MUMBAI - March 19, 2011

ENERGY OPTIONS FOR INDIA

MATERIALS SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY : A KEY DRIVER IN ACHIEVING ENERGY SECURITY

Baldev Raj Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research Kalpakkam - 603 102 India [email protected]; http://www.igcar.gov.in

Energy - Sustainable Development Linkage Development means the overall building of society in a wholesome manner. It enables people with opportunity

High growth rate witnessed today in economy is also concurrent with segregated poverty. Development has Ethics & Equity Component; So too the Energy issue

Economic development has already endangered the earth’s ecosystems Development & Environment are two locked casks, each holding the key for the other Energy Intensive Development is not sustainable. Earth’s resources are finite to support a perpetual energy intensive development paradigm

Boundary : Annual species extinction rate not more than 10 per million per year Current level: Atleast 100 / million / year Diagnosis: Boundary far exceeded Boundary : Not more than 15% of ice free land to be used for crops Current level: 12% Diagnosis: Boundary will be met by mid-century

Boundary : Atm. CO2 concentration not higher than 350 ppm Current level: 280 ppm Diagnosis: Boundary not exceeded

Boundary 1: Not more than 35 million tons of nitrogen fixed from the atm. every year Current level 1: 121 million tons/year Diagnosis 1: Boundary far exceeded and effects worsening Boundary 2: Not more than 11 million tons of phosphorus flow into the oceans per year Current level: 9 million tons / year Diagnosis: Boundary not yet exceeded

Boundary : Not more than 4000 km3 of fresh water consumed/year Current level: 2600 km3 per year Diagnosis: Boundary will be met by mid-century

Fuzzy boundary Boundary : Global average aragonite ‘saturation ratio’ not lower than 2.75 : 1 Current level: 2.90 : 1 Diagnosis: Safe for now, but some oceans will cross the threshold by midcentury

Boundary : Not yet determined Diagnosis : unknown

Boundary : Average concentration of stratospheric ozone not lower than 276 Dobson units Current level: 283 Dobson units Diagnosis: Safe, and improving

The balmy springtime of earth known as the Holocene is over, we are into a new era Anthropocene, which is defined by human domination of the key systems that maintain the conditions of the planet. We have today controlled the „Earth‟, but in our desire to advance, we forget to maintain its life-supporting systems . . . Fred Pierce, New Scientist, Feb. 2010

The World We Live in . . . .

World Energy Outlook up to 2030

The relationship between Population, Primary Energy Demand and GDP Growth remain robust across the globe; However, it is more pronounced in Non OECD Economies

World Energy Scenario Analysis: Quirin Schiermeierr et al., Nature 454, 14 (2008) 816-823  World Energy Requirement would increase (at least) twofold by 2050 Enough Clean Electricity in World but needs short term (realistic) and long term (ambitious but with adequate resources) strategy. Needs allocations and sustained commitment  Hydro Electric Power: Cheap and mature technology with substantial environmental costs Nuclear Fission: Major constraint will be politico-social acceptability, but has potential for large scale deployment. Fast Breeders with closed fuel cycle can meet the electricity demand for a few centuries Nuclear Energy is not a good option to be deployed in all countries Fusion is a break through technology; (but has a fairly gestation time) Biomass: The only possible carbon-negative system. But increasing opposition likely with increase in cultivation of energy crops in preference to agricultural crops  Wind: A wind power capacity of terawatt is likely, but only at select locations in the globe

Geothermal: Unlikely to be a major energy resource based on present day technology Cost is a consideration of distributed energy resources for societal, education and healthcare use and employment is a good option Solar: One of the most promising carbon free technology for future. But energy storage options should develop for effective utilisation of solar power Ocean Energy: Not a major energy resource presently

5

INDIA’S ENERGY SCENARIO ANALYSIS Two independent Projections Approach # 1: Based on GDP growth rate. Here again there are two projections: one from TERI & another based on an independent survey conducted by DAE. Approach #2: Based on per capita energy & electricity requirement. Planning Commission Policy Paper

Projecting the future – Commercial energy requirements (in Heat energy content/equivalent)

Projecting the future – Installed Electrical Power capacity (including captive power)

Projecting the future – Electricity Consumption

A comparison between two approaches

Adopted from: The Energy Scenario in India: Prof. S. N. Mitra Memorial Talk , by : Prof. S. P. Sukhatme, INAE Annual Convention, Dec.19, 2010

India’s Energy Resource Base Assessment Source: S. K. Jain: Inevitability of Nuclear Power in Asia Region, ANUP 2010 Conf. Proceedings, Oct .11, 2010.

53.3 -BT

Electricity Potential¤ GWe-yr 10,660

12 –BT

5,833

Amount Coal Hydrocarbon

Uranium-Metal

61,000 -T

- In PHWR

- In Fast Breeders Thorium-Metal (In Breeders) Hydro Non-conv. Ren.

328

42,231 2,25,000 –T

155,502

150 -GWe

69 GWe-yr / yr

100 -GWe

33 GWe-yr / yr

Assuming that the entire resource is used for generating electricity

P. K. Agarwal, T&D Ind Conclave, Nov. 26, 2010, New Delhi

MISSING PERSPECTIVES Paradigm Shift In Technology Management

Paradigm Awareness of Societal Responsibility

MISSING PERSPECTIVES

Energy Efficiency

Shift in Quality of Life (Less Energy Intensive)

Energy

Advanced Coal Gasification with CCS

Materials

Super/Ultra Super Critical Technology

Synergy

Advanced Gas Turbine Tech

Fission/Fusion Reactor

Solar Wind Bio Hydro Energy Materials Supply & Fabrication Chain

Battery, Fuel Cell, Cabling, Transformer

ALL ENERGY OPTIONS ARE RELIANT ON ADVANCED MATERIAL SYSTEMS

No Single Energy Option - A Portfolio of Energy Solutions & Energy Technologies are required for Sustainable Energy Development in future.

Materials For Energy Infrastructure . . Better, Faster, Cheaper & Cleaner Development of Energy Portfolio Key Approaches to meet challenges

Understand the materials - Basics How they interact with surroundings- Applied

Meeting the objectives • Substitution of materials • Increased understanding of the existing materials - to enhance design , predict and improve the properties in service

Materials Design in the context of power plant design requirements, component fabrication & Cost: Total Technology Development

Carbon Capture & Sequestration Technology

Ultra Super Critical Plants

TWIN TRACK APPROCH TO EMISSION CONTROL

Advanced Fossil Options + CCS : Expensive Solution to GHG

ADVANCED FOSSIL POWER MATERIALS Time line of Advanced Materials Development The progressive increase in steam conditions pushes the metallurgical limits of today’s alloys capabilities. R&D Efforts are still on for further improvement

Source: ALTSOM Power Bulletin

Materials Selection for Adv-USC Plant 300 kg/cm2

VHPT : Very High Pressure Turbine IPT : Intermediate Pressure Turbine LPT : Low Pressure Turbine

Ferritic, Austenitic Ni or Fe-Ni based

A paradigm shift with respect to state of the art high temperature high pressure technology development and realization

Materials For Advanced Fossil Options: Summary High Temperature Materials; Large Component Fabrication; Total Quality Audit & NDE life Cycle  Steam Turbines Monitoring – Prediction are the key material Issues Increased efficiency means

 Boilers

 Gas Turbines  Gasifiers  CO2 capture, transportation and storage

We have a moral obligation to STOP this from continuing . . .

higher temperatures and pressures. Fuel flexibility will lead to more aggressive environments (co-firing, biomass firing, oxy-firing, energy from waste) Need incremental changes to current materials

Materials development should be able to scale the process cost effectively, and help Capability to process and develop new low cost fabricate large size components alternatives

for mega plants

Need quantum change in the development of integrated materials system solutions for the future of energy materials

Ultra super /super critical boilers Global market for new and replacement thermal power plants is currently about 140 GW per annum (IEA 2010) In 2012 – 2017 plan period, 2,00,000 Mwe capacity addition is planned for India, of which bulk is from Coal

Nuclear Power No Greenhouse gas emission during operation

Dr. H. J. Bhabha 1909 - 1966

An emission - free energy source; - capable of large scale electricity production, good base-load management; Nuclear energy is key to India’s quest for sustained energy security consistent with climate stipulations “There is no power costlier than (having) no power” Dr. H. J. Bhabha

CHALLENGES FACING INDIAN NUCLERAR ENERGY COST COMPETITIVENESS

Prof. Enrico Fermi 1901-1954

NON-PROLIFERATION

“ The country that learns to build breeder reactor

SUSTAINABILITY

would have solved its

WASTE MANAGEMENT

energy problems for

SUSTAINED GROWTH

ever ”

INDIGENISATION OF SUPPLY CHAIN & FABRICATION

“ The country which first develops a breeder reactor will have a great competitive advantage in

Future Fission to Fusion

Atomic Energy ” - India made an early entry to Nuclear Energy

17 17

INDIAN ENERGY SCENARIO & RELEVANCE OF NUCLEAR OPTION Energy Resource

Nuclear Power Scenario

Adopted after: Dr. A. Kakodkar, IAEA 2005 Presentation

Stage-1 PHWR’s 18 Operating 3 under construction Planned Construction of 700 MWe Gestation period being reduced Power Potential : 10, 000 MWe

LWRs 2 BWRs opertaing 2 VVERs under construction

Stage - II Fast Breeder Reactors

• 40 MWth FBTR – 24 years of successful operation • (U,Pu)C fuel burn up 165 GWd/t achieved in FBTR • Sodium Technology mastered - Na pumps operate more than 1,50,000 h • 500 MWe Commercial FBR – Advanced stage of construction • Power potential – Minimum 530 GWe

Stage – III and Beyond Thorium Based Reactors

• 30 kWth KAMINI – Operating • 300 Mwe AHWR – Regulatory Evaluation • Power Potential = 155,000 GWe-y • Availability of ADS can enable early and enhanced introduction of Thorium Fuel Cycle • Participation in ITER towards development of fusion technology

Energy sustainability with closing the fuel cycle is the policy; Growth is limited by the ability to expand in a robust manner

FBR PROGRAMME IN INDIA Credible confidence in fuel cycle

25 years of successful operation

Innovative concepts

State-ofart concepts

No.

07

08 09

10

Hum reso an urce s

06

13725

Ø11950

04

05

02

FBTR • • • • •

40 MWt (13.5 MWe) Loop type reactor PuC – UC Design: CEA, France Since 1985…

• • • • •

CFBR

Main vessel

134

116

02

Core support structure

44.8

36

03

Grid Plate

76

34

04

Core

--

--

05

Inner vessel

61

55

06

Transfer Arm

--

--

07

Large Rotatable Plug

--

--

08

SRP/Control Plug

--

--

09

IHX

10

Primary Pump

--

--

11

Anchor safety vessel

110

95

12

Thermal Insulation

--

--

Future FBR

12

CFBR • • • PFBR 1250 MWt (500 MWe) • • Pool Type UO2-PuO2 Indigenous design and construction To commission in 2012

Weight in t PFBR

01

11

03 01

Component

500 MWe Pool Type UO2-PuO2 Six units (3 twin units) To commission in 2023

• • • •

1000 MWe Pool Type Metallic fuel Serial construction • Beyond 2025 --

--

ADVANTAGES OF FAST SPECTRUM REACTORS • Fission fraction is higher in fast spectrum (FRs have favorable neutron economy with respect to thermal neutron spectrum reactors) • High thermodynamic efficiency.

• With advanced materials for the fuel clad and wrapper, higher burn up can also be achieved • A fast reactor is ‘flexible“ in the sense that, it can be used as breeder or burner or sustainable reactor. • There are potential benefits of a closed fuel cycle based on fast reactors for waste management. • It is easier to transmute TRU or MA in a fast reactor core and there is less impact on the fuel cycle (e.g. at fuel fabrication). It is then possible to have a sustainable close cycle, with reduced burden on a deep geological storage

Materials Issues in Nuclear Reactors Nuclear fission – Irradiation Effects Neutron irradiation can generate point defects in metals and lead to transmutation of some elements In the case of low-alloy steels, neutron irradiation induces hardening and embrittlement as a function of : 􀂾 Irradiation temperature 􀂾 level of impurities (Cu, P …) Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) internals are subjected to a very high neutron flux which leads to major modifications of their properties •Swelling •Hardening (YS can be multiplied by 5) •Decrease in ductility and toughness •Changes in microstructure (grain boundary chemistry change, dislocation density and intragranular precipitates, microvoids, cavity)

“ It is only a paper reactor until the metallurgist tells us whether it can be built and from what ” - Norman Hilberry, Director, Argonne National Laboratory, 1957 to 1961

Sodium Cooled Fast Breeder Reactor

Technological Challenges in FBR Compact Reactor Core With High Fissile Content Use of Liquid Na as Coolant at high temperatures ( ~ 823 K) Design and fabrication of Materials that can withstand intense neutron dose, temperature, and loadings including Seismic

Reprocessing of highly active spent fuel

High Level waste management is very important for the success of Nuclear Option

Indian Fusion Programme: Material Science-based Indigenous Development of RAFM Steel and Fabrication Technologies Applied stress, MPa

400 350 300

o

500 C

250 200

o

550 C

150 o

600 C

100 Indian RAFM Eurofer 97 F82H

10

100

1000

10000

Rupture life, hour

Transformation temperatures In indigenously produced RAFM Steel

Creep rupture strength comparable to that of internationally developed RAFM steels

9Cr-1.4W-0.6 Ta RAFM steel Tempered martensitic structure

Electron beam welding of RAFM steel

Laths decorated with M23C6 & intragranular MX

Toughness of the weld metal (115 J) is as good as that of base metal (120-140 J)

Off- Shore Wind Energy : Potential Prospects, If Materials Challenges are addressed

Wind Energy Materials: Challenges Design & Turbine Technology Advances are Key Drivers in Off-Shore Wind Installations

88 M dia Rotor/ 2500 KW

Cost of Energy

Increasing Turbine Size Propelling Energy Economy

Stan Calvert, Jan 2009 Mat. Sci. in Wind Turbines http://www.eere.energy.gov/

Materials Science & Technology in Wind Turbine

Carbon Fibre

Stan Calvert, Jan 2009 Mat. Sci. in Wind Turbines http://www.eere.energy. gov/

Materials Issues in Bio Energy Conversion

The Sheer Variety of Feed Stock in Bio Energy Gasifiers presents specific Materials Problems Super heaters and other heat transfer equipment Condensing economisers Co-firing of waste/biomass-derived gases in existing plants Combustion engines & gas turbines

Materials for Solar Power Solar Power : Wide Array of Materials Segmentation for many possible applications: Examples

Solar yard in Rajasthan

Solar Photo Voltaic Technology Solar PV Technology according to development

Solar PV Technology according to Substrate

Adapted from: Yole Development [email protected]; [email protected]

Thinner flexible solar modules for integration into building

Polymer Photo Cell

Future trend: Flexible organic solar modules

Protective back sheets for solar cells

Materials Issues in Energy Saving Protocols Transmission, Distribution & Storage Light Bulb….200 yrs of R&D and Innovation on Materials for Energy - Still Continuing . . .

Materials R&D associated with transmission of Oil and Gas will include development of: Higher strength and toughness pipeline grades of steel - Clad / composite pipes More economic corrosion-resistant pipes for corrosive gas mixtures Lower cost cryogenic materials for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) transmission and LNG / liquid hydrogen storage High Temperature/High strength conducting wires / cables would enable overhead cables to carry more power with shorter insulating strings and within a lower silhouette Advanced materials like High Temperature Superconducting Cables to enable future upgrading

Cost Effective and Green 2006 LED for Street Lighting

ADVANCED GAS TURBINE TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION

Role of Materials Production & Fabrication Technology

Courtesy: RCMA & DMRL

Materials Availability Constraining Future Energy Technology: Scientific American (Nov. 2009)

•Highlight the Opportunities in Energy Sector •Build Image through Public Outreach •Program. •Change in Work Environment – more attractive & remunerative •Expansion of Career Opportunities •Performance driven incentives •Recognition of achievement

5 Lakh Tech 1.5 Lakh Non Tech Persons 12 th Plan

Construction

HUMAN RESOURCE CAPITAL IN ENERGY SECTOR Void in Higher Level Tech Management

Manufacture

Updating Technical & Managerial Skills

Breeding Attracting Fresh Talent

Increase in Productivity Decrease in MW to Man Power 200,000 MW by 2020

HR Capital Strategy

Changing Investment Climate

Materials

Changing Technology Climate

Retraining & Retaining Existing HR

Adequate Infrastructure currently lacking

•ITI, Polytechnical Inst., on Energy •Standardization of Curriculum •Expansion / Modernization of Training Infrastructure •Allocation of adequate funds •Proper Utilization of funds •Creation of Energy – Technology •Multidisciplianry Fellowships

Planning Implementation

Finance Marketing

Augmentation of Entire HR Value Chain HRC is in the Critical Path There will be a scarcity of HRC in High Tech. Energy Sector in near future, which unless addressed timely will make catching up with opportunities very difficult

Technology Related Factors Influencing Energy Options & Energy Materials Supply Chain Utilities

Drivers

Motivation for Materials Research, Development & Deployment in Energy Sector Motives for the Application of New Technology Market Driven Performance Improvements Reliability/Safety/Quality Improvements Cost Reduction Regulatory Imperatives Drivers for Alternate and New Material Environment (Emissions,CO2, Recycling) Energy Conservation Safety Indigenisation Development of Energy Materials Human Resource Capital Basic & Applied R&D on Energy materials Energy Materials Curriculum Periodic Refresher Training Modules

In this new “information age” and the anticipated “century of biology”, current popular literature indicates that science and technology activities will revolve around discoveries and technical applications in informatics and molecular biology. However, new products for both information technologies and the health sciences will depend on the integration of materials and materials processing in power plants, electronics, computers, optical devices, pharmaceuticals, and transportation vehicles. Mary L. Good University of Arkansas Formerly Under Secretary for Technology US Dept. of Commerce

Indian Energy Sector Poised for Quick Growth 300 million to be lifted out of Energy Poverty, no matter by which ever energy option

Indian Energy Companies Going Global Lanco & Adani Enterprises: Buying Stakes in Australian Coal Essar etc., $2 billion deal bidding for imported Coal mining Carborundum to enter Renewable Market

Resource Scarcity is going to be critical Shortage of Supply Chain – Indigenisation drive Shortage of middle & higher level Energy Tech Mgmt.

78,000 MW by 2012: 50,000MW by Coal 200,000 by 2020

Innovative Energy Management By exploiting the interconnectedness Of the modern business world

Availability of Money for Energy products – No longer Difficult: But money is becoming More ExpensiveInflation and Price Volatility More government Strictures Environment imperatives Energy Sector becoming more tech dependent

Extensive Nuclear Expansion JN Solar Mission Off-Shore Wind Installations

Energy Business Holds Immense Prospects

Indian Manufacturing Sector can become a hub for outsourced Jobs like IT

New Energy Business Paradigm Aggressive, committed, Focused Dependable Young Entrepreneurship Strategy to deal with Gov/ Public Interface in Changing Business Environment

Manufacture Tourism as a cliché like Medical Tourism (MMT, Pune, 2011)

Indian Power Industry has developed a momentum. It beckons opportunity to every stake holder

Improving Investment Climate – FDI enhancement Energy Technology Available MNC’s are no longer wary of doing business in India

Worldwide, the gravity of Energy sector is shifting towards Developing Economies

New Energy Business Paradigm Indian Soil – India Can do Better despite opening up to foreign Competition Highly Skilled & Ambitious Work Force Fairly Cheap Service Sector Large Employment Opportunity

Raw Material Supply Chain Indigenization

Interfacing with Energy Policy People; Investors – Public Outreach

Human Resource Capital Development

Energy Materials Agenda

Fabrication Capabilities of Large Components

Basic and Applied R&D on Optimal Materials Solution

Materials represent the common and ever present connecting link among all energy technologies. The future of sustainable energy campaign with a concurrent consensus on environmental concerns depends on constructive & cooperative interaction among all the components of Energy Materials Agenda

Energy, water, health, land, food are to be considered in a comprehensive and interlinked fashion for sustainable options with better quality of life to all the citizens of the Planet

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Science, art, literature and philosophy belong to the whole world, and before them vanish the barriers of nationality

EXTRA RESOURCE SLIDES

Data Source: P. K. Agarwal: 4th T&D Ind. Conclave, 26 Nov. 2010, New Delhi

Data Source: P. K. Agarwal: 4th T&D Ind. Conclave, 26 Nov. 2010, New Delhi