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How can we begin to explain the causes of the First World War? Causes as a set of events, incidents, facts are conveniently divided as we have seen into background or long-term causes and short-term causes. Long/medium-term causes Whatever the account the alliance system will be important to the description and two key dates will be central: 1879 – Dual Alliance (Germany-Austria Hungary) 1904 – Anglo-French Entente. But why is the alliance system considered to be so important? It replaced the balance of power and Congress System. It provides a central relationship to our three key themes of nationalism, imperialism and militarism. But also in the short term, how did the alliance system influence the behaviour of states(men) (e.g. Germany’s ‘blank cheque’) prevent the containment of an regional war? All long term surveys will incorporate the series of crises in the years leading up to 1914. 1905-6 – First Moroccan crisis = Franco-German confrontation strengthened the entente. 1908-9 – Balkan crisis begins with Austrian annexation of the Bosnia-Herzegovina – Russia decides not to support Serbia 1911 – 2nd Moroccan crisis another F-G confrontation 1912-13 –Balkans wars. Serbia emerges strengthened at the expense of Turkey and now turns attention to Austria. But why are these four crises important? Three major consequences i. ii. iii.

‘Never again’ mentality in Russia and Austria Rise in Balkan nationalism directly threatened Austria Moroccan crises led the French to expect British support

And yet… in all four crises a diplomatic way out was found without a war. Short Term Causes Six weeks from the assassination of 28 June 1914 and early days of August. Have any other six weeks of human history ever been subjected to such intense analysis? Luigi Albertini (Italian Historian) dedicated two massive volumes to the study of these days.

What stands out? A certain inevitability about the whole narrative that seems to take on a life of its own. Described by contemporaries through a metaphor of a river, approaching rapids and eventually a waterfall. It was a series of perfectly rational decisions in the narrow context of the decision making process itself; an apparent collective failure to predict the nature of the warfare to come. If they had only known… but this leads to a cardinal historical sin of not judging the characters on their own terms. The story… Austria holds Serbia responsible for the death of the Archduke and sends a wholly unrealistic ultimatum. Russia supports Serbia and unlike in 1908-9 is prepared to mobilise and fight. Germany offers unconditional support to Austria – The Blank Cheque At this point the alliance system and the military plans come into play – Schlieffen Plan meant whatever happened in the east, a widespread European war was likely. The invasion through Belgium proved to be the decisive factor for the British Cabinet. The rest came down to railway timetables and the lessons of the Franco-Prussian war… ‘The lesson of 1870 was burnt into the mind of every staff-officer in Europe: the nation which loses the mobilization race is likely to lose the war’. M Howard ‘Reflections on the First World War’ Studies in War and Peace (1970) Or in the words of Blackadder ‘in the end it was just all too much trouble not to have a war’. Evaluation How important was the alliance system? Whatever you argue you must write about more than the alliance system: 

If you think that the alliance system was the central cause you must be able to explain why, whilst also showing why other causes were also important.

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If you think other things were just as or more important you must be able to explain why, whilst also showing why the alliance system contributed something. It also possible in this thesis to attack the arguments that are commonly used by those who argue the alliance system was very important. RJ-N 161012