The Left Field Corner
August 2014
www.closecallsports.com
THE LEFT FIELD CORNER Gil’s Call: The Blame Game
In the LF Corner…
Thinking about the Psychology of Scapegoating and Ejections
Confusion on the Field With more Rule 7.13 chaos, this time in Miami, the rule’s clarity is called into question. One thing that is clear: everyone has a different interpretation of it.
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A ball from the bullpen found its way into the outfield during play, begging the question, “when can ‘time’ be called?” 7
Featured Sabermetrics An overview of Ejection and Replay Review statistics through early August, featuring data, projection and analysis.
The 2014 season has brought significant changes into our game at the MLB level, with Replay Review, Rule 7.13 and the influx of MiLB CallUp assignments most notable among them. Each of these changes has produced certain thoughts
allowing fans and analysts to jump to conclusions about their perceptions of the true state of umpiring in baseball. My work in the realm of psychology and cognitive distortions has taken me Continued on page 2
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Replay Review Success Rates: See the best and worst teams, rated by Team Success Percentage (TSP).
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Objectively tracking and analyzing umpire ejections, video replay reviews and their corresponding calls, with great regard for the rules and spirit of the game.
About Accuracy: Revisiting Pre-Season Replay Review Predictions During Replay’s post-2013 development, the special replay committee, including Joe Garagiola, Jr., Tony La Russa and Joe Torre, conducted a series of interviews and press conferences, most held in conjunction with MLB’s grand Instant Replay experiment during November’s Arizona Fall League at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick.
Two significant issues posed to the trio concerned replay’s incidence—how often a play would be challenged—and replay’s overturned rate, or how often a play would be overturned. To conclude the AFL experiment, 15 total plays were Continued on page 4
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The Left Field Corner
August 2014
Gil’s Call (continued) from the standard early fare of Freud and Jung through the more recent (and unconventional) works of names like Winch, Tennov and (Katie) Mitchell and past the phenomenon known as scapegoat theory. For instance, it doesn’t take much insight to understand that people—much less umpire— blaming or scapegoating is a common strategy employed by a subject—in our sport, by players, coaches, managers and some broadcasters—to shirk personal (or team) responsibility for an undesirable outcome for the person (or team). The medical definition of this term is similar: “A process in which the mechanisms of projection or displacement are utilized in focusing feelings of aggression, hostility, frustration, etc., upon another individual or group; the amount of blame being unwarranted.” We scapegoat or project our negative emotions onto others who in turn become a scapegoat to avoid the psychological stress of dealing with our own problems. This is a Level 2, or immature, Freudian defense mechanism. For instance, “I don’t trust [class of people]” is a belief in which the subject has projected feelings of conviction and lack of self-confidence onto an entire group, which includes people the subject has never before met or even someone the subject is presently holding as a confidant. In reality, this is rarely a bona fide admonishment of such class; instead, it is the psychological projection of unpleasant thoughts and feelings onto “others,” who then become scapegoat(s) for subject’s own problems. When the subject says, “I don’t trust [people],” the subject really means, “I don’t trust myself.”
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When “class of people” becomes “umpires,” playing field scapegoating produces frustration, venting and, sometimes, a crossing of the Rule 9.01(d) line. In the broadcast booth, scapegoating becomes much more evident, for the viewing audience can hear the broadcasters’ frustration. As broadcasters attempt to justify their “umpires are bad” argument, their cases often begin to break down. The longer the on-field argument, the less cogent the broadcast transcript. Take this Ron Darling transcript: “It’s a joke…Who cares if you take any kind of jawing…There’s no reason that, as a young umpire, you can’t take a little bit from the bench. That’s how it goes, man up.” On the field, the young umpire Ben May had warned Mets Manager Terry Collins and, in response, Collins’ argument grew louder and more unsportsmanlike. Rules 9.01(d) and 9.02(a) all but mandated the subsequent ejection: “No player, manager, coach or substitute shall object to any such judgment decisions.” Especially balls and strikes. Or nearly every ejection for arguing a Replay Review decision. At a young age when we all adopt an egocentric view of the world with great fear of abandonment, children will often act out and act up just to draw attention, for with limited experience, the child’s paradigm holds that any attention is good attention for it means, “I am not being abandoned.” So too does a manager regress, throwing a tantrum after a call that doesn’t go his team’s way. Further, it shows his team that he isn’t abandoning them (though by being exiled to the locker room, he is technically doing just that…it’s just the scapegoated umpire’s fault that he can’t be on the bench, not his). So when Yunel Escobar made a spectacle of himself after being ejected arguing Bill Welke’s strike one call, he spiked his helmet and threw his bat, yelling repeatedly to draw attention to himself and the perceived transgressions of the umpire, lest anyone question why Escobar didn’t (a) swing at the first pitch or (b) stick around for strikes two and three. For after all, it is never our own fault; it’s always some other person or class of people. Blame the umpire! Cheers, Gil
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The Left Field Corner
August 2014
Ump Sabermetrics: Evaluating Ejection and Replay Statistics The numbers are in through Game 1,713 of the 2,430-game MLB regular season. This article will present, dissect and then project ejections and Replay Reviews in 2014. With the MLB regular season now past the 70% mark, the Replay Review numbers are beginning to form definitive trends, which are certainly ripe for analysis. Ejections MLB has thus far experienced 147 ejections, which projects to 208 ejections by season’s end.
not, in fact, destroying “arguing with the umpire theatre” of baseball lore. The most common type of ejection in baseball has always been of the balls/strikes variety, which this season has accounted for 74 of the 147 ejections—just one over half (50%+1). Meanwhile, it is Replay Review itself taking the No. 2 spot with 19 ejections, followed by the standard fare of intentionally throwing at a batter (14), Unsportsmanlike-NEC including arguing said ejection or warnings for throwing at a batter (9), fighting (7), check swings (6), balks (5), safe/out (4), fair/foul (4) and so forth.
Compare this figure to 180 ejections in 2013, 179 in 2012, 199 in 2011, 201 in 2010, 165 in 2009 The Red Sox and Rays share the top and 208 in 2008 and it becomes spot for most ejected team with 10 evident that Replay Review is each, while the Indians, Angels and
Bill Miller’s crew discusses the complex play in Oakland. Nationals bring up the bottom with one toss apiece. The AL East again leads the divisional race with 32 heave-hos, while the AL West again has the fewest with 21. The most common day of the Continued on page 5
Don’t Block the Plate: Calling the Impossible Play to Call July 31, 2014: With one out and three on, Reds batter Todd Frazier hit a 1-2 cutter from Marlins pitcher Bryan Morris on a fly ball to right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, who threw to catcher Jeff Mathis as Reds baserunner R3 Zack Cozart attempted to score from third base. After Mathis easily tagged Cozart and Winters ruled the runner out, Reds Manager Bryan Price requested and received a Crew Chief Review under the auspices of Rule 7.13(2), holding that Mathis illegally “blocked the pathway of the runner as he was attempting to score.”
Marlins skipper Mike Redmond was ejected for arguing a Replay Review decision that reversed HP Umpire Mike Winters’ original call.
After a lengthy six-minute review, Winters’ out call was reversed and the Reds awarded the score and tying run, producing Mike Redmond’s immediate ejection for arguing New York’s call. Continued on page 6
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The Left Field Corner
August 2014
About Accuracy (Continued) alternatively, one call every four games.
challenged over the course of five games, with three overturned calls (.800 Replay Affirmation Percentage). This figure was consistent with a previous 2010 ESPN study which concluded that of all plays close enough to merit replay review, just 20% were officiated incorrectly—the remainder were either correct or too close to call via replay review. La Russa, for instance, predicted that Replay Review would be used to overturn one call every five games; furthermore, La Russa reasoned that nearly all challenged plays would be reversed, assuming managers would reserve their challenges for “the obvious miss.” As discussed in the June 2014 edition of The Left Field Corner (“The Obvious Miss”), this clearly is not the case, as just 428 of the 902 plays challenged through August 7 have been overturned.
Consider that a regulation baseball game must have, at the very least, 52 calls per game (27 outs + 24 outs + 1 runproducing play that does not result in an out), we assume for illustrative purposes that several calls during a game that exceeds 52 calls may be of the strike three variety, etc., so we use 52 calls per game for simplicity and to provide a definitive lowpoint for accuracy, which is to say, “MLB umpire veteran Joe West accuracy must be at least X.”
On the bases, and his fellow umpires are accurate over 99.5% of the time.
Nonetheless, with 428 overturned calls and 902 challenges in 1,713 completed big league contests, two facts come to light, both relevant to the two issues posed during the AFL series: First, these statistics demonstrate that the rate of review is one-in-1.9—rounded to roughly once every two games.
Second and more to the point, a call has been reversed to the tune of one-in-4.002—once every four games, which is a more frequent rate of reversal than predicted by MLB prior to the season. On the other hand, ESPN’s study had concluded that approximately 1.3 calls per game were “close” enough to merit review, meaning that umpires missed approximately 0.26 calls per game or,
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Because the statistics suggest that ESPN’s 2010 study finding that umpires miss 20% of all close calls was indeed an accurate representation and reflection of officiating in Major League Baseball, further exploration of the data begins to form a wager as to the accuracy of MLB umpires.
For the sake of clarity, we convert .26 to 1.00 by the rough factor of four for whole-unit analysis. 52 multiplied by four is 208. In other words, based on ESPN’s data and the 2014 Replay Review overturn rate, umpires miss one non-ball/strike call once every 208 chances, which corresponds to an accuracy rate of 99.52%. Yes, you have that right. MLB umpires are accurate 99.52% of the time… and due to our methodology, that’s the low-end estimate. So the next time a broadcaster, fan or even friend (or foe?) complains about the state of umpiring, show them the numbers. 207 out of 208? I think we can live with that. ∎
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The Left Field Corner
August 2014
Ump Sabermetrics (Continued) week to be thrown out is Sunday (29), the least off-day Thursday (13).
Replay Review success rates
Ejected teams go onto win their ballgames just 37% of the time, a winning percentage significantly below league average for all games. This year’s top performing umpires to date are Dan Bellino and Toby Basner with six ejections each (25 and 21 points, respectively), though Mark Carlson’s four QOC = Correct calls in four chances are the highest of all umpires (Carlson has 15 points). Will Little’s 22 points leads the call-up umpires while Seth Buckminster’s -5 is the lowest among the AAA crowd. Tim Welke’s -6 points are the fewest for an MLB umpire with no ejections this season (Schrieber has -6 points, but with one ejection). (Instant) Replay Reviews In the world of Replay Reviews, Rick Renteria’s Cubs once again lead baseball in making use of Replay Review the most often (42 times), while the Milwaukee Brewers have only gone to the tape 19 times. Not surprisingly, Renteria is the league’s Manager’s Challenge leader, though his .474 Challenge Success Percentage is eighth worst in MLB.
Worst…TOR The Toronto Blue Jays retook control of MLB’s worst team in Replay Reviews with a .237 (9/38) Team Success Percentage, narrowly edging out the Cardinals (.240), Reds (.304) and Rays (.325). St. Louis’ Matheny, however, is still the least successful in challenges.
There exists a negative correlation between making use of replay significantly more often and lack of overall replay success, relative to other league teams. Following the Cubs, for instance, are the Rays’ 40 reviews, whose associated .325 Team Success Percentage (TSP) ranks 27th out of the league’s 30 teams. The most successful manager is Mike Redmond (.762), whose Marlins rank second, tied with Detroit, in TSP. Full results are listed below: Team Success Percentage – TSP 1. NY Yankees - .667 (16/24) 2. Tigers, Marlins - .630 (17/27) 4. TEX Rangers - .621 (18/29) 5. ATL Braves - .619 (13/21) 6. KC Royals - .607 (17/28) 7. BAL Orioles - .591 (13/22) 8. SF Giants - .589 (20/34) 9. MIL Brewers - .579 (11/19) 10. HOU Astros - .522 (12/23) 11. MIN Twins - .519 (14/27) 12. WAS Nationals - .517 (15/29) 13. Mets, Athletics - .500 15. BOS Red Sox - .482 (13/27)
League Average - .473. 16. LA Dodgers - .467 (14/30) 17. CH White Sox - .462 (12/26) 18. SD Padres - .455 (10/22) 19. PIT Pirates - .448 (17/38) 20. COL Rockies - .441 (15/34) 21. LA Angels - .433 (13/30) 22. CHC, PHI - .429 24. ARI, CLE - .424 (14/33) 26. SEA Mariners - .333 (10/30) 27. TB Rays - .325 (13/40) 28. CIN Reds - .304 (7/23) 29. STL Cardinals - .240 (6/25) 30. TOR Blue Jays - .237 (9/38)
First…NYY New York leapfrogged Atlanta and Miami with multiple successes from Joe Girardi, whose .727 manager’s Challenge Success Percentage is second to Mike Redmond’s .762. In TSP, the Yankees are .667 (16/24), ahead of DET/MIA (tied, .630).
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The Left Field Corner Don’t Block the Plate (Continued) At the time, both broadcasts (Cincinnati and Miami) had very strong opinions on what the proper call should be—the opinions were simply the exact opposite of each other. In the Cincinnati booth: “I don’t think there’s any question about this one. He went over to block the plate, Mathis did, before he had the ball. The only way you can get in front of the plate is if the throw takes you there and obviously he did not do that. I think they’re going to overrule this.”
August 2014 Cincinnati applauded the correct ruling: “They reviewed it in New York, they did it for a long time, and I think they got it right.” Miami bewailed the injustice: “Game’s going to change from this day on…I don’t care what I read, what they say afterward, it’s not the right call. It’s a bad call.” With 52 Rule 7.13 reviews to date, umpires’ original ruling have been upheld 85% of the time (44/52), with the eight overturned calls all of the out-to-safe variety.
The two plays reviewed under the Rule 7.13 Crew In the Miami booth: “Everything done perfectly: Chief Review heading that have been reversed (both Stanton times it, one hop throw, on the money. He doesn’t have a chance. Mathis has the ball, he can do whatever Keeping it Fair: Images captured at the approximate time the catcher he wants…If received the throw; the play on the left was reversed to a Rule 7.13 violation they change (CIN-MIA) while the play on the right was legal (WAS-CHC). this, I’m sorry. If they change this, they better change the rules out-to-safe) were both reversed because the runner of the entire games. You can’t do it any more perfectly. physically touched home plate before being tagged He’s got the ball, he gets over to put the tag on him.” by the catcher. Sympathy from Cincinnati: “In a way, you kind of feel bad for Mathis because he’s played his entire career doing that same play, being taught for years that’s the way you set up…But Cozart didn’t slide because he had nowhere to slide.”
In other words, on-field umpires have yet to actually declare a Rule 7.13(2) violation, much less a catcher blocking violation that is reviewed and overturned.
As such, it follows that change—at least this one—is slow in the sense that on-field umpires are either No sympathy from Miami: “He should be out anyway, erring on the side of caution or are otherwise he didn’t even slide! He’s trying to get a call as dissuaded from ruling such a violation in real time. opposed to playing the game the way it should be.” Meanwhile, New York used the mid-home camera angle, located in the press box behind the plate, as the definitive angle to overturn Winters’ call.
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At least in New York, as we have seen, Replay Officials have minutes and replays on end with which to form their conclusion, a conclusion that we have seen remains ripe for controversy. ∎
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The Left Field Corner
August 2014
Case Play Corner: What of an Extra Ball on the Field (2014-3) An extra ball flew onto Cleveland's playing field during play, producing confusion that ultimately resulted in an out at third base. With none out and two on (R1, R3), Indians batter Yan Gomes hit a double off Reds pitcher Johnny Cueto to deep right field and off the outfield wall, where it was fielded by right fielder Jay Bruce, who threw to cut-off man second baseman Kris Negron to shortstop Zack Cozart, who threw to third baseman Ramon Santiago as Indians R1 David Murphy, who had rounded third base, attempted to dive back into the bag as the tag was applied, resulting in the inning's first out as called by 3B Umpire Gerry Davis. Replays indicate that during play and while the live ball was being thrown back towards the infield, Reds pitcher Jumbo Diaz, warming in the right field bullpen, completely airmailed a practice toss over the outfield fence and onto the playing field, where the bullpen ball coincidentally rolled toward F4 Negron, who was busy catching F9 Bruce's throw.
(a) Weather or darkness makes immediate further play impossible. (b) Light failure makes play difficult. (c) An Accident incapacitates a person. (d) Manager request, for a conference. (e) Umpire wishes to examine the ball. (f) Fielder carries the ball out of play. (g) Umpire orders a person removed. (h) “Except in the cases stated in paragraphs (b) and (c)(1) of this rule, no umpire shall call “Time” while a play is in progress.” Accordingly, “Time” could not have legally been called during play. The play is additionally not interference nor obstruction as no fielder impeded the runner’s progress. Hypothetically, had the umpires ruled Diaz’s act unsportsmanlike, intentional and purposefully designed to put the opposition in jeopardy, remedial action pursuant to Rule 9.01(c) may be authorized.
Multi Ball: Cozart fields Bruce’s thrown ball as Diaz’s errantly pitched ball rolls on the outfield grass close by.
After being tagged out at third, R1 Murphy pointed toward the second, unauthorized baseball as the argument was picked up, to no avail, by Terry Francona. What is the proper call? Official Baseball Rule (OBR) 5.02 states that after the umpire calls “Play” and until the umpire calls “Time,” or until for legal cause, the ball is alive. Rule 5.09 provides reasons the ball may become dead “for legal cause,” such as a hit batsman, umpire or offensive interference, a foul ball, etc., while Rule 5.10 lists opportunities wherein the umpire may call “Time.” These include:
For instance, if umpires ruled that the unsportsmanlike, intentional and purposeful act directly and overtly resulted in the out at third base (e.g., that Diaz deliberately threw the ball to confuse Murphy, who was indeed completely confused by it), “nullify the act” principles may have been employed. Admittedly, this is a very high, tough and somewhat improbable standard or burden to prove. Of course, if 9.01(c) came into play, Diaz would likewise have been ejected pursuant to Rule 9.01(d). ∎
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The Left Field Corner
August 2014
www.closecallsports.com
Just the Stats: A glimpse at the UEFL Leaderboard UEFL – Regular Division # 1 1 3 4 5 6
Pts 69 69 67 65 63 61
UEFL – Express Division # 1 2 3 4 5 5
Member Russ Youthministeradam AlwaysOsinski Tom Slick UmpAtty Toss ‘em, Fikester
Umpires - Ejections # 1 1 1 4 4 6
EJ 6 6 6 5 5 4
Pts 69 65 53 52 41 41
Member Youthministeradam Tom Slick Jdphenicie Kickersrule QuickTrigger3 Red@ssump
Umpires - Points
Umpire Name Dan Bellino Bill Miller Toby Basner Jordan Baker Mark Ripperger [11 Tied]
# 1 2 3 4 5 5
Pts 25 21 20 18 17 17
Umpire Name Dan Bellino Will Little Toby Basner Chris Guccione Alan Porter Tim Timmons
3B Umpire Andy Fletcher winds up and ejects Cubs Manager Rick Renteria for arguing a foul ball call of the non-reviewable variety.
From the Board: A look at Recent UEFL Appeals Board Cases Case #
Decision
Vote
Synopsis
E-119
Affirmed
5-0-0
E-144
Reversed
3-1-0
1 Confirmed and 4 Upheld Fletcher’s foul ball call. Rationale to Confirm was clear and convincing evidence to suggest a foul ball. Rationale to Uphold was lack of clear and convincing evidence to suggest otherwise. Overturned Wolcott’s check swing (no swing) call due to convincing visual evidence to suggest the batter attempted to strike the pitch. Dissenting rationale to Uphold was lack of clear and convincing evidence to suggest Wolcott’s ruling was incorrect, pursuant to precedent.
The UEFL Appeals Board is comprised of: Gil Imber (Chair), Jeremy Dircks (ex-officio), tmac, RichMSN, Arik G, Turducken, and JD. Non-voting members include johnnyg08, Joe Gravina and cyclone14.
This publication was produced by Close Call Sports and the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League Objectively tracking and analyzing umpire ejections, video replay reviews and their corresponding calls, with great regard for the rules and spirit of the game. All inquiries regarding the content of The Left Field Corner may be sent to info @ closecallsports.com. Close Call Sports, Umpire Ejection Fantasy League & The Left Field Corner are unaffiliated with Major League Baseball, its teams, or any associated properties or interests. Material contained herein is not an endorsement or complicity on behalf of MLB. This research pamphlet has been produced for educational purposes.
