AMP ANTIQUE’S MORNING PRESENTATION FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
QUARTERLY RESULTS REVIEW
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL
30 October 2014
Market Snapshot Global Indices
16,974
(0.2)
2.4
NASDAQ
4,549
(0.3)
8.9
FTSE
6,454
0.8
(4.4)
Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Limited Valuation comfort, robust pipeline instils confidence
CAC
4,111
(0.0)
(4.3)
DAX
9,083
0.2
(4.9)
Dish TV India Limited Broader trends intact; Festival driven expenses weigh on margins
Russia
1,060
0.8
(26.6)
Bovespa
51,049
(2.4)
(0.9)
Nikkei
15,554
1.5
(4.0)
Hang Seng
23,820
1.3
2.2
2,373
1.5
12.1
Closing
% Chg
% YTD
27,098
0.8
28.0
8,090
0.8
28.3
504
1.0
23.8
CNX Midcap
11,590
0.5
43.6
BSE Smallcap
10,790
0.6
64.7
Prev. Day
MTD
(12)
(551)
22
812
Shanghai Composite
Indian Indices Sensex Nifty
Global News
U.S. stocks declinedafter the Federal Reserve confirmed it will end its assetpurchase program, indicating the U.S. economy is on a stable growth path.
Asian markets ended positive, with Chinese stocks trading in Hong Kong rising to the highest level in five weeks, after the nation’s biggest insurers reported a jump in profits and power producers surged on prospects for price reform.
Sector & Corporate News
% YTD
Dow Jones
Cipla Limited Progressing well
% Chg
Tech Mahindra Limited Strong performance continues
MANAGEMENT MEET UPDATE
Closing
Dr Reddy’s Laboratories has entered into an asset purchase agreement with Novartis Consumer Health to acquire the title and rights to Habitrol franchise - an over-the-counter nicotine replacement therapy transdermal patch, and to market the product in the US territory. The agreement is subject to Federal Trade Commission review and asset transfer will only occur post its clearance. Apollo Hospitals has entered into partnership with leading mobile telecommunications provider - Airtel Nigeria - to enhance access to worldclass healthcare services to the people of Nigeria. As per terms of the partnership, Ask Apollo would enable video consultation by Airtel Nigeria's premier customers with Apollo Hospitals’ doctors in India after a prior appointment. In addition to this service, Apollo Hospitals would also work with Airtel Nigeria on creating health awareness, with a particular emphasis on preventive healthcare. Wipro is planning to expand its operations in Romania, with the addition of ~150 employees by the end of next calendar year. The company is planning to increase its employee strength in Romania by 25% to 750 employees by Dec-15. At present, the company’s facilities in Romania serve over 20 customers in Eastern Europe, supported by over 600 employees. Wipro's customers in Romania span sectors like retail and consumer goods, healthcare, manufacturing, telecom, among others.
MSCI India
Flows (USDm) FII Locals
Provisional flows
(USDm)
FIIs
128
Locals
(83)
Volumes
USDbn
% Chg
3.0
9.7
Stock Fut
Index Fut
Net ($ mn)
(10)
353
Open Int (%)
1.5
8.1
ADR/GDR Gainers
Last
% Chg
Infosys
64.0
2.0
Reliance
31.1
1.9
ADR/GDR Losers
Last
% Chg
Cash (NSE + BSE)
FII F&O
ICICI Bank
55.0
(1.8)
Tata Motors
45.9
(1.6)
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
30 October 2014 | 2
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Sectoral indices
Delivery Spike Closing
% Chg
% MTD
% YTD
Company
Volume
Spike (%)
Chg (%)
BSE Auto
18,263
1.8
2.9
49.0
Grasim
101,859
380%
2.01
BSE Bank
19,031
(0.2)
8.0
46.4
Kotak Bank
967,114
216%
(0.26)
BSE Cap Goods
15,367
0.3
7.7
49.7
Rel Capital
1,015,566
133%
(0.93)
BSE Cons dur
10,039
1.0
1.9
72.5
HPCL
804,763
114%
0.33
7,423
1.2
(2.7)
13.0
Mundra Port
1,271,694
112%
4.04
BSE IT
10,286
1.5
(3.8)
13.3
Cipla
1,657,727
108%
1.66
BSE Health
14,087
(0.3)
(1.9)
41.3
Power Grid
5,786,814
98%
0.04
BSE Metal
11,575
2.6
1.4
16.2
Tata Motors
2,023,236
91%
3.45
BSE Oil
10,744
1.2
0.1
21.6
BHEL
2,498,871
88%
(0.25)
2,113
0.0
6.8
24.2
PNB
368,030
86%
(1.82)
37.7
BSE FMCG
BSE Power BSE PSU
8,137
0.0
4.6
BSE Realty
1,480
3.0
(6.4)
3.2
BSE TECK
5,750
1.3
(2.9)
13.8
Derivatives Update Long Build Up Company
Last
% Chg
% Chg OI
DLF
118
6.1
4.9
32,790
TATAMOTORS
526
3.1
9.5
22,358
3,883
2.3
10.9
4,792
256
1.9
4.3
20,378
Company
Last
% Chg
% Chg OI
OI (in 000)
ORIENTBANK
266
(4.8)
8.8
5,952
BIOCON
445
(3.0)
15.2
6,612
PFC
279
(1.3)
27.6
10,656
CESC
658
(1.3)
12.6
1,944
Last
% Chg
% Chg OI
OI (in 000) 4,578
INFY SSLT
Nifty Outperformers Price
% Chg
% MTD
% YTD
Hindalco Industries Ltd
157
6.2
0.1
28.0
Dlf Ltd
118
6.2
(21.7)
(29.1)
Tata Steel Ltd
472
4.5
2.8
11.2
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd
157
4.2
(9.2)
(39.9)
Tata Motors Ltd
526
3.5
4.8
39.8
286
2.5
(8.3)
(11.6)
3,881
2.5
3.6
11.4
Cairn India Ltd Infosys Ltd
Nifty Underperformers Punjab National Bank Bank Of Baroda Dr. Reddy'S Laboratories
Price
% Chg
% MTD
% YTD
905
(1.8)
2.0
44.4
OI (in 000)
Short Build Up
Short Covering Company HAVELLS
279
4.4
(15.2)
ADANIPORTS
272
3.7
(10.0)
8,374
TATAMTRDVR
329
3.5
(5.6)
25,710
18
3.5
(5.7)
157,301
% Chg
% Chg OI
OI (in 000)
UNITECH
906
(1.5)
0.4
40.4
Profit Booking
3,046
(1.2)
(5.7)
20.2
Company
Last
UNIONBANK
226
(2.7)
(12.8)
9,740
60
(2.2)
(8.6)
17,776
77
(1.8)
(9.3)
14,040
623
(1.8)
(2.3)
8,919
Ntpc Ltd
146
(1.0)
-
-
Sun Pharmaceutical Indus
830
(1.0)
(3.1)
46.3
IOB
Indusind Bank Ltd
692
(0.8)
11.4
64.6
ANDHRABANK
Bharti Airtel Ltd
405
(0.6)
(0.0)
22.7
RANBAXY
Bulk Deals Date
Security Name
Client Name
29-Oct-14
Himatsingka Seide Ltd
Amansa Holding Private Ltd.
29-Oct-14
Himatsingka Seide Ltd
Idfc Mutual Fund
29-Oct-14
Himatsingka Seide Ltd
Sundaram Bnp Paribas Mutual Fund
29-Oct-14
Himatsingka Seide Ltd
29-Oct-14
REPCOHOME
29-Oct-14
GSS
29-Oct-14
GSS
29-Oct-14
Vikas GlobalOne Ltd
29-Oct-14
LAKSELEC
Buy/Sell
Qty
Price
SELL
6,138,495.00
93.83
BUY
3,199,221.00
93.75
BUY
1,650,000.00
93.75
Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund
BUY
1,150,000.00
93.75
Creador I Llc
SELL
399,434.00
470.07
Beaumaris Investments Limited
SELL
1,208,412.00
30.00
Clearwater Capital Partners Singapore Fund Iv Pvt Ltd.
BUY
1,208,412.00
30.00
Ashroj Credit India Private Limited
BUY
647,552.00
17.58
Gagandeep Credit Capital Private Limited
SELL
20,000.00
475.58
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
30 October 2014 | 3
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Nifty
Nifty P/E
Nifty P/B
24
8200
4.0
22 7200
3.5
20 18
6200
3.0
16 5200
2.5
14 12
4200 Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
2.0
Oct-10
Oct-14
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Source: Bloomberg
Sensex
FII Provisional Flows (INRcr)
28000
DII Provisional Flows (INRcr) 1,500
4,000
26000 24000
750
2,000
22000
0
20000
0
18000
y
-750
16000
-2,000 Oct-13
14000 Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-14
Feb-14
Jun-14
-1,500 Oct-13
Oct-14
Feb-14
Jun-14
Oct-14
Source: Bloomberg
Economy, Money & Banking
Commodities Update
Forex Rate
Last
% Chg
% MTD
% YTD
INR~USD
61.4
INR~EUR
78.1
INR~GBP
98.9
Commodities
Last
% Chg
% MTD
% YTD
(0.0)
0.7
0.7
Gold ($/Ounce)
1,214
0.2
0.5
0.7
(0.3)
(0.6)
8.9
Crude Oil ($/Bl)
82
(0.4)
(9.3)
(11.7)
(0.1)
1.0
3.2
Aluminium ($/t)
2,037
2.1
5.6
16.1
Copper ($/t)
6,891
0.3
2.5
(6.6) 12.2
Bond Market
Last
Chg (bps)
MTD (bps)
YTD (bps)
Zinc ($/t)
2,304
2.0
1.0
10 Year Bond
8.3
0
(19)
(51)
Lead ($/t)
2,030
0.4
(2.9)
(7.3)
Interbank call
7.9
80
(20)
(85)
Nickel ($/t)
15,608
0.8
(3.9)
12.8
INR/USD
Gold and silver prices
64 63 62 61 60 59 58 Oct-13
Crude prices
2000
60
1500
40
1000 20
500
0 0 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Jan-14 Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Gold (LHS)
Silver (RHS)
110 100 90 80 Oct-10
Oct-11
Oct-12
Oct-13 Oct-14
Source: Bloomberg
Inflation vs 10 year yield 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Nov-12
Nifty premium/discount 20 15 10
NSE volatility index (%)
17.9 12.8 9.3 6.3
5 0 Jun-13 Inf lation (%)
Source: Bloomberg
Jan-14
Aug-14
10 Yr Yield (%)
-5
-1.3 22-Oct 23-Oct 27-Oct 28-Oct 29-Oct
17 16 15 14 13 12 11 30-Sep
7-Oct
14-Oct 21-Oct
28-Oct
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
2QFY15 RESULTS REVIEW
Current Reco
: BUY
Previous Reco
: BUY
CMP
: INR2,397
Target Price
: INR2,850
Tech Mahindra Limited Strong performance continues
Potential Return : 19%
Ashish Aggarwal
+91 22 4031 3427
[email protected]
Sagar Lele
+91 22 4031 3419
[email protected]
Market data :
27,098
Sector
:
IT
Market Cap (INRbn)
:
564.5
Market Cap (USDbn)
:
9.2
O/S Shares (m)
:
235.5
52-wk HI/LO (INR)
:
2544/1506
Avg Daily Vol ('000)
:
577
Bloomberg
:
TECHM IN
Source: Bloomberg
Valuation FY14
FY15e
FY16e
110.6
125.3
159.2
21.7
19.1
15.1
6.1
4.9
3.9
13.1
12.1
9.4
Dividend Yield (%) 0.7
1.0
1.3
12m
PE (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Source: Bloomberg
Returns (%) 1m
3m
6m
Absolute
(4)
9
30
57
Relative
(5)
5
8
22
Source: Bloomberg
Shareholding pattern Promoters
:
36%
FII
:
39%
DII
:
11%
Others
:
14%
Source: Bloomberg
Price performance vs Nifty 180 160 140 120 100 80 Oct-13 Feb-14 Tech Mahindra Source: Bloomberg
Tech Mahindra reported better-than-expected 5.2% USD revenue growth in 2QFY15. Margins also surprised positively as they increased ~190bps in 2QFY15. Growth in the quarter continued to remain broad-based with both telecom and enterprise business contributing to growth. Moreover, the company improved cash flow generation, which has been a concern for investors. The company has been growing above its peers in the last few quarters. Strong deal signings should help it maintain momentum going forward. Though YoY margins declined over 300bps, the company has enough levers to improve margins going forward. The stock currently trades at 15x FY16e EPS. It is likely to sustain its P/E re-rating, driven by higher-than-industry growth and improving cash flow generation. We therefore maintain our Buy rating with a target price of INR2,850 per share (16x FY16e EPS), which is at a 30% discount to Tata Consultancy Services. Revenue growth continues to outperform peers
Sensex
EPS (INR)
30 October 2014 | 4
USD revenue growth of 5.2% (6.2% in constant currency terms) was the strongest the company has posted since its merger with Satyam. Growth was even stronger than its peers, most of which reported a disappointing 2QFY15. In the quarter, growth was driven by 7.3% and 3.1% growth in telecom and enterprise business, respectively. Going forward, we expect the company's revenue to grow at a two-year (FY14-16) CAGR of 17%, aided by strong deal wins and market share gains. Growth in margins a positive After disappointing the street with a margin decline of ~300bps in 1QFY15, margins in 2QFY15 increased ~190bps. Margin gain was aided by lower visa costs, higher utilisation, and INR depreciation. Similar to peers, Tech Mahindra's margins have declined YoY. However, there are sufficient margin levers for the company. We believe the company will be able to absorb cost pressures going forward. We have built in EBITDA margin of 19.6% and 21.2% in FY15e and FY16e, respectively. Strong deal signing continues Deal signing continues to remain strong, with the company signing three large deals in enterprise. During the quarter, total contract value of deal signing was USD270m, taking the total deal signing in the last four quarters to USD1bn.
Valuation and outlook
The stock is currently trading at FY15e and FY16e P/E ratio of 19x and 15x, respectively. We expect the company's re-rating to sustain over the next few quarters as the company continued to grow faster than its peers. Therefore, we retain our Buy rating on the company with a target price of INR2,850 per share, or 16x FY16 EPS. Quarterly financials INRm
2QFY15 1QFY15
QoQ (%)
2QFY14
YoY (%)
Antique
Var(%)
900
855
5.3
758
18.7
886
1.5
Net Sales
54,879
51,215
7.2
47,715
15.0
53,685
2.2
EBITDA
10,973
9,284
18.2
11,110
(1.2)
10,537
4.1
9,548
7,792
22.5
9,888
(3.4)
9,034
5.7
7,305
(1.5)
Net Sales USD mn
EBIT Recurring Profit (exc. Satyam nos) Margins (%)
Jun-14
Oct-14 NIFTY
7,196
6,307
14.1
7,183
0.2
2QFY15
1QFY15
QoQ(bps)
2QFY14
YoY(bps)
Antique Var(bps)
EBITDA margin (%)
20.0
18.1
187
23.3
(329)
19.6
37
EBIT Margin (%)
17.4
15.2
218
20.7
(332)
16.8
57
PAT margin- recurring (%)
13.1
12.3
80
15.1
(194)
13.6
(49)
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
30 October 2014 | 5
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Strong revenue growth The company posted a 5.2% QoQ revenue growth to USD900m, ahead of our estimate of USD886m. Growth included revenues from the recently consolidated BASF deal, which added USD1.5m. Adjusting for this, revenue growth stood at 5.1% QoQ, which is the highest among all Tier-I players - TCS: 3.6%, Infosys: 3.1%, Wipro: 1.8% and HCL Technologies: 1.9%. On a constant currency basis, revenue growth stood at 6.2% QoQ. Both telecom and enterprise saw strong seasonal revenue growth of 7.3% and 3.1% respectively. Organic revenue growth higher than Tier I peers
800
4
700 3
600
2
500
Revenue (USDm)
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
0 4QFY13
300 3QFY13
1 2QFY13
400
6 5 4 3 2 1
QoQ grow th (%)
Revenue (USDm)
Source: Company, Antique
0 Tech Mahindra
5
7
HCL Tech
900
4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Wipro
6
Infosys
1,000
TCS
5.2% QoQ revenue growth during 2QFY15
QoQ revenue grow th (%)
Source: Company, Antique
Robust telecom growth Tech Mahindra witnessed strong 7.3% QoQ growth in the telecom vertical, aided by traction across accounts and increased realisation from the BASE deal. The management said traction in network management has been improving and full revenue realisation from the BASE deal is likely to begin in 2HFY15. The company has an edge over its peers on account of its strong presence in this area. With ~35% revenue market share in the telecom vertical, it has maintained its dominance in 1HFY15 by growing at 26% YoY, which is much higher than its peers - TCS: 13.5%, Infosys: 12%, and Wipro: 11.8%. 7.3% QoQ growth in telecom in 2QFY15
Growth in telecom highest among its peers
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
0.1 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 2QFY13
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
1,000
30 25
800 700 600
20 13.5
12.0
500
11.8
15
400 10
300 200
5
100 0
0 TCS
Telecom revenue (USDm) QoQ grow th in telecom revenue (%) Source: Company, Antique
25.8
900
Infosys 1HFY14
1HFY15
Wipro
Tech Mahindra
YoY grow th (%)
Source: Company, Antique
Momentum in enterprise continues The enterprise business (erstwhile Satyam), which constitutes 48% of revenues, continues to see robust growth. In 2Q, it grew 3.1% QoQ. The management said the business has been seeing good traction. We expect enterprise revenues to see strong growth, given the significant deal closures over the last one year.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
30 October 2014 | 6
3.1% QoQ enterprise growth in 2QFY15 8%
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
Enterprise revenue (USDm)
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
-1%
QoQ grow th in enterprise revenue (%)
Source: Company, Antique
Healthy pipeline Revenue visibility remains high as the company has signed deals worth USD270m. It bagged three large US manufacturing deals during the quarter. The management said at any point in time there are 8-10 large deals being worked on, and that deals are likely to be signed going forward. We expect 17% revenue CAGR over FY14-16e. US revenues up 10% QoQ The management was positive on the US IT spending outlook. Growth in the US has been ticking upwards on account of: 1) Increased investments in IT; 2) Shift of manufacturing back to the US; and 3) Growth in telecom spending in both over-the-top and traditional operators. Persistently strong European growth 500
35
450
30
400 350
25
300 250
20
200
15
150
10
100
5
50
0
0 1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
Revenues from US (USDm)
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
YoY grow th (%)
Source: Company, Antique
Margins higher-than-expected in 2QFY15 In 1QFY15, EBITDA margins came in at 18.1%, a decline of 306bps QoQ. While margins faced headwinds due to INR appreciation (50bps) and lower utilisation (50bps), there were multiple headwinds, which included visa costs (100bps), British Telecom amortisation (30bps), and transition costs involved with a particular deal (80bps). In 2QFY15, EBITDA margins expanded 187bps to 20%, led by: 1) Lower visa costs; 2) INR depreciation; 3) Increased utilisation to 73% in 2QFY15 from 72% in 1QFY15; and 4) Selling, general, and administration leverage.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
30 October 2014 | 7
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
EBITDA margins expand 187bps QoQ 12,000
24 23
10,000
22
8,000
21
6,000
20 19
4,000
18 17
2,000
16
EBITDA (INRm)
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
15 1QFY13
0
EBITDA margin (%)
Source: Company, Antique
2QFY15 PAT growth of 14% QoQ The company reported a recurring PAT growth of 14% QoQ to INR7,196m. This was lower than our estimate of INR7,305m, led by: 1) Large forex losses; and 2) Higher effective tax rate at 28% in 2QFY15 versus 27% in 1QFY15. PAT growth of 14% QoQ 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8
8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
PAT (INRm) Source: Company, Antique
Net profit margin (%)
2QFY15
1QFY15
4QFY14
3QFY14
2QFY14
1QFY14
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
0
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
30 October 2014 | 8
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Tech Mahindra Financials (Consolidated) Profit and loss account (INRm)
Cash flow statement (INRm)
Year ended 31st Mar 2012
2013* 2014* 2015e* 2016e*
Year ended 31st Mar 2012
Revenues
143,320 186,650 220,278
PBT
52,893
252,747
Expenses
45,703
112,688
146,477
177,034
199,176
EBITDA
7,190
30,632
40,173
43,245
53,571
Depreciation
1,613
3,896
5,221
6,000
6,824
EBIT
5,577
26,736
34,952
37,245
46,747
Other income
2013* 2014* 2015e* 2016e*
7,537
24,735
44,616
39,877
50,218
(452)
3,896
5,221
6,000
6,824
Interest expense
1,026
-
-
-
-
Interest / Dividend Recd
(110)
-
-
-
-
1,361
-
(186)
158
1
226
(330)
(20,537)
(15,274)
(6,601)
(2,471)
(6,479)
(7,203) (10,614)
(13,057)
Depreciation & amortisation
Other adjustments
982
2,122
1,129
2,796
3,525
1,026
921
797
164
54
Profit before tax
4,854
26,336
39,950
39,877
50,218
CF from operating activities
7,117
21,822
21,911
20,147
37,386
Taxes incl deferred taxation
1,060
6,479
7,203
10,614
13,057
Capital expenditure
(2,958)
(10,250)
(3,045)
(13,595)
(11,000)
(Purchase)/Sale of Investments
(1,325)
488
(60)
-
-
79
-
-
-
-
(4,204)
(9,762)
(3,105) (13,595)
(11,000)
118
-
-
-
Inc/(Dec) in debt
(1,790)
(2,974)
(8,002)
-
-
Dividends & Interest paid
(1,502)
(593)
(4,434)
(6,701)
(8,510)
CF from financing activities
(3,174)
(3,567) (12,435)
(6,701)
(8,510)
Interest expense
Minority Interest Profit after tax EPS - Basic Diluted
36
301
-
-
-
4,437
21,157
25,815
29,263
37,161
29.6
91.4
110.6
125.3
159.2
Tax paid
Income from investments CF from investing activities Inc/(Dec) in share capital
Balance sheet (INRm) Year ended 31st Mar 2012 Share capital
(Inc)/Dec in working capital
2013* 2014* 2015e* 2016e*
1,275
2,316
2,335
2,335
Reserves & surplus
39,233
66,214
89,469 112,031
140,682
Net cash flow
(261)
8,494
6,371
(149)
17,876
Networth
40,508
68,530
91,804
114,366
143,017
Opening balance
2,679
30,960
34,629
33,202
38,631
0
1,344
1,438
1,438
1,438
Closing balance
2,418
34,629
33,202
38,631
56,506
11,266
8,526
525
525
525
3,757
Minority Interest Debt Deferred Revenue and others
2,335
-
Growth indicators (%)
4,295
2,242
3,757
3,757
Capital employed
56,069
80,647
97,524 120,086
148,737
Gross fixed assets
14,505
56,743
62,383
73,383
84,383
Revenue
Accumulated depreciation
7,680
34,425
39,646
45,646
52,470
Net assets
6,825
22,318
22,737
27,737
Capital work in progress and others 1,671
2,595
157
2,595
Investments
#VALUE!
30.2
18.0
14.7
EBITDA
(10.5)
#VALUE!
31.1
7.6
23.9
31,913
PAT
(22.8)
#VALUE!
22.0
13.4
27.0
2,595
EPS
(34.0)
208.5
21.0
13.4
27.0
35,876
2,585
2,525
2,525
2,525
98,799
121,783
147,486
176,963
110
98
98
98
Debtors Cash & bank balances Deffered Tax assests Loans & advances and others
2 13,172 2,418 998
40,225 34,629 3,477
43,486 33,202 3,830
61,557 38,631 3,830
56,506
P/BV
3,830
20,358
41,167
43,370
45,897
45,417
49,508
60,087
65,087
Current Liabilities
9,730
29,214
32,746
37,746
42,746
3,392
16,203
16,762
22,341
22,341
Net current assets
11,697
53,382
72,275
87,399
111,876
Application of funds
56,069
80,647
97,524 120,086
148,738
Per share data No. of shares (m)
127
2013* 2014* 2015e* 2016e* 128
233
233
233
BVPS (INR)
318
296
393
490
613
CEPS (INR)
91.1
108.2
132.9
151.0
188.4
4.0
0.0
16.6
25.1
31.8
DPS (INR) Source: Company, Antique
* including Satyam and hence YoY growth not comparable
Year ended 31st Mar 2012
70,631
8,229
Year ended 31st Mar 2012
Valuation (x) PE
Current liabilities & provisions13,122 Other liabilities & provisions
2013* 2014* 2015e* 2016e*
7.1
Current assets, loans & adv. 24,819 Inventory
Year ended 31st Mar 2012
EV/EBITDA Dividend Yield (%)
2013* 2014* 2015e* 2016e*
80.9
46.9
21.7
19.1
15.1
7.5
5.7
6.1
4.9
3.9
78.3
46.4
13.1
12.1
9.4
0.2
-
0.7
1.0
1.3
Financial ratios Year ended 31st Mar 2012
2013* 2014* 2015e* 2016e*
RoE (%)
12.0
36.3
32.2
28.4
RoCE (%)
12.1
34.0
35.5
33.0
28.9 34.2
Debt/Equity (x)
0.28
0.12
0.01
0.00
0.00
EBIT/Interest (x)
25.9
4.0
2.7
0.5
0.1
Margins (%) Year ended 31st Mar 2012
2013* 2014* 2015e* 2016e*
EBIDTA
16.7
21.4
21.5
19.6
EBIT
14.0
18.7
18.7
16.9
18.5
PAT
15.4
14.8
13.8
13.3
14.7
Source: Company, Antique
* including Satyam and hence YoY growth not comparable
21.2
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
30 October 2014 | 9
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
2QFY15 RESULTS REVIEW
Current Reco
: BUY
Previous Reco
: BUY
CMP
: INR3,046
Target Price
: INR3,438
Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Limited
Valuation comfort, robust pipeline instils confidence
Potential Return : 13% Dr Reddy's Laboratories' 1QFY15 results were below our expectations:
Topline at INR35.9bn was 4.7% lower-than-expected, due to lower sales in Russia and the US. Rest of the World and domestic formulations' business growth was robust
Gross margins remained steady at 58.5%, despite lower contribution from Russia and the US. The former was aided by improvement in gross margins of the pharmaceutical services and active ingredients (PSAI) business
EBITDA margin, at 22.7%, was affected by increase in R&D expenses and lower sales. R&D expense stood at 11.5% of sales, which increased 250bps YoY and 50bps QoQ Adjusted PAT stood at INR5,741m, in line with expectations
Hitesh Mahida
+91 22 4031 3429
[email protected]
Market data Sensex
:
27,098
Sector
:
Pharma
Market Cap (INRbn)
:
518.6
Muted growth in global generics
Market Cap (USDbn)
:
8.5
O/S Shares (m)
:
170.3
52-wk HI/LO (INR)
:
3357/2247
Avg Daily Vol ('000)
:
203
Bloomberg
:
DRRD IN
Source: Bloomberg
Valuation EPS (INR)
FY14
FY15e
FY16e
109.9
142.9
176.9
27.7
21.3
17.2
8.1
6.6
5.2
17.3
14.4
11.6
21
23
29
PE (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) DPS (INR) Source: Bloomberg
Returns (%) 1m
3m
6m
12m
Absolute
(5)
10
14
25
Relative
(7)
5
(5)
(3)
Source: Bloomberg
Shareholding pattern Promoters
:
26%
FII
:
38%
DII
:
5%
Others
:
31%
Growth in the global generic business was lower at 8.7% YoY, driven by India and the RoW markets. Sales for the latter almost doubled during the quarter, at 94.8% YoY, driven by Venezuela. Domestic sales posted robust growth of 14.1% YoY. Our channel checks suggest that domestically the company has become slightly more aggressive in terms of new product introductions. US generic business grew by only 7.9% YoY, as lack of ANDA approvals, pricing pressure in older products, and channel consolidation affected growth. We expect growth to pick-up from 3QFY15, with recent launches of Xopenex and Sirolimus. Long-term US growth will continue to remain robust, as the pipeline of 72 pending approvals consists of high-value and limited competition ANDAs. DRL will also be filing its first NDA in the US before FY15-end. It has also bought Habiterol patch from Novartis, which will enhance its OTC sales in US. Performance in the CIS was affected due to ongoing crisis in Ukraine and Russia. Business in the latter posted a decline of 11% YoY. However, growth in RUB terms was flat. Recovery seen in PSAI business performance Its PSAI business recovered, posting flat growth during the quarter. The business has started showing an improvement in gross margins, posting a sequential improvement of 452bps. It should start posting growth from 3QFY15, resulting in consistent margin improvement. The management has guided for higher growth in the PSAI segment in 2HFY15.
Valuation and outlook At the current market price of INR3,046 per share, the stock is trading at reasonable valuations of 21.3x FY15e and 17.2x FY16e EPS. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of INR3,438 per share, at 20xFY16e EPS. Post results, we are not majorly tweaking our earnings estimates. US growth should continue to improve, with niche ANDA launches from 2HFY15-16. Improvement in domestic growth and recovery in the PSAI business pares risk in the stock. Conditions in Russia and CIS region are temporary, and long-term regional growth drivers are in place for DRL.
Source: Bloomberg
Price performance vs Nifty 130 120 110 100 90 80 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Dr. Reddy's Labs Source: Bloomberg
NIFTY
Quarterly financials 2QFY15
2QFY14
YoY (%)
1QFY15
QoQ (%)
2QFY15e
Variance
TTotal operating income 35,879
33,575
6.9
35,175
2.0
37,639
(4.7)
8,456
(3.5)
8,162
(0.1)
8,845
(7.8)
25.2 (245bps)
23.2
(47bps)
23.5
(77bps)
5,319
7.9
5,779
(0.7)
EBITDA EBITDA (%) APAT Source: Company, Antique
8,157 22.7 5,741
6,903
(16.8)
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
30 October 2014 | 10
Quarterly sales break-up:
Total operating income Material costs
2QFY15
2QFY14
YoY (%)
1QFY15
QoQ (%)
2QFY15e
Variance (%)
35,879
33,575
35,175
6.9
2.0
37,639
(4.7)
14,893
14,106
14,331
% of sales Manufacturing and other expenditure
41.5
42.0
40.7
12,829
11,013
12,682
% of sales
35.8
32.8
36.1
8,157
8,456
8,162
(3.5)
(0.1)
8845
(7.8)
EBITDA (%)
22.7
25.2
23.2
(245bps)
(47bps)
23.5
(77bps)
Depreciation and amortisation
1,957
1,733
1,872
5,779
(0.7)
EBITDA
Interest EBT
(421)
(291)
(481)
6,621
7,014
6,771
265
637
0
Other income Exceptional items PBT
0
0
0
6,886
7,651
6,771
Provision for tax
1,196
792
1505
Effective tax rate
17.4
10.4
22.2
Minority interest
51
44
53
Reported PAT
5,741
6,903
5,319
(16.8)
7.9
Adjusted PAT
5,741
6,903
5,319
(16.8)
7.9
Source: Company, Antique
Quarterly sales break-up INRm
2QFY15
2QFY14
YoY (%)
1QFY15
QoQ (%)
Global generics
28,869
26,548
8.7
29,002
(0.5)
North America
14,293
13,244
7.9
16,468
(13.2)
Europe
1,434
1,761
(18.6)
1,459
(1.7)
Russia and other CIS
4,798
5,516
(13.0)
4,861
(1.3)
India
4,799
4,207
14.1
3,999
20.0
RoW
3,545
1,820
94.8
2,215
60.0
PSAI
6,392
6,403
(0.2)
5,537
15.4
North America
1,298
944
37.5
547
137.3
Europe
1,493
2,358
(36.7)
2,681
(44.3)
India
2,020
1,071
88.6
775
160.6
RoW
1,581
2,030
(22.1)
1,534
3.1
618
624
(1.0)
634
(2.5)
35,879
33,575
6.9
35,173
2.0
QoQ (bps)
Proprietary products Total Source: Company, Antique
Segmental gross margins (%) 2QFY15
2QFY14
1QFY15
YoY (bps)
Global generics
65.6
68.2
66.5
(265)
(92)
PSAI
26.8
15.7
22.3
1,109
452
Proprietary products
42.9
49.0
38.5
(611)
440
Source: Company, Antique
Source: Bloomberg, Antique
Oct-14
Jun-14
Feb-14
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Oct-13
Jun-13
Feb-13
Oct-12
Jun-12
Feb-12
Oct-11
Jun-11
Feb-11
Oct-10
Jun-10
Feb-10
Oct-09
Jun-09
Feb-09
Oct-08
Jun-08
Feb-08
Oct-07
Jun-07
Feb-07
Oct-06
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED 30 October 2014 | 11
P/E band: Inexpensive valuations 32x
27x
22x
17x
12x
7x
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
30 October 2014 | 12
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Financials Profit and loss account (INRm) Year ended 31 Mar
2012
Net Sales Material costs R&D costs
2013
Revenue Mix (INRm) 2014 2015e
2016e
Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
97,086
116,818 132,807 154,287
179,271
Formulations
70,243
82,125 104,434
51,970
64,559
66,883
75,601
86,588
North America
31889
37846
55303
68250
80908
5,952
7,915
12,632
16,972
20,616
India
12931
14560
15713
17968
20509
Other expenditure
15,912
19,287
22,130
25,149
28,325
Operating expenses
73,834
91,761 101,645
117,721
135,529
EBITDA
23,252
25,057
36,566
43,742
Depreciation EBIT
31,162
5,181
5,502
6,475
7,631
8,111
18,071
19,555
24,687
28,936
35,632 2,672
Other income
1,671
2,191
2,112
2,429
Interest
1,056
1,003
1,267
970
673
PBT
18,686
20,743
25,532
30,395
37,631
Tax
5,035
6,379
6,831
6,079
7,526
APAT
13,651
14,364
18,701
24,316
30,105
Net profits
13,651
14,364
18,701
24,316
30,105
80.2
84.4
109.9
142.9
176.9
AEPS
Balance sheet (INRm) Year ended 31 Mar Share capital
2012
2013
2014 2015e
2016e
848
849
851
851
851
Reserves & surplus
49,042
62,842
77,801
98,131
123,254
Net Worth
49,890
63,691
78,652
98,982
124,105
0
0
0
0
0
32,307
31,645
41,362
31,660
21,958
1,420
2,422
2,422
2,422
96,756 122,436 133,064
148,485
Minority interest Total borrowings Other liabilities Total liabilities
686 82,883
RoW Russia & CIS Europe PSAI
2014 2015e 125,371
2016e 146,717
3904
5533
7359
11480
14350
13260
16469
19089
21060
24485
8259
7716
6970
6614
6464
23,812
30,702
23,974
24,356
27,702
3,991
4,399
4,560
4,852
116,818 132,807 154,287
179,271
Others
3,031
Total
97,086
Cash flow statement (INRm) Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
13651
14364
18701
24316
30105
Depn and w/o
5181
5502
6475
7631
8111
Change in working cap
3215
4513
7335
7599
8116
CF from operations (a)
15,624
16,066
19,035
24,347
30,099
Capital expenditure
10,005
11,039
19,017
8,051
7,985
Chg in investments
2,070
(109)
8,698
0
0
0
3,315
6,622
0
0
Net profit
Others CF from investing (b)
2014 2015e
2016e
(7,935)
(14,463)
(16,941)
(8,051)
(7,985)
Free cash flow (a+b)
7,689
1,603
2,094
16,296
22,114
Debt
8,616
(662)
9,717
(9,702)
(9,702)
Dividend (incl. tax)
2,712
2,984
3,585
3,986
4,981
255
2,078
(5,890)
0
0
6,159
(1,568)
242 (13,688)
(14,683)
13,848
35
Others CF from financing (c) Net chg in cash (a+b+c)
2,336
2,609
7,431
2014 2015e
2016e
Growth indicators (%)
Gross block
88,423
100,894
119,176
127,176
135,176
Less: Acc. depreciation
-54,306
-60,388
-72,768
-80,399
-88,509
Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
34,117
40,506
46,408
46,777
46,667
Revenue
30.8
20.3
13.7
16.2
CWIP
7,085
5,653
6,388
6,439
6,424
EBITDA
57.2
7.8
24.4
17.3
19.6
Deferred tax asset
1,340
1,742
1,917
1,917
1,917
PAT
47.5
5.2
30.2
30.0
23.8
10668
10668
10668
AEPS
47.5
5.2
30.2
30.0
23.8
94,915 108,880
128,661
2014 2015e
2016e
Net block
Investments Current assets
2079
1970
68,621
85,001
16.2
Inventories
19,433
21,707
24,188
27,899
31,925
Valuation (x)
Debtors
25,368
31,804
33,253
38,961
44,806
Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
Cash and bank balances
16,061
20,171
23,006
25,615
33,046
PE (X)
58.9
39.6
27.7
21.3
429
1,215
1,157
1,157
1,157
P/BV (X)
12.8
10.4
8.1
6.6
5.2
7,330
10,104
13,311
15,249
17,728
EV/EBITDA (X)
22.9
21.1
17.3
14.4
11.6
25,058
30,861
29,140
32,897
37,131
EV/Sales (X)
5.5
4.5
4.1
3.4
2.8
5,301
7,255
8,720
8,720
8,720
Dividend Yield (%)
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Net current assets
38,262
46,885
57,055
67,263
82,810
Total Assets
82,883
96,756 122,436 133,064
148,485
2014 2015e
2016e
Other current assets Loans & Advances Current liabilities Provisions
Per share data Year ended 31 Mar No.of Shares (Mn)
2012
2013
170
170
2014 2015e 170
170
2016e
Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
RoE
27.4
22.6
23.8
24.6
24.3
RoCE
17.7
15.4
16.8
18.3
20.4
Debt/Equity (x)
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.2
EBIT/Interest (x)
17.1
19.5
19.5
29.8
53.0
2014 2015e
2016e
294
375
462
582
729
CEPS (INR)
111
117
148
188
225
16
18
21
23
29
Source: Company, Antique
Financial ratios
170
BVPS (INR) DPS (INR)
17.2
Margins (%) Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
EBITDA
23.9
21.4
23.5
23.7
EBIT
18.6
16.7
18.6
18.8
19.9
APAT
14.1
12.3
14.1
15.8
16.8
Source: Company Antique
24.4
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
2QFY15 RESULTS REVIEW
Current Reco
: BUY
Previous Reco
: BUY
CMP
: INR57
Target Price
: INR70
Dish TV India Limited
Broader trends intact; Festival driven expenses weigh on margins
Potential Return : 22%
Jay Gandhi
+91 22 4031 3437
[email protected]
Market data Sensex
:
27,098
Sector
:
Media
Market Cap (INRbn)
:
61.1
Market Cap (USDbn)
:
1.0
O/S Shares (m)
:
1,065.0
52-wk HI/LO (INR)
:
65/43
Avg Daily Vol ('000)
:
1,612
Bloomberg
:
DITV IN
Source: Bloomberg
Valuation FY14 EPS (INR)
FY15e 2016e
(1.5)
1.0
PE (x)
nm
58
20
P/BV (x)
nm
nm
nm
11.6
8.9
7
-
1.98
12m
EV/EBITDA (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
-
2.9
Source: Bloomberg
Returns (%) 1m
3m
6m
Absolute
6
(4)
18
13
Relative
5
(7)
(2)
(13)
Source: Bloomberg
Shareholding pattern Promoters
:
65%
FII
:
12%
DII
:
3%
Others
:
20%
Source: Bloomberg
Price performance vs Nifty 140 120 100 80 Oct-13 Feb-14 Dish TV Source: Bloomberg
Jun-14
30 October 2014 | 13
Oct-14 NIFTY
Dish TV's 2QFY15 revenues continued to remain healthy. However, margins were marginally weaker-than-expected. Revenues were in line with estimates and grew 13.5% YoY to INR6.7bn. Subscription revenues continued to remain healthy at 15% YoY to INR6.1bn, in line with our estimate. The primary drivers for subscription are: 1) Healthy growth in net subscriber base, which grew by 378,000 to 12m; 2) Higher average revenues per user (ARPU) at INR172 vs INR170 in 1QFY15; and 3) Increased traction in seeding of high-definition (HD) set-top boxes. Higher selling and distribution expenses surrounding the festive season dragged EBITDA margins lower-than-estimated at 24.1% (Antique estimate: 24.8%). EBITDA came in at INR1.6bn. Recently, the company changed its recognition of lease rental/activation fees to upfront basis as against five-years earlier, in line with the industry. Consequently, revenues and EBITDA are not comparable to prior years. The company continued to drive improvement in its balance sheet. It has repaid debt of ~INR3,750m this quarter, which now stands at INR13.8bn. The management sees the same reducing to INR11.5-12bn by the year-end. It also generated a free cash flow of INR110m during the quarter. The management is seeing good traction for its new offering - Zing, which is focused on regional markets located in Phase III and IV locations. Net subscriber additions stood at 378,000 for the quarter as against an average of 170,000 in the previous four quarters. It has guided for net additions of 1.2-1.5m versus 0.8m reported in FY14. Content cost was in check and flattish YoY. The management retained its stance of single-digit hike in content costs for FY15. While 2Q was marginally weak from a margin stand point, broader trends are intact in our view. We retain our Buy recommendation with a DCFled target price of INR70 per share. 2Q subscription revenues up 15% YoY Subscription revenues rose 15% YoY and 5% sequentially to INR6.1bn, in line with our estimate. Net subscriber additions stood at 378,000 as against an average 170,000 in the last four quarters. The company posted average revenue per user of INR172 vs INR170 in 1QFY15, led by: 1) Healthy growth in the net subscriber base, which grew 378,000 to 12.1m; 2) Higher ARPUs at INR172 vs INR170 in 1QFY15; and 3) Increased traction in seeding of HD boxes. The management said full impact of the August price hike is expected to be realised in the forthcoming quarter. Festival-related expenses drag margins down, expansion should kick in Dish TV reported EBITDA margins of 24.1% during the quarter, registering a sequential dip of 40bps, led by increased selling and distribution expenses in lieu of the festive season. Margins are expected to improve due to higher ARPUs and increased traction in the seeding of HD boxes. Content cost remained in check and declined 4% sequentially to INR1.9bn. The management sees a low single-digit increase in content cost for FY15e.
Valuations and outlook
The management sees strong subscriber additions in FY15e. It expects to add a total of 1.21.5m subscribers. Free cash flow stood at INR110m for the quarter vs INR210bn in 1Q. It repaid debt to the tune of INR3,750m this quarter. The company's debt as at 2QFY15-end stood at INR13.8bn. The same is expected to be pared down to INR11.5-12bn by year-end. Our DCF-based target price of INR70 per share factors in 4% CAGR ARPU expansion; ~2m per year gross subscriber additions; and ~8% long-term churn. Quarterly financials INRm 2QFY15e Income from sales and services 6,706 Other operating income 18 Total Income from operations 6724 Cost of Goods and Services 3,408 Programming and other costs 1,929 Total Expenditure 5,100 EBITDA 1,624 EBIT 104 PAT reported (151) Source: Company, Antique
1QFY15 6,389 18 6407 3,392 2,014 4,836 1,571 118 (161)
Chg QoQ (%) 4.9 2.3 4.9 0.5 (4.2) 5.5 3.4 (11.7) 6.1
2QFY14 5,897 29 5926 3,187 1,865 4,447 1,479 (25) (160)
Chg YoY (%) 13.7 (37.9) 13.5 6.9 3.4 14.7 9.8 (509.0) 5.8
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
30 October 2014 | 14
Revenues up 13.5% YoY Revenues for the quarter grew 13.5% over the same period last fiscal to INR6.7bn, underpinned by strong subscription revenues, which grew 15% YoY to INR6.1bn. Both subscription and overall revenue from operations were in line with estimates. Subscription revenues continued its healthy growth, underpinned by increased subscriber base (12m net subscribers) and higher ARPUs INR172 vs INR170 in 1QFY15. Lease rentals saw a sequential decline of 17% YoY to INR190m. However, this was primarily an accounting change. Around INR850m of previous rental revenues will be amortised over the next five-to-seven quarters. Margins dip 80bps YoY, expansion likely to continue Dish TV reported EBITDA margins of 24.1% during the quarter, registering a sequential dip of 40bps and 80bps YoY, led by increased selling and distribution expenses in lieu of the festive season. For 2Q, content cost was flat sequentially at INR1.9bn. The management seems confident of keeping a tab on content costs. It sees a low single-digit increase in content costs for FY15e, and expects costs, as a percentage of revenues, to decline by at least 100-150bps YoY. This coupled with a higher EBITDA margin for Zing and increased traction in seeding of HD boxes is expected to trigger operating lever in the business and lead to margin expansion in FY15e. EBITDA margins dip, to gain steam ahead 8
35%
7
30%
6
25%
5
20%
4
15%
3
Revenue (INRbn)
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
0% Dec-10
0 Sep-10
5% Jun-10
1 Mar-10
10%
Dec-09
2
EBITDA margins
Source: Company, Antique
Although Dish TV reported a free cash flow (FCF) of INR110m, which is lower than the past four quarters, it marks the company's focus on increasing subscriber base. FCF trends (INRm) FCF
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
484
667
583
1393
FY14 1QFY15 3127
210
2QFY15 110
Source: Company, Antique
Subscriber additions The company added 378,000 subscribers during the quarter as against an average 170,000 in the previous four quarters, closing the quarter with a net subscriber base of 12.1m. It has guided for 1.2-1.5m net subscriber additions this fiscal.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
30 October 2014 | 15
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Net subscriber and churn trends 14.0
1.6%
1.8% 1.6% 1.4%
12.0 1.1%
1.2%
0.9% 0.8%
0.8% 0.8%
6.0
0.6%
0.5%
1.0% 0.8%
0.4%
0.6% 0.4% 0.2%
11.2
11.0
10.9
10.7
10.5
10.0
9.8
9.6
9.5
9.2
8.9
7.7
2.0
8.5
4.0
0.7%
12.1
1.0% 1.0%
11.7
8.0
1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9%
11.4
10.0
-
Net Subscriber Base (m)
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
0.0%
Churn per month (%)
Source: Company, Antique
ARPUs improved to INR172 this quarter from INR170 in 1Q, led by: 1) Increased traction in HD boxes, which now constitutes 15% of incremental additions vs 12% earlier; and 2) 5-7% price hike undertaken in August on all packs. Full impact of the price hike is expected to flow through in the forthcoming quarter. ARPU on the rise: 175 165
172
163 Mar-14
Sep-14
166 Dec-13
170
165 Sep-13
Jun-14
165
157 Mar-13
Jun-13
160
151 Mar-12
Dec-12
152 Dec-11
159
152 Sep-11
156
150
135
Jun-11
145
Sep-12
155
Jun-12
125
Source: Company, Antique
Subscriber acquisition cost moderate, to taper down further Subscriber acquisition cost for the quarter declined 9% sequentially to INR1,650. The management said it is working with vendors to pare costs further, and consequently the subsidy per box. We expect SAC to moderate further as Zing's contribution to the business increases. Subscriber churn remains stable QoQ at 0.7% per month, which translates to a quarterly churn of 2.1% for 2QFY15.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
30 October 2014 | 16
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
SAC moderates, to taper going forward 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500
1,800
1,650
Jun-14
Sep-14
1,800 Mar-14
2,145 Jun-12
1,889
2,127 Mar-12
Dec-13
2,124 Dec-11
1,849
2,232 Sep-11
1,828
2,058 Jun-11
Jun-13
2,224 Mar-11
1,996
2,142 Dec-10
Mar-13
2,083 Sep-10
2,201
2,147 Jun-10
Dec-12
2,383 Mar-10
2,273
2,477 Dec-09
Sep-12
2,635
500
Sep-09
1,000
Sep-13
0
SAC Source: Company, Antique
Zing: Dish TV's vernacular content offering has received a healthy response. The service is now available across Odisha, West Bengal, Tripura, parts of Assam, and most parts of Maharashtra. It enjoys a higher gross margin than the mother brand. The management is confident of capturing a healthy share with Zing, once Phase III/IV digitisation kicks in. Dish TV currently enjoys a 25% share in Phase III/IV market. The company is well placed to tap in to these markets, with a leaner balance sheet vs peers, increased free cash flow, and an existing inventory of 0.8m STBs. 2QFY15 results: At a glance INR m
2QFY15e
1QFY15
Chg QoQ (%)
2QFY14
Chg YoY (%)
Antique
6,706
6,389
4.9
5,897
13.7
6,624
1.2
18
18
2.3
29
(37.9)
18
(1.5)
6,724
6,407
4.9
5,926
13.5
6,642
1.2
Income from sales and services Other operating income Total income from operations
Variance
Cost of goods and services
3,408
3,392
0.5
3,187
6.9
3,501
(2.7)
Programming and other costs
1,929
2,014
(4.2)
1,865
3.4
2,073
(7.0)
1,479
1,378
7.3
1,322
11.8
1,428
3.6 (5.0)
Other cost of goods and services Personnel cost
252
256
(1.7)
223
12.6
265
296
269
9.8
300
(1.4)
279
5.9
1,145
920
24.5
737
55.4
947
20.9
607
541
12.2
430
41.4
563
7.9
Total expenditure
5,100
4,836
5.5
4,447
14.7
4,992
2.2
EBITDA
1,624
1,571
3.4
1,479
9.8
1,650
(1.6)
EBIT
104
118
(11.7)
(25)
(509.0)
146
(28.8)
Interest
425
395
7.7
345
23.2
325
30.8
Administrative and other expenses Selling and distribution expenses Commission
Other income
170
116
46.4
211
(19.2)
112
52.0
PBT
(151)
(161)
6.1
(160)
5.8
(67)
126.1
Reported PAT
(151)
(161)
6.1
(160)
5.8
(67)
126.1
Source: Company, Antique
Margins (%)
2QFY15e
1QFY15
QoQ(bps)
2QFY14
YoY(bps)
Antique
Var(bps)
24.1
24.5
(36.8)
25.0
(81.0)
24.8
(69.6)
EBITDA EBIT
1.6
1.8
(29.2)
(0.4)
198.2
2.2
(65.4)
PBT
(2.2)
(2.5)
26.4
(2.7)
45.9
(1.0)
(123.8)
PAT
(2.2)
(2.5)
26.4
(2.7)
45.9
(1.0)
(123.8)
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
30 October 2014 | 17
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Operational metrics 2QFY15e
1QFY15
QoQ (%)
2QFY14
YoY (%)
Antique Var(%)
Gross Subscribers (m)
17.8
17.2
4
15.9
12
18
Net Subscribers (m)
12.1
11.7
3
11
10
12
0.9
172.0
170.0
1
165
4
172
(0.2)
ARPU
0.4
Source: Company, Antique
Revenue split 2QFY15e
1QFY15
QoQ (%)
2QFY14
YoY (%)
6,168
5,886
5
5370
15
345
320
8
460
-25
80
70
14
80
0
Other
130.5
65
101
16
726
Total
6724
6407
5
5926
13
Subscription revenue Rental revenue Bandwidth
Source: Company, Antique
As a percentage of revenue 2QFY15e
1QFY15
QoQ(bps)
2QFY14
YoY(bps)
Cost of Goods and Services
51
53
-225
54
-310
Programming and other costs
29
31
-275
31
-278
Source: Company, Antique
EV/EBITDA near the lower-end of the trading band 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000
DISH TV Source: Bloomberg, Antique
4X
06X
08X
10X
12X
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
0
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
30 October 2014 | 18
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Financials Profit and loss account (INRm)
Cash flow statement (INRm)
Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
2014 2015e
Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
Revenues
19,579
21,668
25,090
27,675
32,298
PBT
(1,331)
(660)
(1,576)
1,085
Expenses
14,619
15,874
18,849
19,936
22,895
Depreciation & amortisation
5,219
6,388
5,974
6,054
5,717
EBITDA
4,960
5,794
6,240
7,739
9,403
Interest expense
745
757
676
1,210
1,140
Depreciation & amortisation
5,219
6,276
5,974
6,054
5,717
(Inc)/Dec in working capital
(977)
526
1,977
486
(448)
EBIT
(259)
(481)
267
1,685
3,686
Tax paid
16
(82)
(60)
-
-
Interest expense
1,780
1,284
1,328
1,210
1,140
Others
419
(830)
41
-
-
Other income Profit before tax
707
511
649
610
576
(1,331)
(1,254)
(412)
1,085
3,123
Taxes incl deferred taxation PAT EPS(INR/share)
2016e
Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Networth
Capital expenditure
2016e 3,123
4,089
6,099
7,032
8,835
9,530
(6,032)
(6,980)
(2,986)
(4,680)
(6,201) -
-
0
1
-
-
Inc/(Dec) in investments
688
(1,231)
(435)
-
(1,331)
(1,254)
(412)
1,085
3,123
Income from investments
349
342
438
-
-
(1.3)
(0.6)
(1.5)
1.0
2.9
(4,995)
(7,869)
(2,984)
(4,680)
(6,201)
CF from investing activities Inc/(Dec) in share capital
Balance sheet (INRm) Year ended 31 Mar
CF from operating activities
2014 2015e
2012
2013
1,063
1,065
2014 2015e 1,065
1,065
2016e 1,065
(2,002)
(2,621)
(4,191)
(3,106)
(1,607)
22
18
3
-
-
Inc/(Dec) in debt
2,185
1,895
(3,988)
(2,000)
(700)
Interest expense
(784)
(691)
(625)
(1,210)
(1,140)
-
-
-
-
(1,624)
1,424
1,222
(4,610)
(3,210)
(3,463)
Dividend and dividend tax paid CF from financing activities
(939)
(1,556)
(3,126)
(2,041)
(542)
518
(548)
(562)
945
(134)
Debt
14,031
16,333
15,013
12,095
11,395
Opening balance
3,272
3,919
3,645
3,426
4,371
Capital Employed
13,093
14,777
11,887
10,054
10,853
Closing balance
3,918
3,645
3,083
4,371
4,238
29,267
35,790
40,989
46,895
53,095
2014 2015e
2016e
Gross Fixed Assets
Net cash flow
Accumulated Depreciation
15,063
21,450
27,418
33,472
39,188
Growth indicators (%)
Net Assets
14,204
14,340
13,571
13,423
13,907
Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
Capital work in progress
3,884
6,535
4,226
3,000
3,000
Revenue
36
11
16
10
Investments
1,500
2,782
2,000
2,000
2,000
EBITDA
108
17
8
24
22
69
86
75
85
95
PAT
31
6
67
363
188
EPS
na
na
na
169
188
2014 2015e
2016e
Inventory Debtors
286
304
415
379
442
Cash & Bank balance
3,919
3,645
3,426
4,371
4,238
Loans & advances and others
2,479
3,856
3,989
4,039
4,089
17
Valuation (x)
7,891
7,905
8,874
8,864
2012
2013
Creditors
8,249
10,096
7,312
7,721
7,296
PE
nm
nm
nm
58
20
Other liabilities & provisions
4,999
6,674
8,503
8,603
8,703
P/BV
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
14
12.6
11.6
8.9
7
4
3
3
2
2
Current Assets, Loans & Adv. 6,752
Year ended 31 Mar
Current Liabilities & Prov.
13,247
16,771
15,815
16,325
16,000
EV/EBITDA
Net Current Assets
(6,495)
(8,880)
(7,910)
(7,450)
(7,136)
EV/Sales
Application of Funds
13,093
14,777
11,887
10,973
11,771
Dividend Yield (%) EV (IINR mn)
Per share data Year ended 31 Mar No. of shares (m) BVPS (INR)
2012
2013
1,063
1,065
(0.88)
(1.46)
2014 2015e 1,065 (2.94)
1,065 (1.92)
2016e
-
-
-
-
1.98
71,648
72,942
72,623
68,760
68,194
2012
2013
2014 2015e
2016e
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
(2.0)
(3.3)
2.2
16.8
34.0
Financial ratios
1,065
Year ended 31 Mar
(0.51)
RoE (%)
CEPS (INR)
3.7
4.7
5.2
6.7
8.3
RoCE (%)
DPS (INR)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
Debt/Equity (x)
(14.9)
(10.5)
(4.8)
(5.9)
nm
EBIT/Interest (x)
(0.1)
(0.4)
0.2
1.4
3.2
2.0
2.2
1.9
1.0
0.8
Margins (%) Year ended 31 Mar
Net debt/EBITDA (x)
2012
2013
EBITDA
25.3
26.7
24.9
28.0
29.1
EBIT
(1.3)
(2.2)
1.1
6.1
11.4
PAT
(6.8)
(5.8)
(1.6)
3.9
9.7
Source: Company, Antique
2014 2015e
2016e
Source: Company Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
30 October 2014 | 19
MANAGEMENT MEET UPDATE
Current Reco
: HOLD
Previous Reco
: HOLD
CMP
: INR656
Target Price
: INR641
Cipla Limited
Expected growth on track
Potential Return : -2% We recently met with Cipla’s management. Following are the key takeaways: Changes in the export business model The company has been increasing its front-end in key markets: the US, Europe, and Africa. The management feels legacy partnership model sales will consistently reduce. Europe will witness a change in mix - from partnership to direct marketing - at least 12-18 months prior than the US. Cipla has an adequate sales force to cater to these key markets in the mediumterm. It is also tweaking its partner agreements, with additional milestones added to capture upsides when partners achieve higher-than-expected profits.
Hitesh Mahida
+91 22 4031 3429
[email protected]
Market data Sensex
:
27,098
Sector
:
Pharma
Market Cap (INRbn)
:
527.4
Market Cap (USDbn)
:
8.6
O/S Shares (m)
:
802.9
52-wk HI/LO (INR)
:
659/367
Avg Daily Vol ('000)
:
1,516
Bloomberg
:
CIPLA IN
Source: Bloomberg
Valuation FY14
FY15e
FY16e
EPS (INR)
15.9
18.6
26.1
PE (x)
41.4
35.2
25.1
P/BV (x)
5.8
5.2
4.7
29.3
23.8
17.4
Dividend Yield (%) 0.3
0.5
0.6
12m
EV/EBITDA (x) Source: Bloomberg
Returns (%) 1m
3m
6m
Absolute
6
49
64
57
Relative
5
43
36
21
Source: Bloomberg
Shareholding pattern Promoters
:
FII
:
37% 23%
DII
:
12%
Others
:
28%
Source: Bloomberg
Price performance vs Nifty 160 140 120 100 80 Oct-13 Feb-14 Cipla Source: Bloomberg
Jun-14
Oct-14 NIFTY
Growth in Europe to remain high The management expects to launch its combination inhalers across Europe over the next 1218 months. It launched its generic Advair MDI in Germany and Sweden at a 50% discount to the innovator’s price. Besides gaining positive market share in Advair MDI, it also witnessing a switch from DPI to MDI in these regions, post the generic launch. The generic business has a requisite field force, and the company will add additional employees once sales start to pick-up in Europe. Post the launch of Advair generic in the UK, we expect European sales to witness a significant surge, as the MDI version has a market size of almost USD350-400m. The management is of the view that gaining share in the UK would be far easier than other parts of Europe as market dynamics favour easier generic substitution. US sales to pick-up towards FY15-end The management has been guiding for commencement of direct marketing of its own abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) from 4QFY15. Cipla has acquired 40 ANDAs from its partners, which they plan to gradually rollout. It will launch Nasonex on its own as it does not have a tie-up with any other pharmaceutical company. The management said it would like to directly market their key respiratory ANDAs. Domestic outperformance to continue Cipla was one of the few companies whose performance was not impacted by implementation of the pricing policy. The management said it was proactive in managing marketing in FY14. It targets a growth of at least 1.5-2x that of the overall domestic market. The management have decentralised the decision making process and authorised local zonal heads to aid in quicker decision making domestically. Cipla Medpro margins set to improve The management expects Cipla Medpro’s margins to consistently improve, with new product introductions and a minimal increase in sales force. Cipla Medpro has also signed a deal with Teva, wherein the former will be marketing over 200 products of Teva in South Africa. Some of these products have already been sold by Teva. The management said this deal will significantly push Cipla Medpro sales in the region. The company is only bidding for profitable tenders in Africa. Rest of the World business will be driven by inorganic initiatives The company has recently acquired companies in Sri Lanka, Uganda, Iran, Croatia, and Yemen. The management views these as smaller markets, which can generate close to USD50m sales in the long run, at 85-90% gross margins. The management will continue to evaluate such opportunities in future, with acquisition ticket sizes in the USD15-20m range. It has recently signed partnerships with Gilead for Hepatitis drugs Sofosbuvir mono, Ledipasvir mono, and fixed-dose combination of Ledipasvir/Sofosbuvir for 91 markets. The overall patient population is huge at 100-120m in these countries.
Valuation and outlook We currently have a Hold rating on Cipla with a target price of INR641 per share, at 22x FY16e earnings. There is a high probability of Cipla being the first generic company to launch Advair in the UK, as Mylan had filed for the same in 3QFY14 and it usually takes around three years to receive an approval. We see 9.5% upside to our FY16e earnings in case Cipla is the only generic company to launch Advair MDI in the UK by FY15.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
30 October 2014 | 20
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Financials Profit and loss account (INRm)
Revenue Mix (INRm)
Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
Net Sales
69,081
81,842
100,019
117,249
139,319
Material costs
27,393
29,526
38,748
44,014
51,772
USA
Employee cost
7,725
10,363
15,430
18,630
21,041
Europe
R&D costs
3,238
3,638
5,119
5,822
6,921
Africa
Other expenditure
15,262
17,288
20,376
25,617
28,793
Others
Operating expenses
53,619
60,815
79,673
94,083
108,528
EBITDA
15,462
21,027
20,346
23,166
30,792
3,122
3,305
3,726
4,613
4,953
12,340
17,722
16,620
18,554
25,839
1,848
2,275
2,484
2,956
3,181
238
339
1,457
1,100
569
PBT
13,950
19,658
17,646
20,410
28,451
Tax
3,065
5,443
4,634
4,899
6,828
10,884
14,215
13,012
15,512
21,623
(29)
62
283
565
650
10,914
14,153
12,730
14,947
20,973
13.6
17.6
15.9
18.6
26.1
Depreciation EBIT Other income Interest
APAT
Minority interest & prior period items Net profits AEPS
2014 2015e
2016e
2013
1,606
1,606
Reserves & surplus
74,784
88,581
Net Worth
76,389
90,187 100,504
Minority interest
2014 2015e 1,606
2016e
496
496 4,283
2,332
2,805
3,119
3,119
3,119
Total liabilities
78,856
102,662
116,401 124,530
137,746
Gross block
46,269
53,279
(14,111)
(17,076)
32,158
36,203
40,034
41,421
41,469
3,712
3,674
4,418
4,748
5,098
61,832
67,832
72,832
(21,798) (26,411)
(31,363)
0
0
24,931
24,931
24,931
Investments
12,688
25,324
7,086
7,086
7,086
Current assets
44,893
51,325
56,414
65,657
82,537
Inventories
18,501
23,871
28,953
33,672
38,919
Debtors
15,536
16,688
16,389
19,373
22,264
Cash and bank balances
905
1,430
1,752
3,291
12,033
Other current assets
540
23
351
351
351
9,412
9,313
8,970
8,970
8,970
12,214
11,093
14,208
16,777
19,353
2,432
2,824
3,424
3,686
5,172
30,247
37,408
38,783
45,195
58,013
52
51
1,149
1,149
1,149
78,856
102,662
116,401 124,530
137,746
Current liabilities Provisions Net current assets Others Total Assets
Per share data Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
803
803
803
803
803
BVPS (INR)
95
112
125
140
162
CEPS (INR)
17
22
20
24
32
2
2
2
4
5
No.of Shares (Mn)
DPS (INR) Source: Company, Antique
2014 2015e
2016e
2016e
4,012
5,652
7,829
12,624
14,606
24,792
28,673
33,223
17,797
21,358
23,278
26,316
Exports
45,029
58,545
68,397
82,370
Total
81,842
100,019
117,249
139,319
2016e
Cash flow statement (INRm) Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
2014 2015e
Net profit
10,914
14,153
12,730
14,947
20,973
3,122
3,305
3,726
4,613
4,953
(4,147)
6,636
1,053
4,872
4,076
(29)
62
283
565
650
18,913
13,288
16,822
14,687
21,850 5,350
Depn and w/o Change in working cap Others CF from operations (a) Capital expenditure
4,722
6,972
9,297
6,330
Chg in investments and others
6,780
12,636
(18,239)
-
-
(11,502)
(19,609)
8,942
(6,330)
(5,350)
Debt
CF from financing (c)
8,283
Loans & Advances
10,206
129,848
112,632
496
Others
8,618
Others
12,283
CWIP
6,743
128,242
0
Net block
56,950
8,614
98,898 111,026
9,669
Less: Acc. depreciation
48,852
1,606
0
Other liabilities
41,474
1,606
135
Total borrowings
2014 2015e
36,813
Free cash flow (a+b)
2012
Share capital
2013
Domestic
CF from investing (b)
Balance sheet (INRm) Year ended 31 Mar
Year ended 31 Mar
Dividend (incl. tax)
Net chg in cash (a+b+c)
7,411
(6,321)
25,763
8,357
16,500
(5,275)
9,535
2,614
(4,000)
(4,000)
1,866
1,879
1,879
2,818
3,758
-
-
(26,193)
-
-
7,656 (25,458)
(6,818)
(7,758)
1,539
8,742
2014 2015e
2016e
(7,142) 269
1,335
306
Growth indicators (%) Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
Revenue
11.7
18.5
22.2
17.2
18.8
EBITDA
25.9
36.0
(3.2)
13.9
32.9
PAT
14.0
30.6
(8.5)
19.2
39.4
AEPS
11.7
29.7
(10.1)
17.4
40.3
2012
2013
2014 2015e
2016e
48.3
37.2
41.4
35.2
7.9
6.9
5.8
5.2
4.7
34.7
26.3
29.3
23.8
17.4
EV/Sales (X)
7.6
6.5
5.4
4.5
3.7
Dividend Yield (%)
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.6
2014 2015e
2016e
Valuation (x) Year ended 31 Mar PE (X) P/BV (X) EV/EBITDA (X)
25.1
Financial ratios Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
RoE (%)
15.3
17.0
13.4
14.0
17.3
RoCE (%)
12.7
14.5
11.4
11.7
15.0
Debt/Equity (x)
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
EBIT/Interest (x)
51.8
52.3
11.4
16.9
45.4
2014 2015e
2016e
Margins (%) Year ended 31 Mar
2012
2013
EBITDA
22.4
25.7
20.3
19.8
22.1
EBIT
17.9
21.7
16.6
15.8
18.5
APAT
15.8
17.3
12.7
12.7
15.1
Source: Company Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
30 October 2014 | 21
Valuation Guide Company
Reco
CMP
TP
(INR)
(INR)
Return
M.Cap
M.Cap
(%) (INRbn) ( U S D b n )
Net profit (INRbn) FY14
FY15
FY16
EPS (INR)
PE (x)
FY14
FY15
FY16
(1.8)
(0.4)
1.8
FY14
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY15
FY16
FY14
(25.4) (118.1)
P/BV (x)
FY15
FY16
FY15
RoE (%) RoCE (%) FY15
Absolute (%)
FY15
1m
12m
170
AUTOMOBILES Ashok Leyland
HOLD
46
34
(26)
130
2.1
(4.8)
(1.1)
5.1
25.4
101.2
27.2
12.3
3.5
(5.0)
1.5
11
Bajaj Auto
HOLD
2,551
2,363
(7)
738
12.0
33.5
35.5
42.1
115.7 122.7 145.4
22.1
20.8
17.5
16.7
14.7
12.3
6.8
32.9
48.2
8
19
Bosch
HOLD
14,996
13,965
(7)
471
7.7
8.8
11.4
14.5
281.8 364.7 463.0
53.2
41.1
32.4
39.2
31.5
25.8
6.5
15.9
24.9
(0)
70
Eicher Motors
BUY
12,596
12,613
0
341
5.6
3.9
7.5
12.0
145.7 277.4 442.8
86.5
45.4
28.4
48.7
30.4
19.0
9.2
28.0
29.8
5
224
Exide Industries
BUY
155
179
16
131
2.1
4.9
6.5
8.3
26.9
20.1
15.8
17.7
14.2
11.4
3.1
15.6
20.9
(9)
25
Hero MotoCorp
BUY
3,038
3,151
4
607
9.9
21.1
27.1
36.7
28.8
22.4
16.5
22.1
17.0
12.4
9.9
44.4
61.2
7
46
M&M
HOLD
1,298
1,300
0
806
13.1
38.5
39.8
48.9
58.6
74.5
22.1
21.4
17.4
15.4
13.8
11.0
4.2
19.8
24.5
(5)
45
Maruti Suzuki
BUY
3,205
3,302
3
968
15.8
27.9
35.6
52.0
92.5 117.8 172.3
34.7
27.2
18.6
17.1
13.5
9.4
4.0
14.8
21.8
5
96
Tata Motors
BUY
526
583
11
1,576
50.1
60.9
75.1
10.5
8.6
7.0
5.2
4.5
3.6
2.0
23.4
21.1
5
39
25.7 161.4 196.1 241.7
5.7
7.7
9.8
105.6 135.9 184.0 60.6
Balkrishna Industries Limited
BUY
750
826
10
72
1.2
4.9
5.6
6.7
50.5
58.1
68.8
14.8
12.9
10.9
10.7
8.9
7.3
3.2
26.1
18.4
(3)
167
Ceat Limited
BUY
873
589
(32)
31
0.5
2.8
2.9
3.5
78.1
79.6
98.2
11.2
11.0
8.9
6.4
6.5
5.7
2.3
22.5
22.8
10
362
Apollo Tyres Limited
BUY
217
242
12
110
1.8
9.6
12.2
12.2
19.0
24.2
24.2
11.4
8.9
8.9
6.4
5.4
5.3
1.7
20.7
26.8
6
219
Bharat Forge
BUY
766
917
20
178
2.9
4.2
6.7
9.7
18.0
28.7
41.7
42.7
26.7
18.4
18.9
13.9
10.5
5.6
22.8
20.9
(7)
159
22
FMCG & RETAIL Asian Paints
BUY
646
777
20
620
10.1
12.2
15.7
19.5
12.8
16.4
20.3
50.4
39.4
31.9
30.7
24.2
19.3
14.8
37.5
47.7
3
Colgate
SELL
1,686
1,378
(18)
229
3.7
4.8
5.3
6.2
35.0
38.8
45.9
48.2
43.4
36.7
35.9
30.4
24.3
35.0
80.5
104.0
(3)
36
Dabur India
HOLD
218
193
(11)
383
6.2
9.2
10.5
13.0
5.3
6.0
7.4
41.4
36.1
29.3
33.9
29.1
23.7
11.8
32.6
30.6
(2)
22
Radico Khaitan
BUY
92
136
49
12
0.2
0.9
1.0
1.2
6.8
7.6
8.8
13.5
12.1
10.4
9.6
9.2
8.3
1.4
11.6
11.3
17
(37)
Godrej Consumer
HOLD
940
789
(16)
320
5.2
7.6
8.5
10.7
22.9
25.0
31.6
41.0
37.7
29.8
28.5
25.9
20.3
7.3
19.3
19.6
(5)
9
HUL
BUY
724
861
19
1,566
25.5
35.5
40.0
46.5
16.4
18.5
21.5
44.0
39.2
33.7
34.5
29.4
24.7
41.4
105.6
131.3
(3)
18
ITC
BUY
354
398
12
2,829
46.1
87.9 101.4 122.2
11.0
12.8
15.4
32.1
27.8
23.1
23.1
19.9
16.3
9.4
33.7
43.0
(4)
6
Jyothy Labs
BUY
242
240
(1)
44
0.7
1.1
1.7
1.9
6.0
9.6
10.4
40.3
25.1
23.1
30.7
25.3
18.4
4.3
16.9
7.6
1
30
Marico
HOLD
310
331
7
200
3.3
5.2
5.3
6.2
8.1
8.1
9.7
38.4
38.1
32.1
27.1
23.0
18.8
10.9
28.6
30.0
(0)
51
Nestle India
HOLD
6,129
5,337
(13)
591
9.6
11.2
11.6
14.7
117.6 120.0 152.5
52.1
51.1
40.2
30.7
30.8
25.2
19.8
39.0
51.7
3
9
Titan Company
BUY
412
420
2
366
6.0
7.6
9.2
12.4
8.6
10.4
14.0
48.1
39.7
29.4
38.4
31.8
22.4
11.3
28.5
32.0
1
61
TBZ
BUY
164
204
24
11
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.9
8.3
8.0
13.6
19.9
20.4
12.1
12.4
11.8
7.5
2.3
11.1
9.1
3
6
2,689
2,755
2
391
6.4
0.5
2.6
5.7
3.4
18.1
39.5
788.9 148.8
68.2
41.3
34.8
25.2
4.6
3.1
7.1
12
4
38
75
95
5
0.1
0.6
0.8
1.1
4.8
6.1
8.7
8.0
6.3
4.4
7.1
6.4
5.3
0.7
11.5
11.2 (14)
(41)
(36)
10
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
14.0
21.8
28.7
41.1
26.4
20.0
20.1
14.0
10.9
4.9
18.7
25.7
8
150
89
United Spirits
HOLD
Tilaknagar Ind
BUY
V- Mart
HOLD
576
366
ABB
HOLD
1,166
1,150
(1)
247
4.0
2.1
3.4
5.8
10.1
16.1
27.1
115.5
72.4
43.0
46.2
34.4
23.0
8.3
11.8
11.6
1
BGR
HOLD
165
125
(24)
12
0.2
1.5
1.7
2.0
20.2
23.9
27.8
8.2
6.9
5.9
6.1
5.1
4.4
0.8
12.7
11.4
9
47
BHEL
BUY
255
315
24
623
10.2
34.6
32.9
38.6
14.2
13.4
15.8
18.0
18.9
16.1
11.8
10.8
8.6
1.8
9.6
9.8
27
83
Crompton Greaves
BUY
181
278
53
114
1.9
2.4
4.4
8.0
3.9
7.0
12.8
46.5
26.0
14.2
18.6
14.7
9.3
0.3
12.5
8.6 (10)
80
Cummins India
BUY
725
811
12
201
3.3
6.2
7.2
9.0
22.3
26.0
32.5
32.5
27.9
22.3
28.8
25.5
20.1
7.3
25.0
25.5
8
Havells India
HOLD
280
212
(24)
175
2.8
4.5
5.6
6.7
7.2
9.0
10.7
39.0
31.2
26.1
21.3
17.7
14.7
1.8
30.5
33.0
6
86
Larsen & Toubro
BUY
1,577
1,800
14
1,464
23.9
49.0
52.8
62.1
52.9
56.9
67.0
29.8
27.7
23.6
22.8
19.6
15.9
3.9
14.1
12.3
8
62
Siemens
BUY
862
1,032
20
307
5.0
5.1
7.7
10.5
14.2
21.5
29.5
60.7
40.1
29.2
31.6
21.8
15.6
6.6
16.5
23.9
4
55
KEC
HOLD
109
90
(17)
28
0.5
0.7
1.7
2.3
3.3
6.5
9.0
33.1
16.9
12.1
9.1
7.1
6.0
2.2
12.8
17.1
2
212
Voltas
HOLD
247
242
(2)
82
1.3
2.2
3.2
4.5
6.8
9.7
13.4
36.4
25.5
18.3
30.8
22.7
15.8
4.1
16.1
14.7
2
183
460
550
19
52
0.8
2.7
3.6
4.4
23.7
32.1
1,512
1,600
6
1,060
17.3
62.8
73.0
80.8
0.9
3.8
3.1
4.1
INDUSTRIALS
84
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Cyient
BUY
HCL Tech
HOLD
39.4
19.4
14.3
11.7
10.7
9.4
7.0
2.8
19.6
23.4
3
82
89.5 103.9 115.1
16.9
14.5
13.1
11.5
10.5
8.9
4.1
31.3
28.2 (12)
40
12.8
13.9
14.9
18.0
13.7
9.9
11.6
9.2
3.7
22.1
21.9
(5)
44
189.8 212.6 244.1
20.5
18.3
15.9
14.4
12.5
10.5
4.0
23.5
22.9
4
17
Hexaware Tech
SELL
191
125
(34)
57
Infosys Ltd.
BUY
3,881
3,900
0
2,229
KPIT
BUY
165
220
33
32
0.5
2.5
2.7
3.5
13.0
13.9
18.4
12.7
11.9
9.0
7.8
7.4
5.4
2.3
19.2
19.3
3
13
MphasiS
HOLD
414
465
12
87
1.4
3.5
7.3
8.9
14.7
34.5
42.2
28.1
12.0
9.8
18.4
7.9
6.6
1.6
13.9
10.3
(3)
(2)
Persistent Sys
HOLD
1,244
1,350
9
50
0.8
2.5
3.0
3.5
63.3
74.0
TCS
BUY
2,506
2,825
13
4,909
Tech Mahindra
BUY
2,397
2,850
19
564
9.2
25.8
29.0
Wipro
HOLD
557
590
6
1,374
22.4
78.4
89.1 103.3
UR: Under Review
36.3 108.7 121.8 139.9
80.0 193.1 226.8 268.0 36.8
10.6
88.6
19.6
16.8
14.0
11.4
11.5
8.6
3.4
20.5
21.5 (11)
54
98.6 115.9 136.0
25.4
21.6
18.4
19.0
16.8
13.5
7.9
36.4
41.3
(8)
22
110.6 124.0 157.4
21.7
19.3
15.2
13.2
12.1
9.6
4.9
28.1
32.4
(4)
54
17.5
15.4
13.3
13.5
11.7
9.5
3.3
21.7
23.0
(7)
17
31.8
36.2
42.0
contd...
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
30 October 2014 | 22
Valuation Guide Company
Reco
CMP
TP
(INR)
(INR)
Return
M.Cap
M.Cap
(%) (INRbn) ( U S D b n )
Net profit (INRbn) FY14
FY15
FY16
EPS (INR) FY14
PE (x)
FY15
FY16
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY14
FY15
FY16
P/BV (x)
FY14
FY15
FY16
RoE (%) RoCE (%)
FY15
FY15
Absolute (%)
FY15
1m
12m
15
MEDIA Den Networks
BUY
171
220
29
30
0.5
0.8
1.5
2.4
3.4
8.3
13.4
49.6
20.5
12.8
8.4
6.8
4.2
1.6
7.4
7.7
16
Dish TV India
BUY
57
70
22
61
1.0
(0.9)
1.3
3.8
(2.0)
1.3
3.6
(29.1)
45.8
16.0
13.3
8.8
7.0
(31.4)
nm
16.5
6
12
Hathway Cable
BUY
302
350
16
49
0.8
0.14
1.35
2.23
1.0
9.5
15.6
302.2
32.0
19.3
18.5
11.6
7.0
2.0
10.0
13.7
4
10
Just Dial Ltd
HOLD
1,463
1,650
13
103
1.7
1.21
1.36
2.08
17.2
19.4
29.7
84.9
75.6
49.2
67.5
55.8
34.3
15.8
20.8
22.0 (10)
Sun TV Network
BUY
319
485
52
126
2.1
7.5
8.9
10.6
19.2
22.6
26.8
16.7
14.1
11.9
10.2
8.5
7.2
3.5
25.1
33.1
(6)
(25)
39
Zee Ent
HOLD
340
285
(16)
326
5.3
8.9
11.3
12.8
9.2
10.5
12.1
37.0
32.2
28.1
25.9
24.0
20.0
9.3
18.3
22.2
8
29
Hindalco Industries
SELL
157
137
(13)
324
5.3
27.8
35.1
41.3
13.4
17.0
20.0
11.7
9.2
7.8
10.6
8.5
7.0
0.8
8.3
5.5
0
38
Hindustan Zinc
BUY
172
182
6
726
11.8
69.7
70.4
74.8
16.5
16.7
17.7
10.4
10.3
9.7
6.8
5.9
4.9
1.7
17.6
42.9
7
30
JSW Steel
HOLD
1,248
1,276
2
302
4.9
21.6
28.0
32.0
89.6 115.9 132.4
13.9
10.8
9.4
7.5
6.5
5.9
1.3
12.5
7.8
8
47
SAIL
HOLD
83
85
2
343
5.6
16.6
30.0
33.9
20.7
11.4
10.1
12.5
9.9
8.5
0.8
6.9
4.9
19
36
TATA Steel
BUY
472
596
26
458
7.5
36.2
41.6
62.7
NMDC
HOLD
165
184
11
656
10.7
63.7
72.6
78.8
Nalco
BUY
59
61
3
152
2.5
6.9
9.1
9.1
(1)
510
8.3
36.5
30.9
34.0
METALS & MINING
4.0
7.3
8.2
37.3
42.9
64.5
12.6
11.0
7.3
7.4
7.0
6.2
0.9
9.2
5.2
3
44
16.1
18.3
19.9
10.3
9.0
8.3
6.0
5.3
4.8
2.0
22.9
44.3
(0)
22
2.7
3.5
3.5
21.9
16.7
16.6
10.6
8.0
7.1
1.2
7.3
7.2
2
61
55.7
47.2
51.8
12.7
14.9
13.6
7.3
8.0
7.6
2.1
14.2
11.9
8
95
OIL & GAS BPCL
HOLD
705
700
Cairn India
BUY
286
315
10
536
83.8
97.7
65.9
53.4
52.1
4.3
5.4
5.5
3.8
4.2
3.8
0.8
21.9
19.8
(8)
(9)
GAIL India
HOLD
502
415
(17)
637
10.4
41.4
40.4
41.8
32.6
31.9
33.0
15.4
15.7
15.2
10.6
11.3
9.9
2.2
13.8
12.3
12
45
Gujarat State Petro
BUY
97
110
13
55
0.9
4.2
4.4
5.1
7.4
7.9
9.1
13.1
12.3
10.7
6.9
6.7
6.1
1.5
12.1
14.7
4
74
8.7 124.3
HPCL
HOLD
520
500
(4)
176
2.9
14.4
12.9
16.6
42.3
38.0
49.1
12.3
13.7
10.6
8.8
8.2
6.9
1.1
5.1
2.0
8
159
Indian Oil Corp
BUY
356
450
27
864
14.1
58.5
78.6
88.6
24.7
33.2
37.4
14.4
10.7
9.5
10.2
8.5
6.5
1.2
10.9
7.3
(2)
78
Indraprastha Gas
BUY
386
450
16
54
0.9
3.6
4.1
4.5
25.7
29.6
31.9
15.0
13.1
12.1
7.0
6.9
6.1
2.7
20.4
23.8
(8)
42
MRPL
SELL
59
53
(10)
103
1.7
6.0
1.8
9.5
3.4
1.1
5.4
17.2
56.1
10.9
8.8
29.0
7.5
1.4
2.6
1.2
(4)
48
Oil India
BUY
610
750
23
367
6.0
28.8
33.1
46.0
48.0
55.0
76.5
12.7
11.1
8.0
8.7
7.1
4.9
1.6
14.6
11.5
0
32
ONGC
BUY
393
475
21
3,361
54.8 226.4 240.4 305.7
31.7
33.2
41.0
12.4
11.8
9.6
7.4
6.9
5.7
2.2
16.1
18.8
(4)
36
Petronet LNG
HOLD
194
170
(12)
145
7.5
9.5
10.0
10.0
20.4
19.4
19.3
11.2
10.5
10.0
2.6
13.6
13.6
3
58
Reliance Industries
BUY
952
1,045
10
3,078
50.2 224.9 241.8 234.8
69.6
74.8
72.6
13.7
12.7
13.1
11.7
11.1
10.5
1.3
11.0
7.0
1
6
15.9
18.6
26.1
41.4
35.3
25.1
26.4
23.0
16.9
4.7
13.4
11.4
5
57
109.9 147.7 177.4
27.7
20.6
17.2
17.2
13.9
11.5
5.2
25.2
18.9
(6)
21
2.4
7.1
7.5
PHARMACEUTICALS Cipla
HOLD
657
641
(2)
527
8.6
12.7
14.9
21.0
Dr Reddy's
BUY
3,046
3,438
13
519
8.5
18.7
25.1
30.2
Lupin
HOLD
1,356
1,411
4
609
9.9
17.5
24.7
28.7
39.0
55.2
64.2
34.8
24.6
21.1
20.2
15.4
13.6
6.8
31.1
27.7
(3)
50
Sun Pharma
BUY
830
916
10
1,720
28.0
56.8
67.3
88.2
27.4
32.5
36.7
30.3
25.5
22.7
23.8
19.3
14.0
7.1
27.7
28.6
(3)
34
Aurobindo
SELL
958
625
(35)
279
4.5
11.7
14.2
15.2
46.8
48.8
52.1
20.5
19.6
18.4
14.7
13.5
12.4
5.5
32.2
17.3
(1)
338
Cadila Health
BUY
1,384
1,443
4
283
4.6
8.8
11.3
14.8
41.7
55.0
72.2
33.1
25.2
19.2
23.8
18.0
14.0
6.4
26.7
17.8
5
109
Strides
BUY
668
794
19
40
0.6
1.2
2.2
3.4
20.5
37.8
56.3
10.2
26.5
14.4
18.0
10.8
6.9
2.0
22.3
13.7
8
102
Glenmark
HOLD
715
793
11
194
3.2
7.3
9.7
13.0
25.6
36.5
48.6
28.0
19.6
14.7
17.2
13.3
10.3
4.9
29.9
23.5
(1)
29
Biocon
HOLD
444
445
0
89
1.4
4.1
3.7
5.0
20.5
17.6
24.2
21.7
25.2
18.4
13.0
12.9
10.1
2.7
11.7
8.1 (11)
30
Unichem
HOLD
195
204
4
18
0.3
1.0
1.0
1.7
13.0
11.4
18.5
15.1
17.1
10.5
10.0
11.3
7.4
2.1
12.1
9.5 (12)
14
SHIPPING AND LOGISTICS Container Corp.
HOLD
1,377
1,283
(7)
268
4.4
10.1
11.5
13.9
51.7
58.7
71.3
26.6
23.4
19.3
20.3
17.1
13.6
3.4
14.5
20.9
2
82
GE Shipping
HOLD
395
372
(6)
60
1.0
4.6
5.7
7.4
30.8
38.1
48.9
12.8
10.4
8.1
6.1
5.4
4.6
0.8
6.8
7.6
(8)
42
Adani Port and SEZ
HOLD
272
232
(15)
563
9.2
20.1
21.5
26.9
9.6
10.3
12.9
28.2
26.4
21.1
23.1
17.9
14.9
5.4
20.1
16.5
(2)
86
Gujarat Pipavav
HOLD
159
81
(49)
77
1.3
1.8
2.1
2.3
3.6
4.4
4.8
43.8
36.5
33.4
30.3
27.0
22.0
5.2
14.3
13.9
(6)
219
UR: Under Review
contd...
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
30 October 2014 | 23
Valuation Guide Company
Reco
CMP
TP
(INR)
(INR)
Return
M.Cap
M.Cap
659
501
(24)
82
1.3
6.5
78
81
4
128
2.1
10.4
(%) (INRbn) ( U S D b n )
Net profit (INRbn) FY14
FY15
EPS (INR)
PE (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/BV (x)
RoE (%) RoCE (%) FY15
FY15
Absolute (%)
FY16
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY15
1m
12m
6.7
7.1
39.2
42.6
64.8
16.8
15.5
10.2
11.2
8.4
6.2
1.5
9.6
12.4
12.3
4.6
7.6
7.5
17.0
10.3
10.5
6.9
6.1
6.1
1.7
16.7
15.4
11
70
19.7 114.0 103.6 109.6
13.8
12.6
13.3
10.6
11.6
11.0
9.1
9.0
8.8
1.3
11.1
7.8
5
(1)
UTILITIES CESC
HOLD
JSW Energy
BUY
7.2 (12)
91
NTPC
HOLD
146
141
(3)
1,206
Power Grid
BUY
143
166
16
746
12.2
45.0
52.4
61.1
8.6
10.0
11.7
16.6
14.2
12.2
11.9
10.7
9.5
1.9
13.6
7.7
5
42
PTC India
BUY
88
122
39
26
0.4
3.6
2.6
3.7
8.5
5.9
8.5
10.3
14.9
10.3
6.6
9.6
6.0
1.0
6.7
6.8
3
57
Tata Power
HOLD
91
101
12
246
4.0
(2.6)
18.6
19.6
(1.1)
6.9
7.3
(83.0)
13.2
12.5
7.8
6.3
5.8
1.7
12.6
11.6
9
17
Coal India
BUY
359
442
23
2,266
36.9 151.1 177.4 210.4
23.9
28.1
33.3
15.0
12.8
10.8
11.0
9.1
6.8
4.6
36.3
32.6
5
27
OTHERS Supreme Industries
HOLD
597
547
(8)
76
1.2
2.5
2.9
3.7
22.3
27.6
35.2
26.8
21.7
17.0
14.6
12.6
10.3
6.2
26.7
28.9
(9)
52
Cera Sanitaryware
HOLD
1,669
1,556
(7)
21
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.8
41.6
55.1
66.4
40.2
30.3
25.1
23.8
18.3
15.3
7.5
27.5
32.2
4
171
Kajaria Ceramics
HOLD
606
612
1
46
0.7
1.2
1.7
2.2
15.6
21.3
27.8
38.8
28.4
21.8
17.1
13.6
10.6
7.3
26.4
30.2
(5)
150
Finolex Industries
BUY
326
340
4
40
0.7
1.7
2.4
2.8
13.7
19.3
22.7
23.8
16.9
14.4
12.8
9.8
8.4
4.5
28.4
25.0
(0)
168
Astral Poly Technik Limited
BUY
374
382
2
42
0.7
0.8
1.2
1.7
7.0
10.8
15.3
53.4
34.6
24.4
26.5
20.1
15.3
5.1
33.2
34.8
(7)
194
HSIL
BUY
386
379
(2)
25
0.4
0.3
0.8
1.3
5.1
11.4
19.5
75.0
33.7
19.8
14.1
10.8
8.4
2.4
7.2
11.4
8
372
Somany Ceramics Limited
HOLD
311
320
3
12
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.6
7.4
11.8
15.9
41.9
26.3
19.6
15.9
12.6
10.1
4.6
18.7
18.0
7
261
Company
Reco
CMP
TP
Return
M.Cap
M.Cap
(INR)
(INR)
FY14
(%) (INRbn) ( U S D b n )
Net profit (INRbn) FY14
FY15
FY16
EPS (INR)
PE (x)
NNPA Ratio (%) FY15
P/AdjBV (x) RoE (%) RoA (%)
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY16
FY15
26.5
31.1
36.7
16.1
13.7
11.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
2.3
105.4 116.2 129.3
8.6
7.8
7.0
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.2
FY15
Absolute (%)
FY15
1m
12m
17.7
1.8
13
74
13.2
0.7
0
56
FINANCIALS Axis Bank
BUY
426
440
3
1004
16.4
62.2
73.1
86.2
Bank of Baroda
BUY
906
1007
11
389
6.3
45.4
50.1
55.7
Bank of India
HOLD
273
268
(2)
176
2.9
27.3
34.2
42.7
42.4
53.2
66.4
6.4
5.1
4.1
3.2
3.2
3.1
0.7
10.9
0.6
18
58
Canara Bank
HOLD
388
415
7
179
2.9
24.4
33.3
42.2
52.9
72.1
91.5
7.3
5.4
4.2
2.0
1.8
1.7
0.7
10.7
0.6
11
67
Federal Bank
BUY
139
155
12
119
1.9
8
10
13
9.8
11.6
14.7
14.2
12.0
9.4
0.7
0.2
0.2
1.6
12.8
1.3
10
74
HDFC
HOLD
1,049
904
(14)
1646
26.8
54.4
59.4
73.6
34.9
38.1
47.2
30.1
27.5
22.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
5.2
19.8
2.5
(1)
23
HDFC Bank
HOLD
892
850
(5)
2152
35.1
84.8 106.6 136.7
35.5
44.4
57.0
25.1
20.1
15.7
0.3
0.2
0.2
4.2
22.3
2.0
2
31
ICICI Bank
BUY
1,606
1575
(2)
1859
30.3
98.1 111.5 130.2
84.5
95.9 112.1
19.0
16.7
14.3
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.4
13.7
1.7
12
46
IndusInd Bank
HOLD
692.35
650
(6)
366
6.0
14.1
18.1
22.3
26.8
34.4
42.3
25.8
20.1
16.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
3.5
18.4
1.9
11
55
Kotak Mahindra
HOLD
1,080
950
(12)
833
13.6
15.0
18.0
24.1
19.5
23.3
31.3
55.4
46.3
34.5
0.8
1.0
1.1
6.2
13.7
1.9
7
46
5.3
33.4
47.6
58.7
92.3 131.5 162.1
9.8
6.9
5.6
2.8
2.8
2.5
1.1
12.5
0.8
2
81
32.2 108.9 143.3 218.5
145.9 192.0 292.7
18.1
13.8
9.0
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.8
11.5
0.7
8
54
2.3
2.4
2.5
1.0
12.5
0.6
19
96
PNB
BUY
905
1085
20
328
SBI
BUY
2,644
3045
15
1974
Union Bank
BUY
225
232
3
143
2.3
17.0
22.4
26.7
26.9
35.5
42.3
8.4
6.3
5.3
44.9
50.7
58.4
14.2
12.6
10.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.7
23.1
1.5
14
71
144.5 177.9 224.9
19.0
15.4
12.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
2.9
21.3
3.1
1
109
36.4
19.4
16.3
13.5
0.8
1.1
1.3
2.4
16.7
2.0
(1)
115
YES Bank
BUY
638
653
2
266
4.3
16.2
18.3
21.1
Bajaj Auto Fin
BUY
2,745
2890
5
138
2.2
7.2
8.8
11.2
Chola Invst & Fin.
HOLD
492
394
(20)
71
1.2
3.6
4.7
5.7
Gruh Finance
BUY
206
240
17
75
1.2
1.8
2.0
2.6
9.8
5.6
7.2
21.0
36.5
28.4
-
-
-
10.0
31.7
3.5
7
83
LIC Housing Fin
BUY
339
350
3
171
2.8
13.2
14.5
18.4
26.1
28.7
36.5
13.0
11.8
9.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
2.4
17.8
1.4
4
55
M&M Fin.
HOLD
287
295
3
163
2.7
8.9
9.0
12.2
15.8
15.9
21.6
18.2
18.0
13.3
1.9
2.2
2.5
3.1
16.1
2.7
5
(2)
25.4
30.2
Manappuram
BUY
32
26
(18)
27
0.4
2.3
2.0
2.3
2.7
2.4
2.8
11.8
13.1
11.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
1.1
8.0
1.9
8
103
Muthoot Finance
BUY
187
230
23
74
1.2
7.8
8.3
9.9
21.0
20.9
24.9
8.9
8.9
7.5
1.1
0.9
0.9
1.6
17.6
3.9
(9)
82
PFC
BUY
278
377
36
367
6.0
54.2
63.8
72.9
41.0
49.5
56.4
6.8
5.6
4.9
0.5
1.0
1.1
1.1
21.7
3.1
18
104
Repco Home Fin.
BUY
480
573
19
30
0.5
1.1
1.3
1.7
17.7
21.6
27.4
27.1
22.2
17.5
0.7
0.7
0.7
3.7
19.4
2.4
13
66
REC
HOLD
295
422
43
291
4.7
46.8
54.3
63.3
47.4
56.5
65.6
6.2
5.2
4.5
0.1
0.3
0.5
1.2
23.6
3.5
18
54
Shriram Transport
BUY
894
1135
27
203
3.3
13.6
14.9
18.0
60.0
65.9
79.6
14.9
13.6
11.2
0.5
0.7
1.8
2.1
16.4
2.9
(4)
45
SKS Microfinance
BUY
316
387
22
40
0.6
0.7
2.1
2.3
6.5
16.6
18.6
48.8
19.1
17.0
0.1
0.3
0.4
6.2
20.1
5.6
5
109
PTC Financial
BUY
47
54
14
27
0.4
2.1
3.0
4.4
3.7
5.4
7.8
12.7
8.8
6.0
0
0
0
1.6
19.8
4.1
5
316
UR: Under Review
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
30 October 2014 | 24
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Events Calendar
Oct/Nov 2014
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sun
27 Oct
28 Oct
29 Oct
30 Oct
31 Oct
1 Nov
2 Nov
Cholamandalam Fin
M&M
9 Nov
Manappuram Fin
JSW Energy
ICICI Bank
NMDC
Yes Bank
NTPC
Maruti Suzuki Ceat Glenmark Pharma
Union Bank of India GAIL KEC Intl PFC
3 Nov
4 Nov
Bank of India
5 Nov
6 Nov
7 Nov
8 Nov
Muthoot Finance Hexaware Tech
Ashok Leyland Cadila Healthcare Aurobindo Pharma
Bank of Baroda Larsen & Toubro Petronet LNG
Coal India Repco Home Finance
Sun TV
10 Nov
11 Nov
12 Nov
13 Nov
14 Nov
Apollo Tyres Bharat Forge REC
HPCL
Eicher Motors BPCL Tata Steel
Tata Power
Tata Motors
Nalco
15 Nov
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED
FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
30 October 2014 | 25
Important Disclaimer: This report is prepared and published on behalf of the research team of Antique Stock Broking Limited (ASBL). ASBL, its holding company and associate companies are a full service, integrated investment banking, investment advisory and brokerage group. Our research analysts and sales persons provide important inputs for our investment banking and allied activities. We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained herein, so far as it relates to current and historical information, but do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing in the material and may be subject to change from time to time without any notice. ASBL or any persons connected with it do not solicit any action based on this report and do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own judgment and take their own professional advice before acting on this information. The research reports are for private circulation and are not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons in whose possession this document comes, should inform themselves about and observe, any such restrictions. ASBL its holding company and associate companies or any of its connected persons including its directors or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained, views and opinions expressed in this publication. ASBL its holding company and associate companies, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. ASBL, its holding company and associate companies, directors, officers or employees may, from time to time, deal in the securities mentioned herein, as principal or agent. ASBL its holding company and associate companies may have acted as an Investment Advisor or Merchant Banker for some of the companies (or its connected persons) mentioned in this report. The research reports and all the information opinions and conclusions contained in them are proprietary information of ASBL and the same may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part without express consent of ASBL. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Analyst ownership in stock
No
Antique Stock Broking Limited
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