Australian Planner, Volume 47 Issue 4 2010 SPECIAL ISSUE ON CITIES AND OIL VULNERABILITY Subjects: City & Town Planning; Planning; Planning - Human Geography; Planning Techniques; Abstracts Dark clouds on the urban horizon: petroleum and Australian planning Author: Jago Dodsona This paper reviews and examines the recent evidence on petroleum depletion and liquid energy supply security as a background to the special issue on oil vulnerability. The paper charts a change in the tone of debate about an oil supply shock from possibility to probability as signalled by the growing concerns of global risk assessors. The paper notes shifting global political relations between supplier and consumer nations. The discussion concludes by positioning Australia's national energy consumption and energy policies within this rapidly changing global frame. Keywords: planning; petroleum; vulnerability; energy; strategy

Petroleum depletion scenarios for Australian cities Authors:Wally Wight; Peter Newman This paper outlines what are the likely global 'events' that peak oil could induce in our highly globalised world including supply disruption, volatility in prices and progressive price rises. All these will impact on our cities. We then pose three indicative development scenarios and assess them as a risk management exercise to examine the relative vulnerability of urban development scenarios and what pattern of development will provide the greatest opportunity for responding to this challenge. Finally a 'glimpse of the future in 2040' is presented to show how the combination of new technology and good urban planning can enable us to make better cities in the future. Keywords: scenarios; oil depletion; peak oil

The impact of rising oil prices on the transport sector Author: Peter Rickwood Oil is the dominant motorized transportation fuel used in most countries, including Australia. Many other oil-derived products and services are important to the functioning of the Australian economy. It makes sense, then, that this issue of Australian Planner focuses on the risks associated with scarce and/or expensive oil. This paper provides background information about oil consumption in Australia, and reviews the available information on price elasticities for the major oil end-uses. Based on this review, the impact of higher oil prices is assessed, and short- and longrun policy options are discussed. Reducing fuel used for private motoring, and preparing emergency adaptation plans to cope with sudden oil price spikes are identified as the major areas on which planners should focus. Keywords: peak oil; adaptation; transport economics

Peak oil and the advent of demand destruction: implications for transport and access in Australian cities Authors: Michelle Elaine Zeibotsa; David Robert Bell This article examines the implications of peak oil on the physical and money systems of the Australian economy, describing how over-reliance on private motor vehicles can expose the economy to the risks of demand destruction. Keywords: peak oil; macroeconomic stability; transport policy

Planning public transport networks in the post-petroleum era Authors: John Stonea; Paul Meesb Oil depletion scenarios suggest that public transport powered largely by electricity, together with cycling and walking, will be the mainstays of future urban mobility. This paper argues that there is great scope, in a time-scale of years rather than decades, for transport planners to increase the number and types of trips for which public transport is a convenient option. Our argument begins with a snapshot of Melbourne during the last period of intense and sustained constraints on oil supply and an overview of the performance of various transport modes in the three decades from 1976 to 2006. The decline of public transport since 1950 occurred at a faster rate than changes in density and can be reversed without the need for widespread recreation of the urban form. The key to making these changes lies in the approach to public transport planning used in successful European and North American cities: service-based network planning. This model offers hope for greater public transport use in Australian cities, and is outlined in the central part of the article. We conclude with some comments on the forms of transport governance required to deliver 'networked' public transport services. Keywords: public transport planning; density; networks

Rethinking oil depletion: what role can cycling really play in dispersed cities? Authors: Matthew Ian Burkea; Jennifer Bonhamb What is the role of cycling in dispersed cities under Peak Oil? This research sought to appraise the bicycle's mitigating potential in an oil crisis, and to identify the specific ways planners may respond to maximise these effects. An overview of cycling in dispersed cities, focused on US and Australian cities, highlights low bicycle mode shares and low participation rates for women, children and seniors at present. Yet cycling can flourish in suburban settings, with low-density, outer-suburban communities in many European cities having very high bicycle mode shares, and strong participation across all demographic groups. Under a variety of Peak Oil scenarios, the bicycle is shown to play specific roles in supplying local mobility and access to and from mass public transport for longer distance trips. In conjunction with minor urban restructuring and public transport networking, many suburban areas could still function without reliance on large quantities of oil for access and mobility. Planning priorities include cycle network planning, ensuring current infrastructures can meet demand, links to public transport and end-of-trip facilities, and sociocultural research into suburban bicycle sub-markets to better inform targeted behaviour change interventions. Keywords: bicycles; oil vulnerability; suburbs

The hope for oil crisis: children, oil vulnerability and (in)dependent mobility Authors: Scott Sharpea; Paul Trantera Oil vulnerability is likely to impact upon one group of citizens - children - in critical ways, since children have borne a special brunt of a car-dependent culture. Children's freedom to explore the city has been curtailed, in large part because of the perceived risks of traffic and 'stranger danger'. Children are over-represented in road fatalities involving cars and pedestrians and cyclists. Children are also subject to chronic conditions associated with inactivity such as obesity. In order to address this situation, advocates of child-friendly cities have suggested measures to increase children's independent mobility (CIM) and encourage children's active transport. In this paper, we argue that there is a conflation of CIM and children's active transport, which perpetuates the separation of children from adults. To take both children's rights and desires seriously, as well as to take into account the concerns of parents, the active transport needs of both groups must be addressed simultaneously. One cost effective and immediately available strategy is to reduce car speeds in order to minimise the damage to all users of active transport. A holistic understanding of urban transport and children shows that reducing speeds produces the co-benefits of increased health and reduced reliance on oil. Keywords: children's independent mobility; children's active transport; oil vulnerability

Emerging Australian planning practice and oil vulnerability responses Authors: Jago Dodsona; Neil Sipea Australia's cities, and in particular the suburban areas, are car dependent and vulnerable to higher oil prices. This paper examines the policy and planning responses to this emerging problem. It does this by reviewing relevant plans and policies at the local, regional/metro, state and national levels. The analysis suggests that there are a number of contradictions in these plans and policies. There appears to be a vertical disconnection between national policy development and that occurring at the local and metropolitan levels. In addition there is a horizontal disconnection/contradiction between oil vulnerability mitigation and other policy areas, such as transport. At present, policy and planning prescriptions are inadequate to meet the challenges of an oil constrained future. Keywords: planning practice; oil vulnerability; Australia

Mind the governance gap: oil vulnerability and urban resilience in Australian cities Authors: Wendy Elizabeth Steelea; Brendan Gleesonb Australian cities currently face high levels of oil vulnerability, which is often unevenly distributed, particularly within the middle and outer suburbs of the greater metropolitan areas (Dodson and Sipe, 2006). New urban policies and planning practices are needed to avoid, remedy or mitigate the impacts of oil price rises and create urban resilience (Newman et al. 2009). Whilst the lack of scholarship around oil vulnerability is slowly beginning to be addressed within the Australian urban planning context, an emphasis on the links between urban governance and urban resilience is still largely marginalised despite its acknowledged central role in the quest of urban resilience. Our main point of departure is the re-conceptualisation of

oil vulnerability as a planning and governance deficit within Australian cities. We identify a number of gaps that combine to inhibit the capacity for the development of urban resilience in the face of oil vulnerability and depletion scenarios. Keywords: oil vulnerability; governance; Australian cities