Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

89

2nd PROOFS -- ready for press? -- 19 Oct

Truong Thi Kim Chuyen obtained her Ph.D. in Economic Geography at Saint Petersburg University (Russia) (1992). She is a Senior Lecturer in the Geography and Anthropology Departments, University of Social Sciences and Humanities. Her research focuses on human geography and development studies, especially on gender and poverty reduction. She has been involved in different projects related to poverty reduction and gender funded by UNDP, CIDA, SIDA, and NGO’s projects as a researcher, consultant, coordinator, or facilitator. She is the author of many papers and chapters on development and social issues in Vietnam. Steffanie Scott is Assistant Professor of Geography at the University of Waterloo. She completed her Ph.D. at the University of British Columbia in 2001. Her dissertation and subsequent research has focused on rural livelihoods in the face of agricultural decollectivization. In particular, she examines processes shaping vulnerability of small farmers, including female-headed households and ethnic minority populations, through property rights reforms. Steffanie has also been involved in academic capacity-building and consulting on localized poverty reduction in Vietnam, and research on development cooperation and the role of universities in local development.

90

Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

3 Behind the Numbers: Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development in Rural Vietnam Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

The spatial and regional dimensions of inequality and economic development have been gaining more attention in the past few years. What have been the spatial ramifications of Vietnam’s recent reforms — the geographies of socio-economic transition? Are the benefits of doi moi’s economic success being experienced equally in regions around Vietnam, or concentrated in a few core areas? How can rural inter-regional inequality in Vietnam be characterized, and why have some areas and some people benefited more than others? These are some of the questions considered in this chapter. The doi moi economic reforms introduced since the late 1980s in Vietnam implied a shift away from collective agriculture, the endorsement of private economic activity, and the legalization of foreign investment. The growing market economy is leading the population out of the shared poverty that characterized the

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

91

period of subsidies and collectivization. But the process is also producing greater degrees of socio-economic differentiation at multiple scales: between households, ethnic groups, villages, and regions. This chapter outlines the emerging socio-economic trends in regional disparities and the multiple mechanisms at work in shaping these disparities in Vietnam. Some economic analyses consider rises in inequality (or divergence in regional development measures) as inevitable outcomes of economic growth at certain stages in the development process. Other theories predict convergence, suggesting that over time the inequalities will lessen.1 One problem with such theories is that they do not consider non-economic determinants of regional inequality. Vietnam has an extremely diverse physical geography, which has shaped the evolution of its human geography as well. Natural resources, soil fertility, and being located in areas prone to floods or storms, or in mountainous and remote areas are all factors that contribute to regional disparities in income. However, as opportunities for off-farm income rise, these physical geography factors are less important than socio-economic variables in explaining regional inequalities. Location has an important effect on the economic strength of some regions over others. This may be through opportunities for industrial and service sector employment, or from being a frontier area, an old liberated area of support for the revolution, an area of ethnic minorities, a city suburb, or a commune or district classified as poor. We look behind the numbers to explain some of the dynamics of differentiation across rural Vietnam. This includes access to resources, information, and social infrastructure for development and entrepreneurship. We link the parallel trends towards greater social mobility and regional differentiation to Vietnam’s current development orientation: a model of regional development allowing growth poles to flourish, with limited inter-regional redistribution of wealth. But interpretations of the widening or narrowing of regional inequality since the introduction of market-oriented reforms depend on the choice of definition of a region and scale of measurement. In the first section we discuss the debate over defining a region and the significance of changes to administrative boundaries for regional development. We argue that assessments of the impacts of market reform on regional inequality are scale- and time-specific. In the next section we

92

Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

examine the capacities for regional development coordination and uneven levels of social infrastructure, including entrepreneurial skills. We show that uneven development since doi moi in Vietnam has created diverse opportunities among regions and provinces. We then review the trends of growing disparities at different scales despite significant poverty reduction over the past decade-and-a-half. Finally, we discuss how the regional economies around Vietnam are reflected in and shaped by inter-regional movements of population. We examine how particular aspects of Vietnam’s development trajectory — decollectivization, decentralization, and marketization — are shaping patterns of spatial mobility, rural-urban, ethnic, and upland-lowland differences.

Regional Divisions and Questions of Scale The phenomenon of regional inequality has been a growing concern for policy-makers and scholars. But one of the reasons why there is often no consensus over the trends in regional inequality is because of the way the phenomenon is measured. The term “region” or “zone” is used rather vaguely in many cases. Leaving aside the notion of a meta-region (at a supra-national scale), region commonly denotes an intermediary level situated somewhere between the national and provincial scales. As Le Ba Thao (1997) explained, regions can be classified based on different scales or characteristics (for example, rural versus urban, developed versus less developed, coastal versus inland, north-central-south, or central core regions versus others). Areas classified within a single region may share common physical, socio-economic, or historical conditions. The Vietnamese government recently revised its former classification of seven economic and ecological regions into eight: northwest, northeast, Red River delta, north central coast, south central coast, central highlands, southeast, and Mekong delta (see Map 3.1). Such administrative divisions have changed over time. This division into seven versus eight regions may be less crucial in practice since these regions are merely units of statistical analysis, not administrative units for planning. Neither are they economically unified and coherent. The Red River delta, to take just one example, has huge variability including Hanoi, the political capital, and a much poorer rural hinterland (see Map 3.2). The choice of scale can have a major impact on the analysis of apparent disparities. Until recently, analyses of regional inequality have

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

MAP 3.1 Economic Regional Zoning of Vietnam

93

94

MAP 3.2 Poverty Map of Vietnam Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

Source: Poverty Mapping and Market Access in Vietnam. CD-ROM, 2003. (Courtesy of International Food Policy Research Institute and Institute of Development Studies)

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

95

paid more attention to broad disparities between macro-regions — southern, central, and northern core regions; the seven main economic regions; and rural versus urban — than to finer-tuned differences in intra-regional differentiation (for example, inter-and intra-provincial differences). At one scale of analysis, it could be argued that the gap between the southern region (spearheaded by Ho Chi Minh City) and the central region (led by Da Nang) is diminishing. Whereas in 1990 Da Nang and Binh Duong could not be compared with Ho Chi Minh City, now the former cities are developing at a rapid pace and will soon be strong competitors. On the other hand, time frames can also change the picture. The argument that the gap between regions was reduced following market reforms could be challenged by taking the example of Dak Lak province’s capital of Banmethuot. This city was wealthy some years ago when the price of coffee was very high, as reflected in the many large new houses built there. However, after a 9.0 per cent rate of annual growth in incomes in the central highlands in 1996–99, incomes in the region fell by 10.4 per cent thereafter when the price of coffee fell (GSO 2002). The determination of regional divisions can affect the development of regions, such as qualifying for certain kinds of subsidies or university entrance quotas if a locality falls within a broader area that is poor or mountainous. Lam Dong province is a case in point. In terms of the province’s socio-cultural characteristics, such as ethnicity, it could be placed in the central highlands (as it was for many years). However, economically, the province, and particularly the city of Dalat, is much more closely connected to the southeast region (it has recently been reclassified to reflect this). In the process of national construction and development, from at least the seventeenth century until the present, each dynasty divided the territory of Vietnam into units of different levels for the convenience of management and national defence. After 1975 there was an important reform of the administrative system to reduce the intermediary levels of management between the centre and localities. Other than the military zone, the administrative zones were abandoned. In the north, beginning in 1964, a number of small provinces were merged to form larger provinces. Each province in the delta typically had one million inhabitants and each mountainous province had 300,000. This policy adopted in the north was later extended to the south. By 1989 the country had been rearranged from more than 60 provinces to just 40 administrative units

96

Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

(three cities, 36 provinces, and one special zone). Through the 1990s, readjustments were introduced based on historical boundaries. By 2003 Vietnam had 61 provinces, including four cities administered under the central government. In the period of central planning, division into provinces based on population alone soon exposed difficulties such as huge land areas, often with a quite dispersed population. In the process of combining two or three provinces together, only one provincial capital city would receive funding from the central government, so other former provincial capitals would become disadvantaged and so developed more slowly.2 In Dong Thap province, Sa Dec was originally selected to house the provincial capital, but it was recently moved to Cao Lanh due to the limited land available and development potential in Sa Dec. For Vietnamese, people who originate from the same province are dong huong (sharing a common homeland). Even today, there are many associations of dong huong. They are particularly important for those who have moved away from their birthplace. Thus, when several provinces were amalgamated into one, such as Binh Tri Thien (from Quang Binh, Quang Tri, and Thua Thien, including Hue), people from the three former provinces continued to see themselves as quite distinct. In this way, regionally grounded psychology or identity, often manifesting as regionalism, can be a barrier (or an asset) to working together. In some cases, incompatible psychological factors between former provinces impeded the development of the newly amalgamated areas (Le Ba Thao 1997). Taylor (1998, pp. 950–51) relays an example of this from four provinces of central Vietnam, reflected in the expression Quang Nam hay cau, Quang Nhai hay lo, Binh Dinh hay co, Thua Thien nich het (Quang Nam knows how to argue, Quang Nhai knows how to worry, Binh Dinh knows how to fight, Thua Thien gobbles everything up).3

Territorial Management and Regional Competition The ability to cope and adapt in the new economic environment in Vietnam varies between social groups and across regions. Describing rural Bulgaria, Staddon (1999, p. 205) observes that a new politics of geographic scale is emerging, with localities struggling to shore up their positions within restructured national production systems, but also desperately seeking to make direct links with foreign concerns in order to further bolster their bargaining power.

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

97

Among regions that are currently poor, it is useful to identify those that have good potential for rapid development. In the past, some regions did not prosper economically due to reasons such as war-time security: being located in a boundary area or used as a military base. Yet with the appropriate policies, local initiative, and administrative capacity, their development could be quite rapidly boosted. This has indeed happened, particularly in the core central region, which has typically been less developed than the north and south. Binh Duong and Da Nang, for example, have been more successful in recent years than Dong Nai in attracting foreign investment. Similarly, Hai Duong has done better than the port city of Hai Phong (Dapice 2003). These positive outcomes in economic growth reflect effective policy and management by local authorities and mobilization of social capital, as well as land availability and cost relative to proximity to services, transport, and skilled labour. This can be contrasted with provinces such as Thai Nguyen which, under the former socialist industrialization strategy, were poles of development for heavy industry. Through economic restructuring, some such regions have suffered a decline in economic significance as other areas excel in light industry and services (Revilla 1999). Quang Ninh and Vinh Phu, on the other hand, have recovered and are enjoying more rapid growth in the current period. With the doi moi reforms, competition for resources has been intensified within and between regions as well as between the centre and localities. Reflecting centre-local relations, one channel through which local authorities lever funds independently is through illegal tax collection and intra- and inter-provincial “customs” or tolls (Beresford and McFarlane 1995, p. 63). Such initiatives reduce the central government’s capacity to influence regional economic developments and can impede national market integration. Inter-provincially, provinces operate independently from, and in some cases compete with, one another. When a relatively rich province is neighbouring one or more relatively poor provinces, several outcomes can be expected: the richer province may have a favourable (or trickle-down) impact on the poorer provinces such as Long An or Binh Duong; the poor province may be outshone and drained by a more dynamic neighbour such as Tien Giang, or it may depend on assistance from the central government. The latter phenomena has tended to occur in the coastal region of central Vietnam, whereas territorial competition is very real in the southeast region in recent years

98

Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

and provinces have shown good potential for development (Le Ba Thao 1997). To alleviate competition for the same resources, a regional development approach must capitalize on the endogenous development potential of specific regions, avoiding intensive agricultural or industrial activities in areas that cannot reasonably support them (for example, in the northwest). In addition to the eight economic regions mentioned earlier (which originated from regional agricultural divisions) a separate regional classification of three core economic regions — north, south, and central — was introduced in Vietnam in the late 1980s (Ngo Doan Vinh 1998). This classification was initially used by the Ministry of Construction for urban planning strategies and was later adopted by the Prime Minister. Currently there is a debate over models for regional development management and over the most appropriate organizational structure and function — administration versus consultancy — for core regions. Provinces and cities in core regions usually enjoy advantageous geographic positions, natural and human resources, and favourable policies for decentralization (that is, greater autonomy) and infrastructure development. However, the three regions still lack a well-established organizational structure and are not integrated in terms of infrastructure and services. In Vietnam, the constitution and laws concerning regional management have not yet been developed, and only deal with management at the provincial and district level. The major regions of Vietnam therefore have no legal character or organizational structure. One proposal on the table is to establish regional management committees involving People’s Committees of provinces, cities, and representatives of the Prime Minister to collaborate in formulating regional development strategies. However, concrete decisions on this have yet to materialize. To date there have only been some government institutions tasked to carry out regional development research and consultancy. While there has been some long-term planning, five-year and annual plans are lacking. In practice, this is not easy given the extent of regional competition. Regional networks and regional institutions need to engage all provinces and cities to dialogue, think, and act collectively for a regional development strategy. Such a strategy would include regional planning, information exchange, learning experience, and collaboration through sister cities. Unfortunately, traditional vertical relationships are quite strong in Vietnam, and horizontal relationships are not easy to develop.

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

99

Perhaps these horizontal relationships could be institutionalized along the lines of the Association of Provincial Cities. Entrepreneurial Capacities The uneven distribution of income in Vietnam is evident geographically as well as by occupation. In the early years of Vietnam’s reforms, rural incomes were mainly agriculture-based, and inequality did not grow quickly. As in China (cf. Zhang 2001), prices for agricultural produce have risen since the 1980s but the net income does not compare with the income opportunities to be had from off-farm activities. Although more limited than in China, rural non-agricultural activity is growing rapidly in Vietnam, and appears to be a key factor in rural social differentiation. In 1998, 79 per cent of the poor lived in agricultural households. To be effective, poverty reduction programmes must address the concentration of poverty among such households (Glewwe et al. 2000). Income from rural enterprises is distributed unevenly across different regions. Variations between northern and southern Vietnam, and finerscale regional differences, reveal different degrees of success in entrepreneurial skills and forging economic networks. The entrepreneurial environment in Vietnam, which impacts directly and indirectly on rural development, is shaped by a combination of natural resource endowments and socio-economic factors. The procedures for borrowing and the ability to access credit from banks or through informal channels can vary from one province to other. 4 The average capital of entrepreneurial households also depends on the economic development of the locality. For example, in provinces such as Hue, Da Nang, and Tien Giang, more than half of production units have capital investment of less than one million Vietnamese dong. In other provinces with a tradition of handicrafts, such as Ha Tay, Bac Ninh, and Binh Duong, there is more investment capital. In Bac Ninh and Binh Duong, 87 per cent of production units have ten to 100 million dong in investment capital. In Ha Tay, 23 per cent of production units have investment capital of 100 million to one billion dong, nine per cent have between one and five billion dong, and six per cent have over five billion. In terms of capital from bank loans, Da Nang is the province with the smallest number of production units receiving bank loans (two of 25), while in Tien Giang more than half of all units borrow from banks (Chu Tien Quang 2003, p. 121).

100

Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

Equipment is a further constraint for rural industry. Among the six provinces included in Chu Tien Quang’s survey, Bac Ninh, Ha Tay, and Binh Duong have relatively high-tech equipment. For example, in the textile village of La Phu, Ha Tay province, most businesses and households with large amounts of capital are equipped with automatic and semi-automatic textile machines as well as cars. Meanwhile, in Thua Thien Hue, Da Nang, and Tien Giang, rural industrialists depend mainly on manual production, and the standard of equipment is poor, perpetuating low productivity, higher costs, and a lack of variety in product design. Production units in handicraft villages in central Vietnam often have a small area for production. The proportion of production units with less than 100 square metres of land (mat bang) for their operation was 87 per cent in Hue and 75 per cent in Da Nang (Chu Tien Quang 2003). In provinces with many handicraft villages known for producing highquality products, such as Ha Tay, Bac Ninh, and Binh Duong, many production units want to expand their production. They often resort to using space in the kitchen and floor of their homes for production. This problem cannot be solved at the level of the commune. The fact that commune-level People’s Committees have no reserve land fund to lease out is a major constraint to expanding the scale of production. If production units want land for small-scale industry such as handicrafts, they must acquire land from agricultural households and seek permission to take the land out of cultivation. This problem can lead to peasant landlessness, which is especially disruptive if appropriated from families with limited options for off-farm investment or employment. Addressing the demand for space for small-scale industry requires central government intervention — a lengthy process. Lack of land for production is a key problem for rural entrepreneurs, and is particularly acute in areas of the Red River delta.5 The educational level of entrepreneurs in rural areas is still limited. A survey conducted by the Central Institute for Economic Management on Vietnam’s entrepreneurial environment revealed that more than 60 per cent of entrepreuneurs have only primary school education. In Tien Giang, there were no entrepreneurial household heads with a college or university education. The proportion of entrepreneurs with management training was low in most surveyed provinces: Da Nang (4 per cent), Hue (4 per cent), Binh Duong (8 per cent), Ha Tay (21 per cent), and Tien

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

101

Giang (21 per cent) (Chu Tien Quang 2003, p. 135). These figures reflect a problem for local governments concerned about the development of non-agricultural activities in their locality. Access to business services is another impediment to expanding production in many regions of the country. In Da Nang, Thua Thien Hue, and Tien Giang, about half of all entrepreneurs had access to a telephone, compared with Bac Ninh (24 per cent), Ha Tay (14 per cent), and Binh Duong (four per cent). The number of entrepreneurs with e-mail is also low: Da Nang (20 per cent), Ha Tay (11 per cent), and Binh Duong (four per cent). Only six per cent of entrepreneurs in Ha Tay have websites (Chu Tien Quang 2003). Moreover, business services tend to be concentrated in provincial capitals. The above factors shaping low entrepreneurial capacity are compounded in some areas by isolation and lack of infrastructure to facilitate access to key market centres in the country. The system of rural infrastructure in Vietnam has been improving, especially electricity, roads, schools, and health centres (known in Vietnamese as dien, duong, truong, tram). However, the proportion of communes with electricity is still lagging behind in parts of the northwest and central highlands, as shown in Table 3.1. This rate especially low in the northwestern provinces of Lai Chau (64 per cent), Ha Giang (42 per cent), Son La (35 per cent), Lao Cai (35 per cent). The cost of electricity in rural areas is still higher than in urban areas. Many communes still have no road accessible to cars to reach the commune centre. In the Mekong province of Ca Mau, 70 per cent of communes lack such a road, although they are connected by waterways and boat services. In Vinh Long the figure is 37 per cent, in TABLE 3.1 Percentage of Communes with Electricity in Selected Regions Region Northwest Northeast Red River delta Central highlands Mekong delta Source: GSO (2003b).

Percentage 63 82 100 75 99

102

Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

Soc Trang 33 per cent, in Bac Lieu 34 per cent, and in Lai Chau, where there are no alternative mechanized or bulk transport options, 23 per cent (GSO 2003b). The lack of car access in these areas perpetuates their marginalization and has impeded their integration in the nation’s economic life.

Regional Disadvantage as a Product of Political and Social Capital Entrepreneurial capacities aside, regional development outcomes can often be affected by national policies that prioritize one site or region over another. As one example, a chemical industrial area was to be established in the core central region (vung kinh te dong luc mien Trung), which includes the provinces and cities of Da Nang, Thua Thien-Hue, Quang Nam, and Quang Ngai. Within this region, each of the potential sites for selection — Dung Quat, Van Phong, Long Son, Hon La, and Nghi Son — had different advantages and disadvantages. The initial assessment of these places depended mainly on the costs of transporting materials and products to and from the factories. Long Son (in the southern part of the region) was advantageous in terms of transportation cost: the difference in profit between Long Son’s position and Dung Quat is US$20 million per year (Ministry of Construction 1998). But on the basis of socio-economic and national security criteria, the central government eventually identified Dung Quat as the most appropriate site for the oil refinery. In addition, the economic area of Chu Lai was opened with favourable regulations and tax breaks to facilitate its integration in the international economy. Independent of the market reforms, a much broader and ongoing dimension of national policy that shapes regional “disadvantage” or social exclusion is the privileging of north over south. This has been a source of tension since the reunification of the country in 1975. Northerners monopolize political power and those who have come to be known as “the ’75 generation” continue to hold many positions in government and public institutions in the south. Whether it be through merit or social networks, opportunities to travel and study abroad are also given predominantly to people from the north. Through the geographically uneven processes of restructuring in postsocialist countries, some sub-regions have suffered a process of

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

103

peripheralization. This is often a product of the removal of former welfare state regional policy instruments that mitigated marginality and economic imbalances between geographical areas. This phenomenon is a manifestation of the geographical implications of ideological changes (Tykkylainen 1998). In Vietnam, the economic reforms have been particularly challenging for parts of the north more accustomed to longterm government support. An alternative form of support, both in the past and current period, comes from community-based social safety nets. Such forms of informal social protection compensate for limited coverage of government programmes, providing protection for those who live in poverty or fall upon hard times. Community-based social safety nets exhibit a spatial dimension. The level of landlessness resulting from distress sales suggests that these informal supports are particularly welldeveloped in the north (Smith 1997), whereas the Mekong delta has seen many more poor farmers forced to sell their land when they have no other social or physical capital to draw from.

Poverty Reduction with Growing Social and Regional Differentiation According to internationally comparable indicators, the rate of poverty in Vietnam dropped from 58 per cent in 1993, to 37 per cent in 1998, to 29 per cent in 2002. But what do these favourable figures on reductions in absolute poverty tell us about relative poverty, or the gap between the rich and the poor? Vietnam’s economic growth since doi moi has been on the whole fairly pro-poor, although it is becoming less inclusive. In relation to the rates of growth, the pace of poverty reduction in the early 1990s has not kept pace as quickly in more recent years. Poverty reduction in the earlier period has been largely attributed to land allocation, which increased production incentives. Since the mid-1990s, the growth of private sector employment opportunities and agricultural exports have played a bigger part (Joint Donor Report 2003). Compared with five years previously, inequality within each of the seven economic regions used in the Living Standards Survey classification increased slightly. The greatest increase was found in the north central region. Adequate longitudinal data are not available to determine if the trend of exacerbation of inter-regional differentiation is also taking place in Vietnam, although its regions have long been differentiated in resource

104

Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

endowments and economic conditions. Map 3.2 and Tables 3.2 and 3.3 reveal a significant degree of inter-regional differentiation and uneven distribution of the poor in Vietnam. Despite the large absolute numbers of poor households in the two delta regions, the geography of the poor is changing, with more severe poverty in less dense areas (Joint Donor Report 2003). As well as richer natural resource endowments in the land per capita ratios, a greater number of non-farm income-generation opportunities exist in southern Vietnam where people enjoy more diversified livelihoods. The market reforms, particularly privatization, changes in property rights, and access to credit, have increased non-agricultural income opportunities, particularly in aquaculture and wage and remittance (Adger 1999). Of the seven regions, the southeast region, including Ho Chi Minh City, comprised 42 per cent of the population in the top expenditure quintile. Given that the equivalent figure for five years earlier had been just 27 per cent, this suggests a growing concentration of wealth in this region, and underscores the need to consider uneven income distribution. In terms of the poverty transition and upward mobility, the least successful region was the northern uplands, where 47 per cent of the households remained poor between 1993 and 1998. The Red River delta had the most impressive rate of poverty reduction. A striking 35 per cent of this region’s population escaped poverty between 1993 and 1998 (Glewwe et al. 2000). While some analysts point to growing landlessness, concentration of land, and disparity in incomes within rural areas and between rural and urban areas, Ravallion and van de Walle (2003, p. 4) argue that “there is little sign of sharply rising income or consumption inequality”. To the contrary, they report: Analyses of household survey data for 1992/93 and 1997/98 indicate a significant drop in income inequality in the south (from a Gini of 0.46 to 0.42), though there was a slight increase in the north (from 0.37 to 0.39) and a slight increase in the consumption inequality in both north and south.

However, this argument seems to be inconsistent with other evidence, and with more recent trends since the late 1990s. Some analysts suggest that the Vietnam Living Standards Survey indicates greater social inequality within than between regions (Dollar and Glewwe 1998). Comparing the incomes of the richest and poorest

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

105

TABLE 3.2 Poverty Rate by Region, 1993, 1998, and 2002 (Percentage of households living in poverty) 1993

1998

2002

Total

Urban

Rural

Total

Urban

Rural

Total

Vietnam

58.1

25.0

66.3

37.4

11.5

44.1

28.9

North mountains Northeast Northwest

78.6

46.2

84.2

59.6

10.3

65.8

43.9 38.4 68.0

Red River delta North central coast South central coast Central highlands Southeast Mekong delta

62.9 74.5 49.5 69.9 32.7 47.1

13.8 49.6 27.8 — 16.2 25.03

71.6 76.9 59.1 69.9 45.8 51.9

28.5 48.1 34.0 48.3 11.1 39.0

4.8 12.5 17.4 — 5.7 19.7

33.3 51.7 39.9 48.3 14.3 42.9

22.4 43.9 25.2 51.8 10.6 23.4

Source: GSO (2003a).

TABLE 3.3 Distribution of the Poor by Region, 2002 (Percentage of households living in poverty) The Poor

Population

1993

1998

2002

2002

100

100

100

100

North mountains Northeast Northwest

23 19 4

25 20 6

22 16 7

15 12 3

Red River delta North central coast South central coast Central highlands Southeast Mekong delta

24 16 5 3 11 17

18 18 8 5 5 21

17 20 7 10 5 17

22 13 8 6 15 21

Vietnam

Source: GSO (2003a).

106

Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

decile (10 per cent) of households, the gap in 2001–2002 was 12.5 times, compared with 12 times in 1999 and only 10.6 times in 1996. The gap is even greater when comparing the incomes of the richest and poorest five per cent of households. The richest five per cent of households earned 19.8 times as much as the poorest five per cent. This figure compares to 17.1 times in 1999 and 15.1 times in 1996. The regional variations of these income gaps are shown in Table 3.4. Table 3.5 shows the slight increase in the Gini coefficient of income inequality across TABLE 3.4 Income Gap between the Richest and Poorest Ten and Five Per Cent of the Population in Selected Regions of Vietnam, 2001–2002

Region

Gap between Richest and Poorest 10%

Gap between Richest and Poorest 5%

Vietnam

12.5

19.8

Southeast Red River delta Central highlands Mekong delta

14.4 11.2 10.8 10.9

24.6 17.8 16.2 17.3

Source: Nguyen Manh Hung (2003).

TABLE 3.5 Gini Coefficient of Income Inequality by Region, 1993, 1998, and 2002 (Higher figures indicate greater inequality) Region

1993

1998

2002

Vietnam Urban Rural

0.34 0.35 0.28

0.35 0.34 0.27

0.37 0.35 0.28

North mountains Red River delta North central coast South central coast Central highlands Southeast Mekong delta

0.25 0.32 0.25 0.36 0.31 0.36 0.33

0.26 0.32 0.29 0.33 0.31 0.36 0.30

0.34 0.36 0.30 0.33 0.36 0.38 0.30

Source: GSO (2003a).

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

107

Vietnam over the past five years. The national figure in 2002 was 0.37, but disaggregated regionally it ranged from 0.30 (low inequality) in the northern central and Mekong delta regions to 0.36 in the Red River delta (including Hanoi) and 0.38 in the southeast (including Ho Chi Minh City) (GSO 2003a). Rural Vietnam’s growing income inequality has been occurring despite a fairly limited degree of land concentration to date.6 These disparities seem to be more attributable to increases in non-agricultural income than to accumulation of land. Having said this, there is a clear trend of agricultural land concentration in some regions of Vietnam (see Table 3.6). This has also been documented in the second general survey on rural areas, agriculture, and aquaculture (GSO 2003b). While agricultural extension programmes promote models of larger-scale farming (and associated land consolidation), other farmers are squeezed out of production. In 2002, 18.9 per cent of rural households were landless, which was about twice as many as five years earlier. Landless agricultural households7 were particularly concentrated in the southeast and Mekong delta, where they comprised 89 per cent of the total number (GSO 2003b). More striking still is that landlessness among the poorest quintile grew from 26 to 39 per cent between 1998 and 2002 (Joint Donor Report 2003, p. 39). The main income source of these households is wage labour in agricultural production. Among agricultural households that were not landless in 2001, the vast majority (64 per cent) had less than half a hectare of land, while 31 per cent had half a hectare or more of agricultural land. Compared with 1994, the largest change was a five per cent decrease in households having 0.2 to 0.5 hectares (GSO 2003b). These households appear to have shifted both downward, to below 0.2 hectares or becoming landless altogether, or upward, particularly to the one-to-three hectare group of households, which grew by 2.5 per cent over the same period (see Table 3.7). The survey revealed an increase in the number of households with landholdings of over one hectare, and a concurrent decrease in the number of households having less than one hectare. As shown in Table 3.8, this phenomenon has been particularly marked in the southeast region, where there is an abundance of industrial and service opportunities, and in the central highlands, where such opportunities do not exist. This divergence in experiences indicates that although land loss is often an indicator of economic insecurity, this may not always be the case.

11 14 17 23 38

8.2 9.2 18.9

1 2 6 12 25

2.0 0.5 4.8

North Mountain

7 5 11 15 43

3.2 3.3 13.9

Red River Delta

8 8 13 22 25

3.8 8.0 12.2

North Central Coast

9 18 15 27 45

10.7 2.0 19.6

South Central Coast

Source: Joint Donor Report 2003 (constructed using data from the Vietnam Living Standards Surveys).

Poorest Near poorest Middle Near richest Richest

Quintile (2002)

1993 1998 2002

Vietnam

TABLE 3.6 Landlessness among Rural Households (Percentages)

3 3 5 7 11

3.9 2.6 4.3

Central Highlands

31 40 35 41 59

21.3 23.5 43.0

Southeast

39 30 26 25 28

16.9 21.3 28.9

Mekong Delta

108 Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

109

TABLE 3.7 Proportion of Agricultural Households in Vietnam by Size of Agricultural Landholding, 1994 and 2001 Size of Household Landholding Landless <0.2 ha 0.2 to <0.5 ha 0.5 to <1 ha 1 to <3 ha 3 to <5 ha 5 to <10 ha >10 ha

+/– Change, 1994–2001

1994

2001

1.15

4.20

3.00

26.90 44.0 16.2 10.5 1.0 0.2 0.02

25.1 39.2 16.4 13.1 1.6 0.4 0.05

–1.80 –4.8 0.2 2.5 0.6 0.2 0.03

Source: GSO (2003b).

TABLE 3.8 Proportion of Households in the Southeast Region and Tay Nguyen with Landholdings of Less than One Hectare, 1994 and 2001 (Percentages) Region

1994

2001

% Change

Southeast Central highlands

69.2 74.9

52.5 54.2

–16.7 –20.7

Source: GSO (2003b).

Ethnic and Upland-Lowland Disparities An important parallel to regional economic differentiation is differentiation based on ethnicity, as well as upland-lowland distinctions (Jamieson, Le Trong Cuc, and Rambo 1998). Ethnicity has emerged as a key axis of social differentiation in Vietnam, historically and especially today. While the 53 ethnic minority groups comprise 14 per cent of the population of Vietnam, they make up a disproportionate 29 per cent of the poor (Poverty Task Force 2002), up from 19 per cent in 1992–93. While poverty has fallen amongst ethnic minority populations in the past decade-and-a-half, it has occurred much more slowly than for the Viet (or Kinh) majority or the Chinese. Thus, in relative terms the proportion of the nation’s poor people that are ethnic minorities is growing.

110

Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

Besides the Chinese (particularly numerous in Ho Chi Minh City), the Khmer (in the Mekong delta), and the Cham (in the south central coastal areas), most ethnic minorities reside in the northern uplands and central highlands. The incidence of poverty among the majority Viet (or Kinh) population between 1992/93 and 1997/98 dropped from 55 to 32 per cent and among the Chinese from 11 to 8 per cent. However, of all the other ethnic minority populations combined, 75 per cent continued to live in poverty in 1997/98, down from 86 per cent five years earlier (Glewwe et al. 2000). In 1998, 91 per cent of the central highland’s minority population lived in poverty, as did 73 per cent of the minorities of the northern uplands, and 57 per cent of Khmer people (Poverty Task Force 2002). The upland areas of Vietnam, occupied overwhelmingly by ethnic minorities, have long been considered a zone for “frontier development” and became the target of Kinh in-migration in recent decades. Khong Dien (1995) noted that the Kinh population in the nine northern upland provinces in 1960 was just 670,000, but by 1989 it had jumped fivefold to 3,215,000. This was particularly accelerated by the policy of designating New Economic Zones in what were considered “empty”, marginal, or frontier territories in the 1960s and 1970s. When the potential for resource exploitation in the northern uplands appeared to be exhausted, the New Economic Zone policy shifted in the 1980s and 1990s to promote officially sponsored migration to the central highlands. Many others migrated spontaneously (Hardy 2003). The New Economic Zone programme paralleled the establishment of state forest enterprises in many upland areas — often on lands that had formerly belonged to ethnic minority peoples. When the country began to overcome the economic crisis of the 1970s and 1980s, the state intended to intensify its efforts to address uneven development between different regions of the country, particularly between mountainous and lowland areas. Although financial conditions were still poor, the state initiated a programme to better the living conditions of the population of the mountain regions. This spatial redeployment of productive capacity and fiscal transfers to less developed regions included supplying food at the same prices as in the lowlands (that is, subsidizing the cost of transportation). In addition, iodized salt (to combat goitre), medicines, medical equipment, and teaching books were provided free of charge. Measures have also been taken to develop

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

111

transport, communications, and access to information in these areas. Ethnic minorities have quotas to ensure access to higher education,8 and there are special (boarding) schools for selected ethnic minority children in some remote areas. The Committee of Ethnic Minorities and Mountainous Regions facilitate their representation in the state administration. State policy to some extent ensures the right of ethnic minorities to use their languages, although it is questionable to what extent these policies are effectively implemented. In some ways, the policies of redistribution of resources between regions were better on paper than in reality. Many subsidies earmarked for ethnic minorities through the Committee of Ethnic Minorities and Mountainous Regions promoted recipients to be passive, rather than taking responsibility and ownership through the development process. Corruption also resulted through using false lists of recipients. In interpreting the dynamics of regional differentiation, one might distinguish between policies based on subsidies and supports for poor regions (for example, six subsidized goods for the mountainous regions, or university entrance quotas policies) and policies for core economic regions based on creating an enabling environment for investment and economic development. Many areas of high ethnic minority populations appear to have been cast into the former category (albeit with such supports gradually drying up), with limited opportunities to move into the latter.

Rural-Urban Gaps With market reforms under way since the 1980s, the Vietnamese countryside has a new face, though not as prosperous as that of urban areas. Mountainous regions still face difficulties in linking into markets, although sometimes inaccessibility to national markets is balanced by higher rates of cross-border trade. The abundance of water in the Mekong delta has yielded high fruit, rice, and aquaculture dividends, although the region still lacks clean water. Rural areas are home to about 75 per cent of the population and 90 per cent of the country’s poor. With agriculture being the primary occupation in rural areas, there are close links between poverty, agriculture, and the rural household economy. In contrast to Eastern European countries, it is not the laid-off state sector workers but (non-diversified) farming households that tend

112

Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

to be the most poor and vulnerable in Vietnam. Rural differentiation appears to be more accelerated in China than in Vietnam, particularly when comparing China to Vietnam’s northern region (Luong and Unger 1999). One key reason for this is the low level of rural industrialization in Vietnam. Another factor is the policy of the Chinese government requiring poor households to provide a requisition of cheap grain to the state, which constitutes a de facto regressive tax from which the more prosperous households are exempt. Such a policy weighs down poor households, impeding them from qualifying for credit or from gaining sufficient surplus to afford chemical fertilizers to improve their grain output. Even more striking than the growing differentiation within rural areas are rural-urban disparities. Rural-urban disparities have emerged as a significant axis of differentiation, and the differences are growing. Average incomes in Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City are five to seven times higher than that of a farm labourer (UNDP 1998). In addition to the income differences, surplus labour in agriculture has been an important push factor in rural-urban migration (Nguyen Manh Hung 2003). Cities attract about a million new migrants each year (Joint Donor Report 2003). Compared with the early 1990s, the incomes of urban households appeared to grow more rapidly in the latter part of the decade and early twenty-first century. In 1993, among households in the top 20 per cent in terms of overall expenditures, 52 per cent were from urban areas, while the remainder lived in rural areas. By 1998 the proportion was 69 per cent from urban areas compared with only one-third rural (Glewwe et al. 2000).9 Income inequality is more glaring within urban areas than within rural areas: the Gini coefficient of income inequality in the latest Vietnam Living Standards Survey was 0.28 in rural areas compared with 0.35 in urban areas (GSO 2003a). Rural-urban migration can be an important strategy for increasing incomes, temporarily or permanently. The Vietnam Living Standards Survey data revealed a significant degree of mobility between quintile groups, suggesting that poverty can often be transient. Only about 40 per cent of households from the panel survey remained in the same quintile over the five-year period, while the majority moved up or down around them (Glewwe et al. 2000). The Living Standards Surveys also identify a significant number households, labelled as “shooting stars” and “sinking stones”, that jumped or fell by two quintile groups in overall income levels.

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

113

Spatial Mobility The globalization of Vietnam’s economy and its export orientation adopted since the late 1980s have created different demands on the labour force, including demand to move between regions and provinces. These macroeconomic factors, together with other institutional changes, have had consequences for population mobility and contributed to interregional differentials in levels of economic development. Globalization and marketization have redirected flows of resources, information, and people. Remittances from overseas Vietnamese and guest workers in foreign countries10 to their relatives in Vietnam have provided an influx of capital to support subsistence costs as well as the construction of new homes and businesses. These funds flow disproportionately to the southern part of the country, and to some Catholic communities of the Red River delta. Since 1999 the amount of foreign currency sent to Vietnam has continuously increased, by an average of 20 per cent per year. In 2003 about US$2.7 billion was remitted via official means and an estimated US$1.5 billion through labour export was sent to Vietnam. Foreign currency sent to Ho Chi Minh City alone totalled about US$1.7 billion (Nguoi Lao Dong, 2 January 2004). Local initiatives, resources, and networks are becoming increasingly important in Vietnam’s market economy. Individuals and local governments alike are expected to become more entrepreneurial and to create new comparative advantages to stimulate local economic growth.11 The Viet Kieu population abroad is an important source not only of capital, but of knowledge and skills, for economic development. In contrast to past policies, the Vietnamese government since doi moi has made greater efforts to encourage and support Vietnamese and Viet Hoa entrepreneurs. Ho Chi Minh City has been a hub for such developments. The market system has a longer history here and was never completely suppressed during the period of socialist reorganization after reunification (Taylor 2001). One element of social mobility is spatial mobility, in response to changes in the labour market. Spatial mobility, through migration of more educated and skilled individuals to core areas, can constitute a potential brain drain depleting marginal areas of human capital resources. On the other hand, remittances from core to marginal areas are essential to the income of many rural households. The 1993 Vietnam Living Standards Survey found that 23 per cent of households received

114

Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

remittances (Dang Nguyen Anh et al. 2003, p. 9). Migration of some individuals to other parts of the country stimulates business networks, exchange of information and experience, and long-distance social support structures (for example, based on dong huong or common homeland ties). Social networks in marginal areas can thus offer important insights on emerging patterns of intra- and inter-regional differentiation. The past two decades have seen massive inter-regional migration, influenced by differential labour costs and availability of land and employment. Between 1994 and 1999, 2.9 per cent of Vietnam’s population of 69 million moved to a new province, up from 2 per cent a decade earlier (Dang Nguyen Anh et al. 2003) (see Table 3.9). Two-thirds of the recent migrants moved to another region of the country, not just another province. Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are the destination of large numbers of such migrants. Between the 1990–95 and 1995–2000 periods, Hanoi’s annual average rate of increase in population dropped from 2.8 to 2.4 per cent. On the other hand, over the same period, Ho Chi Minh City’s population growth rate increased slightly, from 2.3 to 2.4 per cent. This contrasts with the decade-and-a-half following the reunification of the north and the south in which government policy sought to reduce urban concentrations in the south. Vung Tau-Baria continues to be a pole of rapid population growth, growing by three per cent per year through the early and late 1990s (Nguyen Van Chinh et al. 2002). Other provinces near Ho Chi Minh City, including Binh Duong and Dong Nai, maintain their attractiveness with an annual population growth rate of 2.6 per cent due to foreign direct investment in the area. Population growth of export-processing zone districts of Binh Duong have been dramatic. Migration is a two-sided equation. Areas that experienced a net loss of population through out-migration include the densely populated Red River delta and the impoverished north central coast. Of all provinces, Thanh Hoa was the source of the highest number of migrants. Overall, the Red River delta, north central coast, and Mekong delta had lower rates of population increase, slightly over one per cent annually — which is significantly lower than the national average of 1.5 per cent. These figures indicate a net outward movement of population in these regions, although they mask considerable in-bound migration to the Mekong delta from the central and northern provinces. Besides Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, Da Nang and Hai Phong have

131,575 25,244 63,591 111,474 248,741 921,603 488,927 242,280

Northeast

Northwest

North central coast

South central coast

Central highlands

Southeast Ho Chi Minh City

Mekong delta

Source: Population and Housing Census (1999).

257,166 156,344

Red River delta Hanoi

In-migrants

422,369

320,705 78,374

50,004

187,826

333,475

28,201

250,556

406,099 41,727

Out-migrants

–9.2

43.4 76.1

66.4

–11.5

–25.0

–1.6

–12.4

–10.0 41.1

Male

TABLE 3.9 Inter-regional Migration Rates, 1994–99

–13.0

51.0 86.6

63.1

–11.9

–28.9

–1.0

–9.6

–10.1 44.6

Female

Net Migration Rate (%)

–11.2

47.3 81.5

64.8

–11.7

–27.0

–1.3

–11.0

–10.1 42.9

All

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development 115

116

Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

also been selected by the central government as focal centres (“growth triangles”) for national development. However, the latter two cities have yet to prove themselves. Hai Phong’s population grew at annual rate of only one per cent — too low to be a key development node. Da Nang grew at 1.9 per cent, which was above the national average. The central highlands continues to be the region drawing the strongest number of immigrants from other parts of the country. Its average annual growth rate remains at 4.9 per cent. The northeast and northwest regions are poor areas, with a high concentration of ethnic minorities. Their low increase in population was probably due to the outward movement of population. The north central coast region recorded no apparent change (Nguyen Van Chinh et al. 2002). To date, Vietnam’s population has remained predominantly rural. Rural-rural migration accounted for about 1.6 million of the 4.35 million people who moved between 1994 and 1999 (Dang Nguyen Anh et al. 2003, p. 5). The factors shaping a gradual urbanization in the country have varied according to domestic development demands as well as external war-related factors. In the early 1960s, the movement of population to urban centres in northern Vietnam was spurred by the expansion of heavy industry as an economic development strategy of the socialist state. The disproportionate investment in industrial development meant that the agricultural sector lagged behind and produced significant out-migration, although spontaneous migration was restricted through the ho khau system of household registration (Hardy 2001). During the bombing of urban centres in the “American war”, key concentrations of population experienced de-urbanization. Other schemes of population relocation which also curbed the urbanization process were the establishment of new economic zones, in which people from densely populated delta areas were moved to agricultural frontier areas or forestry enterprises (Thrift and Forbes 1986). More recently, urbanization has been stimulated through the growth of regional cities such as Can Tho, Long Xuyen, Cau Mau in the Mekong delta, and the emergence of “strip urbanization” along major roads. In the current period of transformation, spatial mobility in Vietnam has been attributed to three causes (Anh Danh, Goldstein, and McNally 1997). The first factor is decollectivization, associated with productivity increases and labour surpluses. The 1993 Land Law which permitted land transfers accelerated landlessness at the same time as it boosted

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

117

incentives for off-farm market opportunities. Second, abandoning the system of subsidies and the associated strict household registration system (ho khau) meant that residence in urban areas and access to essential goods and services became possible for more of the non-urban population. Third, the expansion of the private sector facilitated interprovincial trade and transportation. Thus, the integration of population in remote areas into regional and national (and sometimes international) links has been shaped by both state intervention and demands of the market economy, which in turn have affected the differential development among regions.

Dynamics of Differentiation and Regional Disparities Regional inequality is intermixed with issues of ethnic conflict, migration, trade, resource flows, and foreign investment. It has important implications for economic growth, social and political stability, ethnic relations, and environmental degradation. How to address regional disparities has been a longstanding debate, in socialist policy-making and elsewhere, linked to issues of local autonomy, levels of central control in national planning and revenue collection, and inter-regional transfer of resources. Regional disparities can be the source of tensions and bargaining between central and local governments, and debates over plan and market, and the balance of domestic and international economic forces. The dynamics described in this chapter underscore the importance of understanding the social and regional aspects of Vietnam’s current transformation, and the potential for social exclusion that can result. The country’s structural adjustment away from the redistributive and egalitarian policy orientation of the past has had uneven effects, socially and spatially. In the past, various forms of “levelling” policies served to regulate and minimize regional disparities and class differences. Despite the relatively low level of economic development in Vietnam in global terms, the country has seen a growing imbalance in regional development patterns and rising social differentiation through the reform process set in motion in the 1980s. This has occurred despite a significant trend of poverty reduction since the early 1990s. These disparities have emerged to different extents both between and within provinces, between rural and urban and lowland and upland areas, and between agricultural and

118

Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

non-agricultural sectors. Furthermore, the experience of social differentiation varies by locality: an indicator such as land ownership has different meaning in a rural than an urban area. Variables also combine differently according to locality, with different outcomes (for example, high income in the Mekong delta despite low education). These characteristics have important implications for long-term investment and poverty reduction strategies. Writing about Bulgaria, Staddon (1999, p. 207) noted that “while the transition model of development contains a strong tendency towards peripheralization of localities outside the metropole, localities are finding innovative ways of forging useful links with other localities and of integrating themselves within new regional formations”. This observation may hold true to an extent for Vietnam. Effective management by local authorities has allowed some regions to pull ahead of others. At the same time, we have pointed out numerous obstacles to realizing successful regional networks. Moreover, competition for private and state sector resources — both between regions and between the centre and localities — is intense. Further research could usefully be directed to interpreting the character of doi moi era rural governance in Vietnam and the position and bargaining power of localities and regions within it.

NOTES * 1

2

The authors would like to thank Philip Taylor, Bjorn Surborg, Paul Parker, and Peter Hall for constructive comments on an earlier draft of this chapter. Still others posit an “inverted U” hypothesis of rising inequalities and dualism in the early stages of development, with regional convergence in more mature stages. The following is a list of some of the combined provinces (and the original two or three provinces which were amalgamated). The italicized word is the province selected to house the new provincial capital: Ha Tuyen (from Ha Giang and Tuyen Quang), Ha Son Binh (from Son La and Hoa Binh), Ha Nam Ninh (from Ha Nam, Nam Dinh, and Ninh Binh), Nghe Tinh (from Nghe An and Ha Tinh), Binh Tri Thien (from Quang Binh, Quang Tri and Thua Thien), Nghia Binh (from Quang Ngai and Binh Dinh), Phu Khanh (from Phu Yen and Khanh Hoa), Thuan Hai (from Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan), Can Tho (from Can Tho and Soc Trang), Cuu Long (from Vinh Long and Tra Vinh), Minh Hai (from Bac Lieu and Ca Mau), Dong Thap (from Cao Lanh and Sa Dec), Tien Giang (from My Tho and Kien Tuong), Kien Giang (from Rach Gia

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

3

4 5 6

7

8 9

10

11

119

and Ha Tien). The latter two provinces are still combined, while most of the rest have since been re-divided. On how Vietnamese north-south regional identities reflect power differences, see also Taylor (2001). For a historical perspective, see Ngo Vinh Long (1984). See Nguyen Van Suu’s chapter in this volume. The allocation of agricultural land through decollectivization appears to have been most equitable in the lowlands and in northern Vietnam. Parts of the south followed a process of restitution along the lines of pre-1975 ownership patterns, while some areas of the northern mountains inhabited by ethnic minorities developed their own local rules for allocation based on ancestral land claims (Scott 2001; Sadoulet et al. 2002). By definition, households not using agricultural land are mainly landless households whose members work as hired labours. In addition, there is a small number of households not in need of land, such as households specializing in livestock raising or agricultural services. See Vu Quoc Ngu’s chapter in this volume. Having said this, since many people classified as “rural” may actually be “urban” (either residents of towns or migrants to large cities), the rate of rural poverty among the overall population may be slightly exaggerated (Carrie Turk, personal communication, 31 October 2003). According to MOLISA statistics, in 2000 there were 118,000 Vietnamese labour migrants working in 40 countries (cited in Dang Nguyen Anh et al. 2003, p. 12). Accordingly, education has become a strong factor in social mobility. See Jee Young Kim’s chapter in this volume.

BIBLIOGRAPHY Adger, W. Neil. “Exploring Income Inequality in Rural, Coastal Viet Nam”. Journal of Development Studies 35, no. 5 (1999): 96–119. Anh Danh, Sydney Goldstein, and James McNally. “Internal Migration and Development in Vietnam”. Journal of Migration Research 31, no. 2 (1997): 312–37. Beresford, Melanie and Bruce McFarlane. “Regional Inequality and Regionalism in Vietnam and China”. Journal of Contemporary Asia 25, no. 1 (1995): 50–72. Chu Tien Quang. Moi truong kinh doanh o nong thon Vietnam: Thuc trang va giai phap [Entrepreneurial environment in rural Vietnam: current situation and solutions]. Hanoi: Central Institute for Economic Management and National Political Publishers, 2003. Dang Nguyen Anh, Cecilia Tacoli, and Hoang Xuan Thanh. “Migration in

120

Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

Vietnam: A Review of Information on Current Trends and Patterns, and Their Policy Implications”. Paper prepared for the Regional Conference on Migration, Development and Pro-Poor Policy Choices in Asia, Dhaka, Department for International Development, 2003. Dapice, David. “Vietnam’s Economy: Success Story or Weird Dualism? A SWOT Analysis”. http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/cbg/asia/research.htm. Accessed 30 September 2003. Dollar, David and Paul Glewwe. “Poverty and Inequality in the Early Reform Period”. In Household Welfare and Vietnam’s Transition, edited by David Dollar, Paul Glewwe, and Jennie Litvack, pp. 29–60. Washington, DC: World Bank, 1998. General Statistical Office (GSO). Vietnam Living Standards Survey 1992–3. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House, 1993. ———. Kinh Te Xa Hoi Viet Nam 2002 [Vietnam socio-economy of 2002]. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House, 2002. ———. Vietnam Living Standards Survey 2002–3. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House, 2003a. ———. Tom tat ket qua tong dieu tra Nong nghiep, nong thon va thuy san 2001 [Summary of results of a general survey on rural areas, agriculture, and aquaculture 2001]. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House, October 2003b. Glewwe, Paul, Michele Gragnolati, and Hassan Zaman. Who Gained from Vietnam’s Boom in the 1990s? Policy Research Working Paper 2275. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2000. Hardy, Andrew. Red Hills: Migrants and the State in the Highlands of Vietnam. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 2003. ———. “Rules and Resources: Negotiating the Household Registration System in Vietnam under Reform”. SOJOURN: Journal of Social Issues in Southeast Asia 16, no. 2 (2001): 187–212. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Institute of Development Studies. Poverty Mapping and Market Access in Vietnam. CD-ROM, 2003. Jamieson, N., Le Trong Cuc, and A.T. Rambo. The Development Crisis in Vietnam’s Mountains. East-West Center Special Reports No. 6. Honolulu: East-West Center, 1998. Joint Donor Report to the Vietnam Consultative Group Meeting. Poverty: World Development Report 2004. Hanoi, 2003. Khong Dien. Demography of the National Minorities of Vietnam (in Vietnamese). Hanoi: National Foreign Languages Press, 1995. Le Ba Thao. Vietnam: The Country and Its Geographical Regions. Hanoi: World Publishing House, 1997. Luong, Hy Van and J. Unger. “Wealth, Power and Poverty in the Transition to Market Economies: The Process of Socio-economic Differentiation in Rural

Social Mobility, Regional Disparities, and New Trajectories of Development

121

China and Northern Vietnam”. In Transforming Asian Socialism: China and Vietnam Compared, edited by A. Chan, B. Kerkvliet, and J. Unger. Sydney: Allen and Unwin; and Boulder: Rowman and Littlefield, 1999. Ministry of Construction Institute of Urban and Rural Planning. “Summary of Planning of Oil Chemical Center, Dung Quat, Quang Ngai Province”. Mimeographed. Hanoi, 1998. Ngo Doan Vinh. “Region: Some Theoretical and Practical Issues”. Mimeographed. Hanoi: Institute of Development Strategy, Department of Region and Territory, Ministry of Planning and Investment, August 1998. Ngo Vinh Long. “Agrarian Differentiation in the Southern Region of Vietnam”. Journal of Contemporary Asia 14, no. 3 (1984): 283–304. Nguyen Manh Hung. Kinh Te-Xa Hoi Vietnam 2002 — Ke hoach 2003 — Tang Truong Va Hoi Nhap [Vietnam socio-economy of 2002 — Plan of 2003 — integration and growth]. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House, 2003. Nguyen Van Chinh, Vu Quang Viet, Tran Van, and Le Hoang. Kinh te Vietnam Doi moi: Nhung phan tich va danh gia quan trong [The Vietnamese economy through doi moi: important analyses and evaluation]. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House, 2002. Poverty Task Force. Promoting Ethnic Minority Development: Strategies for Achieving the Viet Nam Development Goals. Hanoi, June 2002. Ravallion, Martin and Dominique van de Walle. Land Allocation in Vietnam’s Agrarian Transition. World Bank Working Paper No. 2951. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2003. Revilla Diez, Javier. “Vietnam: Addressing Profound Regional Disparities”. In Southeast Asian Affairs 1999, edited by Daljit Singh and John Funston, pp. 358–73. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1999. Sadoudet, David, Jean-Christophe Castella, Vu Hai Nam, and Dang Dinh Quang. “A Short History of Land Use Changes and Farming System Differentiation in Xuat Hoa Commune, Bac Kan Province, Vietnam”. In Doi Moi in the Mountains: Land Use Changes and Farmers’ Livelihood Strategies in Bac Kan Province, Vietnam, edited by Jean-Christophe Castella and Dang Dinh Quang, pp. 21–46. Hanoi: Agricultural Publishing House, 2002. Scott, Steffanie. “Changing Rules of the Game: Local Responses to Decollectivisation in Thai Nguyen, Vietnam”. Asia Pacific Viewpoint 41, no. 1 (2001): 69–84. Smith, William. “Land and the Poor: A Survey of Land Use Rights in Ha Tinh and Son La Provinces”. In Proceedings of the National Workshop on Participatory Land Use Planning and Forest Land Allocation. Hanoi: Agriculture Publishing House, 1997. Staddon, Caedmon. “Localities, Natural Resources and Transition in Eastern Europe”. Geographical Journal 165, no. 2 (1999): 200–8.

122

Steffanie Scott and Truong Thi Kim Chuyen

Taylor, Keith. “Surface Orientations in Vietnam: Beyond Histories of Nation and Region”. Journal of Asian Studies 57, no. 4 (1998): 949–78. Taylor, Philip. Fragments of the Present: Searching for Modernity in Vietnam’s South. Crow’s Nest, Australia: Allen and Unwin; Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 2001. Thrift, Nigel and Dean Forbes. The Price of War: Urbanization in Vietnam, 1954– 1985. London: Allen and Unwin, 1986. Tykkylainen, Markku. “Comparing the Key Actions of the 1990s Rural Restructuring”. In Local Economic Development: A Geographical Comparison of Rural Community Restructuring, edited by C. Neil and M. Tykkylainen, pp. 318– 46. Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 1998. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The Dynamics of Internal Migration in Vietnam. Discussion Paper 1. Hanoi, 1998. World Bank. Vietnam: Deepening Reform for Growth. East Asia and Pacific Region: Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit. Hanoi, 1997. Zhang Ping. “Rural Interregional Inequality and Off-Farm Employment in China”. In China’s Retreat from Inequality: Income Distribution and Economic Transition, edited by Zhao Renwei, Li Shi, pp. 213–28. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 2001.