Singapore Company Focus

Pan-United Corporation Bloomberg: PAN SP

|

Reuters: PANU.SI

DBS Group Research . Equity

7 Aug 2012

BUY S$0.58 STI : 3,071.82

Concrete demand drives growth

Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.78 (Prev S$ 0.70) Reason for Report : 2Q12 results; Earnings/TP upgrade Potential Catalyst: Robust construction demand, M&A activities DBSV vs Consensus: Below consensus

 Interim DPS of 1.5 Scents declared, supporting our 6% dividend yield for FY12F

 Net profit of S$13.2m above our expectation on higher ready-mixed-concrete demand

 Raise FY12F and FY13F earnings by 6% each

Analyst Alfie YEO +65 6398 7957 [email protected]

 Maintain BUY with higher TP of S$0.78 2Q12 earnings above expectations. Earnings grew 51% y-o-y in 2Q12 to S$13.2m driven by higher readymixed-concrete demand and disposal gains of S$2.2m from the sale of three pairs of tugboats and barges. Higher concrete demand from projects such as Downtown Line, LNG terminal and Sports Hub supported revenue growth of 41% to S$181.8m. Stripping out S$2.2m gains from sale of vessels, pretax profit grew 19% to S$16.5m, above our expectations. 1H12 earnings of S$22.7m accounted for 61% of our previous full year estimate.

HO Pei Hwa +65 6398 7968 [email protected]

Price Relative S$

R e la t iv e In d e x

0 .7 0 .7

205

0 .6

185

0 .6

165

0 .5

145

0 .5

125

0 .4

105 85

0 .4

65

0 .3 A u g -0 8

A u g -0 9

A u g -1 0

P a n - U n it e d C o r p o r a t io n ( L H S )

A u g -1 1

A u g -1 2

R e la t iv e S T I IN D E X ( R H S )

Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (S$ m)

Revenue EBITDA Pre-tax Profit Net Profit Net Pft (Pre Ex.) EPS (S cts) EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) EPS Gth (%) EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) Diluted EPS (S cts) Net DPS (S cts) BV Per Share (S cts) PE (X) PE Pre Ex. (X) P/Cash Flow (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Net Div Yield (%) P/Book Value (X) Net Debt/Equity (X) ROAE (%)

2011A

2012F

2013F

2014F

513 75 49 30 30 5.5 5.5 50 50 5.4 3.5 53.6 10.6 10.6 5.7 4.7 6.0 1.1 CASH 10.5

696 87 64 40 38 7.2 6.8 32 25 7.2 3.5 57.6 8.0 8.5 7.2 4.2 6.0 1.0 CASH 12.9

728 92 66 41 41 7.4 7.4 2 8 7.3 3.5 61.5 7.9 7.9 3.6 3.6 6.0 0.9 CASH 12.4

758 96 71 44 44 8.0 8.0 8 8 7.9 3.5 66.0 7.3 7.3 4.3 3.3 6.0 0.9 CASH 12.5

6.4 6.2 B: 2

5.8 6.4 S: 0

6.0 H: 0

Earnings Rev (%): Consensus EPS (S cts): Other Broker Recs:

ICB Industry : Industrials ICB Sector: Industrial Transportation Principal Business: Diversified industrial group with interests in marine, port, shipping and industrial & trading across the AsiaPacific region.

Source of all data: Company, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg

www.dbsvickers.com Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report ed: JS / sa: JC

Interim DPS of 1.5 Scents declared, supports dividend yield of 6%. Interim DPS of 1.5 Scents was declared, on track to meet our full year estimate of 3.5 Scents. PAN’s dividend yield now stands at an attractive 6%. Maintain BUY; TP raised to S$0.78. Demand for building materials is expected to remain buoyant on the back of robust construction spending projected by the BCA at c.S$30bn in 2012. The shipping division should bottom out gradually on stabilising industry outlook while Ports division’s net margin is likely to be challenged by higher taxes. We raise our FY12F and FY13F estimates by 6% each on the back of a pick up in RMC volumes. Rolling over our valuation to FY13F, our SOTP TP is adjusted to S$0.78. Maintain Buy. At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) Major Shareholders Han Whatt Ng (%) Free Float (%) Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000)

551 320 / 258 62.0 38.0 152

Company Focus Pan-United Corporation

Results Summary and Comments chg

chg

FY Dec (S$m)

2Q11

1Q12

2Q12 q-o-q

y-o-y

Comments

Sales

129.1

162.2

181.7

41%

Above expectations on better concrete demand Higher raw materials, subcontract and other direct costs

Cost of Goods Sold

(107.5) (137.4) (153.5)

12% 12%

43%

21.6

24.9

28.3

14%

31%

Lower gross margins but above expectations

1.5

0.4

1.4

n/m

-2%

Includes dividend income from investment S$1.6m

Other Operating Expenses

(8.5)

(10.4)

(12.6)

21%

49%

Higher opex due to more business activities

EBIT

14.6

14.9

17.1

15%

17%

Lower operating margins on higher opex

Interest Income

0.1

0.1

0.1

8%

53%

In line

Interest Expense

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.2)

3%

0%

In line

0.4

0.4

0.5

12%

In line

Gross Profit Other Operating Income

Associates' or JV Income

0.0

0.0

2.2

32% n/m

n/m

Sold three pairs of Tugs and Barges in 1Q12 for gain of S$2.2m

Pretax Profit

13.9

14.2

18.7

32%

35%

Stripping disposal gains, PBT would be S$16.5m (19% yoy growth),

Tax

(3.0)

(3.1)

(3.7)

19%

23%

Minority Interests

(2.1)

(1.6)

(1.8)

14%

-14%

8.8

9.5

13.2

39%

51%

Exceptional Gains/(Losses)

exceeding expectations

Net Profit

Above our expectations, 1H12 contributed 61% of our full year forecast

Margins 2Q11

1Q12

chg

chg

2Q12

q-o-q

y-o-y

%

%

%

ppt

ppt

Gross margins (%)

16.7

15.3

15.5

0.2

(1.2)

EBITDA margins (%)

15.7

12.4

12.2

(0.2)

(3.5)

EBIT margins (%)

11.3

9.2

9.4

0.2

(1.9)

Pre tax margins (%)

10.8

8.8

10.3

1.5

(0.5)

Net margins (%)

6.8

5.9

7.3

1.4

0.5

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

SOTP valuation of PAN Sum of parts FY13 Net Profit (S$ m)

Basis

Basic Building Material

29.7

7.0

PE

Shipping

0.9

0.8

P/Bv

47.6

Port

10.1

7.0

PE

70.9

1.0

P/Bv

Others* Add cash/(debt) Total value (S$ m)

207.7

91.5 18.1

40.7

SOTP per share (S$)

*Others relate to companies which are of investment holding in nature. Source: DBS Vickers

Page 2

FY13 Value (S$ m)

435.8 0.78

Company Focus Pan-United Corporation Key Assumptions FY Dec

2010A

2011A

2012F

2013F

2014F

2,473.8 97.2

3,358.8 108.8

4,585.4 110.4

4,852.9 114.4

5,059.2 115.8

2010A

2011A

2012F

2013F

2014F

53 30 309

59 21 433

66 27 602

66 28 634

68 26 664

Total Net Profit Ex EI (S$ m) Port Shipping Basic Building Materials

391

513

696

728

758

7 (5) 20

8 (1) 27

9 (2) 24

9 1 30

7 2 32

Total Net Profit Ex EI Port Shipping Basic Building Materials

22

35

31

41

42

13.4 (15.3) 6.3

14.1 (2.8) 6.3

14.3 (7.2) 4.0

13.8 3.4 4.7

10.9 6.5 4.9

5.6

6.8

4.5

5.6

5.6

FY Dec

2010A

2011A

2012F

2013F

2014F

11.0%

Revenue Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit Other Opng (Exp)/Inc Operating Profit Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc Exceptional Gain/(Loss) Pre-tax Profit Tax Minority Interest Preference Dividend Net Profit Net Profit before Except. EBITDA Growth Revenue Gth (%) EBITDA Gth (%) Opg Profit Gth (%) Net Profit Gth (%) Margins & Ratio Gross Margins (%) Opg Profit Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) ROAE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) Div Payout Ratio (%) Net Interest Cover (x)

391 (337) 55 (20) 35 0 2 (5) 0 32 (4) (7) 0 20 20 56

513 (430) 83 (31) 52 0 2 (4) 0 49 (11) (8) 0 30 30 75

696 (588) 108 (43) 65 0 2 (4) 2 64 (13) (11) 0 40 38 87

728 (616) 112 (44) 68 0 2 (4) 0 66 (14) (12) 0 41 41 92

758 (641) 117 (44) 73 0 2 (4) 0 71 (15) (13) 0 44 44 96

10.0%

(16.9) (18.5) (30.3) (41.5)

31.0 33.9 49.6 49.7

35.7 16.4 24.4 31.4

4.6 5.5 5.4 2.0

4.2 5.3 7.2 8.3

14.0 8.9 5.2 7.2 4.2 7.1 82.2 7.3

16.1 10.2 5.9 10.5 6.0 9.5 64.1 12.0

15.5 9.3 5.7 12.9 7.3 11.7 48.5 15.1

15.4 9.4 5.6 12.4 6.7 11.5 47.6 18.1

15.5 9.6 5.8 12.5 6.7 11.4 43.9 20.8

RMC sales volume (m3) RMC prices (S$ / m3)

Segmental Breakdown FY Dec

Revenues (S$ m) Port Shipping Basic Building Materials

Total

Margins Trend

Income Statement (S$ m)

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Impact from higher tax rates

9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2010A

2011A

Operating Margin %

2012F

2013F

2014F

Net Income Margin %

Expect 3.5 cents dividends for FY12F, interim dividend of 1.5 cents declared.

Page 3

Company Focus Pan-United Corporation

Revenue Trend

Growth Revenue Gth (%) EBITDA Gth (%) Opg Profit Gth (%) Net Profit Gth (%) Margins Gross Margins (%) Opg Profit Margins (%) Net Profit Margins (%)

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Page 4

162 (137) 25 (10) 15 0 0 (1) 0 14 (3) (2) 10 10 21

182 (153) 28 (11) 17 0 0 (1) 2 19 (4) (2) 13 11 23

27.1 30.0 33.8 42.1

6.0 2.7 (2.6) (0.6)

6.0 (3.5) (12.9) (23.5)

11.8 (0.1) 20.6 42.8

12.0 10.2 14.6 38.6

16.7 11.3 6.8

16.5 10.4 6.4

15.0 8.5 4.6

15.3 9.2 5.9

15.5 9.4 7.3

25% 20%

140

15%

120

10%

100 5%

80

0%

60 40

-5%

20

-10%

0

-15%

Revenue

2Q2012

145 (123) 22 (9) 12 0 0 (1) 0 12 (3) (2) 7 7 21

160

4Q2011

137 (114) 23 (8) 14 0 0 (1) 0 14 (3) (2) 9 9 21

30%

180

1Q2012

129 (108) 22 (7) 15 0 0 (1) 0 14 (3) (2) 9 9 21

200

3Q2011

2Q2012

2Q2011

1Q2012

1Q2011

4Q2011

4Q2010

3Q2011

3Q2010

Revenue Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc Operating Profit Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc Exceptional Gain/(Loss) Pre-tax Profit Tax Minority Interest Net Profit Net profit bef Except. EBITDA

2Q2011

2Q2010

FY Dec

1Q2010

Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (S$ m)

Revenue Growth % (QoQ)

Sale of three pairs of tugs and barges for S$2.2m gain.

Driven by building materials segment

Company Focus Pan-United Corporation Balance Sheet (S$ m) FY Dec

Asset Breakdown (2012) 2010A

2011A

2012F

2013F

2014F

Net Fixed Assets Invts in Associates & JVs Other LT Assets Cash & ST Invts Inventory Debtors Other Current Assets Total Assets

264 5 17 95 14 92 2 490

272 5 20 91 16 122 2 528

282 6 20 81 23 158 2 572

290 8 20 124 24 165 2 633

299 10 20 151 25 172 2 679

ST Debt Other Current Liab LT Debt Other LT Liabilities Shareholder’s Equity Minority Interests Total Cap. & Liab.

5 61 94 11 282 37 490

0 101 73 13 298 43 528

0 118 68 13 319 54 572

0 144 70 13 340 66 633

0 150 72 13 365 79 679

Non-Cash Wkg. Capital Net Cash/(Debt) Debtors Turn (avg days) Creditors Turn (avg days) Inventory Turn (avg days) Asset Turnover (x) Current Ratio (x) Quick Ratio (x) Net Debt/Equity (X) Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) Capex to Debt (%) Z-Score (X)

47 (4) 81.5 64.3 15.5 0.8 3.1 2.8 0.0 0.0 10.1 3.1

39 18 76.3 63.6 13.5 1.0 2.3 2.1 CASH (0.1) 22.6 3.0

64 13 73.4 59.1 12.4 1.3 2.2 2.0 CASH 0.0 44.0 3.4

47 54 81.1 67.9 14.2 1.2 2.2 2.0 CASH (0.2) 42.8 3.2

49 79 81.3 74.0 14.2 1.2 2.3 2.2 CASH (0.2) 41.6 0.0

Net Fixed Assets 51.2%

Inventory 4.1%

Bank, Cash and Liquid Assets 14.8%

Assocs'/JVs 1.1%

Capital Expenditure

Cash Flow Statement (S$ m) FY Dec

Debtors 28.7%

2010A

2011A

2012F

2013F

2014F

32 19 (3) (2) (10) (5) 31 (10) 0 0 2 4 (4) (17) 17 2 (7) (4) (2) 21 7.4 3.8

49 21 (4) (2) (9) 0 56 (17) 1 0 2 4 (9) (17) (30) 0 (3) (50) (1) (3) 11.7 7.1

64 20 (8) (2) (31) 0 45 (30) 0 0 0 0 (30) (19) (5) 0 0 (24) 0 (10) 13.6 2.6

66 22 (13) (2) 17 0 90 (30) 0 0 0 0 (30) (19) 2 0 0 (17) 0 42 13.2 10.8

71 21 (14) (2) (3) 0 75 (30) 0 0 0 0 (30) (19) 2 0 0 (17) 0 27 14.0 8.1

35

Pre-Tax Profit Dep. & Amort. Tax Paid Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) Chg in Wkg.Cap. Other Operating CF Net Operating CF Capital Exp.(net) Other Invts.(net) Invts in Assoc. & JV Div from Assoc & JV Other Investing CF Net Investing CF Div Paid Chg in Gross Debt Capital Issues Other Financing CF Net Financing CF Currency Adjustments Chg in Cash Opg CFPS (S cts) Free CFPS (S cts)

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010A

2011A

2012F

2013F

2014F

Capital Expenditure (-)

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Page 5

Company Focus Pan-United Corporation

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Company Focus Pan-United Corporation

COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries do not have a proprietary position in the company mentioned as 1. of 03-Aug-2012 2.

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3.

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