Sydney Metro: Implications of IPART 2015 December Rail Efficiency Study

ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY: Trumps technical efficiency

Source of data: Centre for International Economics 2015 Study into NSW rail system efficiency (commissioned by IPART) In (overly) simplistic terms: * Allocative efficiency is about “customers” - ie: rail catchments, land use, tailored services, getting more people onto trains. * Technical efficiency is about “engineering” - ie: maintenance savings, more efficient hardware systems, staff productivity

OPERATING COST: Metro NW example TOTAL COST per peak hr trip

=

$7.5/car.km x 45km x 6 cars/train x 15 trains x 2 ——————————————————— pax per hr

Note: $7.5/car.km assumes equivalence to Singapore metro’s technical efficiency Total costs include: train operations, train & track maintenance, customer interface, overheads but not infrastructure construction

OPERATING COST: Metro NW example TOTAL COST per peak hr trip = $7.5/car.km x 45km x 6 cars/train x 15 trains x 2 —————————————————— pax per hr 45km route length

ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY: Branching to increase patronage & reduce costs Case Study: Sydney Metro branching from Gordon to Hornsby - see spreadsheet analysis below (Diagram of proposed metro branch/conversion shown in next page)

Metro SW/CBD has high loading (in CBD bound direction) due to Western line’s interchanging pax (boarding at Central)

A branched NW+Hornsby Metro will remain well under crush capacity & will have plenty of room

Even assuming Singaporean levels of technical efficiency, the cost per trip on unbranched Sydney Metro NW (~$7) is higher than for Sydney Trains (average peak+offpeak = $6.13)

A branched NW+Hornsby Metro has potentially superb cost metrics of under $2/trip once North Shore line truncation cost savings are included

ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY: Maximising benefit of $10b harbour tunnel Multiple transport plans/proposals have considered the issue of how to maximise the benefits of having dual harbour rail crossings and have a convergence & commonality on the issue of branching & service differentiation as seen below. The next pages give more detailed operating metrics & patronage data to explain the rationale of branching.

SUBURBAN JOB CENTRES: Hornsby branch of Sydney Metro GORDON New Sydney Metro stub from New Sydney Metro stub Epping-Chatswood tunnel from Epping-Chatswood (underneath Lindfield) tunnel is proposed to connects to upper North Shore to Gordon lineconnect (converted to Metro).

LINDFIELD

Implementation details: add branch stub during 2018 ECRL shut down, or by using ECRL cross over cavern (under Lady Game drive) to bypass one tunnel at a time and allow stub construction work on bypassed tunnel

Sydney Metro branch to Hornsby skips 7 stations south of Gordon (15min faster). Patronage: 64,000 trips/day

LowerShore North line Shore line North (truncated at Gordon), becomes (truncated to inner inner urban line with close urban line, with close station spacing. Patronage: station spacing) 180,000 entries+exits/day

Sydney Metro NW (unbranched) patronage: ~80,000 trips/day

ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY: Patronage balance between Metro NW & SW Chart 1: Sydney Metro will have excellent long term capacity of 45000pax/hr. Capacity will be plentiful on Sydney Metro for both SW & NW but patronage of NW will only be half that of SW. (Due to both higher Bankstown line patronage, and to interchange from terminating Western line onto Metro SW at Central). Chart 2: Future densification & land use changes: will exacerbate patronage imbalance between NW & SW even further.

SUBURBAN JOB CENTRES: Linking Parramatta, Liverpool, Penrith & Hornsby Faster travel & lower operating cost for Hornsby & Upper North Shore (15min time saving & bypassing seven stations). Lowers operating costs.

200% more peak hour capacity on Parramatta to Sydney whilst also reducing off peak operating costs

Fast, high capacity cross harbour Sydney Metro tunnel

Higher CBD interchange capacity Better frequency, 10min travel time saving & lower operating cost for Liverpool

SUBURBAN JOB CENTRES: Prioritisation of potential Metro extensions

SUGGESTED PRIORITISATION: - NEXT 10 years: Sydney Metro second harbour crossing & 50% higher Western line capacity via Central interchange onto SydMetro - NEXT 20 years: Sydney Metro to Hornsby and Liverpool & 200% higher Western line capacity via improved sectorisation of existing tracks - NEXT 30-50 years: Ultrahigh 300% capacity increase on Western Sydney/Parramatta to CBD via signal system modernisation of St Mary to Central station tracks, or via new Parramatta Metro