Electoral projections for the next federal elections Projections électorales pour la prochaine élection fédérale

www.tooclosetocall.ca www.silatendancesemaintient.ca

19/06/2015 % Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Canada*

CPC 23.4 16.5 32.8 36.6 46.8 26.0 28.8

LPC 37.8 24.5 28.2 25.4 15.6 23.4 25.8

NDP 31.6 29.5 32.0 30.9 30.6 38.0 32.9

Green 4.4 3.5 5.8 4.2 5.0 10.6 5.6

Bloc 25.0 6.0

Seats/Sièges Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Territories

6 8 52 14 27 7 1

19 16 36 5 0 10 1

7 41 33 9 7 24 1

0 0 0 0 0 1 0

13 -

Canada

115

87

122

1

13

CPC 23% 16% 16% 24% 11% 6% 10% 23% 19%

LPC 43% 65% 65% 50% 66% 17% 38% 61% 49%

NDP 32% 16% 16% 23% 21% 75% 50% 13% 28%

Green 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4%

Bloc

PEI

NFL

Riding/Circonscription Avalon Bonavista-Burin-Trinity Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame Labrador Long Range Mountains St. John’s East St. John’s South—Mount Pearl Cardigan Charlottetown

Probability of winning most seats (with majority below) Probabilités de gagner le plus de sièges (et d'une majorité en-dessous) CPC 43.3% 0.0%

LPC 0.3% 0.0%

NDP 56.4% 0.0%

Green 0.0% 0.0%

Bloc 0.0% 0.0%

Probability of winning the riding Probabilité de remporter la circonscription

CPC 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

LPC NDP 95.2% 4.8% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 100.0% 0.0% 99.8% 0.2%

Green 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Bloc

PEI NS NB

Egmont Malpeque Cape Breton—Canso Central Nova Cumberland—Colchester Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Halifax Halifax West Kings—Hants Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook South Shore—St. Margarets Sydney—Victoria West Nova Acadie—Bathurst Beauséjour Fredericton Fundy Royal Madawaska—Restigouche Miramichi—Grand Lake Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe New Brunswick Southwest Saint John—Rothesay Tobique—Mactaquac Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Abitibi—Témiscamingue Ahuntsic-Cartierville Alfred-Pellan Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia Beauce Beauport—Limoilou Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Beloeil—Chambly

39% 23% 19% 39% 37% 11% 4% 16% 23% 16% 26% 24% 31% 2% 18% 31% 42% 26% 37% 23% 41% 34% 46% 22% 10% 9% 11% 15% 13% 51% 25% 13% 44% 9%

43% 54% 54% 24% 29% 44% 35% 47% 49% 20% 28% 50% 48% 23% 50% 35% 20% 47% 32% 40% 24% 26% 27% 21% 17% 39% 33% 25% 33% 22% 17% 21% 17% 22%

15% 18% 23% 31% 26% 40% 55% 31% 23% 58% 40% 22% 16% 73% 26% 28% 31% 23% 27% 31% 28% 35% 23% 32% 37% 19% 30% 31% 14% 16% 34% 22% 20% 34%

3% 6% 5% 6% 7% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 2% 6% 6% 7% 4% 4% 6% 7% 4% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3%

20% 33% 30% 24% 25% 36% 8% 21% 40% 16% 32%

51.6% 0.0% 0.0% 96.6% 95.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 46.0% 98.5% 0.4% 90.5% 0.1% 99.5% 61.4% 100.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 8.9% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

48.4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.2% 3.3% 1.4% 74.4% 25.6% 0.3% 99.7% 98.7% 1.3% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3.5% 92.5% 100.0% 0.0% 96.7% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 46.8% 7.2% 0.0% 1.5% 99.6% 0.0% 8.4% 1.1% 89.1% 10.8% 0.1% 0.4% 2.1% 36.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 88.0% 0.0% 75.8% 92.9% 0.0% 68.6% 27.7% 13.0% 76.2% 34.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 89.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 61.9%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1.5% 24.2% 7.1% 3.7% 10.9% 65.5% 0.0% 1.1% 99.6% 0.0% 37.5%

QC

Berthier—Maskinongé Blainville Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Bourassa Brome—Missisquoi Brossard—Saint-Lambert Centre-du-Bas-Saint-Laurent Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Charlevoix—Montmorency Châteauguay—Lacolle Chicoutimi Compton—Stanstead Dorval—Lachine Drummond Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Gatineau Hochelaga Honoré-Mercier Hull—Aylmer Joliette Jonquière La Pointe-de-l'Île La Prairie Lac-Saint-Jean Lac-Saint-Louis LaSalle—Verdun Laurentides—Labelle Laurier—Sainte-Marie Laval—Les Îles LeMoyne Lévis—Lotbinière Longueuil Louis-Hébert Louis-Saint-Laurent

13% 10% 8% 8% 12% 13% 14% 30% 23% 12% 25% 12% 14% 16% 19% 8% 7% 13% 10% 10% 34% 8% 9% 42% 29% 10% 9% 4% 16% 10% 40% 9% 22% 37%

23% 21% 20% 47% 33% 43% 19% 17% 15% 20% 17% 23% 38% 19% 27% 25% 20% 42% 32% 17% 14% 18% 23% 15% 42% 27% 23% 19% 31% 23% 16% 20% 24% 17%

29% 37% 33% 21% 30% 25% 32% 33% 27% 36% 25% 34% 31% 39% 17% 48% 38% 25% 45% 34% 29% 37% 38% 18% 19% 35% 31% 37% 35% 33% 25% 38% 26% 28%

4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 6% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3%

32% 29% 35% 21% 22% 17% 32% 18% 32% 28% 30% 27% 12% 23% 34% 16% 32% 17% 10% 34% 21% 33% 27% 23% 4% 24% 33% 36% 14% 29% 16% 30% 25% 16%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 34.3% 2.2% 0.0% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 74.3% 0.0% 0.0% 99.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.0% 0.0% 8.7% 93.1%

3.4% 26.6% 0.1% 89.4% 0.1% 32.6% 100.0% 0.0% 67.1% 31.8% 99.8% 0.2% 0.2% 50.7% 0.2% 65.5% 0.0% 17.1% 0.3% 89.9% 0.5% 12.4% 2.0% 86.1% 86.7% 13.3% 0.1% 99.5% 11.0% 0.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 81.9% 99.7% 0.3% 3.0% 97.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 24.9% 0.0% 75.0% 0.8% 95.3% 0.0% 0.0% 99.3% 0.0% 7.7% 90.4% 1.8% 37.9% 0.0% 54.4% 29.2% 70.8% 2.2% 70.5% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 88.3% 22.8% 38.4% 0.0% 6.8%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

69.9% 10.5% 67.3% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 49.1% 0.0% 80.7% 9.8% 69.5% 11.8% 0.0% 0.4% 88.7% 0.0% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.7% 25.0% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% 60.3% 45.6% 0.0% 27.3% 0.0% 11.7% 30.1% 0.0%

Manicouagan 11% Mégantic—L'Érable 49% Mirabel 9% Montarville 10% Montcalm 8% Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup 36% Mont-Royal 36% Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount 18% Outremont 8% Papineau 5% Pierrefonds—Dollard 26% Pontiac 26% Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier 0% Québec 18% Repentigny 7% Richmond—Arthabaska 25% Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 10% Rivière-du-Nord 8% Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie 4% Sainte-Rose 10% Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot 16% Saint-Jean 11% Saint-Laurent 19% Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel 14% Saint-Maurice—Champlain 17% Salaberry—Suroît 12% Shefford 14% Sherbrooke 9% Soulanges—Vaudreuil 17% Terrebonne 8% Trois-Rivières 13% Ville-Marie 12% Vimy 13% Ajax 29%

17% 17% 18% 23% 15% 15% 50% 47% 30% 46% 39% 26% 24% 20% 18% 18% 21% 17% 18% 24% 16% 19% 51% 50% 22% 18% 20% 21% 22% 17% 21% 36% 31% 43%

34% 13% 37% 33% 39% 25% 7% 24% 46% 19% 24% 33% 42% 30% 39% 19% 36% 42% 41% 36% 40% 35% 18% 21% 29% 31% 38% 31% 31% 39% 37% 31% 30% 23%

4% 3% 4% 4% 5% 3% 4% 6% 4% 3% 5% 3% 5% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 5% 3% 5%

34% 18% 32% 31% 33% 21% 4% 5% 12% 27% 6% 11% 30% 29% 32% 35% 28% 29% 34% 26% 26% 31% 7% 11% 29% 35% 24% 36% 25% 32% 25% 17% 23%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 96.1% 0.0% 1.6% 98.4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 99.9% 1.5% 97.9% 8.3% 11.7% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 78.4% 0.0% 52.3% 3.8% 96.1%

51.8% 0.0% 74.8% 61.3% 83.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 99.1% 0.0% 0.6% 80.0% 94.7% 56.1% 86.4% 0.2% 88.8% 97.4% 87.0% 93.6% 98.6% 70.2% 0.0% 0.0% 41.7% 29.8% 98.7% 18.4% 81.1% 83.7% 97.0% 21.6% 44.1% 0.1%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

48.2% 0.0% 25.2% 36.9% 16.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 42.4% 13.6% 95.9% 10.8% 2.6% 13.0% 4.3% 1.4% 29.8% 0.0% 0.0% 54.2% 70.2% 1.2% 81.5% 13.2% 16.3% 2.7% 0.0% 3.6%

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Barrie—Innisfil Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Bay of Quinte Beaches—East York Brampton Centre Brampton East Brampton North Brampton South Brampton West Brant Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Burlington Cambridge Chatham-Kent—Leamington Davenport Don Valley East Don Valley North Don Valley West Dufferin—Caledon Durham Eglinton—Lawrence Elgin—Middlesex—London Essex Etobicoke Centre Etobicoke—Lakeshore Etobicoke North Flamborough—Glanbrook Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Guelph Haldimand—Norfolk Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Hamilton Centre

19% 37% 47% 41% 41% 10% 32% 16% 35% 31% 28% 37% 42% 41% 40% 40% 2% 23% 26% 29% 44% 45% 33% 46% 35% 28% 27% 20% 44% 38% 22% 38% 49% 13%

18% 33% 17% 22% 24% 34% 30% 34% 33% 40% 41% 23% 20% 27% 19% 20% 31% 42% 42% 46% 17% 18% 42% 17% 18% 45% 39% 46% 20% 34% 47% 29% 16% 16%

58% 24% 28% 29% 29% 50% 31% 45% 27% 24% 27% 36% 26% 26% 35% 35% 62% 30% 29% 20% 21% 30% 19% 32% 43% 22% 28% 31% 30% 23% 23% 28% 28% 68%

5% 6% 8% 9% 6% 6% 7% 4% 6% 5% 4% 5% 13% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 3% 6% 17% 6% 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% 2% 6% 5% 8% 5% 7% 2%

0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 68.4% 30.2% 1.4% 99.2% 0.0% 0.8% 95.3% 0.4% 4.3% 96.3% 0.2% 3.5% 0.0% 1.5% 98.5% 43.5% 27.1% 29.4% 0.0% 7.2% 92.8% 57.0% 38.8% 4.3% 11.2% 88.4% 0.4% 3.3% 94.9% 1.8% 53.5% 0.4% 46.1% 98.7% 0.2% 1.1% 97.6% 1.8% 0.6% 78.1% 0.0% 21.9% 75.5% 0.0% 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.2% 95.3% 4.5% 1.1% 94.6% 4.3% 1.3% 98.7% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 98.6% 0.0% 1.4% 10.2% 89.8% 0.0% 96.5% 0.0% 3.5% 14.3% 0.0% 85.7% 1.2% 98.8% 0.0% 2.4% 93.8% 3.8% 0.0% 98.7% 1.3% 98.3% 0.0% 1.7% 74.2% 25.6% 0.2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 85.2% 8.4% 6.4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Ont.

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Hamilton Mountain Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Hastings—Lennox and Addington Huron—Bruce Kanata—Carleton Kenora King—Vaughan Kingston and the Islands Kitchener Centre Kitchener—Conestoga Kitchener South—Hespeler Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Lanark—Frontenac Leeds—Grenville London—Fanshawe London North Centre London West Markham—Stouffville Markham—Thornhill Markham—Unionville Milton Mississauga Centre Mississauga—Cooksville Mississauga—Erin Mills Mississauga—Lakeshore Mississauga—Malton Mississauga—Streetsville Nepean Newmarket—Aurora Niagara Centre Niagara Falls Niagara West Nickel Belt

26% 21% 30% 44% 41% 42% 33% 43% 25% 28% 42% 39% 45% 50% 50% 22% 24% 32% 36% 23% 31% 42% 27% 29% 32% 33% 23% 32% 39% 40% 28% 41% 49% 15%

17% 19% 29% 20% 21% 29% 26% 32% 42% 37% 27% 23% 18% 19% 19% 15% 38% 31% 34% 41% 39% 28% 42% 41% 39% 42% 42% 40% 30% 29% 17% 22% 18% 18%

52% 55% 35% 30% 33% 22% 36% 20% 27% 29% 25% 32% 32% 24% 25% 58% 32% 33% 25% 31% 25% 23% 27% 25% 24% 21% 31% 23% 25% 25% 50% 30% 27% 63%

5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 7% 6% 6% 5% 7% 7% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 6% 6% 7% 4% 6% 7% 5%

0.0% 0.0% 20.8% 97.9% 82.9% 97.5% 28.5% 91.7% 0.2% 8.1% 97.1% 80.4% 96.2% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.7% 32.6% 58.0% 0.3% 15.2% 97.4% 3.1% 5.6% 17.9% 12.3% 0.3% 14.9% 92.5% 91.5% 0.1% 95.0% 99.9% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% 0.1% 2.4% 4.4% 8.3% 99.0% 82.6% 2.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 82.0% 22.2% 39.9% 92.4% 83.5% 2.4% 95.8% 93.5% 81.6% 87.7% 93.3% 84.8% 6.6% 7.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

100.0% 100.0% 66.5% 2.1% 17.0% 0.1% 67.1% 0.0% 0.8% 9.3% 0.4% 19.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 17.3% 45.1% 2.1% 7.3% 1.3% 0.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 6.3% 0.2% 0.9% 1.0% 99.9% 4.9% 0.1% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Nipissing—Timiskaming Northumberland—Pine Ridge Oakville Oakville North—Burlington Oshawa Ottawa Centre Ottawa—Orléans Ottawa South Ottawa—Vanier Ottawa West—Nepean Oxford Parkdale—High Park Parry Sound—Muskoka Perth—Wellington Peterborough Pickering—Uxbridge Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Richmond Hill Rideau—Carleton St. Catharines St. Paul's Sarnia—Lambton Sault Ste. Marie Scarborough—Agincourt Scarborough Centre Scarborough—Guildwood Scarborough North Scarborough—Rouge Park Scarborough Southwest Simcoe—Grey Simcoe North Spadina—Fort York Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Sudbury

23% 43% 39% 41% 36% 11% 33% 23% 18% 33% 47% 3% 42% 41% 39% 31% 52% 28% 50% 39% 21% 40% 26% 21% 20% 22% 20% 19% 18% 40% 39% 9% 52% 15%

40% 24% 35% 31% 12% 22% 41% 47% 40% 34% 13% 36% 16% 23% 24% 38% 19% 40% 23% 24% 43% 18% 24% 49% 36% 39% 32% 38% 32% 20% 24% 28% 21% 22%

29% 27% 21% 22% 46% 60% 21% 25% 35% 27% 34% 55% 33% 30% 31% 24% 24% 25% 20% 31% 30% 38% 46% 26% 39% 35% 44% 39% 43% 30% 29% 58% 24% 59%

8% 6% 6% 5% 6% 7% 5% 5% 7% 6% 6% 5% 10% 7% 5% 7% 4% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 6% 10% 8% 6% 4% 5%

0.6% 94.1% 5.3% 99.2% 0.1% 0.7% 71.5% 28.5% 0.0% 92.4% 7.5% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 88.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 0.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 79.8% 20.2% 38.6% 56.8% 4.6% 96.2% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.4% 99.6% 87.8% 0.1% 12.1% 93.0% 0.8% 6.2% 87.3% 0.5% 12.1% 17.4% 81.7% 0.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 93.1% 1.2% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87.9% 0.8% 11.3% 0.0% 97.4% 2.6% 60.0% 0.0% 40.0% 0.2% 0.1% 99.7% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 32.5% 67.4% 0.1% 72.4% 27.6% 0.1% 5.0% 94.9% 0.0% 44.6% 55.4% 0.0% 6.3% 93.7% 89.9% 0.4% 9.7% 92.5% 1.6% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Man.

Thornhill 49% Thunder Bay—Rainy River 14% Thunder Bay—Superior North 16% Timmins—James Bay 18% Toronto Centre 4% Toronto—Danforth 1% University—Rosedale 8% Vaughan—Woodbridge 42% Waterloo 28% Wellington—Halton Hills 51% Whitby 44% Willowdale 27% Windsor—Tecumseh 21% Windsor West 19% York Centre 35% York—Simcoe 50% York South—Weston 12% York West 10% Brandon—Souris 46% Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley 37% Churchill—Keewatinook Aski 7% Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa 47% Elmwood—Transcona 26% Kildonan—St. Paul 41% Portage—Lisgar 60% Provencher 54% Saint Boniface—Saint Vital 29% Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman 49% Winnipeg Centre 5% Winnipeg North 5% Winnipeg South 31% Winnipeg South Centre 20% Battlefords—Lloydminster 46% Cypress Hills—Grasslands 51%

27% 25% 20% 20% 43% 21% 34% 35% 43% 20% 19% 43% 16% 14% 37% 16% 36% 51% 20% 35% 34% 20% 22% 22% 20% 21% 48% 19% 28% 53% 49% 54% 20% 22%

19% 57% 59% 58% 45% 70% 52% 18% 22% 20% 30% 28% 58% 62% 24% 27% 48% 35% 27% 23% 56% 28% 48% 33% 13% 21% 18% 28% 58% 39% 17% 21% 31% 23%

5% 4% 5% 4% 7% 8% 6% 4% 7% 9% 7% 2% 5% 5% 4% 8% 5% 4% 7% 5% 3% 5% 4% 4% 7% 4% 4% 5% 8% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4%

99.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 41.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 81.2% 18.8% 2.4% 97.5% 100.0% 0.0% 97.4% 0.1% 0.8% 98.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 38.7% 60.9% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 98.3% 99.3% 0.0% 58.2% 41.4% 0.0% 0.4% 99.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 85.1% 0.1% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.5% 99.5% 99.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 95.5% 0.9% 99.1% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 58.3% 100.0% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 1.1% 100.0% 100.0% 0.4% 0.1% 94.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 99.6% 0.7% 99.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 100.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Sask. Alb.

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River 27% Humboldt—Warman—Martensville—Rosetown 49% Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan 41% Prince Albert 43% Regina—Lewvan 24% Regina—Qu'Appelle 35% Regina—Wascana 16% Saskatoon—Grasswood 32% Saskatoon—University 30% Saskatoon West 23% Souris—Moose Mountain 53% Yorkton—Melville 49% Banff—Airdrie 55% Battle River—Crowfoot 67% Bow River 67% Calgary Centre 39% Calgary Confederation 36% Calgary Forest Lawn 47% Calgary Heritage 57% Calgary Midnapore 58% Calgary Nose Hill 52% Calgary Rocky Ridge 51% Calgary Shepard 58% Calgary Signal Hill 48% Calgary Skyview 40% Edmonton Centre 24% Edmonton Griesbach 30% Edmonton Manning 34% Edmonton Mill Woods 36% Edmonton Riverbend 36% Edmonton Strathcona 16% Edmonton West 41% Edmonton—Wetaskiwin 59% Foothills 63%

21% 20% 20% 20% 22% 19% 57% 21% 24% 18% 22% 23% 13% 8% 9% 24% 23% 23% 13% 12% 17% 18% 13% 21% 33% 30% 14% 17% 19% 21% 9% 19% 11% 9%

48% 27% 35% 34% 50% 42% 23% 43% 42% 56% 21% 24% 24% 22% 21% 27% 28% 26% 25% 24% 25% 24% 24% 23% 23% 43% 54% 46% 43% 38% 73% 37% 26% 23%

4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 7% 4% 3% 10% 13% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 5% 8% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 2% 3% 4% 5%

67.0% 0.0% 33.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 99.9% 16.4% 0.0% 83.5% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 92.9% 6.4% 0.4% 93.3% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 96.6% 0.6% 2.7% 90.5% 0.8% 8.7% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84.9% 15.1% 0.0% 0.6% 3.1% 96.4% 0.2% 0.0% 99.8% 8.4% 0.0% 91.6% 21.4% 0.0% 78.6% 40.9% 0.0% 59.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 70.4% 0.0% 29.6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

BC

Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Grande Prairie Lakeland Lethbridge Medicine Hat Peace River—Westlock Red Deer—Mountain View Red Deer—Wolf Creek St. Albert—Edmonton Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan Sturgeon River Yellowhead Abbotsford Burnaby North—Seymour Burnaby South Cariboo—Prince George Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola Chilliwack—Hope Cloverdale—Langley City Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Courtenay—Alberni Cowichan—Malahat—Langford Delta Fleetwood—Port Kells Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo Kelowna—Lake Country Kootenay—Columbia Langley—Aldergrove Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon Nanaimo—Ladysmith New Westminster—Burnaby North Okanagan—Shuswap North Vancouver Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge

56% 61% 62% 40% 53% 62% 63% 61% 41% 48% 61% 62% 46% 18% 17% 37% 35% 39% 31% 30% 22% 24% 22% 22% 32% 38% 30% 39% 34% 21% 12% 35% 21% 29%

16% 9% 10% 15% 16% 9% 9% 9% 18% 16% 11% 8% 19% 30% 25% 15% 20% 21% 26% 22% 18% 17% 33% 30% 15% 21% 13% 23% 18% 18% 22% 17% 44% 19%

24% 27% 23% 41% 26% 25% 24% 26% 37% 31% 25% 25% 27% 45% 51% 39% 34% 32% 34% 40% 50% 49% 37% 42% 45% 29% 47% 29% 40% 51% 58% 34% 25% 44%

3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 8% 8% 7% 9% 11% 8% 9% 8% 10% 10% 9% 6% 8% 12% 10% 9% 8% 10% 8% 14% 9% 9%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 39.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 68.9% 99.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 49.3% 63.0% 93.0% 38.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 5.3% 94.8% 1.2% 95.6% 28.5% 0.0% 0.0% 65.3% 0.1% 2.5%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 5.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 28.2% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.5% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 31.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 98.0% 100.0% 50.7% 36.9% 7.0% 56.0% 91.0% 100.0% 100.0% 70.9% 96.1% 94.7% 5.1% 98.8% 4.2% 71.5% 100.0% 100.0% 34.7% 0.5% 97.5%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

BC Terr.

Port Moody—Coquitlam 20% 22% Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies 41% 15% Richmond Centre 31% 33% Saanich—Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca 18% 21% Saanich—Gulf Islands 16% 17% Skeena—Bulkley Valley 19% 13% South Okanagan—West Kootenay 25% 17% South Surrey—White Rock 28% 34% Steveston—Richmond East 28% 33% Surrey Centre 13% 32% Surrey—Newton 4% 48% Vancouver Centre 6% 42% Vancouver East 0% 21% Vancouver Granville 11% 43% Vancouver Island North—Comox—Powell River 23% 18% Vancouver Kingsway 8% 28% Vancouver Quadra 16% 54% Vancouver South 19% 47% Victoria 2% 22% West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky 20% Country 38% Yukon 23% 40% Western Artic 21% 25% Nunavut 39% 36%

50% 34% 27% 45% 18% 62% 47% 28% 32% 47% 41% 33% 68% 32% 51% 57% 21% 29% 49% 30% 17% 48% 22%

8% 9% 9% 16% 49% 6% 11% 10% 8% 7% 6% 19% 11% 13% 8% 7% 9% 5% 28% 12% 21% 5% 4%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use the federal vote intentions. ** winning=getting the most seats

0.0% 93.5% 44.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

0.0% 0.0% 47.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 67.4% 48.8% 1.4% 82.6% 90.7% 0.0% 94.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.7% 0.0% 87.1%

100.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 16.6% 0.0% 35.3% 0.0% 98.6% 0.0% 17.4% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0%