COMPANY UPDATE
Thailand
Delta Electronic (Thailand) (DELTA.BK/DELTA TB)*
ประมาณการ 2Q61: คาดว่ ากาไรจะออกมาดี
Outperform‧Maintained Price as of 18 July 2018
63.75
12M target price (Bt/share)
74.00
Unchanged/Revised up(down)(%)
Unchanged
Upside/downside (%)
16.1
Key messages
เราคาดว่ากาไรสุ ทธิใน 2Q61 จะอยูท่ ี่ 1.3 พันล้านบาท (+49% YoY และ +19% QoQ) จากยอดขายและอัตรากาไรขั้นต้นที่ เพิ่มขึ้น ซึ่ งทาให้กาไรใน 1H61 อยูท่ ี่ 2.3 พันล้านบาท (+6% YoY) ซึ่ งคิดเป็ น 49% ของประมาณการกาไรทั้งปี ของเรา ยอดขายที่แข็งแกร่ งสอดคล้องกับแนวโน้มที่สดใสของ hyper scale data center ในขณะที่อตั รากาไรขั้นต้นที่ฟ้ื นตัวดีข้ ึนจาก ไตรมาสก่อนก็ช่วยยืนยันถึงสัมพันธภาพที่ดีระหว่าง DELTA กับ supplier เรายังคงคาแนะนา "ซื้ อ" ราคาเป้ าหมายกลางปี 2562 ที่ 74.00 บาท อิงจาก PER ที่ 16.5x (ค่าเฉลี่ยของกลุ่ม +0.5 S.D.) Trading data Mkt cap (Btbn/US$bn) Outstanding share (mn) Foreign ownership (mn) 3M avg. daily trading (mn) 52-week trading range (Bt) Performance (%)
79.5/1.99 1,247 1,116 2 55.5 - 92.8
3M
6M
Absolute
-11.1
-17.2
Relative
-2.40
-7.80
3M 28.2 30.8
Quarterly EPS EPS 2015 2016 2017 2018
Q1 1.25 1.00 1.08 0.85
Q2 1.37 1.07 0.68
Q3 1.40 1.13 1.13
Q4 1.37 1.23 1.07
Event เราคาดว่ากาไรสุ ทธิ ใน 2Q61 จะอยูท่ ี่ 1.3 พันล้านบาท (+49% YoY และ +19% QoQ) จากยอดขายและ อัตรากาไรขั้นต้นที่เพิ่มขึ้น ซึ่ งกาไรในไตรมาสสองจะทาให้กาไรใน 1H61 อยูท่ ี่ 2.3 พันล้านบาท (+6% YoY) ซึ่งคิดเป็ น 49% ของประมาณการกาไรทั้งปี ของเรา lmpact ยอดขายที่โตถึง 16% YoY ในไตรมาสแรกยืนยันแนวโน้ มเชิงบวกของ global server shipment ดังที่เราบอกไว้ในบทวิเคราะห์ Grab or Regret เมื่อวันที่ 4 มิถุนายน 2561 ว่า DELTA น่ าจะได้อานิ สงส์ จากการเติบโตของ hyper scale data center ซึ่ งคิดเป็ นประมาณ 30% ของรายได้รวมของบริ ษทั ได้หนุน ให้ยอดขายในไตรมาสที่สองโตถึ ง 16% YoY ในรู ปสกุลดอลลาร์ เป็ น US$418 ล้าน และส่ งผลให้ ยอดขายใน 1H61 อยูท่ ี่ US$812 ล้าน (+15% YoY) คิดเป็ น 51% ของประมาณการทั้งปี ของเรา อัตรากาไรขั้นต้ นที่เพิม่ ขึน้ 0.5ppt แสดงถึงสัมพันธภาพที่ดรี ะหว่าง DELTA กับ supplier เราคาดว่าอัตรากาไรขั้นต้นใน 2Q61 จะขยับเพิ่มขึ้นจาก 21.8% ซึ่ งเป็ นระดับที่ต่าที่สุดนับตั้งแต่ปี 2549 มาเป็ น 22.3% ใน 2Q61 ถึ งแม้ว่าอัตรากาไรขั้นต้นจะยังต่ากว่าเมื่อ 2Q61 ซึ่ งอยูท่ ี่ 25.4% แต่อตั รากาไร ขั้นต้นที่ฟ้ื นตัวดีข้ ึนจากไตรมาสก่อนก็ช่วยยืนยันถึงสัมพันธภาพที่ดีระหว่าง DELTA กับ supplier ดังนั้น บริ ษทั จึงน่าจะได้รับผลกระทบไม่มากนักจากปัญหาการขาดแคลนวัตถุดิบ ประมาณการกาไรปี นีข้ องเรายังมี Upside อีก ~5 -10% เนื่ องจากรายได้และกาไรสุ ทธิ ในครึ่ งแรกของปี นี้ น่าจะออกมาประมาณครึ่ งหนึ่ งของประมาณการทั้งปี ของเรา ดังนั้น เราจึงคาดว่าประมาณการกาไรปี นี้ ยงั มี upside อีกประมาณ 5-10% Valuation & Action เรายังคงคาแนะนา "ซื้ อ" ราคาเป้ าหมายกลางปี 2562 ที่ 74.00 บาท อิงจาก PER ที่ 16.5x (ค่าเฉลี่ ยของ กลุ่ม +0.5 S.D.) ทั้งนี้ ราคาหุ ้น DELTA ร่ วงลงมาเหลื อแค่ 55.50 บาทตอนสิ้ นเดื อนมิถุนายน ก่อนที่จะ ดีดกลับขึ้ นไปถึ ง 15% ในช่ วงสองสัปดาห์ที่ผ่านมา เราคาดว่าราคาหุ ้นที่ร่วงลงมาก่ อนหน้านี้ เกิ ดจาก ความกัง วลว่ า ผลประกอบการในไตรมาสที่ ส องจะอ่ อ นแอ แต่ อ ย่า งไรก็ ต าม เรายัง คงมองว่ า ผล ประกอบการจะฟื้ นตัวขึ้น และแนะนาให้นกั ลงทุนซื้ อสะสมเพื่อรอการฟื้ นตัวของผลประกอบการ Risks ภัยธรรมชาติ, มีการปิ ดโรงงานนอกแผน, ลูกค้าเปลี่ยนไปสัง่ สิ นค้าจาก supplier รายอื่น และเงินเบาทแข็ง ค่าขึ้นเมื่อเทียบกับดอลลาร์ สหรัฐ (เราใช้สมมติฐานอัตราแลกเปลี่ยนปี นี้ ที่ 30.9 บาท/US$)
Share price chart 100
15
5
90
Key financials and valuations
(5)
80 (15) 70
(25) 60
(35)
50
(45) Jul-17
Sep-17 Share Price
Dec-17
Feb-18
Source: SET
Chananthorn Pichayapanupat 66.2658.8888 Ext.8849
[email protected]
July 19, 2018
May-18
Price performance relative to SET
Jul-18
Revenue (Btmn) Gross Profit (Btmn) SG&A (Btmn) Net Profit (Btmn) Normalized Profit (Btmn) EPS(Bt) Normalized EPS(Bt) DPS(Bt) EPSGrowth (%) Normalized EPSGrowth P/E(X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Net Debt to Equity (%) Dividend Yield (%) Return on Average Equity (%)
Dec - 16A 46,887 12,416 7,319 5,516 5,333 4.42 4.28 3.00 (17.8) (15.4) 18.4 3.2 9.1 (62.1) 3.7 17.3
Dec - 17A 49,269 12,547 6,976 4,931 5,806 3.95 4.65 2.20 (10.6) 8.9 18.5 2.8 8.3 (53.3) 3.0 15.2
Dec - 18F 49,588 11,384 7,240 4,682 4,682 3.75 3.75 2.06 (5.0) (19.4) 17.0 2.2 10.3 (48.9) 3.2 13.2
Dec - 19F 53,754 13,700 7,741 6,407 6,407 5.14 5.14 3.08 36.8 36.8 12.4 2.1 7.7 (49.6) 4.8 16.8
Dec - 20F 57,064 14,821 8,160 7,228 7,228 5.79 5.79 3.48 12.8 12.8 11.0 1.9 6.7 (51.1) 5.5 17.6
Source: Company data, KGI Research
*The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities. http://research.kgi.com; Bloomberg: KGIT
Please see back page for disclaimer
1
Thailand
Delta Electronic (Thailand)
Figure 1: DELTA's 2Q18 earning preview
Btmn Revenue Gross Margin SG&A Operating Profit Operating EBITDA Non-Operating Inc./(Exp.) Net Profit Normalized Profit EPS(Bt) Normalized EPS(Bt) Percent Gross margin EBIT margin SG&A/sales
2Q18F 13,318 2,975 1,750 1,361 1,671 (51) 1,256 1,307 1.01 1.05 2Q18F 22.3 10.2 13.1
2Q17 12,296 3,123 1,681 1,505 1,751 (571) 843 1,414 0.68 1.13 2Q17 25.4 12.2 13.7
YoY (%) 8.3 (4.7) 4.1 (9.5) (4.6) (91) 49.0 (7.6) 49.0 (7.6) YoY (ppts) (3.1) (2.0) (0.5)
1Q18 12,528 2,731 1,711 1,149 1,443 (48) 1,058 1,106 0.85 0.89 1Q18 21.8 9.2 13.7
QoQ (%) 6.3 8.9 2.3 18.5 15.8 6 18.7 18.2 18.7 18.2 QoQ (ppts) 0.5 1.1 (0.5)
1H18 25,847 5,706 3,462 2,510 3,114 (99) 2,314 2,413 1.86 1.93 1H18 22.1 9.7 13.4
1H17 24,423 6,341 3,522 2,979 3,458 (546) 2,191 2,737 1.76 2.19 1H17 26.0 12.2 14.4
YoY (%) 5.8 (10.0) (1.7) (15.7) (10.0) (82) 5.6 (11.9) 5.6 (11.9) YoY (ppts) (3.9) (2.5) (1.0)
Source: Company data, KGI Research
July 19, 2018
*The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities. http://research.kgi.com; Bloomberg: KGIT
Please see back page for disclaimer
2
Thailand
Delta Electronic (Thailand)
Figure 2: Company profile
Figure 3: Core profit rebased in 2018
Delta Electronics (Thailand) PCL. (DELTA), was founded in
Normalized earnings, Btbn
1990 and is one of the world's leading producers of power supplies and electronic components comprising cooling fans, EMI filters and solenoids. DELTA’s key power management
9.0
8.0 7.0
6.0
products consist of switching power supply, DC-DC converters
5.0
and
4.0
solar
inverters.
The
products
are
widely
used
in
applications for automotive, medical, telecommunications, IT, automation and more
3.0
2.0 1.0
0.0 2016
2017
2018F
Source: Company data
Source: Company data, KGI Research
Figure 4: Revenue breakdown by application
Figure 5: Quite stable profitability
percent
percent
2019F
2020F
30.0 Automotive power and Fans Trading business
25.0
15.2
19.5
20.0 15.0 10.0
Industrial automation 6.9
5.0
24.2
1Q18
4Q17
3Q17
2Q17
1Q17
4Q16
3Q16
2Q16
1Q16
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
10.4
2Q14
0.0 1Q14
Non-auto fans (data center and telecom)
Data Center
6.9
6.9
Hand tools and charger
Grossprofit margin
Telecom
Source: Company data, KGI Research
Source: Company data, KGI Research
Figure 6: Consistency dividend payment
Figure 7: Cash per share
DPS (Bt/share): Dividend yield (percent)
Bt/share 5.4
16.4
4.8
15.2
17.0
15.2
14.8
15.5
15.8
15.2
13.3
3.7 3.0
2016
3.0
3.2
2.2
2.1
2017
13.2
14.1
13.9
14.3
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
3.5
3.1
2018F DPS
2019F
2020F 1Q15
Dividend yield
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
Source: Company data, KGI Research
Source: Company data, KGI Research
Figure 8: Company’s PER
Figure 9: Company’s PBV
PER, times
PBV, times
30.0
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
5.0
25.0
4.0
+2.0 sd = 22.0x
+2.0 sd = 3.9x +1.0 sd = 3.4x
+1.0 sd = 18.9x
20.0
3.0
15.0
Average = 15.7x -1.0 sd = 12.6x
10.0
-2.0 sd = 1.8x
-2.0 sd = 9.4x
2014
Source: KGI Research
July 19, 2018
2015
2016
Average = 2.9x -1.0 sd = 2.3x
2.0 1.0
5.0 0.0 2013
Net profit margin
2017
2018F
2019F
0.0 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
2019F
Source: KGI Research
*The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities. http://research.kgi.com; Bloomberg: KGIT
Please see back page for disclaimer
3
Thailand
Delta Electronic (Thailand)
Quarterly Income Statement Income Stetement (Bt mn) Revenue Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit Operating Expense Other incomes Operating Profit Depreciation of fixed asset Operating EBITDA Non-Operating Income Interest Income Other Non-op Income Non-Operating Expense Interest Expense Other Non-op Expense Equity Income/(Loss) Pre-tax profit Current Taxation Minorities Extraordinary items Net Profit Normalized Profit EPS(Bt) Normalized EPS(Bt) Margins Gross profit margin Operating EBIT margin Operating EBITDA margin Net profit margin Growth Revenue growth Operating EBIT growth Operating EBITDA growth Net profit growth Normalized profit growth
Mar-14A
Jun-14A
Sep-14A
Dec-14A
Mar-15A
Jun-15A
Sep-15A
Dec-15A
Mar-16A
Jun-16A
Sep-16A
Dec-16A
Mar-17A
Jun-17A
Sep-17A
10,768 (7,855) 2,913 (1,636) 107 1,384 (192) 1,576 75 0 75 (20) (20) 0 0 1,439 (45) 0 0 1,394 1,319 1.12 1.06
10,957 (8,028) 2,929 (1,571) 89 1,447 (199) 1,646 58 0 58 (23) (23) 0 0 1,482 3 0 0 1,486 1,427 1.19 1.14
11,456 (8,192) 3,263 (1,621) 108 1,750 (200) 1,950 215 0 215 (14) (16) 0 2 1,951 (9) 0 0 1,942 1,727 1.56 1.38
10,891 (8,209) 2,682 (1,553) (38) 1,091 (198) 1,289 78 0 78 (13) (13) 0 0 1,156 (35) 0 0 1,121 1,043 0.90 0.84
10,987 (7,949) 3,038 (1,515) 85 1,608 (191) 1,799 49 0 49 (8) (8) 0 0 1,649 (90) 0 0 1,559 1,509 1.25 1.21
11,466 (8,342) 3,124 (1,518) 89 1,695 (193) 1,887 80 0 80 (9) (9) 0 0 1,765 (62) 0 0 1,703 1,624 1.37 1.30
12,103 (8,945) 3,158 (1,656) 77 1,579 (197) 1,775 189 0 189 (12) (12) 0 0 1,755 (14) 0 0 1,741 1,553 1.40 1.24
12,382 (8,891) 3,491 (1,910) 154 1,735 (199) 1,933 94 0 94 (10) (10) 0 0 1,819 (109) 0 0 1,710 1,616 1.37 1.30
11,203 (8,247) 2,956 (1,842) 163 1,277 (201) 1,478 39 0 39 (9) (9) 0 0 1,307 (58) 0 0 1,250 1,211 1.00 0.97
11,273 (8,203) 3,070 (1,848) 121 1,342 (211) 1,553 31 0 31 (12) (12) 0 0 1,361 (32) 0 0 1,329 1,298 1.07 1.04
11,612 (8,533) 3,078 (1,725) 79 1,432 (220) 1,651 31 0 31 (14) (14) 0 0 1,449 (44) 0 0 1,405 1,373 1.13 1.10
12,800 (9,489) 3,312 (1,903) 89 1,497 (230) 1,727 82 0 82 (10) (10) 0 0 1,569 (35) 0 0 1,533 1,452 1.23 1.16
12,127 (8,909) 3,218 (1,841) 97 1,474 (233) 1,707 25 0 25 (10) (10) 0 0 1,489 (141) 0 0 1,348 1,323 1.08 1.06
12,296 (9,173) 3,123 (1,681) 63 1,505 (246) 1,751 480 0 480 (1,058) (1) (1,051) (6) 927 (84) 0 0 843 1,414 0.68 1.13
12,148 (9,048) 3,100 (1,710) 88 1,478 (264) 1,741 8 0 8 (10) (4) (4) (2) 1,476 (48) 0 (19) 1,409 1,424 1.13 1.14
Dec-17A Mar-18A 12,698 (9,592) 3,106 (1,743) 221 1,584 (298) 1,882 (23) 0 (23) 1,011 (5) 949 67 2,572 (3) (2) (1,240) 1,331 1,645 1.07 1.32
12,528 (9,797) 2,731 (1,711) 129 1,149 (295) 1,443 (48) 0 (48) 16 (5) 0 21 1,117 (62) (4) 0 1,058 1,106 0.85 0.89
27.1 12.9 14.6 12.9
26.7 13.2 15.0 13.6
28.5 15.3 17.0 17.0
24.6 10.0 11.8 10.3
27.7 14.6 16.4 14.2
27.2 14.8 16.5 14.9
26.1 13.0 14.7 14.4
28.2 14.0 15.6 13.8
26.4 11.4 13.2 11.2
27.2 11.9 13.8 11.8
26.5 12.3 14.2 12.1
25.9 11.7 13.5 12.0
26.5 12.2 14.1 11.1
25.4 12.2 14.2 6.9
25.5 12.2 14.3 11.6
24.5 12.5 14.8 10.5
21.8 9.2 11.5 8.4
0.6 33.9 25.2 27.2 29.4
1.8 4.5 4.4 6.6 8.2
4.6 20.9 18.5 30.7 21.0
(4.9) (37.7) (33.9) (42.3) (39.6)
0.9 47.4 39.6 39.1 44.7
4.4 5.4 4.9 9.3 7.6
5.6 (6.8) (5.9) 2.2 (4.4)
2.3 9.9 8.9 (1.8) 4.1
(9.5) (26.4) (23.5) (26.9) (25.1)
0.6 5.1 5.0 6.3 7.2
3.0 6.7 6.3 5.7 5.8
10.2 4.6 4.6 9.1 5.7
(5.3) (1.6) (1.1) (12.0) (8.8)
1.4 2.1 2.6 (37.5) 6.8
(1.2) (1.8) (0.6) 67.2 0.7
4.5 7.2 8.1 (5.6) 15.5
(1.3) (27.5) (23.3) (20.5) (32.8)
Source: KGI Research
July 19, 2018
*The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities. http://research.kgi.com; Bloomberg: KGIT
Please see back page for disclaimer
4
Thailand
Delta Electronic (Thailand)
Balance Sheet As of 31 Dec (Bt mn) Total Assets Current Assets Cash & ST Investment Inventories Account Receivable Others Non-current Assets LT Investment Net fixed Assets Others Total Liabilities Current Liabilities Account Payable ST Borrowing Others Long-term Liabilities Long-term Debts Others Shareholders' Equity Common Stock Capital Surplus Retained Earnings Preferred Stock
Profit & Loss 2016 46,319 38,928 20,117 7,297 10,697 818 7,391 211 5,966 1,214 14,428 12,402 11,349 321 732 2,026 0 2,026 31,891 1,247 1,492 30,705 0
2017 46,154 36,554 17,535 7,684 10,468 866 9,600 1,004 7,302 1,294 13,680 11,836 10,480 229 1,127 1,844 0 1,844 32,474 1,247 1,492 31,998 0
2018F 45,803 36,249 17,558 7,327 10,869 496 9,553 210 7,634 1,710 10,233 8,150 7,327 179 645 2,083 0 2,083 35,570 1,247 1,492 34,105 0
2019F 48,899 39,025 19,024 7,682 11,782 538 9,874 210 7,912 1,752 10,767 8,509 7,682 129 699 2,258 0 2,258 38,133 1,247 1,492 36,668 0
2020F 52,342 42,204 21,024 8,101 12,507 571 10,139 210 8,146 1,782 11,319 8,922 8,101 79 742 2,397 0 2,397 41,024 1,247 1,492 39,559 0
Year to Dec 31 (Btmn) Revenue Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit Operating Expenses Other Incomes Operating Profit Depreciation of fixed assets Operating EBITDA Non-Operating Income Interest Income Other Non-op Income Non-Operating Expense Interest Expense Other Non-op Expense Equity Income/(Loss) Pretax Profit Current Taxation Minorities Extraordinaries items Net Profit Normalized Profit EPS(Bt) Normalized EPS(Bt)
Source: KGI Research
Source: KGI Research
Key Ratios
Cash Flow
Year to 31 Dec Growth (%YoY) Sales OP EBITDA NP Normalized Profit EPS Normalized EPS Profitability (%) Gross Margin Operating Margin EBITDA Margin Net Margin ROAA ROAE Stability Gross Debt/Equity (%) Net Debt/Equity (%) Interest Coverage (x) Interest & ST Debt Coverage (x) Cash Flow Interest Coverage (x) Cash Flow/Interest & ST Debt (x) Current Ratio (x) Quick Ratio (x) Net Debt (Bt mn) Per Share Data (Bt) EPS Normalized EPS CFPS BVPS SPS EBITDA/Share DPS Activity Asset Turnover (x) Days Receivables Days Inventory Days Payable Cash Cycle Source: KGI Research
July 19, 2018
2016
2017
2018F
2019F
2020F
(0.1) (16.1) (15.6) (17.8) (15.4) (17.8) (15.4)
5.1 8.9 14.1 (10.6) 8.9 (10.6) 8.9
0.6 (20.5) (19.9) (5.0) (19.4) (5.0) (19.4)
8.4 36.7 30.3 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8
6.2 12.7 11.2 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8
26.5 11.8 14.1 11.8 11.9 17.3
25.5 12.3 15.3 10.0 10.7 15.2
23.0 9.7 12.2 9.4 10.2 13.2
25.5 12.2 14.6 11.9 13.1 16.8
26.0 13.0 15.3 12.7 13.8 17.6
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) 126.9 330.2 159.0 287.6 480.2 15.6 26.1 23.2 43.7 79.3 122.4 245.5 84.0 297.6 507.2 15.1 19.4 12.3 45.2 83.7 3.1 3.1 4.4 4.6 4.7 2.6 2.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 (19,795.6) (17,306.7) (17,379.1) (18,895.5) (20,945.7)
Year to 31 Dec (Bt mn) Operating Cash Flow Net Profit Depreciation & Amortization Change in Working Capital Others Investment Cash Flow Net CAPEX Change in LT Investment Change in Other Assets Free Cash Flow Financing Cash Flow Change in Share Capital Net Change in Debt Change in Other LT Liab. Net Cash Flow
2016 46,887 (34,471) 12,416 (7,319) 452 5,548 (861) 6,593 183 0 183 (45) (45) 0 0 5,686 (170) 0
2017 49,269 (36,723) 12,547 (6,976) 470 6,041 (1,041) 7,525 489 0 489 86 (20) 105 59 6,464 (276) (2)
2018F 49,588 38,204 11,384 7,240 660 4,804 1,168 6,026 0 0 0 (31) (31) 0 54 4,827 (145) 0
2019F 53,754 40,054 13,700 7,741 607 6,567 1,221 7,850 0 0 0 (23) (23) 0 62 6,605 (198) 0
2020F 57,064 42,243 14,821 8,160 742 7,403 1,266 8,733 0 0 0 (16) (16) 0 64 7,451 (224) 0
5,516 5,333 4.42 4.28
4,931 5,806 3.95 4.65
4,682 4,682 3.75 3.75
6,407 6,407 5.14 5.14
7,228 7,228 5.79 5.79
2016 5,529 5,516 861 (849)
2017 4,820 4,931 1,041 (1,152)
2018F 2,566 4,682 1,168 (3,285)
2019F 6,861 6,407 1,221 (768)
2020F 7,887 7,228 1,266 (607)
(2,280) (1,885) 19 (413) 3,249 (4,052) 0 0 (4,183) (803)
(2,745) (2,378) 1 (369) 2,075 (4,441) 0 0 (4,348) (2,365)
(907) (1,500) 0 593 1,659 (1,636) 0 0 (1,586) 22
(1,500) (1,500) 0 0 5,361 (3,894) 0 0 (3,844) 1,466
(1,500) (1,500) 0 0 6,387 (4,387) 0 0 (4,337) 2,000
Source: KGI Research
Rates of Return on Invested Capital Year 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Year
4.4 4.3 4.4 25.6 37.6 5.3 3.0
4.0 4.7 3.9 26.0 39.5 6.0 2.2
3.8 3.8 2.1 28.5 39.8 4.8 2.1
5.1 5.1 5.5 30.6 43.1 6.3 3.1
5.8 5.8 6.3 32.9 45.7 7.0 3.5
2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
1.0 83.3 77.3 120.2 40.4
1.1 77.6 76.4 104.2 49.8
1.1 80.0 70.0 70.0 80.0
1.1 80.0 70.0 70.0 80.0
1.1 80.0 70.0 70.0 80.0
2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Year
COGS Operating Exp. Operating Depreciation + + = Revenue Revenue Margin Revenue 73.5% 1.8% 16.6% 8.1% 74.5% 2.1% 14.2% 9.2% 77.0% 2.4% 15.9% 4.7% 74.5% 2.3% 15.5% 7.7% 74.0% 2.2% 15.6% 8.2% Working Capital Other Assets Capital Net PPE 1/ + + = Revenue Revenue Turnover Revenue (0.0) 0.1 0.9 1.0 (0.0) 0.1 0.8 1.1 (0.1) 0.2 0.8 1.2 (0.0) 0.1 0.8 1.1 (0.0) 0.1 0.8 1.1 Operating Cash After-tax Return Capital x x = Margin Tax Rate on Inv. Capital Turnover 8.1% 3.0% 0.2% 1.0 9.2% 4.3% 0.4% 1.1 4.7% 3.0% 0.2% 1.2 7.7% 3.0% 0.3% 1.1 8.2% 3.0% 0.3% 1.1
1-
Source: KGI Research
*The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities. http://research.kgi.com; Bloomberg: KGIT
Please see back page for disclaimer
5
Thailand
Delta Electronic (Thailand)
Delta Electronic (Thailand)– Recommendation & target price history Date 4-Jun-18 20-Mar-18 28-Feb-18 27-Nov-17 26-Jul-17
100
90 80
70
Rating Outperform Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral
Target 74.00 68.00 72.00 86.00 80.00
Price 65.00 66.00 68.00 85.50 89.50
60
50 Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17 Share price
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Target price lowered
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Target price raised
Source: KGI Research
July 19, 2018
*The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities. http://research.kgi.com; Bloomberg: KGIT
Please see back page for disclaimer
6
Thailand
Delta Electronic (Thailand)
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies Companies with Excellent CG Scoring Stock
Company name
Stock
Company name
Stock
Company name
EGCO KBANK KKP
ELECTRICITY GENERATING
KTB RATCH SCB
KRUNG THAI BANK
TISCO
TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
Stock
Company name
Stock
Company name
Stock
Company name
ADVANC AOT AP BBL BH BIGC CK CPALL CPN DRT
ADVANCED INFO SERVICE
ERW GFPT IFEC LPN MINT PS QH ROBINS RS SAMART
THE ERAWAN GROUP
SCC SPALI STEC SVI TASCO TCAP TMB TRUE
THE SIAM CEMENT
Stock
Company name
Stock
Company name
Stock
Company name
CENTEL DCC GL GLOW
CENTRAL PLAZA HOTEL
HMPRO ILINK KTC MAJOR
HOME PRODUCT CENTER
MAKRO MODERN TRT TVO
SIAM MAKRO
THAI VEGETABLE OIL
KASIKORNBANK KIATNAKIN BANK
RATCHABURI ELECTRICITY GENERATING HOLDING THE SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK
Companies with Very Good CG Scoring
AIRPORTS OF THAILAND ASIAN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT BANGKOK BANK BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL BIG C SUPERCENTER CH. KARNCHANG CP ALL CENTRAL PATTANA DIAMOND ROOFING TILES
GFPT INTER FAR EAST ENGINEERING L.P.N. DEVELOPMENT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PRUKSA REAL ESTATE QUALITY HOUSES ROBINSON DEPARTMENT STORE
SUPALAI SINO-THAI ENGINEERING AND CONSTRUCTION SVI TIPCO ASPHALT THANACHART CAPITAL TMB BANK TRUE CORPORATION
RS SAMART CORPORATION
Companies with Good CG Scoring
DYNASTY CERAMIC GROUP LEASE GLOW ENERGY
INTERLINK COMMUNICATION KRUNGTHAI CARD MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP
MODERNFORM GROUP TIRATHAI
Companies classified Not in the three highest score groups Stock
Company name
Stock
Company name
Stock
Company name
AAV ANAN BA BCH BDMS BEM BJCHI CBG
ASIA AVIATION
CHG CKP DTAC GLOBAL GPSC GUNKUL LPH MTLS
CHULARAT HOSPITAL
NOK PACE SAWAD TMT TPCH WHA WORK
NOK AIRLINES
ANANDA DEVELOPMENT BANGKOK AIRWAYS BANGKOK CHAIN HOSPITAL BANGKOK DUSIT MEDICAL SERVICES BANGKOK EXPRESSWAY AND METRO BJC HEAVY INDUSTRIES CARABAO GROUP
CK POWER TOTAL ACCESS COMMUNICATION SIAM GLOBAL HOUSE GLOBAL POWER SYNERGY GUNKUL ENGINEERING LADPRAO GENERAL HOSPITAL
PACE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION SRISAWAD POWER 1979 THAI METAL TRADE TPC POWER HOLDING WHA CORPORATION WORKPOINT ENTERTAINMENT
MUANGTHAI LEASING
Source: www.thai-iod.com Disclaimer: The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association ("IOD") regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an assessment of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (KGI) does not confirm, verify, or certify the accuracy and completeness of such survey result.
July 19, 2018
*The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities. http://research.kgi.com; Bloomberg: KGIT
Please see back page for disclaimer
7
Thailand
Delta Electronic (Thailand)
Anti-corruption Progress Indicator Level 5: Extended Stock CPN
Company name CENTRAL PATTANA
Stock SCC
Company name
Stock IFEC KBANK KKP KTB MINT SCB
Company name
Stock DTAC GFPT GL GLOW GPSC HMPRO KTC LPN MAKRO MODERN NOK
Company name
Stock GUNKUL ILINK MTLS
Company name
Stock RS
Company name
Stock CPALL LPH
Company name
Stock
Company name
Stock SVI TCAP TISCO TMB
Company name
Stock PACE PS RATCH ROBINS SAMART SPALI STEC TASCO TMT TPCH WHA
Company name
Stock QH TRT TVO
Company name
THE SIAM CEMENT
Level 4: Certified Stock ADVANC BBL DCC DRT EGCO ERW
Company name ADVANCED INFO SERVICE BANGKOK BANK DYNASTY CERAMIC DIAMOND ROOFING TILES ELECTRICITY GENERATING THE ERAWAN GROUP
INTER FAR EAST ENGINEERING KASIKORNBANK KIATNAKIN BANK KRUNG THAI BANK
SVI THANACHART CAPITAL TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP TMB BANK
MINOR INTERNATIONAL THE SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK
Level 3: Established Stock AAV ANAN AP BA BDMS BIGC BJCHI CENTEL CHG CK CKP
Company name ASIA AVIATION ANANDA DEVELOPMENT ASIAN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT BANGKOK AIRWAYS BANGKOK DUSIT MEDICAL SERVICES BIG C SUPERCENTER BJC HEAVY INDUSTRIES CENTRAL PLAZA HOTEL CHULARAT HOSPITAL CH. KARNCHANG CK POWER
TOTAL ACCESS COMMUNICATION GFPT GROUP LEASE GLOW ENERGY GLOBAL POWER SYNERGY HOME PRODUCT CENTER KRUNGTHAI CARD L.P.N. DEVELOPMENT SIAM MAKRO MODERNFORM GROUP NOK AIRLINES
PACE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION PRUKSA REAL ESTATE RATCHABURI ELECTRICITY GENERATING HOLDING ROBINSON DEPARTMENT STORE SAMART CORPORATION SUPALAI SINO-THAI ENGINEERING AND CONSTRUCTION TIPCO ASPHALT THAI METAL TRADE TPC POWER HOLDING NOK AIRLINES
Level 2: Declared Stock AOT BH GLOBAL TRUE
Company name AIRPORTS OF THAILAND BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL SIAM GLOBAL HOUSE
GUNKUL ENGINEERING INTERLINK COMMUNICATION MUANGTHAI LEASING
QUALITY HOUSES TIRATHAI THAI VEGETABLE OIL
Level 1: Committed Stock CBG MAJOR
Company name CARABAO GROUP
RS
Stock Company name SAWAD SRISAWAD POWER 1979
MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP
No progress Stock BCH BEM
Company name BANGKOK CHAIN HOSPITAL BANGKOK EXPRESSWAY AND METRO
CP ALL
Stock WORK
Company name WORKPOINT ENTERTAINMENT
LADPRAO GENERAL HOSPITAL
Source: www.cgthailand.org Disclaimer: The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by the relevant institution as disclosed by the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission, is made in order to comply with the policy and sustainable development plan for the listed companies. The relevant institution made this assessment based on the information received from the listed company, as stipulated in the form for the assessment of Anti-corruption which refers to the Annual Registration Statement (Form 56-1), Annual Report (Form 56-2), or other relevant documents or reports of such listed company . The assessment result is therefore made from the perspective of a third party. It is not an assessment of operation and is not based on any inside information. Since this assessment is only the assessment result as of the date appearing in the assessment result, it may be changed after that date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (KGI) does not confirm, verify, or certify the accuracy and completeness of the assessment result.
July 19, 2018
*The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities. http://research.kgi.com; Bloomberg: KGIT
Please see back page for disclaimer
8
Thailand
KGI Locations
China
Contact
Shanghai Room 1507, Park Place, 1601 Nanjing West Road, Jingan District, Shanghai, PRC 200040 Room 24D1, 24/F, A Unit, Zhen Ye Building, 2014 Bao’annan Road,
Shenzhen
Shenzhen, PRC 518008
Taiwan
Taipei
700 Mingshui Road, Taipei, Taiwan Telephone 886.2.2181.8888 ‧
Hong Kong
41/F Central Plaza, 18 Harbour Road, Wanchai, Hong Kong Telephone 852.2878.6888
Thailand
Facsimile 886.2.8501.1691
Bangkok
Facsimile 852.2878.6800
8th - 11th floors, Asia Centre Building 173 South Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10120, Thailand Telephone 66.2658.8888
Singapore
Facsimile 66.2658.8014
4 Shenton Way #13-01 SGX Centre 2 Singapore 068807 Telephone 65.6202.1188 Facsimile 65.6534.4826
KGI's Ratings
Rating
Definition
Outperform (OP)
The stock's excess return over the next twelve months is ranked in the top 40% of KGI's coverage universe in the related market (e.g. Taiwan)..
Neutral (N)
The stock's excess return over the next twelve months is ranked in the range between the top 40% and the bottom 40% of KGI's coverage universe in the related market (e.g. Taiwan)
Under perform (U)
The stock's excess return over the next twelve months is ranked in the bottom 40% of KGI's coverage universe in the related market (e.g. Taiwan).
Not Rated (NR)
The stock is not rated by KGI.
Restricted (R)
KGI policy and/or applicable law regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an investment recommendation, during the course of KGI's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances.
Excess return = 12M target price/current priceNote
Disclaimer
July 19, 2018
When an analyst publishes a new report on a covered stock, we rank the stock's excess return with those of other stocks in KGI's coverage universe in the related market. We will assign a rating based on its ranking. If an analyst does not publish a new report on a covered stock, its rating will not be changed automatically.
KGI Securities (Thailand) Plc. ( “The Company” ) disclaims all warranties with regards to all information contained herein. In no event shall the Company be liable for any direct, indirect or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of income or profits, arising by utilization and reliance on the information herein. All information hereunder does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any securities but constitutes our sole judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
*The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities. http://research.kgi.com; Bloomberg: KGIT
Please see back page for disclaimer
9