2.0403 (2445)
Secondary Payloads in 2014: Assessing the Numbers Michael Swartwout
Parks College of Engineering, Aviation & Technology Saint Louis University
2014 IEEE Aerospace Conference Big Sky, MT 3 March 2014
What are Secondaries? • Launches are expensive (and underweight)! • Secondaries use excess capacity to fly smaller
(riskier?) missions on space-available basis • Milestones – 1960: – 1961: – 1980: – 2003:
SOLRAD-1 (20 kg, USN) w/Transit-2A (100 kg USN) Injun-1 (16 kg, U. Iowa) w/Transit-4A & SOLRAD-3 Phase-3A (AMSAT) on Ariane-1 QuakeSat, AAU CubeSat, CanX-1, XI-IV, CUTE-1, DTUSat on Rokot – 2013: 29 Spacecraft on ORS-3 (11/19) 33 Spacecraft on Dnepr (11/21) – 2014: 33 Deployed by ISS over 17 days • 899 of 7417 spacecraft flown were secondaries Secondary Spacecraft 2014
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Why am I talking about this, again?
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How to Create These Lovely Plots • Start with 7203 spacecraft (1960-2013) • It takes (at least) two to ride-share • Eliminate the remainder that don’t fit – GEO flights* – Mass > 500 kg – Co-manifested “large” missions – Swarms of identical spacecraft (Iridium, Orbcomm, Glonass, Globalstar, Strela, etc) – 700 Russian ISR birds alone! • Try not to pull your hair out when 75
spacecraft deploy in the span of 3 days
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Spacecraft Per Launch: 2000-2014
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Rideshare Mass (2000-2014)
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CubeSat vs. Non-CubeSat (2000-2013)
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Is the CubeSat Optimal? • Standardization has outpaced optimization • Options – CubeSat: $100-250k, 1-2 years lead time – Non-CubeSat: >> $250k, 2-4+ years lead time • Larger dispensers are coming online
– 6U (2014) – 12U / 24U ? • Is the cart (Cube) before the horse (Mission)?
(I fear that it is)
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Who Flies (1): Launch Vehicle Nation
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Who Flies (2): Mission Developer Nation
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Who Flies (3): Mission Developer Type
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Who Flies (4): Mission Type
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Are These Spacecraft Working?
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Not all Secondaries are Equal
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Rideshare Recommendations (US Version) • If you can fit it in a CubeSat, put it in a CubeSat! – Cost, development time, launch time are very favorable – We have a (near-term?) overcapacity in launches – Reduce mission scope (or consider a mission that spans multiple launches!) • Cross your fingers for lots of ESPAs
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Your Mileage May Vary Outside the U.S., CubeSats are not necessarily the best option (if you can afford the launch...) • PSLV-CA 9 (India, launched 2013-02) – Custom sizes: 346 kg, 150 kg, 65 kg, 10 kg (x2) – CubeSat-class: 3U, 1U • Dnepr-1 (Russia, launched 2013-12)
– Custom sizes: 300 kg, 150 kg, 28 kg, 12 kg (x2), 10 kg (x2) – CubeSat-class: 3U (x6), 2U, 1U • Nanoracks/J-SSOD makes CubeSat access
possible, internationally
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[cue ominous music] • Are we ready for this?
– IARU/FCC coordination – Tracking/deconfliction – Keeping up with supply (!) • What happens if (when)
something goes wrong? – Launch failure – Mission failures (25-40%) – Interference
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Future Work • Keep up with database • Study technology infusion trends (power, data rate) • Watch that U.S./international split in spacecraft types • Keep a close eye on the results of this year • Anyone want to help manage a database?
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Acknowledgements • Data sources – ASCEND SpaceTrak Database – Space Track Database – Astronautix – Gunter’s Space Page – Union of Concerned Scientists’ Satellite Database – Bryan Klofas – Mike Rupprecht, DK3WN • Research support
– AFOSR University Nanosat Program – Saint Louis University (Marie Kendrick) Secondary Spacecraft 2014
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2.0403 (2445)
Secondary Payloads in 2014: Assessing the Numbers Michael Swartwout
Parks College of Engineering, Aviation & Technology Saint Louis University
2014 IEEE Aerospace Conference Big Sky, MT 3 March 2014
