MEDIA INQUIRIES:
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
Conservative Lead Grows Trudeau’s disapproval high Toronto, May 17th, 2018 – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1484 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, if an election were held today, almost half (46%) say they would support the Conservatives, while a third (30%) say they would support the Liberals. One-fifth (18%) say they would support the NDP. Few say they would support the Green Party (4%), BQ (2%), or another party (1%). Respondents most likely to say they support the Conservatives include those aged 45-54 (50%), 55-64 (48%), or 65+ (48%), males (52%), earning $60,000$80,000 (54%), the least educated (52%), and living in Alberta (65%).
“The Conservatives have strengthened their lead over the governing Liberals going into the summer break,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “The Prime Minister is seeing a high level of disapproval right now and that could account for the lack of support for his party.”
Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include those aged 4554 (35%) or 65+ (34%), with a college/university (32%) or post-graduate degree (35%), and living in the Atlantic provinces (44%). Respondents most likely to say they support the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (31%), females (21%), the least wealthy (25%) or earning $20,000$40,000 (24%), and living in BC (28%).
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180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
Conservative Majority Based on these results, we project the Conservatives would secure a majority government with 234 seats. The Liberals would serve as official opposition with 72 seats, and the NDP would secure 30 seats. The BQ and the Green party would secure 1 seat each.
Trudeau Approval Down, Disapproval Up Justin Trudeau sees approval from a third (35%) and disapproval from more than half (56%). 1 in 10 say they do not know (9%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -21. Andrew Scheer sees approval from a third (31%) and disapproval from a third (34%). A third say they do not know (35%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -3. Jagmeet Singh sees approval from one-quarter (27%) and disapproval from a third (35%). 4 in 10 (38%) say they do not know. His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is -8.
“The Conservatives have strengthened their lead over the governing Liberals going into the summer break,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “The Prime Minister is seeing a high level of disapproval right now and that could account for the lack of support for his party.” Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at
[email protected] or at (416) 960-9603.
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180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
Methodology The Forum Poll™ was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1484 randomly selected Canadian Voters. The poll was conducted May 15-16, 2018. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Actual results depend on the parties’ ability to get their voters out. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. Forum houses its poll results in the Data Library of the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian-owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research firms. This Forum Poll™and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at www.forumresearch.com/polls.asp
3
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
Support Trending
% 15th-16th,
May 2018 April 19th-20th, 2018 February 27th-March 1st, 2018 January 22nd-24th, 2018 December 12th-14th, 2017 November 4th-6th, 2017 September 13th-14th, 2017 August 16th-17th, 2017 June 6th-8th , 2017 April 21st-24th, 2017 Mar 22nd - 23rd, 2017 Feb. 24th - 26th, 2017 Jan. 19th -21st, 2017 Dec. 6th-8th, 2016 November 9th-10th, 2016 October 11th-12th September 20-21st, 2016 September 7th, 2016 August 6th, 2016 July 6th, 2016 June 7th, 2016 April 4th-5th, 2016 March 15th, 2016 Feb. 16th-17th, 2016 Dec. 6th-8th, 2015 November 17th, 2015 Nov. 4th-7th, 2015 Election: Oct. 19th, 2015 October 18th, 2015 Oct. 13th-14th, 2015 Oct. 9th, 2015 Oct 5th-6th, 2015 Sept. 28-29th, 2015
4
Sample
Cons
Lib
NDP
Green
Bloc
Other
1484 1585
46 43
30 30
18 14
4 8
2 4
1 1
941
46
34
14
3
2
1
1408
43
38
12
3
3
0
1284
39
38
12
5
5
1
1281
38
36
14
6
6
1
1350
39
35
15
4
5
1
1150
35
42
14
4
4
1
1483 1479 1029 1340 1332 1304
34 35 38 35 36 34
42 35 36 39 42 42
12 17 15 15 12 12
6 7 4 4 5 6
5 5 6 7 4 5
1 1 0 1 1 1
1474
28
51
11
5
4
1
1384
30
49
12
4
5
1
1326
34
47
9
3
6
0
1370 1345 1429 2271 1455 1567 1406 1369 909 1256
30 31 28 32 28 34 32 32 37 25
48 50 52 49 51 46 49 46 45 55
11 10 11 10 12 12 10 13 10 12
4 4 3 4 3 3 5 4 3 3
5 4 5 4 6 4 3 4 4 4
0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
32
40
20
3
5
0
30 31 31 31 34
40 37 37 35 27
20 24 23 26 28
3 2 3 3 5
6 6 5 4 5
1 1 1 1 1
1373 1438 1427 1447 1449
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
Seat Distribution Projection Trending
% April 19th-20th, 2018 February
27th-March
1st,
2018
Lib
NDP
Green
Bloc
Other
234
72
30
1
1
0
207
100
23
2
6
0
213
99
24
1
1
0
January 22nd-24th, 2018
181
142
14
1
0
0
December 12th-14th, 2017
147
166
15
1
9
0
148
164
15
2
11
0
November
4th-6th,
September
13th-14th,
2017 2017
169
130
26
1
12
0
August 16th-17th, 2017
105
211
16
1
5
0
June 6th-8th, 2017
113
204
15
1
5
0
137
152
36
1
12
0
April Mar
21st-24th,
22nd
–
2017
23rd,
2017
170
128
26
1
13
0
February 24th – 26th, 2017
120
174
20
1
23
0
January 19th – 21st, 2017
131
187
15
1
4
0
18
1
4
0
Dec.
5
Cons
May 15th-16th, 2018
6th-8th,
2016
135
180
November 9th-10th, 2016
72
257
8
1
0
0
October 11th-12th September 20-21st, 2016 September 7th, 2016 August 6th, 2016 July 6th, 2016 June 7th, 2016 April 4th-5th, 2016 March 15th, 2016 February 16th-17th, 2016 December 6th-8th, 2015 November 17th, 2015 November 4th-7th, 2015 Election: October 19th, 2015 October 18th, 2015 Oct. 13th-14th, 2015 October 9th, 2015 October 5th-6th, 2015 September 28-29th, 2015 September 21-23rd, 2015 September 18th, 2015 September 14-15th, 2015
83 111 87 81 55 98 74 111 91 99 108 57 99 109 114 116 122 151 125 145 138
240 219 238 246 278 230 256 215 240 224 222 276 184 171 127 145 120 76 107 97 86
14 7 8 10 5 9 5 11 6 14 6 5 44 46 77 69 94 104 104 95 113
1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 4 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 10 11 19 7 1 6 1 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
Trudeau Approval Trending
%
Approve
Disapprove
Don't Know
May 16th, 2018 April 27th, 2018 February 4th, 2018 December 19th, 2017 September 24th, 2017 August 29th, 2017 March 9th, 2017 April 27th, 2017 January 24th, 2017 December 10, 2016 November 27th, 2016 October 13, 2016 September 26th 2016 September 13th, 2016 August 8th, 2016 July 6th, 2016 June 10th, 2016 May 16th, 2016 April 9th, 2016 March 18th, 2016 February 20th, 2016 December 11th, 2015 November 11th, 2015
35 33 44 42 43 49 45 42 48 51 58 56 54 55 60 62 57 57 58 54 57 57 60
56 58 47 47 47 42 44 47 42 39 32 35 35 36 30 29 33 34 33 35 34 30 20
9 9 9 11 11 10 11 10 9 10 10 9 11 9 10 10 10 9 9 11 9 13 20
Scheer Approval Trending
%
Approve
Disapprove
Don't Know
May 16th, 2018 April 27th, 2018 February 4th, 2018 December 19th, 2017 September 24th, 2018 August 29th, 2017
31 31 28 28 26 25
34 29 29 28 30 26
35 40 43 44 44 48
Singh Approval Trending
6
%
Approve
Disapprove
Don't Know
May 16th, 2018 April 27th, 2018 February 4th, 2018 December 19th, 2017
27 24 26 28
35 39 29 27
38 39 46 45
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
Voter intention If a federal election were held today, which party are you most likely to vote for? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time? [Decided and leaning] Age/Gender
%
Total
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Male
Female
Sample Conservative Liberal New Democratic Green Bloc Quebecois Other
1398 46 30 18 4 2 1
204 37 26 31 4 0 1
175 47 26 16 8 2 1
188 50 35 11 1 1 1
328 48 30 16 4 2 0
503 48 34 14 2 2 1
739 52 29 14 3 2 1
634 40 32 21 4 2 1
%
Total
<$20K
Sample Conservative Liberal New Democratic Green Bloc Quebecois Other
1398 46 30
Income 121 39 25
$20$40K 240 36 31
$40$60K 204 48 31
$60$80K 168 54 22
$80$100K 139 50 32
$100$250K 240 48 33
18
25
24
16
19
14
15
4 2 1
6 4 2
5 3 1
4 1 0
2 2 1
3 1 1
3 0 1
Region
7
%
Total
ATL
QC
ON
MB/SK
AB
BC
Sample Conservative Liberal New Democratic Green Bloc Quebecois Other
1398 46 30 18 4 2 1
181 39 44 12 4 0 1
262 38 35 14 5 7 1
331 46 30 20 3 0 1
255 53 21 21 4 0 1
198 65 24 10 2 0 0
171 40 27 28 4 0 0
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES: Education
8
382 48 26
Completed college or university 498 44 32
Post graduate studies 261 41 35
14
18
20
17
4
3
5
3
4
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
%
Total
Secondary school or less
Some college or university
Sample Conservative Liberal New Democratic Green Bloc Quebecois Other
1398 46 30
257 52 28
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Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
Trudeau approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Justin Trudeau is doing as Prime Minister? Age/Gender
%
Total
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Male
Female
Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know
1484 35 56 9
215 39 53 8
182 36 55 9
201 35 56 8
347 32 59 9
539 34 56 10
771 31 62 7
688 39 50 11
%
Total
<$20K
$20-$40K
$40-$60K
$60-$80K
$80-$100K
$100-$250K
Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know
1484 35 56 9
133 39 49 12
253 33 55 12
211 37 55 7
182 23 67 11
146 35 58 7
249 42 52 6
Income
Education 1484 35 56
Secondary school or less 274 30 61
Some college or university 404 33 60
Completed college or university 529 37 52
Post graduate studies 277 40 54
9
9
8
11
6
%
Total
Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know
Region
%
Total
ATL
QC
ON
MB/SK
AB
BC
Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know
1484 35 56 9
200 42 51 7
284 40 47 13
348 36 55 8
271 26 62 12
203 20 72 8
178 36 60 4
Voter Intention
9
%
Total
Conservative
Liberal
Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know
1484 35 56
621 7 90
400 79 12
New Democratic 228 40 49
9
3
9
11
81 31 53
Bloc Quebecois 25 24 55
16
21
Green
Other 43 17 72 12
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
Andrew Scheer approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Andrew Scheer is doing as leader of the opposition? Age/Gender
%
Total
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Male
Female
Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know
1484 31 34 35
215 23 43 34
182 35 29 36
201 33 32 36
347 36 30 34
539 35 29 36
771 38 35 26
688 25 32 44
%
Total
<$20K
$20-$40K
$40-$60K
$60-$80K
$80-$100K
$100-$250K
Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know
1484 31 34 35
133 24 25 51
253 26 27 47
211 34 38 28
182 35 36 29
146 33 33 34
249 34 40 26
Income
Education 1484 31 34
Secondary school or less 274 31 27
Some college or university 404 34 27
Completed college or university 529 31 38
Post graduate studies 277 29 40
35
42
39
31
31
%
Total
Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know
Region
%
Total
ATL
QC
ON
MB/SK
AB
BC
Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know
1484 31 34 35
200 31 29 39
284 34 29 37
348 29 40 32
271 33 27 39
203 35 30 36
178 31 32 37
Voter Intention
%
Total
Conservative
Liberal
Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know
1484 31 34
621 62 12
400 13 49
New Democratic 228 13 56
35
26
38
31
10
81 25 29
Bloc Quebecois 25 21 23
46
56
Green
Other 43 6 42 52
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES: Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
Jagmeet Singh approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jagmeet Singh is doing as leader of the NDP? Age/Gender
%
Total
18-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Male
Female
Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know
1484 27 35 38
215 36 29 35
182 25 33 42
201 31 34 36
347 22 44 34
539 15 40 45
771 28 42 30
688 26 29 45
%
Total
<$20K
$20-$40K
$40-$60K
$60-$80K
$80-$100K
$100-$250K
Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know
1484 27 35 38
133 28 28 44
253 30 22 48
211 27 41 33
182 29 36 35
146 23 39 38
249 33 36 31
Income
Region 1484 27 35
Secondary school or less 274 22 36
Some college or university 404 22 40
Completed college or university 529 30 31
Post graduate studies 277 32 35
38
41
38
39
33
%
Total
Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know
Education
%
Total
ATL
QC
ON
MB/SK
AB
BC
Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know
1484 27 35 38
200 25 32 43
284 31 27 43
348 29 35 36
271 26 40 34
203 17 46 36
178 23 41 36
Voter Intention
%
Total
Conservative
Liberal
Sample Approve Disapprove Don’t know
1484 27 35
621 13 56
400 32 26
New Democratic 228 61 12
38
31
42
27
11
81 24 23
Bloc Quebecois 25 20 26
54
54
Green
Other 43 3 52 45
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) 960-9603 Fax: (416) 960-9602 E-mail:
[email protected]
12
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected] 416.960.9603
180 Bloor Street W., #1400 Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com