Western  Demographics,  Inc.   1750  30th  St.,  #424,  Boulder,  CO  80301   303-­877-­7557  

     

October 5, 2015 Dr. Brad Meeks, Superintendent Steamboat Springs School District RE-2 325 7th Street Steamboat Springs, CO 80487 Dear Dr. Meeks: I have re-examined the School Enrollment Forecast and Demographic Observations document provided by my firm on January 9th, 2015 within the context of actual enrollments provided by your office earlier in September. My observations are as follows: 1. The district has grown 1.9 percent by approximately 47 students from last October. 2. The enrollment forecast provided at the time is fundamentally sound with the exception of overall kindergarten enrollment with a shortage of 24 kindergarten students when measured against the moderate or the middle forecast model in my projections. The forecasting model used is a standard linear cohort survival school enrollment projection based on my 31 years experience conducting this work in Colorado. The district was forced to transfer 20 kindergarten students from Soda Creek Elementary to Strawberry Park Elementary in order to alleviate overly-stressed building functions at Soda Creek. The school-level forecast was not adjusted to reflect this in my report. 3. Economic indicators for Routt County and the Steamboat Springs community in general continue to be strong with an increase in employment from 13,694 (2013) jobs to 13,852 (2014) jobs according to the Colorado Department of Labor. 4. Unemployment rates have declined from 5.8 percent in 2013 to a very low 4.2 percent in 2014. 5. I have requested 2014 birth data for the SSSD boundary from the Colorado Department of Health and expect to obtain that data this week. Birth data for the district is collected from this agency and not from the local hospital and I use this source for all kindergarten and birth forecasting with all of my clients. High migration communities such as Steamboat Springs tend to benefit more from kindergarten trending than from birth rate correlation, but I continue to consider both. SSSD kindergarten enrollment trends have been strongly upward during the past eight years and, Nationwide, the average family moves every five years. Therefore, it is frequently more important to closely follow kindergarten enrollment (which is more tied to in-migration) while also monitoring birth rates. Colorado’s net in-migration for adults aged 25 – 44 now ranks fifth Nationally up from 10th in the prior decade. Colorado is alone among surrounding mountain states in this regard and the leading attractor cited by new residents is quality of life, a factor that the SSSD community has in abundance. 6. I have polled a few of my Steamboat Springs contacts who have observed favorable economic conditions, but challenging housing prices for potential residents. In the event that Steamboat 700 and other west-end developments are able to offer affordable housing options, increased student enrollments could result.

Dr. Brad Meeks October 5, 2015 Page 2 Based on these preliminary observations and other observations elsewhere in the State, I would offer the following findings: 1. Although my original work is approaching one year in age, I continue to support the five-year enrollment forecast ranges presented in my report. 2. With such a small kindergarten sample size, responding to a reduced kindergarten enrollment in one year is problematic. The effect on five-year expectations should involve significant care and potentially another year of data before re-forecasting for long-range projections. Polling private kindergarten providers, who may have expanded opportunities over the summer, may be valuable. Next year’s resulting first grade enrollment could be impacted if private programs produce more students. 3. Other districts elsewhere in the State have been surprised by lower-than-expected kindergarten enrollments this year and the school demographers involved are working to develop hypotheses during the coming six months. Odd theories about child production during recession years and other hypotheses are being tested. 4. The reputation of the school district continues to be a significant draw for the Steamboat Springs community and 47 new students this year and the continuing positive atmosphere will continue to draw families. National trends of in-migration to States with high quality of life continue to point to SSSD as a long-term player. 5. It has been my opinion throughout this examination that the current conditions in the two elementary schools are well past the breaking point just given existing enrollment. Additional facilities are clearly necessary. 6. I am also convinced that existing conditions at the Middle School are significantly strained and that the spaces and resources in the middle school building are significantly below average Colorado specifications, especially for non-core academic programs. Further, the non-core portion of the building is significantly below the standards SSSD parents should expect. Non-core programs include music, physical education, electives and world languages. Core academic programs: Math, Language Arts, Social Studies and Science - are intensively scheduled in a tightlypacked classroom clusters in a building designed according to 1970’s or 1980’s specifications. The Strawberry Park ES / Middle School Site is a significant challenge from a transportation perspective with the only remedy being reduction in traffic volume resulting from having fewer students on the site. These observations and findings represent my best efforts to quickly examine conditions in the district given limited time. It would be my desire to further network with other professionals in Steamboat Springs, Routt County and elsewhere in the State before changing my expectations of SSSD demographics during the next five years. At this point in time, I continue to have confidence in the document provided by my firm on January 9th for use as a decision support instrument for school facilities. Please let me know if I may provide further information or assistance to the district. Sincerely,

Shannon L. Bingham President, Western Demographics, Inc