l Equity
Research l
Singapore l Real Estate
16 June 2014
ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192 Mkt cap (mn) REITs CapitaMall Trust Ascendas REIT CapitaCommercial Trust Suntec REIT Keppel REIT Mapletree Logistics Trust Mapletree Commercial Trust Mapletree Industrial Trust Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust Ascott Residence Trust Starhill Global REIT Frasers Centrepoint Trust CDL Hospitality Trusts Far East Hospitality Trust CapitaRetail China Trust OUE Hospitality Trust Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust Cambridge Industrial Trust Cache Logistics Trust Frasers Commercial Trust AIMS-AMP Capital Industrial REIT Ascendas Hospitality Trust Religare Health Trust Ascendas India Trust OUE Commercial REIT Viva Industrial Trust Fortune REIT Developers and fund managers CapitaLand City Developments Keppel Land OUE ARA Asset Management
Price as of 2014E 13-Jun-14 DPU yield Price target
Rating
Up/ Down to PT
CT SP AREIT SP CCT SP SUN SP KREIT SP MLT SP MCT SP MINT SP MAGIC SP ART SP SGREIT SP FCT SP CDREIT SP FEHT SP CRCT SP OUEHT SP LMRT SP CREIT SP CACHE SP FCOT SP AAREIT SP ASCHT SP RHT SP AIT SP OUECT SP VIT SP FRT SP
SGD 6,869 SGD 5,502 SGD 4,796 SGD 4,501 SGD 3,557 SGD 2,850 SGD 2,741 SGD 2,422 SGD 2,334 SGD 1,872 SGD 1,755 SGD 1,703 SGD 1,671 SGD 1,538 SGD 1,224 SGD 1,165 SGD 1,008 SGD 954 SGD 942 SGD 910 SGD 891 SGD 832 SGD 732 SGD 726 SGD 694 SGD 476 HKD 12,597
SGD 1.99 SGD 2.29 SGD 1.66 SGD 1.81 SGD 1.27 SGD 1.16 SGD 1.31 SGD 1.42 SGD 0.87 SGD 1.23 SGD 0.82 SGD 1.87 SGD 1.71 SGD 0.87 SGD 1.50 SGD 0.89 SGD 0.41 SGD 0.76 SGD 1.21 SGD 1.35 SGD 1.44 SGD 0.75 SGD 0.93 SGD 0.79 SGD 0.80 SGD 0.80 HKD 6.75
5.4% 6.6% 5.2% 5.2% 6.4% 6.4% 5.9% 6.7% 7.6% 6.6% 5.9% 5.9% 6.5% 6.4% 6.7% 7.9% 7.4% 6.9% 7.2% 6.0% 7.3% 7.9% 7.8% 6.5% 7.1% 8.9% 6.0%
SGD 1.97 SGD 2.04 SGD 1.77 SGD 2.06 SGD 1.41 SGD 1.11 SGD 1.33 SGD 1.44 SGD 1.02 SGD 1.19 SGD 0.88 SGD 1.74 SGD 1.98 SGD 0.77 SGD 1.65 SGD 0.95 SGD 0.41 SGD 0.69 SGD 1.06 SGD 1.33 SGD 1.39 SGD 0.71 SGD 0.82 SGD 0.64 SGD 0.92 SGD 0.69 HKD 7.50
UP UP OP OP OP UP IL UP OP UP OP UP OP UP OP OP IL UP UP IL IL IL OP UP OP UP OP
-0.8% -10.9% 6.9% 14.1% 11.0% -4.3% 1.5% 1.4% 17.9% -2.9% 8.0% -6.7% 15.8% -11.5% 10.4% 7.3% 0.0% -9.2% -12.4% -1.5% -3.1% -5.3% -11.4% -19.0% 15.0% -13.8% 11.1%
CAPL SP CIT SP KPLD SP OUE SP ARA SP
SGD 13,754 SGD 9,529 SGD 5,302 SGD 2,184 SGD 1,492
SGD 3.23 SGD 10.48 SGD 3.43 SGD 2.40 SGD 1.77
2.9% 1.0% 2.6% 1.2% 3.0%
SGD 3.52 SGD 9.93 SGD 3.63 SGD 2.53 SGD 2.10
IL UP IL IL OP
9.0% -5.2% 5.8% 5.4% 19.0%
NAV
P/NAV
SGD 1.71 SGD 1.98 SGD 1.66 SGD 2.06 SGD 1.37 SGD 0.95 SGD 1.16 SGD 1.20 SGD 1.06 SGD 1.36 SGD 0.92 SGD 1.78 SGD 1.62 SGD 0.98 SGD 1.45 SGD 0.91 SGD 0.45 SGD 0.69 SGD 0.98 SGD 1.55 SGD 1.47 SGD 0.77 SGD 0.89 SGD 0.62 SGD 1.06 SGD 0.76 HKD 10.24 RNAV SGD 5.03 SGD 14.18 SGD 5.18 SGD 4.21 SGD 2.00
1.16x 1.16x 1.00x 0.88x 0.93x 1.22x 1.13x 1.18x 0.82x 0.90x 0.89x 1.05x 1.06x 0.89x 1.03x 0.97x 0.91x 1.10x 1.23x 0.87x 0.98x 0.97x 1.04x 1.27x 0.75x 1.06x 0.66x P/RNAV 0.64x 0.74x 0.66x 0.57x 0.88x
Source: Companies, Standard Chartered Research estimates
In the past week, the China SE Shang Property Index was the best-performing Asia Pacific property index (+0.9%), while the Nikkei 500 Real Estate Index was the worst (-0.8%). YTD, the S&P/ASX 200 Real Estate Index has been the strongest (+9.1%), while the Nikkei 500 Real Estate Index has been the weakest (-15.0%). SREITs are trading at an average 2014E DPU yield of 6.2% (381bps above the Singapore 10Y government bond yield). We expect SREITs to provide an average 2014-16 DPU CAGR of 3.2%, and c.2.0% potential upside to our PTs. Lower land supply supportive of prospects for office and hotel SREITs: There are no confirmed CBD office and upscale hotel sites in the 2H14 Government Land Sales programme. This could result in low supply after 2016, and present upside risks to Grade A office rents and hotel room rates. Confirmed residential land supply for 2H14 fell 35% y/y, corroborating our view that Singapore developers’ earnings from home sales could decline by 20% CAGR in 2016-20E. We remain bullish on office SREITs and bearish on residential developers. Slower than expected global economic growth could impact tourist arrivals: SCB economists now expect global economic growth of 3.2% in 2014 (previously 3.4%). There could be downside risks to our 2014 tourist arrivals and hotel RevPar estimates. But the gap between the luxury and upscale hotel RevPar has widened to 1.7x from 1.3x in December 2012, and this could help upscale rates rise over the next two years. As we believe CDREIT and OUEHT have not priced in any improvement in RevPar from here, we maintain our Outperform ratings. Our ACT call: Buy CCT, SUN and KREIT; Sell AREIT, MINT and MLT.
Regina Lim
Meenal Kumar
Kai Yip
Chaw Meng Tan
+65 6596 8502 Equity Research Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore Branch
+65 6596 8507 Equity Research Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore Branch
+65 6596 8506 Equity Research Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore Branch
+65 6596 4440 Equity Research Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore Branch
Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix All rights reserved. Standard Chartered Bank 2014
http://research.standardchartered.com
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
Key news this week Lower land supply supportive of prospects for office and hotel SREITs: The Government announced the 2H14 Land Sales programme on 10 June 2014. Only one office site was placed on the Confirmed List. We estimate that the site could provide c.600,000sf NLA of office space at Paya Lebar, outside the CBD. While there are two office sites in the reserve list, we think developers are unlikely to apply for these as the locations are not compelling. This implies that office supply in the CBD will be low at 1.2msf p.a. in 2016-19E and Grade A rents could stay elevated even after 2016. No hotel sites were included in the 2014 GLS programme. As no large hotel sites have been sold via the GLS since 2012, we expect upscale hotel supply to decline after 2015. The confirmed residential land supply for 2H14 is 15% lower h/h and 35% lower y/y. For 2014, confirmed residential land supply of 8,540 units is the lowest in five years and 50% lower than the 16,240 units released in 2011. This confirms our view that Singapore residential developers would have less work going forward and their earnings could potentially fall at a 20% CAGR from 2016-20. Singapore developers derived 53-79% of their earnings from Singapore in 2010-13. Unless they expand rapidly out of Singapore in 2014-16, earnings growth would stagnate. We reiterate our Outperform ratings for office landlords and upscale hotel SREITs, and remain bearish on residential developers. (Lower land supply supportive of prospects for office and hotel SREITs, 10 June 2014) Figure 1: Office sites on Confirmed and Reserve List in the GLS programme 4.0
Confirmed
Figure 2: Residential land on Confirmed and Reserve Lists in the GLS programme 16,000
Reserve
Confirmed
Reserve
14,000 12,000 10,000 Units
Office NLA (msf)
3.0
2.0
8,000 6,000 4,000
1.0
2,000 0 2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0.0
Source: Urban Redevelopment Authority, Standard Chartered Research
1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 1H 2H 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Urban Redevelopment Authority, Standard Chartered Research
Slower global economic growth could impact Singapore tourist arrivals: Standard Chartered economists now expect global economic growth of 3.2% in 2014 (from 3.4%), and the economies for Singapore’s source countries for tourist arrivals to grow 5% y/y (from 8% previously). As a result, there could be downside risks to our forecast for visitor arrivals and hotel RevPar to rise 8% and 3%, respectively, in 2014. In 1Q14, visitor arrivals was flat y/y despite an airshow in February, partially due to a 19.5% y/y decline in Chinese visitors. Year-to-date, upscale hotel RevPar rose 2% y/y: However, data from the Singapore Tourism Board showed that April hotel RevPar rose 1.9% y/y to SGD 218 per night on slightly lower occupancy of 83% (-1.6ppt y/y). This was led by the luxury segment, which rose 10.1% y/y, while the upscale segment saw 3.1% y/y growth. RevPar for the mid-tier segment fell 4.4% y/y. This is in line with our expectations that the upscale segment could outperform mid-tier hotels after a steeper decline in 2013. Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 16 June 2014
2
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
Further, the gap between the luxury and upscale segments has risen to 1.7x from 1.3x in Dec 2012. This could potentially help upscale rates move up over the next two years. As we believe that stock prices of upscale hotel SREITs, CDREIT and OUEHT, have not factored in any improvement in room rates from current levels, we maintain our Outperform ratings. Figure 3: Singapore hotels RevPar 450
Luxury
Upscale
Mid-tier
Economy
400 350
SGD/day
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
YTD 2014
Source: Singapore Tourism Board, Standard Chartered Research
Straits Trading and related parties now control 6.1% of SUN: According to disclosures by Straits Trading, we estimate the company bought 81.2mn units (3.3% of total units) of SUN in May. In the second week of June, disclosures by SUN showed that Raffles Investments, an entity controlled by the Tan family who is the majority owner of Straits Trading, has increased its deemed stake in SUN to 6.1%. Straits Trading is the largest shareholder (20.1%) of ARA Asset Management, which manages SUN. We think Straits Trading could be increasing its stake in SUN as it expects office rents to continue to rise, or to further entrench its position as the REIT manager. On average, SREITs’ managers own about 33% of the SREITs they manage. SUN’s one month average daily trading volume has reached SGD 28.0mn, making it the most liquid SREIT by far over the past few weeks. SUN rose 19% YTD, outperforming office SREITs and the SREIT sector by 10% and 13%, respectively, in spite of a SGD 350mn equity placement in March 2014. We think SUN’s net asset value could be undervalued, given the REIT’s strata-titled office units in Suntec City were valued at c.SGD 2,100psf as of December 2013. Strata office units at Suntec City have transacted between SGD 2,100psf and SGD 3,000psf in the past two years, with the 12-month average transaction price at SGD 2,600psf. We estimate SUN’s RNAV to be c.SGD 2.33/unit, assuming a SGD 2,600psf valuation for the strata-titled office units. This could imply SUN is trading at a 21% discount to RNAV. We maintain our Outperform rating on SUN with a price target of SGD 2.06.
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 16 June 2014
3
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
Figure 4: Suntec City office transaction prices
Figure 5: SUN RNAV estimates
3,200 3,000
SGDpsf
2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
2,000
Source: Realis, Standard Chartered Research
Our RNAV estimates % of total assets 1,874 20% 3,375 36% 398 4% 1,200 13% 1,640 17% 394 4% 527 6% 9,408 100% 3,462 141 5,805 2,493 2.33
Suntec retail Suntec office Park Mall One Raffles Quay MBFC Phase 1 Convention (60.8%) Other assets Total assets Total liabilities Minorities RNAV (SGD mn) No of units RNAV (SGD/unit) Source: Standard Chartered Research estimates
SREIT block trades: In the past two weeks, we saw over SGD 200mn in three SREITs change hands without any decline in prices. Straits Trading disclosed it had disposed of over 50mn units of FEHT of which about 32mn units were sold to Aberdeen Asset Management and Far East Organisation on 2 June 2014. In turn, Straits Trading bought the bulk of the 82m units of SUN that was sold on 28 May 2014. On 10 June 2014, over 21m units of RHT changed hands. While these block trades created volumes that are over 10 times the average daily trading volume for these stocks, prices held up, rising 0-1%. We continue to expect buying interest in SREITs so long as global growth expectations remain weak and if investors think interest rates could rise later than expected. We like office SREITs CCT, SUN and KREIT, and see value in MAGIC, CRCT and CDREIT. Figure 6: SREIT block trades in the last fortnight
REIT
28-May SUN
81.9
1.83
149.8
14.1
0.6% Straits Trading bought 34mn units
2-Jun
49.9
0.85
42.4
0.8
0.0% Straits Trading sold 20mn units to Aberdeen and 12mn units to Far East Organisation.
21.6
0.91
19.7
1.1
0.6%
Date
FEHT
10-Jun RHT
Price (SGD)SGD mn
ADTV Price (SGD change mn) that day Block
Units (mn)
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Prime residential prices could fall more as extension fines kick in: Property developers could potentially be paying extension fees of over SGD 80mn if they do not sell their private residential inventory by the end of the year, according to property consultant OrangeTee Research. Under the Residential Property Act, all developers with non-Singaporean shareholders need to obtain Qualifying Certificates (QC) for their projects and are required to sell all units in each project within seven years of acquisition of the development site. To extend this period, developers have to pay extension fees of 8/16/24% of land purchase price for extensions of 1/2/3 years, prorated by the proportion of unsold units. Since 2012, developers have already paid up to SGD 55.1mn collectively for unsold units, according to OrangeTee. OrangeTee believes at least 24 residential projects, mainly in the high-end segment, will fall into this category. The property cooling measures introduced since 2010 have worked to slow down demand for residential properties, particularly with the cap on borrowing Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 16 June 2014
4
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
limits under the total debt servicing ratio, and developer sales volume is down 65% y/y in 4M14. During the 2009 recession, the Singapore government allowed a twoyear extension for developers to sell projects post-completion. If the government does not grant exemptions or extensions to developers this year, the risk is that prime residential prices fall more than expected as developers reduce prices to sell units expediently to avoid fines. We estimate GuocoLand (GUOL SP, NR), Wing Tai (WINGT SP, NR), Ho Bee Land (HOBEE SP, NR), OUE and CIT to have the highest exposure to prime residential property, as a proportion of market cap.
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 16 June 2014
5
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
Key charts Singapore REITs Figure 7: Number of SREITs
Figure 8: Market cap as of 31 March 2014
40
70
35
60
30
50 SGD bn
25 20 15
40 30
10
20
5
10
0
0 1Q03
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2014 Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
4Q05
3Q08
2Q11
1Q14
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Figure 9: Total assets as of 31 March 2014 110,000
Total assets
40
No of REITs (RHS)
100,000
35
80,000
30
70,000
25
60,000
20
50,000 40,000
15
30,000
10
20,000
No. of REITs
SGD mn
90,000
5
10,000
0 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14
0
Above data as of 31 March 2014 where available Source: Bloomberg, Companies, Standard Chartered Research
Figure 10: REIT Index versus the equity market FSSTI
350
FSTREI
Rebased to 100
300 250 200 150 100 50 Sep-02
May-04
Jan-06
Sep-07
May-09
Jan-11
Oct-12
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 16 June 2014
6
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
Figure 11: SREITs – Distribution yield and spread 16
Market weighted average SREIT DPU yield
SG 10-yr Govt Bond
Spread
%
12
8
4
0 Jul-02
Mar-04
Dec-05
Aug-07
May-09
Jan-11
Sep-12
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Figure 12: Singapore swap rates SG 10-yr Govt Bond
5
2-yr SOR
5-yr SOR
4
%
3 2 1 0 Jul-02
Apr-04
Dec-05
Aug-07
May-09
Jan-11
Sep-12
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Figure 13: SREITs – Distribution yield, cost of debt and cost of capital 16
Market weighted average SREIT DPU yield
Cost of debt
Cost of capital
%
12
8
4
0 Jul-02
Mar-04
Dec-05
Aug-07
May-09
Jan-11
Sep-12
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 16 June 2014
7
PREIT * AIT CACHE MLT FIRT * MINT CT AREIT SPHREIT * MCT CRT * CREIT VIT CDREIT FCT RHT CRCT SREIT avg CCT SSREIT * SBREIT * AAREIT ASCHT OUEHT KREIT LMRT ART FEHT SGREIT SUN FCOT MAGIC SZREIT * OUECT PCRT FRT FORT * IPIT *
16 June 2014
20
0
-60
-62 -62
40 53
60
27 23 22 21 18 16 16 14 13 11 10 6 6 5 4 3 3
VIT CRT * ASCHT OUEHT RHT SBREIT * MAGIC LMRT AAREIT SSREIT * CACHE OUECT FIRT * CREIT CRCT MINT ART AREIT CDREIT AIT KREIT FEHT MLT FRT FCOT MCT FCT SGREIT CT SUN CCT SPHREIT * PREIT *
%
7.9 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.8
8.9 8.9
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
-20
-40
0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -7 -9 -10 -11 -11 -12 -13 -18 -20 -25 -26 -34
% CRT * KREIT OUECT VIT MCT MAGIC SZREIT * FCOT SUN SSREIT * ART ASCHT CT PREIT * MINT FORT * MLT FRT OUEHT FIRT * CRCT AAREIT FEHT CCT AREIT CDREIT CREIT SGREIT CACHE SBREIT * PCRT FCT SPHREIT * LMRT IPIT * AIT RHT
%
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
Figure 14: Gearing % (total debt/total assets) 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Wtd average: 33.2
*Not under our coverage. Company data as of 31 March 2014 where available Source: Companies, Standard Chartered Research
Figure 15: 2014E DPU yield
Wtd average: 6.21
*Not under our coverage Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Figure 16: SREITs – Premium/discount to NAV
-80
*Not under our coverage. Company data as of 31 March 2014 where available Source: Companies, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited.
8
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
Figure 17: 2014E DPU yield vs. 2014-16E DPU CAGR 9%
VIT ASCHT
2014E DPU yield
8%
RHT
OUEHT
MAGIC
7% MLT
FEHT
FRT
6%
FCT CT
5% -3.0%
CDREIT CREIT
ART
-1.0%
MCT
1.0%
LMRT
CACHE
AAREIT
KREIT
OUECT
CRCT AIT FCOT
SGREIT SUN
CCT 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 2014-16E DPU CAGR
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Singapore developers Figure 18: Premium/discount to historical P/NAV 10%
3%
0% -4%
-10% -20%
-18% -24%
-30%
-26% -30%
-40%
-34% -38%
-42%
-43%
OUE *
KPLD *
-50% GLP
UOL
GUOL
CIT *
CAPL *
HOBEE
WINGT
ARA *
*Under our coverage Historical 10Y mean Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Figure 19: CAPL – Price/NAV (+/- 1SD) 3.0 2.5
x
2.0
+1 Std dev: 1.7
1.5 Ave: 1.1 1.0
0.84 -1 Std dev: 0.6
0.5 0.0 Mar-01
Feb-03
Jan-05
Nov-06
Oct-08
Aug-10
Jul-12
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 16 June 2014
9
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
Figure 20: KPLD – Price/NAV (+/- 1SD) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 x
+1 Std dev: 2.2
2.0 Ave: 1.3
1.5
0.75
1.0 -1 Std dev: 0.5
0.5 0.0 Jan-02
Oct-03
Jul-05
May-07
Feb-09
Nov-10
Aug-12
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Figure 21: CIT – Price/NAV (+/- 1SD) 3.5 3.0 2.5
+1 Std dev: 2.2
2.0 x
Ave: 1.6 1.5
1.27 -1 Std dev: 1.0
1.0 0.5 0.0 Jun-02
Mar-04
Nov-05
Aug-07
Apr-09
Jan-11
Sep-12
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Figure 22: OUE – Price/NAV (+/- 1SD) 2.0 1.8 1.5 x
+1 Std dev: 1.3 1.3 Ave: 1.0 1.0 -1 Std dev: 0.7
0.8 0.5 Jun-02
0.59 Mar-04
Nov-05
Aug-07
Apr-09
Jan-11
Sep-12
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 16 June 2014
10
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
Figure 23: Singapore developers – Gearing (net debt/total equity) 154.5%
160%
120%
80% 48.8% 48.3%
40.5%
40%
37.0%
36.6%
31.1%
27.0%
23.6%
20.2% 11.1%
0% GUOL
YLLG
FCL
KPLD * CAPL *
OUE * HOBEE
CIT *
UOL
WINGT
GLP
*Under our coverage Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Figure 24: Singapore developers – 2014E EV/EBITDA vs. 2014-16E EBITDA CAGR 35 OUE *
EV/EBITDA (X)
30 HOBEE
25
GLP
20 CAPL *
UOL 15 FCL 10 5 -10%
KPLD * CIT * WINGT YLLG
-5%
0%
5% 10% 2014-16E EBITDA CAGR
15%
20%
25%
*Under our coverage. Data for other stocks are Bloomberg consensus estimates Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Figure 25: CAPL – Price/RNAV (+/- 1SD) 30% 10% -10%
+1 Std dev: -3.2% Ave: -20.8%
-30%
-1 Std dev: -38.3%
-35.8%
-50% -70% Jan-00
Jan-02
Feb-04
Mar-06
Apr-08
Apr-10
May-12
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 16 June 2014
11
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
Figure 26: KPLD – Price/RNAV (+/- 1SD) 60% 40% 20% +1 Std dev: -0.7%
0% -20%
Ave: -21.5%
-40%
-33.8%
-1 Std dev: -42.3%
-60% -80% Jan-00
Jan-02
Feb-04
Mar-06
Apr-08
Apr-10
May-12
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Figure 27: CIT – Price/RNAV (+/- 1SD) 60% 40% 20% +1 Std dev: 5.5% 0% Ave: -12.2% -26.1%
-20% -1 Std dev: -30.0%
-40% -60% Jan-00
Jan-02
Feb-04
Mar-06
Apr-08
Apr-10
May-12
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Figure 28: OUE – Price/RNAV (+/- 1SD) 0% -10% -20% +1 Std dev: -29.8%
-30% Ave: -39.8%
-40% -50%
-43.0%
-1 Std dev: -49.9%
-60% -70% Aug-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
May-13
Nov-13
Jun-14
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 16 June 2014
12
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
Our coverage: By geography Figure 29: Singapore real estate stocks under our coverage % SREITs CapitaMall Trust Ascendas REIT CapitaCommercial Trust Suntec REIT Keppel REIT Mapletree Logistics Trust Mapletree Commercial Trust Mapletree Industrial Trust Mapletree Greater China Commercial trust Ascott Residence Trust Starhill Global REIT CDL Hospitality Trusts Frasers Centrepoint Trust Far East Hospitality Trust OUE Hospitality Trust CapitaRetail China Trust Lippo Malls Indo Retail Trust Cambridge Industrial Trust Cache Logistics Trust Frasers Commercial Trust AIMS-AMP Cap Ind REIT Ascendas Hospitality Trust OUE Commercial REIT Ascendas India Trust Religare Health Trust Perennial China Retail Trust Viva Industrial Trust Fortune REIT Developers CapitaLand City Developments Keppel Land OUE
SG others SG China Other SG SG (hospitality/ Overseas resi resi resi office retail industrial) commercial Others Total 12
88
76 63 81
8 32
24
76
99 16
1 4 19
44
56
100 100 17 12
49
83 39
80
20
100 31
100 69 100 100 100 98
52
2 48
84 23 71
16 77 29 100 100 100
100 100 10 31 16 10
15 2 24
4 10
7 31 35 54
14 10
3 7
10
20
43 4 15
4 15 6
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Figures have been rounded off to the nearest whole number Source: Companies, Standard Chartered Research
Figure 30: Primary and secondary issuances by SREITs in the past 12 months Date 10-Jun-13 24-Jul-13 25-Jul-13 1-Aug-13 6-Aug-13 16-Aug-13 24-Sep-13 4-Nov-13 21-Nov-13 29-Nov-13 12-Dec-13 27-Jan-14 21-Mar-14 27-Mar-14 9-Apr-14 11-Jun-14 Total
REIT ASCHT SPHREIT OUEHT FEHT KREIT SBREIT SSREIT VIT CRCT LMRT ART OUECT AAREIT SUN ASCHT FCT
Issue type Placement/PO IPO IPO Private placement Private placement IPO Private placement IPO Preferential offering Private placement Rights issue IPO Rights issue Private placement Private placement Private placement
Amount raised (SGD mn) 200 554 600 138 120 457 40 70 59 100 254 346 100 350 50 162 3,600
Issue price (SGD) 0.88 0.90 0.88 0.93 1.26 0.78 1.00 0.78 1.30 0.41 1.00 0.80 1.08 1.61 0.68 1.84
Source: Companies, Standard Chartered Research
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 16 June 2014
13
Name Retail REITs CapitaMall Trust Mapletree Commercial Trust Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust Fortune REIT Starhill Global REIT Frasers Centrepoint Trust SPH REIT * CapitaRetail China Trust Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust Croesus Retail Trust * Perennial China Retail Trust Total/Weighted average Office REITs Suntec REIT CapitaCommercial Trust Keppel REIT Frasers Commercial Trust OUE Commercial REIT Forterra Trust * Total/Weighted average Industrial REITs Ascendas REIT Mapletree Logistics Trust Mapletree Industrial Trust Cambridge Industrial Trust Cache Logistics Trust AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT * Ascendas India Trust Soilbuild Business Space REIT * Viva Industrial Trust Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust * Total/Weighted average Hospitality REITs CDL Hospitality Trusts Ascott Residence Trust Far East Hospitality Trust OUE Hospitality Trust Ascendas Hospitality Trust Saizen REIT * Total/Weighted average Healthcare REITs Parkway Life REIT * First REIT * Religare Health Trust Total/Weighted average Overall total/mkt cap weighted average
13-Jun-14 price (SGD/unit)
Mkt cap (SGD mn)
Free float (%)
Free float (SGD mn)
1M ADTV (SGD mn)
Listing date
% change 1W
% change 3M
% change 12M
% change YTD
1.99 1.31 0.87 HKD 6.75 0.82 1.87 1.03 1.50 0.41 0.96 0.54
6,869 2,741 2,334 2,033 1,755 1,703 2,586 1,224 1,008 413 619 23,286
71.2% 60.6% 65.0% 71.0% 63.6% 58.7% 30.1% 62.9% 69.4% 92.3% 43.5% 62.4%
4,893 1,662 1,517 1,443 1,117 1,000 778 770 700 381 269 14,530
17.15 3.62 2.81 0.37 2.68 2.81 1.39 0.93 0.89 0.71 0.95 6.49
Jul-02 Apr-11 Mar-13 Aug-03 Sep-05 Jul-06 Jul-13 Dec-06 Nov-07 May-13 Jun-11
-1.2% 1.9% -0.6% 1.0% -1.8% 0.5% 0.0% -1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% -0.2%
4.7% 9.2% 1.8% 14.8% 4.5% 7.8% 5.1% 10.7% 2.5% 9.7% -0.9% 6.2%
-2.2% 7.8% -9.9% -6.0% -6.9% -5.8% NA 0.5% -14.6% -2.0% -3.6% -3.3%
4.2% 10.1% 3.0% 8.2% 3.8% 6.0% 5.1% 12.4% -1.2% 8.5% 1.9% 5.5%
SUN SP CCT SP KREIT SP FCOT SP OUECT SP FORT SP
1.81 1.66 1.27 1.35 0.80 1.67
4,501 4,796 3,557 910 694 424 14,882
93.7% 64.6% 55.5% 72.3% 52.1% 73.0% 71.4%
4,219 3,097 1,974 658 362 310 10,619
26.42 14.36 5.65 1.80 0.43 0.19 14.10
Dec-04 May-04 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jan-14 Jun-10
-1.9% 0.0% -0.4% -1.1% 0.6% -1.8% -0.8%
7.4% 12.2% 10.0% 8.0% 1.3% -7.2% 8.9%
11.4% 9.2% -8.3% -2.9% NA -8.2% 4.2%
17.2% 14.1% 7.2% 6.3% 0.0% -23.0% 11.2%
AREIT SP MLT SP MINT SP CREIT SP CACHE SP AAREIT SP SSREIT SP AIT SP SBREIT SP VIT SP IPIT SP
2.29 1.16 1.42 0.76 1.21 1.44 1.06 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.13
5,502 2,850 2,422 954 942 891 734 726 643 476 478 16,619
82.9% 58.8% 68.8% 94.4% 92.1% 85.2% 89.9% 76.5% 73.0% 15.2% 13.9% 73.7%
4,559 1,674 1,666 901 867 760 660 556 469 72 67 12,252
21.56 3.91 4.04 1.56 0.88 0.72 0.84 0.70 1.28 0.15 0.05 8.70
Nov-02 Jul-05 Oct-10 Jul-06 Apr-10 Apr-07 Nov-10 Aug-07 Aug-13 Nov-13 Jun-08
-2.6% 0.0% -1.7% -1.9% -0.8% -0.3% -0.5% -0.6% 1.3% 0.6% -6.6% -1.4%
7.5% 13.2% 7.2% 6.3% 9.0% 9.5% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 6.7% 8.0%
-0.9% 3.6% 4.4% 7.0% -2.4% -7.2% -6.6% 8.2% NA NA 17.4% 1.5%
4.1% 10.0% 6.4% 10.1% 8.5% 3.9% -2.3% 16.2% 3.2% 3.2% -11.1% 5.8%
CDREIT SP ART SP FEHT SP OUEHT SP ASCHT SP SZREIT SP
1.71 1.23 0.87 0.89 0.75 0.94
1,671 1,872 1,538 1,165 832 265 7,344
64.3% 54.4% 46.8% 56.5% 73.6% 94.0% 59.0%
1,075 1,018 720 658 613 249 4,333
3.05 1.98 3.01 1.94 0.52 0.27 2.21
Jul-06 Mar-06 Aug-12 Jul-13 Jul-12 Nov-07
-1.4% -0.8% -0.6% 0.6% 0.0% -2.6% -0.7%
4.9% 3.8% 8.1% 5.4% 2.7% 5.6% 5.1%
-5.3% -3.6% -11.2% NA -12.3% 5.6% -6.7%
4.3% 1.7% 3.6% 1.1% 4.2% 1.1% 2.8%
PREIT SP FIRT SP RHT SP
2.45 1.17 0.93
1,482 844 732 3,058 65,189
57.3% 65.2% 71.6% 62.9% 67.0%
850 550 524 1,924 43,658
0.57 0.29 3.40 1.17 8.06
Aug-07 Dec-06 Oct-12
2.1% 0.0% 3.4% 1.8% -0.6%
5.2% 8.8% 9.5% 7.2% 7.2%
0.4% -1.3% 8.8% 2.0% -0.3%
4.3% 10.4% 19.4% 9.6% 6.8%
Ticker CT SP MCT SP MAGIC SP FRT SP SGREIT SP FCT SP SPHREIT SP CRCT SP LMRT SP CRT SP PCRT SP
14
*Not under our coverage. Data for these stocks are Bloomberg consensus estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
16 June 2014
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited.
Figure 31: Singapore-listed REITs – Free float and performance
Name Retail REITs CapitaMall Trust Mapletree Commercial Trust Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust Fortune REIT (HKD) Starhill Global REIT Frasers Centrepoint Trust SPH REIT * CapitaRetail China Trust Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust Croesus Retail Trust * Perennial China Retail Trust Total/Weighted average Office REITs Suntec REIT CapitaCommercial Trust Keppel REIT Frasers Commercial Trust OUE Commercial REIT Forterra Trust * Total/Weighted average Industrial REITs Ascendas REIT Mapletree Logistics Trust Mapletree Industrial Trust Cambridge Industrial Trust Cache Logistics Trust AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT * Ascendas India Trust Soilbuild Business Space REIT * Viva Industrial Trust Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust * Total/Weighted average Hospitality REITs CDL Hospitality Trusts Ascott Residence Trust Far East Hospitality Trust OUE Hospitality Trust Ascendas Hospitality Trust Saizen REIT * Total/Weighted average Healthcare REITs Parkway Life REIT * First REIT * Religare Health Trust Total/Weighted average Overall total/mkt cap weighted average
13-Jun-14 price (SGD/unit)
Our price target (SGD) Our rating
1.99 1.31 0.87 HKD 6.75 0.82 1.87 1.03 1.50 0.41 0.96 0.54
1.97 1.33 1.02 HKD 7.50 0.88 1.74 NA 1.65 0.41 NA NA
1.81 1.66 1.27 1.35 0.80 1.67
Upside / 2014E 2016E (downside) DPU yield DPU yield
2014-16E NAV per DPU CAGR unit (SGD)
P/NAV Cap rate Implied cap (x) (%) rate (%)
UNDERPERFORM IN-LINE OUTPERFORM OUTPERFORM OUTPERFORM UNDERPERFORM NA OUTPERFORM IN-LINE NA NA
-0.8% 1.5% 17.9% 11.1% 8.0% -6.7% NA 10.4% 0.0% NA NA 4.1%
5.4% 5.9% 7.6% 6.0% 5.9% 5.9% 5.1% 6.7% 7.4% 8.9% NA 6.0%
5.5% 6.2% 7.7% 6.1% 6.3% 6.0% 5.1% 7.8% 9.0% 8.8% NA 6.2%
1.0% 1.71 2.1% 1.16 0.3% 1.06 0.9% HKD 10.24 3.6% 0.92 0.7% 1.78 0.0% 0.90 7.7% 1.45 10.7% 0.45 -0.1% 0.87 NA 0.73 2.1%
1.16 1.13 0.82 0.66 0.89 1.05 1.14 1.03 0.91 1.11 0.74 1.02
5.4% 4.7% 4.4% 4.1% 5.3% 5.4% 4.7% 6.6% 11.0% 6.2% 3.5% 5.3%
4.8% 4.4% 4.9% 5.3% 5.8% 5.2% 4.3% 6.5% 11.8% 5.9% 4.6% 5.2%
2.06 1.77 1.41 1.33 0.92 NA
OUTPERFORM OUTPERFORM OUTPERFORM IN-LINE OUTPERFORM NA
14.1% 6.9% 11.0% -1.5% 15.0% NA 10.0%
5.2% 5.2% 6.4% 6.0% 7.1% NA 5.6%
6.6% 6.3% 7.0% 6.9% 8.7% NA 6.7%
12.7% 10.4% 4.7% 7.7% 10.8% NA 9.5%
2.06 1.66 1.37 1.55 1.06 4.44
0.88 1.00 0.93 0.87 0.75 0.38 0.91
4.5% 4.2% 4.1% 5.0% 4.2% 4.1% 4.3%
4.9% 4.2% 4.3% 5.4% 4.9% 5.8% 4.6%
2.29 1.16 1.42 0.76 1.21 1.44 1.06 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.13
2.04 1.11 1.44 0.69 1.06 1.39 NA 0.64 NA 0.69 NA
UNDERPERFORM UNDERPERFORM UNDERPERFORM UNDERPERFORM UNDERPERFORM IN-LINE NA UNDERPERFORM NA UNDERPERFORM NA
-10.9% -4.3% 1.4% -9.2% -12.4% -3.1% NA -19.0% NA -13.8% NA -7.6%
6.6% 6.4% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 6.5% 7.7% 8.9% NA 6.8%
6.1% 6.0% 6.2% 7.6% 7.9% 8.0% 7.6% 7.4% 8.2% 10.3% NA 6.7%
-3.9% -2.9% -3.4% 4.9% 5.0% 4.1% 1.9% 6.4% 3.2% 7.7% NA -0.8%
1.98 0.95 1.20 0.69 0.98 1.47 1.07 0.62 0.81 0.76 0.34
1.16 1.22 1.18 1.10 1.23 0.98 0.99 1.27 0.98 1.06 0.38 1.13
6.6% 6.5% 7.2% 6.8% 7.6% 6.6% 6.6% 10.5% 5.7% 7.0% 3.5% 6.8%
6.0% 5.8% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.7% 6.7% 8.9% 5.8% 6.8% 10.1% 6.4%
1.71 1.23 0.87 0.89 0.75 0.94
1.98 1.19 0.77 0.95 0.71 NA
OUTPERFORM UNDERPERFORM UNDERPERFORM OUTPERFORM IN-LINE NA
15.8% -2.9% -11.5% 7.3% -5.3% NA 1.1%
6.5% 6.6% 6.4% 7.9% 7.9% NA 6.9%
7.0% 6.9% 6.9% 8.4% 7.7% NA 7.2%
3.5% 2.1% 3.3% 3.1% -1.6% NA 2.4%
1.62 1.36 0.98 0.91 0.77 1.17
1.06 0.90 0.89 0.97 0.97 0.80 0.95
6.5% 5.4% 5.1% 5.4% 7.1% 6.5% 5.8%
6.2% 5.8% 5.5% 5.5% 7.2% 7.4% 6.0%
2.45 1.17 0.93
NA NA NA NA 0.82 OUTPERFORM
NA NA -11.4% -11.4% 2.0%
4.8% 7.1% 7.8% 6.2% 6.2%
5.1% 7.5% 8.9% 6.7% 6.6%
2.9% 3.0% 6.9% 3.9% 3.2%
1.60 0.96 0.89
1.53 1.21 1.04 1.33 1.03
6.0% 8.4% 10.4% 7.7% 5.6%
4.5% 7.4% 10.0% 6.6% 5.5%
15
*Not under our coverage. Data for these stocks are Bloomberg consensus estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
16 June 2014
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited.
Figure 32: Singapore-listed REITs – Potential upside/downside to our price targets
EPU forecast (S¢)
Name Retail REITs CapitaMall Trust Mapletree Commercial Trust Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust Fortune REIT (HK¢) Starhill Global REIT Frasers Centrepoint Trust SPH REIT * CapitaRetail China Trust Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust Croesus Retail Trust * Perennial China Retail Trust Weighted average Office REITs Suntec REIT CapitaCommercial Trust Keppel REIT Frasers Commercial Trust OUE Commercial REIT Forterra Trust * Weighted average Industrial REITs Ascendas REIT Mapletree Logistics Trust Mapletree Industrial Trust Cambridge Industrial Trust Cache Logistics Trust AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT * Ascendas India Trust Soilbuild Business Space REIT * Viva Industrial Trust Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust * Weighted average Hospitality REITs CDL Hospitality Trusts Ascott Residence Trust Far East Hospitality Trust OUE Hospitality Trust Ascendas Hospitality Trust Saizen REIT * Weighted average Healthcare REITs Parkway Life REIT * First REIT * Religare Health Trust Weighted average Overall mkt cap weighted average
2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
EPU yield EPU CAGR 2014-16E
10.04 6.72 4.59 31.42 5.27 10.42 NA 7.99 3.01 NA NA
11.55 7.20 4.87 35.99 4.84 10.63 4.60 8.74 2.78 12.39 NA
10.32 7.44 5.07 37.94 4.98 10.62 4.70 10.19 3.12 8.41 NA
10.65 7.50 5.06 36.66 5.21 10.75 4.80 10.20 3.41 8.93 NA
-4.0% 2.1% 2.0% 0.9% 3.7% 0.6% 2.2% 8.0% 10.8% -15.1% NA 11.6%
5.91 7.61 4.84 7.92 NA NA
6.22 7.85 5.65 7.88 3.58 NA
8.22 8.31 6.09 8.78 4.72 NA
9.61 9.66 7.85 9.26 5.47 NA
13.86 7.62 9.80 5.66 7.95 9.18 7.54 4.28 4.93 5.14 NA
13.94 7.24 9.31 4.90 7.63 10.16 6.40 5.24 5.10 5.14 NA
14.27 7.04 8.43 5.41 8.00 11.01 6.80 5.70 6.20 5.47 NA
10.73 5.15 5.04 5.76 5.53 1.21
11.30 6.40 4.93 6.06 5.58 NA
10.41 8.15 4.02
11.80 9.80 5.96
DPU forecast (S¢)
2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
DPU yield DPU CAGR 2014-16E
2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
5.1% 5.8% 5.1% 5.5% 5.3% 5.6% 4.7% 5.3% 6.5% 5.9% 5.6% 5.7% NA 4.5% 5.3% 5.8% 7.4% 6.8% NA 12.9% NA NA 5.2% 5.6%
5.2% 5.7% 5.9% 5.6% 6.1% 5.7% 4.6% 6.8% 7.6% 8.8% NA 5.6%
5.4% 5.7% 5.9% 5.4% 6.4% 5.8% 4.7% 6.8% 8.3% 9.3% NA 5.9%
10.29 7.22 6.19 36.00 5.00 10.93 NA 9.17 3.25 NA NA
10.64 7.75 6.59 40.60 4.81 11.02 5.30 9.99 3.02 8.51 NA
10.62 8.00 6.63 42.56 4.94 11.05 5.20 11.57 3.39 8.53 NA
10.86 8.07 6.62 41.30 5.16 11.17 5.30 11.60 3.70 8.49 NA
1.0% 2.1% 0.3% 0.9% 3.6% 0.7% 0.0% 7.7% 10.7% -0.1% NA 2.1%
5.2% 5.5% 7.2% 5.3% 6.1% 5.9% NA 6.1% 7.9% NA NA 5.8%
5.4% 5.9% 7.6% 6.0% 5.9% 5.9% 5.1% 6.7% 7.4% 8.9% NA 6.0%
5.4% 6.1% 7.7% 6.3% 6.1% 5.9% 5.0% 7.7% 8.3% 8.9% NA 6.1%
5.5% 6.2% 7.7% 6.1% 6.3% 6.0% 5.1% 7.8% 9.0% 8.8% NA 6.2%
24.3% 11.0% 17.8% 8.4% 23.6% NA 17.2%
3.3% 4.6% 3.8% 5.9% NA NA 4.0%
3.4% 4.7% 4.5% 5.8% 4.5% NA 4.3%
4.6% 5.0% 4.8% 6.5% 5.9% NA 5.0%
5.3% 5.8% 6.2% 6.9% 6.8% NA 5.9%
9.34 8.14 7.88 7.83 NA NA
9.42 8.57 8.15 8.06 5.70 NA
10.90 9.06 7.54 8.85 6.41 NA
11.95 10.44 8.93 9.34 6.99 NA
12.7% 10.4% 4.7% 7.7% 10.8% NA 9.5%
5.2% 4.9% 6.2% 5.8% NA NA 5.4%
5.2% 5.2% 6.4% 6.0% 7.1% NA 5.6%
6.0% 5.5% 5.9% 6.6% 8.0% NA 6.0%
6.6% 6.3% 7.0% 6.9% 8.7% NA 6.7%
13.38 6.95 8.68 5.28 8.47 11.44 7.00 5.94 6.20 6.10 NA
-2.0% -2.1% -3.5% 3.8% 5.4% 6.1% 4.6% 6.5% 10.3% 9.0% NA 0.5%
6.1% 6.6% 6.9% 7.4% 6.6% 6.4% 7.1% 5.4% 6.2% 6.4% NA 6.4%
6.1% 6.2% 6.6% 6.4% 6.3% 7.1% 6.1% 6.6% 6.4% 6.4% NA 6.3%
6.2% 6.1% 5.9% 7.1% 6.6% 7.7% 6.4% 7.2% 7.8% 6.8% NA 6.4%
5.8% 6.0% 6.1% 6.9% 7.0% 8.0% 6.6% 7.5% 7.8% 7.6% NA 6.4%
14.29 7.29 9.90 4.98 8.65 10.41 9.38 4.44 6.00 6.80 NA
15.04 7.38 9.48 5.28 8.70 10.53 7.70 5.13 6.10 7.10 NA
14.77 7.06 8.60 5.87 9.25 11.38 7.80 5.59 6.30 7.45 NA
13.89 6.96 8.84 5.81 9.59 11.41 8.00 5.81 6.50 8.24 NA
-3.9% -2.9% -3.4% 4.9% 5.0% 4.1% 1.9% 6.4% 3.2% 7.7% NA -0.8%
6.2% 6.3% 7.0% 6.5% 7.1% 7.3% 8.9% 5.6% 7.6% 8.5% NA 6.7%
6.6% 6.4% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 6.5% 7.7% 8.9% NA 6.8%
6.4% 6.1% 6.1% 6.0% 6.1% 6.2% 7.7% 7.6% 7.6% 7.9% 7.9% 8.0% 7.4% 7.6% 7.1% 7.4% 7.9% 8.2% 9.3% 10.3% NA NA 6.8% 6.7%
11.92 6.65 5.12 6.31 5.50 NA
12.01 6.71 5.28 6.47 5.39 NA
3.1% 2.4% 3.5% 3.3% -1.7% NA 2.5%
6.3% 4.2% 5.8% 6.5% 7.4% 1.3% 5.8%
6.6% 5.2% 5.7% 6.8% 7.4% NA 6.2%
7.0% 5.4% 5.9% 7.1% 7.3% NA 6.4%
7.0% 5.5% 6.1% 7.3% 7.2% NA 6.5%
10.97 8.40 5.64 6.70 5.87 1.29
11.16 8.07 5.58 6.96 5.94 NA
11.87 8.37 5.79 7.23 5.85 NA
11.95 8.42 5.96 7.40 5.75 NA
3.5% 2.1% 3.3% 3.1% -1.6% NA 2.4%
6.4% 6.9% 6.5% 7.6% 7.8% 1.4% 6.9%
6.5% 6.6% 6.4% 7.9% 7.9% NA 6.9%
6.9% 6.8% 6.7% 8.2% 7.8% NA 7.2%
7.0% 6.9% 6.9% 8.4% 7.7% NA 7.2%
12.00 9.80 6.36
12.30 9.10 6.94
2.1% -3.6% 7.9% 1.9% 8.6%
4.3% 7.0% 4.3% 5.0% 5.3%
4.8% 8.4% 6.4% 6.2% 5.6%
4.9% 8.4% 6.9% 6.3% 5.8%
5.0% 7.8% 7.5% 6.4% 6.1%
10.75 7.52 8.07
11.80 8.30 7.19
12.00 8.50 7.75
12.50 8.80 8.21
2.9% 3.0% 6.9% 3.9% 3.2%
4.4% 6.4% 8.7% 6.0% 6.1%
4.8% 7.1% 7.8% 6.2% 6.2%
4.9% 7.3% 8.4% 6.4% 6.4%
5.1% 7.5% 8.9% 6.7% 6.6%
16
*Not under our coverage. Data for these stocks are Bloomberg consensus estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
16 June 2014
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited.
Figure 33: Singapore-listed REITs – EPU/DPU forecasts
Name Retail REITs CapitaMall Trust Mapletree Commercial Trust Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust Fortune REIT Starhill Global REIT Frasers Centrepoint Trust SPH REIT * CapitaRetail China Trust Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust Croesus Retail Trust * Perennial China Retail Trust Total/Weighted average Office REITs Suntec REIT CapitaCommercial Trust Keppel REIT Frasers Commercial Trust OUE Commercial REIT Forterra Trust * Total/Weighted average Industrial REITs Ascendas REIT Mapletree Logistics Trust Mapletree Industrial Trust Cambridge Industrial Trust Cache Logistics Trust AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT * Ascendas India Trust Soilbuild Business Space REIT * Viva Industrial Trust Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust * Total/Weighted average Hospitality REITs CDL Hospitality Trusts Ascott Residence Trust Far East Hospitality Trust OUE Hospitality Trust Ascendas Hospitality Trust Saizen REIT * Total/Weighted average Healthcare REITs Parkway Life REIT * First REIT * Religare Health Trust Total/Weighted average Overall mkt cap weighted average
Target gearing
Debt capacity to target gearing (SGD mn)
35.1% 38.7% 38.0% 32.9% 29.6% 27.7% 26.9% 31.8% 26.7% 53.5% 28.3% 33.4%
45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 35.0% 40.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 30.0% 47.5% 50.0%
1,854 471 586 161 512 240 396 108 83 0 691
0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5%
3,311 2,166 3,060 697 680 822 10,737
37.3% 30.0% 42.4% 37.8% 40.8% 33.7% 36.3%
42.5% 40.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0%
731 1,199 341 241 128 616
0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% 0.5%
66 114 96 9 40 22 11 74 21 18 12 484
2,208 1,455 1,130 383 313 446 456 218 280 300 549 7,738
30.0% 33.3% 34.4% 29.9% 29.1% 31.7% 37.0% 22.0% 29.1% 38.9% 23.6% 31.2%
45.0% 40.0% 45.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 35.0% 35.0% 45.0% 35.0%
2,005 506 626 217 196 194 62 237 87 85 591
0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6%
2,321 3,663 2,529 1,821 1,361 568 12,263
41 158 23 56 72 62 412
694 1,296 782 587 485 215 4,058
29.9% 35.9% 30.9% 32.2% 35.6% 37.9% 32.9%
40.0% 42.5% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 45.0%
391 454 382 235 99 74
0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5%
1,581 1,103 958 3,643 109,541
33 30 8 71 3,936
554 354 64 973 36,618
35.0% 32.1% 7.3% 27.6% 33.2%
45.0% 35.0% 35.0%
287 49 417
0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Our Beta
Risk free
Mkt risk premium
Discount rate
Terminal growth rate
0.65 0.65 0.65 0.55 0.73 0.75 NA 0.85 1.05 NA NA 0.69
3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.20% 3.00% 3.00% NA 3.00% 3.00% NA NA 3.02%
6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 6.5% 6.5% NA 0.07 6.5% NA NA 6.5%
7.23% 7.23% 7.23% 6.83% 7.75% 7.88% NA 8.53% 9.83% NA NA 7.50%
1.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.00% 1.50% 1.50% NA 2.00% 0.25% NA NA 1.58%
5.7% 5.7% 5.2% 4.8% 6.2% 6.4% NA 6.5% 9.6% NA NA 5.9%
10,301 4,110 4,873 4,895 2,966 2,129 3,164 2,177 1,777 926 1,527 38,844
1,231 70 133 115 89 31 88 75 227 26 12 2,097
3,616 1,591 1,871 1,609 879 589 850 692 475 524 418 13,112
0.80 0.80 0.80 0.90 0.90 NA 0.81
3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% NA 3.00%
6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% NA 6.5%
8.20% 8.20% 8.20% 8.85% 8.85% NA 8.27%
2.50% 2.50% 2.75% 1.50% 2.75% NA 2.51%
5.7% 5.7% 5.5% 7.4% 6.1% NA 5.8%
8,780 7,214 7,217 1,844 1,668 2,580 29,302
567 61 78 37 47 82 872
0.65 0.65 0.65 0.98 0.98 0.98 NA 1.05 NA 1.03 NA 0.74
3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% NA 3.00% NA 3.00% NA 3.00%
6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% NA 6.5% NA 6.5% NA 6.5%
7.23% 7.23% 7.23% 9.34% 9.34% 9.34% NA 9.83% NA 9.66% NA 7.83%
0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% NA -0.75% NA 0.50% NA 0.44%
6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% NA 10.6% NA 9.2% NA 7.4%
7,357 4,397 3,275 1,284 1,077 1,405 1,232 1,063 961 771 2,667 25,489
0.90 0.85 1.05 1.05 1.10 NA 0.97
3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% NA 3.00%
6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% NA 6.5%
8.85% 8.53% 9.83% 9.83% 10.15% NA 9.29%
2.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.00% NA 2.31%
6.4% 6.5% 7.3% 7.3% 8.2% NA 7.0%
NA NA 1.10 1.10 0.77
NA NA 3.00% 3.00% 3.01%
NA NA 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
NA NA 10.15% 10.15% 8.04%
NA NA -0.75% -0.75% 1.58%
NA NA 10.9% 10.9% 6.5%
17
*Not under our coverage. Data for these stocks are Bloomberg consensus estimates. Balance sheet figures as of 31 March 2014 where available. Manager fees are expressed as a percentage of asset value. Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Terminal Total assets yield (SGD mn)
Total cash Total debt (SGD mn) (SGD mn) Gearing
Manager fee
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
16 June 2014
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited.
Figure 34: Singapore-listed REITs – Valuation parameters
Name HK REITs Link REIT * Hui Xian REIT Champion REIT * Yuexiu REIT Sunlight REIT Prosperity REIT Langham Hospitality Investments Regal REIT Total/Weighted average MLY REITs KLCC REIT Sunway REIT CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust Pavilion REIT Axis REIT YTL Hospitality REIT Total/Weighted average
Ticker
13-Jun-14 Mkt cap (USD price mn)
823 HK 87001 HK 2778 HK 405 HK 435 HK 808 HK 1270 HK 1881 HK
HKD 42.05 RMB 3.36 HKD 3.70 HKD 3.72 HKD 3.23 HKD 2.43 HKD 3.55 HKD 2.06
MYR 6.35 MYR 1.46 MYR 1.48 MYR 1.37 MYR 3.26 MYR 0.92
KLCCSS MK SREIT MK CMMT MK PREIT MK AXRB MK YTLREIT MK
Free float (%)
Free float (USD mn)
1M ADTV (USD mn)
12,536 2,822 2,735 1,337 678 442 922 866 22,337
100% 47% 39% 37% 68% 87% 37% 25% 75%
12,516 1,322 1,061 498 461 385 341 216 16,801
23.28 0.76 1.42 1.33 0.64 0.54 1.02 0.16 13.65
Nov-05 Apr-11 May-06 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-05 May-13 Mar-07
0.5% -0.9% 1.1% -0.3% -0.3% 0.4% -1.4% -1.0% 0.2%
16.3% -4.0% 6.3% 0.0% 17.5% 6.1% -5.8% -0.5% 9.9%
7.5% -16.0% 2.8% -13.1% -0.3% -2.0% NA -13.8% 1.3%
11.8% -13.0% 7.9% -1.6% 7.7% 7.5% -4.6% -7.6% 5.8%
3,562 1,329 817 1,282 467 377 7,833
25% 42% 40% 21% 57% 31% 31%
874 558 324 269 266 115 2,407
0.65 0.55 0.26 0.31 0.20 0.29 0.49
May-13 Jul-10 Jul-10 Dec-11 Aug-05 Dec-05
-3.8% 0.7% 1.4% -0.7% -2.1% 0.5% -1.7%
0.8% 8.1% -2.6% -2.1% -0.9% 2.2% 1.2%
-7.3% -11.5% -18.2% -14.9% -17.5% -16.8% -11.5%
8.5% 17.7% 5.7% 7.0% 11.3% -9.4% 8.9%
Listing date % change 1W
% change 3M
% change 12M % change YTD
*Under our coverage. Data for the other stocks are Bloomberg consensus estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Figure 36: Mid-to-large cap Asia ex-Japan REITs – Potential upside/downside to our price targets 13-Jun-14 Our price Name price target HK REITs Link REIT * HKD 42.05 HKD 45.80 Hui Xian REIT RMB 3.36 NA Champion REIT * HKD 3.70 HKD 4.16 Yuexiu REIT HKD 3.72 NA Sunlight REIT HKD 3.23 NA Prosperity REIT HKD 2.43 NA Langham Hospitality Investments HKD 3.55 NA Regal REIT HKD 2.06 NA Total/Weighted average MLY REITs KLCC REIT MYR 6.35 NA Sunway REIT MYR 1.46 NA CapitaMalls Malaysia Trust MYR 1.48 NA Pavilion REIT MYR 1.37 NA Axis REIT MYR 3.26 NA YTL Hospitality REIT MYR 0.92 NA Total/Weighted average
Upside / Our rating (downside)
2014E DPU (local ¢)
2016E DPU 2014E DPU 2016E DPU (local ¢) yield yield
2014-16E DPU CAGR
NAV per unit
P/NAV (x)
Cap rate (%)
Implied cap rate (%) 5.2% 9.8% 6.8% 7.5% 10.9% 4.9% 5.1% 7.5% 6.4% . 6.2% 5.2% 6.0% 5.6% 5.6% 6.7% 5.9%
OUTPERFORM NA OUTPERFORM NA NA NA NA NA
8.9% NA 12.4% NA NA NA NA NA 9.5%
165.6 26.8 20.6 22.6 19.3 16.0 28.7 17.0
191.3 30.4 20.4 23.6 21.0 15.0 29.3 NA
3.9% 8.0% 5.6% 6.1% 6.0% 6.6% 8.1% 8.3% 5.3%
4.6% 9.0% 5.5% 6.3% 6.5% 6.2% 8.3% NA 5.7%
7.5% 6.5% -0.5% 2.2% 4.3% -3.2% 1.0% NA 5.5%
HKD 38.04 RMB 5.41 HKD 7.94 HKD 4.55 HKD 6.77 HKD 4.57 HKD 5.33 HKD 4.90
1.11 0.62 0.47 0.82 0.48 0.53 0.67 0.42 0.88
5.7% 6.3% 4.1% 6.6% 6.7% 3.1% 4.0% 4.1% 5.5%
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA
33.1 8.0 9.1 7.8 20.4 6.0
36.0 9.9 10.2 8.3 21.3 7.0
5.2% 5.5% 6.1% 5.7% 6.3% 6.6% 5.6%
5.7% 6.8% 6.9% 6.1% 6.5% 7.7% 6.2%
4.3% 11.2% 5.9% 3.2% 2.2% 8.0% 5.5%
MYR 6.48 MYR 1.20 MYR 1.24 MYR 1.17 MYR 2.23 MYR 1.01
0.98 1.21 1.19 1.17 1.46 0.91 1.10
6.1% 6.0% 6.8% 6.4% 7.3% 6.4% 6.3%
*Under our coverage. Data for the other stocks are Bloomberg consensus estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
16 June 2014
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited.
Figure 35: Mid-to-large cap Asia ex-Japan REITs – Free float and performance
18
Name SINGAPORE CapitaLand * City Developments * Keppel Land * OUE * ARA Asset Management * Global Logistic Properties UOL Wing Tai Holdings Frasers Centrepoint Yanlord GuocoLand Ho Bee Land Total/Weighted average Indonesia Lippo Karawaci Summarecon Agung Bumi Serpong Damai Ciputra Development Pakuwon Jati Alam Sutera Realty Kwasan Industri Jababeka Sentul City Total/Weighted average Malaysia IOI Properties Group UEM Sunrise SP Setia Sunway IJM Land IGB Corporation Total/Weighted average Thailand Central Pattana Land & Houses Hemaraj Land Development LPN Development Quality Houses Sansiri Total/Weighted average Philippines Ayala Land SM Prime Holdings Megaworld Corp Robinsons Land Corp Vista Land & Landscapes Total/Weighted average
Ticker CAPL SP CIT SP KPLD SP OUE SP ARA SP GLP SP UOL SP WINGT SP FCL SP YLLG SP GUOL SP HOBEE SP
Our price target (SGD) SGD 3.52 SGD 9.93 SGD 3.63 SGD 2.53 SGD 2.10 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Mkt cap (USD mn)
Free float (%)
Free float (USD mn)
1M ADTV (USD mn)
% change 1M
% change 3M
% change 12M
% change YTD
IN-LINE UNDERPERFORM IN-LINE IN-LINE OUTPERFORM NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
10,994 7,617 4,238 1,745 1,192 10,355 4,161 1,221 4,215 1,729 2,005 1,201 50,675
60% 52% 45% 32% 53% 60% 68% 49% 12% 22% 18% 26% 49%
6,639 3,924 1,919 558 629 6,223 2,832 602 509 381 371 318 24,905
15.4 5.8 3.3 1.2 0.3 28.2 3.4 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.5 10.7
3.2% -1.1% -1.2% 3.4% -2.8% -6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% -2.6% -2.3% 3.2% -0.8%
17.5% 13.2% 8.5% 7.2% -3.0% -2.9% 13.7% 10.8% 16.2% 0.5% -3.6% 8.1% 9.7%
0.3% 5.8% -1.4% -3.5% -2.5% -1.1% 8.8% 0.0% NA -14.6% 6.0% 19.4% 1.5%
6.6% 9.2% 2.7% 2.0% -5.1% -7.3% 9.9% -1.0% 13.4% -9.4% -6.2% 7.6% 3.0%
Our Rating
LPKR IJ SMRA IJ BSDE IJ CTRA IJ PWON IJ ASRI IJ KIJA IJ BKSL IJ
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
2,054 1,486 2,453 1,350 1,531 778 408 303 10,363
82% 68% 40% 61% 43% 50% 80% 66% 59%
1,687 1,007 978 827 665 387 326 199 6,076
5.0 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.4 2.1 0.8 1.5 2.4
-7.1% -4.3% -1.6% -6.3% -5.1% -13.5% -10.8% -26.0% -6.2%
-7.5% 8.5% -6.8% -7.5% -0.8% -26.5% 0.4% -40.0% -6.1%
-36.4% -2.8% -15.8% -22.2% 5.6% -44.4% -33.6% -56.2% -19.7%
15.4% 55.8% 22.1% 40.0% 38.9% 8.6% 23.8% -27.4% 28.0%
IOIPG MK UEMS MK SPSB MK SWB MK IJMLD MK IGB MK
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA
2,586 2,918 2,307 1,644 1,671 1,132 12,260
40% 22% 20% 22% 23% 28% 26%
1,032 641 461 369 382 323 3,208
2.0 2.1 0.4 0.7 2.0 0.3 1.4
-3.7% -8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% -0.4% -0.6%
-0.8% -4.6% -0.3% 8.9% 27.3% 5.8% 4.1%
NA -34.9% -12.7% -2.1% 25.9% 12.8% -7.9%
2.4% -12.3% -2.0% 12.9% 35.3% 0.4% 3.8%
CPN TB LH TB HEMRAJ TB LPN TB QH TB SIRI TB
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA
6,758 3,128 1,157 916 970 611 13,540
48% 31% 62% 73% 56% 84% 49%
3,220 964 715 666 539 511 6,616
7.4 8.8 6.5 5.7 4.4 5.0 7.2
9.6% 4.7% 12.2% 18.9% 8.2% 14.4% 9.4%
6.0% 3.1% 17.7% 33.1% 13.2% 3.0% 8.5%
1.6% -8.2% 14.2% -16.3% 0.6% -39.4% -2.7%
18.9% 12.8% 31.3% 29.7% 29.5% 15.1% 19.9%
ALI PM SMPH PM MEG PM RLC PM VLL PM
NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA
10,043 10,279 3,299 2,164 1,238 27,023
50% 27% 33% 38% 41% 38%
5,063 2,793 1,096 827 507 10,287
8.1 3.6 12.1 1.3 2.1 6.1
-4.8% -4.7% -4.2% 0.9% -0.8% -4.0%
9.2% 12.4% 10.0% 11.3% 20.3% 11.2%
11.5% 0.2% 30.0% 8.7% 10.1% 9.2%
25.3% 10.2% 39.2% 16.0% 22.1% 20.3%
19
*Under our coverage. Data for the other stocks are Bloomberg consensus estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
16 June 2014
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited.
Figure 37: ASEAN developers and fund managers – Free float and performance
Name SINGAPORE CapitaLand * City Developments * Keppel Land * OUE * ARA Asset Management * Global Logistic Properties UOL Wing Tai Holdings Frasers Centrepoint Yanlord GuocoLand Ho Bee Land Total/Weighted average Indonesia Lippo Karawaci Summarecon Agung Bumi Serpong Damai Ciputra Development Pakuwon Jati Alam Sutera Realty Kwasan Industri Jababeka Sentul City Total/Weighted average Malaysia IOI Properties Group UEM Sunrise Bhd SP Setia Bhd Sunway IJM Land IGB Corporation Total/Weighted average Thailand Central Pattana Land & Houses Hemaraj Land Development LPN Development Quality Houses Sansiri Total/Weighted average Philippines Ayala Land SM Prime Holdings Megaworld Corp Robinsons Land Corp Vista Land & Landscapes Total/Weighted average
13-Jun-14 price
2014E EPS (local cts)
2014E PER
2015E PER
EV/ 2014E EBITDA
SGD 3.23 SGD 10.48 SGD 3.43 SGD 2.40 SGD 1.77 SGD 2.68 SGD 6.75 SGD 1.95 SGD 1.83 SGD 1.11 SGD 2.12 SGD 2.25
17.02 63.66 27.53 5.60 10.43 7.20 48.90 19.80 16.30 62.60 14.00 9.20
19.0 16.5 12.5 42.9 16.9 29.8 13.8 9.8 11.2 1.8 15.1 24.5 19.1
18.4 13.0 12.1 40.3 9.7 23.8 12.7 8.0 11.1 1.5 11.2 18.0 16.5
16.2 13.0 12.3 34.0 14.5 22.5 16.5 10.7 11.0 8.3 NA 27.8 16.7
16.6 10.8 12.4 34.5 8.2 17.7 16.1 9.0 11.4 7.2 NA 23.4 15.1
2.9% 1.0% 2.6% 1.2% 3.0% 1.5% 2.1% 3.8% 2.9% 5.4% NA 2.1% 2.2%
SGD 3.86 SGD 8.63 SGD 4.58 SGD 4.06 SGD 0.35 SGD 2.31 SGD 8.93 SGD 3.62 SGD 2.17 SGD 1.90 SGD 2.24 SGD 3.47
0.84 1.21 0.75 0.59 5.11 1.16 0.76 0.54 0.84 0.58 0.95 0.65 1.02
IDR 1,050 IDR 1,215 IDR 1,575 IDR 1,050 IDR 375 IDR 467 IDR 239 IDR 114
7,217.50 7,899.70 11,380.60 7,914.30 3,073.60 7,409.50 3,315.00 1,100.00
14.5 15.4 13.8 13.3 12.2 6.3 7.2 10.4 13.0
14.4 13.7 11.9 10.8 9.6 5.8 6.9 6.3 11.3
9.3 10.9 11.2 8.3 9.0 6.6 4.9 9.2 9.4
8.7 9.8 9.7 7.0 7.2 6.1 4.9 7.2 8.3
1.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% 3.2% NA 2.2% 1.9%
IDR 598 IDR 326 IDR 622 IDR 436 IDR 89 IDR 278 IDR 212 IDR 173
MYR 2.57 MYR 2.07 MYR 2.95 MYR 3.07 MYR 3.45 MYR 2.73
15.20 12.40 19.70 27.80 28.20 16.50
16.9 16.7 15.0 11.0 12.2 16.5 15.0
12.2 16.0 11.3 10.1 11.1 15.6 12.8
11.1 16.4 13.5 10.3 10.8 7.4 12.3
8.9 16.2 10.4 9.7 7.2 6.9 10.6
1.9% 1.9% 4.1% 2.9% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5%
THB 48.75 THB 10.10 THB 3.86 THB 20.10 THB 3.42 THB 2.06
162.90 62.00 34.40 158.90 33.00 23.50
29.9 16.3 11.2 12.6 10.4 8.8 21.7
25.6 14.6 10.2 9.3 9.0 7.3 18.6
19.1 19.5 13.6 11.4 16.4 14.2 17.8
16.4 17.2 12.9 8.5 14.1 11.7 15.4
PHP 31.00 PHP 16.18 PHP 4.51 PHP 23.15 PHP 6.35
102.10 71.30 30.70 126.10 68.10
30.4 22.7 14.7 18.4 9.3 23.6
25.6 19.7 12.4 15.0 8.1 20.1
19.3 16.4 12.0 11.4 10.6 16.3
16.4 14.2 10.2 9.5 9.3 13.9
*Under our coverage. Data for the other stocks are Bloomberg consensus estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research estimates
EV/ 2015E 2014E DPS EBITDA yield
RNAV
P/RNAV
10Y mean P/RNAV
Net debt/ Equity
1.13 1.60 1.33 1.01 8.30 1.12 0.78 0.81 NA 2.08 1.16 0.93 1.40
-26.0% SGD 5.03 -24.1% SGD 14.18 -43.5% SGD 5.18 -41.6% SGD 4.21 -38.4% SGD 2.00 3.3% NA -3.7% NA -33.7% NA NA NA -71.9% NA -18.2% NA -30.3% NA -21.3%
0.64 0.74 0.66 0.57 0.88 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.67
0.79 0.88 0.79 0.60 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.80
37.0% 27.0% 40.5% 36.6% -14.5% 11.1% 23.6% 20.2% 48.3% 48.8% 154.5% 31.1% 33.6%
1.76 3.72 2.53 2.41 4.23 1.68 1.13 0.66 2.61
2.26 2.72 2.63 1.58 3.15 2.82 1.22 1.45 2.43
-22.3% 37.1% -3.6% 52.9% 34.2% -40.4% -7.6% -54.6% 7.1%
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
-5.8% -0.9% -10.2% -7.6% -8.7% 59.1% -1.7% 20.4% -1.0%
MYR 3.26 MYR 1.34 MYR 2.29 MYR 2.70 MYR 1.93 MYR 3.00
0.79 1.55 1.29 1.14 1.78 0.91 1.26
NA 2.22 1.78 1.01 1.02 0.85 1.54
NA -30.5% -27.5% 12.8% 74.1% 7.0% 0.1%
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA
4.9% 8.5% 56.4% 30.2% 27.4% 12.9% 22.6%
1.2% 4.8% 4.3% 4.0% 4.6% 5.8% 2.9%
THB 8.44 THB 3.49 THB 1.39 THB 6.18 THB 1.95 THB 1.79
5.77 2.90 2.77 3.25 1.75 1.15 4.19
5.46 2.24 2.87 3.30 1.50 1.39 3.88
5.7% 29.1% -3.4% -1.5% 17.0% -17.2% 9.6%
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA
48.8% 94.5% 62.4% 42.6% 108.0% 190.5% 70.7%
1.3% 1.8% 0.7% 1.8% 2.0% 1.5%
PHP 6.88 PHP 6.14 PHP 2.97 PHP 12.58 PHP 5.86
4.51 2.64 1.52 1.84 1.08 3.06
2.91 3.33 0.83 1.56 0.91 2.62
54.8% -20.9% 82.3% 18.1% 18.9% 24.8%
NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA
54.0% 46.4% -3.3% 23.5% 39.6% 41.0%
NAV/sh
P/NAV 10Y/Hist (x) mean P/NAV
Prem/ (disc) to hist P/NAV
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
16 June 2014
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited.
Figure 38: ASEAN developers and fund managers – Valuation parameters
20
Name FTSE EPRA NAREIT Asia Pacific
Ticker FENHP
13-Jun-14 value 1,644
% change 1W 1.1%
% change 1M 2.9%
% change 3M 12.0%
% change 12M 0.0%
% change YTD 3.6%
ELSI FSTRE FSTREI FSSTI
1,172 752 762 3,293
-0.5% -0.3% -0.8% -0.2% -0.1% -0.6%
-0.9% -0.7% -0.4% 0.9% -1.7% -1.4%
9.4% 8.2% 6.9% 7.1% 1.1% -0.2%
2.2% 1.2% -1.1% 4.2% -3.0% -5.2%
5.5% 6.3% 6.7% 4.0% 2.3% 2.7%
ELAU AS51REAL AS51PROP AS51
780 2,528 1,069 5,405
-0.7% -0.4% -0.4% -0.6% 0.2% 0.2%
0.5% 0.2% 0.5% -1.4% 1.5% 1.9%
6.2% 6.8% 6.1% 1.4% 5.4% 4.7%
5.4% 7.7% 5.7% 12.8% -5.1% -7.1%
8.4% 9.1% 8.5% 1.0% 8.2% 7.5%
Hong Kong FTSE EPRA NAREIT Hong Kong Hang Seng Property & Construction Index Hang Seng Index HSCIPC outperf./(underperf) vs HSCI
ELHK HSCIPC HSCI
1,885 2,833 3,198
0.2% 0.5% 1.4% -1.0%
3.2% 2.5% 3.1% -0.6%
14.4% 9.8% 6.7% 3.1%
1.6% 0.2% 10.2% -10.0%
5.5% -1.7% -1.9% 0.2%
China China SE Shang Property Index Shanghai Composite Index SHPROP outperf./(underperf.) vs SHCOMP
SHPROP SHCOMP
3,222 2,071
0.9% 2.0% -1.1%
0.8% 2.2% -1.4%
7.8% 3.3% 4.5%
-5.6% -4.2% -1.4%
-3.8% -2.1% -1.7%
Japan FTSE EPRA NAREIT Japan Nikkei 500 Real Estate Nikkei 225 Index N5REAL outperf./(underperf.) vs NKY
ELJP N5REAL NKY
3,039 1,626 15,098
0.3% -0.8% 0.1% -0.9%
2.2% 0.2% 7.1% -6.9%
7.0% 3.8% 5.4% -1.6%
17.1% 15.0% 19.0% -4.0%
-9.5% -15.0% -7.3% -7.7%
Singapore FTSE EPRA Singapore FTSE Singapore Real Estate Index FTSE Singapore REIT Index Straits Times Index FSTRE outperf./(underperf) vs FSSTI FSTREI outperf./(underperf) vs FSSTI Australia FTSE EPRA NAREIT Australia S&P/ASX 200 Real Estate Index S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT Index S&P/ASX 200 Index AS51REAL outperf./(underperf) vs AS51 AS51PROP outperf./(underperf) vs AS51
Source: Bloomberg
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
16 June 2014
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited.
Figure 39: Asia real estate market indices
21
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
Figure 40: ASEAN property – Our recent research Date
Ticker
Title
Author
10-Jun-2014
Sector
Lower land supply supportive of prospects for office and hotel SREITs
Regina Lim
9-Jun-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – CAPL to successfully delist CMA
Regina Lim
2-Jun-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – Prime office asking rents rose 10% in 1H14, leasing demand stayed strong
Regina Lim
26-May-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – SREITs could outperform if fee structures are improved
Regina Lim
20-May-2014
Sector
ACT: Office REITs likely to offer higher dividend yields than industrial REITs by 2016
Regina Lim
19-May-2014
Sector
On-The-Ground: Cutting fees and raising confidence
Kai Yip
19-May-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – CAPL raises offer price for CMA to SGD 2.35/share
Regina Lim
12-May-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – Downgraded CAPL and KPLD to In-Line; CIT to Underperform
Regina Lim
9-May-2014
OUECT SP
Pickup in office occupancy drives strong organic performance
Kai Yip
7-May-2014
Sector
Falling market share, shrinking pie for Singapore residential developers
Regina Lim
5-May-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – Office is the only bright spot: 1Q14 results wrap
Regina Lim
30-Apr-2014
Sector
Office is the only bright spot: 1Q14 results wrap
Regina Lim
28-Apr-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – Consolidation of CMA could take longer than expected
Regina Lim
28-Apr-2014
CAPL SP
Consolidation of CapitaMalls Asia could take longer than expected
Regina Lim
25-Apr-2014
FCOT SP
Swapping 55 Market St for Alexandra Point could minimise equity required
Kai Yip
22-Apr-2014
AREIT SP
Business park vacancy rate of 18% unlikely to fall
Meenal Kumar
21-Apr-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – CAPL to offer SGD2.22/share for CMA
Regina Lim
15-Apr-2014
CMA SP
Jewel back in the crown
Meenal Kumar
14-Apr-2014
CAPL SP
Harvesting low-hanging fruit, but more growth ideas needed
Regina Lim
14-Apr-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – 1Q14 results season kicks off
Regina Lim
11-Apr-2014
CCT SP
Three potential surprises to look forward to
Regina Lim
8-Apr-2014
FCT SP
Changi City Point acquisition could require equity to maintain gearing
Kai Yip
7-Apr-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – Office occupancy rates and rents rise
Regina Lim
7-Apr-2014
Sector
On-The-Ground: Squeeze on middle-income expats could hurt business park demand
Regina Lim
3-Apr-2014
OUEHT SP
Improving liquidity and potential acquisition on the cards
Kai Yip
31-Mar-2014
SUN SP
The most liquid Singapore office play, at 20% discount to book
Regina Lim
31-Mar-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – CAPL acquires a 60% interest in two adjacent Chengdu residential sites
Regina Lim
28-Mar-2014
AAREIT SP
Paving the way for potential redevelopment projects in Singapore
Kai Yip
27-Mar-2014
ASCHT SP
Growth phase needs to be funded by equity
Meenal Kumar
24-Mar-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – CAPL sells remaining Australand shares for SGD 970mn
Regina Lim
24-Mar-2014
MINT SP
Consistently able to find value within its portfolio
Meenal Kumar
17-Mar-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – Residential land prices moderate in Singapore and Hong Kong
Regina Lim
10-Mar-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – STB expects tourist arrivals to grow 5-8% in 2014
Regina Lim
3-Mar-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – Prime office rents could rise 40% from here
Regina Lim
27-Feb-2014
CIT SP
Could surprise with SGD 3bn of investments
Meenal Kumar
27-Feb-2014
Sector
On-The-Ground: Prime office rents could rise 40% from here
Regina Lim
27-Feb-2014
OUECT SP
A premium office REIT offering 7.7% dividend yield potential in 2015
Kai Yip
26-Feb-2014
OUEHT SP
Prime hotel on Orchard Road continues to outperform the upscale sector
Kai Yip
25-Feb-2014
VIT SP
Occupancy gains at Chai Chee may only be achieved after AEI
Meenal Kumar
24-Feb-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – Buy CRCT for 7.3% 2014E DPU yield
Regina Lim
21-Feb-2014
ARA SP
Performance fee bumper is likely to be delayed to 2015
Meenal Kumar
19-Feb-2014
CAPL SP
Higher operating income and payout ratio are encouraging
Regina Lim
18-Feb-2014
CRCT SP
Possible privatisation candidate offers 8.8% 2015E DPU yield
Kai Yip
17-Feb-2014
Sector
On-The-Ground: Pessimism may have peaked for the prime residential sector
Regina Lim
17-Feb-2014
LMRT SP
A disappointing quarter
Meenal Kumar
17-Feb-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) relief
Regina Lim
13-Feb-2014
CMA SP
Attractively priced, but upside surprises unlikely given management’s comfortable stance
Meenal Kumar
13-Feb-2014
RHT SP
High DPU yield with debt capacity for growth
Meenal Kumar
12-Feb-2014
FEHT SP
Near-term surprises unlikely
Kai Yip
10-Feb-2014
Sector
Easing the pain
Regina Lim
10-Feb-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – Office REITs may price in a 20% increase in rents, but leasing is strong
Regina Lim
7-Feb-2014
ASCHT SP
Australia surprises with 12% y/y RevPar growth
Meenal Kumar
3-Feb-2014
Sector
ASEAN Property Weekly – KREIT could buy MBFC Tower 3 without new equity
Regina Lim
29-Jan-2014
CDREIT SP
Current valuations seem to be pricing in 8% fall in RevPar
Meenal Kumar
29-Jan-2014
AAREIT SP
Redevelopment projects on track, but risk of equity raising remains
Kai Yip
Please visit Standard Chartered Global Research to view the above-mentioned publications. Source: Standard Chartered Research
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 16 June 2014
22
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
Disclosures appendix The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, Standard Chartered Bank Singapore Branch, Standard Chartered Securities (India) Limited, Standard Chartered Securities Korea Limited and/or one or more of its affiliates (together with its group of companies, ”SCB”) and the research analyst(s) named in this report. THIS RESEARCH HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCED IN THE UNITED STATES. Analyst Certification Disclosure: The research analyst or analysts responsible for the content of this research report certify that: (1) the views expressed and attributed to the research analyst or analysts in the research report accurately reflect their personal opinion(s) about the subject securities and issuers and/or other subject matter as appropriate; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. On a general basis, the efficacy of recommendations is a factor in the performance appraisals of analysts. Where “disclosure date” appears below, this means the day prior to the report date. All share prices quoted are the closing price for the business day prior to the date of the report, unless otherwise stated.
Recommendation Distribution and Investment Banking Relationships % of covered companies currently assigned this rating
% of companies assigned this rating with which SCB has provided investment banking services over the past 12 months
OUTPERFORM
54.4%
12.7%
IN-LINE
35.4%
11.5%
UNDERPERFORM As of 31 March 2014
10.2%
7.7%
Research Recommendation Terminology OUTPERFORM (OP) IN-LINE (IL) UNDERPERFORM (UP)
Definitions The total return on the security is expected to outperform the relevant market index by 5% or more over the next 12 months The total return on the security is not expected to outperform or underperform the relevant market index by 5% or more over the next 12 months The total return on the security is expected to underperform the relevant market index by 5% or more over the next 12 months
SCB uses an investment horizon of 12 months for its price targets. Additional information, including disclosures, with respect to any securities referred to herein will be available upon request. Requests should be sent to
[email protected]. Global Disclaimer: Standard Chartered Bank and/or its affiliates ("SCB”) makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory regarding this document or any information contained or referred to in the document. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute any offer, recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in rates or prices or represent that any such future movements will not exceed those shown in any illustration. The stated price of the securities mentioned herein, if any, is as of the date indicated and is not any representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. While all reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors of fact or for any opinion expressed herein. The contents of this document may not be suitable for all investors as it has not been prepared with regard to the specific investment objectives or financial situation of any particular person. Any investments discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Users of this document should seek professional advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities, financial instruments or investment strategies referred to in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realised. Opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, derived valuations, projections, and price target(s), if any, contained in this document are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Our recommendations are under constant review. The value and income of any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this document can fall as well as rise and an investor may get back less than invested. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may be incurred. Foreign-currency denominated securities and financial instruments are subject to fluctuation in exchange rates that could have a positive or adverse effect on the value, price or income of such securities and financial instruments. Past performance is not indicative of comparable future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. While we endeavour to update on a reasonable basis the information and opinions contained herein, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Accordingly, information may be available to us which is not reflected in this material, and we may have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. SCB is not a legal or tax adviser, and is not purporting to provide legal or tax advice. Independent legal and/or tax advice should be sought for any queries relating to the legal or tax implications of any investment. SCB, and/or a connected company, may have a position in any of the securities, instruments or currencies mentioned in this document. SCB and/or any member of the SCB group of companies or its respective officers, directors, employee benefit programmes or employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this document may at any time, to the extent permitted by applicable law and/or regulation, be long or short any securities or financial instruments referred to in this document and on the website or have a material interest in any such securities or related investment, or may be the only market maker in relation to such investments, or provide, or have provided advice, investment banking or other services, to issuers of such investments. SCB has in place policies and procedures and physical information walls between its Research Department and differing public and private business functions to help ensure confidential information, including ‘inside’ information is not disclosed unless in line with its policies and procedures and the rules of its regulators. Data, opinions and other information appearing herein may have been obtained from public sources. SCB makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information obtained from public sources. You are advised to make your own independent judgment (with the advice of your professional advisers as necessary) with respect to any matter contained herein and not rely on this document as the basis for making any trading, hedging or investment decision. SCB accepts no liability and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly (including special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages) from use of this document, howsoever arising, and including any loss, damage or expense arising from, but not limited to, any defect, error, imperfection, fault, mistake or inaccuracy with this document, its contents or associated services, or due to any unavailability of the document or any part thereof or any contents or associated services. This material is for the use of intended recipients only and in any jurisdiction in which distribution to private/retail customers would require registration or licensing of the distributor which the distributor does not currently have, this document is intended solely for distribution to professional and institutional investors.
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 16 June 2014
23
Equity Research l ASEAN Property Weekly – Issue 192
Country-Specific Disclosures - If you are receiving this document in any of the countries listed below, please note the following: United Kingdom and European Economic Area: SCB is authorised in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. This communication is not directed at Retail Clients in the European Economic Area as defined by Directive 2004/39/EC. Nothing in this document constitutes a personal recommendation or investment advice as defined by Directive 2004/39/EC. Australia: The Australian Financial Services Licence for Standard Chartered Bank is Licence No: 246833 with the following Australian Registered Business Number (ARBN: 097571778). Australian investors should note that this document was prepared for “wholesale clients” only within the meaning of section 761G of the Australian Corporations Act 2001 (Act) and the Corporations Regulations. This document is not directed at persons who are “retail clients” as defined in the Australian Corporations Act 2001. Brazil: SCB disclosures pursuant to the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (“CVM”) Instruction 483/10: This research has not been produced in Brazil. The report has been prepared by the research analyst(s) in an autonomous and independent way, including in relation to SCB. THE SECURITIES MENTIONED IN THIS DOCUMENT HAVE NOT BEEN AND WILL NOT BE REGISTERED PURSUANT TO THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION OF BRAZIL AND MAY NOT BE OFFERED OR SOLD IN BRAZIL EXCEPT PURSUANT TO AN APPLICABLE EXEMPTION FROM THE REGISTRATION REQUIREMENTS AND IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE SECURITIES LAWS OF BRAZIL. Germany: In Germany, this document is being distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Germany Branch which is also regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin). Hong Kong: This document, except for any portion advising on or facilitating any decision on futures contracts trading, is being distributed in Hong Kong by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Limited which is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. India: This document is being distributed in India by Standard Chartered Securities (India) Limited, which is a SEBI-registered broker and a member of the Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and The National Stock Exchange of India Limited. Registered Address: 2nd Floor, 23-25 M. G. Road, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001. India | Telephone No: 022 - 6135 5999 | Fax No: 022 6135 5900| http://www.standardcharteredtrade.co.in | Email:
[email protected]. | CIN: U65990MH1994PLC079263. Korea: This document is being distributed in Korea by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Securities Korea Limited which is regulated by the Financial Supervisory Service. Malaysia: This document is being distributed in Malaysia by Standard Chartered Bank Malaysia Berhad only to institutional investors or corporate customers. Recipients in Malaysia should contact Standard Chartered Bank Malaysia Berhad in relation to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. Singapore: This document is being distributed in Singapore by Standard Chartered Bank Singapore Branch only to accredited investors, expert investors or institutional investors, as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. Recipients in Singapore should contact Standard Chartered Bank Singapore Branch in relation to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. South Africa: SCB is licensed as a Financial Services Provider in terms of Section 8 of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37 of 2002. SCB is a Registered Credit Provider in terms of the National Credit Act 34 of 2005 under registration number NCRCP4. United States: Except for any documents relating to foreign exchange, FX or global FX, Rates or Commodities, distribution of this document in the United States or to US persons is intended to be solely to major institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6(a)(2) under the US Securities Act of 1934. All US persons that receive this document by their acceptance thereof represent and agree that they are a major institutional investor and understand the risks involved in executing transactions in securities. Any US recipient of this document wanting additional information or to effect any transaction in any security or financial instrument mentioned herein, must do so by contacting a registered representative of Standard Chartered Securities (North America) Inc., 1095 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y. 10036, US, tel + 1 212 667 0700. WE DO NOT OFFER OR SELL SECURITIES TO U.S. PERSONS UNLESS EITHER (A) THOSE SECURITIES ARE REGISTERED FOR SALE WITH THE U.S. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND WITH ALL APPROPRIATE U.S. STATE AUTHORITIES; OR (B) THE SECURITIES OR THE SPECIFIC TRANSACTION QUALIFY FOR AN EXEMPTION UNDER THE U.S. FEDERAL AND STATE SECURITIES LAWS NOR DO WE OFFER OR SELL SECURITIES TO U.S. PERSONS UNLESS (i) WE, OUR AFFILIATED COMPANY AND THE APPROPRIATE PERSONNEL ARE PROPERLY REGISTERED OR LICENSED TO CONDUCT BUSINESS; OR (ii) WE, OUR AFFILIATED COMPANY AND THE APPROPRIATE PERSONNEL QUALIFY FOR EXEMPTIONS UNDER APPLICABLE U.S. FEDERAL AND STATE LAWS. © Copyright 2014 Standard Chartered Bank and its affiliates. All rights reserved. All copyrights subsisting and arising out of all materials, text, articles and information contained herein is the property of Standard Chartered Bank and/or its affiliates, and may not be reproduced, redistributed, amended, modified, adapted, transmitted in any form, or translated in any way without the prior written permission of Standard Chartered Bank.
Note: In the interest of timeliness, this document has not been edited. 16 June 2014
24
