Vshfl f Idfwruv/ Ohduqlqj/ dqg wkh G|qdplfv ri Wudgh Fodxvwuh Edmrqd
_
Xqlyhuvlw| ri Pldpl/ XVD
Devwudfw Lq wkh srvwzdu shulrg/ wkh yroxph ri wudgh dprqj ghyhorshg frxqwulhv kdv lqfuhdvhg dw d pxfk kljkhu udwh wkdq JGS1 Wklv sdshu suhvhqwv d g|qdplf jhqhudo htxloleulxp prgho ri wudgh ehwzhhq ghyhorshg frxqwulhv wkdw dffrxqwv iru wklv sdwwhuq ri wudgh g|qdplfv1 Frxqwulhv wudgh lq jrrgv wkdw xvh jrrg0vshfl f vnloohg oderu dqg xqvnloohg oderu dv idfwruv ri surgxfwlrq1 Vshfl f vnloov duh ohduqhg rq0wkh0mre dqg wkhuh h{lvwv srvlwlyh h hfwv lq ohduqlqj1 Vpdoo lqlwldo gl huhqfhv lq wkh glvwulexwlrq ri h{shuwv lq hdfk frxqwu| jhqhudwh dq lqfuhdvlqj sdwwhuq ri vshfldol}dwlrq ryhu wlph1 Nqrzohgjh vslooryhuv dfurvv vhfwruv duh fuxfldo ghwhuplqdqwv ri wkh wudgh sdwwhuq1 Nh| zrugv= yroxph ri wudgh/ jrrg0vshfl f nqrzohgjh/ g|qdplf jhqhudo htxloleulxp/ dffxpxodwlrq ri idfwruv1 MHO= I4/ H1
WVxeplwwhg Rfwrehu 53331 Uhylvhg Mxo| 53351 Wklv yhuvlrq Iheuxdu| 53361 _Sohdvh vhqg frpphqwv wr fedmrqdCpldpl1hgx1 L zrxog olnh wr wkdqn Wlprwk| M1 Nhkrh dqg Hgzdug F1 Suhvfrww iru
wkhlu frqwlqxrxv khos dqg vxssruw zkloh ghyhorslqj wklv sdshu1 L dovr wkdqn Nhl0Px \l/ zkrvh frpphqwv vxevwdqwldoo| lpsuryhg hduolhu yhuvlrqv ri wklv sdshu1 L dp judwhixo wr Dqguìv Hurvd/ Oxlvd Ixvwhu/ Gdylg Nhoo|/ Qdud|dqd Nrfkhuodnrwd/ Ohh Rkdqldq/ Whuu| Urh/ Mlp Vfkplw}/ dqg dq dqrq|prxv uhihuhh dv zhoo dv sduwlflsdqwv ri wkh Pdfurhfrqrplfv Zrunvkrs dw wkh Xqlyhuvlw| ri Plqqhvrwd/ wkh Uhvhdufk Ghsduwphqw dw wkh Ihghudo Uhvhuyh Edqn ri Plqqhdsrolv dqg wkh VHG phhwlqjv iru wkhlu lqvljkwixo frpphqwv 1 Doo uhpdlqlqj huuruv duh p| rzq1
41 Lqwurgxfwlrq Wkh udslg lqfuhdvh lq frpphufldo lqwhudfwlrq ehwzhhq frxqwulhv kdv dwwudfwhg frqvlghudeoh dwwhqwlrq lq wkh sdvw ghfdghv/ erwk lq srolwlfdo dqg dfdghplf duhqdv +Ihhqvwud 4<<;/ Nuxjpdq 4<<8/ Lvkll dqg \l 4<<: dprqj rwkhuv,1 Dv jxuh 4 vkrzv/ phufkdqglvh wudgh kdv lqfuhdvhg 518 wlphv idvwhu wkdq lqfrph lq wkh srvwzdu shulrg1 Wkh udslg jurzwk lq wudgh udlvhv qhz lvvxhv wkdw fdqqrw eh uhvroyhg zlwkrxw nqrzohgjh ri wkh suhflvh qdwxuh ri wkh wudgh sdwwhuq dqg wkh grphvwlf h hfwv ri d pruh rshq hfrqrp|1 1400
1200
exports 1000
800
600
output 400
200
0 1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Source: GATT International Trade, various issues.
Iljxuh 414= Lqglfhv ri zruog phufkdqglvh h{sruwv dqg rxwsxw1 +4<83 @ 433, Wkh dqdo|vlv ri wudgh sdwwhuqv uhyhdov rwkhu lqwhuhvwlqj ihdwxuhv ri lqwhuqdwlrqdo wudgh lq wkh srvwzdu shulrg1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ derxw :3( ri wkh wudgh rzv duh ruljlqdwhg e| ghyhorshg frxqwulhv wudglqj zlwk hdfk rwkhu1 Ixuwkhupruh/ ghyhorshg frxqwulhv prvwo| wudgh lq pdqxidfwxuhv1 Wklv lv d vwulnlqj ihdwxuh/ vlqfh wkh frqvxpswlrq vkduh ri pdqxidfwxuhv lq ghyhorshg frxqwulhv ghfuhdvhg vkduso| lq wkh shulrg ri vwxg|1 Prvw ri wkh lqfuhdvh lq wudgh lv dssduhqwo| dffrxqwhg iru e| jrrgv wkdw duh ehfrplqj ohvv dqg 5
ohvv lpsruwdqw lq wkh frqvxpswlrq edvnhw1 Wdul v dqg wudqvsruwdwlrq frvwv zkhuh vxevwdqwldoo| uhgxfhg lq wkh srvwzdu shulrg1 Ghvslwh wklv idfw/ vhyhudo vwxglhv olnh Edlhu dqg Ehujqvwudqg +4<<;, dqg Urvh +4<<4, qg wkdw wdul v dqg wudqvsruwdwlrq frvwv duh qrw wkh pdlq irufh ehklqg wkh lqfuhdvh lq wudgh1 Wkh lqfuhdvh lq wkh wudgh0wr0lqfrph udwlr uhsuhvhqwv d sx}}oh iru h{lvwlqj wudgh wkhrulhv1 Vwdqgdug vwdwlf irupxodwlrqv ri wkh Khfnvfkhu0Rkolq dqg Ulfdugldq prghov suhglfw olwwoh wudgh dprqj frxq0 wulhv zlwk vlplodu fdslwdo0oderu udwlrv dqg whfkqrorjlhv +erwk fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri ghyhorshg frxqwulhv,14 Pdunxvhq +4<;9, xvhv d qhz wudgh wkhru| prgho5 zlwk qrq0krprwkhwlf suhihuhqfhv zkhuh wkh wudgh yroxph lqfuhdvhv dv frxqwulhv ehfrph ulfkhu1 Hyhq wkrxjk wkh prgho gholyhuv lqfuhdvhv lq wudgh wr lqfrph ryhu wlph/ Ehujrhlqj dqg Nhkrh +5334, qg/ lq d txdolwdwlyh vwxg| ri Pdunxvhq*v prgho/ wkdw lq rughu wr uhsolfdwh wkh lqfuhdvh lq wkh wudgh0wr0lqfrph udwlr revhuyhg lq wkh gdwd wkh| qhhg h{wuhpho| kljk hodvwlflwlhv ri vxevwlwxwlrq ehwzhhq jrrgv1 Ixuwkhupruh/ wkh prgho lpsolhv dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh frq0 vxpswlrq vkduh ri lqfrph ryhu wlph/ frqwudu| wr zkdw zh revhuyh lq wkh gdwd1 \l +5335, rewdlqv kxjh lqfuhdvhv lq wudgh lq vkruw shulrgv ri wlph wkurxjk lqfuhdvhv lq yhuwlfdo vshfldol}dwlrq gulyhq e| wdul uhgxfwlrqv1 Kh xvhv d Ulfdugldq iudphzrun/ zlwk h{rjhqrxvo| jlyhq whfkqrorjlfdo gl huhqfhv dfurvv frxqwulhv1 Jlyhq wkdw ghyhorshg frxqwulhv kdyh dffhvv wr wkh vdph whfkqrorj| dqg vlplodu ohyhov ri ghyhorsphqw/ wklv lv/ lq p| rslqlrq/ d vwurqj dvvxpswlrq1 L dp frqylqfhg wkdw wkh h hfwv ri lqwhuqd0 wlrqdo wudgh lq wkh lqgxvwuldo vwuxfwxuh ri dq rshq hfrqrp| duh vljql fdqw1 Wkh revhuyhg gl huhqfhv lq whfkqrorj| frxog yhu| zhoo eh d uhvxow ri wkh lqwhuqdwlrqdo lqwhudfwlrq/ lq zklfk fdvh dvvxplqj wkhp dzd| ohdyhv xqh{sodlqhg d yhu| lpsruwdqw dvshfw ri wkh h hfwv ri wudgh lq wkh hfrqrp|1 Lq wklv sdshu L ghyhors d jhqhudo htxloleulxp prgho ri wudgh ehwzhhq ghyhorshg frxqwulhv wkdw 4
Fklspdq +4<<5, dqg Urgjhuv +4<;:, suhvhqw prghov lq wkh Khfnvfkhu0Rkolq iudphzrun lq zklfk wkh| jhw vljql fdqw lqwud0lqgxvwu| wudgh +wudgh ehwzhhq frpprglwlhv lq wkh vdph lqgxvwu|, ehwzhhq frxqwulhv zlwk vlplodu fdslwdo0oderu hqgrzphqwv1 Erwk prghov duh vwdwlf1 5 vhh Khospdq dqg Nuxjpdq +4<;8, iru d vxuyh| rq qhz wudgh wkhru| prghov1
6
vshfl fdoo| lqwurgxfhv g|qdplf h hfwv ri wudgh lq wkh hfrqrp|1 Frxqwulhv wkdw duh rshq wr wudgh judgxdoo| vshfldol}h ryhu wlph lq wkh surgxfwlrq ri wkh vshfl f jrrgv lq zklfk wkh| kdyh frpsdudwlyh dgydqwdjh1 Frpsdudwlyh dgydqwdjh lv/ lq wxuq/ lqwhqvl hg ryhu wlph e| wkh dffxpxodwlrq ri vshfl f idfwruv ri surgxfwlrq1 Wzr idfwruv duh qhhghg iru wkh surgxfwlrq ri dq| jrrg= jrrg0vshfl f vshfldol}hg oderu/ fdoohg h{shuwv lq wkh prgho/ dqg qrq0vshfldol}hg oderu/ fdoohg zrunhuv1 Wkh vnloov qhhghg wr ehfrph dq h{shuw duh ohduqhg rq0wkh0mre1 Wudglqj frxqwulhv h{sruw wkh jrrgv iru zklfk wkh| kdyh frpsdudwlyh dgydqwdjh lq wkhlu hqgrzphqw ri h{shuwv1 D frxqwu|*v surgxfwlrq sdwwhuq ghwhuplqhv krz wkh glvwulexwlrq ri vnloov dprqj lwv srsxodwlrq hyroyhv ryhu wlph1 Wkh vwrfn ri h{shuwv lq hdfk lqgxvwu| surgxfhv d srvlwlyh h hfw lq wkh delolw| ri zrunhuv wr dftxluh wkh h{shuwlvh lq wkh lqgxvwu|1 Wkh kljkhu wkh sursruwlrq ri h{shuwv lq wkh lqgxvwu|/ wkh hdvlhu wkh zrunhuv ohduq1 Wkh srvlwlyh h hfwv lq wkh delolw| wr ohduq rq0wkh0mre/ wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh delolw| wr wudgh/ pdjqli| dq| lqlwldo frpsdudwlyh dgydqwdjhv dfurvv frxqwulhv/ dqg fuhdwh d sdwwhuq ri judgxdo vshfldol}dwlrq1 Wkh lqwxlwlrq iru wkh judgxdo vshfldol}dwlrq lv fohdu= wkh srvvlelolw| ri ohduqlqj dqg ehfrplqj d vnloohg zrunhu fuhdwhv d wudgh r ehwzhhq zdjhv wrgd| dqg lqfrph srvvlelolwlhv wrpruurz1 Zrunhuv duh zloolqj wr dffhsw orzhu zdjhv wrgd| lq h{fkdqjh iru d kljkhu suredelolw| ri ehfrplqj vnloohg lq wkh ixwxuh1 Wkhuhiruh/ wkh lqgxvwu| zlwk uhodwlyho| orzhu sursruwlrq ri vnloohg zrunhuv kdv wr sd| uhodwlyho| kljkhu zdjhv dqg/ wkxv/ kluh ohvv zrunhuv wkdq wkh lqgxvwu| lq zklfk wkh frxqwu| kdv frpsdudwlyh dgydqwdjh1 Ohvv zrunhuv kluhg lpsolhv wkdw ohvv zrunhuv ohduq wkh vnloov lq wkh lqgxvwu| dqg/ dv d uhvxow/ wkh vwrfn ri h{shuwv lq wkh lqgxvwu| jurzv dw d uhodwlyho| vorzhu sdfh xqwlo lw uhdfkhv d srlqw zkhuh wkh vwrfn ri h{shuwv lq wkh lqgxvwu| fdqqrw eh vxvwdlqhg dqg wkh lqgxvwu| vwduwv ghfd|lqj1 Frxqwulhv judgxdoo| frqfhqwudwh wkhlu h{shuwlvh lq gl huhqw lqgxvwulhv/ dffruglqj wr wkhlu lqlwldo frpsdudwlyh dgydqwdjh/ judgxdoo| vshfldol}lqj lq wkh surgxfwlrq ri gl huhqw jrrgv1 Jlyhq wkh zd| zdjhv duh ghwhuplqhg/ wkh prgho kdv vrph lpsolfdwlrqv iru wkh zdjh gl huhqwldov 7
dfurvv vhfwruv dqg vnloo ohyhov wkdw duh frqvlvwhqw zlwk zdjh sdwwhuqv rq lqgxvwulhv lqyroyhg lq wudgh ehwzhhq ghyhorshg frxqwulhv +vhh Oryho| dqg Ulfkdugvrq/ 4<<;,1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ wkh prgho suhglfwv wkdw h{sruwlqj lqgxvwulhv vkrxog kdyh kljkhu zdjh gl huhqwldov dqg d kljkhu udwh ri jurzwk ri xqvnloohg zdjhv1 Ixuwkhupruh/ wkh ryhudoo zdjh jds ghfuhdvhv ryhu wlph16 Vnloov/ ru h{shuwlvh/ duh xqghuvwrrg lq d eurdg vhqvh lq wklv prgho1 Vnloov/ hperglhg lq shrsoh/ duh phdqw wr fdswxuh doo wkh nqrzohgjh wkdw lv vshfl f wr wkh surgxfwlrq ri d fhuwdlq jrrg1 Sduw ri wklv nqrzohgjh lqyroyhv wkh dftxlvlwlrq ri pdqdjhuldo fdslwdo1 Wkh surgxfwlrq ri d vshfl f jrrg lqyroyhv d pdqdjhuldo vhfwru wkdw frqwurov wkh surgxfwlrq surfhvv dqg d pdunhwlqj vhfwru wkdw glvwulexwhv wkh surgxfw wr wkh sxeolf1 Wkh vnloov ri wkhvh pdqdjhuv duh vshfl f wr wkh jrrg surgxfhg1 Zrunhuv/ e| zrunlqj dw wkh up/ duh h{srvhg wr wkhvh pdqdjhuldo fdslwdo/ ohduq krz wkh up lv uxq/ dqg ehfrph fdsdeoh ri vhwwlqj xs d qhz up rq wkhlu rzq1 D vshfl f vwxg| ri wkh lpsruwdqfh ri rq0wkh0mre ohduqlqj lq wkh wudqvplvvlrq ri nqrz0krz lv Ukhh +4<<3,17 Ukhh wudfhv wkh vxffhvv ri jduphqw h{sruwv lq Edqjodghvk wr d frooderudwlrq ehwzhhq d Nruhdq up/ Gdhzrr/ dqg d orfdo up/ Ghvk1 Hyhq wkrxjk Edqjodghvkl zrunhuv zhuh wudlqhg lq Gdhzrr lq wkh shuirupdqfh ri yhu| vshfl f wdvnv wkh wudlqhhv zhuh h{srvhg wr wkh pdqdjhuldo dqg pdunhwlqj v|vwhpv xvhg e| Gdhzrr/ doorzlqj wkhp wr ohdyh Ghvk dqg vhw xs wkhlu rzq jduphqw h{sruw upv lq Edqjodghvk/ pdnlqj lw rqh ri wkh prvw vxffhvvixo h{sruw lqgxvwulhv lq wkh frxqwu|1 Wkh lghd ri lqwurgxflqj ohduqlqj lq prghov ri wudgh lv qrw qhz1 \rxqj +4<<4,/ Erogulq dqg Vfkh0 lfnpdq +4<;;,/ dqg Ghyhuhx{ +4<<:, duh vrph h{dpsohv ri g|qdplf prghov ri wudgh dqg ohduqlqj1 Wkhvh sdshuv gl hu iurp plqh lq wzr dvshfwv= wkh| doo xvh d ohduqlqj0e|0grlqj iudphzrun dqg ohduqlqj 6 Wkhvh uhvxowv iroorz iurp wkh idfw wkdw zdjhv lq wkh vnloohg vhfwru ghshqg rq wkh vfduflw| ri vnloohg zrunhuv1 Zdjhv ri xqvnloohg zrunhuv lq hdfk vhfwru ghshqg rq wzr idfwruv= wkhlu vfduflw| dqg wkh ydoxh ri wkh vnloov lq wkh vhfwru1 Wkh kljkhu wkh qhhg iru xqvnloohg oderu/ wkh kljkhu wkhlu zdjhv1 Wkh kljkhu wkh ydoxh ri dftxlulqj wkh vhfwru*v vnloov/ wkh orzhu wkh xqvnloohg zdjhv lq wkh vhfwru1 7 L wkdqn Dp| M1 Jodvv iru srlqwlqj rxw wklv fdvh vwxg|1
8
lqfuhdvhv wrwdo idfwru surgxfwlylw| lq wkh frxqwu| +Ulfdugldq0w|sh ri ohduqlqj,1 Kljkhu gl huhqfhv lq surgxfwlylw| lqfuhdvh whfkqrorjlfdo gl huhqfhv dfurvv frxqwulhv dqg/ wkxv/ lqfuhdvh wudgh1 Wkhvh prghov/ jlyhq wkh phfkdqlvpv wkdw gulyh lqwhuqdwlrqdo wudgh/ duh pruh vxlwdeoh wr vwxg| wudgh dprqj frxqwulhv dw gl huhqw ohyhov ri ghyhorsphqw wkdq wr vwxg| wudgh ehwzhhq ghyhorshg frxqwulhv/ zklfk kdyh vlplodu hgxfdwlrqdo dqg whfkqrorjlfdo ohyhov1 Ihhqh| +4<<<, lqwurgxfhv lqgxvwu|0vshfl f ohduqlqj0e|0grlqj lq d wudgh prgho1 Khu prgho/ olnh wkh rqh lq wklv sdshu/ gholyhuv judgxdo vshfldol}dwlrq ryhu wlph/ exw khu ohduqlqj phfkdqlvp lv gl huhqw iurp plqh/ vlqfh lw dovr d hfwv wrwdo idfwru surgxfwlylw|1 Wkh lpsruwdqfh ri h{whuqdo h hfwv lq wkh dftxlvlwlrq ri nqrzohgjh lv wkh vxemhfw ri d ydvw hfrqrplf olwhudwxuh + h1j1/ vhh Oxfdv/ 4<;;/ 4<<;,1 Wkh h{lvwhqfh ri djjorphudwlrqv ri wkh w|sh ri Vlolfrq Ydooh|/ wkh lpsruwdqfh ri flwlhv dv fhqwhuv ri hfrqrplf dfwlylw|/ dqg xqlyhuvlwlhv dv fhqwhuv ri wudqvplvvlrq ri nqrzohgjh dffrxqwv iru dqhfgrwdo hylghqfh lq wklv uhvshfw1 Wkh sdshu lv rujdql}hg dv iroorzv= L suhvhqw wkh prgho lq vhfwlrq 51 Lq vhfwlrq 6 L gh qh htxloleulxp dqg fkdudfwhul}h lw iru d vlpsol hg yhuvlrq ri wkh prgho1 Vhfwlrq 7 frqwdlqv d vlpxodwhg yhuvlrq ri wkh prgho hfrqrp| dv zhoo dv vrph vhqvlwlylw| dqdo|vlv rq wkh sdudphwhuv ri wkh prgho1 Wkh h hfwv ri wdul v rq wkh prgho duh vwxglhg lq vhfwlrq 8 dqg vhfwlrq 9 frqfoxghv1
51 Wkh prgho Wzr idfwruv duh qhhghg wr surgxfh dq| frqvxpswlrq jrrg= h{shuwv dqg zrunhuv1 H{shuwlvh lv jrrg0 vshfl f> zrunhuv duh qrw1 Iroorzlqj Ukhh*v +4<<3, fdvh vwxg|/ pdqdjhuldo dqg pdunhwlqj vnloov lq wkh jduphqw lqgxvwu| duh vshfl f wr wkh lqgxvwu| +hyhq wr wkh vshfl f w|sh ri jduphqwv jrrgv surgxfhg,1 Shrsoh lq wklv prgho duh ri gl huhqw w|shv1 Vrph shrsoh srvvhvv vshfl f vnloov iru wkh surgxfwlrq ri rqh ri wkh jrrgv/ zkhuhdv rwkhu shrsoh duh xqvnloohg1 D shuvrq*v w|sh/ zklfk zloo fkdqjh ryhu wlph/ ghwhuplqhv klv rffxsdwlrqdo fkrlfhv1 Vnloohg shrsoh zrun dv h{shuwv lq wkh lqgxvwu| lq zklfk wkh| kdyh 9
wkh vnloov1 Xqvnloohg shrsoh zrun dv udz oderu lq dq| ri wkh lqgxvwulhv1 Lq zkdw iroorzv lw lv fuxfldo wr glvwlqjxlvk ehwzhhq d shuvrq*v w|sh dqg klv dfwxdo rffxsdwlrq1 L xvh wkh whupv vnloohg2xqvnloohg wr ghqrwh w|sh/ dqg h{shuw2zrunhu wr ghqrwh rffxsdwlrq1 H{shuwlvh lv dftxluhg rq0wkh0mre1 Zkloh ehlqj wdxjkw krz wr rshudwh wkh whfkqrorj|/ wkh zrunhuv iurp Edqjodghvk zhuh dovr h{srvhg wr rwkhu ixqgdphqwdov ri wkh lqgxvwu|*v nqrz0krz lw zdv suhflvho| wklv nqrzohgjh zkdw wkh| xvhg wr vhw xs wkhlu rzq lqgxvwulhv1 H{shuwlvh ghsuhfldwhv lq wklv prgho/ fdswxulqj wkh idfw wkdw nqrzohgjh qhhgv wr eh xsgdwhg1 Wkh frqvwdqw hyroxwlrq ri whfkqrorj| fkdqjhv lqgxvwuldo sudfwlfhv1 Rqo| wkh upv wkdw fdq dgdsw wr wkh fkdqjhv uhpdlq frpshwlwlyh1 Wkhuh lv d srvlwlyh h{whuqdo h hfw rq wkh dftxlvlwlrq ri h{shuwlvh1 Wkh pruh h{shuwv hpsor|hg lq wkh lqgxvwu|/ wkh hdvlhu lw lv iru d zrunhu wr jdlq wkh h{shuwlvh1 Wklv h{whuqdo h hfw fuhdwhv d glvsdulw| lq wkh udwlr ri dffxpxodwlrq ri h{shuwv ryhu wlph1 Wkh udslg jurzwk ri wkh jduphqw lqgxvwu| lq Edqjodghvk diwhu wkh fuhdwlrq ri Ghvk lv d fohdu hylghqfh ri wkh h{lvwhqfh ri wkhvh h{whuqdo h hfwv1 Ehiruh Ghvk zdv fuhdwhg/ wkh jduphqw lqgxvwu| zdv doprvw qrq0h{lvwhqw lq Edqjodghvk dqg fohduo| qrw frpshwlwlyh lq lqwhuqdwlrqdo pdunhwv1 Irxu |hduv diwhu Ghvk vwduwhg rshudwlrqv/ jduphqwv ehfdph rqh ri wkh prvw vxffhvvixo h{sruwv lqgxvwulhv lq wkh frxqwu|1 Wkh h{sodqdwlrq ri wklv hyroxwlrq lv vlpsoh= prvw ri wkh shrsoh ruljlqdoo| wudlqhg lq Gdhzrr ohiw Ghvk wr rshudwh wkhlu rzq upv1 Rwkhu zrunhuv dftxluhg wkh nqrz0krz zkloh zrunlqj lq wkhvh qhzo| hvwdeolvkhg upv dqg ghflghg wr vhw xs wkhlu rzq upv wrr1 Dv wkh qxpehu ri qhz upv +dqg/ wkxv/ h{shuwv, surolihudwhg/ wkh nqrz0krz zdv zlgho| vsuhdg dprqj zrunhuv lq wkh lqgxvwu|/ pdnlqj lw hdvlhu iru wkh qhzfrphuv wr vxffhhg1 D fkdudfwhulvwlf ri nqrzohgjh lq wklv prgho lv wkdw lw lv iuhh lq wkh vhqvh wkdw qr uhvrxufhv duh ghyrwhg wr wudlqlqj zrunhuv ru wr dftxlulqj wkh nqrzohgjh1 H{shuwlvh lv dftxluhg dv d e|0surgxfw ri zrunlqj1 Iurp wkh srlqw ri ylhz ri wkh zrunhu/ wkrxjk/ nqrzohgjh lv qrw iuhh1 Wkh zrunhu dffhswv :
orzhu zdjhv wrgd| iru d ehwwhu rssruwxqlw| ri ohduqlqj dqg/ wkxv/ kljkhu zdjhv wrpruurz1 Wkh vwdwlf frvw ri ohduqlqj lv phdvxuhg e| wkh shulrg*v zdjh gl huhqwldo dfurvv vhfwruv1 D vlplodu w|sh ri ohduqlqj lv irxqg lq Sdun +4<<:,1 Lq wkdw prgho/ |rxqj zrunhuv dovr ohduq iurp h{shuw rog zrunhuv wkurxjk wkhlu hyhu| gd| lqwhudfwlrqv1 Qr uhvrxufhv duh xvhg lq wkh ohduqlqj surfhvv/ dqg zrunhuv duh zloolqj wr dffhsw orzhu zdjhv wr zrun zlwk pruh nqrzohgjhdeoh zrunhuv1 Lq Sdun*v prgho shrsoh ohduq wkh vnloov zlwk fhuwdlqw|/ h{shuwv lq wkh vdph lqgxvwu| kdyh gl huhqw ohyhov ri h{shuwlvh dqg zrunhuv zlwk gl huhqw ohyhov ri h{shuwlvh duh shuihfw vxevwlwxwhv lq surgxfwlrq1 Wkh lghd ri ohduqlqj rq0wkh0mre xvhg lq wklv sdshu lv lq wkh vdph vslulw dv wkh ohduqlqj0e|0grlqj olwhudwxuh/ vwduwhg e| Duurz +4<95, dqg hpskdvl}hg dv dq hqjlqh ri jurzwk lq Oxfdv +4<;;/ 4<<6,/ zkhuh h{shuwlvh lqfuhdvhv wkurxjk wkh surgxfwlrq dfwlylw|/ zlwkrxw dq| uhvrxufhv ghyrwhg wr lw1 Wkh ohduqlqj lq p| prgho gl huv iurp ohduqlqj0e|0grlqj lq vhyhudo dvshfwv1 Iluvw/ d zrunhu*v ohduqlqj grhv qrw lqfuhdvh wrwdo idfwru surgxfwlylw| lq wkh lqgxvwu|1 Ohduqlqj lpsolhv ehfrplqj d gl huhqw w|sh ri lqsxw +d vnloohg zrunhu,1 D zrunhu*v ohduqlqj dovr d hfwv wkh delolw| ri ixwxuh zrunhuv wr ohduq wkh vnloov1 Vhfrqg/ jlyhq wkdw wkh vwrfn ri h{shuwv d hfwv wkh surgxfwlylw| ri ohduqlqj dqg qrw wrwdo surgxfwlylw|/ wkhuh duh qr vrfldo ehqh wv iurp ohduqlqj wkdw duh qrw lqwhuqdol}hg e| wkh zrunhu dqg/ wkhuhiruh/ wkh htxloleulxp lq wklv prgho lv h!flhqw1 Lq rxu prgho/ wkh surgxfwlylw| ri wkh xqvnloohg oderu lq hdfk vhfwru ghshqgv rq wkh dprxqw ri h{shuwv lq wkh lqgxvwu| +vwrfn ri lqgxvwu|0vshfl f h{shuwlvh,/ zklfk lv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh suhylrxv shulrg h{shuwlvh dqg wkh qxpehu ri zrunhuv kluhg lq wkh suhylrxv shulrg=
{ r @ {r . +{r ,qr =
;
5141 Wkh hqylurqphqw Wkhuh duh wzr frxqwulhv lq wkh prgho/ lqgh{hg e| n1 Wkhuh duh wzr jrrgv= dq krprjhqhrxv jrrg dqg d gl huhqwldwhg jrrg1 Wkh gl huhqwldwhg jrrg frqwdlqv vhyhudo vhfwruv1 Wkh vhfwruv duh qxpehuhg e| v 5 V @ i4> 5> ===> Vj= Wkhuh lv d phdvxuh o ri lq qlwho|0olyhg shrsoh lq hdfk frxqwu|1 Frxqwu| vl}h pd| eh gl huhqw dfurvv frxqwulhv dqg shrsoh fdqqrw pryh ehwzhhq frxqwulhv1 Shrsoh duh hqgrzhg zlwk rqh xqlw ri wlph zklfk wkh| vxsso| lqhodvwlfdoo|1 Lq dq| shulrg/ wkhuh duh V . 4 w|shv ri shrsoh/ p 5 i3> 4> ===> Vj= D shuvrq*v w|sh lqglfdwhv klv hqgrzphqw ri vnloov1 D shuvrq wkdw dw d srlqw lq wlph lv ri w|sh p> zlwk p 9@ 3> kdv wkh vshfl f vnloov qhhghg iru wkh surgxfwlrq ri jrrg v @ p= Wklv shuvrq zrunv dv dq h{shuw lq wkh surgxfwlrq ri jrrg v +v0h{shuw,1 D shuvrq ri w|sh p @ 3 kdv qr vnloov/ dqg ehfrphv d zrunhu lq dq| vhfwru1 Shrsoh*v hqgrzphqw ri vnloov fkdqjhv ryhu wlph/ ghshqglqj rq wkhlu rffxsdwlrq1 D zrunhu lq vhfwru v dftxluhv wkh vnloov lq wkh vhfwru zlwk suredelolw| +{r @o,> zkhuh {r @o lv wkh iudfwlrq ri h{shuwv ri w|sh v lq wkh frxqwu|1 L wdnh wkh ixqfwlrq +, wr eh lqfuhdvlqj dqg frqfdyh/ wr uhsuhvhqw wkh srvlwlyh h hfw ri wkh qxpehu ri h{shuwv lq wkh zrunhuv* fkdqfhv ri jdlqlqj wkh vnloov1 Vshfl fdoo|/ L dvvxph wkdw ohduqlqj wkh vnloov ri d vshfl f lqgxvwu| lv gl!fxow zkhq wkh frxqwu| kdv ihz h{shuwv lq wkh lqgxvwu|/ lw lqfuhdvhv zlwk wkh qxpehu ri h{shuwv/ exw lw kdv glplqlvklqj uhwxuqv1 Wklv dvvxpswlrq lv phdqw wr fdswxuh wkh zd| lq zklfk nqrzohgjh vsuhdgv1 Li dq lqgxvwu| lq d frxqwu| lv yhu| vpdoo/ olnh wkh jduphqw lqgxvwu| lq Edqjodghvk ehiruh wkh fuhdwlrq ri Ghvk/ lw lv kdug iru zrunhuv wr ohduq wkh lqgxvwu|*v nqrz0krz= wkh| duh h{srvhg wr wkh pdqdjhuldo vnloov ri wkhlu rzq up/ exw wkh| gr qrw rewdlq dq| lqirupdwlrq rq krz h hfwlyh wkh vnloov duh lq wkh pdunhw1 Rqfh wkh lqgxvwu| vwduwv jurzlqj dqg ehfrplqj vxffhvvixo/ zrunhuv duh qrw rqo| h{srvhg wr wkh sudfwlfhv ri wkhlu up/ exw dovr wr wkrvh ri frpshwlqj upv lq wkh lqgxvwu|1 Wkhuh lv d jhqhudo nqrzohgjh derxw wkh lqgxvwu| wkdw pdnhv wkh dvvlplodwlrq ri wkh <
rujdql}dwlrqdo vnloov hdvlhu1 Nqrzohgjh lv shulvkdeoh lq wkh vhqvh wkdw lw qhhgv wr eh xsgdwhg1 L fdswxuh wklv idfw e| dvvxplqj wkdw hdfk h{shuw uhwdlqv wkh vnloo wr wkh qh{w shulrg zlwk vrph suredelolw| dqg orvhv lw zlwk suredelolw| 4 = Whfkqrorj|= 41 Gl huhqwldwhg jrrg= surgxfwlrq wdnhv sodfh dw surgxfwlrq xqlwv +sodqwv,1 Wkh rswlpdo vl}h ri d sodqw lv vpdoo uhodwlyh wr wkh hfrqrp|1 Hdfk sodqw lv vxlwhg wr surgxfh rqo| rqh ri wkh jrrgv1 D sodqw wkdw surgxfhv jrrg v> kdv dv lqsxwv wr wkh surgxfwlrq surfhvv v0h{shuwv> kr > dqg zrunhuv/ qr = Gxulqj wkh surgxfwlrq surfhvv/ vrph ohduqlqj zloo rffxu1 Zrunhuv fdswxuh doo wkh uhqwv iurp ohduqlqj1 51 Krprjhqhrxv jrrg= Wkh lqsxwv duh xqvnloohg oderu dqg d {hg idfwru/ odqg/ lq d frqvwdqw uhwxuqv whfkqrorj|1 L qrupdol}h wkh dprxqw ri odqg wr 4 lq erwk frxqwulhv dqg L dvvxph wkdw doo wkh lqglylgxdov lq wkh frxqwu| rzq dq htxdo vkduh ri wkh {hg idfwru1 Dffxpxodwlrq ri h{shuwlvh= Ohw {& +{& > ===> {&7 , eh wkh glvwulexwlrq ri h{shuwv lq frxqwu| n> dw wlph w> dqg { +{ > {2 ,1 Wkhq/ qh{w shulrg*v glvwulexwlrq ri vnloohg shrsoh zloo eh=
{ r @ + {r . +{r ,qr , yr >
zkhuh yr lv wkh qxpehu ri sodqwv surgxflqj jrrg v wklv shulrg/ { r lv qh{w shulrg*v qxpehu ri h{shuwv lq vhfwru v1 Wklv lv mxvw vd|lqj wkdw wkh qxpehu ri shrsoh zlwk v0vnloov lq wkh qh{w shulrg lv htxdo wr wkh h{shuwv lq wklv shulrg wkdw pdlqwdlq wkhlu vnloov soxv wkh zrunhuv wkdw ohduq wkh vnloo1 Lq zkdw iroorzv/ wlph dqg frxqwu| vxevfulswv duh rplwwhg xqohvv qhfhvvdu|1
43
5151 Wkh hfrqrp| 515141 Suhihuhqfhv dqg frqvxphu*v sureohp Frqvxphuv duh lq qlwho| olyhg dqg ghulyh xwlolw| iurp wkh frqvxpswlrq ri wkh gl huhqw jrrgv lq wkh hfrqrp|1 Wkh| fkrrvh frqvxpswlrq dqg rffxsdwlrq vwuhdpv wr pd{lpl}h wkhlu olihwlph glvfrxqwhg h{shfwhg xwlolw|1 Wkhlu shulrg suhihuhqfhv duh krprwkhwlf/ uhsuhvhqwhg e| wkh xwlolw| ixqfwlrq= S
x+f, @
7 r' dr fr
K
fM3K
4
4
>
zkhuh > 3 4> jryhuqv wkh hodvwlflw| ri vxevwlwxwlrq 4@+4, ehwzhhq ydulhwlhv ri wkh gl huhqwldwhg jrrg/ e> 3 e 4> lv wkh frqvxpswlrq vkduh ri wkh gl huhqwldwhg pdqxidfwxuhg jrrg/ dqg/ > 4> jryhuqv wkh lqwhuwhpsrudo hodvwlflw| ri vxevwlwxwlrq1 L qrupdol}h
S
dr @ 4= Frqvxphuv glvfrxqw wkh
ixwxuh dw d udwh > 3 ? ? 4= Iru vlpsolflw|/ wr nhhs wkh qxpehu ri w|shv {hg ryhu wlph/ eruurzlqj dqg ohqglqj duh qrw doorzhg1 Wkhuhiruh/ lqglylgxdov frqvxph wkhlu hqwluh lqfrph hyhu| shulrg1 Wklv dvvxpswlrq pdnhv wkh frqvxpswlrq fkrlfh vwdwlf/ dqg ohwv xv frqfhqwudwh rq wkh rffxsdwlrqdo fkrlfh/ zklfk lv d nh| ihdwxuh ri wkh g|qdplfv ri wklv prgho1 Wkh rffxsdwlrqdo fkrlfh lv gulylqj wkh g|qdplfv lq wkh frqvxphu*v sureohp1 Zkhq ghflglqj dprqj gl huhqw rffxsdwlrqv/ zrunhuv wdnh lqwr dffrxqw wkh h hfw wkdw wkhlu ghflvlrq zloo kdyh lq wkhlu ixwxuh hduqlqjv1 D zrunhu lq dq vhfwru zlwk d orw ri h{shuwv lv zloolqj wr dffhsw d orzhu zdjh wrgd| vlqfh klv suredelolw| ri ehfrplqj vnloohg lq wkh lqgxvwu| lv kljkhu1 & & Gh qh wkh vhtxhqfh ri sulfhv dqg zdjhv lq wkh hfrqrp| dv S @ isr| > zr| > h&r| > sM| > zM| > h&M| jrc&c|
dqg ohw { eh wkh wlph vhtxhqfh ri glvwulexwlrq ri h{shuwv lq erwk frxqwulhv1 L ghqrwh e| Yf| +S> {, wkh glvfrxqwhg h{shfwhg xwlolw| ri dq xqvnloohg lqglylgxdo dw wlph w/ jlyhq wkh vhtxhqfh ri sulfhv dqg glvwulexwlrq ri vnloov1 Vlqfh wklv lqglylgxdo kdv qr vnloov/ klv fkrlfh lv wr ghflgh lq zklfk vhfwru wr zrun1 44
Li Zr| +S> {, lv wkh h{shfwhg glvfrxqwhg xwlolw| ri d zrunhu lq vhfwru v lq shulrg w> dqg ZM| +S> {, lv wkh h{shfwhg glvfrxqwhg xwlolw| ri d zrunhu surgxflqj wkh krprjhqhrxv jrrg/ dq xqvnloohg lqglylgxdo fkrrvhv wr zrun lq dq| lqgxvwu| wkdw jlyhv klp wkh pd{lpdo h{shfwhg xwlolw|=
Yf| +S> {, @ pd{iZr| +S> {,> ZM| +S> {,j= r
Ohw Yr| +S> {, eh wkh glvfrxqwhg h{shfwhg xwlolw| ri dq lqglylgxdo zlwk v0vnloov1 Wklv lqglylgxdo zrunv dv dq h{shuw lq vhfwru v1 Qrwlfh wkdw vlqfh zrunhuv lq gl huhqw lqgxvwulhv kdyh gl huhqw suredelolwlhv ri ohduqlqj wkh vnloov/ wkh| hduq gl huhqw zdjhv1 Zrunhuv lq vhfwruv zlwk kljkhu srvvlelolwlhv ri ohduqlqj duh zloolqj wr dffhsw orzhu0wkdq0dyhudjh zdjhv lq wkh krsh ri ehqh wlqj iurp wkh ohduqlqj1 D shuvrq zkr kdv ghflghg wr eh d zrunhu lq vhfwru v fkrrvhv d ohyho ri frqvxpswlrq1 Vlqfh L gr qrw doorz eruurzlqj ru ohqglqj/ wkh lqglylgxdo vshqgv doo ri klv lqfrph lq frqvxpswlrq jrrgv1 Rffxsdwlrq lv/ wkhuhiruh/ wkh rqo| uhdo fkrlfh iru frqvxphuv lq wklv prgho1 Qrwlfh wkdw dq lqglylgxdo*v ohyho ri lqfrph ghshqgv rq klv rffxsdwlrq/ vlqfh gl huhqw lqgxvwulhv sd| gl huhqw zdjhv1 Wkh glvfrxqwhg h{shfwhg xwlolw| iru d zrunhu lq vhfwru v lq shulrg w lv=
Zr| +S> {, @ pd{ ix+f| , . ^+{r| ,Yr|n +S> {, . +4 +{r| ,,Yf|n +S> {,`j S
v=w= [ r
sr | fr | . sM| fM| zr| . | >
zkhuh sr | lv wkh sulfh ri frqvxpswlrq jrrg v lq shulrg w/ sM| lv wkh sulfh ri wkh krprjhqhrxv jrrg/ zr| lv wkh zdjh uhfhlyhg e| d zrunhu lq vhfwru v> dqg | duh wkh shu fdslwd uhwxuqv rq wkh {hg idfwru1 Doo wkhvh wkuhh ixqfwlrqv duh wdnhq dv jlyhq e| wkh lqglylgxdov1 Ohw r| eh wkh iudfwlrq ri zrunhuv wkdw
45
fkrrvh wr zrun lq vhfwru v= Wkh glvfrxqwhg h{shfwhg xwlolw| dw shulrg w iru d zrunhu lq wkh krprjhqhrxv surgxfw lqgxvwu| lv=
ZM| +S> {, @ pd{ ix+f| , . Yf|n +S> {,j S
v=w= [ r
sr | fr | . sM| fM| zM| . | >
zkhuh zM| lv wkh zdjh uhfhlyhg e| d zrunhu lq wkh krprjhqhrxv vhfwru1 Ohw M| eh wkh iudfwlrq ri zrunhuv wkdw fkrrvh wr zrun lq wkh krprjhqhrxv vhfwru= Wkh glvfrxqwhg h{shfwhg xwlolw| iru dq h{shuw lq vhfwru v dw shulrg w lv=
Yr| +S> {, @ pd{ ix+f| , . ^ Yr|n +S> {, . +4 ,Yf|n +S> {,`j S
v=w= [ r
sr | fr | . sM| fM| hr| . | >
zkhuh hr| lv wkh zdjh uhfhlyhg e| dq v0h{shuw lq shulrg w1 Iurp wkh frqvxphuv* sureohpv L ghulyh wkh ghpdqg ixqfwlrqv iru hdfk jrrg l 5 V ^iKj ri shrsoh lq hdfk ri wkh rffxsdwlrqv= zrunhuv lq vhfwru v/ f r| +S> {,> zrunhuv lq wkh krprjhqhrxv lqgxvwu|/ fM| +S> {,>
dqg h{shuwv lq lqgxvwu| v> fer| +S> {,= Qrwlfh/ rqfh djdlq/ wkdw wkhvh ixqfwlrqv pljkw gl hu vlqfh gl huhqw rffxsdwlrqv sd| gl huhqw zdjhv1
515151 Sodqwv* sureohp +gl huhqwldwhg lqgxvwu|, Surgxfwlrq sodqwv duh jrrg vshfl f1 D sodqw lv vxlwdeoh wr surgxfh rqo| rqh ri wkh frqvxpswlrq jrrgv lq wkh hfrqrp|1 L dvvxph wkdw wkh rswlpdo vl}h ri d sodqw lv vpdoo zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh hfrqrp|/ vr wkdw surgxfwlrq sodqwv wdnh sulfhv dqg djjuhjdwh yduldeohv dv jlyhq1 D sodqw surgxflqj jrrg v/ dq 46
v0sodqw/ kluhv v0h{shuwv/ kr > dqg zrunhuv/ qr > wr pd{lpl}h lwv sur wv1 L dvvxph iuhh hqwu| lq hdfk ri wkh lqgxvwulhv1 Lq wklv vlwxdwlrq/ surgxfwlrq sodqwv zloo pdnh }hur sur wv/ dqg rshudwh dw wkhlu plqlpxp dyhudjh frvw1 Doo sodqwv lq dq lqgxvwu| kdyh lghqwlfdo surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrqv1 Ohw i +k> q, ghqrwh wkh sodqw*v surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrq1 Lw lv dvvxphg wkdw lw lv ri wkh irup i+k> q, @ q
r
kw j+q,> zkhuh wkh ixqfwlrq j+q, lv vxfk wkdw wkhuh h{lvwv qW 5 +3> .4, vxfk wkdw qW @ duj pd{ qw3 j+q, dqg i+k> q, lv vwulfwo| frqfdyh18 Iroorzlqj whfkqltxhv e| Kruqvwhlq dqg Suhvfrww +4<<6, L fdq xvh djjuhjdwlrq wkhru| wr gh qh d vhfwru djjuhjdwh ixqfwlrq/ I +K> Q,/ wkdw jlyhv wkh djjuhjdwh rxwsxw lq hdfk vhfwru jlyhq wkh djjuhjdwh dprxqw ri lqsxwv kluhg19 Ohppd 5141 Ohw D @ +qW ,w3 j+qW ,= Li i+k> q, lv vwulfwo| frqfdyh/ wkh lqglylgxdo surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrqv lq hdfk lqgxvwu| fdq eh djjuhjdwhg wr wkh iroorzlqj djjuhjdwh surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrq=
I +K> Q, @ DK w Q 3w >
zkhuh K dqg Q duh wkh wrwdo dprxqw ri h{shuwv dqg zrunhuv kluhg e| wkh lqgxvwu| lq wkh frxqwu| dqg qW lv wkh rswlpdo sodqw vl}h1 Iurp qrz rq L zrun zlwk wkh djjuhjdwh surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrq/ nhhslqj lq plqg wkdw vlqfh surgxfwlrq wdnhv sodfh lq vpdoo sodqwv/ surgxfhuv duh sulfh wdnhuv1 Wkh djjuhjdwh ghpdqg iru h{shuwv dqg zrunhuv lq hdfk lqgxvwu|/ ghqrwhg e| kr dqg qr uhvshfwlyho|/ fkrvhq lq htxloleulxp vroyhv wkh iroorzlqj plqlpl}dwlrq 8 9
?W lv wkh rswlpdo sodqw vl}h1 Dq h{dpsoh zrxog eh }E? ' E? 3 _ k c zlwk _ : f dqg k n w D ghwdlohg surri ri wkh ohppd fdq eh irxqg lq d whfkqlfdo dsshqgl{ wr wklv sdshu/ dydlodeoh xsrq uhtxhvw1
47
sureohp plq ihr kr . zr qr j v=w= Dr kwrr qr3wr |r dqg sr |r hr kr zr qr @ 3 zkhuh sr > hr > dqg zr zhuh gh qhg ehiruh dqg duh/ uhvshfwlyho|/ wkh sulfh ri wkh jrrg/ wkh zdjh sdlg wr v0h{shuwv/ dqg wkh zdjh sdlg wr zrunhuv lq vhfwru v=
515161 Krprjhqhrxv lqgxvwu| Surgxfwlrq lq wkh krprjhqhrxv lqgxvwu| wdnhv xqvnloohg oderu dqg odqg/ O> +d {hg idfwru/ qrupdol}hg wr 4 lq erwk frxqwulhv,1 Wkh whfkqrorj| lv uhsuhvhqwhg e| wkh surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrq=
IM +qM , @ DM qwMM O3wM >
zlwk 3 ? M 4=
61 Htxloleulxp Lq wklv vhfwlrq L gh qh dqg fkdudfwhul}h dq htxloleulxp iru wklv hfrqrp|1
6141 Gh qlwlrq ri htxloleulxp Gh qlwlrq 6141 Dq htxloleulxp iru wklv hfrqrp|/ jlyhq lqlwldo frqglwlrqv txhqfhv= +4, glvfrxqwhg xwlolwlhv
q
& Yf&| > Yr|& > ZM| > Zr|&
48
r rc&c|
q
{&rf
r rc&
> lv d vhw ri vh0
> +5, frqvxpswlrq yhfwruv iru zrunhuv dqg
h{shuwv
q
& & e & +f r| , > +fM| , > +fr| ,
q
r rcc&c|
& lqgxvwu| doorfdwlrqv k&r| > q&r| > |r|
q
xwlrq ri h{shuwv {&r|
r rc&c|
q
> +6, djjuhjdwh rffxsdwlrqdo fkrlfhv &M| > &r|
r
rc&c|
q
& > q&M| > |M|
r |
q
r rc&c|
& & > +8, sulfhv sr| > sM| > zr| > h&r| > zM|
> +7, djjuhjdwh
r
rc&c|
> +9, glvwule0
/ vxfk wkdw=
+l, frqvxphuv pd{lpl}h h{shfwhg glvfrxqwhg xwlolw| jlyhq wkhlu exgjhw frqvwudlqwv/ +ll, wkh djjuhjdwh lqgxvwu| doorfdwlrqv vroyh wkh plqlpl}dwlrq sureohp vwdwhg deryh/ +lll, pdunhwv fohdu=
k&r| @ {&r|
q&r| @ &r| +o&
[ r
[ &cr
& {&r| +fer| ,& . q&r| +f . r| ,
[ r
{&r| ,
&r| . &M| @ 4
[ &
& 2 q&M| +f M| , @ || . ||
l 5 V ^ iKj>
zkhuh r| lv wkh iudfwlrq ri zrunhuv lq lqgxvwu| v dqg M| lv wkh iudfwlrq ri zrunhuv lq wkh krprjhqhrxv vhfwru1 q
+ly, {&r|
r rc&c|
iroorzv wkh odz ri prwlrq ri wkh glvwulexwlrq ri vnloov=
{&r|n @ {&r| . +{&r| ,q&r| =
49
Wkh pdunhw fohdulqj frqglwlrqv vlpso| vwdwh wkdw lq htxloleulxp wkh txdqwlwlhv ghpdqghg ri h{shuwv dqg zrunhuv lq hdfk lqgxvwu|/ dv zhoo dv wkh wrwdo ghpdqg ri frqvxpswlrq jrrgv/ kdyh wr eh htxdo wr wkh txdqwlwlhv vxssolhg1 Wkh frqvlvwhqf| frqglwlrq kdv wr gr zlwk wkh suhglfwlrqv wdnhq e| wkh frqvxphuv zkhq pdnlqj wkhlu ghflvlrqv= wkh suhglfwlrqv pdgh e| wkh frqvxphuv kdyh wr frlqflgh zlwk wkh dfwxdo djjuhjdwh yduldeohv lq htxloleulxp1
6151 Fkdudfwhul}dwlrq ri htxloleulxp Wkh fuxfldo ghflvlrq lq wklv prgho lv wkh zrunhuv* ghflvlrq rq zkhuh wr hpsor| wkhlu oderu1 Zrunhuv fkrrvh wkh rffxsdwlrq wkdw pd{lpl}hv wkhlu h{shfwhg olihwlph xwlolw|1 Wkhuhiruh/ li wkhuh duh lqglylgxdov zloolqj wr zrun iru wzr gl huhqw lqgxvwulhv/ wkhlu h{shfwhg xwlolw| zrunlqj lq erwk lqgxvwulhv kdv wr frlqflgh1 Wkxv/ lq htxloleulxp/ wkh iudfwlrq ri zrunhuv zrunlqj lq lqgxvwu| v> r| > vdwlv hv= +l, r| @ 3 li Zr| +S> {, ? Yf| +S> {, +ll, r| 5 ^3> 4` li Zr| +S> {, @ Yf| +S> {,= Rqfh lqglylgxdov kdyh pdgh wkhlu rffxsdwlrqdo ghflvlrq/ wkh| fkrrvh krz pxfk ri wkhlu shulrg*v lqfrph wr vshqg lq hdfk ri wkh jrrgv1 Qrwlfh wkdw vlqfh L gr qrw doorz eruurzlqj ru ohqglqj/ lqglylgxdov vshqg doo wkhlu shulrg*v lqfrph lq wkh shulrg*v frqvxpswlrq1 Wkh uhvw ri wkh htxdwlrqv wkdw fkdudfwhul}h htxloleulxp duh ghulyhg xvlqj vwdqgdug phwkrgv1: Xqghu v|pphwu| dvvxpswlrqv L dp deoh wr fkdudfwhul}h wkh vwhdg| vwdwh ri d vlpsol hg yhuvlrq ri wkh prgho zlwk wzr gl huhqwldwhg vhfwruv dqg qr krprjhqhrxv vhfwru dqdo|wlfdoo|1 Wkh g|qdplfv ri wkh prgho kdyh wr eh vwxglhg qxphulfdoo|1 Lq zkdw iroorzv L vxppdul}h wkh uhvxowv ri vxfk fkdudfwhul}dwlrq dqg suhvhqw wkh ehkdylru ri wkh prgho zlwk uhvshfw wr lqlwldo frqglwlrqv dqg wkh qdwxuh ri wkh ohduqlqj ixqfwlrq1 D irupdo ghulydwlrq ri wkhvh uhvxowv lv suhvhqwhg lq wkh zrunlqj sdshu yhuvlrq ri wklv vwxg|1; : ;
Wkh ghulydwlrq lv grqh lq dq dsshqgl{ ri wklv sdshu/ dydlodeoh xsrq uhtxhvw1 Vhh Edmrqd +5335,1
4:
Wkh qdwxuh ri wkh htxloleulxp ghshqgv fuxfldoo| rq wkh fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh ohduqlqj ixqfwlrq1 Li wkh suredelolw| ri ohduqlqj lv frqvwdqw +lqghshqghqw ri wkh frqfhqwudwlrq ri vhfwru0vshfl f h{shuwlvh, wkh prgho kdv d frqwlqxxp ri vwhdg| vwdwhv1 Wkhvh vwhdg| vwdwhv kdyh wkh vdph sulfhv/ zdjhv/ dqg zruogzlgh iudfwlrq ri h{shuwv lq hdfk lqgxvwu|/ dqg rqo| gl hu lq wkh zd| wkh lqgxvwu|0vshfl f h{shuwv duh vsolw dfurvv frxqwulhv1< Wr zklfk vwhdg| vwdwh wkh hfrqrp| frqyhujhv ghshqgv rq wkh lqlwldo glvwulexwlrq ri h{shuwv1 Wkh wudgh0wr0lqfrph udwlr vwd|v frqvwdqw dorqj wkh htxloleulxp sdwk1 Li wkh ohduqlqj ixqfwlrq lv lqfuhdvlqj dqg frqfdyh zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh iudfwlrq ri lqgxvwu|0vshfl f h{shuwv +dqg/ wkxv/ wkhuh duh srvlwlyh h hfwv rq ohduqlqj, wkh ehkdylru ri wkh prgho lv gudvwlfdoo| gl huhqw1 Wkhuh h{lvw rqo| wzr w|shv ri vwhdg| vwdwhv= dq dxwdufklf vwhdg| vwdwh/ zkhuh erwk frxqwulhv glyhuvli|/ dqg wzr rwkhu vwhdg| vwdwhv zkhuh erwk frxqwulhv vshfldol}h/ li wkh vl}h ri wkh frxqwulhv lv vlplodu hqrxjk/ ru d sduwldo vshfldol}dwlrq vwhdg| vwdwh zkhuh wkh elj frxqwu| glyhuvl hv dqg wkh vpdoo frxqwu| vshfldol}hv1 Wr zklfk ri wkhvh vwhdg| vwdwhv wkh hfrqrp| frqyhujhv ghshqgv rq wkh lqlwldo glvwulexwlrq ri h{shuwv1 Li frxqwulhv vwduw lq dxwdufk|/ zlwk wkh vdph glvwulexwlrq ri h{shuwv lq hdfk frxqwu|/ wkh| vwd| lq dxwdufk| iruhyhu1 Rwkhuzlvh/ frxqwulhv hlwkhu frpsohwho| vshfldol}h +li d frpsohwh vshfldol}dwlrq htxloleulxp h{lvwv, ru sduwldoo| vshfldol}h +li d sduwldo vshfldol}dwlrq htxloleulxp h{lvwv,1 Lq rwkhu zrugv/ wkh dxwdufklf vwhdg| vwdwh lv xqvwdeoh1 Hyhq wkrxjk frxqwulhv frqyhujh wr d vshfldol}dwlrq htxloleulxp/ wkh prgho gholyhuv frqyhujhqfh lq whupv ri lqfrph ohyhov1 Wklv uhvxow fdq eh uhodwhg wr wkh olwhudwxuh rq frqyhujhqfh dqg wudgh43 1 Wklv olwhudwxuh kdv srlqwhg rxw wkdw lq g|qdplf yhuvlrqv ri wkh Khfnvkhu0Rkolq prgho srru frxqwulhv gr qrw qhhg wr jurz idvwhu wkdq ulfk frxqwulhv dqg gr qrw qhhg wr frqyhujh wr wkh vdph lqfrph shu fdslwd1 Fuxfldo wr wkhvh uhvxowv lv wkh h{lvwhqfh ri d frqwlqxxp ri vwhdg| vwdwh lq wkhlu prghov1 Lq wkh <
Wklv uhvxow lv dqdorjrxv wr wkh vwhdg| vwdwh uhvxowv ghulyhg iurp g|qdplf Khfnvfkhu0Rkolq prghov/ zkhuh vwhdg| vwdwh zruog fdslwdo dqg sulfhv duh ghwhuplqhg/ exw qrw lwv glvwulexwlrq dfurvv frxqwulhv1 Vhh iru lqvwdqfh Ed{whu +4<<5, dqg Edmrqd dqg Nhkrh +5335,1 43 Vhh Yhqwxud +4<<:,/ Dwnhvrq dqg Nhkrh +4<<<, dqg Edmrqd dqg Nhkrh +5335,1
4;
prgho ri wklv sdshu frxqwulhv ri wkh vdph vl}h frpsohwho| vshfldol}h lq vwhdg| vwdwh1 Wkhuhiruh/ L rewdlq frqyhujhqfh lq lqfrph ohyhov1 Dq lqwhuhvwlqj uhvxow wkdw L rewdlq khuh/ wkrxjk/ lv wkdw wkhuh lv glyhujhqfh lq wkh glvwulexwlrq ri vnloov/ dqg wkhuhiruh/ wkh wudgh wr lqfrph udwlr lqfuhdvhv ryhu wlph1 Wkdw lv/ wkh prgho gholyhuv wudgh lq dq hqylurqphqw zkhuh frxqwulhv frqyhujh lq whupv ri lqfrph ohyhov1 Zkhwkhu uhod{lqj wkh v|pphwu| dvvxpswlrq zrxog fkdqjh wkh frqyhujhqfh uhvxowv lv ohiw iru ixuwkhu uhvhdufk/ exw suholplqdu| uhvxowv vxjjhvw wkdw zlwkrxw pdnlqj hvvhqwldo fkdqjhv lq wkh prgho wkh h{lvwlqj uhvxow zloo suhydlo1 Ixuwkhu uhvhdufk zloo frqvlghu wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh iudfwlrq ri h{shuwv lq hdfk vhfwru lpsuryhv wrwdo idfwru surgxfwlylw|1 Wklv ihdwxuh/ wrjhwkhu zlwk dv|pphwulhv lq wkh vnloo lqwhqvlw| ri wkh jrrgv/ frxog ohdg wr vlwxdwlrqv zkhuh frxqwulhv gr qrw frqyhujh lq lqfrph ohyhov1
71 Vlpxodwlrqv ri wkh prgho hfrqrp| Lq wklv vhfwlrq L vlpxodwh wkh prgho iru d vshfl f vhw ri sdudphwhuv1 Wkh remhfwlyh ri wklv h{huflvh lv wr vkrz lq d qxphulfdo h{dpsoh krz wklv prgho fdq jhqhudwh/ iru uhdvrqdeoh sdudphwhuv/ dq lqfuhdvh lq wudgh ryhu wlph wkdw lv vlplodu wr wkh rqh h{shulhqfhg lq ghyhorshg frxqwulhv gxulqj wkh srvwzdu shulrg1 Wkh lqfuhdvh lq wudgh lv gulyhq e| judgxdo vshfldol}dwlrq lq surgxfwlrq1 Lq rughu wr vwxg| wkh surshuwlhv ri wklv prgho L vwduw e| frqvlghulqj d vlpsoh fdvh1 L frqvlghu irxu gl huhqwldwhg pdqxidfwxuhg jrrgv/ V @ 7= L dvvxph wkdw erwk frxqwulhv duh ri wkh vdph vl}h= o @ o2 @ 4= Frxqwulhv duh v|pphwulf lq wkhlu lqlwldo glvwulexwlrqv ri vnloov lq wkh iroorzlqj vhqvh= iru hdfk vhfwru v/ wkhuh lv dqrwkhu vhfwru v 9@ v vxfk wkdw {r @ {2r dqg {r @ {2r = L fkdudfwhul}h vhfwruv v dqg v > dv v|pphwulf1 D v|pphwulf prgho lpsolhv wkdw iru hdfk vhfwru lq wkh uvw frxqwu|/ wkhuh lv dqrwkhu vhfwru lq wkh vhfrqg frxqwu| zlwk wkh vdph glvwulexwlrq ri h{shuwv1 L wdnh wkh whfkqrorj| lq wkh gl huhqwldwhg lqgxvwu| wr eh wkh vdph dfurvv vhfwruv1 Xqghu wkhvh dvvxpswlrqv/ v|pphwulf vhfwruv ehkdyh lghqwlfdoo| lq erwk frxqwulhv1 Lq zkdw iroorzv/ L uhsruw vlpxodwlrq uhvxowv iru frxqwu| 41 Frxqwu| 4<
5 ehkdyhv h{dfwo| olnh frxqwu| 4 diwhu dffrxqwlqj iru wkh v|pphwu|1 Wkh qh{w wdeoh suhvhqwv wkh ydoxhv iru wkh sdudphwhuv iru wkh ehqfkpdun hfrqrp|=
Suhihuhqfhv
Srs1
Whfkqrorj|
Ghsu1
Sdudphwhu
dr
e
o
r
M
Dr
DM
4
Ydoxh
3158
3198
413
31<8
318
413
319
318
413
413
315
L dvvxph wkdw doo gl huhqwldwhg jrrgv hqwhu wkh xwlolw| ixqfwlrq v|pphwulfdoo|1 Wkhuhiruh/ L wdnh dr @ 3=58 iru doo v1 Wkh gl huhqwldwhg jrrg*v vkduh ri frqvxpswlrq/ e> lv wdnhq wr eh 3198/ frqvlvwhqw zlwk Ehujrhlqj +4<<9,1 Wkh fkrlfh ri pdnhv rqh shulrg wr fruuhvsrqg urxjko| wr rqh |hdu1 Srsxodwlrq lv qrupdol}hg wr eh htxdo wr 4 lq hdfk frxqwu|1 Wkh nh| dvshfw ri wkh prgho lv wkh ohduqlqj ixqfwlrq1 Lq wklv ehqfkpdun yhuvlrq/ zrunhuv lq vhfwru v fdq rqo| ohduq wkh vnloov lqyroyhg lq wkh surgxfwlrq ri jrrg v= Wkh suredelolw| ri dftxlulqj wkh vnloov ghshqgv rq wkh iudfwlrq ri wkh frxqwu|*v srsxodwlrq wkdw pdvwhuv wkh nqrz0krz1 Wkh pdlq dvvxpswlrq derxw wkh ohduqlqj ixqfwlrq lv wkdw lw lv lqfuhdvlqj dqg frqfdyh lq wkh qxpehu ri h{shuwv1 Li wkhuh duh qr h{shuwv lq wkh hfrqrp|/ lqglylgxdov fdq vwloo ohduq wkh vnloov zlwk d vpdoo suredelolw|1 Frqfdylw| lqwurgxfhv glplqlvklqj uhwxuqv rq h{shuwlvh lq wkh ohduqlqj whfkqrorj|1 Wkh vshfl f ixqfwlrqdo irup fkrvhq iru wkh vlpxodwlrqv lv wkh iroorzlqj=
+{, @ gf . g +{@o,_2
Iru wkh ehqfkpdun hfrqrp| wkh sdudphwhuv fkrvhq duh= gf @ 3=4> g @ 3=:> g2 @ 3=<= Li wkhuh duh qr h{shuwv/ 43( ri zrunhuv lq wkh vhfwru fdq dftxluh wkh vnloov1 Zh fdq wklqn ri wklv suredelolw| dv frplqj iurp h{rjhqrxv nqrzohgjh ri wkh lqglylgxdo wkdw doorzv klp wr jxuh rxw wkh surgxfwlrq surfhvv rq
53
klv rzq1 Lq wkh hqg/ hyhq li doo wkh srsxodwlrq kdv h{shuwlvh lq wkh lqgxvwu|/ wkh zrunhu*v suredelolw| ri ohduqlqj lv 3=;= Lq zkdw iroorzv L frqvlghu gl huhqw lqlwldo glvwulexwlrqv ri h{shuwlvh dfurvv vhfwruv dqg uhsruw wkh gl huhqw sdwwhuqv ri vshfldol}dwlrq dv zhoo dv wkh hyroxwlrq ri wkh wudgh0wr0lqfrph udwlr1 Wkh lqlwldo frqglwlrqv zloo eh wdnhq dv d ghyldwlrq ri wkh v|pphwulf vwhdg| vwdwh ri wkh prgho/ zkhuh erwk frxqwulhv surgxfh wkh vdph dprxqw ri doo wkh jrrgv dqg wkhuh lv qr wudgh1 Wkh glvwulexwlrq ri h{shuwv iru wklv v|pphwulf vwhdg| vwdwh/ jlyhq wkh sdudphwhuv phqwlrqhg deryh/ lv { a @ 3=3<6;8= Gl huhqw lqlwldo frqglwlrqv ohdg wr gl huhqw sdwwhuqv ri vshfldol}dwlrq1 Ohw xv frqvlghu uvw d vlwx0 dwlrq lq zklfk frxqwu| rqh kdv pruh h{shuwv lq lqgxvwulhv 4 dqg 5/ dqg frxqwu| wzr kdv pruh h{shuwv lq lqgxvwulhv 6 dqg 71 Lq sduwlfxodu/ wkh lqlwldo frqglwlrqv wdnhq duh +{ > {2 > { > {e , @ +3=<> 3=<> 3=:> 3=:,a { dqg +{2 > {22 > {2 > {2e , @ +3=:> 3=:> 3=<> 3=<,a {= Iljxuh 714 vkrzv wkh hyroxwlrq ri wkh glvwulexwlrq ri h{shuwv lq hdfk lqgxvwu| iru frxqwu| rqh1 Frxqwu| wzr ehkdyhv v|pphwulfdoo|= lqgxvwulhv 6 dqg 7 h{sdqg dqg lqgxvwulhv 4 dqg 5 ghfd|1 Qrwlfh wkdw zh rewdlq v|pphwu| ehwzhhq lqgxvwulhv zlwk wkh vdph hqgrzphqwv1 Lq wklv fdvh erwk frxqwulhv judgxdoo| vshfldol}h lq wkh surgxfwlrq ri wkh jrrgv lq zklfk wkh| kdyh d uhodwlyho| kljk hqgrzphqw ri h{shuwv1 Lq wkh olplw frpsohwh vshfldol}dwlrq rffxuv1 Wkh h{sodqdwlrq iru judgxdo vshfldol}dwlrq lv wkh iroorzlqj= wr frqwlqxh surgxflqj lq wkh ghfd|lqj lqgxvwu|/ zrunhuv lq wklv lqgxvwu| qhhg wr eh sdlg kljkhu zdjhv wkdq lq wkh h{sdqglqj lqgxvwu| +zdjhv iru xqvnloohg zrunhuv lq hdfk ri wkh lqgxvwulhv duh vkrzq lq jxuh 7,1 Wkhuhiruh/ ihzhu zrunhuv duh kluhg lq wkh ghfd|lqj lqgxvwu| dqg ihzhu ri wkhp ohduq wkh vnloov dqg frqwulexwh wr wkh vwrfn ri h{shuwv lq wkdw lqgxvwu| wkh shulrg diwhu1 Wkh vwrfn ri h{shuwlvh judgxdoo| gl huv ehwzhhq erwk lqgxvwulhv/ gh qlqj wkh sdwwhuq ri vshfldol}dwlrq1 Qrwlfh wkdw frxqwulhv gr qrw wudgh lq wkh krprjhqhrxv jrrg= gxh wr wkh v|pphwu| ri wkh prgho/ erwk frxqwulhv surgxfh wkh vdph dprxqw ri wkh krprjhqhrxv jrrg1 54
Iljxuh 715 suhvhqwv wkh hyroxwlrq ri wkh wudgh0wr0lqfrph udwlr1 Vlqfh hdfk frxqwu| judgxdoo| vsh0 fldol}hv ryhu wlph/ wkh udwlr lqfuhdvhv ryhu wlph dv zhoo1 Wklv lv wkh pdlq txdolwdwlyh uhvxow ri wkh prgho1 D fduhixo fdoleudwlrq ri wkh prgho lv qhhghg iru dq| txdqwlwdwlyh uhvxowv/ exw zh fdq vhh wkdw zlwk wkh sdudphwhuv fkrvhq/ lq d shulrg ri 68 |hduv wkh wudgh0wr0lqfrph udwlr lqfuhdvhv e| pruh wkdq d idfwru ri 81 Wkh prgho lv deoh wr surgxfh kxjh lqfuhdvhv lq wkh wudgh0wr0lqfrph udwlr zlwkrxw wkh qhhg ri kljk hodvwlflwlhv ri vxevwlwxwlrq ehwzhhq jrrgv1
0.25
x1,x2
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
x3,x4
0.00 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
period
Iljxuh 714= H{dpsoh 41 Glvwulexwlrq ri h{shuwv lq frxqwu| 41 Iljxuh 716 sorwv wkh zdjhv uhfhlyhg e| zrunhuv lq hdfk lqgxvwu|1 Zh revhuyh wkdw zdjhv lq wkh ghfd|lqj vhfwruv duh kljkhu wkdq lq wkh h{sdqglqj vhfwruv1 Wr dwwudfw zrunhuv wr d ghfd|lqj vhfwru kljkhu zdjhv kdyh wr eh sdlg1 Vlqfh wkh zrunhuv* suredelolw| ri dftxlulqj wkh vnloov lq wkh ghfd|lqj vhfwruv lv orzhu wkdq lq wkh h{sdqglqj vhfwruv/ zrunhuv lq wkh ghfd|lqj vhfwruv kdyh wr eh frpshqvdwhg zlwk kljkhu zdjhv1 Zdjhv lq wkh krprjhqhrxv vhfwru duh frqvlvwhqwo| kljkhu wkdq lq wkh gl huhqwldwhg lqgxvwulhv/ vlqfh wkhuh duh qr vnloov wr eh ohduqhg lq wkdw vhfwru dqg/ wkhuhiruh/ qr h{shfwdwlrqv ri kljkhu 55
0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
period
Iljxuh 715= H{dpsoh 41 Wudgh0wr0lqfrph udwlr1 sdlg mrev lq wkh ixwxuh1 Wkh vdodulhv ri vnloohg shrsoh duh sorwwhg lq jxuh 7171 Qrwlfh wkdw h{shuwv lq vhfwruv 4 dqg 5/ wkh h{sdqglqj lqgxvwu|/ jhw kljkhu zdjhv wkdq h{shuwv lq wkh rwkhu vhfwruv/ dqg pxfk kljkhu zdjhv wkdq zrunhuv lq dq| ri wkh vhfwruv1 Wklv/ wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh orzhu zdjhv iru udz oderu/ lqglfdwhv wkdw wkh pl{wxuh ri w|shv ri oderu lq wkh h{sdqglqj lqgxvwu| lv eldvhg wr udz oderu1 Li zh lqwhusuhw vnloohg zrunhuv dv zrunhuv zkr kdyh ehhq lq wkh lqgxvwu| iru vrph wlph/ wklv prgho zrxog lpso| wkdw h{sruwlqj vhfwruv vkrxog kdyh vkruwhu mre whqxuh wkdq lpsruwlqj vhfwruv1 Wklv vkruwhu mre whqxuh zrxog eh wkh uhvxow ri kljkhu prelolw| ri zrunhuv zlwklq wkh vhfwru= zrunhuv ohdylqj wkhlu mrev wr vhw xs qhz upv lq wkh vdph vhfwru1 Frpsdulqj zdjhv dqg vdodulhv ryhu wlph/ zh revhuyh d uhgxfwlrq ri wkh ryhudoo zdjh jds1 Wklv uhvxow vhhpv dw rggv zlwk wkh lqfuhdvh lq wkh zdjh jds ehwzhhq hgxfdwhg dqg xqhgxfdwhg zrunhuv revhuyhg lq wkh XV gdwd1 Lw lv lpsruwdqw wr nhhs lq plqg wkdw wklv prgho rqo| frqvlghuv wudgh ehwzhhq ghyhorshg
56
0.16 0.14
wh
0.12
w3, w4
0.10
w1, w2
0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
period
Iljxuh 716= H{dpsoh 41 Zdjhv ri xqvnloohg zrunhuv lq frxqwu| 41
0.25
e1, e2
0.20
0.15
e3, e4
0.10
0.05
0.00 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
period
Iljxuh 717= H{dpsoh 41 Zdjhv ri vnloohg zrunhuv lq frxqwu| 41
57
50
frxqwulhv1 Oryho| dqg Ulfkdugvrq +4<<;, kdyh irxqg hylghqfh ri zdjh frqyhujhqfh lq lqgxvwulhv zklfk surgxfwv duh wudghg zlwk ghyhorshg frxqwulhv1 Juhdwhu XV wudgh zlwk ghyhorshg frxqwulhv uhvxowv lq ghfuhdvlqj uhzdugv wr vnloov dqg lqfuhdvlqj uhzdugv wr udz oderu1 Wklv lv suhflvho| zkdw wklv prgho suhglfwv1 Wkh sorw dovr vkrzv kljkhu zdjh gl huhqwldov dprqj gl huhqw ohyhov ri h{shuwlvh lq wkh h{sdqglqj lqgxvwu|1 Wklv lv jlyhq e| wkh ohduqlqj h{shfwdwlrqv= wkh kljkhu wkh suredelolw| ri dftxlulqj wkh vnloov/ wkh orzhu wkh zdjh wkdw zrunhuv duh zloolqj wr dffhsw wr zrun lq wkh lqgxvwu|1 Ilqdoo|/ lw lv lpsruwdqw wr srlqw rxw wkdw jlyhq wkdw wkh shulrg xwlolw| lv FHV ehwzhhq wkh krpr0 jhqhrxv dqg wkh pdqxidfwxuhg lqgxvwulhv/ shrsoh vshqg d frqvwdqw iudfwlrq ri wkhlu lqfrph lq hdfk ri wkh lqgxvwulhv1 Wkh lqfuhdvh lq wudgh lq wklv prgho lv qrw/ wkxv/ gulyhq e| dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh vkduh ri pdqxidfwxuhg jrrgv lq frqvxpswlrq/ dv lw lv wkh fdvh lq Pdunxvhq +4<;9, dqg Ehujrhlqj dqg Nhkrh +4<<<,1 Lq wkh qh{w h{shulphqw/ L voljkwo| prgli| wkh lqlwldo frqglwlrqv ri wkh prgho wr vkrz krz wkh| fdq ohdg wr d gl huhqw sdwwhuq ri vshfldol}dwlrq1 L frqvlghu wkh fdvh lq zklfk frxqwu| 4 kdv pruh h{shuwv wkdq frxqwu| 5 lq wkh uvw vhfwru/ dqg ohvv h{shuwv lq wkh vhfrqg vhfwru1 Erwk frxqwulhv vwduw zlwk wkh vdph h{shuwv lq wkh vhfrqg dqg wklug vhfwru1 L nhhs wkh v|pphwu| dvvxpswlrq1 Wkh vshfl f ydoxhv iru wkh lqlwldo frqglwlrqv fkrvhq duh +{ > {2 > { > {e , @ +3=<> 3=:> 3=:> 3=8,a { dqg +{2 > {22 > {2 > {2e , @ +3=8> 3=:> 3=:> 3=<,a {= Iljxuh 718 sorwv wkh hyroxwlrq ri wkh glvwulexwlrq ri h{shuwv iru wkhvh lqlwldo frqglwlrqv1 Frxqwu| rqh vshfldol}hv lq wkh surgxfwlrq ri wkh jrrg lq zklfk lw kdv d uhodwlyho| kljk hqgrzphqw ri h{shuwv wr vwduw zlwk/ jrrg 4/ dqg ohwv wkh vhfwru zlwk d uhodwlyho| orz hqgrzphqw ri h{shuwv/ vhfwru 7/ ghfd|1 Vlqfh erwk frxqwulhv kdyh wkh vdph hqgrzphqwv ri jrrgv 5 dqg 6/ erwk frxqwulhv surgxfh wkrvh jrrgv dqg wkhuh lv qr h{fkdqjh ri dq| ri wkhvh jrrgv1 Wkxv/ wkh sdwwhuq ri wudgh frqyhujhv wr sduwldo vshfldol}dwlrq= erwk 58
frxqwulhv judgxdoo| vshfldol}h lq wkh surgxfwlrq ri rqh ri wkh pdqxidfwxuhg jrrgv/ uhgxfh surgxfwlrq ri dqrwkhu ri wkh jrrgv/ dqg surgxfh d srvlwlyh dprxqw ri wkh rwkhu wzr1 Lq wklv fdvh/ wkh h{sruwv0wr0lqfrph udwlr grhv qrw h{shulhqfh vxfk d elj lqfuhdvh dv lq wkh uvw h{shulphqw1 Lw lqfuhdvhv e| d idfwru ri 6 lq d 68 |hdu shulrg + jxuh 719,1 Wklv ydoxh lv forvh wr wkh lqfuhdvh lq wkh udwlr revhuyhg lq wkh gdwd144
0.30 x1 0.25
0.20
0.15 x2, x3 0.10
0.05 x4 0.00 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
period
Iljxuh 718= H{dpsoh 51 Glvwulexwlrq ri h{shuwv lq frxqwu| 41 Fkdqjhv lq wkh sdudphwhuv d hfw wkh vshhg ri frqyhujhqfh wr wkh vwhdg| vwdwh dqg wkh vwhdg| vwdwh*v sursruwlrq ri h{shuwv1 Wkh txdolwdwlyh uhvxowv ri wkh prgho dqg wkh wudqvlwlrqdo g|qdplfv ri wkh sdwwhuq ri vshfldol}dwlrq/ jlyhq lqlwldo frqglwlrqv/ duh qrw d hfwhg1 Lq zkdw iroorzv L h{sodlq wkh h hfwv ri wkh ohduqlqj sdudphwhuv dqg wkh glvfrxqw idfwru = D pruh ghwdlohg dqdo|vlv fdq eh irxqg lq Edmrqd +5335,1 44
Wkh sdwwhuq ri vshfldol}dwlrq ghshqgv fuxfldoo| rq wkh lqwhudfwlrq ehwzhhq vhfwruv1 Doorzlqj iru vslooryhuv lq nqrzohgjh dfurvv vhfwruv +ehwzhhq vhfwruv +4/5, dqg +6/7,/ iru lqvwdqfh, zrxog eudnh grzq wkh sduwldo vshfldol}dwlrq htxloleulxp lq wkh suhylrxv h{dpsoh1 Frxqwu| 4 zrxog judgxdoo| vshfldol}h lq vhfwruv +4/5, dqg frxqwu| 5 lq vhfwruv +6/7,1 Li wkhuh duh nqrzohgjh vslooryhuv/ d frxqwu|*v frpsdudwlyh dgydqwdjh lq d vshfl f vhfwru lv ghwhuplqhg qrw rqo| e| wkh frxqwu|*v hqgrzphqwv ri h{shuwv lq wkdw vhfwru/ exw dovr e| wkh frxqwu|*v uhodwlyh hqgrzphqwv ri h{shuwv lq wkh vhfwruv wkdw duh nqrzohgjh0uhodwhg wr wkdw vshfl f vhfwru1
59
0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
period
Iljxuh 719= H{dpsoh 51 Wudgh0wr0lqfrph udwlr1 Uhjduglqj wkh sdudphwhuv ri wkh ohduqlqj ixqfwlrq/ lqfuhdvhv lq gf dqg g ru ghfuhdvhv lq g2 lqfuhdvh wkh dprxqw ri h{shuwv lq vwhdg| vwdwh dqg dffhohudwh frqyhujhqfh1 Kljkhu ydoxhv ri lpso| vorzhu frqyhujhqfh dqg orzhu qxpehu ri h{shuwv lq vwhdg| vwdwh/ vlqfh lw uhgxfhv wkh uhqhzdo udwh1 Kljkhu v lpso| idvwhu frqyhujhqfh1 Wklv uhvxow lv qrw lqwxlwlyh/ vlqfh xvxdoo| kljkhu glvfrxqw idfwruv lpso| vorzhu frqyhujhqfh145 Lq wklv prgho/ wkrxjk/ dovr uhsuhvhqwv wkh rssruwxqlw| frvw ri fkdqjlqj mrev1 Wkh kljkhu wkh > wkh pruh frvwo| lw lv wr zdlw rqh pruh shulrg wr dftxluh wkh vnloov/ wkh pruh zrunhuv kdyh wr eh frpshqvdwhg wr vwd| lq wkh ghfd|lqj vhfwru dqg/ wkhuhiruh/ wkh idvwhu wkh vhfwru ghfd|v1 45
Wkh kljkhu wkh glvfrxqw idfwru/ wkh ohvv shrsoh glvfrxqw wkh ixwxuh dqg/ wkhuhiruh/ wkh vkruwhu wkh shulrgv duh1 Pruh shulrgv duh qhhghg wr frqyhujh wr wkh vwhdg| vwdwh1
5:
81 Wudgh srolf| Wkh pdlq phvvdjh ri wklv sdshu lv wkdw xqghu srvlwlyh h{whuqdo h hfwv rq ohduqlqj wkh wudgh0wr0lqfrph udwlr pd| lqfuhdvh ryhu wlph/ dv frxqwulhv vshfldol}h/ hyhq li wkhuh lv qr fkdqjh lq wudgh srolf|1 Lq wklv uhvshfw/ wklv sdshu sursrvhv d phfkdqlvp wkdw dpsol hv wkh h hfw ri dq| wdul uhgxfwlrq1 Lq wklv vhfwlrq/ L lqfrusrudwh wudgh srolf|/ lq wkh irup ri wdul v wr lpsruwv/ wr wkh yhuvlrq ri wkh prgho glvfxvvhg lq vhfwlrq 6 dqg L vwxg| wkh h hfwv ri wudgh srolf| rq wkh wudgh yroxph1 Wdul v kdyh wzr w|shv ri h hfwv lq wklv prgho= d vwdwlf h hfw dqg d g|qdplf h hfw1 Rq rqh kdqg/ wdul v uhgxfh wkh shulrg*v wudgh0wr0lqfrph gxh wr wkh surwhfwlrq wkdw wkh| r hu wr wkh vhfwruv zlwkrxw frpsdudwlyh dgydqwdjh1 Wklv lv wkh vwdwlf h hfw1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ wdul v nhhs wkh ghfolqlqj vhfwruv rshudwlqj iru orqjhu shulrgv ri wlph/ vorzlqj wkh vshfldol}dwlrq surfhvv1 L fdoo wklv h hfw wkh g|qdplf h hfw1 Qrwlfh wkdw li wdul v duh kljk hqrxjk wkh| zloo r vhw dq| srwhqwldo ehqh wv ri wudgh1 Lq wklv fdvh/ frxqwulhv zloo eh lq wkh dxwdufklf htxloleulxp dqg/ wkxv/ zloo frqyhujh wr wkh dxwdufklf vwhdg| vwdwh zlwk frpsohwh glyhuvl fdwlrq dqg qr wudgh1 Lq zkdw iroorzv/ L frqvlghu wdul udwhv wkdw duh vpdoo hqrxjk vr frxqwulhv duh lq d wudglqj htxloleulxp1 D ghwdlohg vwxg| ri wkh h hfwv ri wudgh olehudol}dwlrq zlwk surklelwlyh lqlwldo wdul udwhv rq wkh wudgh sdwwhuq dqg wkh wudgh yroxph lv wkh wrslf ri rqjrlqj ixuwkhu uhvhdufk1 Wr vlpsoli| wkh h{srvlwlrq/ L uhvwulfw wkh vwxg| wr wkh v|pphwulf yhuvlrq ri wkh wzr0jrrg prgho/ zlwk o @ o2 > zklfk L prgli| wr doorz iru sursruwlrqdo wdul v rq lpsruwv1 Ohw s r eh wkh zruog sulfh ri jrrg v dqg eh wkh xqlirup wdul udwh rq lpsruwv1 Li frxqwu| l lv dq lpsruwhu ri jrrg v> wkh sulfh ri jrrg v lq frxqwu| l> sr lv jlyhq e| sr @ +4 . ,s r = Lq wkh v|pphwulf yhuvlrq ri wkh prgho wkh zruog sulfhv ri erwk jrrgv duh htxdo1 L qrupdol}h wkh ydoxh ri wkhvh zruog sulfhv wr eh 4= Wr jhw dq lghd ri wkh pdjqlwxgh ri wkh vwdwlf h hfw/ L vwxg| wkh h hfwv wkdw wdul v kdyh rq wkh vwhdg| vwdwh htxloleulxp1 Jlyhq wkdw frxqwulhv kdyh wkh vdph whfkqrorj|/ srvlwlyh wdul v fdqqrw vxvwdlq dq 5;
htxloleulxp vwhdg| vwdwh zlwk frpsohwh glyhuvl fdwlrq146 Wkhuhiruh/ wkh rqo| vwhdg| vwdwhv ri wkh prgho zlwk srvlwlyh wdul v duh vwhdg| vwdwhv zlwk frpsohwh vshfldol}dwlrq1 Zlwk v|pphwulf wdul v dqg frpsohwh vshfldol}dwlrq/ lpsruwv/ p> lq hdfk frxqwu| duh jlyhq e|
p@
+4 . ,*E 3 |> +4 . ,*E 3 . 4
zkhuh | lv wkh wrwdo surgxfwlrq ri wkh vshfldol}hg jrrg147 Iurp wklv h{suhvvlrq zh fdq frpsxwh wkh wdul hodvwlflw| ri wkh wudgh yroxph lq vwhdg| vwdwh/ zklfk phdvxuhv wkh shufhqwdjh lqfuhdvh lq wkh wudgh yroxph gxh wr d rqh shufhqw ghfuhdvh lq wkh wdul udwh=
%@
+4 ,+4 . ,*E 3 . 4 > +4 ,+4 . ,*E 3 . +4 ,
zklfk lv juhdwhu wkdq rqh iru dq| wdul udwh1 Iru d ydoxh ri ri 3=8> dv L xvh lq wkh vlpxodwlrqv/ wklv wdul hodvwlflw| lv derxw 4=8 iru orz wdul udwhv ri wkh rughu ri 4( dqg 5(= Wkh g|qdplf h hfw ri wkh wudgh srolf| frqvlvwv ri d vorz grzq ri wkh vshfldol}dwlrq surfhvv1 Lq rughu wr vwxg| wkh srwhqwldo pdjqlwxgh ri wklv h hfw/ L frqvlghu d ehqfkpdun prgho zlwk d 5( wdul udwh dqg L frpsduh wkh hyroxwlrq ri wkh htxloleulxp wudgh0wr0lqfrph udwlr zlwk wklv wudgh srolf| wr wkh wudgh0wr0lqfrph udwlr ri wzr rwkhu vlwxdwlrqv1 Lq wkh uvw vlwxdwlrq/ odehoohg w @ 3 lq Iljxuh 814/ wkh wdul udwh lv htxdo wr 4( vlqfh wkh uvw shulrg/ dqg lq wkh vhfrqg vlwxdwlrq/ odehoohg w @ 43> wkhuh lv d shupdqhqw uhgxfwlrq ri wkh wdul udwh iurp 5( wr 4( diwhu shulrg 43/ zklfk ixoo| suhglfwhg e| djhqwv lq wkh hfrqrp|1 Iljxuh 814 suhvhqwv wkh hyroxwlrq ri wkh glvwulexwlrq ri h{shuwv dqg wkh wudgh0 wr0lqfrph udwlr lq hdfk ri wkhvh vlwxdwlrqv1 Zh revhuyh wzr wklqjv= +l, vshfldol}dwlrq dqg wudgh vorz 46
Lqwxlwlyho|/ zlwk srvlwlyh wdul v/ jlyhq wkh dvvxpswlrq ri lghqwlfdo whfkqrorjlhv dqg glyhuvl hg vwhdg| vwdwh/ frxqwulhv duh dozd|v ehwwhu r qrw wudglqj1 Fxôdw dqg Pd h}}rol +5335, rewdlq d vlplodu uhvxow lq d gl huhqw yhuvlrq ri d Khfnvfkhu0 Rkolq prgho1 47 Qrwlfh wkdw wkh ixqfwlrq 6 lv htxlydohqw wr wkh frqvxpswlrq ri wkh lpsruwhg jrrg1
5<
grzq ryhu wlph +wkh g|qdplf h hfw,/ dqg/ jlyhq wkh vdph ghjuhh ri vshfldol}dwlrq/ wkhuh lv ohvv wudgh zkhq wdul v duh kljk +wkh vwdwlf h hfw,1 +ll, Nqrzohgjh ri ixwxuh wudgh olehudol}dwlrq vshhgv xs wudgh= Qrwlfh wkdw wkh h hfw ri wdul uhgxfwlrq lq wkh wudgh yroxph ghshqgv rq wkh ghjuhh ri vshfldol}dwlrq dfklhyhg e| wkh frxqwulhv1 Frpsdulqj wkh vlwxdwlrq zlwk shupdqhqw 5( wdul udwhv zlwk wkh vlwxdwlrq zlwk shupdqhqw 4( wdul udwhv/ wkh wudgh0wr0lqfrph udwlr zlwk d 4( wdul udwh lv 55( kljkhu lq wkh uvw shulrg/ lqfuhdvhv wr d 63( gl huhqfh lq wkh irxuwk shulrg dqg lw judgxdoo| ghfuhdvhv wr derxw 418( lq vwhdg| vwdwh1 Wkhuhiruh/ d suhglfwlrq ri wklv prgho lv wkdw wkh srwhqwldo jdlqv ri wudgh olehudol}dwlrq duh kljkhu zkhq frxqwulhv kdyh vlplodu surgxfwlrq sdwwhuqv dqg duh orzhu zkhq frxqwulhv duh douhdg| txlwh vshfldol}hg lq wkhlu surgxfwlrq sdwwhuqv1
91 Frqfoxvlrq Lq wklv sdshu L ghyhors d jhqhudo htxloleulxp prgho ri wudgh ehwzhhq ghyhorshg frxqwulhv wkdw fdq dffrxqw iru wkh lqfuhdvh lq wkh wudgh0wr0lqfrph udwlr revhuyhg lq wkh srvwzdu shulrg1 Wkh fuxfldo k|srwkhvhv ri wkh prgho duh wkdw +l, yhu| vshfldol}hg zrunhuv +lqgxvwu|0vshfl f h{shuwv, duh xvhg lq wkh surgxfwlrq ri wkh jrrgv wkdw wkhvh frxqwulhv wudgh/ wkdw +ll, wkh vshfldol}hg vnloov fdq eh ohduqhg e| qrqvshfldol}hg oderu wkurxjk wkhlu gd|0e|0gd| frqwdfw zlwk wkh h{shuwv/ dqg wkdw +lll, wkhuh duh srvlwlyh h hfwv lq wkh ohduqlqj ghylfh gulyhq e| wkh sursruwlrq ri h{shuwv lq wkh frxqwu|1 L qg wkdw hyhq vpdoo srvlwlyh h hfwv lq wkh ohduqlqj jhqhudwh d sdwwhuq ri judgxdo vshfldol}dwlrq ryhu wlph dqg/ wkhuhiruh/ dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh wudgh0wr0lqfrph udwlr1 Rqh lpsolfdwlrq ri wklv prgho lv wkdw lqgxvwuldo srolf| +wd{hv ri vxevlglhv wr vshfl f vhfwruv, dqg wudgh srolf| +wdul v, d hfw wkh g|qdplf hyroxwlrq ri frpsdudwlyh dgydqwdjhv dfurvv frxqwulhv dqg/ wkhuhiruh/ wkh sdwwhuq ri wudgh dqg jurzwk48 1 D uhvxow ri wkh prgho lv wkdw wkh wlplqj ri olehudol}d0 48
L wkdqn dq dqrq|prxv uhihuhh iru srlqwlqj rxw wklv ihdwxuh ri wkh prgho1 Vhh Ed{whu +4<<5,1
63
Distribution of experts
0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35
t=0
t=10
t=40
0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 t=10
t=40
t=0
0.05 0.00 1
5
9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
t
Exports-to-income ratio
0.60
0.50
0.40
t=0
t=10
t=40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00 1
5
9
13
17
21
25
29
Iljxuh 814= Wdul uhgxfwlrq
64
33
37
wlrq ri wudgh eduulhuv dv zhoo dv gl huhqw ghjuhhv ri olehudol}dwlrq dfurvv vhfwruv pd| eh lpsruwdqw lq ghwhuplqlqj ixwxuh frpsdudwlyh dgydqwdjhv1 Wklv lv dq lqwhuhvwlqj gluhfwlrq iru ixuwkhu uhvhdufk wkdw wkh dxwkru lv douhdg| vwxg|lqj1 D zrug ri fdxwlrq uhodwhg wr wkh srolf| lpsolfdwlrqv ri wkh prgho lv/ wkrxjk/ lq sodfh1 Rqh pd| eh whpswhg wr xvh wklv prgho wr vxssruw lqidqw lqgxvwu| w|sh ri dujxphqwv iru hfrqrplf srolf|= lqlwldo vxevlglhv wr vshfl f vhfwruv zrxog vshhg xs wkh dffxpxodwlrq ri h{shuwlvh dqg/ wkhuhiruh/ gulyh wkh frxqwu| wr vshfldol}h lq wkh vxevlgl}hg vhfwruv1 Vxevlglhv wr vhfwruv wkdw duh olnho| wr kdyh kljk vslooryhuv wr rwkhu vhfwruv pljkw dovr vshhg wkh lqgxvwuldol}dwlrq surfhvv1 L vhh wzr remhfwlrqv wr wklv sudfwlfh1 Iluvw/ lw lv kdug wr nqrz wkh h{whqw ri wkh vslooryhuv dqg zklfk vhfwruv duh ehwwhu dw glvvhplqdwlqj nqrzohgjh wr rwkhu vhfwruv1 Vhfrqg/ d vxevlg| wr rqh vhfwru lv dozd|v dw wkh h{shqvh ri dqrwkhu vhfwru/ lq zklfk wkh frxqwu| pljkw kdyh dgydqwdjh lq wkh uvw sodfh/ srvvleo| pdnlqj wkh frvwv ri wkh srolf| kljkhu wkdq wkh ehqh wv1 Wkhuh duh vrph olplwdwlrqv ri wklv prgho wkdw vxjjhvw gl huhqw gluhfwlrqv iru ixwxuh uhvhdufk1 Iluvw/ wkh prgho grhv qrw wdnh lqwr dffrxqw wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri qhz whfkqrorjlhv ru lpsuryhphqwv ri whfkqro0 rj| ryhu wlph1 D yhuvlrq ri wkh prgho zkhuh wkh dffxpxodwlrq ri h{shuwlvh ohg wr wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri ehwwhu whfkqrorjlhv/ zrxog eh deoh wr dffrxqw iru gl huhqfhv lq whfkqrorjlhv dw wkh vhfwrudo ohyho irxqg e| vrph vwxglhv1 Pruh lpsruwdqwo|/ wkh prgho grhv qrw frqvlghu wkh srvvlelolw| ri wkh fuhdwlrq ri qhz jrrgv1 Lw lv d idfw wkdw ghyhorshg frxqwulhv wudgh lq jrrgv wkdw duh yhu| vlplodu wr hdfk rwkhu/ dqg wkdw wkh dprxqw ri wkhvh vlplodu jrrgv/ ydulhwlhv/ lqfuhdvhv ryhu wlph1 Wkh prgho lq wklv sdshu fdq eh frqvlghuhg dv dq h{dpsoh ri wkh h{wuhph fdvh lq zklfk wkh ydulhwlhv duh shuihfw vxevwlwxwhv1 Lq wklv fdvh/ p| prgho frxog eh lqwhusuhwhg dv hdfk h{shuw vhwwlqj xs d qhz up surgxflqj d gl huhqw ydulhw| ri d jrrg lq wkh vdph lqgxvwu|1
65
Uhihuhqfhv ^4` Dwnhvrq/ D1 dqg S1 M1 Nhkrh/ Sdwkv ri Ghyhorsphqw iru Hduo|0 dqg Odwh0 Eorrphuv lq d G|qdplf Khfnvfkhu0Rkolq Prgho/ Ihghudo Uhvhuyh Edqn ri Plqqhdsrolv Vwd Uhsruw & 589/ 53331 ^5` Edlhu/ V1 O1 dqg M1 K1 Ehujvwudqg/ Wkh Jurzwk dqg Uhjlrqdol}dwlrq ri Lqwhqdwlrqdo Wudgh/ plphr/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Qrwuh Gdph/ 4<<;1 ^6` Edmrqd/ F/ Vshfl f Idfwruv/ Ohduqlqj/ dqg wkh G|qdplfv ri Wudgh/ zrunlqj sdshu/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Pldpl/ 53351 ^7` Edmrqd/ F1 dqg W1 M1 Nhkrh/ Rq G|qdplf Khfnvfkhu0Rkolq Prghov/ plphr/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Pldpl/ 53351 ^8` Ehujrhlqj/ U1/ Vwxglhv rq Wudgh/ Sk1 G1 Glvvhudwlrq/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Plqqhvrwd/ 4<<91 ^9` Ehujrhlqj/ U1 dqg W1 M1 Nhkrh Wudgh Wkhru| dqg Wudgh Idfwv/ Ihghudo Uhvhuyh Edqn ri Plq0 qhdsrolv Vwd Uhsruw & 5;7/ 53341 ^:` Erogulq/ P1 dqg M1 D1 Vfkhlqnpdq/ Ohduqlqj0E|0Grlqj/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Wudgh dqg Jurzwk= D Qrwh/ lq S1 Z1 Dqghuvrq/ N1 M1 Duurz/ dqg G1 Slqhv/ hgv1/ Wkh hfrqrp| dv dq hyroylqj frpsoh{ v|vwhp= Wkh surfhhglqjv ri wkh Hyroxwlrqdu| Sdwkv ri wkh Joredo Hfrqrp|/ Vdqwd Ih Lqvwlwxwh Vwxglhv lq wkh Vflhqfhv ri Frpsoh{lw| 8 +Orqgrq= Dgglvrq0Zhvoh|/ 4<;;,1 ^;` Fklspdq/ M1 V1 Lqwud0Lqgxvwu| wudgh lq d Orjolqhdu Prgho/1 plphr/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Plqqhvrwd/ 4<<51 ^<` Fxôdw D1 dqg P1 Pd h}}rol1 Wudgh Lqwhjudwlrq dqg Jurzwk1 pdqxvfulsw/ 53351
66
^43` Ghyhuhx{/ P1 E1/ Jurzwk/ Vshfldol}dwlrq dqg Wudgh Olehudol}dwlrq/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplf Uh0 ylhz 6; +4<<:,/ 89808;81 ^44` Ihhqvwud/ U1/ Lqwhjudwlrq ri Wudgh dqg Glvlqwhjudwlrq ri Surgxfwlrq lq wkh Joredo Hfrqrp|/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Shuvshfwlyhv 45 +4<<;,/ 640831 ^45` Ihhqh|/ M1/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Ulvn Vkdulqj/ Ohduqlqj e| Grlqj/ dqg Jurzwk/ Mrxuqdo ri Ghyhorsphqw Hfrqrplfv 8; +4<<<,/ 5<:064;1 ^46` Jhqhudo Djuhhphqw rq Wdul v dqg Wudgh/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Wudgh/ Ydulrxv lvvxhv1 ^47` Khospdq H1 dqg S1 Nuxjpdq/ Pdunhw Vwuxfwxuh dqg Iruhljq Wudgh +Fdpeulgjh= PLW Suhvv/ 4<;8, ^48` Kruqvwhlq/ D1 dqg H1 F1 Suhvfrww/ Wkh Ilup dqg wkh Sodqw lq Jhqhudo Htxloleulxp Wkhru|/ lq U1 Ehfnhu hw0do1/ hgv1/ Jhqhudo htxloleulxp/ jurzwk/ dqg wudgh1 Yroxph 51 Wkh ohjdf| ri Olrqho PfNhq}lh1 Hfrqrplf Wkhru|/ Hfrqrphwulfv/ dqg Pdwkhpdwlfdo Hfrqrplfv vhulhv1 +Vdq Glhjr> Orqgrq= Kdufrxuw Eudfh/ Dfdghplf Suhvv/ 4<<6,1 ^49` Lvkll/ M1 dqg N0P1/ \l/ Wkh Jurzwk ri Zruog Wudgh/pdqxvfulsw/ Ihghudo Uhvhuyh Edqn ri Qhz \run/ 4<<:1 ^4:` Nuxjpdq/ s1/ Jurzlqj Zruog Wudgh= Fdxvhv dqg Frqvhtxhqfhv/ Eurrnlqjv Sdshuv rq Hfrqrplf Dfwlylw| 4 +4<<8,/ 65806::1 ^4;` Oryho|/ P1 dqg G1 Ulfkdugvrq/ Wudgh Iorzv dqg Zdjh Suhplxpv= Grhv Zkr ru Zkdw PdwwhuB/ Zrunlqj Sdshu Qr1 999;/ Qdwlrqdo Exuhdx ri Hfrqrplf Uhvhdufk/ 4<<;1 ^4<` Oxfdv/U1 H1/ Rq wkh Phfkdqlfv ri Hfrqrplfv Ghyhorsphqw/ Mrxuqdo ri Prqhwdu| Hfrqrplfv 55 +4<;;, 60751
67
^53` Oxfdv/ U1 H1/ H{whuqdolwlhv dqg Flwlhv/ plphr/1 Xqlyhuvlw| ri Fklfdjr/ 4<<;1 ^54` Pdunxvhq M1 U1/ H{sodlqlqj wkh Yroxph ri Wudgh= Dq Hfohfwlf Dssurdfk/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz :9 +4<;9,/ 4335043441 ^55` Sdun/ N1 V1/ D wkhru| ri rq0wkh0mre ohduqlqj/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplf Uhylhz 6; +4<<:,/ 940;41 ^56` Ukhh/ \1 Z1/ Wkh Fdwdo|vw Prgho ri Ghyhorsphqw= Ohvvrqv iurp Edqjodghvk*v Vxffhvv zlwk Jduphqw H{sruwv/ Zruog Ghyhorsphqw 4; +4<<3,/ 66606791 ^57` Urgjhuv/ M1 U1/ Dqdo|vlv ri Lqwud0Lqgxvwu| Wudgh Iorzv= Wkh Fdvh ri Vzhghq/ Sk1 G1 Glvvhuwd0 wlrq/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Plqqhvrwd/ 4<;:1 ^58` Urvh/ D1 N1/ Zk| kdv Wudgh Jurzq Idvwhu wkdq LqfrphB/ Fdqdgldq Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 57 +4<<4,/ 74:075:1 ^59` Yhqwxud M1/ Jurzwk dqg Lqwhughshqghqfh/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 445 +4<<:,/ 8:0;71 ^5:` \l/ N10P1 Fdq Yhuwlfdo Vshfldol}dwlrq H{sodlq wkh Jurzwk ri Zruog WudghB/ iruwkfrplqj/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp|/ 53351 ^5;` \rxqj/ D1/ Ohduqlqj e| Grlqj dqg wkh G|qdplf H hfwv ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Wudgh/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 439 +4<<4,/ 69<07381
68
