Credit Ratings, credit rating agencies & NZ’s rating David Tripe November 2011

Credit ratings, credit rating agencies  and New Zealand’s rating David Tripe Massey University

Who are the agencies? • Moodys • Standard & Poor’s • Fitch Classed as “Nationally recognised statistical  rating organisations” (NRSROs) by the SEC in  the USA

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What are ratings? • Opinions on the risk of default (non‐payment)  in respect of debt • Historical records show relationship between  credit ratings and risk of default (or ratings  change) for corporate debt

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What are the risks applying to New  Zealand? • Government debt – not large, unlikely to  adversely affect the country’s rating • Private debt – quite large in international  terms • Trend in private debt – steadily increasing  through financing of the balance of payments  deficit on current account

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Debt to GDP – international  comparisons (%) Japan Greece Italy Belgium Ireland United States Portugal

220 143 119 97 94 94 93

Canada Germany United Kingdom Spain Czech Republic New Zealand Australia

83 83 77 61 38 32 26

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Could New Zealand face a further  downgrade Yes! Costs (in terms of higher interest rates) might  not be too severe But interest costs also depend on the credit  ratings of the banks Risk is of a sudden stop – much higher interest  rates and a severe decline in the value of the  New Zealand dollar 8

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