COMPANY RESEARCH | Rating Change
March 18, 2015
Genting Singapore
(GENS SP)
Share Price: SGD0.91
MCap (USD): 8.0B
Singapore
Target Price: SGD1.08 (+19%)
ADTV (USD): 14M
Gaming
BUY
(Upgrade)
Positive mass-market focus
Key Data
3m avg turnover (USDm)
14.4
Upgrade GENS to BUY from HOLD with catalysts from success in mass-market initiatives. Maintain below-consensus EPS.
Free float (%)
48.1
Unchanged SGD1.08 SOTP TP, implying 9x FY15E EV/EBITDA. Trading at trough valuations & cheap against regional peers.
Market capitalization
52w high/low (SGD)
Mass-market & foreign expansion critical for growth.
Short-term stability, longer-term growth from RWJ We organised a group luncheon for about a dozen investors from Singapore to meet management. We gathered that: i) less credit extension will generate less VIP volume; ii) MYR and IDR weakness poses risks to mass-market GGR; iii) Genting Hotel Jurong (GHJ) and a new management will mitigate those risks; iv) its expansion into Japan is uncertain but dividends may rise as a result; and v) Resorts World Jeju (RWJ) may just be feasible.
Unjustifiably cheap We leave our below-consensus EPS alone. Since GENS reported its worst-ever results on 24 Feb 2015, its share price has slid 12%. It now trades at multi-year lows of 7x forward EV/EBITDA and 1.4x 12M forward P/BV. In fact, its stock is at a discount to Genting Malaysia (GENM MK, BUY, TP MYR4.60) and even American-centric casino operators. Downside should be limited, in our view. Its FY14 weakness was due to a low VIP win rate and record-high doubtful debts. The first should normalise over time while the second can be managed, in our view. Investors should also not discount GHJ and its new COO who could help RWS expand its noncredit-dependent, higher-margin mass market. Maintain SOTP TP of SGD1.08, implying 9x FY15E EV/EBITDA. Upgrade from HOLD to BUY with catalysts expected from success in its mass-market initiatives.
1.36/0.91
Issued shares (m)
12,239 SGD11.1B
Major shareholders: -Genting Bhd.
51.9%
-TIAA-CREF Investment Management LLC
0.9%
-BlackRock Fund Advisors
0.7%
Share Price Performance 1.70
140
1.60
130
1.50
120
1.40
110
1.30
100
1.20
90
1.10
80
1.00
70
0.90 Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
60
Genting Singapore - (LHS, SGD) Genting Singapore / Straits Times Index - (RHS, %)
1 Mth 3 Mth 12 Mth Absolute(%)
(11.7) (12.5) (31.1)
Relative to index (%)
(10.6) (16.4) (36.9)
Maybank vs Market Positive Market Recs
9
Neutral Negative 8
2
Maybank Consensus
% +/-
Target Price (SGD)
1.08
1.12
(3.3)
'15 PATMI (SGDm)
523
631
(17.0)
'16 PATMI (SGDm)
551
721
(23.6)
Source: FactSet; Maybank
FYE Dec (SGD m) Revenue EBITDA Core net profit Core FDEPS (cts) Core FDEPS growth(%) Net DPS (cts) Core FD P/E (x) P/BV (x) Net dividend yield (%) ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Net debt/equity (%)
FY13A 2,847.3 1,158.2 463.9 3.8 (30.4) 1.0 24.1 1.5 1.1 6.6 3.6 14.5 net cash
FY14A 2,862.5 1,158.2 470.2 3.8 1.3 1.0 23.8 1.5 1.1 6.4 3.7 9.6 net cash
FY15E 2,826.0 1,191.6 523.5 4.3 12.2 1.0 21.2 1.4 1.1 6.9 4.2 7.1 net cash
FY16E 2,922.5 1,216.2 550.6 4.5 5.2 1.0 20.1 1.3 1.1 6.9 4.4 6.7 net cash
FY17E 3,068.5 1,283.7 617.4 5.1 12.1 1.0 17.9 1.3 1.1 7.3 5.0 6.0 net cash
SEE PAGE 12 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Yin Shao Yang (603) 2297 8916
[email protected]
PP16832/01/2013 (031128)
Genting Singapore Longer-term growth from foreign expansion We organised a group luncheon for about a dozen investors to meet Mr David Hoon – Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Ms Elena Arabadjieva – Director, Investor Relations. Discussions spanned credit extension, VIP volume, mass market, dividends, Japan and RWJ. We gathered that RWS continues to operate in a difficult environment, especially the VIP market. It will focus more on the higher-margin mass market. We gather that its near-term earnings outlook is stable while its longer-term growth will be led by RWJ, to open in 2H17.
Expect less credit extension and therefore, VIP volume After provisions for doubtful debts hit a new high of SGD82m in 4Q14, RWS will scale back on credit extension, especially to mainland Chinese. This is expected to lower its VIP volume. Recovering debt from mainland Chinese VIPs has been problematic not only because gambling debt collection is unenforceable in China but falling property prices and China’s anti-graft campaign continue to discourage gambling. Legal letters have been sent to delinquent VIPs but GENS admits that debt recovery has been few and far between. Figure 1: Estimated Singapore VIP volume (SGD b)… 30.0
Resorts World Sentosa
Marina Bay Sands
25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
-
Source: LVS, GENS, Maybank KE
Figure 2: … and YoY % growth 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 (10.0) 3Q11 (20.0) (30.0) (40.0)
1Q12
3Q12
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
Source: LVS, GENS, Maybank KE
Strong SGD a bane to mass market, non-gaming GENS acknowledges that the recent weakening of the MYR and IDR against SGD poses risks to RWS’s mass-market and non-gaming revenue. Malaysia and Indonesia are its two largest sources of mass-market foreign gamblers and visitors. That said, the strengthening THB and CNY against SGD should provide some buffer. Universal Studios Singapore is also introducing a Puss In Boots ride and show and resuming its Battlestar Galactica ride, in efforts to attract more visitors.
March 18, 2015
2
Genting Singapore Figure 3: SGD/MYR exchange rate…
Figure 4: … and SGD/IDR
2.75
10,000
2.70
9,800 9,600
2.65
9,400
2.60
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 5: Estimated Singapore mass-market GGR (SGD m)…
Figure 6: … and YoY % changes
700.0
Resorts World Sentosa
Marina Bay Sands
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
30.0
600.0
25.0
500.0
20.0
400.0
15.0
300.0
10.0
200.0
5.0
100.0
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Feb-14
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
8,800 Apr-14
2.50 Mar-14
9,000 Feb-14
2.55
Mar-14
9,200
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
-
Source: LVS, GENS, Maybank KE
(5.0)
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
(10.0) Source: LVS, GENS, Maybank KE
New Jurong Hotel to soften blow GENS’s new 550-room hotel, GHJ, will open in May 2015. GHJ is expected to take six months to ramp up fully. It will offer free shuttle services to RWS. GHJ will primarily target Malaysian mass-market gamblers, who are sensitive to hotel room rates. RWS’s 4Q14 average room rate was SGD422 or more than MYR1,000. This is onerous for the average Malaysian massmarket gambler. GHJ will be positioned as an economical hotel that will free up the budgets of the Malaysians for gambling at RWS.
Figure 7: Genting Hotel Jurong
Source: Business Times Singapore
March 18, 2015
3
Genting Singapore New Far East Group hotel to complement RWS in 2018 GENS is rightly optimistic on GHJ, in our view. Jurong is one of three sites considered for the Singapore station of the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High Speed Rail to be completed by 2020. GENS is keen to acquire or build more hotels, although asking prices are high despite the current property-market weakness. As a consolation, the Far East Group will be building an 850room hotel near RWS on Artillery Avenue. When completed in 2018, this hotel should help RWS accommodate more gamblers. Figure 8: Location of Village Hotel Sentosa & Outpost Hotel Sentosa by Far East
Village Hotel Sentosa & Outpost Hotel Sentosa
Source: Google Maps
New COO provides pivot to premium and grind mass On 24 Feb 2015, GENS announced the appointment of David Sisk as Chief Operating Officer. Mr Sisk had worked at Sands China (1928 HK, HOLD, TP HKD39.65), the mass-market leader in Macau, from Aug 2010 to Sep 2013. GHJ will free up rooms at RWS for him and his marketing team to market to new premium-mass and grind-mass gamblers, à la Sands China’s style. A new rewards card for premium-mass gamblers has been created. Its Maxim Club gaming floor has also been re-designated a premium-mass from VIP floor.
Unsure about Japan but dividends may rise as a result On its expansion into Japan, GENS is unsure on whether the Promotion Bill will be passed in the current ordinary Diet session which ends on 24 Jun 2015. We gather that the bill is more likely to be passed in an extraordinary Diet session in 4Q15, if ever. Although GENS is still hiring staff for an integrated resort in Japan, it is prepared to ‘walk away’ if forecast returns are low due to high land prices. More positively, it may then raise its annual DPS from one SGD ct currently, as it would have more unencumbered cash for distribution.
Quick recap of RWJ GENS and Landing International (582 HK, Not Rated) broke ground for their 230 ha RWJ on 12 Feb 2015. RWJ will cost USD1.8b and will open progressively from 2H17. When fully completed in 2019, it will house Jeju’s largest family theme park, at 500k sq m. This will offer more than 20 rides in seven themed zones. RWJ will also host Jeju’s largest adventure
March 18, 2015
4
Genting Singapore waterpark at 13k sq m, about 70k sq m of retail and food space, 2,000 hotel rooms, MICE facilities, gaming and entertainment amenities, 1,290 luxury serviced apartments and 228 residential villas. Figure 9: Resorts World Jeju Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Description Foreigners-only casino Luxury hotels and MICE facilities Destination spa Retail and F&B complexes Residential properties Adventure water park Theme park
Source: GENS
More optimistic on RWJ than before GENS went to great lengths to elaborate on RWJ’s potential:
Jeju is one of the few destinations in the world where mainland Chinese can enter without visas.
Mainland Chinese who enter South Korea via Jeju may extend their trips to the rest of South Korea visa-free for up to 72 hours.
Jeju has an international airport, operating five flights from Shanghai to Jeju daily. Flying time is only an hour.
Wealthy Chinese who purchase real estate worth more than USD0.5m are entitled to South Korean permanent residency.
Jeju welcomed 2.9m mainland Chinese in 2014. Singapore welcomed only 1.7m.
Junkets are allowed and can extend credit to VIPs. Jeju’s gaming tax is also very low at 10% of gross gaming revenue.
Profits from the sale of luxury serviced apartments and residential villas can reduce capex for RWJ by half to USD0.9b.
There are no integrated-resort-sized casinos in Jeju currently. RWJ will be the first.
While Jeju’s 2014 GGR was miniscule at USD200m, GENS believes RWJ’s entry will change all that.
March 18, 2015
5
Genting Singapore Conservative assumptions baked in After re-examining our assumptions, we deem them sufficiently conservative and leave our EPS unchanged. We have assumed flat EBITDA of SGD1.2b and core net profits of SGD520-550m for the next two years.
We already model in a 15% YoY contraction in 2015 VIP volume as less aggressive credit extension will generate less VIP volume.
We think 2015 VIP GGR will ease by a lesser 6% YoY as we assume 2015 VIP win rates will normalise to 2.85%.
We forecast a 10% rebound in 2016 VIP volume and GGR and a more tepid 5% in 2017 as the political and economic environment in China stabilises.
Despite lower VIP volume, we expect less aggressive credit extension to result in lower provisions for doubtful debts. We think doubtful debts as a percentage of RWS’s VIP GGR will normalise at 9%, its 2012-2013 average.
We already forecast that 2015-2016 mass-market GGR for RWS and Marina Bay Sands will ease 5% pa, owing to: (i)
Falling property prices in Singapore, which destroy wealth and affect the gambling propensity of Singaporeans.
(ii) MYR and IDR weakness against SGD will lower the gambling propensity of Malaysians and Indonesians. (iii) A 6% GST on 1 Apr 2015 in Malaysia will affect the gambling propensity of Malaysians.
We forecast that industry mass-market GGR will rebound 5% YoY in 2017 as economic conditions in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia stabilise.
RWS’s share of mass-market GGR will grow from 44% in 2014 to 47% in 2016E, thanks to GHJ and its new management team.
RWS’s mass-market GGR will be flat at SGD1.6-1.7b pa. Stability is important here as we estimate that mass-market EBITDA margins are much higher at 50-60% vs VIPs’ 10-20%.
While we are less sceptical on RWJ, we still have not incorporated any contributions, as it will only open in 2H17. We will only begin to include contributions 6-12 months before its opening. This offers upside potential.
Figure 10: Assumptions SGDm Industry VIP volume (A) RWS share of VIP volume (B) RWS VIP volume (C=AXB) RWS VIP win rate (D) RWS VIP GGR (E=CXD) Provisions for doubtful debts (F) As a % of VIP GGR (G=F/E) Industry mass-market GGR (H) RWS share of mass-market GGR (I) RWS mass-market GGR (J=HXI)
FY14A* 129,126.6 58.2% 75,186.1 2.57% 1,930.8
FY15E 116,214.0 55.0% 63,917.7 2.85% 1,821.7
FY16E 127,835.4 55.0% 70,309.5 2.85% 2,003.8
FY17E 134,227.1 55.0% 73,824.9 2.85% 2,104.0
262.0 13.6%
163.9 9.0%
180.3 9.0%
189.4 9.0%
3,877.9 43.5% 1,686.4
3,684.0 45.5% 1,676.2
3,499.8 47.0% 1,644.9
3,674.8 47.0% 1,727.1
* Maybank KE estimates Source: Maybank KE
March 18, 2015
6
Genting Singapore Unjustifiably cheap, downside limited Despite our below-consensus estimates, GENS is trading at multi-year lows of 7x forward EV/EBITDA, its trough in Mar 2010, and 1.4x forward P/BV, only 0.3x above its trough in Feb 2009. In fact, GENS now trades at a discount to Genting Malaysia (GENM MK, BUY, TP MYR4.60) and even American-centric casino operators whose prospects are generally perceived to be less exciting. It also helps that GENS has bought back 193.3m of its shares or 1.6% of its share capital since 13 Nov 2014. It is likely to continue doing so. Figure 11: Rolling 12M forward EV/EBITDA (x)
Figure 12: Rolling 12M forward P/BV (x)
20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 -
5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 -
+1 SD: 14.8x
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
+1 SD: 3.2x Mean: 2.4x -1 SD: 1.6x
Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Mar-14
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-13
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-12
Jul-11
Nov-11
Mar-11
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-10
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mean: 12.5x -1 SD: 10.2x
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
Figure 13: Global peer comparisons EV/EBITDA 2015 2016
2015
2016
1928 HK 1128 HK 27 HK 2282 HK 880 HK MPEL US
11.7 13.1 10.2 10.0 5.3 11.4
10.5 10.6 8.9 9.0 5.6 8.9
5.0 11.5 3.2 8.0 2.1 2.5
5.0 9.8 2.8 6.5 2.0 2.2
Cambodia NagaCorp
3918 HK
6.3
5.5
2.4
2.1
United States Caesars Entertainment Penn National Gaming Pinnacle Entertainment Boyd Gaming Isle of Capri Casinos
CZR US PENN US PNK US BYD US ISLE US
10.9 7.6 9.9 8.8 7.5
10.2 6.8 9.7 8.4 7.2
N/A 2.1 5.5 3.5 8.2
N/A 1.9 4.3 3.2 5.4
Malaysia Genting Malaysia Genting
GENM MY GENT MY
8.6 5.9
7.7 5.4
1.4 1.1
1.3 1.0
Philippines Bloomberry Resorts Travellers International Hotel Melco Crown (Philippines) Resorts
BLOOM PM RWM PM MCP PM
9.7 9.1 9.5
8.0 7.9 6.4
3.9 2.6 3.2
3.1 2.3 2.6
GENS SP
7.3
6.9
1.4
1.4
Company Macau Sands China Wynn Macau Galaxy Entertainment MGM China Holdings SJM Holdings Melco Crown Entertainment
Ticker
P/BV
Singapore Genting Singapore Source: Maybank KE, FactSet
March 18, 2015
7
Genting Singapore Selling may have been overdone Since GENS reported its worst-ever results on 24 Feb 2015, its share price has slid 12%. GENS reported 4Q14 EBITDA of only SGD190.2m. On closer examination, this was due to: i) A low VIP win rate of 2.2%, which should normalise to a theoretical long-term average of 2.85%. GENS’s 4Q14 EBITDA would have been much higher at around SGD280m if its VIP win rate had normalised at an annualised SGD1.1b or close to our FY15E of SGD1.2b. ii) Record-high provisions for doubtful debts of SGD82m, which can be managed via more stringent credit checks, in our view. Figure 14: RWS’s EBITDA (SGD m) Reported EBITDA
Hold adjusted EBITDA
600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
2Q10
-
Source: GENS
Upgrade from HOLD to BUY We do not believe GENS should trade at 2SD below its 5-year EV/EBITDA mean. Investors should also not discount GHJ and its new COO who could help RWS expand its mass-market business. Most of RWS’s current woes stem from its low-margin VIP business, which is credit-dependent. Maintain SGD1.08 SOTP-based TP, implying 9x FY15E EV/EBITDA. Re-rating catalysts are expected from success in its mass-market initiatives.
Figure 15: SOTP valuation EBITDA (SGD m) 1,206.5 (14.9)
RWS Others Net cash/(debt) Singapore Technology Building Jurong land RWJ AFS financial assets Equity value
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.0 9.0
EV (SGD m) 10,858.6 (134.4) 223.4 146.0 388.2 187.5 1,512.4 13,181.7
EV/sh (SGD) 0.89 (0.01) 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.12 1.08
Comments
End-2015 Cost Cost Investment Cost
Source: Maybank KE
March 18, 2015
8
Genting Singapore FYE 31 Dec Key Metrics P/E (reported) (x) Core P/E (x) Core FD P/E (x) P/BV (x) P/NTA (x) Net dividend yield (%) FCF yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x)
INCOME STATEMENT (SGD m) Revenue EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest income /(exp) Associates & JV Exceptionals Pretax profit Income tax Minorities Perpetual securities Discontinued operations Reported net profit Core net profit
BALANCE SHEET (SGD m) Cash & Short Term Investments Accounts receivable Inventory Property, Plant & Equip (net) Intangible assets Investment in Associates & JVs Other assets Total assets ST interest bearing debt Accounts payable LT interest bearing debt Other liabilities Total Liabilities Shareholders Equity Minority Interest Total shareholder equity Perpetual securities Total liabilities and equity
CASH FLOW (SGD m) Pretax profit Depreciation & amortisation Adj net interest (income)/exp Change in working capital Cash taxes paid Other operating cash flow Cash flow from operations Capex Free cash flow Dividends paid Equity raised / (purchased) Perpetual securities Change in Debt Perpetual securities distribution Other invest/financing cash flow Effect of exch rate changes Net cash flow
March 18, 2015
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
18.9 24.0 24.1 1.5 1.5 1.1 3.9 14.5 22.7
21.5 23.7 23.8 1.5 1.5 1.1 6.8 9.6 15.0
21.0 21.0 21.2 1.4 1.4 1.1 7.8 7.1 11.2
20.0 20.0 20.1 1.3 1.4 1.1 8.8 6.7 10.5
17.8 17.8 17.9 1.3 1.3 1.1 9.2 6.0 9.2
2,847.3 1,158.2 (422.3) 735.9 (15.2) (0.7) 125.5 845.5 (137.8) (0.4) (117.9) 0.0 589.4 463.9
2,862.5 1,158.2 (419.4) 738.7 8.3 10.6 47.1 804.8 (169.6) 0.0 (117.9) 0.0 517.3 470.2
2,826.0 1,191.6 (434.3) 757.3 7.2 (0.7) 0.0 763.8 (122.0) 0.0 (118.3) 0.0 523.5 523.5
2,922.5 1,216.2 (438.4) 777.8 19.4 (0.7) 0.0 796.5 (127.6) 0.0 (118.3) 0.0 550.6 550.6
3,068.5 1,283.7 (438.4) 845.3 32.3 (0.7) 0.0 877.0 (141.3) 0.0 (118.3) 0.0 617.4 617.4
3,761.4 1,115.9 56.1 6,094.6 139.4 36.8 1,869.9 13,074.1 522.4 758.4 1,702.9 443.0 3,426.9 7,338.9 0.0 7,338.9 2,308.3 13,074.1
3,836.8 1,100.6 53.6 5,809.1 119.0 133.3 1,619.8 12,672.2 518.7 595.7 1,184.6 670.0 2,968.9 7,395.0 0.0 7,395.0 2,308.3 12,672.2
3,716.2 1,086.6 53.0 5,566.1 119.0 320.1 1,619.8 12,480.8 592.2 571.2 592.2 619.0 2,375.1 7,797.4 0.0 7,797.4 2,308.3 12,480.8
3,463.6 1,123.7 54.8 5,273.8 119.0 694.5 1,619.8 12,349.2 592.2 596.3 0.0 625.0 1,813.9 8,227.0 0.0 8,227.0 2,308.3 12,349.2
3,261.4 1,179.8 57.5 4,988.9 119.0 1,068.8 1,619.8 12,295.3 0.0 623.8 0.0 640.0 1,263.6 8,723.3 0.0 8,723.3 2,308.3 12,295.3
845.5 422.3 15.2 (261.8) (215.2) 14.4 820.5 (391.8) 428.7 (122.2) 1.5 0.0 (497.4) (117.9) (450.5) 4.3 (753.4)
804.8 419.4 (8.3) (357.9) (153.2) 250.8 955.6 (195.1) 760.5 (122.4) (169.4) 0.0 (539.4) (117.9) 231.6 24.3 67.3
763.8 434.3 (7.2) (9.7) (172.7) 39.5 1,048.0 (191.3) 856.7 (121.1) 0.0 0.0 (518.8) (118.3) (219.1) 0.0 (120.6)
796.5 438.4 (19.4) (13.8) (121.7) 39.5 1,119.6 (146.1) 973.4 (121.1) 0.0 0.0 (592.2) (118.3) (394.5) 0.0 (252.6)
877.0 438.4 (32.3) (31.4) (126.7) 39.5 1,164.4 (153.4) 1,011.0 (121.1) 0.0 0.0 (592.2) (118.3) (381.5) 0.0 (202.1)
9
Genting Singapore FYE 31 Dec Key Ratios Growth ratios (%) Revenue growth EBITDA growth EBIT growth Pretax growth Reported net profit growth Core net profit growth
FY13A
FY14A
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
(3.4) (14.9) (24.2) (2.2) 0.3 (30.3)
0.5 (0.0) 0.4 (4.8) (12.2) 1.3
(1.3) 2.9 2.5 (5.1) 1.2 11.3
3.4 2.1 2.7 4.3 5.2 5.2
5.0 5.5 8.7 10.1 12.1 12.1
Profitability ratios (%) EBITDA margin EBIT margin Pretax profit margin Payout ratio
40.7 25.8 29.7 20.7
40.5 25.8 28.1 23.6
42.2 26.8 27.0 23.1
41.6 26.6 27.3 22.0
41.8 27.5 28.6 19.6
DuPont analysis Net profit margin (%) Revenue/Assets (x) Assets/Equity (x) ROAE (%) ROAA (%)
20.7 0.2 1.8 6.6 3.6
18.1 0.2 1.7 6.4 3.7
18.5 0.2 1.6 6.9 4.2
18.8 0.2 1.5 6.9 4.4
20.1 0.2 1.4 7.3 5.0
(18.8) 131.2 11.7 161.7 4.8 4.3
8.0 139.4 11.6 143.0 4.2 4.1
22.5 139.3 11.7 128.5 4.3 4.0
24.3 136.1 11.4 123.2 4.5 3.8
23.4 135.1 11.3 123.1 5.1 5.7
3.8 net cash 48.3 1.9 13.8 (1,536.1)
4.3 net cash na 1.5 6.8 (2,133.5)
5.3 net cash na 1.0 6.8 (2,531.7)
6.8 net cash na 0.5 5.0 (2,871.3)
9.7 net cash na 0.0 5.0 (3,261.4)
Liquidity & Efficiency Cash conversion cycle Days receivable outstanding Days inventory outstanding Days payables outstanding Dividend cover (x) Current ratio (x) Leverage & Expense Analysis Asset/Liability (x) Net debt/equity (%) Net interest cover (x) Debt/EBITDA (x) Capex/revenue (%) Net debt/ (net cash) Source: Company; Maybank
March 18, 2015
10
Genting Singapore Research Offices REGIONAL
HONG KONG / CHINA
INDONESIA
WONG Chew Hann, CA Regional Head of Institutional Research (603) 2297 8686
[email protected]
Howard WONG Head of Research (852) 2268 0648
[email protected] • Oil & Gas - Regional
Wilianto IE Head of Research (62) 21 2557 1125
[email protected] • Strategy
ONG Seng Yeow Regional Head of Retail Research (65) 6432 1453
[email protected]
Alexander LATZER (852) 2268 0647
[email protected] • Metals & Mining – Regional
Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 2557 1128
[email protected] • Banking & Finance
Jacqueline KO, CFA (852) 2268 0633
[email protected] • Consumer Staples & Durables
Aurellia SETIABUDI (62) 21 2953 0785
[email protected] • Property
Alexander GARTHOFF Institutional Product Manager (852) 2268 0638
[email protected]
ECONOMICS Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist Singapore | Malaysia (603) 2297 8682
[email protected] Luz LORENZO Philippines (63) 2 849 8836
[email protected] Tim LEELAHAPHAN Thailand (66) 2658 6300 ext 1420
[email protected] JUNIMAN Chief Economist, BII Indonesia (62) 21 29228888 ext 29682
[email protected]
STRATEGY Sadiq Currimbhoy Global Strategist (65) 6231 5836
[email protected] Willie Chan Hong Kong / Regional (852) 2268 0631
[email protected]
MALAYSIA WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research (603) 2297 8686
[email protected] • Strategy • Construction & Infrastructure Desmond CH’NG, ACA (603) 2297 8680
[email protected] • Banking & Finance LIAW Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688
[email protected] • Oil & Gas - Regional • Shipping ONG Chee Ting, CA (603) 2297 8678
[email protected] • Plantations - Regional
Ka Leong LO, CFA (852) 2268 0630
[email protected] • Consumer Discretionary & Auto Benjamin HO (852) 2268 0632
[email protected] • Consumer & Auto Karen KWAN (852) 2268 0640
[email protected] • Property & REITs Osbert TANG, CFA (86) 21 5096 8370
[email protected] • Transport & Industrials Ricky WK NG, CFA (852) 2268 0689
[email protected] • Utilities & Renewable Energy Steven ST CHAN (852) 2268 0645
[email protected] • Banking & Financials - Regional Warren LAU (852) 2268 0644
[email protected] • Technology – Regional
INDIA Jigar SHAH Head of Research (91) 22 6632 2632
[email protected] • Oil & Gas • Automobile • Cement Anubhav GUPTA (91) 22 6623 2605
[email protected] • Metal & Mining • Capital Goods • Property Vishal MODI (91) 22 6623 2607
[email protected] • Banking & Financials Abhijeet Kundu (91) 22 6623 2628
[email protected] • Consumer
SINGAPORE NG Wee Siang Head of Research (65) 6231 5838
[email protected] • Banking & Finance
Mohshin AZIZ (603) 2297 8692
[email protected] • Aviation - Regional • Petrochem
Gregory YAP (65) 6231 5848
[email protected] • SMID Caps – Regional • Technology & Manufacturing • Telcos
YIN Shao Yang, CPA (603) 2297 8916
[email protected] • Gaming – Regional • Media
YEAK Chee Keong, CFA (65) 6231 5842
[email protected] • Offshore & Marine
TAN Chi Wei, CFA (603) 2297 8690
[email protected] • Power • Telcos
Derrick HENG, CFA (65) 6231 5843
[email protected] • Transport (Land, Shipping & Aviation)
WONG Wei Sum, CFA (603) 2297 8679
[email protected] • Property & REITs
WEI Bin (65) 6231 5844
[email protected] • Commodity • Logistics • S-chips
LEE Yen Ling (603) 2297 8691
[email protected] • Building Materials • Glove Producers
John CHEONG (65) 6231 5845
[email protected] • Small & Mid Caps • Healthcare
CHAI Li Shin, CFA (603) 2297 8684
[email protected] • Plantation • Construction & Infrastructure
TRUONG Thanh Hang (65) 6231 5847
[email protected] • Small & Mid Caps
Isnaputra ISKANDAR (62) 21 2557 1129
[email protected] • Metals & Mining • Cement Pandu ANUGRAH (62) 21 2557 1137
[email protected] • Infra • Construction • Transport• Telcos Janni ASMAN (62) 21 2953 0784
[email protected] • Cigarette • Healthcare • Retail Adhi Tasmin (62) 21 2557 1209
[email protected] • Plantations
PHILIPPINES Luz LORENZO Head of Research (63) 2 849 8836
[email protected] • Strategy • Utilities • Conglomerates • Telcos Lovell SARREAL (63) 2 849 8841
[email protected] • Consumer • Media • Cement Rommel RODRIGO (63) 2 849 8839
[email protected] • Conglomerates • Property • Gaming • Ports/ Logistics Katherine TAN (63) 2 849 8843
[email protected] • Banks • Construction Ramon ADVIENTO (63) 2 849 8845
[email protected] • Mining Michael Bengson (63) 2 849 8840
[email protected] • Conglomerates Jaclyn Jimenez (63) 2 849 8842
[email protected] • Consumer Arabelle Maghirang (63) 2 849 8838
[email protected] • Banks
THAILAND Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399
[email protected] • Consumer • Materials • Ind.Estates
Suttatip PEERASUB (66) 2658 6300 ext 1430
[email protected] • Media • Commerce Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1400
[email protected] • Energy • Petrochem Termporn TANTIVIVAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1520
[email protected] • Property Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG (66) 2658 6300 ext 1404
[email protected] • Transportation • Small cap Chatchai JINDARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1401
[email protected] • Electronics
VIETNAM LE Hong Lien, ACCA Head of Institutional Research (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8181
[email protected] • Strategy • Consumer • Diversified • Utilities THAI Quang Trung, CFA, Deputy Manager, Institutional Research (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8180
[email protected] • Real Estate • Construction • Materials Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8082
[email protected] • Oil & Gas NGUYEN Thi Ngan Tuyen, Head of Retail Research (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8081
[email protected] • Food & Beverage • Oil&Gas • Banking TRINH Thi Ngoc Diep (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8208
[email protected] • Technology • Utilities • Construction TRUONG Quang Binh (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8087
[email protected] • Rubber plantation • Tyres and Tubes • Oil&Gas PHAM Nhat Bich (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8083
[email protected] • Consumer • Manufacturing • Fishery NGUYEN Thi Sony Tra Mi (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8084
[email protected] • Port operation • Pharmaceutical • Food & Beverage
Kittisorn PRUITIPAT, CFA, FRM (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395
[email protected] • Real Estate • Telcos Sittichai DUANGRATTANACHAYA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393
[email protected] • Services Sector • Transport
Kevin WONG (603) 2082 6824
[email protected] • REITs
Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL Head of Retail Research (66) 2658 6300 ext 5090
[email protected]
LEE Cheng Hooi Regional Chartist (603) 2297 8694
[email protected]
Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN (66) 2658 6300 ext 1440
[email protected] • Strategy
March 18, 2015
Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1470
[email protected] • Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel
Jesada TECHAHUSDIN, CFA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394
[email protected] • Financial Services
Ivan YAP (603) 2297 8612
[email protected] • Automotive
Tee Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research (603) 2297 6858
[email protected]
Padon VANNARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1450
[email protected] • Strategy
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Genting Singapore APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES DISCLAIMERS This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction’s stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors’ returns may be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, “MKE”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees (collectively, “Representatives”) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice. This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. MKE expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. MKE may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of MKE may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report. This report is prepared for the use of MKE’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on geographical location of the person or entity receiving this report. Malaysia Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis. Singapore This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (“Maybank KERPL”) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in Singapore, recipients of this report are to contact Maybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law. Thailand The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (“MBKET”) does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result. Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of MBKET. MBKET accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. US This research report prepared by MKE is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (“Maybank KESUSA”), a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank KESUSA in the US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is not directed at you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant legislation and regulations. UK This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (“Maybank KESL”) which is authorized and regulated, by the Financial Services Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.
March 18, 2015
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Genting Singapore DISCLOSURES Legal Entities Disclosures Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 197201256N) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Kim Eng Securities (“PTKES”) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the BAPEPAM LK. Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Philippines: Maybank ATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Vietnam: Maybank Kim Eng Securities JSC (License Number: 71/UBCK-GP) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam.Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (“KESI”) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (Reg No: INF/INB 231452435) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (Reg. No. INF/INB 011452431) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA – Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
Disclosure of Interest Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Singapore: As of 18 March 2015, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report. Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission. As of 18 March 2015, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.
OTHERS Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. Reminder Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
Ong Seng Yeow | Executive Director, Maybank Kim Eng Research
Definition of Ratings Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) HOLD Return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) SELL Return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
Applicability of Ratings The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
March 18, 2015
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Genting Singapore Malaysia
Singapore
London
New York
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Stockbroking Business: Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2297 8888 Fax: (603) 2282 5136
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Tel: (852) 2268 0800 Fax: (852) 2877 0104
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Tel: (91) 22 6623 2600 Fax: (91) 22 6623 2604
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
Saudi Arabia
Maybank ATR Kim Eng Securities Inc. 17/F, Tower One & Exchange Plaza Ayala Triangle, Ayala Avenue Makati City, Philippines 1200
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In association with
Tel: (63) 2 849 8888 Fax: (63) 2 848 5738
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South Asia Sales Trading
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Kevin Foy Regional Head Sales Trading
[email protected] Tel: (65) 6336-5157 US Toll Free: 1-866-406-7447
Alex Tsun
[email protected] Tel: (852) 2268 0228 US Toll Free: 1 877 837 7635
Malaysia
Thailand
Rommel Jacob
[email protected] Tel: (603) 2717 5152
Tanasak Krishnasreni
[email protected] Tel: (66)2 658 6820
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Indonesia Harianto Liong
[email protected] Tel: (62) 21 2557 1177
New York
India
Andrew Dacey
[email protected] Tel: (212) 688 2956
Manish Modi
[email protected] Tel: (91)-22-6623-2601
Vietnam
Philippines
Tien Nguyen
Keith Roy
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[email protected]
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March 18, 2015
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