New Zealand Property

report

July2016

overview Has the shine gone off the Auckland property market? Interest in the Auckland property market has dropped on the back of ever increasing house prices and falling returns for investors. Auckland average asking prices rose again to another all-time high in June to $888,493, but searches on realestate.co.nz for properties in the city has fallen, says CEO Brendon Skipper. “It could be a turning point for Auckland, with prices now at an all-time high they’re almost out of reach for the average income earner, with first home buyers the hardest hit,” he says.

terms of affordability they are forced to move even further afield, or they are making lifestyle changes,” he observes. Hot spots in Northland are Waipu, Whangarei Heads, Paihia and Tutukaka which all have a significant increase in users looking in those areas. “Whangarei Heads is the suburb to watch, with online engagement up by 42 per cent on same time last year,” notes Brendon. In the Far North, Kerikeri Surrounds, Paihia and the Karikari Peninsula were the most searched.

“Nationally, the volume

of traffic to our site is comparable across the country for this time of year, but it appears buyers are moving away from looking in the Auckland area in favour of other regions

During June, the number of users searching Auckland houses ‘for sale’ on realestate.co.nz fell by 19.33 per cent compared to the same time last year. The site also measures engagement and in June it fell by more than a third across the Auckland region when compared to June 2015.

“Nationally, the volume of traffic to our site is comparable across the country for this time of year, but it appears buyers are moving away from looking in the Auckland area in favour of other regions,” comments Brendon.

Northland, Hamilton, Tauranga and Queenstown flavours of the month Searches for properties in Northland, Hamilton, Tauranga and Queenstown were up significantly in June compared to the same period last year. “It appears Aucklanders still want to stay in relatively close proximity to our biggest city, but in

”

Further south, Hamilton and Tauranga continues to attract high levels of online engagement and Queenstown continues to be a perennial favourite,” says Brendon.

Theoretical yield for new Auckland property investors takes a dive

Auckland property investors are taking a hit on their theoretical yield in the rental market. “Investors buying a house in June at the average price of $888,493 theoretically would receive 3.18 per cent yield on the average rent in Auckland – based on our calculation of average asking price vs weekly rental price, excluding all external costs,’ explains Brendon. “This puts them at the bottom of the ladder across all 19 regions.” “It suggests that Auckland investors are relying on future capital gains rather than rental returns or having to look at other property types when considering their investments” Nationally, the average theoretical yield on a property

overview is 3.96 per cent (based on the average price and rented out at the average asking rental price). By comparison, the star performer in terms of theoretical yield on investment property is Otago, showing an average yield of 7.32 per cent.

National picture shows that sellers are back in the market

“The message seems to be getting through that with the shortage of listings and the speed in which properties are selling. It’s a sellers’ market. “While there are still a shortage of listings this is a positive sign for getting more equilibrium in the marketplace,” he says.

Across the nation, sellers are coming back in the market with 15 out of the 19 regions showing an increase in new listings compared to the same time last year. “This is significant, as June is traditionally a quiet time of the year, on a par with December and January” explains Brendon.

About Realestate.co.nz Realestate.co.nz is dedicated to property and is the official website of the New Zealand real estate industry. As a property listing site, the information it draws on for its property report is in real time. Realestate.co.nz has the country’s most comprehensive selection of real estate listings online. The site presents more than 97 per cent of all residential, commercial and rural properties currently marketed by real estate professionals. Focussed exclusively on people in need of property, Realestate.co.nz offers superior functionality, including accurate search, school zone data and a mobile app.

Glossary of terms Realestate.co.nz provides valuable property market data not available from other sources. • Average asking price gives an indication of current market sentiment. Statistically, asking prices tend to correlate closely with the sales prices recorded in future months when those properties are sold. As it looks at different data, average asking prices may differ from recorded sales data released at the same time.

Brendon Skipper CEO, Realestate.co.nz

• Inventory is a measure of how long it would take, theoretically, to sell the current stock at current average rates of sale if no new properties were to be listed for sale. It provides a measure of the rate of turnover in the market. • New listings are a record of all the new listings on Realestate.co.nz for the relevant calendar month. As we reflect 97 per cent of all properties listed through registered estate agents in New Zealand, this gives a representative view of the market. • Seasonal adjustment is a method we use to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in New Zealand. This is done using methodology from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research. • Truncated mean is the method we use to provide statistically relevant asking prices. The top and bottom 10 per cent of listings in each area are removed before the average is calculated, to prevent exceptional listings from providing false impressions. Read more here.

Property

asking price Auckland

Northland

$888,493 1.0%

$503,527 4.3%

Property Asking Price for June 2016 $577,527 Compared to prior month +1.1% Coromandel

$604,994 7.7%

Waikato

Bay of Plenty

$466,868 0.2%

$527,828 1.6%

Central North Island

Gisborne

$345,006 4.2%

$286,825 0.7%

Taranaki

Hawkes Bay

$359,997 5.9%

$365,481 -1.6%

Nelson

Manawatu/Wanganui

$482,916 -5.4%

$284,326 4.3%

West Coast

Wairarapa

$281,868 14.4%

$360,573 0.0%

Central Otago/Lakes

Wellington

$860,234 4.9%

$508,891 -0.9%

Southland

Marlborough

$262,285 -0.1%

$416,629 2.3%

Otago

Canterbury

$318,897 -0.8%

Price Change > 5%

< 5%

0

> 5%

Decrease Asking prices for new listing calculated as seasonally adjusted prices using X12 ARIMA methodology

Property Asking Price for June 2016 $577,527

Truncated mean asking price

$466,753 -1.2% < 5%

Increase

Property

new listings Auckland

3,369 7.4%

New Property Listings for June 2016 9,327 Compared to June 2015 6.6%

Northland

Coromandel

369 1.9%

114 -10.2% Bay of Plenty

Waikato

654 2.8%

732 10.6%

Gisborne

Central North Island

60 0.0%

130 3.2% Taranaki

Hawkes Bay

230 11.1%

285 21.3%

Nelson

Manawatu/Wanganui

151 16.2%

431 18.1%

West Coast

Wairarapa

53 -14.5%

102 -1.0%

Central Otago/Lakes

Wellington

172 -4.4%

628 4.3%

Southland

Marlborough

254 16.0%

91 -33.1%

Otago

Canterbury

290 3.2%

1,212 8.5%

Listing Change > 20%

< 20%

Decrease Actual data of new listings

New Property Listings for June 2016 9,327

0

< 20%

> 20%

Increase

inventory of listings

NZ Inventory of Listings for June 2016 12 weeks Compared to Long Term Average (LTA) 33 weeks

Auckland

Northland

Coromandel

9 weeks LTA: 24

24 weeks LTA: 108

26 weeks LTA: 161

Waikato

Bay of Plenty

9 weeks LTA: 39

9 weeks LTA: 47

Central North Island

Gisborne

16 weeks LTA: 76

13 weeks LTA: 42

Taranaki

Hawkes Bay

20 weeks LTA: 28

9 weeks LTA: 36

Nelson

Manawatu/Wanganui

11 weeks LTA: 27

16 weeks LTA: 38

West Coast

Wairarapa

144 weeks LTA: 130

16 weeks LTA: 85

Central Otago/Lakes

Wellington

13 weeks LTA: 78

5 weeks LTA: 20

Southland

Marlborough

18 weeks LTA: 34

12 weeks LTA: 47

Otago

Canterbury

11 weeks LTA: 26

Market Sentiment Rating

Sellers

16 weeks LTA: 26

Buyers

The inventory levels reflect the projected number of weeks to clear existing inventory of unsold homes on the market matched to the Long Term Average (LTA) for the region based on 8 years of seasonally adjusted data.

NZ Inventory of Listings for June 2016 12 weeks

Number of weeks of inventory based on 3 month moving average rate of sales

NZ Property Market – Inventory – Number of weeks of inventory based on rate of seasonally adjusted sales

Long Term Average

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