Global Asset Allocation 09 May 2014

The J.P. Morgan View Do risk markets need a stronger or weaker economy?  Asset allocation –– Risk assets benefit most from stable growth and easy money. Weaker growth this past year boosted risk assets, as it extended the reign of easy money. Near term, now, we would prefer upside, to reduce the uncertainty created by a dismal Q1. Beyond Q2, we prefer stable over very high and very low growth. Very high would bring an early end to easy money, and raise uncertainty.  Economics –– No change.  Fixed Income –– ECB surprises and hints at action in June. This should be bullish for the periphery and spreads between Germany and US/UK.  Equities –– A more activist ECB and improving economic growth raise upside risks for Euro area equities versus other markets.  Credit –– We expect an increase in leveraging transaction activity going forward, likely more from M&A than LBOs.  FX –– Gentle uptick of US dollar remains our view.  Commodities –– 70% chance of El Niño keeps us long sugar and wheat.  Click here for video.  With little economic news, aside from two central bankers (Yellen and Draghi) sending dovish messages, markets are largely unchanged. EM is outperforming across assets, on less threatening news from the Ukraine.  The world economy has significantly disappointed this year, with Q1 estimates now a full percentage point below the 3% we expected on Jan 1. We have argued here frequently that surprises tend to build and that surprises tend to be followed by more of the same. This would suggest further downside. In this case, we and the market are seeing enough signs to suggest much of the Q1 surprise is due to temporary factors, such as bad weather. At the same time, there are a number of unexplained developments, such as the precipitous decline in Q1 US capex, to give cause for doubt. Hence, we, and apparently the market, have split the difference in half, neither projecting further weakness, nor expecting a strong payback in coming quarters for what we lost in Q1.  Risk assets do not appear to be that bothered by this weaker growth, with equities still net up YTD and credit spreads tighter. The same happened last year. The chart on p. 2 shows how our and consensus 2014 growth forecasts have been falling trend-like since early last year, and still global equities gained 15% in 2013. Have we come to the point that risk markets are simply driven by easy money and thus asset inflation and does that mean that the main threat to global credit and equities would be upside surprises on economic activity? Has the traditional logic of strong growth being good for risk assets been turned on its head? As with most simplistic questions, we believe the answer is probably yes, and no.  Our mental model of gauging the direction of risk markets is to judge them on the basis of expected changes in the return to risk taken versus the amount of risk that is out there: i.e., the price and quantity of risk.

Global Asset Allocation Jan Loeys

AC

(1-212) 834-5874 [email protected] JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

John Normand (44-20) 7134-1816 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou (44-20) 7134-7815 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Mika Inkinen (44-20) 7742 6565 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Matthew Lehmann (1-212) 834-8315 [email protected] J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

YTD returns through May 8 %, equities are in lighter color. Gold EMBIG US High Grade MSCI Europe* EM $ Corp. US High Yield Europe Fixed Inc* GSCI TR US Fixed Income Global Gov Bonds** S&P500 EM Local Bonds** MSCI AC World* MSCI EM* US cash EM FX Topix* -15 -10 -5

0

5 10

Source: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg. Note: Returns in USD. *Local currency. **Hedged into USD. Euro Fixed Income is iBoxx Overall Index. US HG, HY, EMBIG and EM $ Corp are JPM indices. EM FX is EMCI in $.

See page 7 for analyst certification and important disclosures. www.jpmorganmarkets.com

Jan Loeys (1-212) 834-5874 [email protected]

Global Asset Allocation The J.P. Morgan View 09 May 2014

 What does this mean? Weaker economic growth induces central banks to provide stimulus, which lowers the yield on safe assets, and thus makes risk assets relatively better priced. That is the easy part. The harder question, in our view, is whether weaker growth can happen without an increase in uncertainty. We believe it can, as long as the downgrade is gentle, as has been the case for most of the past two years. Lower growth that significantly raises the risk of recession should on net still be a negative for risk assets.  On the other side, stronger growth that brings rate hikes forward can become a net negative for risk assets if this increases uncertainty. This will typically be near the more mature part of the expansion, which is why equities, and even more so credit, turn before the end of an economic expansion. In the middle of an economic expansion, a growth surge will itself typically follow from a rise in consumer and corporate confidence (the reverse of uncertainty) and will then allow stronger risk markets.  What does this mean for today? It is the judgment of this analyst that for the next quarter at least, a modest upgrade vs. expectations would be best, largely to eliminate the uncertainty produced by the disappointment on Q1. Another 1% Q/Q downgrade would produce serious uncertainty about the US and global outlook, as it would destroys the hopes that Q1 was simply a one-off. But beyond Q2, significant further upside surprises could raise fears of earlier and faster Fed rate hikes and thus raise questions whether world financial markets, and in particular EM, could handle the end of 6 years of zero interest rates. Overall, no growth surprises either way would be best: Not too hot, not too cold. We stay OW risk assets, but monitor macro volatility most intensely.

Fixed Income  G4 bond yields at 10yr horizons are little changed this week, with US and UK yields 3bp and 4bp higher respectively and German and Japanese yields largely flat. The shorter end outperformed, as Fed Chair Yellen struck a dovish tone in testimony to Congress, noting there remains ample labor market slack.  Our US strategists have lowered their year-end forecasts for 10yr UST by 20bp to 3.20% (What’s weighing on long-term rates, Alex Roever et al., May 9), while leaving shorter-end forecasts unchanged. We retain a bearish bias on US Treasuries as we expect the gradual improvement in growth to focus market attention on future policy normalization.  ECB President Draghi surprised by turning explicitly dovish yesterday. He noted that euro strength was a "serious concern", that ECB governors were dissatisfied with the projected path for inflation, and that the Governing Council was comfortable with acting in the next meeting in June. This could point to a downward revision in the ECB staff projection for inflation, which remains significantly above inflation swaps (bottom chart).

2014 Global GDP growth forecast: JPM vs. Consensus %.

3.4

Consensus

3.2 JPM 3.0

2.8

Potential

2.6 Jan-13 Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14

Source: J.P. Morgan, Blue Chip, Consensus Economics

ECB inflation forecast vs. inflation swaps %. Solid line is historical headline Euro area HICP inflation, dark diamonds are annual inflation forecasts for 2014, 2015 and 2016 from the ECB's March staff forecast, and light diamonds are fixed-date HICP swaps for 2014, 2015 and 2016 from our inflation swap curve

3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 ECB Staff forecast

1.5 1.0

Inflation swaps

0.5 0.0 12

13

14

15

16

Source: Eurostat, ECB and J.P. Morgan

 We now see a 60-70% chance of a 10bp, cut in the refi and deposit rates in More details in ... June (to 0.15% and -0.10% respectively), a higher chance of credit easing Global Data Watch, Bruce Kasman, David Hensley and (from 30% to 40%) and private sector QE (from 20% to 30%). Sovereign QE Joe Lupton remains very unlikely. A more dovish ECB supports our medium-term OW of Global Markets Outlook and Strategy, Jan Loeys et al. Euro duration vs. US and UK duration, and long periphery vs. German bonds. US Fixed Income Markets, Matt Jozoff, and Jay Barry

Equities  A more activist ECB in an environment of improving economic growth, as suggested by recent PMI data, is supportive for Euro area growth and thus equities. Although, for investors who wish to put on a long in Euro area equities we recommend hedging the currency risk to protect against a decline in the euro. 2

Global Fixed Income Markets, Fabio Bassi et al. Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy, Luis Oganes and Holly Huffman Key trades and risk: Emerging Market Equity Strategy, Adrian Mowat et al. European Equity Strategy, Mislav Matejka., et al. Flows & Liquidity, Nikos Panigirtzoglou et al.

Jan Loeys (1-212) 834-5874 [email protected]

Global Asset Allocation The J.P. Morgan View 09 May 2014

 In GMOS on Wednesday, we closed OW in Small vs. Large Caps in Europe. Although our strategists maintain a positive view on SMid caps over the long term, i.e. over the next 1-2 years, they have less conviction for this year (see SMid Trilogy, Eduardo Lecubarri, May 2). Valuations of small caps (P/Book) appear stretched and no longer cheap. Following the outperformance at the beginning of the year, price momentum has turned negative. We will reevaluate this trade if these stocks return to more favorable valuations or momentum returns.  Also in GMOS, we opened a long Sweden vs. Japan based on the PMI signal from our systematic country model. For the month of May, the model favors Sweden vs. Japan (PMI signal), Russia vs. Brazil (FX signal) and Russia vs. South Africa (P/CF signal). We like the relative growth dynamics in Sweden in contrast to Japan but are reluctant to buy Russian equities according to the FX or the P/CF signals. Swedish equities should be helped by a stable growth environment and supportive central bank policy. In contrast, we believe the lack of action by the BoJ and lack of buying by non-domestic investors represent a challenge for Japanese equities near term

Credit  Credit spreads are broadly tighter across markets this week, with only US HY and HG very slightly wider. EM credit, both sovereign and corporate, performed the best, on positive news from Russia/Ukraine in terms of moving towards a diplomatic solution. EMBIG Europe was 17bp tighter, while Latam and Asia were 3bp and 8bp tighter respectively. In GMOS on Wednesday, we retained our portfolio’s focus on HY given spreads are still some way from pre-crisis lows with default rates still very low. In US HG we stay away from directional trades given spreads are now so close to pre-crisis average levels but we keep longs in financials vs. non-financials and in long end yields.  M&A activity has picked up sharply this year. We expect an increase in leveraging transaction activity going forward. However, we believe it is more likely through companies returning cash to shareholders and M&A than via LBOs. Conditions for leveraging transactions remain favorable, with significant market capacity to provide financing for companies, low refinancing needs, continued growth in cash on corporate balance sheets and easing of global risk factors. However, we note that the rise in stock market valuations, lackluster EBITDA growth and stricter leveraged lending guidelines from US Bank regulators are making LBOs more challenging. Our HG credit strategists published a report analyzing this yesterday, including a list of companies that may have capacity to add meaningful leverage as well as a list of companies for which the market appears to be pricing some likelihood of a significant leveraging event (see LBO Update: Leveraging more likely through M&A and cash back to shareholders than LBOs, Eric Beinstein et al., May 8)

Foreign Exchange  We published Key Currency Views today and revised Q2 FX forecasts for a few currencies to reflect the Treasury market's inability to sell off as US activity data improve. Most Q4 targets are unchanged, however. Mid-year targets, with previous forecasts in parentheses, include: AUD/USD 0.92 (0.90), USD/CAD 1.10 (1.12), USD/INR 59 (62), USD/KRW 1025 (1040), USD/TRY 2.10 (2.20) and USD/ZAR 10.50 (11.25). Unchanged forecasts for Q2 include: EUR/USD 1.36, USD/JPY 100, NZD/USD 0.85, USD/MXN 12.90, USD/BRL 2.30 and USD/CNY 6.24.

More details in ... US Credit Markets Outlook and Strategy, Eric Beinstein et al. EM Corporate Weekly Monitor, Yang-Myung Hong et al. High Yield Credit Markets Weekly, Peter Acciavatti et al. European Credit Outlook & Strategy, Steven Dulake et al. Emerging Markets Cross Product Strategy Weekly, Eric Beinstein et al.

3

Global Asset Allocation The J.P. Morgan View 09 May 2014

 Our target for the USD index by year-end has always been tame – only 3% higher trade-weighted – though predicated on higher US rates across the curve. That view reflected three considerations: (1) historically the tradeweighted dollar has moved erratically within a range in the two years leading up to Fed tightening given the offsets from a dollar which offers low yields before the hikes but promises high yields after; (2) US rates, depressed in Q1 2014 by freakish weather and a GDP contraction, would rebound across the curve as activity data revived this spring; and (3) idiosyncratic issues were severe enough to undermine the currencies of several non-US economies as US rates rose. These vulnerabilities included low inflation in the Euro area, Canada and Sweden; more QQE in Japan; and business cycle and/or macro imbalances in Australia, South Africa, Russia, Brazil, Chile and Malaysia.  The US is delivering the anticipated upturn in growth, but perversely with stability in the 2yr and a rally in the 10yr, partly due to the absence of wage pressures. A year after taper talk began boosting the dollar last spring, the trade-weighted index is declining towards the May 2013 level as incoming price data validate the Fed’s long-standing message that tapering isn’t tightening and that US inflation risks are minor. If investors’ apparent acceptance of the Fed view persists for another year, the dollar would have little hope of recovering, in our view. In particular, the currency would fall further versus high-yield currencies and currencies of regions with current account surpluses. This is because there is little reason to hold a zero interest rate pair unless the country’s growth momentum is sufficient to move rate expectations up consistently each quarter. Why then still forecast any gains for the USD index into year-end? Because we doubt this eerie comfort around the US wage/inflation outlook and therefore the low US yield/low FX volatility environment will endure in the second half of 2014.

JP Morgan FX forecasts: Total currency return vs. USD %, positive indicates JPM expects the currency to appreciate vs. USD by June 2014 or March 2015 (both vs. fwds) 10% 8%

Jun-14

6%

Mar-15

4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10%

EUR CZK CHF CAD JPY BRL SEK PLN AUD GBP HUF NZD NOK INR RUB KRW CNY ZAR TRY MXN

Jan Loeys (1-212) 834-5874 [email protected]

Source: Bloomberg

US crude oil imports and production 000 bbls per day.

12000 11000

Commodities

9000

 Commodities are slightly up this week, with agriculture outperforming once again. Weather risks continue to rise and our meteorologists now assign a 70% chance that we will see a weak to moderate El Niño this summer. An El Niño is likely to be bad for crops in Asia and South America and may result in a weaker Indian monsoon, which should have a negative impact on the Indian sugar and cotton crops. It also could hit Brazilian and Thai sugar production later on, and would thus boost sugar prices. Additionally, risks from the drought in the US South West and Great Plains coupled with unusually warm and dry weather in Europe are threatening the wheat crop. We stay long sugar Mar-15 sugar and Jul-14 wheat.

8000

 Strong US oil production has significantly reduced US oil imports over the past few years (Chart). US crude imports of similar quality crude come primarily from Africa. The loss has been especially acute for Nigeria: the US bought 47% of Nigerian production in 2010 but only 12% in 2013. As this demand is reduced, Atlantic light crude markets have had to adjust by redirecting crude to new markets. Some of this has gone east to Asia but the disruption to Libyan production and the Iranian sanctions have led European refiners to import a lot more African crude than we had expected. We think this is unlikely to continue once Libya comes back on line. African crude will thus likely need to clear into Asian markets and Brent prices should come under pressure over the remainder of the year. We stay short energy (Oil Markets Weekly, Colin Fenton et al., Apr 25).

4

US crude oil imports

10000

7000

US crude oil production

6000 5000 4000 Jan-90 Feb-94 Mar-98 Apr-02 May-06 Jun-10 Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan

More details in ... FX Markets Weekly, John Normand et al. Commodity Markets Outlook & Strategy, Colin Fenton et al. Oil Markets Monthly, Colin Fenton et al. Natural Gas Weekly, Scott Speaker and Shikha Chaturvedi Metals Monthly, Natasha Kaneva et al. Agriculture Weekly, Conor O'Malley

Global Asset Allocation The J.P. Morgan View 09 May 2014

Jan Loeys (1-212) 834-5874 [email protected]

Forecasts & Strategy Interest rates United States

Fed funds rate 10-year yields Euro area Refi rate 10-year yields United Kingdom Repo rate 10-year yields Japan Overnight call rate 10-year yields Emerging markets GBI-EM - Yield

Current

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

0.125 2.61 0.25 1.45 0.50 2.68 0.05 0.61 6.68

0.125 2.75 0.25 1.55 0.50 2.85 0.05 0.60

0.125 3.00 0.25 1.65 0.50 3.10 0.05 0.70

0.125 3.20 0.25 1.80 0.50 3.30 0.05 0.80 7.50

0.125 3.30 0.25 1.85 0.75 3.45 0.05 0.85

Credit Markets US high grade (bp over UST) Euro high grade (asset swap sprd) USD high yield (bp vs. UST) Euro high yield (bp over Bunds) EMBIG (bp vs. UST) EM Corporates (bp vs. UST)

126 89 412 325 298 331

Commodities Brent ($/bbl) Gold ($/oz) Copper ($/metric ton) YTD Equity Sector Performance* Energy Materials Industrials Discretionary Staples Healthcare Financials Information Tech. Telecommunications Utilities Overall *Levels/returns as of May 08, 2014 Source: J.P. Morgan

1.38 102 1.68 0.93 2.22 6.16 1025 2.08

1.36 100 1.69 0.92 2.30 6.24 1025 2.10

Current

14Q2

108 1289 6772

102 1250 7100

US 6.6% 3.5% 0.6% -4.7% 2.5% 4.3% -0.7% 1.6% 2.4% 13.4% 1.4%

OW OW OW OW UW OW OW OW N UW

Europe 7.7% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 1.8% 7.1% 2.1% -5.9% 1.5% 10.0% 3.3%

1.34 102 1.69 0.90 2.35 6.15 1020 2.15

1.30 106 1.66 0.89 2.40 6.05 1010 2.15

Quarterly Averages 14Q3 14Q4 105 1260 6750 UW UW N OW UW OW OW N UW OW

Japan 4.5% -13.6% -7.3% -13.8% -1.4% -5.1% -18.6% -6.0% -11.5% -11.0% -10.7%

Easy money thus to stay in place Central banks care a lot more about the real economy than financial instability.

Search for yield is maturing Spreads are near or below targets, but easy money, low yields and low vol likely to push spreads lower. Value suggests concentrating risk capital in equities. 1.30 107 1.66 0.90 2.55 6.02 1010 2.15

15Q1

105 1285 6950 UW UW OW OW OW UW OW UW OW UW

Business Cycle = Risk Cycle The business cycle is best understood as a cycle in risk premia. Recessions rarely happen when risk premia vs. cash are high as today. Weak growth lags the boom in asset prices Easy money is having a greater impact on asset prices than the real economy.

Easy money continues to fuel asset reflation Asset markets to become very expensive before easy money tap is shut.

120 100 425 365 300 325

Foreign Exchange EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD AUD/USD USD/BRL USD/CNY USD/KRW USD/TRY

Investment themes and impacts

Move from EM/DM to country selection OW individual countries, without strong EM
Tactical overview Direction

UW UW OW N UW N N OW UW N

Sector

OW Equities, HY vs bonds, cash, com’s

Asset allocation

Bullish risk.

Equities

Long

US, IT, Defensives, EU KO, MEX, Banks. J-REITs SWE

Bonds

Flat

EU vs. US & UK. OW UW 5yr in US. Spain, Italy, Brazil

Credit

Small OW

FX

Bullish USD.

Comd’s

UW on supply and slower China

103

EM$ -2.1% -3.9% 0.6% 1.0% 0.5% 3.4% 0.7% 6.1% -3.5% 6.0% 0.9%

Country

HY, FINs, NEXGEM; long end flattening. USD vs. Carry CAD, NZD, CZK. from INR, Long NOK. MXN vs IDR CLP. Short Energy; long Ag.

Source: J.P. Morgan

5

Global Asset Allocation The J.P. Morgan View 09 May 2014

Jan Loeys (1-212) 834-5874 [email protected]

Global Economic Outlook Summary Real GDP

Real GDP

% over a year ago

% over previous period, saar

2013

2014

United States Canada Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Peru Uruguay Venezuela

1.9 2.0 2.6 4.9 2.3 4.1 4.3 4.5 1.1 5.0 4.7 1.3

2.3 2.4 1.8 -1.5 1.4 2.9 4.6 3.3 3.1 5.0 3.0 -1.0

Asia/Pacific Japan Australia New Zealand EM Asia China India EM Asia ex China/India Hong Kong Indonesia Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand

4.6 1.5 2.4 2.7 6.2 7.7 4.6 4.0 2.9 5.8 3.0 4.7 7.2 4.1 2.1 2.9

Western Europe Euro area Germany France Italy Spain Norway Sweden United Kingdom EMEA EM Czech Republic Hungary Israel Poland Romania Russia South Africa Turkey Global Developed markets Emerging markets Source: J.P. Morgan

6

2015

Consumer prices % over a year ago

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

4Q13

2Q14

2.9 2.6 2.9  3.0 1.8  4.2 4.5 4.0 3.8 5.5 4.0 2.5

4.1 2.7 0.7 -0.7 -2.1 6.5 3.2 7.1 3.9 3.3 -3.4 0.0

2.6 2.9 2.0 -0.1 2.8 -0.3 3.3 4.7 0.7 5.7 8.2 2.3

0.1 1.9 0.2 -4.5 -0.1 2.5 5.3 2.0 2.5 5.5 1.8 -8.5

3.0 2.2 2.5 -0.8 2.2 3.7 4.7 1.5 4.0 4.8 2.5 0.0

3.0 2.5 2.4 -4.6 2.3 4.2 4.3 2.0 3.9 4.8 3.0 2.5

3.0 2.7 2.6 -1.4 2.2 4.0 5.0 2.5 3.7 6.0 3.0 2.0

1.2 0.9 4.5 25.7 5.8 2.5 1.8 2.3 3.7 3.0 6.3 52.9

1.9 1.6 5.2 34.0 6.7 4.5 2.4 2.0 3.7 3.2 8.1 57.2

4.5 1.1 2.8 2.9 6.1 7.2 5.2 4.2 2.8 4.9 3.9 5.5 6.6 4.5 3.2 2.6

4.7 1.4 3.0 2.8 6.4 7.2 6.5 4.6 2.5 5.7 3.9 5.1 6.8 5.0 3.7 4.2

5.2  0.9 2.6 4.8 7.4 9.2 6.3 4.2  2.8 5.5  4.4 7.3 5.2 0.3 0.3 5.8

4.8 0.7 3.2 3.8 6.7 7.6 5.7 5.2 4.5 6.0 3.6 8.2 6.1 6.1 7.3 2.4

0.1 -0.4 0.5 0.3 -1.8 -1.2 2.1 1.5 1.7 2.0 -0.9 1.1 3.5 1.6 3.5 1.3 1.9 4.0

1.7 1.4 2.2 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.0 1.6 2.8 2.5 3.7 2.9 3.2 0.5 2.3 1.9

2.2 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.5 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.5 3.8 3.2 3.5 1.8 3.2 4.0

1.1 0.6 1.3 -0.2 -0.5 0.3 1.9 2.1 3.4 2.8 1.4 3.2 1.8 2.8 7.2 2.9 0.7 3.1

2.4 1.2 4.6

2.8 1.9 4.3

3.3 2.4 4.9 

3.4 2.4 5.0 

  



 







  



  



  



  



4Q14    

4Q15

2.0  1.8  5.2 40.0 6.5 4.3  2.9 3.2 4.1 3.0 7.8 58.2

1.9 2.1  4.7 45.0 6.2 3.0 3.0 4.0 3.1 2.5 7.3 35.0

4.6 4.5 1.8 3.2 5.0 5.9 4.5 3.2  1.5 4.1  3.8 3.5 8.7 3.2 1.1 -0.5

2.7 -4.5 3.5 0.8 5.7 6.8 5.0 3.8 2.0 5.0 3.5 3.8 5.3 3.2 2.8 3.5

4.9 2.0 2.8 1.9 6.5 7.6 5.2 4.6 4.0 5.0 4.2 5.5 6.6 4.9 4.0 4.0

5.0 2.0 3.7 4.7 6.4 7.4 5.7 4.6 4.0 4.5 3.8 5.5 7.0 6.6 4.2 4.0

3.2 1.4 2.7 1.6 4.0 2.9 10.6 3.3 4.3 8.4 1.1 3.0 3.5 2.0 0.6 1.7

3.3 3.5 2.9 2.1 3.2 2.1 8.6 3.2 3.6 6.2 1.7 3.3 4.0 3.0 1.2 2.6

3.0 3.0 2.0 1.8 3.1 1.9 8.6 3.1 3.4 4.6 2.5 3.5 3.6 2.3 1.6 2.9

3.2 2.4 2.6 2.0 3.7 3.1 7.0 3.5 3.5 4.6 2.9 5.2 3.8 2.3 1.9 3.8

1.5 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.7 2.4 7.1 2.7 3.1 7.5 2.2 2.7 2.0 6.0 3.0 3.8 2.1

1.8 1.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.9 1.0 3.2 -0.8 2.0 3.0 3.2 3.5 0.4 -3.5 0.1 0.0

2.0 1.8 2.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.3 3.0 1.1  1.6 2.3 3.3 2.5 3.0 0.0 2.2  1.1

2.1 2.0 2.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.9 2.5 2.5 2.5  1.3 2.0 3.6 3.0 2.0 1.5 3.7  4.0

2.2 2.0 2.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.0 2.3 2.5 4.5 3.5 1.6 2.0 3.2 5.0

1.0 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 2.3 0.1 2.1 5.1 1.1 0.7 1.9 0.7 1.8 6.4 5.4 7.5

0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 2.0 -0.3 1.9 5.7 0.7 0.4 2.3 1.0 1.3 7.3 6.4 8.6

1.1 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.2 1.9 0.2 1.9 5.2 1.8 1.5 2.0 1.4 3.6 6.0 6.2 8.1

1.3 1.1 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.2 1.4 2.1 4.1 1.5 3.1 2.2 2.2 3.4 4.4 5.4 5.5

3.0 1.9 5.0 

2.0 1.5 2.8

2.5 1.5 4.1 

3.3 2.5 4.8

3.4 2.6 4.9

2.3 1.2 4.3

2.6  1.8  4.1



 

 





  



   

 



2.5 1.8  3.9

2.6 1.8 4.0

  



Jan Loeys (1-212) 834-5874 [email protected]

Global Asset Allocation The J.P. Morgan View 09 May 2014

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Jan Loeys (1-212) 834-5874 [email protected]

Global Asset Allocation The J.P. Morgan View 09 May 2014

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