Singapore Company Focus
Silverlake Axis Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Bloomberg: SILV SP | Reuters: SLVX.SI
DBS Group Research. Equity
24 Sep 2013
BUY S$0.715 STI: 3,214.25
Double-digit growth & 4.5% yield Existing backlog enough for FY14F revenue
Price Target: 12-Month S$0.82 (Prev S$0.80) Reason for Report: Company Update Potential Catalyst: Large contract win before Dec 2013 DBSV vs Consensus: In line
Pursuing seven deals at the moment, big order win from a Malaysian bank could be a catalyst Maintain BUY with revised TP of S$0.82 implying potential returns of over 18%.
Analyst Sachin MITTAL +65 6398 7950
[email protected]
Backlog of ~RM325m at the end of FY13 provides 12-month visibility. The backlog contains a mix of licence & project revenue and has been boosted RM4050m by acquisitions of Merimen (insurance processing) and Cyber Village (mobile & Internet banking) recently. Both these acquisitions also demonstrate how SILV is expanding its presence from core banking into adjacent sectors. In addition to the backlog, SILV is set to secure a recurring maintenance revenue of ~RM200m (~45% of group revenue) in FY14F.
Price Relative S$
Relative Index
0.9
237
0.8
217
0.7
197
0.6
177 157
0.5
137 0.4
117
0.3
97
0.2
77
Sep-09
Sep-10
Silverlake Axis (LHS)
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Relative STI INDEX (RHS)
Forecasts and Valuation FY Jun (RM m)
Turnover EBITDA Pre-tax Profit Net Profit Net Pft (Pre Ex.) EPS (S cts) EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) EPS Gth (%) EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) Diluted EPS (S cts) Net DPS (S cts) BV Per Share (S cts) PE (X) PE Pre Ex. (X) P/Cash Flow (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Net Div Yield (%) P/Book Value (X) Net Debt/Equity (X) ROAE (%) Earnings Rev (%): Consensus EPS (S cts): Other Broker Recs:
2012A
2013A
2014F
2015F
400 183 180 162 162 3.0 3.0 41 41 3.0 1.9 5.5 24.0 24.0 28.2 20.8 2.7 13.1 CASH 63.6
399 216 213 196 196 3.4 3.4 15 15 3.4 2.9 10.4 20.8 20.8 22.2 17.3 4.1 6.9 CASH 44.0
493 255 253 231 231 4.0 4.0 18 18 4.0 3.2 11.5 17.7 17.7 20.0 14.8 4.5 6.2 CASH 36.9
550 284 283 255 255 4.5 4.5 10 10 4.5 3.6 12.7 16.0 16.0 17.0 13.1 5.0 5.6 CASH 36.8
B: 6
1 4.2 S: 0
1 4.8 H: 0
ICB Industry : Technology ICB Sector: Software & Computer Services Principal Business: Silverelake Axis provides customized software solutions for the banking industry
Source of all data: Company, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P
www.dbsvickers.com ed: TH / sa: JC
Pursuing several big and small contracts in FY14F, which may enhance backlog further. SILV is pursuing seven contracts - two in Malaysia, one each in Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia and two outside ASEAN. SILV secured three contract wins and four upgrades last year. In our view, SILV is a strong contender to secure a big contract over RM200m from a Malaysian bank before end of 2013, which could boost the visibility from 12 months to 24 months. Trading at 15-20% discount despite better growth prospects. Relative to its banking software peers Temenos & Oracle Financial Service (OFS) - SILV has been growing faster as it is not exposed to a slower banking sector in Europe & US. On top of this, SILV’s maintenance revenue accounts for 45% of revenue, similar to Temenos but much higher than OFS. We contend that SILV should trade at least 20x FY14F PE, as OFS & Temenos trade at 20x & 22x respectively. SILV is cash rich with net cash of RM335m at the end of FY13. At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) Major Shareholders Intellingentsia Holding (%) Free Float (%) Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000)
2,245 1,605 / 1,283 67.6 32.4 1,368
Company Focus Silverlake Axis
70% of business comes from existing customers – 45% from maintenance and 25% from upgrades & extensions
estimate that extensions and upgrades account for 4045% of licensing and project services. Key Customers of Silverlake Axis
New Business contributes 30% Recurring Maintenance contributes
Recurring Upgrades & Extensions contribute 25%
45% Maintenance
SILVERLAKE AXIS Source: DBS Vickers
Recurring maintenance business growing in tandem with new order wins. Once a project is completed successfully over couple of months, it enters into maintenance phase with annual recurring revenue. Typically, licensing business accounts for 40% of new order wins, with software installation accounting for the remaining 60%. Maintenance business is usually 15% of the licence revenue, and hence, it accounts for about 6% of new order wins and is projected to grow in tandem. Besides, SILV also increased pricing for maintenance business in FY12, which would further accelerate the growth. Maintenance business accounts for 45% of the SILV’s total business. Upgrades and extensions have become significant due to large customer base. Generally, financial institutions go for software extensions or upgrades every 3-4 years. Many of these institutions would prefer their existing vendor of the core banking platform due to the ease of integration and their knowledge of existing platform. SILV has established a customer base of more than 100 financial institutions over several years. As such, SILV stands to gain orders from its existing customers each year. While these are recurring revenues, there could be some lumpiness in these revenues if customers decide to postpone their spending. However, existing customers are likely to award contracts to SILV whenever they decide to go ahead. These contracts typically account for about 25% of SILV’s business and are classified under licensing and project business. We
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Conventional Banking
CIMB, OCBC, UOB, Bank Mandiri, Hong Leong, ThanaChart Bank
Islamic Banking
CIMB Islamic, OCBC Al-Amin, Bank Islam Malaysia, Agro Bank Malaysia, BIBD Group Brunei
Retail & Logistics
Logistics – Hainan Airlines Group, China Retail – Robinsons, AEON-Jusco, Marks & Spencer
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
Ample opportunities from ASEAN in the medium term. In ASEAN, an estimated 50% of banks are using their legacy in-house software for their core banking systems. It is only a matter of time before many of these banks will migrate to third-party software when their existing legacy systems can no longer cope with regional expansion and newer requirements of Internet banking, mobile banking and compliance requirements. Top 10 banks in Malaysia including Maybank and RHB plan to migrate to new core banking systems. Each project could be worth at least RM200m in our estimate, which is a big opportunity for SILV. We would like to highlight that SILV won a core banking project of CIMB in FY10, demonstrating its superior competitive position in Malaysia. SILV’s key competitors in the region are Oracle Financial Service and Infosys’ Finacle. SILV is ahead of its competitors in ASEAN but needs to catch up in other parts of Asia, such as China, Japan and India. Acquisitions to drive growth. The company looks for three key criteria in its acquisition targets. (i) PE multiples must not exceed 10x (ii) the acquiree company must have a mature software, (iii) one-third revenue of the acquiree company must be recurring. These three criteria have underpinned SILV’s four key acquisitions over the last two years. Acquisitions in the banking and financial sector. The acquisition of Isis International Pte Ltd in 2011 for S$18m enabled SILV to integrate the systems of two
Company Focus Silverlake Axis
different banks in less than 100 days. In Apr 2013, SILV completed the acquisition of 80% stake in Merimen for ~RM50m. Merimen is a market leader in motor claims processing in Malaysia and Singapore. This venture has paved the way for SILV to diversify into the insurance industry, bringing in another recurring revenue stream in its expansion trail. In June 2013, SILV acquired Cyber Village for ~RM42m. Cyber Village will add to SILV’s capabilities, especially in the mobile banking space.
Growing non-banking solution business as well. The acquisition of QR Technology in 2010 helped SILV to diversify into retail based clients (eg, Robinson, Marks & Spencer, EON-Jusco) and logistics clients (eg, Hainan Airlines Group, China). We understand that SILV is trying to expand its retail solutions for Marks & Spencer to Eastern Europe and EON-Jusco to Hong Kong. The company intends to grow non-banking solutions business much faster due to its smaller base.
Relative comparison of SILV with global peers in the banking software space
Silverlake Axis
Oracle Financial Service
Temenos
Over 80% of the business comes from ASEAN and the rest from other Asian countries and Middle East
Over 50% of business comes from Europe and US. Rest comes from Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa
Over 50% of business comes from developed markets with Europe as major contributor. Rest comes from Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa
Maintenance revenue accounts for 45% of group revenue
Maintenance revenue Maintenance revenue accounts for less than 30% accounts for 45% of group of group revenue revenue
Key Characteristics
Past Performance Annual revenue of ~US$133m in FY13 (June YE), registered revenue CAGR of 14% over FY11‐13
Annual revenue of ~US$639m in FY13 (Mar YE), registered revenue CAGR of ‐ 1% over FY11‐13
Annual revenue of US$450m in FY12 (Dec YE), registered revenue CAGR of 1% over FY11‐13 Normalized profit of US$62m (reported profit of US$30m) Annual profit of ~US$65m in Annual profit of ~US$198m in FY12, registered profit CAGR of ‐20% over FY10‐12 FY13, registered profit CAGR in FY13, registered profit of 30% over FY11‐13 CAGR of ‐8% over FY11‐13 due to decline in licensing rev. Projections & Valuations We project revenue CAGR of Street projects revenue 17% over FY13‐15F CAGR of 5% over FY13‐15F We project profit CAGR of 13% over FY13‐15F Trading at 17.7x FY14F PER at S$0.72
Street projects revenue CAGR of 5% over FY12‐14F. Street projects profit CAGR of Street projects profit CAGR 16% over FY12‐14F due to of 6% over FY13‐15F rebound in licensing rev. Trading at 20x FY14F PER at INR 2988 Trading at 22x PER at CHF 23
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Vickers
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Company Focus Silverlake Axis
Relative Comparison –Temenos and Oracle Financial Services are pure banking software companies, TCS, Infosys and SAP have major contribution from non-banking software business Year End
Price 20 Sep 13
Est PE Curr Yr (x)
Est PE Next Yr
INR
2,988.05
20.0
17.4
3.4
-
15.7
2-yr EPS CAGR FY1214 (%) 15.5 30.9
Mkt Cap (US$m)
CRNCY
3,982
P/BV Div Yield ROE (%) (x) (%)
Profit Margin
ORACLE FINANCIAL SERVICES INFOSYS LTD
03/2013
27,860
INR
2,995.15
17.1
15.3
4.3
1.4
25.6
23.4
9.8
FISERV INC
12/2012
132,481
USD
101.94
17.0
15.4
3.9
-
17.5
13.6
21.1
SAP AG
12/2012
49,827
EUR
55.40
16.1
14.4
4.6
1.5
21.9
17.4
26.6
TEMENOS GROUP AG-REG
12/2012
1,810
CHF
23.00
22.0
18.7
9.8
1.2
13.4
5.4
96.1
TATA CONSULTANCY SVCS LTD
03/2013
61,666
INR
1,950.30
22.3
19.4
9.2
1.2
38.9
22.1
19.7
Silverlake Axis
06/2013
1283
SGD
0.72
17.7
16.0
6.9
4.1
44.0
49.0
14.0
03/2013
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Vickers
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Company Focus Silverlake Axis Key Assumptions FY Jun
Revenue growth Gross Margins
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014F
2015F
74.1 59.9
31.0 54.4
(0.2) 63.6
23.5 60.6
11.6 60.0 Benefitted from higher licensing contribution and significant drop of hardware sales
Segmental Breakdown FY Jun
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014F
2015F
51 131 98 17 8 0 305
63 147 139 17 33 0 400
120 174 78 17 7 5 399
158 200 89 17 8 22 493
176 224 100 17 8 25 550
FY Jun
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014F
2015F
Revenue Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit Other Opng (Exp)/Inc Operating Profit Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc Exceptional Gain/(Loss) Pre-tax Profit Tax Minority Interest Preference Dividend Net Profit Net Profit before Except. EBITDA Growth Revenue Gth (%) EBITDA Gth (%) Opg Profit Gth (%) Net Profit Gth (%) Margins & Ratio Gross Margins (%) Opg Profit Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) ROAE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) Div Payout Ratio (%) Net Interest Cover (x)
305 (123) 183 (40) 143 0 (11) 0 0 132 (17) 0 0 115 115 136
400 (183) 217 (39) 178 0 1 0 0 180 (18) 0 0 162 162 183
399 (145) 254 (43) 211 0 2 0 0 213 (17) 0 0 196 196 216
493 (194) 299 (51) 248 0 3 2 0 253 (23) 0 0 231 231 255
550 (220) 330 (54) 276 0 5 2 0 283 (28) 0 0 255 255 284
74.1 72.2 79.7 82.4
31.0 35.0 24.9 40.9
(0.2) 18.2 18.3 20.6
23.5 17.6 17.6 17.8
11.6 11.6 11.4 10.4
59.9 46.7 37.7 61.3 38.3 64.8 50.0 527.8
54.4 44.5 40.6 63.6 45.1 59.8 65.0 NM
63.6 52.7 49.0 44.0 36.1 40.5 85.0 NM
60.6 50.2 46.8 36.9 32.2 33.7 80.0 NM
60.0 50.1 46.3 36.8 32.5 33.7 80.0 NM
Revenues (RM m) Licensing of SIBS Maintenance Services Customised software Credit Card Hardware & Software Insurance Processing Total
To benefit from Cyber Village acquisition and other order wins
Income Statement (RM m)
Margins Trend 55.0%
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
35.0% 2011A
2012A
Operating Margin %
2013A
2014F
2015F
Net Income Margin %
Drop due to decline in hardware sales
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
Page 5
Company Focus Silverlake Axis Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (RM m) FY Jun
Revenue Trend
4Q2012
1Q2013
2Q2013
3Q2013
4Q2013
96 (36) 60 (6) 55 0 2 0 0 56 (7) 0 50 50 56
80 (29) 51 (9) 42 0 0 0 0 42 (3) 0 40 40 42
101 (39) 61 (12) 50 0 2 0 0 52 (2) 0 49 49 51
109 (40) 68 (14) 55 0 (2) 0 0 53 (6) 0 47 47 53
110 (37) 73 (9) 64 0 2 (1) 0 66 (6) 0 60 60 66
(4.3) 24.2 15.8 12.9
(16.7) (25.1) (22.4) (20.3)
25.6 22.1 17.1 24.8
8.1 3.5 10.3 (4.1)
1.2 24.4 17.0 26.1
62.9 56.8 51.6
63.8 52.9 49.4
60.8 49.3 49.0
62.9 50.3 43.5
66.6 58.1 54.2
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014F
2015F
Net Fixed Assets Invts in Associates & JVs Other LT Assets Cash & ST Invts Inventory Debtors Other Current Assets Total Assets
10 72 27 72 0 121 17 320
1 72 74 96 0 121 36 400
2 72 110 361 0 121 18 683
3 92 143 343 0 149 18 748
4 65 182 381 1 166 18 817
ST Debt Creditor Other Current Liab LT Debt Other LT Liabilities Shareholder’s Equity Minority Interests Total Cap. & Liab.
0 98 5 3 1 213 0 320
0 44 36 3 19 298 0 400
0 44 3 25 19 592 0 683
0 44 3 25 19 656 0 748
0 44 2 25 19 726 0 817
36 69 132.0 314.5 N/A 1.0 2.0 1.9 CASH CASH 49.2 26.0
77 93 110.4 144.8 N/A 1.1 3.1 2.7 CASH CASH 49.2 27.4
92 335 110.3 113.2 N/A 0.7 10.6 10.2 CASH CASH 9.7 30.7
120 317 99.7 84.2 N/A 0.7 10.8 10.4 CASH CASH 7.8 30.9
139 355 104.5 74.2 0.8 0.7 12.1 11.7 CASH CASH 7.8 31.0
30%
120
25%
Growth Revenue Gth (%) EBITDA Gth (%) Opg Profit Gth (%) Net Profit Gth (%) Margins Gross Margins (%) Opg Profit Margins (%) Net Profit Margins (%)
20% 15%
80
10% 60
5% 0%
40
-5% -10%
20
-15% 0
Revenue
4Q2013
3Q2013
2Q2013
1Q2013
4Q2012
3Q2012
2Q2012
4Q2011
1Q2012
-20% 3Q2011
Revenue Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc Operating Profit Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc Exceptional Gain/(Loss) Pre-tax Profit Tax Minority Interest Net Profit Net profit bef Except. EBITDA
100
Revenue Growth % (QoQ)
Benefits from higher licensing revenue
Source: Company, DBS Vickers Balance Sheet (RM m) FY Jun
Non-Cash Wkg. Capital Net Cash/(Debt) Debtors Turn (avg days) Creditors Turn (avg days) Inventory Turn (avg days) Asset Turnover (x) Current Ratio (x) Quick Ratio (x) Net Debt/Equity (X) Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) Capex to Debt (%) Z-Score (X)
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
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Asset Breakdown (2013) Debtors 21.8%
Net Fixed Assets 0.4% Assocs'/JVs 13.0%
Inventory 0.0%
Benefitted from new equity issue worth RM192m
Bank, Cash and Liquid Assets 64.8%
Company Focus Silverlake Axis Capital Expenditure
Cash Flow Statement (RM m) FY Jun
Pre-Tax Profit Dep. & Amort. Tax Paid Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) Chg in Wkg.Cap. Other Operating CF Net Operating CF Capital Exp.(net) Other Invts.(net) Invts in Assoc. & JV Div from Assoc & JV Other Investing CF Net Investing CF Div Paid Chg in Gross Debt Capital Issues Other Financing CF Net Financing CF Currency Adjustments Chg in Cash Opg CFPS (sen) Free CFPS (sen)
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014F
2015F
132 4 (17) 11 (13) 0 116 (2) 0 0 0 (2) (4) (69) 0 0 (1) (70) (2) 41 6.0 5.3
180 5 (18) (1) (28) 0 138 (2) 4 (35) 0 0 (32) (78) 0 0 (4) (82) 0 24 7.7 6.4
213 5 (17) (2) (15) 1 184 (3) 0 (33) 0 0 (36) (149) 22 180 61 115 1 264 8.9 8.1
253 5 (23) (3) (28) 0 204 (2) 0 (40) 0 0 (42) (180) 0 0 0 (180) 0 (18) 10.3 9.0
283 6 (28) (5) (19) 3 240 (2) 0 0 0 0 (2) (199) 0 0 0 (199) 0 39 11.5 10.6
3 3 2 2 1 1 0 2011A
2012A
2013A
2014F
2015F
Capital Expenditure (-)
Spent for Merimen acquisition
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
Target Price & Ratings History
0.85
S$
0.80
S.No.
0.75
1: 2: 3:
3
0.70
Closing Price 15 Nov 12 0.46 05 Feb 13 0.53 13 May 13 0.74 Date
Target Price 0.52 0.58 0.80
Rating Buy Buy Buy
0.65 0.60
2
0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40
1
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Note : Share price and Target price are adjusted for corporate actions.
Source: DBS Vickers
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Company Focus Silverlake Axis
DBSV recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
Share price appreciation + dividends DBS Vickers Research is available on the following electronic platforms: DBS Vickers (www.dbsvresearch.com); Thomson (www.thomson.com/financial); Factset (www.factset.com); Reuters (www.rbr.reuters.com); Capital IQ (www.capitaliq.com) and Bloomberg (DBSR GO). For access, please contact your DBSV salesperson. GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Vickers Research (Singapore) Pte Ltd ("DBSVR"), a direct wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd ("DBSVS") and an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers Securities Holdings Pte Ltd ("DBSVH"). This report is intended for clients of DBSV Group only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVR. It is being distributed in the United States by DBSV US, which accepts responsibility for its contents. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc (“DBSVUSA”) directly and not its affiliate. The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBSVR, DBSVS, and/or DBSVH) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. DBSVR accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. DBSVH is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Bank Ltd. DBS Bank Ltd along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. DBSVR, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and their associates, their directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by DBSVR, DBSVS and/or DBSVH (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that: (a) (b)
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ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of 24 Sep 2013, the analyst and his / her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities, directorships and trustee positions).
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Company Focus Silverlake Axis COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries do not have a proprietary position in the company mentioned as 1. of 20-Sep-2013 2.
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3.
Compensation for investment banking services: i.
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ii.
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