted Survey Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Figure 3.02 Population Trends Analysis of the Targeted Survey Area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Figure 3.03 Household Growth Trends by Census Tract. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Figure 3.04 Household Growth Trends by Census Tract (Experian). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Figure 3.05 Household Growth Trends by Census Tract (Capital Area Council of Governments). . . . . . . 26 Figure 4.01 Awareness of the YMCA among Area Residents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Figure 4.02 Percentage of Area Residents Who Have Been a Member. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Figure 4.03 Image of the YMCA among Area Residents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 Figure 4.04 Residents’ Fitness Activities and Affiliations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Figure 4.05 How All Area Residents Evaluated Their Health and Wellness Choices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Figure 5.01 Second Location Preferences among Prospective Members . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Figure 5.02 Facility Features of a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Figure 5.03 Pricing Options. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Figure 5.04 Formula for Calculating the Adjusted Number of Households. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Figure 5.05 Formula for Calculating the Number of Area Residents that will Join. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Figure 5.06 Forecast of New Households with Interest in Joining a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Figure 5.07 Pricing/Facility Preference among Prospective Members. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Figure 5.08 Formula Used to Calculate Annual Revenue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Figure 5.09 Forecast of Annual Revenue Generated from New Memberships Units Sold for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Figure 5.10 Forecast of Current Member Households with Interest in Continuing at a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Figure 5.11 Pricing/Facility Preference among Transferring Current Members . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Figure 5.12 Summary of Forecasts for New and Transferring Membership Units by Pricing and Facility Options—2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Figure 5.13 Summary of Forecasts for New Membership Units—Five Year Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Figure 5.14 Summary of Forecasts for a New Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA— 2016 Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 3
A FourSquare Market Study Figure 5.15 Reasons Area Residents Are Not Interested in Joining . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Figure 5.16 Reasons Current Members Are Not Interested in Continuing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Figure 6.01 Age of Current and Prospective Adult Members and the General Population . . . . . . . . . . 53 Figure 6.02 Membership Categories of Current and Prospective Members . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Figure 6.03 Current and Prospective Members with Children Under Age 18 in Their Households. . . 55 Figure 6.04 Ethnic Background of Prospective Members. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Figure 6.05 Census Tract Locations of Prospective Members . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Figure 6.06 How Prospective Members Evaluated Their Health and Wellness Choices. . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Figure 7.01 Interest in Babysitting, Child Care, After-school, and Child Development Programs among Prospective Members. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Figure 7.02 Interest in Summer Day Camps among Prospective Members. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Figure 7.03 Interest in Sports Leagues for Children and Teenagers among Prospective Members. . . . 63 Figure 7.04 Interest in Sports and Recreation Programs for Children and Teenagers among Prospective Members. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Figure 7.05 Interest in Social and Recreational Programs for Pre-teens and Teens among Prospective Members. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Figure 7.06 Interest in Recreational Activities that Parents and Children Can Do Together among Prospective Members. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Figure 8.01 Interest in Fitness Activities for Adults among Prospective Members . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Figure 8.02 Interest in Fitness Activities for Adults (Continued). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 Figure 8.03 Interest in an Exercise Studio among Prospective Members. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Figure 8.04 Level of Interest in Wellness Programs among Prospective Members . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Figure 8.05 How Prospective Members Want to be Served. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Figure 9.01 Preferred Type of Pool for Children and Teens among Prospective Members . . . . . . . . . . 75 Figure 9.02 Preferred Type of Pool for Adults among Prospective Members. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Figure 9.03 Interest in Aquatic Programs for Children and Teens among Prospective Members. . . . . 77 Figure 9.04 Interest in Aquatic Activities for Adults among Prospective Members. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78 Figure 10.01 Factors that Could Increase or Decrease Forecasts of New Membership Units. . . . . . . . . 83 Figure 10.02 Summary of Usage among Prospective Members of a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Figure 10.03 Features Critical to the Success of a New Full-Facility Northeast Round Rock YMCA . . 87 Figure 10.04 Features Critical to the Success of a New Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA. . . . . . 88 Figure 11.01 Estimates of Program Revenue for a New Full-Facility Northeast Round Rock YMCA. . 91 Figure 11.02 Estimates of Program Revenue for a New Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA. . . . . . 92
4
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Chapter One Executive Summary
Executive Summary 5
A FourSquare Market Study
6 Executive Summary
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Executive Summary In order to determine potential for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA, FourSquare Research conducted both qualitative and quantitative research. This included in-depth telephone interviews with over 400 randomly-selected households that live in the targeted survey area but do not belong to any YMCA, and 200 current member households, 100 each at the Chasco YMCA and the Hutto YMCA. Based on the findings of the study, the Consultant offers the following key conclusions and recommendations: 1. The study revealed significant interest exists for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA. A total of 7.9% of all households expressed a great deal of interest in joining a new YMCA with all pricing and facility options at the proposed location. This is compared to the national average of 4.5% for a full facility YMCA and above and beyond the 7.9% (5.6% to Chasco and 2.3% to Hutto) of all area households that already belong to the YMCA. 2. Forecasts revealed that a new full-facility Northeast Round Rock YMCA would have minimal impact on the nearby Hutto YMCA, but significant impact on the Chasco YMCA. An Express YMCA could signficantly minimize the cannibalizing of the existing Chasco YMCA, therefore, should be considered. 3. Very low price sensitivity was revealed among prospective members. Of all prospective members, only 10% expressed interest at the 15% lower, branch-only rates. Therefore implementing 15% lower, branch-only rates is not recommended. 4. Findings revealed the community characteristics include an inactive population, a crowded marketplace that is still in need of services, strong growing population, and high awareness of the YMCA name. These characteristics would create opportunities and challenges for the new YMCA. 5. The study revealed the primary prospective member groups include aging baby-boomers, active older adults/seniors, and families with children, and many are health-seekers with desire for a “Third Place” at the new YMCA. 6. To attract the forecasted membership units, the Consultant recommends an indoor full facility of approximately 43,500 square feet or an Express facility of approximately 14,750 square feet at the proposed location. The tables on the following pages illustrate the summary of forecasts for new membership projections, program usage, and recommended space allocation for a new YMCA
Executive Summary 7
A FourSquare Market Study
Summary of Forecasts The table below summarizes the forecasts of new membership units and transferring units for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA by pricing and facility options. Please note typically the Consultant bases forecasts only on households with a great deal of interest, which are illustrated in the following table. Total revenue is calculated based on all units at the lower, current rates. The forecasts are based the total number of households projection for 2020 provided by the Capital Area Council of Governments.
2020 Forecasts
Current Rates
Plus 1st Choice
Plus 1st & 2nd Choice
15% Lower, Branch-Only Rates
Total
New Units
2,807
—
124
330
3,261
New Revenue
$1,458,517
—
$64,430
$145,728
$1,440,058*
Revenue per Unit
$520
—
$520
$442
$442
Chasco Transferring Units
174
244
174
—
592
Chasco Transferring Revenue
$142,590
$199,953
$142,590
—
$485,132
Chasco Revenue per Unit
$819
$819
$819
—
$819
Hutto Transferring Units
20
81
—
—
101
Hutto Transferring Revenue
$15,600
$63,180
—
—
$78,780
Hutto Revenue per Unit
$780
$780
—
—
$780
Total Units
3,001
325
298
330
3,954
Total Revenue
$1,616,707
$263,133
$207,020
$145,728
$2,003,970
Revenue per Unit
$539
$810
$695
$442
$507
Figure 1.01 Summary of Forecasts for New and Transferring Membership Units by Pricing and Facility Options—2020
8 Executive Summary
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA The following table provides forecasts of new membership units for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 if only current rates were offered and the top 1st and 2nd choices of additional features tested—an indoor warm-water shallow pool and an indoor multipurpose gymnasium—were included. The forecasts are calculated based on corresponding household projections provided by Capital Area Council of Government in each year.
2016 Forecasts—Year 1
Current Rates
Plus 1st choice
Plus 1st & 2nd choice
Total
New Units
2,550
—
113
2,663
New Revenue
$1,324,980
—
$58,715
$1,383,695
Revenue per Unit
$520
—
$520
$520
New Units
2,616
—
115
2,731
New Revenue
$1,359,274
—
$59,754
$1,419,028
Revenue per Unit
$520
—
$520
$520
New Units
2,683
—
118
2,801
New Revenue
$1,394,087
—
$61,313
$1,455,400
Revenue per Unit
$520
—
$520
$520
New Units
2,752
—
121
2,873
New Revenue
$1,429,939
—
$62,872
$1,492,811
Revenue per Unit
$520
—
$520
$520
New Units
2,807
—
124
2,931
New Revenue
$1,458,517
—
$64,430
1,522,948
Revenue per Unit
$520
—
$520
$520
2017 Forecasts—Year 2
2018 Forecasts—Year 3
2019 Forecasts—Year 4
2020 Forecasts—Year 5
Figure 1.02 Summary of Forecasts for New Membership Units—Five Year Projections
Executive Summary 9
A FourSquare Market Study The following table provides forecasts of new membership units and transferring units for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA without additional features tested in the study, this could severely limit the new YMCA’s ability in attracting family membership. Typically such a YMCA configuration is referred to as an Express YMCA. The forecasts are calculated based on corresponding household projections provided by Capital Area Council of Government in 2016, not including all new and transferring units for additional features as well as all units with a youth, a family with two adults and children, and a family with one adult and children membership.
2016 Forecasts
Without Family Memberships & Additional Features
New Units New Revenue Revenue per Unit Chasco Transferring Units Chasco Transferring Revenue Chasco Revenue per Unit Hutto Transferring Units Hutto Transferring Revenue Hutto Revenue per Unit Total Units Total Revenue Revenue per unit
2,091 $973,386 $466 21 $8,143 $390 4 $1,200 $ 300 2,116 $982,729 $464
Figure 1.03 Summary of Forecasts for a New Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA—2016 Projections
10 Executive Summary
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Program Usage of Major Features of a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA The following table shows the level of usage of facility features by programs among prospective members. Features of a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA Programs
Wellness/ Fitness Center
Group Exercise Studios
Adult Fitness
Very High
Very High
Indoor Indoor Indoor Cool Child Watch Multipurpose Multipurpose Warm Water Water Classrooms Gymnasium Family Pool Lap pool Babysitting High
Adult Aquatics
Youth/ Teen Center
Moderate
High
Adult Adventure Adult Sports Adult Recreation Nutrition and Weight Management
Very High
Stress and Relaxation
Very High
Rehab/Health Programs Women’s Programs
High High
Family Activities
Moderate
Programs for Children Ages 0–2
Moderate Low
Low
Low Moderate
Programs for Children Ages 3–5
Low
Low
Low
Low
Programs for Children Ages 6–9
Low
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate Low
Programs for Children Ages 10–13
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Programs for Children Ages 14–17
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Adult Rating Scale
Low
<15%
Children’s Rating Scale
Low
Moderate
15%–29%
Moderate
High
30%–44%
High
Very High
≥45%
Very High
Low Low <5%
5%–9% 10%–14% ≥15%
Figure 1.04 Summary of Usage among Prospective Members of a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Executive Summary 11
A FourSquare Market Study
Recommended Space Allocation for a New Full-Facility Northeast Round Rock YMCA The following table shows the recommended square footage of facility features for a new full-facility Northeast Round Rock YMCA. Please note this does not include additional features and shared uses for collaboration with the Round Rock ISD and the local hospital. Indoor Features Critical in Attracting New Membership Units for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Approximate Square Footage
Program Interest Findings
First-class wellness center that includes • a cardiovascular area of 3,500 sq. ft. • a free weights and strength-training equipment area of 4,000 sq. ft., including a 30-minute circuit training area • a designated workout area of 1,000 sq. ft. with more staff supervision for teens, beginners, and women • consulting areas/rooms of 500 sq. ft.
9,000
Figure 7.05, Figure 8.01 &, Figure 8.02
Three group exercise studios, one of 2,000 square feet for aerobics and group fitness classes, the second of 1,500 square feet for relaxation, dance, yoga, and tai chi, and the third of 800 square feet for indoor cycling
3,300
Figure 8.01 &, Figure 8.02
An indoor warm-water pool with • zero degree/beach entry for recreational swimming, lessons, and water aerobics • aquatic playground features such as splash pads and sprays • three lanes for lap swimming, and aqua walking and running • showers, lockers, and changing areas for men, women, and families
10,000
Figure 7.02 Figure 9.03, & Figure 9.04,
An indoor multipurpose activity center/gymnasium with half courts, dividers, retractable hoops, versatile flooring, and ample storage space for a variety of activities such as basketball, volleyball, gymnastics, summer day camps, and family night
7,500
Figure 7.02, Figure 7.04 &, Figure 7.05
Multipurpose classrooms with dividers and a sink/wet area for children’s creative arts programs and community meetings
500
Figure 7.02, Figure 7.04, Figure 7.05 & Figure 8.04
Child watch/baby-sitting area for infants and toddlers ages 0-5
500
Figure 7.01
Kidz Fun Zone with supervised features such as moonwalks and a climbing maze for children ages 6-9
1,000
Figure 7.01
Youth and teen center with TV, pool tables, Exergame, and seating for social activities (which can also be used for other programs when needed)
1,000
Figure 7.05
Members’ lounge/snack bar/social area/community program area
2,000
Figure 8.03
Subtotal Minimal planning factor, H/V/AC, bathrooms, halls, and offices (25%)
Total Indoor
34,800 8,700 43,500
Figure 1.05 Features Critical to the Success of a New Full-Facility Northeast Round Rock YMCA 12 Executive Summary
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Recommended Space Allocation for a New Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA The following table shows the recommended square footage of facility features for a new Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA without a pool and/or gym. It also has factored in the usage of current members who will be transferring from Chasco and Hutto YMCAs Indoor Features Critical in Attracting New Membership Units for a New Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Approximate Square Footage
Program Interest Findings
First-class wellness center that includes • a cardiovascular area of 1,500 sq. ft. • a free weights and strength-training equipment area of 2,000 sq. ft., including a 30-minute circuit training area • a designated workout area of 750 sq. ft. with more staff supervision for active older adults/seniors, beginners, and women • consulting areas/rooms of 250 sq. ft.
4,500
Figure 7.05, Figure 8.01 &, Figure 8.02
Two group exercise studios, one of 1,500 square feet for aerobics and group fitness classes and the other of 1,000 square feet for relaxation, dance, yoga, and tai chi
2,500
Figure 8.01 &, Figure 8.02
Multipurpose classrooms with dividers and a sink/wet area for children’s creative arts programs and community meetings
500
Figure 7.02, Figure 7.04, Figure 7.05 & Figure 8.04
Child watch/baby-sitting area
800
Figure 7.01
Locker rooms and showers for men and women
2,000
Figure 8.05
Members’ lounge/snack bar/social area/community program area
1,500
Figure 8.03
Subtotal Minimal planning factor, H/V/AC, bathrooms, halls, and offices (25%)
Total Indoor
11,800 2,950 14,750
Figure 1.06 Features Critical to the Success of a New Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Executive Summary 13
A FourSquare Market Study
14 Executive Summary
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Chapter Two Methodology and Scope
Methodology and Scope 15
A FourSquare Market Study
16 Methodology and Scope
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Methodology This study used the following methodology: • The qualitative research was conducted through discussions with staff and board representatives of the YMCA of Williamson County. Census tract analysis of current members at the existing Chasco YMCA and Hutto YMCA were conducted. A market audit of similar service providers was also conducted at this time. The responses and concerns in the qualitative phase were used toward the development of the survey instrument used in the quantitative phase. • The quantitative research in this study involved in-depth telephone interviews with —— 400 randomly-selected households in the targeted survey area that currently do not belong to a YMCA —— 100 randomly selected current members of the existing Chasco YMCA —— 100 randomly selected current members of the existing Hutto YMCA. Interviews were conducted in Spanish as needed. The boundaries of the targeted survey area are defined in the map on page 21. In addition to random sampling, a quota system was developed to ensure that the number of interviews completed in each census tract was proportionate to the number of households in each census tract. Also, the percentage of interviews with respondents ages 65 and older was controlled to be consistent with the percentage of seniors ages 65 and older in the general population. All current member interviews were controlled based on the existing membership breakdown. All respondents were asked to answer questions for themselves and on behalf of the household when applicable. All interviews were conducted September 23–October 4, 2015. The methodology used resulted in findings with a 95% confidence level and a statistical error of plus or minus 5.0%. The recommendations provided in this report are based on this methodology and on the experience of FourSquare Research, Inc., with over 700 similar market research studies with YMCAs nationwide.
Methodology and Scope 17
A FourSquare Market Study
Scope The study is designed to provide the following data: • Primary market penetration expectations (5-7 mile radius) for potential YMCA membership (number of membership units); projected market penetration at maturity based on population growth • Price points (membership rates) and related unit acquisition expectations specific to each price point • Potential program revenue and the programs desired by potential users • Facility requirements • Phased construction requirements, if applicable • Member cannibalization factors from existing YMCA facilities
18 Methodology and Scope
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Chapter Three Defining the Survey Area
Defining the Survey Area 19
A FourSquare Market Study
20 Defining the Survey Area
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Census Tract Map of the Area Targeted for the Survey The following map shows the census tracts in the targeted survey area.
New Georgetown Y d ll R Sh e
35
29
215.02
35
US Highway
79
State Route
29
Chasco Penetration
5%
Hutto Penetration
5%
215.06
8.9% 1.8%
215.08
01
Limmer Loop
208.06 7.0% 13.8%
79
79
Gattis School Rd
Mc N
eil Rd
Interstate
5.4% 1.0%
1.8% 26.8%
45 35
12.3%, 0.5%
YMCA Locations
112 CR
FM 3349
ett ld S
206.02 215.03 Brushy 205.05 Creek Round Rock
15.1%, 0.1%
Major Road
1 CR
St ple
215.07 7.6% 0.2%lers Blvd
O
Rd
sit
Hutto
CR 1 37
5
35
206.03
Ba ss
8.1% 0.2% lvd yB
208.05
130
Blvd
17
Sa m
07
215.04
er Univ
Whit
1 CR
685
R
6.3% 0.2%estone Blvd
214.03
FM
C
206.05
2.3% 0.2%
0.7% 1.6%
1.4% 1.3% 4.2% 0.3% Ma
35
206.04
29
208.03
214.01 iverGeorgetown R l rie Gab
0.6% 0.1%
43 FM 22
Census Tract
130
0 146 FM
San
201.10
New Round Rock Aquatic Center Y
Rd eir
FM 1460 Maple St
Blvd
29
N
W
sD r
215.05
201.12
am
CR 1 19
0.9% --%
Allia nce
W illi
21 4. 02
Liberty Hill
Blvd gan
258
0.4%, 0.2%
Lake Georgetown
ld Re Rona
C
d oR
8
d 25 Co R
gan Rea ald Ron
183
Hutto Y
7.6%, 0.2% 4.6%, 0.1% 6.1%, 0.1%
Chasco Y
Figure 3.01 Census Tract Map of the Targeted Survey Area
Defining the Survey Area 21
A FourSquare Market Study
Demographic and Population Trends Analysis of the Area Targeted for the Survey, 2014–2019 The tables on this and the following page detail the population trends in the targeted survey area for the years 2014–2019. This information is provided by the United States Census Bureau.
Summary of Demographics 1. Residential growth nearly twice the national average 2. Percentage of households with children above the national average 3. Percentage of adults 65 or older below the national average 4. Median household income well above the national average 5. Percentage of households with total annual household income less than $35,000 and less than $50,000 far below the national average 6. Percentage of households owned by occupants above the national average and rentals are below the national average, pointing to a stable community 2010 Census
2014 Estimates
2019 Projections
2014 Nat’l. Average
Total Population
104,186
110,442
119,786
4%
Total Households
34,855
37,410 40,798 9% growth from 2014-2019
5%
Total Population By Race White
76%
76%
76%
71%
African American
8%
8%
8%
13%
American Indian
1%
1%
1%
1%
Asian
4%
4%
4%
6%
Other/Multi-Races
12%
12%
12%
9%
Hispanic Origin*
28%
29%
30%
18%
Male
49%
49%
49%
49%
Female
51%
51%
51%
51%
Average Household Size
2.90
2.87
2.86
2.64
Percentage of Family Household
76%
77%
77%
67%
Total Population By Gender
Household
* Hispanic origin can be any race. Note: These figures are double-checked using DemographicsNow.com.
22 Defining the Survey Area
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Demographic and Population Trends Analysis (continued) 2010 Census Total Population by Age 0–5 years 5–9 years 10–14 years 15–19 years 20–24 years 25–34 years 35–44 years 45–54 years 55–64 years 65–74 years 75–84 years 85 + years General Income Data Median Household Income Average Household Income
9% 9% 8% 7% 6% 15% 17% 13% 9% 4% 2% 1%
2014 Estimates
8% 8% 8% 7% 6% 14% 17% 13% 9% 5% Age 65 and over 2% 1% Under Age 20
$74,363 $91,738
$80,571 $90,389
Household Income Distribution $0 – $14,999 $15,000 – $24,999 $25,000 – $34,999 $35,000 – $49,999 $50,000 – $74,999 $75,000 – $99,999 $100,000 – $149,999 $150,000 and over
6% 5% 7% 13% 22% 17% 19% 11%
5% 4% 6% 14% 21% 16% 20% 17%
Household Ownership Owned Rented Vacant
65% 28% 6%
68% 28% 4%
73%
69% 4% 0.8% 26%
Employment (Pop 16+) Civilian, Employed Civilian, Unemployed In Armed Forces Not in Labor Force
0.8% 26%
29%
2019 Projections
31%
8%
7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 11% 15% 14% 11% 6% 3% 1%
2014 Nat’l. Average
30%
27%
10%
13%
$86,475 $97,370
15%
4% 3% 5% 13% 18% 17% 18% 21%
$59,911 $84,396
12%
34% 14% 18% 12% 13% 9%
68% 28% 4%
58% 32% 10%
69% 4% 0.8% 26%
59% 3% 0.4% 37%
Copyright Market Statistics, Inc. 2014
Figure 3.02 Population Trends Analysis of the Targeted Survey Area
Defining the Survey Area 23
A FourSquare Market Study
Household Growth Trends by Census Tract, 2014–2019 (Survey Sampling, Inc.) The following table gives the household growth trends by census tract in the area targeted for the survey for the years 2014–2019. Census Tract
% of 2014 2019 Change Estimate Projection 2014-2019
2014 Median Income
Current Chasco Member Units
Current Hutto Penetration Penetration Member Units
201.10
1,438
1,569
9.1%
$101,332
8
0.6%
1
0.1%
201.12
1,152
1,256
9.0%
$101,739
10
0.9%
—
0.0%
205.05
966
1,054
9.1%
$113,892
119
12.3%
5
0.5%
206.02
1,848
2,015
9.0%
$82,242
141
7.6%
3
0.2%
206.03
2,724
2,970
9.0%
$142,559
410
15.1%
4
0.1%
206.04
1,689
1,843
9.1%
$90,867
39
2.3%
3
0.2%
206.05
2,320
2,529
9.0%
$101,393
146
6.3%
5
0.2%
208.03
1,506
1,642
9.0%
$71,983
11
0.7%
24
1.6%
208.05
2,169
2,365
9.0%
$77,249
39
1.8%
581
26.8%
208.06
730
796
9.0%
$79,892
51
7.0%
101
13.8%
214.01
2,569
2,802
9.1%
$67,740
36
1.4%
4
0.2%
214.02
1,645
1,794
9.1%
$38,288
6
0.4%
4
0.2%
214.03
1,219
1,330
9.1%
$48,069
16
1.3%
4
0.3%
215.02
1,732
1,889
9.1%
$51,711
104
6.0%
2
0.1%
215.03
1,700
1,854
9.1%
$46,901
79
4.6%
2
0.1%
215.04
2,185
2,383
9.1%
$96,677
177
8.1%
5
0.2%
215.05
2,661
2,902
9.1%
$72,208
162
6.1%
4
0.2%
215.06
1,045
1,139
9.0%
$84,417
56
5.4%
10
1.0%
215.07
3,534
3,854
9.1%
$71,570
268
7.6%
7
0.2%
215.08
2,578
2,812
9.1%
$81,250
230
8.9%
73
2.8%
Total/ Avg
37,410
40,798
9.1%
$80,571
2,108
5.6%
842
2.3%
Figure 3.03 Household Growth Trends by Census Tract 24 Defining the Survey Area
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Household Growth Trends by Census Tract, 2014–2019 (Experian) Census Tract
2015 Estimates
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 % of change Projections
201.10
1,503
1,525
1,547
1,570
1,593
1,616
7.3%
201.12
1,211
1,236
1,261
1,287
1,313
1,340
10.2%
205.05
950
981
1,013
1,045
1,079
1,114
16.2%
206.02
1,870
1,878
1,886
1,895
1,903
1,911
2.2%
206.03
2,870
3,025
3,188
3,359
3,540
3,731
26.9%
206.04
1,923
1,987
2,054
2,122
2,193
2,266
16.7%
206.05
2,277
2,368
2,463
2,561
2,663
2,770
20.0%
208.03
1,628
1,686
1,746
1,808
1,873
1,939
17.8%
208.05
2,376
2,496
2,622
2,755
2,895
3,041
25.3%
208.06
1,120
1,157
1,196
1,235
1,276
1,319
16.6%
214.01
2,769
2,861
2,956
3,055
3,157
3,262
16.6%
214.02
1,801
1,837
1,874
1,911
1,949
1,988
10.0%
214.03
1,360
1,392
1,424
1,458
1,492
1,527
11.7%
215.02
1,704
1,721
1,738
1,755
1,772
1,790
4.9%
215.03
1,760
1,760
1,760
1,759
1,759
1,759
-0.1%
215.04
2,583
2,751
2,929
3,119
3,322
3,537
32.4%
215.05
2,599
2,709
2,823
2,943
3,067
3,196
21.1%
215.06
1,050
1,094
1,141
1,189
1,239
1,292
21.1%
215.07
3,868
4,004
4,145
4,291
4,442
4,599
17.6%
215.08
2,925
3,084
3,251
3,428
3,614
3,810
27.1%
Total/Avg
40,147
41,551
43,017
44,546
46,141
47,807
17.5%
Figure 3.04 Household Growth Trends by Census Tract (Experian)
Defining the Survey Area 25
A FourSquare Market Study
Household Growth Trends by Census Tract, 2014–2019 (Capital Area Council of Governments) Census Tract
2015 HH
2020 Projections
% of Change
201.10
1,450
1,624
12%
201.12
1,140
1,264
11%
205.05
982
1,097
12%
206.02
1,838
2,043
11%
206.03
2,809
3,120
11%
206.04
1,919
2,133
11%
206.05
2,269
2,516
11%
208.03
1,527
1,724
13%
208.05
2,328
2,620
13%
208.06
1,242
1,397
12%
214.01
2,752
3,059
11%
214.02
1,734
1,933
11%
214.03
1,319
1,465
11%
215.02
1,727
1,938
12%
215.03
1,826
2,033
11%
215.04
2,441
2,732
12%
215.05
2,650
2,969
12%
215.06
1,091
1,209
11%
215.07
3,808
4,389
15%
215.08
2,655
2,969
12%
Total/Avg
39,507
44,234
12%
Figure 3.05 Household Growth Trends by Census Tract (Capital Area Council of Governments)
26 Defining the Survey Area
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Chapter Four Findings among Area Residents
Findings among Area Residents 27
A FourSquare Market Study
28 Findings among Area Residents
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Awareness of the YMCA among Area Residents The chart on the left shows the level of awareness of the YMCA among area residents. The list to the right shows which YMCAs they said they were aware of. Don’t know Maybe 1% 1%
No 46%
Chasco Family YMCA Hutto Family YMCA Twin Lakes Family YMCA Other (Austin and Waco)
Yes 52%
50% 31% 18% 1%
Figure 4.01 Awareness of the YMCA among Area Residents
Percentage of Area Residents Who Have Been a Member The chart on the left shows the percentage of area residents who say they have been a member of the YMCA. The list to the right shows of which YMCAs they said they had been members.
No 99%
Yes 1%
Chasco Family YMCA Hutto Family YMCA YMCA of Killeen
0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Figure 4.02 Percentage of Area Residents Who Have Been a Member
Findings among Area Residents 29
A FourSquare Market Study
Image of the YMCA among Area Residents The following graph shows how area residents would characterize the YMCA.
36%
A fitness facility
20%
A family organization
15%
A community organization
11%
A Christian organization
A youth organization A non-profit, charitable organization 0%
10% 8% 20%
40%
60%
Figure 4.03 Image of the YMCA among Area Residents
30 Findings among Area Residents
80%
100%
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Area Residents’ Activities and Affiliations The left column shows the percentage of residents currently involved in physical or recreational activities and lists the top activities. The right column shows the percentage of residents who currently belong to or are affiliated with a public or private health, fitness, or recreational facility, while the table lists the top options.
Affiliated 23% Not active 55%
Active 45%
Not affiliated 77%
Top Fitness and Recreation Activities*
(percentage of respondents/multiple responses) Walking/Running Workout equip/weights Swimming Aerobics Hiking/Camping Yoga/Stretching Cycling Dancing Fishing/Hunting Golf Racquetball
Tennis Various exercise
24% 12% 10% 5% 5% 5% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2%
2% 2%
* Crew, dancing, football, gymnastics, horseback riding, in-line skating, martial arts, physical work at job, physical work at job, racquetball, rock climbing, snow skiing, scuba, skateboarding, volleyball, and water sports were also cited.
Fitness and Recreation Affiliations
(percentage of respondents/multiple responses) For profit providers* 14% Anytime Fitness Gold's Gym LA Fitness Curves Fitness 19 Fuego Fitness Lean Images Planet Fitness 24 Hour Fitness 9 Round Other non-profit providers 9% Area parks and recreation Area country club Sports/Little League Work/home/school 4% Own equipment/work out at home Apartment/complex At work or school * Georgetown Fitness, Jazzercise, Lifetime Fitness, personal trainer, Snap, and the Yoga Room were also cited.
Active refers to those area residents who said they were currently involved in physical or recreational activities. Not active refers to those who said they weren’t currently involved in physical or recreational activities
Figure 4.04 Residents’ Fitness Activities and Affiliations Findings among Area Residents 31
A FourSquare Market Study
Health Statements of All Area Residents The following chart shows the responses of all area residents to the three statements given, indicating the presence of “health seekers.”
I am good at making everyday choices to be healthy and live well
37%
I try to make everyday choices to be healthy and live well, but struggle to do so
43%
I am not concerned with making everyday choices to be healthy and live well
12%
8%
Don't know
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Figure 4.05 How All Area Residents Evaluated Their Health and Wellness Choices
32 Findings among Area Residents
100%
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Chapter Five Membership Projections This data can be used to • Determine how many households will join • Develop a pricing strategy • Plan budgets based on membership and revenue forecasts
Membership Projections 33
A FourSquare Market Study
34 Membership Projections
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Overview To determine opportunities for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA, FourSquare Research conducted telephone interviews with 414 households in the targeted survey area. Among all households randomly selected, a total of 400 households were taken through the in-depth interview. Fourteen (14) households refused to participate in the in-depth interview for various reasons. About 25% of interviews were conducted with households with cell phones.
Location The survey of area residents was designed to test the level of interest in joining a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA at the proposed new location. The existing Chasco YMCA, Hutto YMCA, and the proposed Georgetown YMCA were also offered as a location choice. The description of each location is as follows: 1. Existing Chasco Family YMCA off I-35, on N Mays Street, between Old Settlers Road and Highway 79 2. Existing Hutto Family YMCA in Hutto, near The Home Depot and Walgreens 3. A new Georgetown YMCA in Georgetown, west of I-35, off Williams Drive and Shell Road 4. A new Northeast Round Rock YMCA, on A.W. Grimes Blvd at County Road 112, near Texas State University campus and Seton Medical Center Williamson Respondents that chose any existing YMCAs and the proposed Georgetown YMCA as their first choice were not taken through the in-depth survey. The graph on the following page illustrates the second location preference among households with at least a lot of interest in joining a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA, referred as prospective members later in this report. 50% 44%
Percentage
40%
3%0 24% 21% 20%
10% 5%
3%
3%
None
Don't know
0% Existing Chasco YMCA
Existing Proposed Hutto YMCA Georgetown YMCA
Any
Figure 5.01 Second Location Preferences among Prospective Members Membership Projections 35
A FourSquare Market Study
Facility Features The following table details the facilities, programs, and services included as part of membership described for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA.
Initial Bundle • A state-of-the-art fitness area with latest equipment • Exercise studios with free group exercises • A personalized fitness and health plan • Free baby-sitting and fun clubs for older kids while parents work out • Many activities for children and adults of all ages • Member prices for programs • Use of all other Ys in Williamson County At this phase, there are no pools or gyms.
Additional Features • Indoor warm water shallow pool with zero beach entry and lanes for fitness swimming and water aerobics, and play area for children • Indoor deep water, Olympic-sized 50-meter competition pool with either 20-22 short course lap lanes, or eight, 50-meter long course lap lanes for swim meets, deep water aquatic activities and diving • An indoor multipurpose gymnasium with courts for indoor sports Figure 5.02 Facility Features of a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
36 Membership Projections
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Pricing Options The following table details the pricing options quoted for each membership category for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA. Respondents were quoted monthly membership rates based on their preference for a particular membership category defined below. Lower rates were offered to respondents when they did not express a great deal of interest at higher rates. Branch-only rates allow members to have access to the new YMCA only.
Category
Higher Rates— Current Rates
Lower Rates— About 15% Lower, Branch-Only Rates
One-time Joining Fee
A youth/teen
$15
$13
—
A young adult ages 18–25 with student ID
$25
$21
—
An individual adult ages 18 or older
$40
$34
$50
A senior ages 62 or older
$25
$21
$50
A family with 2 adults and children under 17
$75
$64
$100
A family with 1 adult and children under 17
$68
$58
$75
An adult couple
$68
$58
$75
A senior couple
$35
$30
$50
Figure 5.03 Pricing Options
Membership Projections 37
A FourSquare Market Study
Determining the Number of Households to be Used in Forecasting To determine the number of area resident households to be used in forecasting, we subtract the number of households in the targeted survey area that currently belong to a YMCA from the projected number of households in the area for the Year 2020 based on projections provided by Capital Area Council of Governments (see Figure 5.04 below). Projected Number of Households in the Area for Year 2020
—
44,234*
Number of Households that Belong to a YMCA in the Area
=
Adjusted Number of Households
2,950
41,284
Figure 5.04 Formula for Calculating the Adjusted Number of Households
Current Member Analysis (see Figure 3.03, page 24) revealed there are 2,108 current member households from the Chasco YMCA and 842 households from the existing Hutto YMCA in the survey area. Excluding current member households in the targeted survey area, the adjusted number of households in the survey area that will be used in forecasting is 41,284. Given the percentage of households with a great deal of interest in an annual membership, we can determine the number of area resident households in the targeted survey area with the highest level of interest in an annual membership. We use the following formula (see Figure 5.05 below) to forecast the number of area resident households with a great deal of interest. % of Respondents with A Great Deal of Interest
X
Adjusted Number of Households
=
Number of Households with A Great Deal of Interest
Figure 5.05 Formula for Calculating the Number of Area Residents that will Join
*See Households Growth by Census Tract from Capital Area Council of Governments, page 26. Note: Additional sources used in verifying the population data included DemographicsNow.com/ Experian, and Survey Sampling Inc.
38 Membership Projections
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Forecast of New Households with Interest in Joining a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA The following table calculates the number of area resident households with a great deal of interest in joining a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA that currently do not belong to any YMCA. The table below also illustrates the forecast of area resident households with a lot of interest in joining—the second- highest level of interest in joining. The rates quoted to respondents are outlined in Figure 5.03, page 37. New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Pricing
Percentage of Household with A Great Deal of Interest
X
Adjusted Number of Households
=
Number of Households with A Great Deal of Interest
= 7.9% Current Rates
6.8%
X
41,284
=
2,807
Plus 1st Choice of Additional Features
—
X
41,284
=
—
Plus Both 1st & 2nd Choice of Additional Features*
0.3%
X
41,284
=
124
About 15% Lower, Branch Only Rates
0.8%
X
41,284
=
330
Forecast of New Households with A Great Deal of Interest in Joining a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA Forecast of New Households with A Lot of Interest in Joining a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA (0.8%)
3,261
330
* Half (50%) chose an indoor warm water shallow pool and the other half (50%) chose an indoor multipurpose gymnasium.
Figure 5.06 Forecast of New Households with Interest in Joining a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Membership Projections 39
A FourSquare Market Study
Pricing/Facility Preference among Prospective Members The graph below shows the preference of prospective members with a great deal of interest in all the pricing/facility options offered. About 15% lower, branch-only rates 10% Plus additional features 4%
Current rates 86%
Figure 5.07 Pricing/Facility Preference among Prospective Members
40 Membership Projections
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Forecast of Annual Revenue Generated from New Memberships Units Sold for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA The following table (Figure 5.08) illustrates the formula used to forecast the annual revenue generated from new memberships sold (not retained) at each before any scenarios are taken into consideration. Please note that the forecasts do not include revenues from joining fees nor program participation. Figure 5.09 on the following page illustrates the forecast of revenue from annual memberships for the new Northeast Round Rock YMCA by price point. Number of Households at Each Pricing Option
Forecast of households at each pricing option
X
Percentage of Prospective Members for Each Membership Category
X
Annual Rate
=
Revenue Generated
X
3% youth/teen
X
$
=
$
X
6% young adult ages 18-25 with student ID
X
$
=
$
X
41% individual adult ages 18 or older
X
$
=
$
X
23% senior ages 62 or older
X
$
=
$
X
12% family with 2 adults and children under 17
X
$
=
$
X
3% family with 1 adult and children under 17
X
$
=
$
X
12% adult couple
X
$
=
$
X
0% senior couple
X
$
=
$
Forecast of Annual Revenue Generated from New Memberships
$
Figure 5.08 Formula Used to Calculate Annual Revenue
Membership Projections 41
A FourSquare Market Study
$1,500,000
$1,458,517
$1,200,000
$900,000
$600,000
$300,000
$145,728 $64,430 0
Current rates
Plus additional features
About 15% lower branch-only rates
Figure 5.09 Forecast of Annual Revenue Generated from New Memberships Units Sold for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
42 Membership Projections
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Forecast of Current Member Households of the Chasco YMCA and Hutto YMCA with Interest in Continuing at a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA The following table calculates the number of current member households at the existing Chasco YMCA and Hutto YMCA with a great deal of interest in continuing their memberships at a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA. The table below also illustrates the forecast of current member households with a lot of interest in continuing—the second highest level of interest in continuing. Total current member units were from the lists provided by the YMCA. Existing Chasco YMCA
Options
Percentage of Members with A Great Deal of Interest
X
Total Number of Current Member Units
=
Number of Continuing Current Member Units
= 17.0% Current Rates
5.0%
X
3,483
=
174
Plus 1st Choice of Additional Features
7.0%
X
3,483
=
244
Plus Both 1st & 2nd Choice of Additional Features*
5.0%
X
3,483
=
174
About 15% Lower, Branch Only Rates
—
X
3,483
=
—
Forecast of Current Chasco Member Households with A Great Deal of Interest in Continuing at a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
592
Forecast of Current Chasco Member Households with A Lot of Interest in Continuing at a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA (0%)
—
Continued on next page *Three-quarters (75%) chose an indoor warm water shallow pool, 17% chose an indoor multipurpose gymnasium, and 8% chose an indoor deep-water Olympic-sized 50 meter competition pool.
Figure 5.10 Forecast of Current Member Households with Interest in Continuing at a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Membership Projections 43
A FourSquare Market Study Continue from previous page
Existing Hutto YMCA
Options
Percentage of Members with A Great Deal of Interest
X
Total Number of Current Member Units
=
Number of Continuing Current Member Units
= 5.0% Current Rates
1.0%
X
2,030
=
20
Plus 1st Choice of Additional Features
4.0%
X
2,030
=
81
Plus Both 1st & 2nd Choice of Additional Features*
—
X
2,030
=
—
About 15% Lower, Branch Only Rates
—
X
2,030
=
—
Forecast of Current Hutto Member Households with A Great Deal of Interest in Continuing at a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
101
Forecast of Current Hutto Member Households with A Lot of Interest in Continuing at the New Northeast Round Rock (0.0%)
—
*Half (50%) chose an indoor warm water shallow pool and the other half (50%) chose an indoor deep water, Olympic-sized competition pool.
Figure 5.10 Forecast of Current Member Households with Interest in Continuing at a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA (continued)
44 Membership Projections
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Pricing/Facility Preference among Transferring Members The graph below shows the preference of current members with a great deal of interest in transferring to a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA by pricing/facility options offered.
Transferring members from Hutto
Transferring members from Chasco
0%
20%
80%
29%
20%
71%
40%
Current rates
60%
80%
100%
Plus additional features
Figure 5.11 Pricing/Facility Preference among Transferring Current Members
Membership Projections 45
A FourSquare Market Study
Summary of Forecasts The table below summarizes the forecasts of new membership units and transferring units for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA by pricing and facility options. Please note typically the Consultant bases forecasts only on households with a great deal of interest, which are illustrated in the following table. Total revenue is calculated based on all units at the lower, current rates. The forecasts are based the total number of households projection for 2020 provided by the Capital Area Council of Governments.
2020 Forecasts
Current Rates
Plus 1st Choice
Plus 1st & 2nd Choice
15% Lower, Branch-Only Rates
Total
New Units
2,807
—
124
330
3,261
New Revenue
$1,458,517
—
$64,430
$145,728
$1,440,058*
Revenue per Unit
$520
—
$520
$442
$442
Chasco Transferring Units
174
244
174
—
592
Chasco Transferring Revenue
$142,590
$199,953
$142,590
—
$485,132
Chasco Revenue per Unit
$819
$819
$819
—
$819
Hutto Transferring Units
20
81
—
—
101
Hutto Transferring Revenue
$15,600
$63,180
—
—
$78,780
Hutto Revenue per Unit
$780
$780
—
—
$780
Total Units
3,001
325
298
330
3,954
Total Revenue
$1,616,707
$263,133
$207,020
$145,728
$2,003,970
Revenue per Unit
$539
$810
$695
$442
$507
Figure 5.12 Summary of Forecasts for New and Transferring Membership Units by Pricing and Facility Options—2020
46 Membership Projections
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA As illustrated in Figure 5.07, page 40 and Figure 5.11, page 45, low price sensitivity among both prospective members and transferring current members was revealed. The following table provides forecasts of new membership units for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 if only current rates were offered and the top 1st and 2nd choices of additional features tested—an indoor warm-water shallow pool and an indoor multipurpose gymnasium—were included. The forecasts are calculated based on corresponding household projections provided by Capital Area Council of Government in each year.
2016 Forecasts—Year 1
Current Rates
Plus 1st choice
Plus 1st & 2nd choice
Total
New Units
2,550
—
113
2,663
New Revenue
$1,324,980
—
$58,715
$1,383,695
Revenue per Unit
$520
—
$520
$520
New Units
2,616
—
115
2,731
New Revenue
$1,359,274
—
$59,754
$1,419,028
Revenue per Unit
$520
—
$520
$520
New Units
2,683
—
118
2,801
New Revenue
$1,394,087
—
$61,313
$1,455,400
Revenue per Unit
$520
—
$520
$520
New Units
2,752
—
121
2,873
New Revenue
$1,429,939
—
$62,872
$1,492,811
Revenue per Unit
$520
—
$520
$520
New Units
2,807
—
124
2,931
New Revenue
$1,458,517
—
$64,430
1,522,948
Revenue per Unit
$520
—
$520
$520
2017 Forecasts—Year 2
2018 Forecasts—Year 3
2019 Forecasts—Year 4
2020 Forecasts—Year 5
Figure 5.13 Summary of Forecasts for New Membership Units—Five Year Projections
Membership Projections 47
A FourSquare Market Study As illustrated in Figure 5.12, page 46, a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA with both 1st and 2nd choices of additional features could have much higher cannibalization on the existing Chasco and Hutto YMCAs than a facility without. The following table provides forecasts of new membership units and transferring units for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA without additional features tested in the study, this could severely limit the new YMCA’s ability in attracting family memberships. Typically, such a YMCA configuration is referred to as an Express YMCA. The forecasts are calculated based on corresponding household projections provided by Capital Area Council of Government in 2016, not including all new and transferring units for additional features as well as all units with a youth, a family with two adults and children, and a family with one adult and children membership.
2016 Forecasts
Without Family Memberships & Additional Features at Current Rates
New Units New Revenue
2,091 $973,386
Revenue per Unit Chasco Transferring Units Chasco Transferring Revenue Chasco Revenue per Unit Hutto Transferring Units Hutto Transferring Revenue Hutto Revenue per Unit Total Units Total Revenue Revenue per unit
$466 21 $8,143 $390 4 $1,200 $ 300 2,116 $982,729 $464
Figure 5.14 Summary of Forecasts for a New Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA—2016 Projections
48 Membership Projections
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Reasons Area Residents Are Not Interested in Joining The following table shows the reasons why area residents who do not currently belong to a YMCA are not interested in joining a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA. Response Item
Percentage of Those Not Interested (Multiple Responses OK)
Lack of Interest/Personal Barriers Wouldn’t use
37%
Just not interested
29%
No time
11%
Health problems
4%
Too old
4%
Not into fitness
4%
Don’t like gyms/crowds
2%
Former members
1%
Satisfied with Current Affiliation/Situation Satisfied where I currently belong
17%
Prefer outdoor activities
4%
Own equipment/exercise at home
2%
Cost-Related Costs too much/can’t afford it
1%
Location Related Location not convenient
1%
Moving/visiting
1%
Others Would like to see the Y first
1%
No kids
1%
All others received less than 1%, including only interested in programs, lack of specific features/programs (group exercise classes), and can’t get there/transportation.
Figure 5.15 Reasons Area Residents Are Not Interested in Joining
Membership Projections 49
A FourSquare Market Study
Reasons Current Members Are Not Interested in Continuing The following table shows the reasons given by current members who are not interested in continuing their membership.
Reasons Cited
Percentage of Those Not Interested (Multiple Responses OK) Chasco
Hutto
—
50%
Couldn’t make or find the time to go to the Y
50%
—
Intended to start a new workout program but it didn’t happen
17%
—
Use Other YMCAs (Twin Lakes, Burnet, & Cedar Park)
17%
50%
Problems with staff
16%
—
Moving out of the area
Figure 5.16 Reasons Current Members Are Not Interested in Continuing
50 Membership Projections
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Chapter Six Profile of Prospective Members This data can be used to • Develop a marketing plan targeting specific member groups
Profile of Current and Prospective Members 51
A FourSquare Market Study
52 Profile of Current and Prospective Members
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Prospective members are area households with at least a lot of interest in joining a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA.
Age of Current and Prospective Members The following table and graph show the ages of adult current and prospective members and the general population. Age
Prospective Members
Current Members Chasco
Current Members Hutto
—
—
2%
2%
Ages 18–19
General Population
Ages 20–24
3%
—
—
6%
Ages 25–34
20%
11%
31%
14%
Ages 35–44
15%
59%
31%
17%
Ages 45–54
15%
6%
6%
13%
Ages 55–64
41%
12%
6%
9%
Ages 65–74
—
—
5%
5%
Ages 75+
—
6%
—
3%
60% Prospective members Chasco Y members Hutto Y members General population
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 18-19
20-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65–74
75+
6% of prospective members, 6% of Chasco YMCA members, and 19% of Hutto YMCA members declined to answer.
Figure 6.01 Age of Current and Prospective Adult Members and the General Population Profile of Current and Prospective Members 53
A FourSquare Market Study
Membership Categories of Current and Prospective Members The following chart shows the membership categories preferred by current and prospective members.
A youth/teen
3%
Prospective members Chasco members
A young adult ages 18-25 with student ID
6%
Hutto members
41%
An individual adult ages 18 or older
6%
23% 6%
A senior ages 62 or older
20%
12% A family with 2 adults and children under 17
65% 80%
A family with 1 adult and children under 17
3%
An adult couple
0%
23%
12% 20%
40%
60%
80%
Figure 6.02 Membership Categories of Current and Prospective Members
54 Profile of Current and Prospective Members
100%
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Percentage of Current and Prospective Members with Children in the Household The following graphs show the percentage of current and prospective members who said they had children under age 18 in their households. Prospective Members
Refused 5%
Chasco YMCA Members
No 6%
Hutto YMCA Members
Refused 6% No 20%
No 77%
Yes 18% Yes 88%
Yes 80%
Note: Nationally, 34% of all households have children under age 18 in the household.
Figure 6.03 Current and Prospective Members with Children Under Age 18 in Their Households
Profile of Current and Prospective Members 55
A FourSquare Market Study
Ethnic Background of Prospective Members The following chart shows the ethnic background of prospective members.
70% 65%
Caucasian
55%
3% 23%
Hispanic
16%
3% Multiethnic
6% 7%
12%
Latino
6% African-American
Prospective members
3%
Chasco members Central European/Russian
Hutto members
3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Note: 3% of prospective members declined to answer.
Figure 6.04 Ethnic Background of Prospective Members 56 Profile of Current and Prospective Members
80%
100%
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Census Tract Locations of Prospective Members The following map defines the census tract locations of prospective members.
New Georgetown Y d ll R
01 1 CR
St ple
Rd
215.02
215.06
lvd
206.02 215.03 Brushy 205.05 Creek Round Rock
Limmer Loop
208.06
215.08
79
79
FM 3349
Old
B lers Sett
112 CR
CR 1 37
35
Hutto
Blvd
Blvd
215.07
208.05
130
Gattis School Rd
Mc N
Census Tract
07
CR 1 19
Blvd tone
sity
eil Rd
New Round Rock Aquatic Center Y
er Univ
206.03
Ba ss
1 CR
685
Sa m
214.03 215.04
206.05 es Whit
Ma
35
29
208.03
FM
5
29
214.01 iverGeorgetown R l rie Gab
206.04
43 FM 22
17
130
0 146 FM
gan Rea ald Ron
N
San
201.10 R
Rd eir
FM 1460 Maple St
Blvd
29
C
W
sD r
21 4. 02
201.12
am
215.05
Blvd gan
Liberty Hill
35
W illi
Allia nce
ld Re
58 d2
Lake Georgetown
Rona
R Co
8
d 25 Co R
Sh e
183
Major Road
45 35
YMCA Locations Interstate
35
US Highway
79
State Route
29
Hutto Y
1% of Prospective Members
Note: Prospective member households are plotted at random within the appropriate census tracts and do not represent actual addresses. Each dot represents about 1.0% of prospective members.
Figure 6.05 Census Tract Locations of Prospective Members
Profile of Current and Prospective Members 57
A FourSquare Market Study
Health Statements of Prospective Members The following chart compares the responses of prospective members and area residents to the three statements given, indicating the presence of “health seekers.”
37%
I am good at making everyday choices to be healthy and live well
12%
43%
I try to make everyday choices to be healthy and live well, but struggle to do so
68%
12%
I am not concerned with making everyday choices to be healthy and live well
20%
8%
Don't know
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Figure 6.06 How Prospective Members Evaluated Their Health and Wellness Choices
58 Profile of Current and Prospective Members
100%
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Chapter Seven Interest in Children’s and Family Programs among Prospective Members
This data can be used to • Prioritize program offerings • Understand the size of each program • Plan facility features based on program interest
Interest in Children’s and Family Programs 59
A FourSquare Market Study
60 Interest in Children’s and Family Programs
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Interest in Babysitting, Child Care, After-School, or Child Development Programs among Prospective Members The following table shows the level of interest in child care, after-school, or child development programs among prospective members with children ages infant–9 in the household. Babysitting, child care, after-school, or child development programs*
Infant–2
3–5
6–9
A kids’ club with supervised fun features for different age groups while parents work out
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Low
Very Low
Low
Very Low
Low
Very Low
Parents’ Night Out fun program for children at $15/child Social and exercise program for stay-at-home moms Licensed after-school programs 5 days/week at the school for $65/week Very Low = <1%
Low = 1%–4%
Moderate = 5%–9%
High = 10%–14%
Very High = 15%+
* Baby-sitting while parents work out and Y arts programs with crafts, plays, story time and movement activities were also tested and received insignificant interest.
Figure 7.01 Interest in Babysitting, Child Care, After-school, and Child Development Programs among Prospective Members
Interest in Children’s and Family Programs 61
A FourSquare Market Study
Interest in Summer Day Camps among Prospective Members The following table shows the level of interest in different activities for summer day camps at $115/week among prospective members with children under 18 in the household.
Summer day camp activities
3–5
6–9
10–13
Traditional summer day camp with swimming, games, and arts and crafts
Low
Very Low
Moderate
Full-day sports camp*
Very Low
Low
Low
Creative arts camp with drawing, drama, and music
Very Low
Low
Low
Learning lab camp with lessons in computers, math, and science
Very Low
Very Low
Low
Very Low
Moderate
Very Low
Teen adventure camp with hiking, high ropes courses, and water sports Very Low = <1%
Low = 1%–4%
Moderate = 5%–9%
High = 10%–14%
14-17
Very Low
Very High = 15%+
* There was low interest in flag football for 6–9 year olds and low interest in baseball/softball for 10–13 year olds.
Figure 7.02 Interest in Summer Day Camps among Prospective Members
62 Interest in Children’s and Family Programs
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Interest in Sports Leagues for Children and Teenagers among Prospective Members The following table shows the level of interest in free sports leagues for children and teens.
Indoor sports leagues*
3–5
6–9
10–13
14–17
Basketball
Very Low
Moderate
Very Low
Very Low
Racquetball
Very Low
Low
Low
Very Low
Roller hockey
Very Low
Low
Low
Very Low
3–5
6–9
10–13
14–17
Flag football
Very Low
Moderate
Low
Very Low
Baseball
Very Low
Low
Low
Very Low
Softball
Very Low
Very Low
Low
Very Low
Outdoor sports leagues*
Very Low = <1% Low = 1%–4% Moderate = 5%–9% High = 10%–14% Very High = 15%+ * All other sports leagues received insignificant interest.
Figure 7.03 Interest in Sports Leagues for Children and Teenagers among Prospective Members
Interest in Children’s and Family Programs 63
A FourSquare Market Study
Interest in Sports and Recreation Programs for Children and Teenagers among Prospective Members The following table shows the level of interest in sports and recreation programs for children and teens at $80 for an 8-week sessions among prospective members with children.
Sports and recreation programs
3–5
6–9
10–13
Creative arts courses such as drawing, drama, and music
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Dance classes such as ballet, tap or jazz
Low
Very Low
Very Low = <1%
Low = 1%–4%
Moderate = 5%–9%
High = 10%–14%
Very High = 15%+
Figure 7.04 Interest in Sports and Recreation Programs for Children and Teenagers among Prospective Members
64 Interest in Children’s and Family Programs
14–17
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Interest in Social and Recreational Programs for Pre-teens and Teens among Prospective Members The following chart shows the level of interest in social and recreational activities for older children and teens among prospective members with children under age 18 in their households.
Social and Recreational Programs for Children and Teens
10–13
14-17
A teen center with social and play areas and a homework station
Low
Low
A multi-media center with access to technology such as sound mixing and computer graphic design
Low
Low
Fitness classes such as yoga, kickboxing, and weight training techniques
Low
Low
Teen nights with movies, food, and dancing
Low
Very Low
Very Low = <1%
Low = 1%–4%
Moderate = 5%–9%
High = 10%–14%
Very High = 15%+
Figure 7.05 Interest in Social and Recreational Programs for Pre-teens and Teens among Prospective Members
Interest in Children’s and Family Programs 65
A FourSquare Market Study
Interest in Recreational Activities that Parents and Children Can Do Together among Prospective Members The following graph shows the level of interest in recreational activities that parents and children can do together.
Family Fun Night at the Y with themes such as pool parties, movies, and games
Yes
9% 6%
Maybe
Parent/child camping programs 6% such as Adventure Guides
Family Prime Time where every Friday between 5-8 PM the Y is dedicated to family activities 6% such as sports, arts, crafts, games, swimming, and food
Fitness programs for families, such as family yoga, cardio dance, cycling, soccer
0%
3%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Figure 7.06 Interest in Recreational Activities that Parents and Children Can Do Together among Prospective Members
66 Interest in Children’s and Family Programs
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Chapter Eight Interest in Programs for Adults among Prospective Members Note: When percentages are presented in graphs on the following pages, the percentages represent the number of membership units that expressed an interest in this activity. (e.g., 10% = 10% x 2,152 units = 215 units)
Interest in Programs for Adults 67
A FourSquare Market Study
68 Interest in Programs for Adults
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Interest in Fitness Activities for Adults among Prospective Members The following graph shows the level of interest in fitness activities for adults among prospective members.
Free weights and strength-training equipment
Kickboxing, Zumba, and indoor cycling
71%
Cardiovascular area with activities to strengthen your heart and lungs, where treadmills, bikes, and elliptical machines are connected to TVs
68%
Classes that combine strength training with stretching or cardiovascular exercise, such as Pilates and Les Mill Body Pump
20%
40%
12%
9%
29%
50%
Yes
0%
6%
79%
Maybe
60%
80%
100%
Figure 8.01 Interest in Fitness Activities for Adults among Prospective Members
Interest in Programs for Adults 69
A FourSquare Market Study
Interest in Fitness Activities for Adults (Continued) The following graph shows the level of interest in fitness activities for adults among prospective members.
Activities that reduce stress like tai chi and different types of yoga
44%
Strength training program for women
41%
Cardio movie theatre where you can watch a movie while working out Specialty training such as TRX Suspension Training and Intensity Interval Training at $64 for 8-week 0%
29%
41%
35%
50%
21%
20%
Yes
35%
40%
Maybe
60%
Figure 8.02 Interest in Fitness Activities for Adults (Continued)
70 Interest in Programs for Adults
80%
100%
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Interest in an Exercise Studio among Prospective Members The following graph shows the level of interest in an exercise studio with unlimited group exercise among prospective members.
Exercise studio with unlimited group exercise
47%
Yes
0%
20%
40%
41%
Maybe
60%
80%
100%
Figure 8.03 Interest in an Exercise Studio among Prospective Members
Interest in Wellness Programs among Prospective Members The following graph shows the level of interest in wellness programs among prospective members.
Total health and wellness programs with local health organizations, such as weight management classes and fitness programs for managing chronic diseases such as diabetes and arthritis 0%
65%
20%
40%
60%
Yes
6%
Maybe
80%
100%
Figure 8.04 Level of Interest in Wellness Programs among Prospective Members
Interest in Programs for Adults 71
A FourSquare Market Study
How Prospective Members Want to be Served The following graph shows the level of interest in features tailored for a more personal experience among prospective members.
A lounge area with Wi Fi for social gathering that serves coffee and healthy snacks
71%
Working out with a group of adults at your fitness level
71%
A personalized health and fitness plan based on your goals and monitored by Y staff
0%
29%
53%
Online access that provides all information about nutrition, fitness and health with links to current YMCA programs
29%
35%
20%
40%
60%
Figure 8.05 How Prospective Members Want to be Served
72 Interest in Programs for Adults
3%
18%
59%
Having Y staff offer you advice on proper workout techniques
15%
Yes Maybe
80%
100%
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Chapter Nine Interest in Aquatics for Children and Adults among Prospective Members
Interest in Aquatics for Children and Adults 73
A FourSquare Market Study
74 Interest in Aquatics for Children and Adults
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Preferred Type of Pool for Children and Teens among Prospective Members The following table shows the preferred type of pool for children and teens among prospective members. The choices given were: a warm water shallow pool with zero beach entry and lanes for fitness swimming and water aerobics, and play area for children; a deep water, Olympic-sized 50-meter competition pool with either 20-22 short course lap lanes, or eight, 50-meter long course lap lanes for swim meets, deep water aquatics activities and diving; and a therapy pool for water therapy.
Warm water, shallow pool
Deep water, olympic-sized competition pool
Both
0%
3%
6%
3%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Figure 9.01 Preferred Type of Pool for Children and Teens among Prospective Members
Interest in Aquatics for Children and Adults 75
A FourSquare Market Study
Preferred Type of Pool for Adults among Prospective Members The following table shows the preferred type of pool for children and teens among prospective members. The choices given were: a warm water shallow pool with zero beach entry and lanes for fitness swimming and water aerobics, and play area for children; a deep water, Olympic-sized 50-meter competition pool with either 20-22 short course lap lanes, or eight, 50-meter long course lap lanes for swim meets, deep water aquatics activities and diving; and a therapy pool for water therapy.
40%
Warm water, shallow pool
Deep water, olympic-sized competition pool
Therapy pool
Either one
0%
20%
16%
24%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Figure 9.02 Preferred Type of Pool for Adults among Prospective Members
76 Interest in Aquatics for Children and Adults
100%
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Interest in Aquatic Programs for Children and Teens among Prospective Members The following table shows the level of interest in aquatic programs for children and teens among prospective members.
Activities in the pool
3–5
6–9
10–13
14–17
Recreational swimming using water playground features
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Low
Very Low
Moderate
Moderate
Very Low
Low
Very Low
Very Low
Swim lessons at about $55 for an 8-week session Water sports such as water volleyball and synchronizing swimming at about $55 for an 8-week session Swim teams at $185 for a month Very Low = <1%
Low = 1%–4%
Moderate = 5%–9%
High = 10%–14%
Very High = 15%+
* Parent and infant swim classes at about $55 for an 8-week session, lifeguard training at $225 for an 8-week session, and scuba diving at $225 for an 8-week session were also tested and received insignificant interest.
Figure 9.03 Interest in Aquatic Programs for Children and Teens among Prospective Members
Interest in Aquatics for Children and Adults 77
A FourSquare Market Study
Interest in Aquatic Activities for Adults The following graph shows interest in aquatic activities among prospective adult members.
41%
Lap swimming
Yes Maybe 38%
Aqua running and walking
32%
Water aerobics
Water-based therapeutic exercise
29%
Swim teams and Masters swimming classes at $35/month Scuba diving at $225 for an 8-week session
18%
15%
Swimming lessons at $55 for an 8-week session
3%
Deep water aquatic boot camp at $55 for an 8-week session
3%
0%
3%
6%
3%
3%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Figure 9.04 Interest in Aquatic Activities for Adults among Prospective Members
78 Interest in Aquatics for Children and Adults
100%
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Chapter Ten Strategic Questions and Answers
Strategic Questions and Answers 79
A FourSquare Market Study
80 Strategic Questions and Answers
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Strategic Questions and Answers The Consultant recommends that in order to meet the forecasts for new membership units the leaders of a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA and the YMCA of Williamson County should carefully consider the answers to all of the following questions: 1. Does additional interest exist for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA? 2. Would a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA severely cannibalize the existing Chasco and Hutto YMCAs? 3. Should a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA consider new pricing strategies? 4. Does the study reveal characteristics of the community that are critical to success? 5. Are there factors that could increase or decrease the forecasts of new membership units? 6. Who are prospective members of a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA? 7. Are there recommendations for facility development of a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA?
1. Does additional interest exist for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA? Yes, significantly higher interest than the national average Findings revealed significant interest for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA at the proposed location. As illustrated in Figure 5.06, page 39, of all households that currently do not belong to a YMCA in the area targeted for the study, a total of 7.9% of all households expressed a great deal of interest in joining a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA, translating into 3,261 households. A great deal of interest is the highest level on the interest intensity scale of 0 to 4, where 0 means zero interest and 4 means a great deal of interest. Moreover, another 0.8% had a lot of interest in joining a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA, translating into another 330 households. Please note that the Consultant typically bases forecasts only on those with a great deal of interest. Historically the number of households with a lot of interest in joining is an indicator of how fast a YMCA can reach the forecast within 12–18 months of its opening, how likely a YMCA is to maintain the membership level after the first 12–18 months, and how likely it is that a YMCA could exceed the forecast. Based on the Consultant’s experience, the ideal ratio between the two levels is 1:1. In a community that has existing YMCA facilities, the ratio tends to skew towards a great deal of interest. In other words, most people are familiar with the Y and have made up their minds about whether to join the YMCA, and therefore not many people “waiting in the wing”. Based on the current membership roster provided by the Y and the analysis in Figure 3.03, page 24, 7.9% of all households in the survey area already belong to the existing Chasco YMCA (5.6%) and Hutto YMCA (2.3%) nearby. The potential new interest means the YMCA could serve up to 15.8% of all area households, a level more than three times the national average of 4.5%. These results indicate interest and support exists for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA at the proposed location. Please note these numbers forecasted represent memberships sold, not retained, during the first 12–18 months after the new facility is built and recommendations in the report are followed. It includes all facility and pricing options tested in the study, but does not exclude prospective members who may terminate their memberships. It therefore should not be interpreted to mean that a YMCA will definitely have and maintain a certain number of members.
Strategic Questions and Answers 81
A FourSquare Market Study
2. Would a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA severely cannibalize the existing Chasco and Hutto YMCAs? Yes on Chasco YMCA, not so much on Hutto YMCA Interviews with 100 randomly-selected current member households at each of the Chasco YMCA and Hutto YMCA were also conducted. As illustrated in Figure 5.10, page 43-44, only 5.0% of the Hutto YMCA, or 101 member households, expressed a great deal of interest in continuing at the new Northeast Round Rock YMCA but 17.0% of the Chasco YMCA, or 592 member households expressed the same level of interest. Typically when an existing YMCA births a new branch, it is not usual to see 10%–15% of current members transferring to the new YMCA. Based on the consultant’s experience with over 700 similar YMCA studies, a cannibalization rate of less than 15% is healthy and the existing facility can typically recover the transferring units through new acquisition. Findings suggest the new Northeast Round Rock YMCA would only have small impact on the existing Hutto YMCA, but much higher impact on the Chasco YMCA.
3. Should the YMCA consider new pricing strategies? No The study revealed low price sensitivity among prospective members. As illustrated in Figure 5.07, of all prospective members, the vast majority (90%) of prospective members expressed a great deal of interest at the higher, current rates, and the remaining 10% at the 15% lower, branch-only rates. Knowing the 2014 median household income in the survey area is $86,475 such low price-sensitivity to a monthly family rate of $75 is not surprising. Based on the findings, considering the 15% lower, branch-only rates is not necessary.
4. Does the study reveal characteristics of the community that are critical to the success of a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA? Yes The study also revealed the following characteristics of households in the survey area that are important for the success of a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA: • The general population is physically inactive, and the majority is ill-equipped with knowledge of healthy living. Less than half (45%) of households indicated they currently engaged in any type of physical activity, lower than the current national average of 50%. Moreover, only 37% chose the statement I am good at every day choices to be healthy and live well, the rest are either struggling to do so or another 8% don’t know. Motivating and serving a population ill-equipped with knowledge of healthy living requires more dedicated efforts. • Many for-profit providers already exist in a community that still needs services. Less than a quarter (23%) of households said they already belong to or participate in some type of nonprofit or for-profit fitness, recreation, sports club or facility, below the national average of 25%. However a total of sixteen (16) names of for-profit providers were mentioned, serving a combined 14% of all households, which is much higher at the national average of 8%-9%. Moreover, area parks and recreation is strong and serving 6% of all area households. In order to continue to better serve the community, the YMCA needs to provide a state-of-the-art facility with top-notch quality programs and services, targeting its primary prospective member groups and focusing on increasing retention among current members (which will be discussed later in the section). 82 Strategic Questions and Answers
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA • The YMCA, as an entity, is very well-known among the community. As illustrated in Figure 4.01, page 29, more than half (52%) of all area households knew of a YMCA, a level significantly higher than the national average of 33% for communities with existing YMCA facilities and programs. This suggests a good history of the YMCA in the nearby communities and that the community has a strong connection with the YMCA. This should be leveraged and built upon to generate more support for and further promote the new YMCA. However, this also means many people have established perceptions of the YMCA that could be hard to change. • The population growth in the area is very strong. The projected growth in the area for the next five years is 9%, by the most conservative source, much higher than the national average of 5%. This means the new YMCA would have many new households moving into the area every year, therefore ongoing marketing and promotional efforts would be important for long term success.
5. Are there factors that could increase or decrease the forecasts of new membership units? Yes The following table provides insight on additional factors that could increase or decrease the forecasts of new membership units for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA. Forecast could increase if ... • the YMCA is able to attract a significant portion of those households with a lot of interest in joining with aggressive marketing and promotion of its scholarships and sliding-scale membership rates. • no other major provider of similar services enters the marketplace and the YMCA is able to continue to be the area’s leading provider for fitness, wellness, aquatics, and recreation. • partnerships are sought with other organizations, especially with the City of Round Rock, that can broaden the program offerings and services; such as local health care providers for wellness and nutrition programs, City parks and recreation department for outdoor sports, or schools for before- and after-school programs and teen programs. Forecast could decrease if ... • there are similar service providers that capture the aging baby-boomers, active older adults/ seniors, and families with children prospective members before the YMCA does. • programming and marketing efforts are generic and fail to capture the demographic and psychographic characteristics of prospective members. • the most popular programs and activities indicated by this report are not included. • recommended pricing strategies are not implemented. Figure 10.01 Factors that Could Increase or Decrease Forecasts of New Membership Units
Strategic Questions and Answers 83
A FourSquare Market Study
6. Who are the prospective members of a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA? Aging baby-boomers, active older adults/seniors, and families with children, many are health-seekers and desire a “Third Place” Consider the following demographics of prospective members: • Less than one out of five of prospective members (18%) said they had children under age 18 in their homes. This is very significant when close to one-third (32%) of the population in the general community are under age 19. In comparison 88% of transferring members from the Chasco YMCA and 80% from the Hutto YMCA said they had children under age 18. • Of all prospective members, only 15% chose a family with children as preferred membership category and another 3% chose a youth. • A strong presence of adults without children exists among prospective members with 45% choosing an individual adult membership. • Many prospective members (41%) are aging baby-boomers ages 45–64. • The majority of prospective members (68%) chose the statement I try, but struggle to make everyday choices to be healthy and live well, which is the identifier of health-seekers. As a result, 53% expressed strong interest in having Y staff offer them advice on proper workout techniques, 71% in working out with a group at their fitness level, 59% in a free personal health and fitness plan based on their goals and monitored by Y staff, and 71% in a lounge area with Wi Fi, that serves healthy snacks and coffee. The strong interest in a lounge area signifies the importance of social infrastructure at the YMCA and strong desire for the “Third Place” among prospective members. The “Third Place” refers to social surroundings separate from the two usual social environments of home and the workplace. The YMCA should design its facility, programming mix, marketing and promotional strategies with these demographics and psychographics in mind.
8. Are there recommendations for facility development of a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA? Yes Given the strong interest revealed and significant new membership units and revenue forecasted by the study, the Consultant recommends that a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA be established as soon as the capital funding can be secured. If the decision is made to proceed with establishing a new Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA, the Consulates recommends an indoor facility of approximately 14,750 square feet. If the decision is made to proceed with establishing a new full-facility Northeast Round Rock YMCA with a pool or gym at the proposed location, the Consultant recommends an indoor full facility of approximately 43,500 square feet to attract and serve the forecasted new membership units. The Consultant applies two important criteria when recommending and prioritizing the features: member usage per square foot and revenue generated per square foot per capital dollar invested. Based on these two criteria and findings, the Consultant also recommends the following facility development strategies: • Collaborate with local schools and swim clubs to include a deep water, Olympic-sized 50-meter competition pool with either 20-22 short course lap lanes, or eight, 50-meter long course lap lanes 84 Strategic Questions and Answers
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA for swim meets, deep water aquatics activities and diving. While the feature did not stimulate significant number of new membership units, prospective members expressed moderate to high interest in a variety of cool-water aquatic activities that require such a pool. Program revenue potential for cool-water aquatic activities could be considerable. • Establish partnership with a local hospital to include a therapy pool at the new YMCA for water-based therapeutic exercise, which is of interest to 29% of prospective members. That partnership could also provide many health and wellness programs, which are of interest to 65% of prospective members. However, FourSquare Research, Inc. is not an architectural or design firm. Our opinions are based on our experience with over 700 similar non-profit studies and on observing over 1,000 for-profit fitness providers. Actual square footage and costs will vary widely depending on zoning and environmental issues. All recommendations are meant to provide a “ball park” guide for facility development, expansion, and/or renovation. The tables on the following pages first show the program usage of major features among prospective users, then lists space allocation recommended to attract membership units for a new Northeast Round Rock YMCA at the proposed location.
Strategic Questions and Answers 85
A FourSquare Market Study
Program Usage of Major Features of a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA The following table shows the level of usage of facility features by programs among prospective members. Features of a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA Programs
Wellness/ Fitness Center
Group Exercise Studios
Adult Fitness
Very High
Very High
Indoor Indoor Indoor Cool Child Watch Multipurpose Multipurpose Warm Water Water Classrooms Gymnasium Family Pool Lap pool Babysitting High
Adult Aquatics
Youth/ Teen Center
Moderate
High
Adult Adventure Adult Sports Adult Recreation Nutrition and Weight Management
Very High
Stress and Relaxation
Very High
Rehab/Health Programs Women’s Programs
High High
Family Activities
Moderate
Programs for Children Ages 0–2
Moderate Low
Low
Low Moderate
Programs for Children Ages 3–5
Low
Low
Low
Low
Programs for Children Ages 6–9
Low
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate Low
Programs for Children Ages 10–13
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Programs for Children Ages 14–17
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Adult Rating Scale
Low
<15%
Children’s Rating Scale
Low
Moderate
15%–29%
Moderate
High
30%–44%
High
Very High
≥45%
Very High
Low Low <5%
5%–9% 10%–14% ≥15%
Figure 10.02 Summary of Usage among Prospective Members of a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
86 Strategic Questions and Answers
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Recommended Space Allocation for a New Full-Facility Northeast Round Rock YMCA The following table shows the recommended square footage of facility features for a new full-facility Northeast Round Rock YMCA. Please note this does not include additional features and shared uses for collaborations with the Round Rock ISD and local hospital. Indoor Features Critical in Attracting New Membership Units for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Approximate Square Footage
Program Interest Findings
First-class wellness center that includes • a cardiovascular area of 3,500 sq. ft. • a free weights and strength-training equipment area of 4,000 sq. ft., including a 30-minute circuit training area • a designated workout area of 1,000 sq. ft. with more staff supervision for teens, beginners, and women • consulting areas/rooms of 500 sq. ft.
9,000
Figure 7.05, Figure 8.01 &, Figure 8.02
Three group exercise studios, one of 2,000 square feet for aerobics and group fitness classes, the second of 1,500 square feet for relaxation, dance, yoga, and tai chi, and the third of 800 square feet for indoor cycling
3,300
Figure 8.01 &, Figure 8.02
An indoor warm-water pool with • zero degree/beach entry for recreational swimming, lessons, and water aerobics • aquatic playground features such as splash pads and sprays • three lanes for lap swimming, and aqua walking and running • showers, lockers, and changing areas for men, women, and families
10,000
Figure 7.02 Figure 9.03, & Figure 9.04,
An indoor multipurpose activity center/gymnasium with half courts, dividers, retractable hoops, versatile flooring, and ample storage space for a variety of activities such as basketball, volleyball, gymnastics, summer day camps, and family night
7,500
Figure 7.02, Figure 7.04 &, Figure 7.05
Multipurpose classrooms with dividers and a sink/wet area for children’s creative arts programs and community meetings
500
Figure 7.02, Figure 7.04, Figure 7.05 & Figure 8.04
Child watch/baby-sitting area for infants and toddlers ages 0-5
500
Figure 7.01
Kidz Fun Zone with supervised features such as moonwalks and a climbing maze for children ages 6-9
1,000
Figure 7.01
Youth and teen center with TV, pool tables, Exergame, and seating for social activities (which can also be used for other programs when needed)
1,000
Figure 7.05
Members’ lounge/snack bar/social area/community program area
2,000
Figure 8.03
Subtotal Minimal planning factor, H/V/AC, bathrooms, halls, and offices (25%)
Total Indoor
34,800 8,700 43,500
Figure 10.03 Features Critical to the Success of a New Full-Facility Northeast Round Rock YMCA Strategic Questions and Answers 87
A FourSquare Market Study
Recommended Space Allocation for a New Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA The following table shows the recommended square footage of facility features for a new Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA without a pool and/or gym. It also has factored in the usage of current members who will be transferring from Chasco and Hutto YMCAs Indoor Features Critical in Attracting New Membership Units for a New Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Approximate Square Footage
Program Interest Findings
First-class wellness center that includes • a cardiovascular area of 1,500 sq. ft. • a free weights and strength-training equipment area of 2,000 sq. ft., including a 30-minute circuit training area • a designated workout area of 750 sq. ft. with more staff supervision for active older adults/seniors, beginners, and women • consulting areas/rooms of 250 sq. ft.
4,500
Figure 7.05, Figure 8.01 &, Figure 8.02
Two group exercise studios, one of 1,500 square feet for aerobics and group fitness classes and the other of 1,000 square feet for relaxation, dance, yoga, and tai chi
2,500
Figure 8.01 &, Figure 8.02
Multipurpose classrooms with dividers and a sink/wet area for children’s creative arts programs and community meetings
500
Figure 7.02, Figure 7.04, Figure 7.05 & Figure 8.04
Child watch/baby-sitting area
800
Figure 7.01
Locker rooms and showers for men and women
2,000
Figure 8.05
Members’ lounge/snack bar/social area/community program area
1,500
Figure 8.03
Subtotal Minimal planning factor, H/V/AC, bathrooms, halls, and offices (25%)
Total Indoor
11,800 2,950 14,750
Figure 10.04 Features Critical to the Success of a New Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA
88 Strategic Questions and Answers
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Chapter Eleven Appendix: Program Revenue Estimates
Appendix 89
A FourSquare Market Study
90 Appendix
Opportunities for a New Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Estimates of Program Revenue for a New Full-Facility Northeast Round Rock YMCA The following table provides estimated revenue from prospective members for fee-based programs that could be provided in a new full facility Northeast Round Rock YMCA as illustrated in Figure 10.03, page 85. % of Interest
Total Users
Revenue Per Units
Frequency of Use
Program Length
Annual Revenue
Parents’ Night Out fun program for children at $15/child
9%
75
$15
Monthly
24
$27,000
Full day sports camp (Flag football, softball/t-ball)
3%
80
$115
Weekly
10
$92,000
Swim lessons at about $55 for an 8-week session (for children)
3%
80
$55
Session
11
$48,400
Dance classes such as ballet, tap or jazz at about $80 for an 8-week session
3%
80
$80
Session
2
$12,800
Creative arts courses such as drawing, drama, and music at about $80 for an 8-week session
3%
80
$80
Session
2
$12,800
Specialty training such as TRX Suspension Training and Intensity Interval Training at $64 for 8-weeks
21%
559
$64
Session
1
$35,776
Indoor sports leagues
6%
160
$40
Session
4
$25,600
Outdoor sports leagues
12%
240
$40
Session
4
$38,400
Programs
Total
$292,776
Figure 11.01 Estimates of Program Revenue for a New Full-Facility Northeast Round Rock YMCA
Appendix 91
A FourSquare Market Study
Estimates of Program Revenue for a New Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA The following table provides estimated revenue from prospective members for fee-based programs that could be provided in a new express Northeast Round Rock YMCA as illustrated in Figure 10.04, page 86. Programs
% of Interest
Total Users
Revenue Per Units
Frequency of Use
Program Length
Annual Revenue
Parents’ Night Out fun program for children at $15/child
9%
35
$15
Monthly
24
$12,600
Dance classes such as ballet, tap or jazz at about $80 for an 8-week session
3%
63
$80
Session
2
$10,080
Creative arts courses such as drawing, drama, and music at about $80 for an 8-week session
3%
63
$80
Session
2
$10,080
Specialty training such as TRX Suspension Training and Intensity Interval Training at $64 for 8-week
21%
439
$64
Session
1
$28,096
Total
Figure 11.02 Estimates of Program Revenue for a New Express Northeast Round Rock YMCA
92 Appendix
$60,856
Round Rock ISD Aquatic Center Feasibility Survey CONFIDENTIAL DOCUMENT N=302 registered voters with N=120 subsample of previous May/municipal voters MoE +/- 5.63 (registered voters) and +/- 8.92 (previous May voters) Field dates: October 25-31, 2016 Due to rounding, not all percentages sum to 100 General impressions Q1. Thinking about the quality of education that the Round Rock Independent School District provides to students, do you believe the district does a good job or a poor one? And would that be very good/poor or just somewhat good/poor? Registered voters: 49% Very good job 40% Somewhat good job 2% Somewhat poor job 0% Very poor job 9% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 59% Very good job 30% Somewhat good job 1% Somewhat poor job 3% Very poor job 8% Don’t know/Ref/NA Q2. We’re interested in your opinion of some groups and individuals. For each of the following, please tell us whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion, or if you have no opinion. Would that be very favorable/unfavorable or just somewhat favorable/unfavorable? Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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Q2a. The Round Rock Independent School District Registered voters: 50% Very favorable 35% Somewhat favorable 3% Somewhat unfavorable 0% Very unfavorable 12% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 61% Very favorable 28% Somewhat favorable 3% Somewhat unfavorable 1% Very unfavorable 8% Don’t know/Ref/NA Q2b. The superintendent of the Round Rock school district, Steve Flores Registered voters: 21% Very favorable 17% Somewhat favorable 4% Somewhat unfavorable 1% Very unfavorable 57% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 33% Very favorable 14% Somewhat favorable 5% Somewhat unfavorable 1% Very unfavorable 48% Don’t know/Ref/NA Q2c. The Round Rock school district’s teachers Registered voters: 47% Very favorable 35% Somewhat favorable 2% Somewhat unfavorable 0% Very unfavorable 16% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 50% Very favorable 30% Somewhat favorable 3% Somewhat unfavorable 0% Very unfavorable 17% Don’t know/Ref/NA Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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Q2d. The Round Rock school district’s Board of Trustees Registered voters: 12% Very favorable 26% Somewhat favorable 7% Somewhat unfavorable 2% Very unfavorable 54% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 16% Very favorable 33% Somewhat favorable 5% Somewhat unfavorable 3% Very unfavorable 44% Don’t know/Ref/NA School district facilities Q3. How would you rate the Round Rock school district’s school buildings and educational facilities? Would you say they are excellent, good, average, or below average? Registered voters: 34% Excellent 41% Good 18% Average 1% Below average 6% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 38% Excellent 40% Good 17% Average 1% Below average 5% Don’t know/Ref/NA Q4. The average high school in Round Rock currently enrolls about two thousand, eight hundred (2800) students. Do you consider that too large, about the right size, or too small for a high school? Registered voters: 45% Too large 47% About the right size 2% Too small 7% Don’t know/Ref/NA Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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Municipal voters: 41% Too large 48% About the right size 3% Too small 8% Don’t know/Ref/NA Q5. Some school districts provide opportunities for students to enroll in specialized academies that emphasize certain skills and interests, such as the visual and performing arts, world languages, science and technology, and health sciences. Would you say that it is important or not important to provide these kinds of opportunities to Round Rock students? And would that be very important or just somewhat important? Registered voters: 69% Very important 25% Somewhat important 4% Not important 3% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 68% Very important 24% Somewhat important 7% Not important 2% Don’t know/Ref/NA Q6. Thinking about the extra-curricular opportunities that the Round Rock school district provides to students, like athletics and fine arts, do you believe the district does a good job or a poor one? And would that be very good/poor or just somewhat good/poor? Registered voters: 44% Very good job 36% Somewhat good job 2% Somewhat poor job 1% Very poor job 16% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 45% Very good job 38% Somewhat good job 2% Somewhat poor job 1% Very poor job 15% Don’t know/Ref/NA Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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Q7. How would you rate the Round Rock school district’s athletic and performing arts facilities? Would you say they are excellent, good, average, or below average? Registered voters: 42% Excellent 31% Good 11% Average 2% Below average 14% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 47% Excellent 32% Good 9% Average 1% Below average 12% Don’t know/Ref/NA Q8. Some school districts have a variety of high quality athletic and performing arts facilities to provide their students with world-class extra-curricular opportunities, including football and other team sports, Olympic sports, music, and visual and performing arts. Would you say that it is important or not important to provide these kinds of opportunities to Round Rock students? And would that be very important or just somewhat important? Registered voters: 60% Very important 33% Somewhat important 5% Not important 2% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 50% Very important 42% Somewhat important 7% Not important 2% Don’t know/Ref/NA Q9a. The Round Rock school district is considering a bond proposal to finance construction projects that will accommodate its growing population and increase program opportunities for students. This bond proposal will likely include a new high school and middle school, district-wide technology upgrades, and facilities to support extra-curricular programs. If this bond election were held today, would you vote for or against it, or are you unsure? Registered voters: 54% For 12% Against 34% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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Municipal voters: 51% For 18% Against 30% Unsure 1% Ref/NA Q9b. And if you had to say, do you lean more towards supporting the school bonds or do you lean against? Registered voters who responded “unsure“ to Q9a: 63% Lean more towards supporting 18% Lean against 19% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Municipal voters who responded “unsure“ to Q9a: 53% Lean more towards supporting 25% Lean against 22% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Combined responses for Q9a and Q9b Registered voters: 75% For/lean more towards supporting +57 margin 18% Against/lean against 6% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Municipal voters: 70% For/lean more towards supporting +44 margin 26% Against/lean against 8% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Aquatic center and facilities priorities Q10. The school district is considering several different construction projects to support new programs for students. For each of the following, please tell me if you think it’s important or not important to make it available to Round Rock students. And would that be very important or just somewhat important? (Note: the order of Q10a-10f was randomized) Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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Q10a. A middle school academy for the visual and performing arts Registered voters: 30% Very important 42% Somewhat important 26% Not important 2% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 27% Very important 43% Somewhat important 28% Not important 3% Don’t know/Ref/NA Q10b. A middle school academy for science, technology, engineering, arts, and math Registered voters: 68% Very important 23% Somewhat important 9% Not important 1% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 58% Very important 29% Somewhat important 13% Not important 1% Don’t know/Ref/NA Q10c. An elementary school program for world languages Registered voters: 36% Very important 40% Somewhat important 23% Not important 1% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 37% Very important 37% Somewhat important 26% Not important 1% Don’t know/Ref/NA Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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Q10d. A pre-kindergarten center Registered voters: 41% Very important 30% Somewhat important 25% Not important 5% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 40% Very important 26% Somewhat important 27% Not important 8% Don’t know/Ref/NA Q10e. A high school academy for career readiness Registered voters: 69% Very important 23% Somewhat important 7% Not important 2% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 62% Very important 27% Somewhat important 7% Not important 5% Don’t know/Ref/NA Q10f. Athletics and performing arts facilities to support new programs for students Registered voters: 31% Very important 51% Somewhat important 16% Not important 2% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 29% Very important 50% Somewhat important 19% Not important 2% Don’t know/Ref/NA Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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Q11. Among the projects being considered by the Round Rock school district is an aquatic center for students to exercise, learn, train, and compete in swimming and diving. Would you support or oppose this investment? Would that be strongly support/oppose or just somewhat support/oppose? Registered voters: 29% Strongly support 76% strongly or somewhat support 47% Somewhat support 15% Somewhat oppose 24% strongly or somewhat oppose 9% Strongly oppose 1% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 28% Strongly support 67% strongly or somewhat support 39% Somewhat support 19% Somewhat oppose 31% strongly or somewhat oppose 12% Strongly oppose 3% Don’t know/Ref/NA Q12. The school district could also partner with the YMCA and the City of Round Rock to build and run a larger aquatic center. Partnership could allow for shared costs and more community access. Would this make you more or less likely to support building an aquatic center? Would that be much more/less likely or just somewhat more/less likely? Registered voters: 42% Much more likely 79% much or somewhat more likely 37% Somewhat more likely 8% Somewhat less likely 16% much or somewhat less likely 8% Much less likely 4% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 36% Much more likely 79% much or somewhat more likely 43% Somewhat more likely 8% Somewhat less likely 18% much or somewhat less likely 10% Much less likely 4% Don’t know/Ref/NA Q13. An aquatic center for Round Rock could potentially host regional, state, and national swimming and diving competitions, which could bring tourism dollars and tax revenues into our community from out of town visitors. Would this make you more or less likely to support building an aquatic center? Would that be much more/less likely or just somewhat more/less likely? Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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Registered voters: 27% Much more likely 42% Somewhat more likely 15% Somewhat less likely 9% Much less likely 8% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 25% Much more likely 41% Somewhat more likely 15% Somewhat less likely 14% Much less likely 5% Don’t know/Ref/NA
69% much or somewhat more likely 24% much or somewhat less likely
66% much or somewhat more likely 29% much or somewhat less likely
Cost and tax questions The Round Rock school district is considering several different projects for a possible school bond election. School bonds often require a modest increase in the school property tax rate to afford construction projects… Q14a. If Round Rock school district voters were to approve bonds for new facilities that required the average homeowner to pay about 10 dollars more per month in school property taxes, would you vote for or against the bonds, or are you unsure? Registered voters: 44% For 22% Against 33% Unsure 1% Ref/NA Municipal voters: 42% For 23% Against 34% Unsure 1% Ref/NA Q14b. And if you had to say, do you lean more towards supporting them or do you lean against? Registered voters who responded “unsure“ to Q14a: 58% Lean more towards supporting 30% Lean against 12% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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Municipal voters who responded “unsure“ to Q14a: 51% Lean more towards supporting 42% Lean against 7% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Combined responses for Q14a and Q14b Registered voters: 64% For/Lean more towards supporting +32% margin 32% Against/Lean against 4% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Municipal voters: 60% For/Lean more towards supporting +22% margin 38% Against/Lean against 3% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Q15a. And, what if school property taxes increased by only 5 dollars per month for the average homeowner to pay for the bond projects? In this case, would you vote for or against the bonds, or are you unsure? Registered voters: 60% For 18% Against 22% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Municipal voters: 55% For 22% Against 23% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Q15b. And if you had to say, do you lean more towards supporting them or do you lean against? Registered voters who responded “unsure“ to Q15a: 67% Lean more towards supporting 25% Lean against 9% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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Municipal voters who responded “unsure“ to Q15a: 54% Lean more towards supporting 32% Lean against 14% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Combined responses for Q15a and Q15b Registered voters: 75% For/lean more towards supporting +52 margin 23% Against/lean against 2% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Municipal voters: 66% For/lean more towards supporting +37 margin 29% Against/lean against 3% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Q16a. Finally, what if the bonds approved by voters would not require an increase in the school property tax rate at all? In this case, would you vote for or against the bonds, or are you unsure? Registered voters: 75% For 8% Against 18% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Municipal voters: 73% For 8% Against 19% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Q16b. And if you had to say, do you lean more towards supporting them or do you lean against? Registered voters who responded “unsure“ to Q16a: 52% Lean more towards supporting 37% Lean against 11% Unsure 1% Ref/NA Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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Municipal voters who responded “unsure“ to Q16a: 48% Lean more towards supporting 30% Lean against 17% Unsure 4% Ref/NA Combined responses for Q16a and Q16b Registered voters: 84% Lean more towards supporting +70 margin 14% Lean against 2% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Municipal voters: 82% Lean more towards supporting +68 margin 14% Lean against 3% Unsure 0% Ref/NA Demographics We’re almost done. These last few questions are just for statistical purposes. BIRTHYR. In what year were you born? *See dataset for responses CHILD. Do you have a child living at home currently? Registered voters: 52% Child at home 48% No children in the home 0% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 26% Child at home 74% No children in the home 0% Don’t know/Ref/NA
Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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VOTE. How likely are you to vote in the presidential election this November? Would you say that you are certain to vote, likely to vote, may vote, probably won’t vote, or definitely won’t vote? Registered voters: 92% Certain to vote 3% Likely to vote 1% May vote 0% Probably won’t vote 3% Definitely won’t vote 2% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 93% Certain to vote 5% Likely to vote 1% May vote 1% Probably won’t vote 1% Definitely won’t vote 0% Don’t know/Ref/NA EDU. What is the highest level of schooling that you completed? Registered voters: 0% Less than high school 7% High school 26% Some college 36% College degree 30% Post-grad degree (law school, medical school, Ph.D.) 1% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 1% Less than high school 9% High school 23% Some college 40% College degree 28% Post-grad degree (law school, medical school, Ph.D.) 0% Don’t know/Ref/NA INCOME. Would you say that your total household income was less than $40,000 last year, between $40,000 and $80,000, or greater than $80,000? Registered voters: 10% Less than $40,000 19% $40,000 to $80,000 65% Greater than $80,000 7% Don’t know/Ref/NA Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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Municipal voters: 11% Less than $40,000 26% $40,000 to $80,000 51% Greater than $80,000 13% Don’t know/Ref/NA PARTY_ID. Generally speaking, do you consider yourself to be a Republican, a Democrat, or neither? (These are the combined results of PARTY, the initial question of party identification, and PARTYLN, a follow-up question to PARTY for those who responded “neither” or DK/Ref/NA in order to determine whether the respondent leans toward one major party over the other) Registered voters: 44% Republican 40% Democrat 12% Neither 4% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 45% Republican 39% Democrat 13% Neither 3% Don’t know/Ref/NA RACE. What is your primary racial identity? Registered voters: 73% White/Anglo 5% Black 12% Hispanic/Latino 4% Other 5% Don’t know/Ref/NA Municipal voters: 83% White/Anglo 2% Black 6% Hispanic/Latino 3% Other 8% Don’t know/Ref/NA GENDER. Registered voters: 48% Male 52% Female Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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Municipal voters: 46% Male 54% Female Thank you, that concludes our survey.
Patterson & Company Research [CONFIDENTIAL] October 24-31, 2016
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