SASKATOON SHOWDOWN EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM MST - OCTOBER 19, 2016 PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 853 Saskatoon Residents by Smart IVR™ on October 17, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 3.36%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.
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ATCHISON PULLS AHEAD TO 30%, MOORE 28% October 19, 2016 (Montréal, QC) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Don Atchison back in the lead with the support of one in three Saskatonians, statistically tied with Kelley Moore. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.36%, 19 times out of 20. “With the race coming to a close it looks like Don Atchison is the favourite at the moment” said David Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet Research. “Mr. Atchison has risen to 30% (up 3%) while Kelley Moore is a close second with 28% (up 1%). Charlie Clark has picked up 2% to rise to 21% with 17% of voters undecided and 4% backing Devon Hein (down 1%).” “Right now the ‘anti-Atchison vote is fractured, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t time for one candidate to consolidate support. The last opportunity will be the CTV debate that will also be broadcast on CKOM. Following a second mayoral debate on CBC’s Saskatoon morning, this will be the last major opportunity for the candidates to make an impact.” “Support is relatively soft among supporter for Kelley Moore and Charlie Clark, so now it will come down to whether one of the two of them can really make an impression at the final debate and the closing days of the campaign. These last few days of the campaign are the most critical, not only do they have a few more days to drive supporters to the advance polls, this is the last opportunity for the campaigns to deploy persuasion before shifting purely into turnout operations on election day.” “We started the race with Mr. Atchison at 29%, now he’s at 30%. Despite the campaign, Atchison has been able to recapture his initial base of support. While we theorized it might not be enough to win at the start of the campaign, now it looks like he may be able to succeed,” finished Valentin. About Mainstreet Research Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. -30Available for Interview from Montréal: David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, Mainstreet Research Call: 514-913-5524 or E-mail:
[email protected]
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If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held today, who would you vote for if the following candidates ran?
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
Undecided
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If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held today, which candidate would you vote for? [DEMOGRAPHIC]
Don Atchison
Sample
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
Undecided
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Male
Female
159
207
251
236
408
445
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If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held today, which candidate would you vote for? [TRACKING, DECIDED ONLY]
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Someone Else
Henry DayDay Devon Hein
Kelley Moore
Undecided
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If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held today, which candidate would you vote for? [DECIDED ONLY]
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
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If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held today, who would you vote for if the following candidates ran? [BY LIKELY VOTERS]
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
Undecided
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Do you consider yourself a strong supporter of this candidate or is there a chance you will change your mind before the election?
Hein
Strong Supporter
Might Change Mind
Not Sure
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Who would be your second choice for mayor? [MIGHT CHANGE/NOT SURE ONLY]
Hein
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
Undecided
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FAVOURABILITY RATINGS
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Familiar
Not Sure
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SCRIPT
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Saskatoon mayoral election? Certain Likely Might Unlikely If the election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held today, which candidate would you vote for? Don Atchison Charlie Clark Kelley Moore Devon Hein Undecided Do you consider yourself a strong supporter of this candidate or is there a chance you will change your mind before the election? [Decided Voters Only] Strong Supporter Might Change Your Mind Not Sure Who would be your second choice? [Might Change Your Mind/Not Sure Voters Only] Don Atchison Charlie Clark Kelley Moore Devon Hein Undecided Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Don Atchison? Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Charlie Clark? Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Kelley Moore? Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Devon Hein? Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar with (Candidate Name)
ONLY WE CALLED THE LIBERAL MAJORITY.
“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interview with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a week before we voted. Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013, in defiance of the majority of the polls. His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015 Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East | Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
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