Programme Summary Wednesday 8th April

Programme Summary Tuesday 7th April Time 08.30-10.00

Time 09.15-10.15

Registration & Breakfast Snacks McCance Conservatory

10.00-12.00

12.00-13.15 13.15-14.15

McCance 3

Lunch – Lord Todd Opening of Conference Plenary Session 1: Michael Blastland - The Good, the Bad, and the Clueless – Numbers in Public Argument. McCance 1

14.15-14.30 14.30-16.00

Tea & Coffee Break – McCance Conservatory Parallel Session Parallel Parallel Session 1A: Session 1B: 1C: Statistics in General Statistical Health Statistics Methodology 1

17.00-18.30

Break Parallel Session 2A: Primary Care Public Health

McCance 1

12.00-13.15 13-15-14.45

Parallel Session 2C: Financial Statistics / Health Economics

McCance 2

McCance 3

Lunch – Lord Todd Parallel Parallel Session 3B: Session 3A: Survival Genetics, DNA and Analysis Statistics McCance 1

McCance 2

Parallel Session 3C: Time Series McCance 3

Sponsors Presentations McCance 1

McCance 1

McCance 2

McCance 3

Sponsors Wine Reception and Poster Exhibition McCance Conservatory

18.45

Depart for Civic Reception

19.00-21.00

Civic Reception and Buffet, Glasgow City Chambers

14.45-15.00 15.00-16.15

Parallel Session 2B: Statistical Methodology 2

Tea & Coffee Break – McCance Conservatory Plenary Session 2: Prof. Adrian Bowman – Statistics with a Human Face.

McCance 1

16.00-17.00

10.15-10.30 10.30-12.00

18.30 19.00-00.00 00.00-00.30

Close of Conference Bus Departs for Conference Dinner Dinner & Ceilidh – House for an Art Lover, Bellahouston Park, Glasgow Buses Depart for Glasgow City Centre

Poster Exhibition - McCance Conservatory

McCance 2

McCance Conservatory

Workshop 2: Prof. Deborah Ashby Bayesian Statistics for Beginners.

Poster Exhibition - McCance Conservatory

Workshop 1: Andrew Garrat Working with the media – or how to hug a journalist.

“Speed Dating“ Networking Session

Parallel Session 1: Tuesday 7th April 14.30-16.00

1A – Statistics in Health Chair – Claire Gordon 14.30-14.48 Zoe Lawson How consistent are we at assessing bruises? A pilot study 14.48-15.06 Laura Gray Hormone replacement therapy and the risk of strokeWhen your paper hits the headlines! 15.06-15.24 Simon White Final size inference for stochastic epidemics using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods 15.24-15.42 Nor Azah Samat Discrete-time stochastic SIR model for dengue disease transmission in human populations 15.42-16.00 Nick Masca Epidemiological analysis when the outcome is distorted by the use of treatment

1B – General Statistics Chair – Matthew Sperrin 14.30-14.48 Lesley Turnbull A breakdown of statistical analysis and techniques used in market research, with emphasis on using metrics modelling as an estimate of customer value. 14.48-15.06 Gail Hutton The application of statistical methods to collision risk modelling in aviation 15.06-15.24 Marion Procter Simulation study to investigate the influence of the missing data mechanism on common imputation methods 15.24-15.42 Muna Arephin Order restricted hypothesis testing for three-arm clinical trials 15.42-16.00 Chaitali B. Pisal Bootstrapping method: An alternative method to compare a dissolution profile data

1C – Statistical Methodology 1 Chair – Matina Rassias 14.30-14.48 Helen Thornewell Vulnerability of BIBDs to observation loss 14.48-15.06 Martin Schroeder Data visualisation and exploration with prior knowledge about grouping in the covariance structure 15.06-15.24 Denise Earle Seriation via hierarchical clustering 15.24-15.42 Ali M. Mosamam Spatial-temporal modelling of environmental data 15.42-16.00 Justice I. Odiase Empirical permutation paradigm for two-way repeated measures ANOV

Parallel Session 2: Wednesday 8th April 10.30-12.00

2A – Primary Care Public Health Chair – Simon White 10.30-10.48 Mark Kelly The impact of life course events on mental health: a longitudinal analysis of the British Household Panel Survey 10.48-11.06 Yu-Chun Peng Statistical modelling of the trajectory of comorbidity over time 11.06-11.24 Lisa Pennells Evaluating the predictive accuracy of the Framingham and SCORE risk scores for cardiovascular diseases: an individual participant meta-analysis of 294,665 participants from 61 studies. 11.24-11.42 Elaine Nicholls Defining minimum clinically important change using health status questionnaires - an example from a study of hand pain and functional difficulty in older adults

2B – Statistical Methodology 2 Chair – Helen Thornewell 10.30-10.48 Zhou Fang Lasso isotone for high dimensional additive monotone regression 10.48-11.06 Danya Facchinetti Robust methods for the analysis of multivariate data: a comparison between some robust estimators and the forward search estimator 11.06-11.24 S.Facchinetti / S.Osmetti Goodness of fit test for discrete extreme value. 11.24-11.42 N. Heidenreich/A. Schindler Bandwidth selection for kernel density estimation - What is a reasonable choice?

2C – Financial Statistics / Health Economics Chair – Martin Schroeder 10.30-10.48 Matina Rassias Stochastic differential delay equations and applications 10.48-11.06 Stuart Petherick Monofractal and multifractal models in finance 11.06-11.24 Omkar Joshi Fiscal decentralization and regional inequality in India: A panel data approach 11.24-11.42 Silvana Robone International comparison of public sector performance: The use of anchoring vignettes to adjust selfreported data 11.42-12.00 Monica Lai Use of Bayesian methods to inform health technology assessment decision-making

Parallel Session 3: Wednesday 8th April 13.15-14.45

3A – Genetics, DNA and Statistics Chair – Gail Hutton 13.15-13.33 W. John Watkins An analysis of incidental transfer of DNA from carer to child during everyday activities 13.33-13.51 Christopher Newby Determining phenotypes of patients with severe asthma using a Dirichlet process mixture 13.51-14.09 Paul Johnson Maximum likelihood estimation of error rates in genetic marker data for inferring paternity 14.09-14.27 Maarya Sharif Estimation of the time to a most recent common ancestor using Y-chromosome markers and information on surnames 14.27-14.45 Matthew Sperrin Direct effect testing: Are relationships present, and where do they come from?

3B – Survival Analysis Chair – Muna Arephin 13.15-13.33 Hannah Ensor The prognostic relevance of cytogenetic abnormalities in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in the UK. 13.33-13.51 Cara Murphy Chronic kidney disease in UK heart transplant recipients 13.51-14.09 Suzanne Lloyd Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels and cardiovascular outcomes 14.09-14.27 Martina Messow The role of vitamin D in coronary heart disease 14.27-14.45 Qing Wang Multi-state models for the analysis of lung transplant data

3C – Time Series Chair – Ali Mohammadian Mosamam 13.15-13.33 Adam Wagner Regional disease detection in Scotland 13.33-13.51 Mark Rutherford Age-period-cohort modelling using restricted cubic splines 13.51-14.09 Jean Sanderson Measuring dependence between non-stationary time series using the locally stationary wavelet model 14.09-14.27 Haeran Cho Multiscale breakpoint detection in piecewise stationary processes 14.27-14.45 Adam Butler Are seabirds becoming more or less abundant?