The Resilient Economy Bernard Hickey NZ’s Economic Model – Time for a Complete Rethink November 2010
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Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
• Why the old orthodoxy doesn’t work anymore • What should or could replace it • Stability&balance Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
Some family photos
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
Some family photos
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
Some family photos
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
Some family photos
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
The coming decades of deleveraging and correcGng imbalances Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
The debt is crushing This is 1929 240%
This is 2008 340%
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
But NZ’s different right?
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
Fueled by foreign debt
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
Tipping point beckons
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
Worse than USA
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
We should lose the Bledisloe to say thanks Eriksens Actuarial Conference Sept 14 Stamford Plaza
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
The ugly future
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
• Big problem to fix • Turn around debt • Save more, spend less & invest more • Tilt the economy • Aggressively Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
Work has started
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
Money back in the ATM
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
What if we don’t change anything? Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
Here’s the problem
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
• Be[er investment • More investment • Capital controls • Forced saving? • Tax breaks? • Working Group Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
• No tax on inflaGon • Compulsion? • Focus local? • Fund Managers • Low returns • VolaGle markets Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
• Land tax/CGT ? • Core funding raGo • Luxury goods taxes • Taxing ‘bads’ • Taxing the rich • Regulatory focus Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
• PrudenGal policy • The world of QE II • Trade Wars • Or deflaGon • Slow growth • Deleveraging Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
Look for other opGons and prepare for austerity and a new orthodoxy Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
The elephant in the room. Doing it with a hollowed out workforce. Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
Mind the Gap
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
A family snapshot
Policy in a world a6er the bubble burst -‐ Nov 22
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