Sherwood School District Sherwood, Oregon

“DRAFT” 10-Year Student Population Projections By Residence

Fall 2016-2025 (Based on Fall 2015 Data)

April 12, 2016

Prepared by

11850 Pierce Street, Suite 200 Riverside, California 92505 Phone: (951)-270-5211 Fax: (951) 270-5212 www.DavisDemographics.com

Sherwood School District

Methodology for Fall 2015 Projections

10 Year Projections by “Residence” for the Sherwood School District

(Based on Fall 2015/2016 K-12 Student Data)

The Sherwood School District (or the District) has requested Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. (DDP) to assist in preparing a District-wide enrollment forecast based upon student residence. The projected student enrollments generated by DDP cover a ten year period that are based upon the actual Fall 2015 student enrollment figures. The projections conducted by DDP were calculated at the smallest level possible, the Study Area. The Sherwood School District has been divided into 104 individual “study areas.” No study area straddles two District attendance areas. Therefore, the projected number of students in each of the District’s current attendance areas are derived by the simple addition of all of the study areas that comprise that particular region. The District-wide projections is the summary of all 104 study areas. The concept of running projections at the “study area” level is ideal for a school district that plans on re-adjusting its current attendance areas. This then gives the District the ability to determine a variety of new attendance area scenarios and know approximately what the future number of students will be living in the proposed areas. A variety of factors go into the calculation of the “study area” projections. These components include the following: (1) examining the current and planned residential development over the next ten years; (2) calculating student yield factors to apply to this new development; (3) determining birth factors for this District area; and (4) calculating mobility factors, which examine the in/out migration of students within existing housing units (this factor, for example, takes the “resale” of units into account).

SOURCES OF DATA Historical Enrollment:

Obtained verified K-12 student data files downloaded by the District to DDP for each early October from Fall 2012 to Fall 2015.

Housing Information:

Obtained by DDP through information provided by District staff. In addition to data provided by city and county planning departments and developers were contacted when applicable. The use of aerial imagery and county parcel data in a GIS format were also used in this process.

Birth Data:

Live birth counts for the Sherwood area (by zipcode) were obtained from the State of Oregon, Center for Health Statistics Department.

(used for estimating incoming Kindergarten)

Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc.

Page 1

April 12, 2016

Sherwood School District

Methodology for Fall 2015 Projections

METHODOLOGY 1.

Graduate 12th grade: move up other grades.

2.

New residential development information was gathered and researched by DDP by speaking with District staff, contacting city planners, and contacting individual developers when applicable. The use of current and historical aerial imagery and county parcel data in a GIS format were also used in this process. DDP’s research has determined that there are 1,551 new residential units planned over the next ten years. Of these 1,551 units 1,155 are single family homes, 207 are apartments, and 189 are multi-family homes.

3.

Student yield factors are calculated for by geographically linking assessor parcel data with student data. For lack of a large enough sample size, DDP used Student Yield Factors from neighboring West Linn-Wilsonville SD (see below).

4.

Incoming Kindergarten estimates were calculated by gathering live birth counts by the District’s main zipcode (97140) and annual comparisons were made to the Fall 2015 Kindergarten class (born in 2010) as the base year.

5. Modify enrollment further by using student mobility factors as follows: Mobility refers to the in-out migration of students from existing housing. This variable reflects the percentage of students progressing through the grade ranges. The mobility factors help account for the following trends occurring throughout the District: existing housing resales, foreclosures, apartment migration and high school dropout rates. Student counts for each study area are available for the last Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc.

Page 2

April 12, 2016

Sherwood School District

Methodology for Fall 2015 Projections

four school years (Fall 2012 through Fall 2015). The mobility factors were conducted at the current primary school attendance boundary level. There was a total of 24 study areas were chosen from the Archer Glen ES attendance area; 20 study areas from the Edy Ridge ES attendance area; 33 from the Hopkins ES area and 27 study areas from Middleton ES’s area. The mobility factors that show no net increases or decreases (zero change in the number of students) over time is represented by a factor of 1.00 (blue). A net student loss is represented by a factor less than 1.00 (red) and a net gain by a factor greater than 1.00 (green). When the data is available, the typical method that DDP uses to calculate mobility factors is using four consecutive years of mapped student data which results in three years of change and then average it out to even out any anomalies. A comparison was made for the Fall 2012 K student population to the Fall 2013 1st grade students within a specific study area. This comparison was also conducted for the following pairings: Fall 2013 & Fall 2014 and the Fall 2014 & Fall 2015 school-years. In addition, middle school and high school grades were also looked at in this manner (all transitions from Kindergarten through 12th grade).

Student Mobility Factors (used in the Fall 2015 Projections)

“3 Years of Change” (Using Fall 2012 through Fall 2015 students) Sherwood School District Mobility (Using Fall 2012 through Fall 2015 Student Data) (Excluding Study Areas that H ave H ad Development and Ones that Contain Low Student Counts)

Archer Glen ES Edy Ridge ES Hopkins ES Middleton ES

6.

G1 1.190 1.140 1.160 1.090

G2 0.990 1.110 1.050 1.060

G3 1.070 1.070 1.050 1.040

G4 1.020 1.000 1.070 1.010

G5 1.010 1.020 1.040 1.050

G6 1.060 1.110 1.080 1.020

G7 1.040 1.010 1.050 0.990

G8 1.030 1.030 1.030 1.010

G9 1.100 1.080 0.990 1.020

G10 0.960 0.980 1.020 0.980

G11 0.970 0.990 0.990 0.990

G12 0.960 0.990 0.960 0.970

Each of the 104 Study Areas are then projected out over the next ten years (Fall 2016 through Fall 2025). From these study areas, individual Attendance Area reports are generated (see enclosed Attendance Area and Study Area Projections). Please refer to the attached map (11” X 17”) to see the individual study area locations as well as determining the study areas that comprise each Attendance Area.

These projections are based on where the students live and where they should be attending school. DDP uses the actual location of where the students reside, as opposed to their school of enrollment, in order to provide the most accurate depiction of where future schools (if necessary) should be located. The concept of running projections at the “study area” level is ideal for a school district that plans on re-adjusting its current attendance areas. The best way to plan for future schools is to know where the next group of students will be coming from, not necessarily which school they are currently attending.

Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc.

Page 3

April 12, 2016

COURT

MOHAVE

AD RO

86TH AVENUE

FE RR Y S NE BO O

MA N D PAC AN DR IFIC IV HIG E HWA Y

93RD AVENUE

95TH AVENUE

91ST AVENUE

119TH AVENUE

97TH AVENUE

TETON AVENUE

INDUS TRIAL

WAY 109TH TERRACE 107TH AVENUE 108TH AVENUE 106TH AVENUE 106TH AVENUE 105TH AVENUE 104TH AV E NUE

MURDOCK ROAD

82ND AVENUE

HWA Y

HIG

PAC IFIC

Basalt Creek Planning Area 162 APT Units

SALISH LANE

PROPOSED ROAD

New Housing Development streets

RIDDER ROAD

StudyAreas

JACK B UR

PARKWAY AV E NUE

OA D FE RR YR

GR AH AM S

GREENHILL LANE

DAY ROAD

GARDEN ACRES ROAD

MORGAN LANE

STONEHAVEN STREET

BAKER ROAD

BAKER ROAD

PLEASANT HILL ROAD

115TH AVENUE

PO PR O

OBERST ROAD

120TH AVENUE

SE D

RO

AD

RD

82A

E IV

LADD HILL ROAD

BA KE R

82B

95TH AVENUE

ROAD

84

CAHALIN ROAD

DR

REIN

MORGAN ROAD

D

0.8 Miles

Basalt Creek Planning Area 324 SFD Units

AN

0.4

R

AD

83

TONQUIN ROAD

L AT HE

0

C

L

Basalt Creek Planning Area 162 MFA Units

82C

W

April 12, 2016

85B

86C

M

O

IV E

LN

86A

C

EL

DR

A SC

Map Prepared by

SQUIRREL LANE

N

N

EY

E AL

87

OBERST LANE

O

WALDO W AY

ELWERT ROAD HIGHWAY

OLD PACIFIC

HW AY HIG IFIC PAC

PINE STREET

EASTVIEW ROAD

Brookman Road Concept Plan 362 SFD Units

VE DR I

BROOKMAN ROAD

BLAKE STREET

OTA

86D

81

80

ALSEA DRIVE

OA D

DAK

79

E

68

HIGHPOINT DRIVE

KI NL

RD

67

MC

IN

58

HO R

TONQUIN LOOP

QU

53

77

N TO

46B

66

ARAP A

PAULINA DRIVE

BROWN STREET

SMOCK S TREET

78

SIUSLAW LANE

REET UMATILLA ST

ONEIDA STREET

76

70

69

LN

48

Brookman Road Concept Plan 726 SFD Units 54

49

KE

46C

65

63

SUNSET BLVD

50

71

DIVISION STREET

59

HL DA

46A

IVE 57 FITCH DR 55

74

FOREST AVENUE

75

DRIVE

TAYLORS DRIVE

D

47

51

64

STREET

O OCHOC

IBACH STREET

OA

¯

44

WILLAMETTE

39 VILLA ROAD STELLAR DRIVE

73

72

Timber Crossing 18 SFD Units 38

56

43

31

R IN

IVE

28 SFD Units

KRUGER ROAD

45

40

34

30

SILETZ DRIVE

QU

41

35

24B

24A

N TO

9 33A

42

Sherwood Plaza Apartments 82 APT Units

32

12TH STREET 27

Cedar Brook PUD 50 MFA Units

DEWEY DR

6

5

10

AVERY STREET

TUALATIN-SHERWOOD ROAD

25A

NU VE HA

GILLETTE LA NE

20

25B

UE AVEN

11A

Cedar Brook PUD 15 SFD Units

Sherwood West SFD Units

4

11B

26

BR

DR

Active and Future Residential Development

H 112T

8

13 12

21

L GA

TH EA

AD

MANHASSET DRIVE

23B

E IV

RO

Sherwood School District

HER

N MA

MYSLONY STREET

E

Mandel Farms Subdivision 86 SFD Units

EDY ROAD

E NU

Roshun Village Townhomes 14 MFA Units

H AV

23A

15

129T

22

OA D

CONZELMANN ROAD

LE R

3

CIPO

SCHROEDER LANE

AY HW

90T

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124TH AVENUE

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Sherwood School District

Total SFD = 1155 Total MFA = 189

Total APT = 207

Total OTHER = 0

Study Area

10/2020 - 10/2021

10/2021 - 10/2022

10/2022 - 10/2023

10/2023 - 10/2024

10/2024 - 10/2025

SFD

MFA

APT

SFD

MFA

APT

SFD

MFA

APT

SFD

MFA

APT

SFD

MFA

APT

SFD

MFA

APT

SFD

MFA

APT

SFD

MFA

APT

SFD

MFA

APT

SFD

MFA

APT

Total

Study Area

Elementary School

Middle School

High School

8

9

0

0

38

0

0

39

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

86

8

Edy Ridge ES

Laurel Ridge MS

Sherwood HS Sherwood HS

10/2015 - 10/2016

10/2016 - 10/2017

10/2017 - 10/2018

10/2018 - 10/2019

10/2019 - 10/2020

9

5

20

0

10

30

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

65

9

Edy Ridge ES

Laurel Ridge MS

20

0

14

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

14

20

Edy Ridge ES

Laurel Ridge MS

Sherwood HS

26

0

0

0

0

0

60

0

0

22

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

82

26

Hopkins ES

Sherwood MS

Sherwood HS

37

0

0

0

0

0

0

9

0

0

9

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

18

37

Hopkins ES

Sherwood MS

Sherwood HS

42

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

14

0

0

14

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

28

42

Middleton ES

Sherwood MS

Sherwood HS

46C

0

0

0

0

0

0

25

0

0

35

0

0

35

0

0

35

0

0

35

0

0

35

0

0

28

0

0

0

0

0

228

46C

Middleton ES

Laurel Ridge MS

Sherwood HS

82B

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

30

25

25

75

25

25

75

25

25

75

25

25

69

25

25

574

82B

Hopkins ES

Sherwood MS

Sherwood HS

86D

0

0

0

0

0

0

50

0

0

75

0

0

75

0

0

75

0

0

75

0

0

75

0

0

31

0

0

0

0

0

456

86D

Archer Glen ES

Sherwood MS

Sherwood HS

Total

14

34

0

48

30

60

123

0

22

133

0

0

124

0

0

140

25

25

185

25

25

185

25

25

134

25

25

69

25

25

Total

Total 15 / 16

48

Contact/Owner Developer City of Sherwood City of Tualitan City of Tualitan City of Tualitan City of Sherwood City of Sherwood DR Horton DR Horton Venture Properties Roshun Village Mercury Development City of Sherwood City of Sherwood =

Created by DDP

Total 16 / 17

138

Total 17 / 18

145

Project/Area Unknown Basalt Creek Planning Area Basalt Creek Planning Area Basalt Creek Planning Area Brookman Road Concept Plan Brookman Road Concept Plan Cedar Brook PUD Cedar Brook PUD Mandel Farms Subdivision Roshun Village Townhomes Sherwood Plaza Apartments Sherwood West Timber Crossing

Total 18 / 19

Study Area 42 82B 82B 82B 86D 46C 9 9 8 20 26 4 37

133

Total Units 28 162 324 162 726 362 15 50 86 14 82 4400 18

Total 19 / 20

Type of Units SFD APT SFD MFA SFD SFD SFD MFA SFD MFA APT SFD SFD

124

Left to Build All All All All All All All All All All All All All

Total 20 / 21

190

Total 21 / 22

235

Total 22 / 23

235

Total 23 / 24

184

Total 24/ 25

119

Comments Talking about starting up again Talk to Cities of Tualatin & Wilsonville (162 APT) Talk to Cities of Tualatin & Wilsonville (324 SFD) Talk to Cities of Tualatin & Wilsonville (162 MFA) Outside of City - Could be Annexed soon? Outside of City - Could be Annexed soon? 50 townhomes & 15 SFD, Currently in progress 50 townhomes & 15 SFD, Currently in progress 1st 9 units by Fall 2016, Currently in progress 14 Townhomes, Currently in progress 82 Apts const in Jan 2017 Four distinct regions/A ways off 7+ yrs, still in planning 17-20 possible lots

Projects in progress

Draft Resdiential Development

4/12/2016

Sherwood School District

SY 2015/16 Projection

"DRAFT" District-Wide 10-Year Forecast Projection Date 10/7/2015

Sub Total of Resident Students:

K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12

Special Education Students:

K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12

Out-of-District Students:

K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12

Unmatched Students:

K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12

Actual Fall 2013 303 338 371 331 346 379 393 401 386 381 350 362 314 Fall 2013 2,068 1,180 1,407 4,655 Fall 2013 8 13 13 34 Fall 2013 58 36 91 185 Fall 2013 2 0 2 4

K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12

Fall 2013 2,136 1,229 1,513 4,878

K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Totals:

% Change:

K-5 Annual Change: 6-8 Annual Change: 9-12 Annual Change: K-12 Annual Change:

Actual Fall 2014 302 345 355 380 347 356 406 400 408 397 382 343 348 Fall 2014 2,085 1,214 1,470 4,769 Fall 2014 6 10 16 32 Fall 2014 40 28 82 150 Fall 2014 0 0 2 2

"Current" Fall 2015 337 344 371 386 391 367 380 411 408 428 399 375 335 Fall 2015 2,196 1,199 1,537 4,932 Fall 2015 4 5 18 27 Fall 2015 24 19 65 108 Fall 2015 0 0 0 0

Fall 2016 311.2 387.4 364.2 393.4 396.7 404.1 391.9 389.2 422.2 427.6 422.8 394.0 364.6 Fall 2016 2,257.0 1,203.3 1,609.0 5,069.3 Fall 2016 4.0 5.0 18.0 27.0 Fall 2016 24.0 19.0 65.0 108.0 Fall 2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Fall 2017 342.4 360.7 410.2 389.2 406.2 413.1 435.0 403.5 402.6 444.1 423.9 419.6 385.0 Fall 2017 2,321.8 1,241.1 1,672.6 5,235.5 Fall 2017 4.0 5.0 18.0 27.0 Fall 2017 24.0 19.0 65.0 108.0 Fall 2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Fall 2018 331.0 399.3 384.9 440.2 405.3 424.9 447.2 451.1 419.6 424.9 441.7 422.2 411.4 Fall 2018 2,385.6 1,317.9 1,700.2 5,403.7 Fall 2018 4.0 5.0 18.0 27.0 Fall 2018 24.0 19.0 65.0 108.0 Fall 2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Projected Resident Student Counts Fall 2019 Fall 2020 Fall 2021 Fall 2022 311.5 335.1 333.7 337.2 386.4 363.6 392.5 393.5 425.2 411.0 388.5 420.9 413.6 455.7 442.3 420.8 458.2 430.4 475.3 463.9 423.8 478.0 451.0 499.4 459.4 459.9 517.5 490.9 463.0 475.0 478.2 540.0 469.0 480.5 494.3 500.4 442.8 495.7 507.5 525.4 423.3 440.3 493.3 507.2 439.4 421.3 439.4 492.6 414.1 429.8 414.2 433.1 Fall 2019 Fall 2020 Fall 2021 Fall 2022 2,418.7 2,473.8 2,483.3 2,535.7 1,391.4 1,415.4 1,490.0 1,531.3 1,719.6 1,787.1 1,854.4 1,958.3 5,529.7 5,676.3 5,827.7 6,025.3 Fall 2019 Fall 2020 Fall 2021 Fall 2022 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 Fall 2019 Fall 2020 Fall 2021 Fall 2022 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 108.0 108.0 108.0 108.0 Fall 2019 Fall 2020 Fall 2021 Fall 2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Fall 2023 346.0 397.5 421.8 455.0 442.0 487.7 542.5 512.9 563.6 531.0 523.7 506.8 484.5 Fall 2023 2,550.0 1,619.0 2,046.0 6,215.0 Fall 2023 4.0 5.0 18.0 27.0 Fall 2023 24.0 19.0 65.0 108.0 Fall 2023 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Fall 2024 347.1 404.9 423.5 453.4 474.8 462.7 527.3 563.3 533.3 594.7 528.8 520.9 496.8 Fall 2024 2,566.4 1,623.9 2,141.2 6,331.5 Fall 2024 4.0 5.0 18.0 27.0 Fall 2024 24.0 19.0 65.0 108.0 Fall 2024 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Fall 2025 347.9 402.6 428.1 451.9 470.2 493.3 497.4 544.7 581.9 560.5 589.2 524.0 508.2 Fall 2025 2,594.0 1,624.0 2,181.9 6,399.9 Fall 2025 4.0 5.0 18.0 27.0 Fall 2025 24.0 19.0 65.0 108.0 Fall 2025 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Fall 2014 2,131 1,252 1,570 4,953

Fall 2015 2,224 1,223 1,620 5,067

Fall 2016 2285.0 1227.3 1692.0 5204.3

Fall 2017 2349.8 1265.1 1755.6 5370.5

Fall 2018 2413.6 1341.9 1783.2 5538.7

Fall 2019 2446.7 1415.4 1802.6 5664.7

Fall 2020 2501.8 1439.4 1870.1 5811.3

Fall 2021 2511.3 1514.0 1937.4 5962.7

Fall 2022 2563.7 1555.3 2041.3 6160.3

Fall 2023 2578.0 1643.0 2129.0 6350.0

Fall 2024 2594.4 1647.9 2224.2 6466.5

Fall 2025 2622.0 1648.0 2264.9 6534.9

From '13 to '14

From '14 to '15

From '15 to '16

From '16 to '17

From '17 to '18

From '18 to '19

From '19 to '20

From '20 to '21

From '21 to '22

From '22 to '23

From '23 to '24

From '24 to '25

-0.2% 1.8% 3.6% 1.5%

4.2% -2.4% 3.1% 2.2%

2.7% 0.4% 4.3% 2.6%

2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 3.1%

2.6% 5.7% 1.5% 3.0%

1.4% 5.2% 1.1% 2.2%

2.2% 1.7% 3.6% 2.5%

0.4% 4.9% 3.5% 2.5%

2.0% 2.7% 5.1% 3.2%

0.6% 5.3% 4.1% 3.0%

0.6% 0.3% 4.3% 1.8%

Change from 20152025

# 398.0 425.0 644.9 1,467.9

% 17.9% 34.8% 39.8% 29.0%

1.1% 0.0% 1.8% 1.0%

The above projections are based upon a student data file provided to DDP by the Sherwood School District representing early October 2015. . 13 students with a grade = 13 and 28 PreK students were given to DDP in the original student data file and were excluded from the above projections.

April 12, 2016

Prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc.

Sherwood School District

Fall 2015/2016 Projection Report

Fall 2015/2016 K-5 (Elementary School) Attendance Matrix "Open Enrollment" Patterns

K-5 Students

Archer Glen ES

Edy Ridge ES

Hopkins ES

Middleton ES

SCHOOL OF RESIDENCE (BASED ON CURRENT ATTENDANCE AREAS)

SCHOOL OF ATTENDANCE

Transfer Out Rates

Archer Glen ES

507

486

6

10

5

4.1%

Edy Ridge ES

534

4

517

9

4

3.2%

Hopkins ES

549

17

5

510

17

7.1%

Middleton ES

606

11

6

3

586

3.3%

K-5 Sub-Totals:

2,196

518

534

532

612

PK

K-5 Totals:

28 4 24 2,252

0 0 7 525

0 0 5 539

28 0 7 567

0 4 5 621

# Enrolled, But Not Living in Attendance Area: Open Enrollment % ("Transfer In" %):

121

39

22

29

31

5.5%

7.5%

4.1%

5.5%

5.1%

Attendance Area

Special Education: Out of District:

District-wide

Prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc.

N UE

INVERURIE RD

AVE 72ND AVENUE

72ND

90TH AVE

86TH AVENUE

55TH AVENUE RO

AD

FROBASE ROAD

GA G

82A

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HOMESTEADER ROAD

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IV

STAFFORD ROAD

RIDDER ROAD

SO

DR

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82ND AVENUE

NORWOOD ROAD

65TH AVENUE

HIG PAC IFIC

70TH AVE

HWA Y

TETON AVENUE

108TH AVENUE 106TH AVENUE

105TH AVENUE

PROPOSED ROAD

92ND AV E NUE

E TRAIL SHAWNE

118TH AVENUE

UE

115TH AVENUE

ET ST RE

AM

145TH AVENUE

147TH AVENUE

MCCONNELL ROAD

IOWA DRIVE

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ROBBINS ROAD

ELLIGSEN ROAD

VI

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OBERST LANE

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HEATER RD

BAKER ROAD

IF PACIF IC IC HIG HI HW GH AY W AY

PA C

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124TH AVEN

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SEELY LANE

ELWERT ROAD

EASTVIEW ROAD

RAMBLIN RECK ROAD

AEBISCHER

ROAD

207TH AVENUE

IVE

GARLAND ROAD

DR

MOUNTAIN HOME ROAD

NT

RD

RO

TS ER

EAST PO

A DRIV

ALSE

CLAY STREET

LL

1.5 Miles

MA

IN

0.75

SILETZ DRIVE

GREENHILL LANE

BE

April 12, 2016

0

CA

QU RD

AD

BELL ROAD

D OA

AVERY STREET

84

TOOZE ROAD

BORLAND ROAD

SAGERT STREET

HE

AT L

86B

SMITH RD

JOSHUA STREET

E

85A

Map Prepared by

W R

TM

NYBERG LANE

DAY ROAD CAHALIN ROAD

MORGAN ROAD

KE

N

AD

HEATER RO

I TA

RO

82B 83

ELLMAN LANE

Elementary School AN Attendance Boundaries W KENNY STREET CE M and MCEWAN ROAD Study Areas DAW N ST JEAN ROAD

RD

CHILDS ROAD

TONQUIN ROAD

BA

85B

D

N OU

T RE

86C

N TO

86A

75

BAKER ROAD

5

Sherwood School District

IBACH STREET

73

72

BOND STREET

75TH AVENUE N UE 78TH AVE

30

24B

N

E

D

5

HELLS CANYON ROAD

R PA

41

5

Hopkins ES

STREET 37 34 36 WILLAMETTE 42 40 VILLA ROAD 31 74 64 71 43 56 39 76 38 59 63 Archer Glen ES Middleton ES SUNSET BLVD 65 69 77 47 51 54 68 62 58 HIGHPOINT DRIVE 81 49 53 46C 61 67 79 80 BROOKMAN ROAD 86D

SSE ROA

BELL ROAD

K E RO A

LABROU

195TH PLACE

87

MEINEC

29 25A

MC

6

32

MA

E NU H AV

9

7

5

RINGER STREET

10

24A

KE LN

5

26 27

HER

DAHL

Edy Ridge ES

8

HAIDE ROAD

20

23B

D

A RO

112T

14 EDY ROAD

18A 18C 19 21

OA D

15

23A

VD BL

AD

16

LEVETON DRIVE

LE R

CONZELMANN ROAD

45 CHAPMAN ROAD

¯

PA

22

OD

U

R GE

RO

108TH AVENUE

113TH AVENUE

HAZELBROOK ROAD

RI V

CIPO

CAPPOEN RD

LEBEAU ROAD

D IC CIF

ASHFORD STREET

E

DURHAM ROAD

TUALATIN ROAD

WO ER

KR

4

IELD DRIV

PARKWAY AVE

150TH AVENUE

APRIL LANE

FISCHER ROAD TIMARA LANE

SH

SCHMELTZER ROAD

MACBETH DRIVE

E

3

2

D

ND ROAD

BROWN ROAD

SCHOLLS-SHERWOOD ROA

BEEF BE

110TH AVENUE

1

ROY ROGERS ROAD

192ND AVENUE

PASCUZZI LANE

BELTON ROAD

SWANK ROAD SEIFFERT ROAD

LASICH LANE

SUMMERF

5

Schools

Edy Ridge ES

streets

Hopkins ES

StudyAreas

Middleton ES EILER

S RO

AD

Sherwood School District

Methodology for Fall 2015 Projections

Elementary School Attendance Area 10-Year Projections Attendance Area Archer Glen ES ACTUAL 2015 2016 2017 K 89.0 81.9 89.3 1 79.0 105.9 97.4 2 90.0 78.2 104.9 3 77.0 96.3 83.7 4 99.0 78.5 98.2 5 73.0 100.0 79.3 K-5

507.0

540.8

552.8

Projection PROJECTED 2018 87.5 109.0 98.8 114.7 87.8 101.6 599.4

Date 10/7/2015 RESIDENT STUDENTS 2019 2020 83.9 91.2 108.3 104.0 111.5 110.7 109.5 123.1 120.7 115.4 92.2 125.4

2021 91.5 112.8 106.5 122.3 129.2 120.1

2022 92.7 113.1 115.2 117.8 128.4 134.1

2023 95.6 114.6 115.5 127.0 123.8 133.3

2024 95.0 115.5 114.9 125.2 131.1 126.5

2025 94.3 113.1 114.4 122.9 127.7 132.4

626.1

682.4

701.3

709.8

708.2

704.8

669.8

Attendance Area Edy Ridge ACTUAL 2015 2016 K 69.0 64.7 1 94.0 80.0 2 91.0 105.7 3 100.0 98.7 4 93.0 101.2 5 87.0 96.1

ES

Projection Date 10/7/2015 PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 72.6 69.9 64.4 68.6 67.4 76.9 84.9 79.7 73.4 78.2 91.9 87.4 94.2 88.5 81.5 116.0 100.3 93.5 100.8 94.7 101.4 117.9 100.3 93.5 100.8 106.0 105.3 120.2 102.3 95.4

2022 66.8 76.8 86.8 87.2 94.7 102.8

2023 67.6 76.2 85.2 92.9 87.2 96.6

2024 67.2 77.0 84.6 91.2 92.9 88.9

2025 67.2 76.6 85.5 90.5 91.2 94.8

K-5

564.8

518.0

515.1

505.7

501.8

505.8

Attendance Area Hopkins ES Projection Date 10/7/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 90.0 82.8 91.2 87.3 81.3 86.6 1 92.0 104.4 97.2 106.7 101.8 94.3 2 81.0 96.6 110.6 102.8 112.5 106.9 3 97.0 85.0 102.4 117.0 108.4 118.1 4 98.0 103.8 92.0 110.4 125.6 116.0 5 91.0 101.9 108.9 96.5 115.3 130.6

2021 87.2 103.0 101.3 114.6 128.8 123.0

2022 89.8 106.2 112.7 111.0 127.3 138.5

2023 93.1 109.2 116.1 122.9 123.4 136.9

2024 95.0 113.1 119.2 126.4 136.2 132.9

2025 97.1 115.0 123.0 129.5 139.7 145.9

K-5

657.9

685.5

701.6

722.8

750.2

Attendance Area Middleton ES Projection Date 10/7/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 K 89.0 81.9 89.3 86.3 82.0 88.7 87.7 1 79.0 97.0 89.2 98.6 96.6 91.9 98.5 2 109.0 83.7 102.8 95.9 107.0 104.8 99.2 3 112.0 113.4 87.1 108.2 102.1 113.7 110.7 4 101.0 113.1 114.5 89.2 111.6 105.5 116.5 5 116.0 106.1 118.8 121.5 96.1 119.6 112.5

2022 87.8 97.4 106.1 104.9 113.5 124.0

2023 89.7 97.6 105.0 112.1 107.6 120.9

2024 89.8 99.2 104.8 110.5 114.6 114.4

2025 89.2 97.9 105.2 109.0 111.6 120.3

K-5

633.7

632.9

633.3

633.2

534.0

549.0

606.0

546.4

574.5

595.2

602.3

601.7

565.7

620.7

599.7

552.3

644.9

595.4

527.1

652.5

624.2

625.1

Above projections EXCLUDE Out-of-District, special education, and PreK students. Please see the Elementary School K-5 Attendance Matrix for a detailed breakdown of these student groups.

Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc.

Page 1

April 12, 2016

Sherwood School District

Fall 2015/2016 Projection Report

Fall 2015/2016 6-8 (Middle School) Attendance Matrix "Open Enrollment" Patterns

SCHOOL OF RESIDENCE (BASED ON CURRENT ATTENDANCE AREAS)

SCHOOL OF ATTENDANCE

Attendance Area

Laurel Ridge MS

Sherwood MS 6-8 Sub-Totals: Special Education: Out of District: 6-8 Totals: # Enrolled, But Not Living in Attendance Area: Open Enrollment % ("Transfer In" %):

6-8 Students

Laurel Ridge MS

Sherwood MS

Transfer Out Rates

481

464

17

3.5%

718 1,199

19 483

699 716

2.6%

5 19 1,223

1 5 489

4 14 734

55

24

31

4.6%

5.0%

4.3%

District-wide

Prepared by Davis Demographics and Planning, Inc.

Page XX

INVERURIE RD

AVE 72ND AVENUE

72ND

PROPOSED ROAD

N UE

AD RO E GA G

82A

95TH AVENUE E FIR A V

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ES

FE

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60TH AVENUE

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BOBERG ROAD

KINSMAN ROAD PROPOSED ROAD

BO

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BROWN ROAD

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BOECKMAN ROAD

MAIN STREET

RO

GU

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HOMESTEADER ROAD

ADVANCE ROAD

Laurel Ridge MS BRUCK LANE

IV

STAFFORD ROAD

RIDDER ROAD

O AD ER R YR SF AM GR AH S WIL

ST

E

Sherwood MS

SO

DR

LL B

EA

ROSE LANE WIL

D

REEWAY

55TH AVENUE

82ND AVENUE

65TH AVENUE

HWA Y HIG PAC IFIC

70TH AVE

108TH AVENUE

92ND AV E NUE

E TRAIL SHAWNE

90TH AVE

FROBASE ROAD

CANYON CREEK RO AD

AN

RTLAND F

ROBBINS ROAD

NORWOOD ROAD

82C

84

BAKER ROAD

145TH AVENUE

86TH AVENUE

115TH AVENUE

105TH AVENUE

UE

118TH AVENUE

TETON AVENUE

IOWA DRIVE

PACIFIC HIGHWAY

BAKER ROAD

E

A DRIV

ALSE

108TH AVENUE 106TH AVENUE

LANE

147TH AVENUE

MCCONNELL ROAD

AT L

EB

HEATER RD

124TH AVEN

GERDA LANE

CE OLDS PL A

BALER WAY

D

170TH AVENUE

OBERST LANE

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BRITTANY

PINE STREET

PINEHURST DRIVE

W AY

HI GH C IF I

PA C

OL D

SEELY LANE

ELWERT ROAD

EASTVIEW ROAD

RAMBLIN RECK ROAD

207TH AVENUE

GARLAND ROAD

EAST PO

ELLIGSEN ROAD

VI

CAPPOEN RD

ROAD AEBISCHER

MOUNTAIN HOME ROAD

SILETZ DRIVE

HE

RD

R

AVERY STREET

75TH AVENUE N UE 78TH AVE

W

TOOZE ROAD

BORLAND ROAD

SAGERT STREET

CLAY STREET

LL

RO

TS ER

NYBERG LANE

GREENHILL LANE

BE

April 12, 2016

1.5 Miles

D OA

CHILDS ROAD

DAY ROAD CAHALIN ROAD

MORGAN ROAD

86B

SMITH RD

0.75

82B 83

BELL ROAD

0

IVE

AD

Map Prepared by

IV E

ELLMAN LANE

Middle School AN Attendance Boundaries W KENNY STREET CE M and MCEWAN ROAD Study Areas DAW N ST JEAN ROAD

RD

JOSHUA STREET

E

85A

Sherwood School District

TONQUIN ROAD

RD

TM

AD

81

DR

R

85B

EY

KE

N

79

BA

I TA

RO

HEATER RO

R PA

86C

D

¯

HELLS CANYON ROAD

T RE

68

77 KI NL

DR

86A

N OU

67

BROOKMAN ROAD 86D

SSE ROA

BELL ROAD

62

58 61

LABROU

87

54

MC

RD

47 49 53 46C

69

IN

RINGER STREET

46A

63 65

SUNSET BLVD

74 75

71

QU

195TH PLACE

45 CHAPMAN ROAD

59

64

38

NT

51

VILLA ROAD

N TO

56

44

5WILLAMETTE STREET

36

MA

42

37

CA

AV

IV

BOND STREET

IBACH STREET

D

W

DH OO

DR

Sherwood MS

OA

EN

31

MC

E

5

OA D

N

E

E CK E R

6

24B 30 24A

MA

E NU H AV

7

23B

KE LN

5

43

21

Laurel Ridge MS 26 27 12 20 32 10 29 9 34 MEIN

8

HAIDE ROAD

19 18B

HER

A RO

112T

14

18A

OA D

AD

15

23A

D

DAHL

RO

16

LE R

CONZELMANN ROAD

LEVETON DRIVE

CIPO

22

RI V

R IN

UG

ER

113TH AVENUE

HIGHW AY

HAZELBROOK ROAD

QU

KR

4

PA

D IC CIF

ASHFORD STREET

E

DURHAM ROAD

TUALATIN ROAD

LEBEAU ROAD

EDY ROAD

IELD DRIV

PARKWAY AVE

150TH AVENUE

APRIL LANE

FISCHER ROAD TIMARA LANE

N TO

SCHMELTZER ROAD

MACBETH DRIVE

E

3

2

D

ND ROAD

110TH AVENUE

SCHOLLS-SHERWOOD ROA

BEEF BE

PACIF IC

1

ROY ROGERS ROAD

192ND AVENUE

PASCUZZI LANE

BELTON ROAD

SWANK ROAD SEIFFERT ROAD

LASICH LANE

SUMMERF

EILER

S RO

AD

5

Schools streets StudyAreas

Sherwood School District

Methodology for Fall 2015 Projections

Middle School Attendance Area 10-Year Projections Attendance Area Laurel Ridge MS ACTUAL 2015 2016 2017 K 121.0 112.5 124.8 1 140.0 136.7 129.0 2 149.0 154.4 152.0 3 169.0 159.0 166.7 4 158.0 170.9 162.3 5 156.0 164.3 179.2 6 159.0 168.3 179.3 7 154.0 160.6 171.4 8 168.0 158.4 167.0

Projection Date 10/7/2015 PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2018 2019 2020 120.8 112.9 121.2 143.0 137.0 128.1 143.9 157.6 151.0 164.0 154.0 168.5 170.3 166.3 156.3 170.5 177.0 173.4 195.6 185.1 193.1 182.8 197.7 187.3 178.2 188.5 203.8

2021 119.9 137.3 141.2 161.4 170.8 163.1 187.8 195.5 193.2

2022 119.8 135.8 151.2 151.0 163.8 178.1 176.6 189.8 201.8

2023 122.0 135.7 149.6 161.6 153.3 170.9 192.6 178.6 195.7

2024 122.0 137.8 149.1 159.5 163.6 159.8 184.3 194.3 183.9

2025 121.4 136.3 149.9 157.6 160.2 169.0 171.0 184.6 198.5

576.5

568.2

566.9

562.5

554.1

Attendance Area Sherwood MS Projection Date 10/7/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 216.0 198.7 217.6 210.2 198.7 213.9 1 204.0 250.6 231.7 256.2 249.4 235.6 2 222.0 209.8 258.2 241.0 267.6 260.0 3 217.0 234.4 222.5 276.2 259.6 287.2 4 233.0 225.8 243.8 235.0 291.8 274.1 5 211.0 239.7 233.9 254.4 246.8 304.6 6 221.0 223.6 255.7 251.6 274.2 266.8 7 257.0 228.7 232.1 268.4 265.3 287.7 8 240.0 263.7 235.6 241.4 280.4 276.7

2021 213.9 255.2 247.3 280.9 304.4 287.9 329.8 282.7 301.1

2022 217.4 257.7 269.6 269.8 300.1 321.3 314.3 350.2 298.6

2023 224.0 261.8 272.2 293.4 288.7 316.8 349.9 334.2 367.9

2024 225.1 267.1 274.4 293.9 311.1 302.9 343.0 369.1 349.4

2025 226.5 266.3 278.1 294.3 310.0 324.3 326.4 360.1 383.4

6-8

913.6

963.1

1052.0

1061.5

1069.9

6-8

481.0

718.0

487.3

716.0

517.7

723.4

556.6

761.4

571.3

819.9

584.2

831.2

Above projections EXCLUDE Out-of-District, special education. Please see the Middle School 6-8 Attendance Matrix for a detailed breakdown of these student groups.

Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc.

Page 2

April 12, 2016

Sherwood School District

Methodology for Fall 2015 Projections

High School Attendance Area 10-Year Projections Attendance Area Sherwood HS Projection Date 10/7/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 K 337.0 311.2 342.4 331.0 311.5 335.1 1 344.0 387.4 360.7 399.3 386.4 363.6 2 371.0 364.2 410.2 384.9 425.2 411.0 3 386.0 393.4 389.2 440.2 413.6 455.7 4 391.0 396.7 406.2 405.3 458.2 430.4 5 367.0 404.1 413.1 424.9 423.8 478.0 6 380.0 391.9 435.0 447.2 459.4 459.9 7 411.0 389.2 403.5 451.1 463.0 475.0 8 408.0 422.2 402.6 419.6 469.0 480.5 9 428.0 427.6 444.1 424.9 442.8 495.7 10 399.0 422.8 423.9 441.7 423.3 440.3 11 375.0 394.0 419.6 422.2 439.4 421.3 12 335.0 364.6 385.0 411.4 414.1 429.8 9-12

1537.0

1609.0

1672.6

1700.2

1719.6

1787.1

2021 333.7 392.5 388.5 442.3 475.3 451.0 517.5 478.2 494.3 507.5 493.3 439.4 414.2

2022 337.2 393.5 420.9 420.8 463.9 499.4 490.9 540.0 500.4 525.4 507.2 492.6 433.1

2023 346.0 397.5 421.8 455.0 442.0 487.7 542.5 512.9 563.6 531.0 523.7 506.8 484.5

2024 347.1 404.9 423.5 453.4 474.8 462.7 527.3 563.3 533.3 594.7 528.8 520.9 496.8

2025 347.9 402.6 428.1 451.9 470.2 493.3 497.4 544.7 581.9 560.5 589.2 524.0 508.2

1854.4

1958.3

2046.0

2141.2

2181.9

Above projections EXCLUDE Out-of-District and special education.

Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc.

Page 3

April 12, 2016