The Left Field Corner

June 2014

THE LEFT FIELD CORNER ’14 Content Passes ’13 UEFL

In the LF Corner…

Quantity of posting activity has already passed 2013 levels.

Replay Analysis MLB welcomed 11 MiLB to the Show over the first two months of 2014; how has MiLBU impacted Replay Review affirmation rates?

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Replay Review is being overused, which has led to several unexpected consequences around Major League Baseball.

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Featured Sabermetrics Though expanded Instant Replay Review was designed to eliminate the argument and ejection, MLB is on pace to far surpass 2013’s ejections total. 3

Through the month of May 2014, Close Call Sports & Umpire Ejection Fantasy League has already surpassed the number of posts produced throughout the entire year of 2013, in no small part due to the

incredible amount of Replay Review decisions being rendered every day in baseball. The numbers, as of June 4, 2014: ! 526 Posts thus far in 2014; ! 505 Total Posts in 2013; ! 479 Total Posts in 2012; ! 268 Total Posts in 2011.∎

Replay Review Success Rates: See the best and worst teams, rated by Replay Review Success Rate.

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Objectively tracking and analyzing umpire ejections, video replay reviews and their corresponding calls, with great regard for the rules and spirit of the game.

Heating Up: Ejections on Pace For Highest Seasonal Mark in 6 Years Major League Baseball’s adoption of expanded instant replay and the Replay Review procedure, industry insiders and baseball commentators alike speculated and predicted a sharp drop in ejection activity. Though I too anticipated an ejections decrease from 2013 to ’14, I capped this figure at a 25to-35 percent decrease because a grand majority of

ejections, historically, have come as the result of arguing calls that are not reviewable under the 2014 Replay Review system. Nonetheless, Rays skipper Joe Maddon concluded that Replay has “reduced the opportunities to be Continued on page 3

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The Left Field Corner

June 2014

Minor Details: 11 MiLB Umpires Make Big League Debuts Eleven Call-Up umpires made their big-league debuts during the first two months of the 2014 MLB season, necessitated in part by the expansion of instant replay and in part due to injuries, bereavement and other leaves and absences from the MLBU staff. ! 29 Sean Barber (IL) debuted at third base on March 30, Opening Night, in San Diego. Crew Chief: Fieldin Culbreth. ! 31 Pat Hoberg (PCL) made his debut at third base on March 31, Opening Day, in Arizona. Crew Chief: Tom Hallion. ! 47 Gabe Morales (IL) made his debut at third base during an April 2 double header in

Oakland. Crew Chief: Mike Winters. ! 67 Seth Buckminster (IL) debuted at third base on April 8 in Seattle. Crew Chief: Winters. ! 40 Jeff Gosney (IL) debuted at third base on April 12 in Baltimore. Crew Chief: Paul Emmel. ! 96 Chris Segal (PCL) debuted at first base on April 14 in Anaheim. Crew Chief: Tim Welke. ! 75 Tom Woodring (PCL) made his debut at third base on April 16 in New York (AL). Chief: Jim Reynolds. ! 97 Ben May (IL) debuted at third on April 17 in Minnesota. CrewChief: Hallion. Continued on page 4

Pacific Coast League umpire Pat Hoberg made his debut at the Giants-Diamondbacks season opener, March 31 in Arizona.

The Obvious Miss: Replay Overuse Leads to Unexpected Results When baseball first approved expanded replay over the offseason and then instituted the technology in various forms during the Arizona Fall League and Spring Training periods, then-Special Assistant to the Commissioner and member of baseball’s Special Committee for On-Field Matters Tony La Russa continually referred to “the obvious miss,” noting that replay’s purpose was to correct the larger errors of the human element.

Umpires Kerwin Danley and Gary Cederstrom consult Replay to check the count, producing a five-plus minute delay in Los Angeles. 2

The sentiment was echoed by MLB proper, with a league official saying, “the system was put in place for critical game situations and obvious misses, not the ‘bang-bang’ play.” Yet as Replay Review statistics indicate—for instance, as of June 4, 120 calls have stood versus Continued on page 5

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The Left Field Corner

June 2014

Reasons for Ejection: 2013 vs. 2014, Both Through 6/4 Reason for Ejection

2013

2014

% of 2013 #

Total # of Ejections

65

74

114%

Balls/Strikes

26

43

165%

Fighting

4

6

150%

Unsportsmanlike

0

11

X

Throwing At

4

5

125%

Safe/Out

19

2

11%

Fair/Foul

4

2

50%

Check Swing

0

2

X

Heating Up (Continued) adversarial with the umpires,” also stating, “there’s no reason to be upset.” Maddon then proceeded to find himself ejected at the hands of Plate Umpire Brian O’Nora for arguing an Instant Replay Review decision that reversed 1B Umpire Doug Eddings’ safe call in the 9th inning of May 2nd’s Rays-Yankees game. With 74 total ejections as of June 4, through 884 games played, Major League Baseball is on pace to see 203 ejections during the 2014 Regular Season, breaking the 200-ejections barrier for the first time since 2010’s 201 heave-hos. At this rate, 2014 will have the most ejections since 2008’s 208 dismissals. Year-over-year, as the above table demonstrates, Balls/Strikes have monopolized the reason for ejections category, increasing to 43 thus far in 2014 compared to just 26 in 2013. Add two more to the 2014 tally (zero for 2013) if check swings are to be included. Add another one for balks (zero for 2013). The biggest change, year-over-year, pertains to the safe/out call, with those ejections dropping dramatically thanks to Replay Review.

Then again, the ejection reason “Replay Review” wherein a manager is ejected for arguing the results of a Replay Review was included in the above table as a subset of “Unsportsmanlike-NEC.” Managers and coaches have gotten tossed for arguing a Replay Review decision in 2014 a total of six times with the Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds leading the charge (BOS, CIN 2; TB, TEX 1). Taking these five ejections away from the total data leaves 69 ejections in 2014, which still projects to an increase of 10 ejections over 2013’s 180 total. By month, April once again proved to be a slow start to the season with 27 total April 2014 ejections compared to 26 in 2013. That figure is relatively flat. In May, that 2014 number rose to 40 heave-hos, which compares to just 24 in 2013. Then again, 2013 featured 15 ejections through the first four days of June, compared to just five in 2014. Still, ejections are presently up in 2014 with an overwhelming majority for the non-reviewable Balls/Strikes reason, suggesting that player and coaches alike have taken to filling the ejections void by clamoring to a traditional reason for argument. ∎

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The Left Field Corner

June 2014

Minor Details (Continued) ! 85 Stu Scheurwater (PCL) made his debut at second base on April 25 in Los Angeles (NL). Crew Chief: Larry Vanover.

Replay Review success rates

! 62 Chad Whitson (IL) made his MLB debut at first base on May 15 in Cincinnati. Crew Chief: Vanover. (Also worked Replay on April 12). ! 59 Jon Byrne (IL) debuted at second base on May 16 in Washington, DC. Crew Chief: Dana DeMuth. ! Though not a debut, Angel Campos returned to Call-Up service after over a year out of MLB Regular Season ball with a May 21 stint in Baltimore that also featured a Buck Showalter Manager’s challenge of Campos’ out call in the 6th inning. Replay Review upheld Campos’ call. Minor Detail: Minor League Umpires and Replay Review At season’s beginning, there was some speculation that Review Affirmation Percentages (RAP) for Minor League umpires might be lower than RAP for those on the Major League staff. Here are the numbers:

MiLB Umpires MLB Umpires Totals

Reversed Affirmed

RAP

43 161 204

.522 .544 .540

47 192 239

Worst…CIN Bryan Price’s Cincinnati Reds have fared worse than all other teams when it comes to Replay Review. With a Team Success Percentage (TSP) of just .182, the Reds haven’t especially enjoyed their 11 reviews thus far in 2014.

This suggests the trend is true: MLB Umpires are affirmed at a greater percentage than their MiLB counterparts, at a statistically significant rate. For further consideration, we consider the “Stands/Confirmed” distribution, which appears as (Overturned = Reversed, above):

MiLB Umpires MLB Umpires Totals

Confirmed

Stands

Conf / St Ratio

18 101 119

29 91 120

.621 1.11 .992

Replay appears to confirm MLBU calls at a significantly greater rate than MiLBU rulings, whose calls are actually more likely to stand. Does this mean that MiLB umpires receive a greater rate of truly close calls, that MLB Umpires receive more frivolous challenges or that Replay Command is more apt to side with the tenured umpire? At the very least, this distribution explains why MiLB RAP is less than MLB RAP: The calls are simply closer and, correspondingly, more controversial. ∎

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First…MIA Mike Redmond of the Marlins has made the best use of his Manager’s Challenges to this point in 2014, firing 12 challenges and winning 10 of them (.833 MSP). The team as a whole is batting .688 thanks to 4 Crew Chief Reviews (3/4 Confirmed Calls).

This publication was produced by Close Call Sports and the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League. All Rights Reserved.

The Left Field Corner The Obvious Miss (Continued) 119 confirmed, teams are clearly using Replay Review for more than just “the obvious miss.” Replay is indeed being used for precisely the type of bang-bang play the Commissioner’s Office decidedly did not want the technology used for. Which has produced unintended consequences, colloquially referred to as Replay Reviews’ overuse.

June 2014 Record keeping reviews notably have led the class in “time of review,” a statistic that indicates that replay lengths have averaged slightly over two minutes. The total time of all reviews since Opening Day is set to soon pass the 1,000 minutes mark. That’s right, if you’ve watched all Replay Reviews so far in 2014, you’ve watched 1,000 minutes of umpires standing around wearing headsets while television broadcasts show slow-motion angle upon X-mo zoomed photo of each close play.

First, the overuse of Replay Review has debunked La Russa’s spring prediction that if a team challenges a call, the technology would undoubtedly overturn it at an exorbitantly high rate.

As for that “B” component, the time-of-replay statistic of approximately two minutes does not take into account several key delays-of-game:

Instead, it is the umpires who have thus far been affirmed at a rate of 54%, a figure that was even higher earlier in the season when teams were clearly not using the system as judiciously as La Russa had envisioned. Reviews are still ending like coin flips.

! The clock doesn’t start until the umpire actually initiates or begins the review process and ends when the decision is reached. Not factored in are the managers slowly trotting on the field to converse with the umpires nor the delay in resuming play after a decision has been rendered.

Second, the “Rule 7.13” loophole persisted early in the season wherein a manager would save themselves a valuable Manager’s Challenge by “requesting” a review on nearly any plate at home plate under the auspices of the home plate blocking/collision Rule 7.13 because, like a grandfathered HR boundary call or record keeping review, a Rule 7.13 review may only be initiated by the Crew Chief. This call is confirmed more often than any other challenged or reviewed call. And while the plate-blocking aspect of Rule 7.13 was reviewed, the New York crew was also obliged by rule to consider the actual, challengeable safe/out aspect of the play, effectively allowing the manager a Manager’s Challenge without charging his team with having used one. Third, and speaking of record keeping reviews, umpires themselves have called for the replay headsets to conduct checks of the count or number of outs six times thus far in 2014, which exceeds all of 2013’s “calls to the press box” by 67%—and the 2014 season is not even half through. Which leads to fourth, which can really be broken down into an “A” and a “B” component.

! The clock doesn’t even come out of the box if the play isn’t actually reviewed. This means that on a whacker at first, if the manager jogs out to the first base umpire, spends 30 seconds waiting for his clubhouse video replay coordinator’s decision and then, upon receiving a thumbs down from his bench coach, returns to the dugout without having challenged the play, this 45-second delay isn’t tracked anywhere. Nor are the umps credited with a correct call—there’s no “confirmed non-replay” stat. As for the numbers, confirmed calls take about 1:35 to adjudicate while overturned calls average 2:05 to complete. Add another 35 seconds and you’ll find calls that stand, which top out the times-to-decide at 2:40, or over one minute longer than confirmations. Succinctly, the overuse of Replay Review has added even more time to an already-lengthy game, which brings up point number five: Because of the great number of plays that “stand” since upholding a call is the natural decision for the closest of bang-bang plays that Replay was not designed to be used for, review times are even lengthier and give credence to the vaunted “Replay is broken” mentality when an inconclusive banger invariably stands on review. ∎

This publication was produced by Close Call Sports and the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League. All Rights Reserved.

5

The Left Field Corner

June 2014

Just the Stats: A glimpse at the UEFL Leaderboard UEFL – Regular Division # 1 2 3 4 5 6

Pts 51 49 42 41 39 38

UEFL – Express Division # 1 2 3 4 5 6

Member youthministeradam Russ AlwaysOsinski UmpAtty Tom Slick BkSl14812, toss ‘em

Pts 51 39 30 29 27 26

Umpires - Ejections # 1 2 2 4 4 4

EJ 5 4 4 3 3 3

Member youthministeradam Tom Slick Red@ssump QuickTrigger3 Endy jdphenicie

Umpires - Points

Umpire Name Dan Bellino Fieldin Culbreth Toby Basner Larry Vanover Seth Buckminster Tim Timmons

# 1 2 3 4 4 4

Pts 18 16 15 12 12 12

Umpire Name Dan Bellino Toby Basner Tim Timmons Sean Barber Greg Gibson Quinn Wolcott

Umpire Dan Bellino entertains Red Sox Manager John Farrell’s complaints after ejecting the BoSox skip.

From the Board: A look at Recent UEFL Appeals Board Cases Case #

Decision

Vote

Synopsis

E-035

6-0-0

Board dismissed the appeal, finding UEFL demonstrated ample precedent that ejections during a mound visit are QOC Correct/Incorrect.

E-039

Affirmed Dismissed Reversed

2-3-0

E-045 E-056

Affirmed Affirmed

6-0-0 5-0-0

Ejecting umpire’s classification was overturned to Secondary on a call of interference that occurred nearest another umpire. Board confirmed that the Original Ruling of a check swing was correct.

E-057

Denied

1-0-0

Board determined a lack of clear and convincing evidence through which to confirm or overturn the Original Ruling of Correct. Cert denied as non-logged in user attempted to initiate challenge in violation of UEFL Rule 6-1.

The UEFL Appeals Board is comprised of: Gil (Chair), Jeremy, tmac, RichMSN, Arik G, Turducken, and JD. Non-voting members include johnnyg08, Joe Gravina and cyclone14.

This publication was produced by Close Call Sports and the Umpire Ejection Fantasy League Objectively tracking and analyzing umpire ejections, video replay reviews and their corresponding calls, with great regard for the rules and spirit of the game. All inquiries regarding the content of The Left Field Corner may be sent to info @ closecallsports.com. Close Call Sports, Umpire Ejection Fantasy League & The Left Field Corner are unaffiliated with Major League Baseball, its teams, or any associated properties or interests. Material contained herein is not an endorsement or complicity on behalf of MLB. This research pamphlet has been produced for educational purposes.