A POLYCENTRIC FUTURE SYDNEY & SUSTAINABLE RAIL ECONOMICS This discussion paper is not intended to be a specific transport plan. Instead it draws from a range of economic studies and transport plans to highlight three general principles:

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PRINCIPLE 1: Sydney Metro as a “Crossrail-like” network linking up suburban job centres - Massive Western line capacity is freed up (200% increment) if Sydney Metro extended to Liverpool in the right way. (Liverpool extension was proposed by NSW Government in December 2015) - Implies a vision for Sydney Metro as the link between major suburban centres (Liverpool, NW, Parramatta, Hornsby). This will solve fundamental Sydney land use & rail efficiency challenges. PRINCIPLE 2: Allocative efficiency trumps technical efficiency (but both are desirable) - Technical efficiency aims to get lowest cost per km of rail service. Focuses on modernising hardware & staff productivity. Sydney: 30% scope for improvement. - Allocative efficiency aims to get highest patronage per km of rail service. Focuses on network structure, tailoring services & growing customers. 300% improvement scope. - A “world class” Sydney rail system is 90% about allocative cost efficiency (300% vs 30%) PRINCIPLE 3: “Greenfield” rail links financed by & justified by Olympic/Bays precinct urban renewal - Precincts not well served by existing Western line, but have massive land value capture potential - Short term: light rail network from Parramatta to Olympic Park & Strathfield - Long term: new fast rail link for Parramatta, Silverwater/Flemington & White Bay

GENERAL PRINCIPLE 1: Sydney Metro is a “Crossrail-like” network * Massive Western line potential capacity (enough for Sydney w. 10m+ ppl), if Sydney Metro extended to Liverpool in the right manner * Implies the vision for Sydney Metro is to link up major suburban centres (Parramatta, Liverpool, Northwest, Hornsby). * This will solve fundamental Sydney land use & rail efficiency challenges (as seen in next two pages)

SYDNEY LAND USE: Growing mismatch between people and jobs The future of Sydney is to become a polycentric city

ALLOCATIVE INEFFICIENCY: Result of jobs in east (CBD) + sprawling housing Chart below shows NSW’s poor allocative cost metrics are due to the cost of running empty training carriages out to Sydney’s sprawling suburbs. Short trips to CBD in peak hours are profitable (when examined in stand alone isolation), but are actually part of the problem, as they require high train capacities (ie: 8 car trains) in both flow (full) & counterflow (empty) directions. These same 8 car trains then provide too many high cost, empty carrriages for off peak & outer suburban services. (Note: train operating & maintenance costs are primarily determined by carriage kms operated & not the passenger numbers inside them). The outcomes are not only poor cost metrics, but also long off peak wait times due to poor frequencies.

Profitable but still part of overall problem due to lack of service differentiation

Severely loss making. Costs & capacity 5~10x patronage, despite minimal off peak train frequencies (typically 4~6tph vs 20tph during peak)

Source of cost & fare data: Centre for International Economics 2015 study for overall average cost data. IPART 2016 proposed fares for short vs long & peak vs off peak journeys.

KEY PROBLEM IS THEREFORE SYDNEY’S GEOGRAPHY INTERACTING WITH A “ONE SIZE FITS ALL” RAIL SERVICE THAT DOESN’T DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN OUTER VS INNER SUBURBS AND BETWEEN PEAK VS OFF PEAK. To improve allocative efficiency whilst maintaining service levels requires: 1. Better utilising outer suburban & counterflow spare capacity, eg. growing outer suburban employment centres 2. Better utilising/rationalising off peak spare capacity eg. longer trains vs shorter trains, demand management measures 3. Maintain adequate “turn up & go” frequencies (~6 trains per hour) to most of network throughout day cost effectively

SUBURBAN JOB CENTRES: “Brownfield” rail upgrades/extensions * Make better use of counterflow spare capacity (empty trains running against peak hour travel direction). * Key suburban job centres are: - Central corridor: Parramatta and Olympic Corridor - Southwest corridor: Liverpool, Fairfield, Campbelltown. (In future Badgery’s Creek) - Northwest corridor: Macquarie Park, Norwest, Hornsby, Marsden Park - Far west: Penrith, Blacktown * Suburban extensions of Sydney Metro (to Liverpool & brownfield conversion of Hornsby): - Creates 200% capacity increase for Parramatta/Penrith in (existing) Western line tracks - Accelerates job centre growth via reduced travel times & better transport connectivity - historical precedent: Macquarie Park employment has grown rapidly due to new rail link & M2 - without effective rail links: suburban job centres become congested by cars and lack scaleability - Will improve operating cost efficiencies for Sydney Metro & wider rail network

SUBURBAN JOB CENTRES: Linking Parramatta, Liverpool, Penrith & Hornsby Faster travel & lower operating cost for Hornsby & Upper North Shore (15min time saving & bypassing seven stations). Lowers operating costs.

200% more peak hour capacity on Parramatta to Sydney whilst also reducing off peak operating costs

Fast, high capacity cross harbour Sydney Metro tunnel

Higher CBD interchange capacity Better frequency, 10min travel time saving & lower operating cost for Liverpool

SUBURBAN JOB CENTRES: Liverpool extension of Sydney Metro Comparison of Liverpool transport plans: 1. TfNSW (Sydney Metro’s 2015 December industry briefing, page 3): “a potential extension of metro rail to Liverpool, which could cut travel times to the CBD by up to 15 minutes and reduce crowding on the existing T1 Western Line and T2 South Line” 2. Barry Garnham Rail Plan (2013) - commonality with TfNSW: also connects Liverpool to high capacity harbour crossing to NWRL/Hornsby, - difference: metro conversion of Granville corridor (Western line) rather than Bankstown corridor 3. SITS (Chris Stapleton 2009) - commonality with TfNSW: connects Liverpool via a rapid transit corridor to CBD - difference: express rail operates on Granville corridor (Western line) rather than Bankstown corridor 4. “Triple CBD Link” proposal (next page): connects Harris Park, Liverpool & Sydney CBD via Sydney Metro - join up Liverpool as per Sydney Metro proposed extension + take over Cumberland tracks to Harris Park - faster & more frequent Liverpool —> Sydney CBD journeys - faster & more frequent Liverpool —> Parramatta CBD journeys - Granville corridor capacity formerly used by Liverpool is instead allocated to Penrith & Parramatta trains - resulting in: - 200% more capacity on Penrith to Sydney CBD corridor as a “free”/“bonus” byproduct - 9-fold peak vs offpeak service differentiation, with reduced operating costs as a result (yet still maintains “turn up & go” off peak train frequencies) - requires closure/relocation of Yenorra freight use of Cumberland tracks

SUBURBAN JOB CENTRES: Triple CBD link extension of Sydney Metro * Links “triple CBDs” of Parramatta, Liverpool & Sydney, via extension of Sydney Metro to Liverpool * Parramatta via Granville has 200% more capacity (from 24000pax/hr to 70,000pax/hr) as a “free” byproduct

CURRENT CAPACITY (2015): Richmond

Penrith

Western line on single track pair 20tph x 8 car trains = 24,000pax/hr Blacktown

POTENTIAL CAPACITY (2030-2050’s): Northern line < 15tph (has freight conflicts)

Richmond

St Mary

Western lines on quad tracks 45tph, up to 70,000pax/hr

Penrith Blacktown Parramatta

Parramatta Granville Lidcombe Strathfield Homebush Burwood Ashfield Newtown

Innerwest line & South line: 20tph Liverpool

Northern line + turnback at Homebush = 20tph Note: Homebush, Croydon, Burwood & Ashfield to use their West suburban line platforms only. These stations to be bypassed on Penrith to City Circle line

Harris Granville Homebush Pk Lidcombe Strathfield Burwood Ashfield

CBD

Sydney Metro: Harris Park to CBD: 30tph (takes over Cumberland tracks fr Liverpool to Harris Pk)

Newtown

Sydney Metro: 30tph

Bankstown line Bankstown

Current: Parra-CBD capacity limited to 20tph x 8cars = 24000pax/hr. Barriers are: 1. Yellow: Parramatta to CBD trains limited to single track pair at 20 trains per hr. - Higher frequencies (>20tph) not possible due to Town Hall station dwell time limitations. - Post Sydney Metro: trains can terminate at Central hence avoid Town Hall station bottle neck 2. Green: inner west tracks used by Liverpool trains and obstructs use by Parramatta trains. - Post Sydney Metro extension to Liverpool: inner west tracks freed up for Parra-CBD use 3. Orange: Bankstown trains shares city circle with innerwest, restricting capacity of both.

CBD

Liverpool

Bankstown

Future: Parra-CBD increased to 70~75tph using 3 track pairs: 1. Purple: St Mary to Central (20-25tph, 10-12 car trains = up to 45,000pax/hr) Express from Parramatta to Central with only single stop at Strathfield. 2. Yellow: Blue Mts, Penrith & Richmond to City Circle (20tph, 8 car trains = 24000pax/hr). Homebush, Croydon, Burwood & Ashfield are West suburban line stops (not City Circle line) 3. Orange: Harris Park to CBD via Liverpool & Bankstown (30tph, 8 car trains = 45000pax/hr) Note: Yenorra freight use of Cumberland line assumed to be closed/relocated

SUBURBAN JOB CENTRES: Hornsby branch of Sydney Metro GORDON New Sydney Metro stub from Epping-Chatswood tunnel is proposed to connect to Gordon

LINDFIELD

Implementation details: add branch stub during 2018 ECRL shut down, or by using ECRL cross over cavern (under Lady Game drive) to bypass one tunnel at a time and allow stub construction work on bypassed tunnel

SUBURBAN JOB CENTRES: Prioritisation of potential Metro extensions

SUGGESTED PRIORITISATION: - NEXT 10 years: Sydney Metro second harbour crossing & 50% higher Western line capacity via Central interchange onto SydMetro - NEXT 20 years: Sydney Metro to Hornsby and Liverpool & 200% higher Western line capacity via improved sectorisation of existing tracks - NEXT 30-50 years: Ultrahigh 300% capacity increase on Western Sydney/Parramatta to CBD via signal system modernisation of St Mary to Central station tracks, or via new Parramatta Metro

GENERAL PRINCIPLE 2: Allocative efficiency trumps technical efficiency (but both are desirable) * Sydney’s rail network under-performs technical cost benchmarks by 30% but under-performs allocative cost benchmarks by 200-300% * Technical efficiency aims to get lowest cost per km of rail service. Focuses on staff productivity, maintenance efficiencies, better hardware * Allocative efficiency aims to get highest patronage per km of rail service. Focuses on network structure (eg. branching, extension, truncations), tailoring services to suit sub-markets (eg. peak vs offpeak, outer vs inner) & growing customer numbers and demand management

ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY: Trumps technical efficiency

Source of data: Centre for International Economics 2015 Study into NSW rail system efficiency (commissioned by IPART) In (overly) simplistic terms: * Allocative efficiency is about “customers” - ie: rail catchments, land use, tailored services, getting more people onto trains. * Technical efficiency is about “engineering” - ie: maintenance savings, more efficient hardware systems, staff productivity

ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY: Maximising benefit of $10b harbour tunnel Multiple transport plans/proposals have considered the issue of how to maximise the benefits of having dual harbour rail crossings and have a convergence & commonality on the issue of branching & service differentiation as seen below. The next pages give more detailed operating metrics & patronage data to explain the rationale of branching.

ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY: Branching to increase patronage & reduce costs Case Study: Sydney Metro branching from Gordon to Hornsby - see spreadsheet analysis below

A branched NW+Hornsby Metro will remain well under crush capacity & will have plenty of room

Even assuming Singaporean levels of technical efficiency, the cost per trip on unbranched Sydney Metro NW (>$7) is higher than for Sydney Trains (average peak+offpeak = $6.13)

A branched NW+Hornsby Metro has potentially superb cost metrics of under $2/trip once North Shore line’s cost savings included

ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY: Patronage balance between Metro NW & SW Chart 1: Sydney Metro will have excellent long term capacity of 45000pax/hr. Capacity will be plentiful on Sydney Metro for both SW & NW but patronage of NW will only be half that of SW. (Due to both higher Bankstown line patronage, and to interchange from terminating Western line onto Metro SW at Central). Chart 2: Future densification & land use changes: will exacerbate patronage imbalance between NW & SW even further.

ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY: Inner vs outer catchments * Inner urban catchments (East, North shore, Inner south): light rail & “Tube style” Sydney Trains services: - Focused on reliably servicing short trips (where standing for short periods is ok) - Close station spacing (<1km) to reduce walking distance/time - Surface stations preferred, as time penalty of deep underground stations is worse (%) for short trips - Improved amenity and catalyst for inner urban renewal with higher residential densities * Outer suburban catchments (Liverpool, Hornsby, Marsden Pk): “Crossrail like” Sydney Metro rail services - High capacity stations coupled to park & ride, and feeder bus networks to maximise patronage - Wide station spacing (>2km) to allow faster journey times & hence more competitive against cars - Adequate but not excessive seat capacity - Rapid rail link to be catalyst for further growth of suburban employment job centres (case study: Macquarie Park and Epping-Chatswood rail link) * Dedicated express commuter rail link: linking Western Sydney to Parramatta & Sydney Dual CBDs - Provide 200% additional capacity from St Mary to CBD - 10~12 car long trains - Up to 25 trains per hour frequency, 45,000pax/hr - Parramatta to Central in only two stops - Operates parallel to & in addition to standard semi-express services from Penrith/Richmond

ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY: Short trains vs long trains The use of smaller (6 car) trains at higher frequencies demonstrated by Sydney Metro (TfNSW 2015) - peak: 6 cars x 15tph+ (long term capacity for 30tph) - offpeak: 6 cars x 6 tph - despite shorter 6 cars trains (vs double deck 8 cars), Sydney Metro’s higher 30tph frequency capability provides capacity for 33000pax/hr (vs double deck 24000pax/hr @ 20tph) Comparison with other rail plans: 1. Barry Garnham Rail Plan (2013) peak: 8 car trains off peak: 4 car trains 2. SITS (Chris Stapleton 2009) separates express rail network vs metro network (but train lengths of each not specified) 3. Triple CBD Link proposal (next page) peak: 12 car trains on separate express tracks off peak: 6~8 car trains on city circle tracks

ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY: Peak vs off peak Case Study: Proposed new Western line into City Circle services PEAK HOUR: operate 12 car trains to Central (purple) alongside 6~8 car trains to City Circle (yellow) Richmond

St Mary

Western lines on quad tracks 40~45tph = 60-70,000pax/hr

Penrith Blacktown

OFF PEAK: operate 6~8 car trains to City Circle (yellow only; purple does not operate off peak) Richmond

Northern line 15~20tph

Western lines offpeak on 2 tracks 8 tph = 7,000pax/hr Penrith Blacktown

Parramatta

Parramatta

Harris Granville Homebush Pk Lidcombe Strathfield Burwood Ashfield Sydney Metro: Harris Park to CBD: 30tph (takes over Cumberland tracks fr Liverpool to Harris Pk)

Newtown

CBD

Harris Granville Homebush Pk Lidcombe Strathfield Burwood Ashfield Newtown

Sydney Metro: 30tph Liverpool

Northern line 4~6tph

Bankstown

Peak - Parra-CBD capacity increased to 70~75tph using 3 track pairs: 1. Purple: St Mary to Central (20-25tph,10-12 cars = up to 45,000pax/hr) 2. Yellow: Blue Mts to City Circle (20tph, 6~8 car trains = 18-24000pax/hr). - Higher frequencies possible if no freight & modern signalling 3. Harris Park to Rouse Hill & Hornsby via Liverpool (30tph, 6~8 car trains = 36-45000pax/hr) - Note: Yenorra intermodal freight terminal assumed to be closed/relocated

CBD

Sydney Metro: 8tph Liverpool

Bankstown

Off peak: 1. Western line capacity (and operating costs) scaled down 9-fold, whilst still maintaining acceptable frequency of 8tph during off peak 2. Sydney Metro capacity scaled down 4-fold to 8~10tph offpeak

ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY: Single decks have better service differentiation Capacity red = double deck seated capacity (LHS) total capacity (RHS) green = single deck seated capacity (LHS) & total capacity (RHS) blue = pax loading Distance Outer periphery (seating important)

Inner urban (standing ok for short trip)

CBD

Maximum capacity is needed at CBD bottlenecks only (and only during peak hours) - not needed in periphery of rail system - standing capacity more important than seating capacity at CBD bottlenecks - double decks (RED LINE) have higher (seated) outer periphery capacity (where it is often not needed) but insufficient reliable capacity at CBD (where it is needed) - single decks (GREEN LINE) have lower (seated) outer periphery capacity but higher reliable capacity at CBD, which is a better match for typical pax capacity requirements (BLUE LINE) Exception: trains terminating at Central are not affected by passenger unload times due to large number of platforms

ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY: Demand management strategies

Sydney’s rail system has very peaked commuter weekday travel patterns. Greater Opal off peak pricing incentives may help “flatten out” demand patterns.

GENERAL PRINCIPLE 3: “Greenfield” rail lines need to be justified by new catchments & land value capture (not capacity needs) * Olympic corridor & Bays precinct are major current rail system “blackspots” - Partly solved in medium term by light rail lines - Fast rail link is a longer term augmentation * Concept of Parramatta + Olympic corridor as a “City Circle” * Massive land value capture & renewal potential at Silverwater/Flemington * Creating a “Manhattan-like” corridor for geographic centroid of Sydney

Olympic Park & Parramatta “City Circle” * World Class CBDs have a “circle” of train stations, and not just a single station. * Sydney’s City Circle has 8 train stations between Redfern and Circular Quay. * We propose defining Parramatta-Olympic Park “City Circle” as these 14 existing train stations: Northern line (capacity: 20tph)

Castle Hill Rapid Bus

Carlingford rail line & proposed Olympic Park light rail

Northwest T-way

Olympic Park

Camelia Western & Richmond lines (capacity: 40tph)

Rhodes Concord West

Parramatta Westmead

Burwood Rapid Bus routes to MacPark, Chatswood, Sydney CBD, Bankstown and Hurstville

North Strathfield

Innerwest line & Central express trains (capacity: 60tph)

Strathfield

Homebush Lidcombe Clyde Harris Park Parramatta-Olympic Park “City Circle” QUICK FACTS: Flemington Granville Auburn Southwest T-way Cumberland & Old South line (capacity: 20tph)

Inner West & New South line (capacity: 20tph)

* AREA: 33sq km. Similar to City of Melbourne (CBD, Docklands, South Bank, Fisherman’s Bend) and over four-fold that of Sydney’s highly constrained CBD. * LENGTH: 10km. Slightly longer than the “Global Sydney” North Sydney to Eveleigh corridor (8km). * RADIAL TRAIN CAPACITY: 145-160tph (trains per hour). Comprehensive “hub + 17 spokes” comprising 9 radial track pairs as well as 8 radial BRT routes. Outguns Sydney CBD’s current 7 track pairs/140tph. * JOBS: 120K workers. Comparable to Brisbane’s 120K, within “striking distance” of Sydney CBD’s 300K.

MELBOURNE “CITY LOOP” versus SYDNEY “CITY CIRCLE” * World Class CBDs have a “circle” of train stations, and not just a single station. * Global Sydney (as defined by Dept of Planning) has seven radial track pairs converging on 10 stations between Redfern and North Sydney (8km north-south long axis) * Melbourne’s CBD has eight radial track pairs converging on 7 stations between North Melbourne and Richmond (7km diagonal straight line station distance)

1

2

MELBOURNE CBD: 8 RADIAL TRACK PAIRS, DIAGONAL AXIS = 6km

7

GLOBAL SYDNEY: 7 RADIAL TRACK PAIRS, LONG AXIS = 8km

North Sydney

North Melbourne 3

Long Axis = 8km (North Sydney to Eveleigh ATP)

6

Diagonal Distance = 6km 4 5

Redfern Richmond 8

6 7

1 2 3 4

5

Parramatta: rail hub for all of Greater Sydney

ORIGIN Campbellt’n Liverpool Fairfield Penrith Schofields Bankstown Auburn Strathfield Rhodes Hornsby Chatswood Sutherland Bondi Jn Summer Hill

TIME TO PARRA 52mins 24mins 14mins 22mins 23mins 33mins 8mins 15mins 31mins 37mins 55mins 59mins 44mins 28mins

TIME TO TOWN HALL 54mins 52mins 43mins 51mins 54mins 33mins 27mins 16mins 27mins 40mins 22mins 32mins 10mins 18mins

PARRA BETTER THAN TOWN HALL Due to Parramatta being located in Greater Sydney’s geographic centroid (and at centre of Sydney’s rail network), Parramatta **already** has better travel times for majority of Sydney’s population centres, than for travel to Sydney CBD itself from these centres.

Vibrant & Distinctive Precincts of Parramatta “City Circle” World Class CBDs have a “circle” of train stations, and not just a single station Parramatta’s “City Circle” is bound by 14 train stations between Westmead, Strathfield and Rhodes * Each station is a distinctive & vibrant precinct, as shown on this poster, giving Parramatta “city circle” world-class diversity and character. * Major focus of urban renewal, including precincts of Camelia, Wentworth Point, Carter St, Parramatta road corridor, Olympic Park, Rhodes West & Rhodes East * The 14 station precincts have over 120K jobs, and within “striking distance” of Sydney CBD’s 300K jobs. (Parramatta/Westmead stations have only 60K jobs and lack the scale to have national or global significance on their own. Brisbane CBD has 120K jobs.) * Olympic Park light rail (blue line) completes missing link.

CONTINUOUS WALK-UP RAIL CATCHMENTS: How to make a 10km long x 3km wide corridor walkable Case 1: Single line

Case 2: Two parallel lines (1km apart)

500m walking catchment radius

up 2km wide transverse walking catchment

500m

2km

CBD’s LONG AXIS 5-10km

Case 3: Three parallel lines up 3km wide transverse walking catchment

3km

A 3rd rail line is required to provide a continuous walk-up rail catchment throughout the 3km wide Olympic Corridor

<— 1km —>

<— 1km —> <— 1km —>

CASE STUDY: Midtown & Downtown Manhattan have 3-4 parallel subway lines, with a transverse catchment width of 3.25km

LANDVAL CAPTURE 800ha CONTINUOUS WALKUP RAIL CATCHMENT Parramatta

Church St to Auto Alley renewal precinct

Light Rail: 75ha catchment per station (500m radius) Camelia & Graville Parra Rd renewal precincts

Silverwater station: 200ha catchment

Auburn to Duck Creek renewal corridor = 2km (continuous rail catchment vital for walkability of redevelopmt)

Homebush Parramatta Rd renewal preinct

Pippita station 200ha catchment

Flemington to Olympic Park renewal corridor = 2km