Current (2015/08/03) 51.67 35.25 5 220.00 14.78 984.53 775.00 500.00
42.00 10 993.50
42.00 10 993.50
Market Commentary The USD recovered this morning to start trading this week on the front, after weakening towards the end of last week when subdued U.S. wage growth produced a clouded outlook over when U.S. interest rates were likely to rise. Traditionally when the USD strengthens at such a rapid pace this is a clear sign that headwinds are forming for emerging markets (EM’s), thus EM currencies are generally seen as inversely related to the USD. The USD has been rampaging forward and strengthening across the board lately and thus broad EM weakening is evident. This has thus definitely dampened investor appetite for EM currencies which is clearly driving this broad EM weakness of which the ZAR has been the worst performing currency. Locally the sentiment is that the ZAR is very much overdone and has weakened far from its fair value, however international analysts are still of the opinion that the USD is set for yet another week of gains ahead of the data releases to come. Commodities too are singing the emerging market blues as they continue fall in the wake of the economic slowdown in China, The potential Fed tightening in September and still no definite resolution to the Greek-saga. Crude oil continued to struggle after posting its biggest monthly drop since 2008 in July on China's stock market slump and signs that top Middle East producers were pumping out crude at record levels. Copper prices fell 10% in July, their worst month since January and are now at their lowest levels since June 2009. Gold has made a slight comeback and looks set to hold in this range of $1092/$1100 for the short term, however in the long term this does not look to be great investment in the wake of the Fed potentially tightening late in September. Today on the international news front all eyes will be focussed and eagerly awaiting the U.S. Manufacturing PMI (16:00) which is expected to show flat but positive expectation of their future economic climate forecast at 53.5. Locally we will receive the total new vehicle sales for RSA (11:00) forecast to show a cooling economic climate here in RSA. The ZAR is clearly on the defensive with no real end in sight or point of reprieve from the majors thus look to buy USD/ZAR on dips below 12.65.
after posting its biggest monthly drop since 2008 in July on China's stock market slump and signs that top Middle East producers were pumping out crude at ...
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