Southwest Michigan Regional Prosperity Initiative March 6, 2014 Meeting Notes

A review of Prosperity Plan milestones and deliverables was provided. Selection of Collaborative Model Concerns were expressed about the utility of the MPO model only providing a methodology for the creation of the Prosperity Plan. The implementation of the plan is a vital piece of our work. Whatever model we choose, our collective vision needs to predominate. Support was expressed for the MPO model. Support was also expressed for the Collective Impact model. Its use by the Kalamazoo Foundation was noted. Some of those in attendance were aware of its use by the Foundation. A vote was taken on the Prosperity Committee preference for a collaborative model. The results found that a blend of the MPO and Collective Impact models will be used. Staff will explore ways the two models can be combined for our use.

Selection of Prosperity Plan Author A presentation was made with a synopsis of each of the four author candidates. Of the four candidates, Rebecca Harvey’s experience as a planner and overall body of work seemed the best match. It was also noted that she had been a school board member in one of the member counties. Emily Bosch was identified as well qualified and considered a high quality option. A vote was taken on the Prosperity Committee preference for the Prosperity Plan author. Rebecca Harvey won by unanimous consent. Regional Data Presentation George Erickcek, Senior Regional Analyst, W.E. Upjohn Institute The Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) model was primarily used to project several trends. Population profile In 2025 a big spike is projected for school aged children. An increase is also anticipated within the 60-75 yr. old age cohort for 2025. Both spikes have impacts on spheres of interest represented in RPI including transportation and housing. Employment

Improved employment prospects projected to exceed employment levels measured for the region in 2000 and the levels appear to be better than those projected for the state as a whole. Employment sectors projected flat growth in manufacturing, flat in the government sector, small growth in the health care sector, and considerable growth in the “other services” sector. “Other services” sector has 70 different sectors represented in it. Those sectors can be further teased out if the group so desired. Education Job postings were measured to determine those requiring certain education levels. It was noted that less than 50% of them indicated education as a requirement. George noted that the region should ask employers to list educational background as a requirement. If this stipulation is made for employers, it gives colleges a better opportunity to connect with employers and respond to their needs. 37% of job postings ask for bachelor degrees but we have a smaller percentage than that in our population who have bachelor degrees. Similarly, the request for those with graduate degrees is also higher than that found in the general population. Unemployment A lot of people left the labor force. It is difficult to measure the situations of those who are indicated as having left the labor force. Are they full time students? Are they retirees (forced or otherwise)? Of the individuals who are unemployed 50% are under 34 yrs. old. 15% are in the 35-44 yr old cohort. 45% have completed high school. 25% have some college experience. A very low percentage of bachelors, associates, and graduate level degree recipients are unemployed. The message: education matters. The fact that 63% of unemployed have only a high school education or less is important for the region’s future and should inform regional strategies for adult education and community colleges. Underemployment is not in the REMI statistics. Age of the Workforce Profile of production workers shows that 27% of the workforce is within the 45-54 yr. old cohort; 15% are in the 55-64 yr. old cohort. How do we sell manufacturing to young people (2223 yr. old) as a viable alternative to college? Manufacturing represents 1 of every 5 jobs in the seven-county region. Healthcare: Lots of young people in healthcare. Sector represents 8-10% of jobs in region. Other occupations: Similar to manufacturing/production in its demographic profile. Where are Industrial Jobs Located? 30% of those jobs are in Kalamazoo County. 21% are in Calhoun County. 22% are in Berrien County. These are the three major metropolitan areas and employment centers in our sevencounty region. Export Activity

Exports are an important source of potential growth. They represent a multiplier effect that is advantageous. How do we plan an economy that expands into ever new areas/sectors? Vertical Flow Model Inputs include economic assets (roads, talent), talent attraction, and activities that create more jobs. Drainage or leakage comes from loss of assets (talented people, other asset damage). George believes that we need to build an attractive environment to keep leakage from occurring. Agri-business REMI model says that the multiplier for jobs in food processing are three to one. In other words if we create one job in food processing, three others will follow in the agribusiness sector. Data Discussion • Clarifying questions • What’s missing from the data? Who benefits from growth? Is that benefit universal? Or do only some individuals get the advantage from growth? We should consider tying benefits to the educational demands of the jobs we seek to create. Transportation access is a really important component of improving employment levels. We need to measure the number of low income individuals who get jobs and their level of transportation access. There are gaps between job requirements/need and the available workforce assets. The skills gap needs to be quantified. Income data is important to accompany educational attainment. GDP by individual county or other political subdivision. How can we measure the transportation deficit? Where is public transit available and where isn’t it? This information should be married to geographic business clusters. MDOT has offered to help identify transportation resources across the region. Federal and State investments across the region should be identified and reported.