Municipality Name: Agriculture
No
Sector
Indicator Title
Indicator Description
Exposure Question
Exposure Answer (yes/no)
Source of information
Sensitivity Question
Sensitivity Answer (High/ Medium/ Low)
Source of information
Adaptive Capacity Question
1 Agriculture
Change in grain (maize, wheat & barley) Areas towards the west of RSA are likely to production become less suitable for grain production.
Do you grow or have potential to grow grains in your area?
LTAS Agricultural Crops Maps
How important is grain to the local economy and livelihoods? High Priority Crop = High; Medium Priority Crop = Medium; Low/No Priority Crop = Low
Do you have high, medium or low To be determined adaptive capacity to respond to Change through consultation in grain (maize, wheat & barley) with key stakeholders production?
2 Agriculture
Change in Sorghum production
Sorghum yields are projected to increase in parts of western KZN, inland areas of the Eastern Cape and the eastern Free State, with some areas in the north registering losses compared with present climatic conditions.
Do you grow or have potential to grow Sorghum in your area?
LTAS Agricultural Crops Maps
How important is sorghum to the local economy and livelihoods? High Priority Crop = High; Medium Priority Crop = Medium; Low/No Priority Crop = Low
To be determined Do you have high, medium or low through consultation adaptive capacity to respond to Change with key stakeholders in Sorghum production?
LTAS Agricultural Crops Maps
How important is soya bean to the local economy and livelihoods? High Priority Crop = High; Medium Priority Crop = Medium; Low/No Priority Crop = Low
To be determined Do you have high, medium or low through consultation adaptive capacity to respond to Change with key stakeholders in Soya Bean Production?
How important is sugarcane to the local economy and livelihoods? High Priority Crop = High; Medium Priority Crop = Medium; Low/No Priority Crop = Low
To be determined Do you have high, medium or low through consultation adaptive capacity to respond to Change with key stakeholders in Sugarcane Production?
3 Agriculture
Areas in the east of RSA lost to potential Change in Soya production, with an expansion of suitable Bean areas inland towards the central/west or Production RSA.
Do you grow or have potential to grow Soya Bean in your area?
4 Agriculture
Change in Sugarcane Production
Do you grow or have potential to grow Sugarcane in your area?
LTAS Agricultural Crops Maps
To be determined Do you have high, medium or low through consultation adaptive capacity to respond to Change with key stakeholders in viticulture (grapes) production?
Increase in <10% in many parts of the present cane growing areas, but by up to 30% in new growth areas further inland.
5 Agriculture
Change in viticulture (grapes) production
Areas suitable for viticulture could be substantially reduced or shift to higher altitudes and currently cooler, more southerly locations.
Do you grow or have potential to grow grapes in your area?
How important is viticulture (grapes) to the local economy and livelihoods? High Priority Crop = High; Wines of South Africa Medium Priority Crop = Medium; Maps Low /No Priority Crop = Low
6 Agriculture
Change in fruit production
Projected reduction of the area suitable for fruit production (e.g 28% reduction in apple and pears) by as early as 2020.
Do you grow or have potential to grow fruit in your area?
HortGro Key Deciduous Fruit Statistics 2014
How important is fruit to the local economy and livelihoods? High Priority Crop = High; Medium Priority Crop = Medium; Low/No Priority Crop = Low
To be determined Do you have high, medium or low through consultation adaptive capacity to respond to Change with key stakeholders in fruit production?
7 Agriculture
Change in other crop production areas (e.g. vegetables, Crop production may vary depending on a nuts, etc.) warmer wetter or warmer drier climate.
LTAS Agricultural Crops Maps
How important are other crops to the local economy and livelihoods? High Priority Crop = High; Medium Priority Crop = Medium; Low/No Priority Crop = Low
Do you have high, medium or low To be determined adaptive capacity to respond to Change through consultation in other crop production areas (e.g. with key stakeholders vegetables, nuts, etc.)?
8 Agriculture
Do you have or have potential for commercial Increased areas The total area suitable for commercial forestry for commercial forestry plantations would increase along the plantations in plantations eastern seaboard and adjacent areas. your area?
LTAS Major Forestry Trees Maps
Is there capacity for commercial plantation expansion (water use licence, land availability, demand for plantation products)? High Potential for Expansion = High; Medium Potential for Expansion = Medium; Low/No Potential for Expansion = Low
Do you have high, medium or low To be determined adaptive capacity to respond to through consultation Increased areas for commercial with key stakeholders plantations?
9 Agriculture
Increased exposure to pests such as eldana, chilo and codling moth
Exposure to eldana would increase in areas suitable for sugarcane by ~10% to > 30%. The area subject to damage by chilo would increase substantially (sugarcane). The area subject to damage by codling moth would increase substantially (apples, pears, walnuts and quince).
Are you or will you be exposed to agricultural pests in your area?
How important are crops that are vulnerable to pests to the local economy and livelihoods? High Priority Crop = High; LTAS Agriculture Pest Medium Priority Crop = Medium; Maps Low/No Priority Crop = Low
Increased risks to livestock
Projected decreases in rainfall and hence herbage yields would result in negative health impacts for livestock.
Do you or will you have livestock in your area?
LTAS Phase 1 Technical Report - No 3 of 6 - Agriculture and Forestry
Do you or will you have food insecurity in your area?
Percentage households involved in agricultural activities LTAS Phase 2 More than 20% = High; Technical Report 5 of Between 20% & 10% = Medium; 7 Food Security Less than 10% = Low
10 Agriculture
11 Agriculture
Reduced food security
Reduced food security, particularly of subsistence farmers, and resultant increase in malnutrition.
Do you grow or have potential to grow other crops in your area?
How important is livestock farming to the local economy and livelihoods? High Priority = High; Medium Priority = Medium; Low/No Priority = Low
Do you have high, medium or low To be determined adaptive capacity to respond to through consultation Increased exposure to pests such as with key stakeholders eldana, chilo and codling moth?
To be determined Do you have high, medium or low through consultation adaptive capacity to respond to with key stakeholders Increased risks to livestock?
LGCCSP Indicator List
Do you have high, medium or low adaptive capacity to respond to Reduced food security?
Adaptive Capacity Answer (High/ Medium /Low)
Municipality Name: Biodiversity and Environment
No
Indicator Title
Indicator Description
Exposure Question
Increased impacts on threatened 13 ecosystems
Loss of threatened ecosystems due to changes in climate.
Do you currently have high priority biomes in your area? Do you currently have threatened ecosystems in your area? (Classified as critically endangered, endangered or vulnerable)
Increased impacts on environment due to land-use 14 change
Loss of biodiversity and degradation of natural habitat due to significant land use change (such as alien invasion, soil erosion and urbanisation) which impacts on ability to respond to climate change
Are you currently experiencing land use change?
Loss of Priority Wetlands and River 15 ecosystems
Do you have priority wetlands Changes in rainfall patterns and temperature and river ecosystems in are likely to impact on wetlands and the your area? ecosystem services they provide.
Loss of High 12 Priority Biomes
High Priority Biomes (including Grasslands, Nama-Karoo, Indian Ocean Coastal Belt, Fynbos, Forest) to be replaced by other biomes such as savanna and desert.
Exposure Answer (yes/no)
Source of information
Sensitivity Question How much of this High Priority Biome will be lost due to climate change?
LGCCSP Biome Map
A significant amount= High; A moderate amount= Medium; None/a low amount = Low
How much of your Municipality is covered by threatened ecosystems?
LGCCSP Threatened Ecosystem Map
A significant amount= High; A moderate amount= Medium; None/a low amount = Low
Sensitivity Answer (High/ Medium/ Low)
Source of information
Adaptive Capacity Question
LTAS Phase 1 Climate and Impacts Factsheet Series Factsheet 7 of 7 Do you have high, medium or low Climate Change And adaptive capacity to respond to Loss of Biodiversity High Priority Biomes?
LTAS Phase 1 Climate and Impacts Factsheet Series Factsheet 7 of 7 Climate Change And Biodiversity
Do you have high, medium or low adaptive capacity to respond to Increased impacts on threatened ecosystems?
Have you experienced significant loss of habitat since 1990?
SANBI Land Cover Map
Above 10% = High; Between 5-10% = Medium; Under 5%= Low How important are wetlands and river ecosystems in providing ecosystem services in your Municipality?
SANBI National Wetlands and NFEPA Map
A significant amount= High; A moderate amount= Medium; None/a low amount = Low
Do you have high, medium or low To be determined adaptive capacity to respond to through consultation Increased impacts on environment due with key stakeholders to land-use change? LTAS Phase 1 Climate and Impacts Factsheet Series Factsheet 7 of 7 Do you have high, medium or low Climate Change And adaptive capacity to respond to Loss of Biodiversity Priority Wetlands and River ecosystems?
Adaptive Capacity Answer (High/ Medium /Low)
Municipality Name: Coastal and Marine
No
Indicator Title
Indicator Description
Exposure Question
Exposure Answer (yes/no)
Source of information
Sensitivity Question
Impacts on Marine and Benthic 16 Ecosystems
Changes in precipitation and freshwater flow; sea-level rise; increased temperatures and coastal storminess have led to changes in physical processes and biological responses which impacts marine and benthic Does this or will ecosystems. this take place in your area?
Critically Endangered and Endangered = LTAS Phase 1 High; Marine Fisheries Fact Vulnerable = Medium; Sheet Least Threatened = low
Impacts on estuary 17 ecosystems
Changes in precipitation and freshwater flow; sea-level rise; increased temperatures and coastal storminess have led to changes in Does this or will physical processes and biological responses this take place which impacts on estuarine ecosystems. in your area?
LTAS Phase 1 Critically or Seriously Modified = High; Marine Fisheries Fact Largely or Moderately Modified = Medium; Sheet Unmodified or Natural = Low
Impacts on Coastal 18 Livelihoods
An increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events is likely to impact on Does this or will fishing activity by reducing the number of this take place viable sea fishing days, affecting catches. in your area?
Coastal Viewer High Priority = High; Department of Medium Priority = Medium; Environmental Affairs Low/No Priority = Low
Sensitivity Answer (High/ Medium/ Low)
Source of information
Adaptive Capacity Question
LGCCSP Marine Benthic and Coastal Threat Status Map
Do you have high, medium or low adaptive capacity to respond to Impacts on Marine and Benthic Ecosystems?
LGCCSP National Estuaries Map
Do you have high, medium or low adaptive capacity to respond to Impacts on estuary ecosystems?
What is the Benthic Coastal Threat Status of the area?
Have estuaries in the area been modified?
How important is fishing to the local economy and livelihoods? To be determined Do you have high, medium or low through consultation adaptive capacity to respond to Impacts with key stakeholders on Coastal Livelihoods?
Do you have significant areas below 5m elevation?
Loss of land due to sea level Increased loss of land due to sea level rise 19 rise and storm surges
Increased damage to property from 20 sea level rise
Increased damage to property and damage to infrastructure (including coastal roads and railways, small fishing ports and harbours, and critical infrastructure such as Koeberg nuclear power station) as a result of rising sea-levels and storm surges.
Does this or will this take place in your area?
Does this or will this take place in your area?
LTAS Phase 2 Technical Report 3 of 7 Disaster Risk Significant fisheries = High; Reduction and Some fisheries = Medium; Management Few or no fisheries = Low LTAS Phase 2 Technical Report 3 of 7 Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
LGCCSP 5.5m Elevation Map
Do you have high, medium or low adaptive capacity to respond to Loss of land due to sea level rise?
Do you have significant areas below 5m elevation? Significant areas = High; Some areas = Medium; Few or no areas = Low
Do you have high, medium or low To be determined adaptive capacity to respond to through consultation Increased damage to property from sea with key stakeholders level rise?
Adaptive Capacity Answer (High/ Medium /Low)
Municipality Name: Human Health
No
Indicator Title
Indicator Description
Exposure Question
Exposure Answer (yes/no)
Source of information
Sensitivity Question
Sensitivity Answer (High/ Medium/ Low)
Source of information
Adaptive Capacity Question
How populated are areas vulnerable to storms events (e.g flood zones)?
Health impacts from increased 21 storm events
Increased storms will result increased risk of drowning, injuries and population displacement impacts.
Are you or will you experience increased storm events in your area?
LTAS Phase 1 Technical Report - No Densely populated = High; 1 of 6 - Climate Partially populated = Medium; Trends And Scenarios Sparsely or not populated = Low For South Africa
Increased heat 22 stress
Increases in average temperatures and extreme events (such as heat waves) are projected to induce heat stress, increase morbidity, and result in respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.
Are you or will you experience increased heat waves in your area?
LTAS Phase 1 Technical Report - No 1 of 6 - Climate Trends And Scenarios For South Africa
To be determined Do you have high, medium or low through consultation adaptive capacity to respond to Health with key stakeholders impacts from increased storm events?
Is there a high percentage of young and elderly in the area? More than 20% = high; Between 15% & 20% = Medium; Less than 15% = low
LGCCSP Indicator List
Do you have high, medium or low adaptive capacity to respond to Increased heat stress?
Are you in or neighbouring an area with vector borne diseases (e.g malaria)? Increased vector borne diseases from spread of mosquitoes, ticks, sandflies, 23 and blackflies
Vector borne diseases such as malaria is projected to spread within regions bordering current malaria areas, which are presently too cold for transmission.
Are vector borne diseases present or likely in your area?
LTAS Phase 1 Technical Report - No 4 of 6 - Climate Change Implications For Human Health In South Africa
Increased water borne and communicable diseases (e.g typhoid fever, cholera and 24 hepatitis)
Favourable conditions for the incubation and transmission of waterborne diseases may be created by increasing air and water temperatures.
Are waterborne and communicable diseases present or likely in your area?
LTAS Phase 1 Technical Report - No 4 of 6 - Climate Change Implications For Human Health In South Africa
Increased malnutrition and hunger as a result of food 25 insecurity
Climate Change will affect food systems, compromising food availability, access and utilisation, leading to food insecurity (particularly of subsistence farmers).
Do you or will you have food insecurity in your area?
AGIS Food Security Atlas (Maize Estimated yield (ISCW))
Increased air 26 pollution
Health impacts in resulting from exposure to air pollutants include eye irritation, acute respiratory infection, chronic respiratory diseases and TB, and sometimes death.
Do you or will you have air pollution in your area?
LTAS Phase 1 Technical Report - No 2 of 6 - Climate Change Implications For The Water Sector In South Africa
Do people work outside or are in conditions that cannot be cooled in your area?
LTAS Phase 1 Technical Report - No 2 of 6 - Climate Change Implications For The Water Sector In South Africa
Already in a vector borne disease area = High; Neighbouring a vector borne disease area = Medium; Not near a vector borne disease area = Low Have you had an incidence of waterborne and communicable diseases (e.g typhoid fever, cholera and hepatitis) in the past 3 years Yes = High: No = Low
Do you have high, medium or low adaptive capacity to respond to Increased vector borne diseases from Malaria Risk Map for spread of mosquitoes, ticks, sandflies, South Africa and blackflies?
Do you have high, medium or low adaptive capacity to respond to To be determined Increased water borne and through consultation communicable diseases (e.g typhoid with key stakeholders fever, cholera and hepatitis)?
Child under 5 years severe acute malnutrition case fatality rate
Temperature is a common climatic factor that Increased affects occupational health (for example, Occupational agricultural labourer’s productivity) by 27 health problems causing heat stress and dehydration.
More than 10% = high; Between 5% & 10% = Medium; Less than 5% = low
LGCCSP Indicator List
Do you have high, medium or low adaptive capacity to respond to Increased malnutrition and hunger as a result of food insecurity?
LGCCSP Air Quality Priority Areas Map
Do you have high, medium or low adaptive capacity to respond to Increased air pollution?
Would you consider your area a high priority in terms of air pollution (e.g SAAQIS Priority Areas)? Yes = High; Somewhat = Medium; No = Low Do a significant percentage of people work outside or are in conditions that cannot be cooled? Significant = High; Some = Medium; Low/No = Low
Do you have high, medium or low To be determined adaptive capacity to respond to through consultation Increased Occupational health with key stakeholders problems?
Adaptive Capacity Answer (High/ Medium /Low)
Municipality Name: Human Settlements
No
Indicator Title
Indicator Description
Exposure Question
Exposure Answer (yes/no)
Source of information
Sensitivity Question
Sensitivity Answer (High/ Medium/ Low)
Source of information
Adaptive Capacity Question
Adaptive Capacity Answer (High/ Medium /Low)
Municipality Name: Water
No
Indicator Title
Indicator Description
Exposure Question
Exposure Answer (yes/no)
Source of information
Sensitivity Question
Sensitivity Answer (High/ Medium/ Low)
Source of information
Adaptive Capacity Question
What is the Blue Drop Score for the area (2012 Report)?
LTAS Phase 1 Technical Report 2 of 6 Climate Change Less than 50% = high; Impacts for the Water Between 50% & 90% = Medium; Sector In South Africa More than 90% = low
DWA Blue Drop Score
Do you have high, medium or low adaptive capacity to respond to Decreased quality of drinking water?
What is the Green Drop Score for the area? LTAS Phase 2 Technical Report 6 of Less than 50% = high; 7 Future Climates In Between 50% & 90% = Medium; South Africa More than 90% = low
DWA Green Drop Score
Do you have high, medium or low adaptive capacity to respond to Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and droughts?
Is this or will this take place in your area?
LTAS Phase 1 Technical Report 2 of 6 Climate Change Impacts for the Water Sector In South Africa
Do you have high, medium or low To be determined adaptive capacity to respond to Less through consultation water available for irrigation and with key stakeholders drinking?
Human health and ecosystem impacts, associated with increased rainfall intensities, flash floods and regional flooding resulting in litter and washed-off debris blocking water and sanitation systems.
Is this or will this take place in your area?
Percentage of Households using no rubbish disposal LTAS Phase 2 Technical Report 6 of More than 10% = High; 7 Future Climates In Between 10% & 5% = Medium; South Africa Less than 5% = Low
Increased freshwater fish mortality due to reduced oxygen concentrations in aquatic environments and mortality of temperaturesensitive fish species.
Do you have fresh water fish in your area?
LTAS Phase 1 Technical Report 2 of 6 Climate Change Impacts for the Water Sector In South Africa
Decreased quality of 35 drinking water
Deterioration in water quality due to increased salt concentrations in dams, wetlands and soil/plant systems from enhanced evaporation rates.
Decreased water quality in ecosystem due to floods and 36 droughts
More frequent floods result in increased effluent overflow into rivers. Increased drought mean less water is available to dilute Is this or will wastewater discharges and irrigation return this take place flows to rivers. in your area?
Less water available for irrigation and 37 drinking
Increased periods of drought mean less water is available.
Increased impacts of flooding from litter blocking 38 sewer system
Increased fish 39 mortality
Is this or will this take place in your area?
Years of drought over the past 20 years More than 7 incidence = High; Between 7 & 2 incidence = Medium; Less than 2 incidence = Low;
LGCCSP Indicator List
Do you have high, medium or low adaptive capacity to respond to Increased impacts of flooding from litter blocking sewer system?
How significant is fresh water fish to livelihoods? Significant to livelihoods = High; Some dependence = Medium; Low/No dependence = Low
To be determined Do you have high, medium or low through consultation adaptive capacity to respond to with key stakeholders Increased fish mortality?
Adaptive Capacity Answer (High/ Medium /Low)
