Theme 6 Project 3.4
Structural Change in Australian Agriculture: Implications for Natural Resource Management
Neil Barr Natural Resources and Environment Victoria
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Contents Summary ..................................................................................................................... 1
Introduction ................................................................................................................ 3 The incremental model of catchment management .................................................................3 The landscape change paradigm of catchment management .................................................3 Report Structure........................................................................................................................4
Study background ...................................................................................................... 5 Data Sources ............................................................................................................................5 Population and Housing Census .........................................................................................5 Farm Census Commodity Items ..........................................................................................5 Some Important Definitions.......................................................................................................6 What is a Statistical Local Area ...........................................................................................6 Estimated Value of Agricultural Operations (EVAO) ...........................................................6 Farm Establishment.............................................................................................................6 Farmer .................................................................................................................................6 Farm Family .........................................................................................................................7 Data sets used ..........................................................................................................................8 Seasonal conditions and market prices in the census years....................................................9
The structure of the Australian agricultural sector in 1986 ................................... 12 Agriculture in the Landscape ..................................................................................................12 Agriculture and the regional workforce ...................................................................................14 Number of farm establishments..............................................................................................16 Number of farm families..........................................................................................................18 Ratio of farm families to farm establishments.........................................................................20 Median farm financial size ......................................................................................................22 Farm land controlled by economically large farms .................................................................24 Farm family income.................................................................................................................28 FM500 Financial Sustainability Benchmarks..........................................................................32
A Regional Classification......................................................................................... 36
Creation of a classification analysis...................................................................................36 The regions ........................................................................................................................36
Adjustment strategies and outcomes 1986-96 ....................................................... 43 Exiting Farming .......................................................................................................................43 Entering Farming ....................................................................................................................49 Net change in farmer numbers ...............................................................................................56 Net change in farm family numbers ........................................................................................60 Net change in farm establishment numbers ...........................................................................63 Changes in the ratio of farm families to farm establishments.................................................67 Bifurcation: Is there a disappearing middle?...........................................................................70 Change in farm size as measured by Estimated Value of Agricultural Production ................74 Changed dependence on off-farm income .............................................................................78 Spatial patterns of farm migration...........................................................................................82 Relative patterns of farm migration.........................................................................................86 Ageing of the farmer population..............................................................................................90
The future structure of agriculture and catchment communities ......................... 96 The long term nature of required change ...............................................................................96 Building a model of farm demographics .................................................................................97 Low adjustment and high adjustment scenarios.....................................................................97 The Fast Adjustment Scenario ...............................................................................................98 The Slow Adjustment Scenario.............................................................................................102 Pressures for change and what can’t be modelled...............................................................106 Economic forces ..............................................................................................................106 Changing social values and structures............................................................................107 Broader environmental factors.........................................................................................110 Future social landscapes ......................................................................................................110 Taking the long view .............................................................................................................111 Keeping an eye on things: Monitoring and data ...................................................................112
References .............................................................................................................. 115
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Introduction The incremental model of catchment management
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Study background Data Sources
Population and Housing Census
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Some Important Definitions
What is a Statistical Local Area
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Seasonal conditions and market prices in the census years
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1991 Census
1996 Census
Indexed prices received
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Sheep Meat Wool
80
Beef
60 40 20
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1986 Census
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40 20
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Number of farm families Data Sources
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% of establishments
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Cumulative distribution
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Australian Families Australian Farm Families
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25 20 1986
15
1991 10
1996
5 0 Less than 5
6-15
16-24 25-35 36-49 50-74
75+
Farm Family Income in 1996 dollars ($000’s)
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Data Source:
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12000.00
10000.00
Nu 8000.00 mb er of exi 6000.00 ts
1986-91 1991-96
4000.00
2000.00
0.00 20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Age cohort
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16.00
Annual percent rate of exit
14.00 12.00 10.00 1986-91
8.00
1991-96
6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
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7000.00 6000.00 5000.00 4000.00 3000.00 2000.00 1000.00 0.00 15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
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Age cohort 1986
1991
1996
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Farmers
25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Year 1986
1996
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% change in farmer numbers
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140000
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100 80
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100000
40 90000
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Dairy Sheep Meat Wool Wheat Beef Establishments
80000
19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96
0
Number of farm establishments with EVAO > $32,000
Commodity price (indexed to 1982 = 100)
160
Year
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Wheat/sheep zone broadacre farms
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200000
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Median Age
Number of Farmers
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1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
Year Number of farmers
Number of exits over 5 years
Number of entries over 5 years
Median Farmer Age
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Number of farmers
30000.00 1996
25000.00
2001 20000.00
2006
15000.00
2011 2016
10000.00
2021
5000.00 0.00 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ Age Cohort
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300000
52 51
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45 44 43
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2016
2021
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Number of exits over 5 years
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Median Farmer Age
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Number of farmers
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25000.00
2001 20000.00
2006
15000.00
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10000.00
2021
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