Interested Parties FROM: Global Strategy Group December 6, 2017 DATE: NEW POLL RESULTS – Race Against Paul Ryan Tightening, Voters in Ryan’s District Oppose GOP Tax Plan RE: TO:





Voters in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District are showing signs of dissatisfaction with Paul Ryan. The race between Ryan and Democrat Randy Bryce has tightened to a six-point margin, and voters in Ryan’s district oppose the Republican tax plan that Ryan championed by 16 points. Key findings from Global Strategy Group’s recent poll of 400 likely 2018 General Election voters in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District are as follows.

KEY SURVEY FINDINGS: •

Poll results indicate that support for Ryan has eroded in the district over the last three months. Relative to research we conducted in late August, voters’ opinions on Paul Ryan personally are more split (46% of likely 2018 voters are favorable to Ryan, 47% are unfavorable), a ten-point shift since August (50% favorable/41% unfavorable). Voters are also more split on Ryan’s job performance in office (47% approve/46% disapprove), down from +10 (52% approve/42% disapprove) in August.

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The race between Bryce and Ryan has tightened since August. In a head-to-head against Randy Bryce, Ryan maintains only a modest lead (46% Ryan/40% Bryce, compared to 46% Ryan/37% Bryce in August). When we read short positive profiles introducing voters to both Speaker Ryan and Bryce, Ryan’s lead dissolves, bringing the vote to 40% Ryan/50% Bryce), a jump in the informed vote since we tested both candidates’ profiles in August (41% Ryan/44% Bryce). - Paul Ryan is a Republican and fifth-generation Wisconsin native who serves as Speaker of the House of Representatives. A committed conservative and public servant, Ryan has spent his life advocating for real solutions that will expand opportunity for all Americans. - Randy Bryce is a US Army veteran, cancer survivor, and ironworker from Caledonia. He joined the race for Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District because he’s frustrated with DC politicians who continue to put politics and party over people and wants to put the priorities of hardworking Americans first.

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Voters in Ryan’s district oppose the Republican tax bill Ryan championed. Likely voters oppose the tax plan recently proposed by Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress by a margin of 16 points (33% support/49% oppose). Independent voters oppose the plan 54% to 23%, and voters who are currently undecided in the race for Congress oppose the tax plan 52% to 22%.

ABOUT THIS POLL Global Strategy Group conducted a survey from November 27-30, 2017 with 400 likely 2018 General Election voters in st Wisconsin’s 1 Congressional District. The results have a margin of error of +/-4.9%, and care has been taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the expected electorate are properly represented based on past voter turnout statistics. Trend data used in this memo is from a survey conducted August 22-24, 2017 with 401 likely 2018 General st Election voters in Wisconsin’s 1 Congressional District.

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